You will hear of wars and rumors of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed. Such things must happen, but the end is still to come. Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom.
Matthew, Chapter 24.
The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.
Sun Tzu, The Art of War
May 11, 2024
Russo Ukrainian War
Russian forces began an offensive operation along the Russian-Ukrainian border in northern Kharkiv Oblast on the morning of May 10 and made tactically significant gains. Russian forces are likely conducting the initial phase of an offensive operation north of Kharkiv City that has limited operational objectives but is meant to achieve the strategic effect of drawing Ukrainian manpower and materiel from other critical sectors of the front in eastern Ukraine. Russian forces have so far launched two limited efforts in the area, one north of Kharkiv City in the direction of Lyptsi and one northeast of Kharkiv City near Vovchansk. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense (MoD) reported that Russian armored assault groups of an unspecified size attempted to break through Ukrainian defenses near Vovchansk early in the morning and that fighting continued in the area after Ukrainian forces repelled the Russian assaults.[1] Russian and Ukrainian sources stated that Russian forces also began infantry-heavy assaults between Strilecha (north of Lyptsi) and Zelene (northeast of Lyptsi) on the night of May 9 to 10.[2] Russian and Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces significantly intensified airstrikes, shelling, and MLRS strikes against Ukrainian positions, logistics, and infrastructure ahead of and during Russian offensive operations in these areas.[3]
ISW
May 12, 2024
Russo Ukrainian War
Russian troops have seized Borysivka, Ohirtseve, Pylna and Strilecha in north east Ukraine. Russia claims to have taken Pletenivka as well, but Ukraine reports fighting in ongoing in Strilecha and Pletenivka, as well as Krasne, Morokhovets, Oliinykove, Lukyantsi and Hatyshche.
May 13, 2024
Russo Ukrainian War
Russia's defense minister Sergei Shoigu has been replaced with Andrei Belousov.
Ukraine warns northern front has ‘significantly worsened’
Middle Eastern War
Secretary of State Blinken made statements yesterday which were highly critical of Israel.
May 14, 2024
Russo Ukrainian War
Secretary Blinkin is in Ukraine
Russia gained ground in northeaster Ukraine again yesterday.
Ukraine is deploying reservists in the area, which gets to part of the extremely odd nature of the war. Ukraine has conscription, and has used it, but up until recently it didn't dip down to the lower 20s age bracket, and moreover almost all, or maybe all, of the troops it has deployed to the front are volunteers.
This is not true, of course, of Russia.
The US has banned imports of Russian uranium.
Middle Eastern War
Hamas conducted increased attacks in northern Gaza yesterday, demonstrating that it has the ability to reconstitute.
Cont:
China v. The West
Governor Gordon Expresses Support for Decision Blocking Chinese Bitcoin Operation From Owning Land Near FE Warren Air Force Base
CHEYENNE, Wyo. –Governor Mark Gordon has issued a statement supporting an order that prevents a Chinese-backed cryptocurrency mining firm from owning land near FE Warren Air Force base. The Governor’s statement follows:
“I am acutely aware and have been monitoring the concerns of surrounding property owners, as well as the potential threats to national security that this operation posed. I am pleased that the Administration recognized the potential threat and took steps to ensure the security of our military installations and the safety of Wyoming residents. Protection of our infrastructure remains paramount to protecting our national security and must always be our highest priority.
I am also grateful to Senator Nethercott for sponsoring SF077 -Homeland defense-infrastructure reporting and investigating to help protect Wyoming's critical infrastructure from foreign threats. I signed this bill, effective July 1, because it provides clear guidance and support to counties, under the Wyoming Office of Homeland Security, to investigate land sales near critical infrastructure.”
-END-
May 16, 2024
Middle Eastern War
The US humanitarian pier in Gaza has been completed.
Russo Ukrainian War
The Russian offensive northeast of Kharkiv has slowed.
May 17, 2024
Middle Eastern War
The U.S. House voted to force President Biden to send arms to Israel.
May 20, 2024
Democratic Republic of the Congo.
A coup attempt was put down over the weekend.
Iran
Iranian President and hardliner Ebrahim Raisi was killed in a helicopter crash with other members of the Iranian cabinet.
May 25, 2024
China v. Taiwan
Large-scale naval exercises by the PRC have ended.
Middle Eastern War
Egypt is allowing aid to Gaza to cross its border with the enclave.
Three US servicemen have been injured at the humanitarian pier.
Spain, Norway and Ireland said on Wednesday that they would recognize an independent Palestinian state.
May 26, 2024
Russo Ukrainian War
President Zelenskyy stated that the Ukrainians have obtained "combat control" over the areas where the Russians were recently on the offensive.
May 27, 2024
Middle Eastern War
Hamas fired rockets at Tel Aviv, they hit but did not cause any casualties. Israel responded with airstrikes.
June 2, 2024
Middle Eastern War
President Biden proposed an extended ceasefire in Gaza in exchange for a complete release of hostages. The proposal is causing turmoil in Israel itself.
June 3, 2024
Russo Ukrainian War
Strikes on infrastructure shut down most of the power grid in Ukraine.
June 5, 2024
Russo Ukrainian War
In Crimea, Ukraine is beating Russia
The Russian military has been decimated. You don’t write about that. It’s been freaking decimated.
Joe Biden to Time magazine.
June 6, 2024
Russo Ukrainian War
Message for U.S. Citizens: Elimination of “Residence Abroad” Exception to Dual Citizen Departure
Date: June 4, 2024
Location: Ukraine (countrywide)
Event: The U.S. Embassy in Kyiv understands that, effective June 1, Ukraine has eliminated a “residence abroad” exception that previously allowed certain Ukrainian males aged 18 to 60 to depart the country. After this change, U.S.-Ukrainian dual citizens, including those who live in the United States, may no longer be able to depart the country.
Ukrainian law does not recognize dual citizenship. U.S.-Ukrainian dual citizens are therefore treated solely as Ukrainian citizens while in Ukraine and are subject to the rights and obligations of Ukrainian citizens. Under Ukraine’s martial law, men between the ages of 18 and 60 are not permitted to leave the country. Previously, dual U.S.-Ukrainian citizens in this group could enter and then depart Ukraine if they had deregistered their Ukrainian residency and registered their U.S. residency. According to our information, this exception was revoked as of June 1.
The U.S. Embassy is limited in our ability to influence Ukrainian law, including the application of martial law and the mobilization law to Ukrainian citizens. If you are in Ukraine and cannot leave the country, shelter in place and obey all local orders. If you are not currently in Ukraine, we strongly recommend against all travel to Ukraine by U.S. citizen males aged 18 to 60 who also have Ukrainian citizenship or a claim to Ukrainian citizenship and who do not wish to stay in Ukraine indefinitely. There is an extremely high risk you will not be allowed to depart, even with a U.S. passport.
We remind all Americans of the State Department’s Level 4: Do Not Travel warning for Ukraine. For further information, see State Department websites for what you should know as a dual citizen traveler, and what we can and cannot do during a crisis.
Assistance:
U.S. Embassy Kyiv
+380 44 521 50 00
kyivacs@state.gov
https://ua.usembassy.gov/
State Department – Consular Affairs
+1-888-407-4747 or +1-202-501-4444
Ukraine Country Information
Enroll in the Smart Traveler Enrollment Program (STEP) to receive alerts
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Mexican Border Crisis
June 7, 2024
Middle Eastern War
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu will address Congress on July 24 which is probably a phenomenally bad idea.
The U.S. has imposed sanctions on the West Bank Palestinian organization the Lion's Den.
Russo Ukrainian War
The US is sending $225M in military aid to Ukraine through Presidential draw down authority.
June 10, 2024
Middle Eastern War
An Israeli raid freed 4 hostages, but resulted in the deaths of 274 Palestinians.
June 11, 2024
Russo Ukrainian War
The Russian offensive in the north has failed and some ground has been retaken by the Ukrainians.
A Ukrainian offensive in the south has retaken ground held by the Russians since the beginning of the war.
June 16, 2024
Russo Ukrainian War
A peace summit has convened in Switzerland, but as the Russians are absent, there's little chance that anything will be accomplished.
June 17, 2024
Russo Ukrainian War
The conferenced called for Ukrainian territorial integrity to be the basis for peace.
Italian Prime Minister Meloni stated: "Defending Ukraine means uniting all the efforts of the international community to protect Ukraine. If Russia does not agree to Ukraine's terms, we will force it to surrender. We need to set the minimum conditions for this discussion."
Middle Eastern War
The Israeli war cabinet has been dissolved.
Israel is pausing fighting along a humanitarian route during daytime hours.
June 18, 2024
Russo Ukrainian War
Interesting set of Russian dismissals and replacements:
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 17, 2024
June 22, 2024
Russo Ukrainian war
The Russians are making extensive use of retrofitted "dumb bombs" converted into glide bombs. The press is treating this as a new weapon, but it is not. Readers here will recall reading about the deployment of the Fritz X German guided glide bomb at Anzio, which was also a devastating weapon.
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