Wars and Rumors of War, 2024. Part 8. Wider wars.

You will hear of wars and rumors of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed. Such things must happen, but the end is still to come. Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom.

Matthew, Chapter 24.

There is no hunting like the hunting of man, and those who have hunted armed men long enough and liked it, never care for anything else thereafter.

Ernest Hemingway.

August 7, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukrainian troops have advanced into Russia's Kursk Oblast and are in their second day of operations there.

August 8, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Rockets from northern Gaza have lead to an Israeli advisory in the area that residents should leave.

An arrest of ISIL terrorist who were plotting a strike in a European Taylor Swift concert lead to cancellation of events.

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukrainian forces have made confirmed advances up to 10 kilometers into Russia's Kursk Oblast amid continued mechanized offensive operations on Russian territory on August 7. Geolocated footage published on August 6 and 7 shows that Ukrainian armored vehicles have advanced to positions along the 38K-030 route about 10 kilometers from the international border.[1] The current confirmed extent and location of Ukrainian advances in Kursk Oblast indicate that Ukrainian forces have penetrated at least two Russian defensive lines and a stronghold.[2] A Russian insider source claimed that Ukrainian forces have seized 45 square kilometers of territory within Kursk Oblast since they launched the operation on August 6, and other Russian sources reported that Ukrainian forces have captured 11 total settlements, including Nikolaevo-Daryino (1.5 kilometers north of the Sumy Oblast border), Darino (three kilometers north of the Sumy Oblast border), and Sverdlikovo (east of the Nikolaevo-Darino-Darino area), and are operating within Lyubimovka (eight kilometers north of the Sumy Oblast border).

ISW.

August 9, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Russia has declared a Federal level emergency due to the incursion near Kursk.  Ukrainian advances have been fairly extensive.

August 10, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukrainian advances have resulted in evacuation orders being issued and the formation of some local anti government partisan units seeming to have formed.

August 15, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

The Ukrainians have taken the Russian town of Sudzha in the Kursk Oblast.

cont:

And now the Ukrainians are in Belgorod Oblast, south of Kursk Oblast, and directly north of Kharkov.

Resistance was strengthening in opposition to the offensive in Kursk, so they've side stepped it.

August 16, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Russia jailed dual US/Russian citizen ballerina  Ksenia Khavana for a $52.00 donation to a charity aiding Ukraine.

Indian has asked its citizens who live near the conflicts zones to relocated:

In view of the recent security incidents in Bryansk, Belgorod and Kursk regions, Indian nationals are advised to take necessary precautions and relocate outside these regions.  Any Indian national or student requiring assistance may contact the embassy.

Russian forces are attempting to encircle Ukrainian forces southeast of Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast.  While Ukrainian forces are on the offensive in Russia, Russian forces remain on the offensive in Ukraine.

August 17, 2024

Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States finalized a  trade agreement removing export barriers on defense goods and technology between them.

August 22, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Russian mercenary leader Georgy Zakrevsky has called for Putin to be removed.

August 25, 2024

ISIL v Everyone

ISIL claimed responsibility for a knife attack in Solingen, Germany, that killed three people and wounded eight others at a claiming the murder targeted Christians and did this to avenge Muslims and Palestinians everywhere, as if doing that in Germany would make a lick of sense whatsoever.

Middle Eastern War

Israel has been conducting air strikes in Gaza 

It conducted massive ones in southern Lebanon, to which Hezbollah responded with rockets.

I suspect that Israel is hitting targets heavily in advance of an anticipated cease fire.

cont:

Actually, the strike in Lebanon was a preemptive strike.

August 28, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukraine reports that Russia has lost over 600,000 men in its war with the country, of which over 180,000 were killed.

By way of a contrast, 58,220 Americans were killed in the Vietnam War.

The Russians have been advancing rapidly near Pokrovsk and are generally sustaining offensive operations in Ukraine.

September 4, 2024

China v. Taiwan

In a recent interview, the president of the Republic of China (Taiwan) suggested that the People's Republic of China, rather than bothering Taiwan, ought to cast its eyes on land that it lost to Russia in the 1850s and 1860s.

If it is for the sake of territorial integrity, why doesn’t it take back the lands occupied by Russia that were signed over in the Treaty of Aigun? Russia is now at its weakest, right? You can ask Russia (for the land back) but you don’t. So it’s obvious they don’t want to invade Taiwan for territorial reasons.

Here's the territory he referenced:

That's a lot of territory.

From the way it was said, I think the remark was meant to be flippant, rather than serious, but it does raise a real question which is, with Russia so weak, will China look north?

September 5, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Belarus scrambled fighters to shoot down Russian drones that invaded its airspace.

September 9, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Russian drones have entered Latvian and Romanian airspace within the past few days.

September 10, 2024

China v. India

Chinese special forces penetrated into India for up to 30 miles and stayed there for several days.  China and India's border is disputed.

September 11, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Apparently getting a big positive reaction in Poland:

Why don't you tell the 800,000 Polish Americans right here in Pennsylvania how quickly you would give up for the sake of favor, and what you think is a friendship with a dictator who would eat you for lunch?

Kamala Harris to Donald Trump in last night's debate.  Trump claimed he'd end the war, if elected, as President Elect, which a person would have to be an absolute idiot to believe. 

September 16, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Poland's foreign minister suggested ending social benefits for Ukrainian men living in Europe, which the Ukrainian government agreed with.  The goal would be to boost pressure on military aged men to return to the country and be available for military service.

September 17, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Pagers carried by Hezbollah operatives in Lebanon exploded at about the same time Tuesday afternoon injuring over 2,700 and killing eight.

Yikes.

September 18, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

A "massive" Ukrainian drone strike on Russian munitions' and fuel depots in Toropets, Tver, Russia has set things ablaze and resulted in a partial evacuation of the region.

For reference, this area is northwest of Moscow.

September 19, 2024

Middle Eastern War

And yesterday it occured again with two way radios.

September 20, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Israel launched major airstrikes in Lebanon directed at Hezbollah.  

The strikes against Hezbollah actually have received street level support in Arab countries, with Northern Syrian troops even passing out candy in celebration of the event in northern Syria.

Russo Ukrainian War

Putin rejected a request to mobilize made by senior Russian military leaders.  Knowing why Putin does what is hard to fathom, but speculation runs from a fear what it would do to the economy, to a fear what the public reaction would be.

On the latter, Ukraine is rapidly starting to resemble the US participation in the Vietnam War in some ways, and its notable that the US called up very few reservists in that conflict.

It became unpopular anyway, of course.

September 22, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Hezbollah retaliated with a massive rocket attack into Israel.  Israel responded with hundreds of airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon.

Israel closed down the Al Jazeera bureau in Gaza.

September 25, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Israel is calling up reservists and deploying them in the north in anticipation of a ground invasion of Lebanon.

September 29, 2024.

Middle Eastern War

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was killed in an Israeli airstrike.

October 1, 2024.

Middle Eastern War

Israel has commenced raids within Lebanon.

cont:

Iran struck Israel with missiles in retaliation.

October 6, 2024.

Middle Eastern War

Israel had expanded its missile campaign in Lebanon, hitting Hezbollah targets near Beirut and a Hamas target in northern Lebanon.

It's also reengaged in ground operations in Gaza.

October 8, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

The Ukrainians launched a major strike on a Russian petroleum facility on Crimea.

Somebody has launched a major cyber attack on Russian state media yesterday.

October 21, 2024.

Middle Eastern War

Israel has started targeting Hezbollah's financial wing, al-Qard al-Hassan, which operates as a cash based bank, in strikes in Lebanon.

October 22, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Where the money is:

https://x.com/i/status/1848438591409819750

October 23, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Israel killed major Hamas figure Yahya Ibrahim Hassan Sinwar.

Russo Ukrainian War

North Korea is sending large numbers of troops to Russia to fight against Ukraine.

October 23, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Israel conducted strikes on Iranian targets.

Russia has been supplying targeting information to the Houthis.

cont:

The Israeli airstrike was an actual air raid, with no losses.

The route is unclear, but this would involve overflights of at least three countries.  It shows Iranian air defenses to be completely anemic.

October 28, 2024

Russia

Possible Russian Gains in Georgia and Moldova

October 31, 2024

The war on ISIL

The US condcuted airstrikes on ISIL targets in Syria this week.

November 4, 2024

Russia v. The West

Western security officials say they believe that two incendiary devices, shipped via DHL, were part of a covert Russian operation that ultimately aimed to start fires aboard cargo or passenger aircraft flying to the U.S. and Canada, as Moscow steps up a sabotage campaign against Washington and its allies.

The devices ignited at DHL logistics hubs in July, one in Leipzig, Germany, and another in Birmingham, England. The explosions set off a multinational race to find the culprits.

Wall Street Journal. 

November 9, 2024

Iran v. the West.

Iranian agents were plotting to kill Donald Trump, but the plot was foiled by the FBI.  The plot was supposed to be put together quickly, and then if that could not be achieved, revived after the election, which they rationally expected him to lose.

November 18, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War.

The U.S. has approved use of the Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMs for Ukrainian strikes inside of Russia. This comes in response to Russian mustering of thousands of North Korean troops.

November 20, 2024

Russia and China v. The West

The Danish Navy boarded the Chinese-flagged bulk carrier Yi Peng 3, captained by a Russian, after it was suspected of damaging two undersea telecom cables in the Baltic Sea..

November 21, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Reports this morning hold that Russia hit Dnipro with an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).  If correct, its the first such use of an ICBM in history and would be an unconscionable escalation of the conflict.

November 23, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

The missile turns out to be a new intermediate range experimental Russian missile.

A North Korean general has been wounded in a Ukrainian missile attack near Kursk.

November 26, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Saudi Arabia is considering dropping the price of oil to $49/bbl to crush the Russian export oil market.

It'd crush the American one as well, which is pretty much what a new Trump administration would deserve, as would those oil producing states voting for him.

NPR Politics podcast on where the war may be headed, in light of the election of Trump:

Before leaving office, Biden wants to keep helping Ukraine

November 28, 2024

Middle Eastern War

A cease fire has been brokered by the US and France between Israel and Hezbollah.  This will require Hezbollah to withdraw, in Lebanon, north of a line in southern Lebanon.

It's worth noting that the Lebanese Army has largely sat the recent conflict out, probably hoping that Israel would destroy Hezbollah.  This agreement won't be good for Lebanon.

December 2, 2024

Syrian Civil War

A Sunni jihadist rebel group supported by Turkey has made serious gains, taking Aleppo in recent days.  In no small part this is due to the degrading of Russian support for the Syrian government and the degrading of Iranian support by Israel.  

This isn't, ironically, necessarily good news, as there's no reason to believe this group is democratic, or will bey sympathetic to Syrian minorities.

December 3, 2024

South Korea

In a bizarre episode South Korea was under martial law for a day, the President accusing the main opposition party of having communist sympathizers.  Parliament reversed his decision.

December 4, 2024

Syrian Civil War

The Russian Navy is evacuating naval assets from its base in Tartus, Syria,

December 6, 2024

Syrian Civil War

Syrian rebels took Hama, and appear likely to take Homs, in a drive that apparently seeks to sever Syria from the sea.

December 7, 2024

Syrian Civil War

Iran is withdrawing its troops from Syria, stating:

Iran is starting to evacuate its forces and military personnel because we cannot fight as an advisory and support force if Syria's army itself does not want to fight,  Iran has realized that it cannot manage the situation in Syria right now with any military operation and this option is off the table.

Rebels took Daraa and Sweida and the revolution is generally spreading everywhere.

Related threads:

The conflict in Lebanon. A few items.

Last edition:

Wars and Rumors of War, 2024. Part 7. Undermined.

Labels: Black Sea, Bolivia, Bolivian Army, Haiti, Israel, Israeli Hamas War, Joseph Biden, Kenya, Russia, Russian Navy, Russo Ukrainian War, Sun Tzu, Ukraine, War, Wars and rumors of wars, Yemen

An open letter to South Korean Parliamentarians on the occasion of their heroism.

Dear South Korean Parliamentarians,

Thank you for standing up for democracy, unlike those in a major party in another nation I could name.

Truly, you are heroes.

Yeoman

존경하는 대한민국 국회의원 여러분

제가 언급할 수 있는 다른 나라의 주요 정당과 달리 민주주의를 옹호해 주셔서 감사합니다.

진실로 여러분은 영웅입니다.

자작농

Thursday August 15, 1974. An attempted South Korean assassination.

South Korean, Japanese born, North Korean sympathizer, Mun Se-gwang attempted to assassinate South Korea's President Park Chung Hee but instead killed Yuk Young-soo, age 48, Park's wife.

In the ensewin gun battle Jang Bong-hwa, a member of a high school choir performing at the event, was killed. 

After the shooting and Mun's arrest, President Park resumed his address, which hardly seems appropriate.

Park composed the following poem in her honor:

Like a Long Magnolia Blossom Bending to the Wind

Under heavy silence

Of a house in mourning

Only the cry of cicadas

Maam, maam, maam

Seem to long for you who is now gone

Under the August sun

The Indian Lilacs turn crimson

As if trying to heal the wounds of the mind

My wife has departed alone

Only I am left

Like a lone magnolia blossom bending to the wind

Where can I appeal

The sadness of a broken heart

Last edition:

Wednesday, August 14, 1974. Second Turkish invasion of Cyprus.

Labels: 1570s, 1571, 1970s, 1974, Ancient Greece, Cyprus, Greece, Hirohito, Japan, North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Ottoman Empire, Terrorism, Turkey, Turkish invasion of Cyprus

Wars and Rumors of War, 2024. Part 3. The Putin's Cheerleaders Edition.

February 13, 2024

You will hear of wars and rumors of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed. Such things must happen, but the end is still to come. Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom.

Matthew, Chapter 24.

If your position is being cheered by Vladimir Putin, it’s time to reconsider your position.

Mitt Romney

Mitt Romney, whom I did not care much for as a Presidential candidate, has gone on to be an absolute hero in the Senate.  It's tragic that he's leaving this year.

Equally tragic is that the once pro defense Republican Party has not only retreated into isolationism, it's gone into America First isolationism, last seen advanced by the likes of the Bund and Lindbergh just prior to World War Two. 

February 15, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

The Ukrainians sank the Caesar Kunikov amphibious ship near Alupka with naval drones.

North Korea v. South Korea

North Korea announced that it will take a more aggressive approach to disputed waters near its border with South Korea.

Myanmar

Myanmar announced it will begin to commence its citizens, male and female, to fill a 60,000 man shortage.

February 17, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Avdiivka has fallen to the Russians after months of fighting.

Ukrainian forces withdraw from Avdiivka

Severe ammunition shortages are becoming a factor in Ukraine, something that has set in since Republicans following Putin Fan Boy Donald Trump's views have held up aid.

Germany and France both signed bilateral security agreements with Ukraine on February 16.

Ukraine says it shot down three Russian combat jets

Putin was bragging up the T-90

 

Putin calls T-90M “best tank in the world”

M'eh

And now the Russian Navy.

Russian Navy top admiral shakeup follows new defeat in Black Sea

2011 Navalny designed poster about Putin's United Russia party, declaring it to be a "party of crooks and thieves".

Alexei Navalny became the latest Putin opponent in Russia, or outside of it, to die under mysterious circumstances. The 47-year-old politician reportedly collapsed in a penal colony, where he was serving a sentence for "extremism".  Trump mouthpiece Lord Haw Haw Carlson excused the death in an interview.

February 18, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War.

A series of rising reactions to the failure of the US to provide ongoing aid to Ukraine is resulting in ramping pressure on the weak Leader of the House, Mike Johnson.

Johnson came into office declaring himself on a mission from God (literally) but so far he's pretty much been a puppet of Trump's, the strings being his extraordinarily weak position, one that is now even weaker as Santos was predictably replaced with a Democrat.  Between the refusal to act on the border due to Trump and Ukraine, there's frankly a pretty good chance, in my view, that the Democrats might flip the House in the fall.

At any rate, we'd first note that Congress went on vacation without acting.  President Zelenskyy commented that dictators did not go on vacation.

President Biden urged Congress to act.

Vice President Harris pledged US support.

National Review has an editorial aimed at Johnson urging he get off his duff and do something.

A bill in the House provides 47.7 billion for Ukraine, $10.4 billion for Israel, with has strong House report for some interesting reasons, $4.9 billion for the Indo Pacific, including Taiwan and $2.4 billion for supporting U.S. Central Command operations, including funding to offset efforts to deter Houthi

militant attacks in the Red Sea.

Matt Gaetz stated: ". . . I think that is a lot more significant to my constituents than which dude gets to run Crimea"

Presumably one of those things is getting conscripted when Poland and the Baltic States are invaded, which may well be coming, and fighting the first real toe to toe, peer to peer war, since World War Two.

About 400 Russians have been arrested for attending Navalny memorials.

Mexican Border Crisis

Democrats are also exploiting the GOP's Trump ordered failure to act on the border by exploiting the topic, which is now becoming an asset for them.

February 19, 2024

Hamas Israeli War

Israel set a deadline for the start of Ramadan in which it will invade Rafah if its hostages are not freed.

That would be March 10.

While seemingly missed, this may be a change in position towards a negotiated resolution of the conflict, as prior to this Israel has essentially taken the position that it will not be restrained, no matter what.

Papua New Guinea Tribal Warfare

53 people were killed in intertribal warfare on Papua.

February 20, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

I don’t like this reality. Vladimir Putin is an evil war criminal.Vladimir Putin will not lose this war.

Mike Johnson last week.  Lindbergh said the same thing about Hitler.

Defecting Russian helicopter pilot Maxim Kuzminov was murdered in Spain.

Donald Trump posted that somehow the death of a Russian opposition leader who was put in a gulag by his Trump's buddy Putin, was sort of about him.

February 21, 2024

Hamas Israeli War

The US vetoed a cease fire resolution in the UN.

February 22, 2024

Trump in a Fox News interview stated, regarding nuclear war, the following:

I worry about their safety too. These people, everyone in this room is in great danger. We have a nuclear weapon that if you hit New York, South Carolina is gone

FWIW, and Trump is receiving criticism on this, the yield of a nuclear weapon is sufficient by a long measure to destroy South Carolina from a strike in New York.  Prevailing wind patters, also, would not carry the fallout there.

Anyhow, I'm noting this here as a recent item on NPR's Politics discussed Trump's fear of nuclear war, which apparently is very pronounced. 

I don't give Trump credit for deep thought s on very much.   The Internet has allowed a lot of those in the shallow end of the pool to have voice as if they know what they're talking about, and frankly I'd include Trump in those in the shallow end of the pool.  But apparently nuclear war is one thing he actually thinks about and has opinions on, and he's afraid of it.

That doesn't really surprise me too much.

Trump came of age in in the 1960s which was at a time that the fear of nuclear war was quite pronounced.  It remained that way in the 1970s, and by the early 1980s I recall being forced to read  A Republic Of Grass. which urged that we surrender to the Soviet Union, essentially, right then and there rather than face the prospect of nuclear war, which lefties were certain Ronald Reagan was going to get us into.  I recall some on the right saying "there are worse things than death" in response to such things, which is harsh, but true.

But if your values end at yourself, maybe there aren't.

Russo Ukrainian War

Prominent Russian milblogger Andrei Morozov committed suicide after refusing Russian military command orders to delete his reports on high Russian casualty rates around Avdiivka.

Iranian sources told Reuters that the country provided hundreds of short-range ballistic missiles to Russia in early January. 

That certainly helps Russia, but it also shows that industrially its a shadow of the former USSR.

Putin gave a car to the North Korean Communist Monarch.

February 23, 224

Houthi's

The Houthis on sent shippers and insurers a formal notice of a ban on vessels they deem linked to Israel, the U.S. and UK from sailing in waters bordering Yemen. They also declared they are going to use submarine weapons.

Russo Ukrainian War

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that Ukraine has a right to use its Western-supplied weapons to defend itself against Russia, up to and including targeting sites within Russia.

February 24, 2024

Armenia is suspending its membership in Russia's Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).

February 25, 2024

Houthi's

The US and UK struck 18 Houthi targets yesterday.

Cont:

Russo Ukrainian War

In a speech marking the two-year point in the war, President Zylenskyy indicated 31,000 Ukrainian soldiers have lost their lives so far, which is actually about half of what I previously saw estimated some time ago.

Two separate measures are being introduced to provide aid to Ukraine that go around Mike Johnson, who has proven to be a Trump flunkie.

King Charles praised President Zylenskyy for his countrymen exhibiting something that Johnson is not, that being courage.

Nigeria

Fifteen Catholics were murdered at Sunday Mass.

February 26, 2024

Hamas v. Israel

The PM of Israel made it clear that it is Israel's intent to enter Rafah no matter what.  A ceasefire will merely delay that.

Russo Ukrainian War

Two separate discharge petitions to bring funding for Ukraine are being introduced into the House on different bills, one being the bill that has already passed the Senate.  There seems to be optimism that one of them, that being the unique House bill in particular, will pass in this end run around politically castrated Trump eunuch, Mike Johnson.

ISW reports that there were more Russians casualties taking Avdiivka, 47,000, than in the entire Soviet Afghan War.

February 29, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Russia has taken Stepove, seven miles northwest of Avdiivka. Ukrainian have pulled back from Stepove and the neighboring village of Sieverne.

Maybe the Russians will put up a monument to Mike Johnson there.

March 1, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

A Ukrainian missile strike killed 19 troops, injured 12 and Colonel Roman Kozhukhov, a respected commander in the occupied Donetsk in Ukraine.  They were at a medal ceremony.

Donald Trump's Minister of Propaganda, Tucker "Lord Haw Haw" Carlson, stated that Donald Trump's object of affection, Vlad Putin, was stating something "dumb" when he justified the assault on Ukraine on the object of denazification.

China v. Taiwan

The PRC Coast Guard patrolled prohibited and restricted waters around Taiwan-controlled Kinmen.

Mexican Border Crisis

Both President Biden and would be president Trump were on the Mexican border yesterday.

March 2, 2024

Hamas v. Israel

The United States is going to air drop humanitarian relief into Gaza.

Russo Ukrainian War

Transnistria, breakaway sliver of Moldova, which itself is a Cyrillic using region of Romania that's a separate country as the Russians oppose Moldova uniting with Romania, asked Russia for "protection" from Moldova.

March 3, 2024

Houthis v. the West

A fertilizer ship hit days ago by the Houthis has sunk.

Russo Ukrainian War

For unknown reasons, North Korean munitions shipments to Russia appear to have stopped.

Related Threads:

Tucker "Lord Haw Haw" Carlson on Leadership.

Last Prior Edition:

Wars and Rumors of War, 2024. Part 2. Only the dead

No More Puppy Chow. Cliffnotes of the Zeitgeist, 53d Edition.

South Korea has banned the production and sale of dog for human consumption.

Last Prior Edition.

Lame. Cliffnotes of the Zeitgeist, 52nd Edition.

Tuesday, January 8, 1974. Suppressing dissent and the news.

South Korean President Park Chung-hee  issued an emergency decree making it illegal "to deny, oppose, misrepresent, or defame" the president's decisions.  The same decree prohibited reporting on dissent  "through broadcasting, reporting or publishing, or by any other means."

He must have been concerned about "fake news".

Park started his adult life as an army officer in the Japanese puppet Manchukuo Imperial Army.  After serving a little over two years in that entity during World War Two, he returned to the Korean Military Academy and joined the South Korean Army.  He was a figure in the 1961 military coup in South Korea.  After large scale protests in 1979 he was assassinated by  Kim Jae-gyu, the director of the KCIA, and a close friend of his after a banquet at a safe house in Gungjeong-dong, Jongno-gu, Seoul. Kim Jae-gyu would be hanged the following year for the action.

The National Collegiate Athletic Association approved allowing amateur athletes to play as professionals in a second sport.

Watching the mule auction this past Sunday brought me to a possible explanation as to why so many Western legal organizations like to feature cowboys in their propoganda.

And that's because it's honest, and manly, work.

Cowboy, 1888.   This is, for some reason, how lawyers often tend to see themselves.

It was Bates v. State Bar of Arizona in which the United States Supreme Court destroyed the professionalism of the legal profession.  In that 5 to 4 decision, the Court found that a rule of the Arizona State Bar preventing advertising violated the First and Fourteenth Amendments. It further held that allowing attorneys to advertise would not harm the legal profession or the administration of justice.

They were wrong.

As was often the case in that era, the majority had its head up its butt.  In reality, advertising destroyed decades of work by the early 20th Century American Bar Association and drug the occupation of being a lawyer from that of a learned profession down to a carnival barker.

Recently I watched the Netflix uploaded episodes of the Korean television series The Extraordinary Attorney Woo (이상한 변호사 우영우). In it, every one addressed attorneys by their patronymic and the title "Attorney", even if they were personally familiar with them.  So, for example, every time somebody addressed the central protagonist, they did so as "Attorney Woo".   That struck me as odd, so I looked it up to see if that was correct, and found a Korean language site entry that stated off with a comment that was something like "unlike the United States, attorneys in Korea are a respected profession".

That struck me, as I hadn't really thought about it like that.  When I started off in this line of work, we were still somewhat regarded as respected professionals and its hard to forget that's now in the past.

The decline was in, however, already by that time.  When we were admitted to the bar, Federal Judge Court Brimmer gave a speech about civility in litigation.  I've heard versions of it many times since. When I first started practicing, advertising was just starting here, and it was the domain of plaintiff's lawyers for the most part.  It still is.

Bates got us rolling in this direction, but the flood of 60s and 70s vintage law school graduates did as well.  Too many lawyers with too little to do, expanded what could be done in court.  Lawyers have backed every bad cause imaginable in the name of social justice. That's drug the profession down.

How we imagine ourselves.

I think we know that, which is why I think we also go out of our way to associate ourselves with occupations that have real worth.  We like conventions featuring the West, both for defense and plaintiffs, rather than sitting in front of our computers in office buildings in Denver and Salt Lake City.

Nobody, that is, wants to go to the "2023 Sitting On Your Ass Asking Insurance Carriers For Money" conference.  No, we do not.  We want to go instead to the "2023 Blazing Saddles and High Noon Conference".  

But what are we really?

How everyone else sees us.

It's a real red meat question, but it needs to be asked.  To some extent, civil litigation started off as a substitute for private warfare.  But now?  Many people have asked if this is a virtuous profession, but beyond that is it, well, manly?

Many lawyers aren't men, of course.  But if there are occupations that exhibit male virtues and natures, is this one?

Our constant association of ourselves with occupations that do, and the use of language borrowed from fields that are, suggests we don't think so.

As we really are.

Tuesday, July 4, 1972. The Koreas ponder reunification.

North and South Korea announced that they had agreed to discuss reunification.  Their joint statement held:

The July 4 South-North Joint Communiqué

4 July 1972 

Recently, talks were held in Pyongyang and Seoul to discuss the problems of improving SouthNorth relations and of unifying the divided country. 

Lee Hu-rak, Director of the Central Intelligence Agency in Seoul, visited Pyongyang from May 2 - 5, 1972, and held talks with Kim Young-joo of the Organization and Guidance Department of Pyongyang; Vice Premier Park Sung-chul, acting on behalf of Director Kim Young-joo visited Seoul from May 29 - June 1, 1972, and held further talks with Director Lee Hu-rak. 

With the common desire of achieving the peaceful unification of the nation as early as possible, the two sides engaged in a frank and openhearted exchange of views during these talks, and made great progress towards promoting mutual understanding. 

In an effort to remove the misunderstandings and mistrust, and mitigate the heightened tensions that have arisen between the South and the North as a consequence of their long period of division and moreover, to expedite unification, the two sides reached full agreement on the following points. 

1. The two sides agreed on the following principles as a basis of achieving unification: First, unification shall be achieved independently, without depending on foreign powers and without foreign interference. Second, unification shall be achieved through peaceful means, without resorting to the use of force against each other. Third, a great national unity as one people shall be sought first, transcending differences in ideas, ideologies, and systems. 

2. In order to ease tensions and foster an atmosphere of mutual trust between the South and the North, the two sides have agreed not to slander or defame each other, not to undertake military provocations whether on a large or small scale, and to take positive measures to prevent inadvertent military incidents. 

3. In order to restore severed national ties, promote mutual understanding and to expedite independent peaceful unification, the two sides have agreed to carry out numerous exchanges in various fields. 

4. The two sides have agreed to actively cooperate in seeking the early success of the SouthNorth Red Cross talks, which are currently in progress with the fervent support of the entire people of Korea.

5. In order to prevent the outbreak of unexpected military incidents, and to deal directly, promptly, and accurately with problems arising between the South and the North, the two sides have agreed to install a direct telephone line between Seoul and Pyongyang. 

6. In order to implement the above items, to solve various problems existing between the South and the North, and to settle the unification problem on the basis of the agreed principles for unification, the two sides have agreed to establish and operate a South-North Coordinating Committee co-chaired by Director Lee Hu-rak and Director Kim Young-joo. 

7. Firmly convinced that the above items of agreement correspond with the common aspirations of the entire Korean people, all of whom are anxious for an early unification, the two sides hereby solemnly pledge before the entire Korean people to faithfully carry out these agreed items. 

Upholding the instructions of their respective superiors S

Lee Hu-rak 

Kim Young-joo

A similar communiqué has been issued at least one additional time.

Today, in 2022, prospects for reunification are dim, and frankly they may well be moving further, even permanently, apart.  In 1973 when this statement was issued, many Korean had lived in a unified state.  Now, many fewer have, and its becoming fewer every day.  South Korea is a modern, capitalist, democracy, and younger South Koreans have waning interest in reuniting with the communized backwards north.

The news of the day:

Am I the only one who finds Korean boy bands to be super creepy?

As in really creepy?

Frankly, I find Korean girl bands to be pretty creepy also.  

The other day an issue of People was laying around and I thumbed through it and found an article on a Korean K Pop girl band.  Really creepy. They're obviously the Bubble Gum of their day in a decade people will look back on them laughingly, with their assembled personalities and westernized pink hair, etc.  Indeed, people will probably find them uncomfortable.

But the boy bands?  Really creepy.

October 30, 1968: the Uljin-Samcheok Landings

On this day in 1968 the North Koreans landed a commando force on South Korean shores in an attempt to establish guerrilla bases in South Korea.  The attack was part of a delusional series of increasingly aggressive moves that grossly underestimated the lack of support for communists in South Korea.

The landings promoted a massive reaction in the South with 70,000 troops being deployed to counter the 124 commandos who landed and attempted to infiltrate South Korean villages.  110 of the force were killed.  Under 70 South Koreans, of which 23 were civilians, died in the event.  Three Americans lost their lives.

Coming in the hottest year of the war in Vietnam, and dating back to an attempted raid in January that coincided with the Tet Offensive, this event served to remind that the Korean War had ended in an armistice, not a true peace, and the North Korean effort continued; even violently.

Deal? What deal?

It may be just me, but I can't see where President Trump obtained any real deal in Singapore at all.

Promises, yeah well. . . Clinton and Obama had promises too.

A note. You can't declare the Korean War to be over unless. . .

you acknowledge it was a war in the first place.

Sounds silly, I know.  But wars only occur between sovereign states.

If the Korean Conflict, its official name, can be declared "over", it has to have been declared to begin, and that would require acknowledging that it was a war between two sovereign states.

Which has never been the case for North or South Korea.

Because if that's acknowledged, then the concept that there's one Korea is effectively over.  There would be two sovereign entities, each with a right to exist, in perpetuity. 

Sure, two sovereigns can unite.  But a unification would note be the official presumption. 

And changing that is a major change, should it occur.

War Warning

ROK M38A1 with recoiless rifle, 1987.

Senator Lindsay Graham, while maintaining his independence, has pretty clearly become the Trump Administrations voice from the Senate.

Which makes it really notable that last week Graham, in a news interview, flat out stated that the United States is heading towards military action against North Korea.

Graham left no room for doubt at all.  He did not equivocate.  If North Korea doesn't give up its nuclear weapons and the ability to make them, we are going to attack them.

Maybe it's blustering to get North Korean back to the table on American terms.  But it didn't sound like it, and I doubt that it is.

That doesn't make a war with North Korea, or rather a resumption of the Korean Conflict, inevitable.  But when things get started it takes two sides to stop them and only one to start them.  

And Graham, it might be noted, said this issue, North Korean nuclear weapons, will be resolved this term of office.

If its a bluff. . . .it's quite the bluff.

Which is perhaps why the North and South Korean heads of state met yesterday.

Stay nervously tuned.

Has Kim Jong-un been reading my blog?

Or perhaps the Chinese?

Something's up, that's for sure.

And whatever it is, may be good.

Yesterday Kim Jong-un met with South Korean president Moon Jae-in and declared that North Korea would cease developing nuclear weapons,* would work towards demilitarization and, essentially, that the armed conflict between North and South Korea was over.  He stepped in to South Korea as a guest.  Moon stepped into North Korea the same way.

All of which is a big deal, and that last item, the apparent end of a state of conflict (it's technically not a war as that would require recognition of North Korea's government as legitimate) is particularly a big deal.  That would amount to a declaration that a nearly seventy year long effort to conquer South Korea by armed force and unite it under the red banner was over.  That doesn't mean that either state has declared that its giving up on the concept of a united Korean peninsula, but it sort of points in that direction in a way, maybe.

So what's up?

That's nearly impossible to say, but here on this blog we've long speculated that the communist leadership in the north would collapse in some fashion, with that fashion probably being a Chinese backed coup.  We've also speculated that the Chinese might warn Kim Jong-un to cool it prior to that time, or even order him to work towards a peaceful reunification of the peninsula based upon the Finlandization of the country, in a reunited form, under a democratic leadership with American withdrawal from the country. . . something we'd likely agree to in that context.  And there's any number of close variants to this scenario that could occur.

And Kim was recently in China.

Hmmm. . . .

I wonder what was said at those meetings?

Stay tuned for further developments. . . . 

____________________________________________________________________________________

*On their program, there's been recent rumors that a catastrophic tunnel collapse may have set it back quite a ways. Those were rumors, but the other day the Stars and Stripes was running it as an established fact.

If that occurred, there'd be a real question of how it occurred.  Simple accident?  Very well could be.  U.S. clandestine action?  Also possible.  Chinese clandestine action?  Perhaps even more probable.  Maybe Kim is wondering what the cause of this was himself.  Maybe the Chinese suggested a cause. . irrespective of whether they were the source of the it or knew themselves.

Where I attended Easter Mass, 1987

 

The Catholic Church were I attended Easter Mass in 1987 in South Korea.

Hoping you are having a joyous Easter in 2017.

North Korea keeps on perfecting its ICBM

Uff, this year won't end soon enough. 

Of course, that takes the naive view that with the end of the year, the end of the year's bad news comes as well.

Probably not.

Anyhow, North Korea has tested an ICBM that can probably hit anywhere in the United States.

Just a few months ago, when the Dear Leader first tested an ICBM the denial of this was so strong that one forum I noted on this drew an immediate response from somebody declaring that North Korea had not developed an ICBM.  Heck, they'd just tested one.

This is a huge, immediate, problem. 

We've ignored this for years and years.  Starting really with Clinton the North Korean progression towards a nuclear weapon, and the capability to deliver it, has been pretty obvious.  Of course, the first Presidents to deal with it, or not, had more of an excuse.  It was further away.  Maybe the whole thing could be diverted.

By President Obama's term it was pretty evident that the crisis was becoming immediate.  Of course, he had plenty of crises on his hands.  And now it's nearly fully developed, and we have President Trump, whom many feel rather uncomfortable with in this context.

Well, this is going to be a test of President Trump, and for that matter the United States, South Korea, Japan, China and Russia.  Let's hope we all pass the test, whatever that means.

Was the Domino Theory Right?

One of the interesting things about the podcast that followed the Burns and Novik Vietnam War documentary is that Burns is interviewed and openly questions whether his pre documentary belief that The Domino Theory was ridiculous was in error.

That surprised me a bit as the documentary doesn't address the theory much other than to note that it was a basis for our going into Vietnam.

I've written on the Domino Theory here before, more specifically in my 2013 post on Looking at the Vietnam War differently. Not a war, but as a campaign in the Cold War.  In that post I urged that the Vietnam War should be looked at as a campaign in the Cold War in order to be viewed historically accurately.  That post came, of course, nearly four years ago and I doubt that very many people search back for post that old here very often (I suppose some might surf into it and I know that occurs with some of our older posts), but in the interesting of not repeating too much what I already have said, I'll quote at length from that post (although, please note, I'm not quoting the whole post):

This brings us back to the "Domino Theory", which was that the if any nation in Southeast Asia fell they'd all fall, one after another.  The general theory is that they'd fall all the way to India, in all likelihood.

As noted, I'm not quoting from the entire 2013 post here.   So perhaps I should flesh that out.  I did so a bit in that post when I noted:

It’s easy to dismiss the Domino Theory now, although erroneously in my view, but at the time dominoes really were falling.  One giant one fell, China, and another one, South Korea, nearly tipped over almost immediately thereafter.  With that history, with Communist insurgencies breaking out all over South East Asia, and with a big huge Communist neighbor behind nearly all of them, geographically, starting in 1947 things looked pretty darned grim. 

Let's still flesh that out just a bit.

The idea was, and it was based on prior experience, that once one nation fell to the Communist that put pressure on its neighbors, particularly if the fallen nation was in a strategic area and particularly if there was already Communist activity in the region.

This idea, following Vietnam, was widely discredited.  But was it as absurd as many would now have us believe?  Many historical examples of the success of militant movements would suggest otherwise.  When the USSR was founded, for example, Communist revolutions did in fact spared to nearby states.  Hungary, for example, had one immediately after Russia and while it didn't succeed, it nearly did.  Germany's red revolution in the 1918-1919 time frame nearly did as well. 

Fascism provides a good example also.  It wasn't as if Germany was the only state that went to the far right in the 1930s.  It was preceded by Italy and joined by Spain and Romania.  Arguably it was somewhat joined by France.  When fascism was on the rise, it wasn't on the rise in one state.  Even the United Kingdom and Ireland had fascists movements in the 1930s.

And before we get too far on the topic of the Vietnam War, let's consider Asia as a whole.

Southeast Asia.  It's big. . . but more connected when you take a little higher view.

One of the things that missed in discussions on the Vietnam War, and it was missed in the Burns and Novik documentary, is that it was Australia that was demanding Western powers get into the Indochinese War after France fell there, not the United States at first.  Australia was begging the US to get in and threatened the Kennedy Administration with going it alone if the US wouldn't go.  In retrospect, maybe we should have allowed for that.  Australia had thinner resources but it also had more experience in fighting guerrilla was in the jungle than we did.

Australian soldiers of the Royal Australian Rifles in Vietnam.

They weren't the only nation concerned about what they were seeing, of course, but looking at the map, and recalling World War Two, you can see why the Australians were particularly concerned.

 Royal Australian Rifles in Vietnam. We didn't ask them to come. ..  they asked us.

Stepping back a second, and before considering the validity of the theory itself, you can at least see why there was legitimate concern about it.  China had emerged from a long civil war in 1948 with the Red Chinese the surprise victors.  Everyone would have presumed, to include Stalin, that the Nationalist Chinese would come out on top.  They didn't, and of course, its now clear that one of the many straws that broke that camels back (and there were many) was pretty effective efforts by Soviet agents to hinder and delay US resupply to the Nationalist Chinese.  That deprived them of effective resupply in some instances, but that doesn't explain what occurred in and of itself by a long shot.  Not that we're doing a history of the Chinese Civil War here.  Of interest, the Nationalist Chinese provided some air support to the South Vietnamese early during the Vietnam War and contributed some special troops, some of whom were killed in combat, to the South Vietnamese effort during the war.

 South Korean soldiers in Vietnam.  The ROK had a major military commitment to South Vietnam and late in the war appeared set to retain up to 50,000 troops in the country even after the United States was set to withdraw. American encouragement that they leave, during the "Vietnamization" program period, secured their departure.  "Soldiers of the ROK 9th Infantry Division in Vietnam. Photo by Phillip Kemp.  Photo taken by Phillip Kemp from cockpit after sling-loading water drums to outpost..jpg"  Posted pursuant to Wikepeidia license.  South Korea was second only to the United States in terms of the number of troops it sent to support the Republic of Vietnam.

Anyhow, China fell.  North Korean was left Communist following World War Two as part of an arraignment with the United States on post war occupation.  In 1950 that turned into a North Korean invasion of South Korea that was only halted at great costs to the United States and its allies, and only after the Truman Administration changed its mind about what was going on globally and regionally.  We'll pick up on that in a moment.

 Soviet troops marching into North Korea at the end of World War Two. They'd stay briefly, as would US troops in the South, and set up a state modeled on the USSR while they were there.  That nation would try to reunite the peninsula by armed force in 1950. 

And it wasn't just there.

The Philippines had presented the US with a domestic Communist guerrilla movement to contend with as the US was returning to them during World War Two.  Of the various anti Japanese guerrilla movements that sprung up during the war was the Hukbalahap, more commonly called the Huks.  Relationships with them were tense following the war as the Philippines moved towards independence and they broke out in full scale rebellion in 1949, the year after China fell.  The Philippine government managed to put them down with US military assistance and, significantly, through the co-opting of their movement by some rather brilliant men in the early CIA.  Even at that however, various Communist guerrilla movements continue on in the Philippines to the present day.

During the Vietnam War the Philippines would supply 10,000 non combat troops to aid South Korea.

Of course, as we've already noted, the British also contended with Communist guerrillas in Southeast Asia in the Malayan Emergency, which they successfully managed to counter in a combined policing and military operation that went on from. . .  yes, 1948, and lasted until 1960.

Malayan police patrol in 1950.

And then there was Burma.

Burma was a region which was, at first, largely happy to see the Japanese take over from the British during World War Two, but soon grew discontent with the Japanese. Some armed groups that supported the Japanese at first actually switched sides during the war.  This did not mean that they looked forward to the return of the British.  They country, now Myanmar, became independent in that fateful year of 1948 and did not join the English Commonwealth.  In 1962 a military coup brought the military into power and it chose to rule the country in a manner inspired by the Soviet Union to a significant degree.  The country even changed its name to the Socialist Republic of the Union of Burma.

Between Burma and Cambodia/Laos is Thailand. Thailand did not participate in World War Two and was not a colony of any nation during that period or any other.  It's the only nation in Southeast Asia that has never been colonized (it even sent an envoy to the Pope as early as 1688.) A monarchy, it had acquired Japanese military aid prior to World War Two, it was in a difficult spot during the war and more or less participated on both sides of the war, while technically, due to a declaration of war, was at war with the United States and the United Kingdom, after having fought briefly against Japan.  It's treaty with Japan provided that Japan would assist Thailand to reacquire territories lost to colonial powers on all sides of it, include to the French in what became Laos and Cambodia.

Following World War Two Thailand faced an encamped Nationalist Chinese army in its far north (for decades) and a domestic Communist insurgency that broke out in the 1960s.  Thailand would provide air bases to the United States during the Vietnam War and would ultimately contribute combat troops just as the United States started to withdraw. Thailand's commitment to the war would amount to 12,000 men just as the United States was pulling out, with their troops including contributions of elite units.

 Artillerymen from New Zealand's army in Vietnam.  New Zealand was still more English than the English the time, but unlike the UK or any European power (excluding France) they also sent troops to Vietnam. . . no doubt looking at their position on the globe.

That takes us to the Vietnam War.  Communist forces were not just active in South Vietnam or even North and South Vietnam. They were active in Laos, where they succeed after the fall of South Vietnam, and in Cambodia, where they also did. They were also active throughout Southeast and Central Asia.  Indeed, the Communist Party is still a political force in India.  So, no wonder:

And not only in our view, but in the view of nearly every Western nation.  The UK had been in nonstop combat against some Communist force since before the end of World War Two up through 1954, and at least Australia had been involved in two wars against Communist forces by the end of 1954.  The French had been involved in two such wars, one in Indochina, and had actually sought our aid there, but the British vetoed it (we were reluctant) as they felt, probably rightly, that the French had a hard time distinguishing the difference between a war against Communist insurgents and a war against French colonialism, with the latter being doomed even if the two efforts were mixed.

Looking at it that way, with Communist insurgencies breaking out everywhere in Asia, with the potentiality for more breaking out where they hadn’t already, and with a lot of the insurgencies seeming to be successful, it’d be hard to imagine Western nations regarding any of the wars as mere local affairs without global implications.  A person might ask “why Vietnam” but the answer might just be that it was Vietnam’s turn.  The British and Australians had already fought one war against Communist in Southeast Asia and it reasonably looked like not putting the fire out where it broke out would make things worse. Indeed, it almost certainly would have.  The Australians were, for their part, urging the US to take action in Vietnam before we did.  And in terms of the big Communist powers, China and the USSR, Vietnam did have a good deep water port which was strategic enough that the US had attacked it from the air,during WWII, when the Japanese occupied it.

Maybe the theory was, therefore, correct.  At least it seemed rational to believe it was, as we noted:

The question almost would have been whether to draw the line in Vietnam or somewhere else,with all the other somewhere else’s being increasingly bad choices.  I don’t really see how the war could have been avoided.

Indeed, I was less clear on the challenges faced in my earlier post than I have been in this one (which I researched on this topic a bit more).  During the early 1960s, when the Kennedy Administration was faced with trying to decide how much, and how, to support South Vietnam, it faced a situation in which nearly every country in the region had been challenged by a Communist insurgency and some had been successful while others had only been recently defeated by hard effort.

I went on from there in my original post to ponder what that meant, and I'll leave the reader to review that in the context of my Cold War analysis that I offered there, but I'll note that it started off with this:

And maybe the war, if considered a campaign in the Cold War, the campaign worked, although it certainly wasn't an unqualified success.  It would have been, rather, a type of extraordinarily long, and unintentional, delaying action.

This went on, and looked at the war in the context of a Cold War campaign.  You can judge for yourself whether I was right or wrong, or partially right or wrong on that, but I'm going to divert from quoting that post here to go on to the main point here.  That is, was the Domino Theory correct?

Well, the evidence would suggest. . . it was correct.

The proponents of the theory argued that if Vietnam fell (or continued to fall, as North Vietnam had fallen to Communism) then Laos, Cambodia, Thailand, Burma and India would all follows suit.

So how can you say that it was correct, critics (now) say, Thailand didn't fall the Communists?

That's right, Thailand didn't.  But you have noticed that Laos and Cambodia did, correct?

And they fell after South Vietnam, which is more than a little coincidental.  Both nations had been part of French Indochina and both had Communist movements in the 1940s, but neither fell to Communism until after Saigon fell in 1975.

Now, to be fair, Laos was falling in slow motion since the mid 1960s. . . or even the 1950s.  But something kept it from teetering completely over the edge.  That something was the war in South Vietnam.  North Vietnam was willing to dominate parts of the country and to force it into an uneasy neutrality but it apparently feared tipping it over the edge as that might have caused the United States to intervene full scale in Laos, rather than low scale as it was doing.

Pathet (Communist) Laotian troops, 1972.

That came to an end when the South collapsed in 1975. At that point, the North basically invaded Laos and forced it into Communism, where it remains. 

So, I suppose, a person could argue that it didn't fall, it was pushed.  The significant thing there, however, is that it wasn't pushed any earlier than that.

Cambodia wasn't pushed, it fought it out late in the Vietnam War and then fell to the Khmer Rouge as it received increased support, for awhile, from the North Vietnamese.  Cambodia had favored the Communist effort, slightly, during most of the Vietnam War but when its monarchy fell in a coup the Army chose to actively enter the Vietnam War, albeit on its own soil.  This turned into a fierce civil war and when the war went badly for the South Vietnamese in the end it went just as badly for Cambodia.  Like South Vietnam and Laos, it fell in 1975.

By that time, of course, Burma had already gone to its own odd brand of near Communism. Thailand was surrounded.

But nobody else fell. So surely that means that the Domino Theory was wrong, correct?

Well, that''s hard to tell, in the end.  What we do know is that nearly every Southeast nation fought a war against a communist insurgency.  Some were successfully fought, some were not.  A person might argue that the long war in Indochina gave other nations that had already fought a war against Communist insurgents the chance to consolidate politically so that their wars would not renew.  Arguably the war in Thailand failed as it came too late, after the Thai government had been given an extra decade to plan against it and to have cut its teeth on the war in Vietnam.

Of course, you can argue it the other way around.  After the North Vietnamese won against the South and then intervened with finality in Laos, they ended up invading Communist Cambodia and fighting a guerrilla war against the Khmer Rouge.  China invaded North Vietnam and was thrown back.  The rift between Chinese Communism and Soviet Communism proved to be pretty bitter and the respective allies of those nations would fight amongst themselves.  North Vietnam proved to be highly Soviet at first, but it was never a Soviet puppet and ultimately, would be forced to later abandon much of its hardcore economic Communist that it espoused.  Cambodia would reemerge from Vietnamese rule as a free state and a royal one at that, no longer Communist. So things didn't work out they way they were hoped for or feared for anyone.

None of which answers the question. Was the Domino Theory correct?  It's impossible to say, but even now, the evidence suggests it might have been.