April 10, 2025
On April 2, Trump, using bogus emergency powers, imposed an insane tariff regime on nearly every country in the world, save for Russia, based on trade imbalances, showing a juvenile understanding of that topic at best.
This caused markets to crash and the economy to head to what might optimistically have been a recession, and perhaps more realistically a depression.
Yesterday the tariffs were paused for 90 days, save for the ones on China, the latter of which has retaliated with a 104% tariff on US goods.
Earlier tariffs imposed on Canada and Mexico, and a 10% tariff imposed on everyone, remain.
This policy is still disastrous, simply less so than the really steep tariffs that Trump had claimed were permanent, and then which turned out to perhaps not be after foreign holders began to dump US bonds.
And so here we are.
Congress has the power to end this madness as it has delegated these completely bogus emergency powers to the Red Caesar, but it won't as the national GOP is now some sort of strange Peronist/Authoritarian party dedicated to extremism. The roller coaster ride isn't over, it's just on some lower bends. The whims and beliefs of one man now hold the global economy in peril.
Highly relevant to Wyoming:
Despite the strong relief rally on Wednesday, following President Trump’s 90-day pause of tariff hikes on most countries except China, the U.S. benchmark oil price is now lower than the breakeven for the shale industry to profitably drill a new well.
OilPrice.com
Cont:
Speaker of the House Johnson had to pull the budget bill from consideration due to right wing concerns over the deficit, which are rightly placed. Apparently as of this morning he has enough votes to advance the bill.
Cont:
After massively rallying late yesterday, stocks are once again dropping this morning.
Cont:
The Dow closed 1,000 points down.
Oil fell to $60.23/bbl. after having gone up a little during the day at first.
The decline is starting to set in, which not only makes it a bear market, but which shows that long term prospects for the economy are fading.
April 11, 2025
China raised its tariffs on US goods to 125%.
April 13, 2025
The Trump administration is now excluding certain electronics like smartphones and laptops from reciprocal tariffs.
April 14, 2025
The weekend shows made it clear that the reprieve on electronics tariffs is temporary, and more directed ones will be coming.
Regarding the weekend shows:
On a US industry that may in fact feel quick relief in their sector from the tariffs, a headline from the Tribune:
GULF SHRIMPERS CHEER
ON TRUMP’S TARIFFS
SEAFOOD INDUSTRY
Cheap imports cause US industry to lose 50% of market value
April 17, 2025
Wyoming hospital districts face ‘painful’ funding drop with property tax cut: The state’s 15 hospital districts are among hundreds of entities that will see tax revenue declines. It’s a blow to an already fragile sector, health care representatives say.
April 19, 2025
Mack Trucks is laying off between 250 and 350 workers at its Lehigh Valley Operations center in Pennsylvania, citing economic uncertainty caused by Trump’s tariffs.
President Trump’s tariff war isn’t going well, with market ructions and evidence of a slowing economy. So it was probably inevitable that Mr. Trump would demand that the Federal Reserve ride to his rescue by cutting interest rates…The problem for Mr. Trump is that Mr. Powell spoke the truth. Tariffs are a tax, which means higher prices for tariffed goods.
The Wall Street Journal Editorial Board.
April 22, 2025
Donald Trump started the day be rebuking businessmen who lack faith in his actions on the econmy.
By the end of the day, the economy rebuked him.
The Wall Street Journal and Barrons.
Most AmeriCorps staff members were placed on leave.
cont:
Trump has been attacking Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who was appointed by Trump in his first legitimate administration. It's now being theorized that this is so that Trump will have a scapegoat for crashing the economy, which is occurring. The statute of limitations on blaming Biden has basically expired.
cont:
The Institute of International Finance (IIF) reported today that Trump’s policies mean the U.S. economy may fall into a Recession and shrink by 0.8% in Q3 and 0.3% in Q4 2025 with inflation rising to 4.6% by the end of the year.
The result would be stagflation.
April 23, 2025
After threatening Jerome Powell for a few days, Trump backed off.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Tuesday that the ongoing tariffs war against China is unsustainable and he expects a “de-escalation” in the trade war.
Trump suggested he was going to cut China's tariffs substantially. China has not reached out to negotiate.
Classic Trump cycle. Do something stupid. . . something bad happens. . . claims problem is solved and things will be fine. . . reverses decision.
April 24, 2025
Elon Musk is going back to Tesla, which has taken a hammering since Musk became the chief doggy of DOGE, for the most part. He apparently will still have some association with the kennel, according to his statement, but my guess is that will end pretty quickly.
Whether Tesla will also end, given its economic slide, is another question. With Musk barking at liberals, and Tesla's being sort of a liberal status symbol at one time, it may simply decline into oblivion.
Texas, which has been following Trump in all things Trumplike, just created its own DOGE.
April 29, 2025
Amazon announced that it is adding the price of tariffs to the cost of items.
D'uh.
Interestingly, it's going to post the price of the tariffs on the items it lists.
Carline Levitt, on behalf of the administration, declared "This is a hostile and political act by Amazon", expressing a view which apparently shows that the Administration is either completely dim on how pricing works, or seeking scapegoats for a policy that it nows is going to hit in May and be massively unpopular. It'd rather you not know, apparently, although people will soon figure that out anyhow.
April 30, 2025
Trump called Bezos and Amazon backed off.
UPS is laying off 20,000 drivers in anticipation of reduced Amazon shipments.
The economy shrank last quarter. Trump blamed President Biden.
May 1, 2025
Here's the current price of oil:
WTI Crude 56.88
Brent Crude 59.75
This is way below the Wyoming price marketability figure. If this holds, this will result in the crash of Wyoming oil.
Trump's economic propogandists keep pointing to the price of oil going down, which it has been, as proof of his tariffs working. They are working to depress the price of oil, but because the price of oil is an economic indicator. When it goes down, it means there's an anticipated or actual low demand, usually. Production gluts are also a cause, but that's not the cause here.
Prices went down on everything, I"d note, during the Great Depression, once it was really rolling.
This is bad news, for Wyoming in particular.
DOGE cuts to AmeriCorps ‘a devastating blow to the state of Wyoming’: “What I struggle with most is that this is somehow an act of efficiency,” one stakeholder told WyoFile, adding that $40 is returned for every federal dollar invested in service in Wyoming.
In the 100 Day Cabinet meeting in which Trump's loyal retainers heaped praise upon him, the Dear Leader noted sacrifice in that maybe children this Christmas shall get only two dolls, instead of 30.
Let them eat cake.
May 3, 2025
There is no question that trade can be an act of war. It has led to bad things — the attitudes that it has brought out. In the United States, we should be looking to trade with the rest of the world. And we should do what we do best and they should do what they do best. That’s what we did originally. We were good at producing tobacco and cotton 250 years ago and we traded it. We want a prosperous world but eight countries with nuclear weapons, including a few that I would call quite unstable, I do not think it’s a great idea where a few countries say ‘hahaha we won,” and other countries are envious.
Warren Buffet today.
May 5, 2025
And now we're going to hit foreign movies with a 100% tariff, apparently.
May 6, 2025
Governor sees ‘opportunity’ for Wyoming in Trump tariff war. Economist sees ‘disaster.’: State's trona and soda ash industry is particularly vulnerable to losing global buyers, while Gordon sees potential bright spots for mineral commodities, as well as new manufacturing.
May 7, 2025
If the large increase in tariffs that have been announced are sustained, they are likely to generate a rise in inflation, a slow down in economic growth and an increase in unemployment.
Jerome Powell.
May 8, 2025
The US and the UK have apparently reached a trade deal, although the details are murky.
Related threads:
Labels: 2020s, 2025, Clothing, Coal, Coffee, Petroleum, Taxes, The Madness of King Donald, The Tariff Recession, Trump Trade WarsLast edition:
