The Donald Trump Effect, voters running from candidates endorsed by the deranged octogenarian whose administration is protecting the rapist of teenagers, starting wars, and causing rising inflation, is having a noticeable nationwide, and even international, effect. Voters in special elections all over the US are dumping MAGA candidates and electing Democrats. It's an absolute certainty at this point that, unless something dramatic happens, that the Republicans are going to lose badly at the midterms and retake the House. And now it appears they're likely to take the Senate. The Cook Political Report shifted four Senate races this past week to favor Democratic and pundits are now openly saying the Democrats will take the upper house.
Of course, Democrats have a way of shooting themselves in the foot. Nonetheless the momentum is clear. Trump has lost independents, who he needs in most places for the GOP to remain in office, and he's lost Hispanics. This past week his actions were such that if he has not lost non Hispanic Catholics, its only because those voters value Trump more than the Faith or are engaging in some really self delusional thinking, keeping in mind that you never actually have to vote Democratic and that in the primaries there is usually a Republican willing to run who isn't a slave to Trump.
California Republicans refused to endorse a Governor's candidate in a convention that was just held and snubbed Trump's endorsement of one. They see the handwriting on the wall.
But still you have this.
An entire group of Wyoming candidates acts like this adoring girl. Shoot, they'd like to be squeezed by Trump too.
If Wyomingites are going to wake up, and that's unlikely, there's be a point, if we are not already at it, where voting for the GOP candidates who associate with themselves with Trump would be a no go. And some of those candidates would already be no gos.
Chuck Gray, who barely won the Secretary of State's office and only did so by lies and screeds about an imaginary pack of left wingers always oppressing him is running on being perpetually pissed off at at the left and being in deep love with Donald Trump. Reid Rasner promises to be Trump's number one fan. Megan Degenfelder has "Endorsed by Donald Trump" on her campaign signs.
All three are Catholic. If they can still stomach Trump at this point, there's literally no value they hold that they actually hold. No Democrat is going to win, so lashing themselves to Trump is either cynical or self delusional. It's inexcusable.
Degenfelder's signs out to read "Endorsed by Blasphemer Donald Trump". Gray and Rasner, who are both young enough, ought to joint the Marines and put their bodies where their mouths are.
Another far right Catholic figure in Wyoming is Rachel Rodriguez-Williams, who is now running for Secretary of State as Rachel Williams. She's never said anything about Trump of which I'm aware, but as a Freedom Caucuser she ought to fell uncomfortable with the company she's been keeping.
It'll also be interesting to see how columnists like Jonathan Lange, a Lutheran minister, approaches what is now too obvious to ignore. . . Trump doesn't care about religion at all and feels free to outright mock it. Granted, he's not Catholic, but for sincere Christians what was depicted is blasphemous irrespective of which branch of Christianity a person might be in.
And then we have this:
There's no excuse for what Gray did.
Even some Republican states are opposing giving voter data to the Federal Government, but Chuck was the first to comply.
We'll see how this plays out, but if he loses, given his position, he ought to get the maximum penalty.
Anyhow, we're in the thick of the election now, but every day, Donald Trump gets weirder and weirder. He's insane. Standing by the insanity is not excusable.
This may be showing that the bloom is actually off the Trump rose. Generally, Wyoming Republicans have been complete Trump toady's.
The five are Kevin Christensen, who called the post blasphemous, Matt McGinnis, and John Romero-Martinez. Romero-Martinez, who is a devout Catholic, added that it was not only blasphemous, but sacrilegious.
Kinney the Democratic candidate and Johnson the Libertarian also criticized the act, but less forcefully.
Johnson made the excellent point that this is one of a string of outrages.
Both Rasner and Gray are Catholic and if that's all they could muster up people who sit next to them at Mass on Sunday ought to ask them what's the matter with them.
Elsewhere this was an act that finally had a reaction. Like Johnson noted, you have to wonder where these people were all along. Trump fan Riley Gaines noted:
Seriously I cannot understand why he’d post this. Is he looking for a response? Does he actually think this?
Gaines must have been asleep for the past decade to actually post a query on Trump's character. He's self centered and narcissistic, and she seems surprised.
This trend locally and nationally shows that the wheels are really coming off of MAGA. A Turning Point USA convention that was just held was grossly under attended. Locally Republicans for the first time feel able to criticize Trump. There's a significant movement in the state to boot out the Wyoming Freedom Caucus. A bipartisan movement in the House caused the removal of a Democratic and a Republican sex abuser, bypassing the pathetic Mike Johnson. It appears the Democrats are going to take the Senate and the House.
For the Republicans, the good thing is that they are finally out of the cave to a degree. The GOP has been wrecked by Donald Trump, but this may actually give them a chance to start to rebuild it, whereas waiting until after the November election will be utterly too late.
cont:
I recognize that a lot of young voters don't love the policy we have in the Middle East. Okay. I understand that. Don't get disengaged because you disagree with the administration on one topic. Get more involved. That's how we ultimately take the country back.
J. D. Vance.
WTF?
Vance did oppose the war. We know that as he leaked like crazy. But getting involved would mean booting the GOP into the dustbin, maybe forever.
Vance has remade himself repeatedly. A person now stating that this is how "we take the country back" is raising interesting questions about where he himself is headed. He's including himself in the "we" who are young and who oppose the policy in the Middle East.
Is Vance having a Humber Humphrey moment?
It'll be interesting to see if this is Vance's first cautious step into independence. He's not dumb, and he obviously sees and even acknowledges that the GOP is going into the dumpster. That statement would seem to be a declaration of independence from Trump.
April 17, 2026
Governor Gordon confirmed that he is not running for a third term.
While we're unlikely to mention this race again, Sheriff Harlan is running for reelection in Natrona County, Wyoming.
Rep. Harshman of Natrona County is running for Superintendent of Public Instruction. He'd make a very good choice for this position, but it puts his house district in play. A far right wing candidate was challenging Harshman as well as a Democrat.
Albert Sommers is running for the seat he lost in the last election, House District 20. It fell to a WFC member.
April 19, 2026
Yesterday was the day of dueling mail flyers for the U.S. House race. Identically sized campaign flyers for Chuck Gray and Reid Rasner arrived in the mailboxes of Natrona County residents. Apparently the Gray ones went statewide.
They were really laughable. Gray's depicts the diminutive Californian standing next to Donald Trump, looking slightly above him. Trump is something like 6'2" tall where as Gray is absolutely tiny. I'm not a very large person, 5'6", and I look down on Gray, which says something. Gray has also taken up wearing western wool shirts in an effort to make him look like a Wyomingite, but which really point out that he isn't. His campaign is based on far right MAGA platforms and sticking next to, and apparently slightly above, the demented belle of the far right ball, Trump.
Rasner, who has no chance, attacked Gray in his, and frankly some of his attacks are landing. He may carve votes away from Gray.
Locally, small business owner Neil Jeske announced he was running to take on J. R. Riggins in House District 59, which includes part of Casper and all of Mills.
Riggins is probably in trouble as he only won in that race in the first place as he was the only one running. He missed the first legislature he was supposed to serve in entirely due to heart problems. I saw him at a political event before the last legislative session and he really appeared to be out to sea.
Unfortunately, Jeske is the candidate that Natrona County doesn't need. He already is on the reduce spending and reduce regulation platform. Wyoming already has so little regulation that the state government would have to go out and regulate something in order for their to be regulation to cut, and the legislature is so cheap that Wyoming has very large financial reserves that just sit there as the state won't distribute funds to local governments, their only real way of getting them. We probably need more regulation and less financial restraint.
Jeske is apparently a truck driver. I don't know what Riggins is. At any rate, truck driving in 2026 is sort of like being a teamster in 1916. It's a real job. . . and one that's about to disappear. Hopefully somebody else will step up and run.
April 21, 2026
Based upon his campaign propaganda, Jeske, mentioned above, is a worst pick than Riggins. He's another out of state implant and of far right wing views. He's going on the don't vote for list.
Riggins, on the other hand, based on his public lands voting, appears to have risen to his position.
April 22, 2026
In the move The Hunt For Red October the pursuing Soviet submarine commander orders the safeties taken off of his torpedoes so he can hit the Red October from close range. The U.S. submarine USS Dallas deflects the aim of the fired torpedo which circles back and hits the Soviet sub. As it happens, a Soviet submariner tells his captain, "You arrogant ass, you killed us".
That's exactly what Donald Trump is doing to the GOP.
More particularly, that's what he did by demanding that Texas redistrict out of cycle.
Worried that thing were turning against him, Trump demanded that compliant Texas Governor Abbot cause the GOP controlled Texas legislature to convene and specially redistrict. Abbot, to his everlasting shame, complied.
Trump is apparently so dim that he didn't realize the same strategy could be used against him. First California did it, and now Virginia did.
Even accepting the conventional math, there are now more Democratic districts that added to the map for the fall than there are Republican ones, although only barely so. Still, the results are remarkable. In Virginia, where it was done by the voters, it will mean that Virginia returns to being an overwhelmingly Democratic state in terms of is House or Representatives delegates. Trump actually completely flipped an entire state from Republican to Democrat prior to the election itself.
The GOP, in order to keep this game up, must now have Florida do the same thing. It's not assured, however, as Florida is starting to go to the Democratic Party a bit all on its own. Redistricting may simply assure that occurs.
And ironically, the Texas result may have added Democratic seats in Texas. Texas actually has more Democratic voters than Republicans. In recent years its only been a Republican state for the same reason the rest of the South is. But Texas also has heavily Hispanic districts. Trump took them in 2024, but now that's changing.
And this from a guy who claimed to master "the art of the deal".
A note here about one state that tried to redistrict and couldn't, that being Utah.
Most Western states have a much better system than the rest of the country and require fair and balanced redistricting. Much of the rest of the country which had Democratic administrations was moving that way. Republicans, who were rapidly becoming a minority party in the 1990s, resisted it. That's why in Californian and Virginia, redistricting is being democratically. It's also the reason why in one Midwestern state that's currently done this way the legislature refused to consider redistricting even though its Republican controlled. They knew the voters, in that instance, would take it out on them.
In Utah, a court turned the effort around. It was only one seat, but that shows something interesting. Utah has a Democratic Congressional seat. Utah's the same state that sent Mike Lee to Congress for some reason, but not every district fits that mold.
And in a state like Wyoming, which of course only has one Congressional seat, this couldn't happen as it would be against the state constitution.
cont:
Wyoming Public Radio reports that for the House race, Reid Rasner, who will go down in August like a kerosene doused biplane flying through a blast furnace, has raised $1.2 M in this campaign, the majority of which is a loan from himself. Chuck Gray has done the same and nearly approached $1M.
Committing that amount of money to a job that pays a fraction of that per year should flat out be illegal. We need to address that in our "don't vote for" list, which has been switched over to being a page on the website, rather than a thread.
I chose to take the name Leo XIV. There are different reasons for this, but mainly because Pope Leo XIII in his historic Encyclical Rerum Novarum addressed the social question in the context of the first great industrial revolution. In our own day, the Church offers to everyone the treasury of her social teaching in response to another industrial revolution and to developments in the field of artificial intelligence that pose new challenges for the defence of human dignity, justice and labour.
Pope Leo XIV.
In the light of the new Pope taking the name Leo XIV, let's revisit a major writing of Pope Leo XIII