Showing posts with label deflation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label deflation. Show all posts

Friday, December 27, 2024

USDA Forecasts Higher Retail Egg Prices for 2025

 What the crud?

USDA Daily Radio Newsline

December 27 Stories

USDA Forecasts Higher Retail Egg Prices for 2025

Census of Aquaculture Reveals Top Selling Seafood Types

Top Ten Weather Stories of 2024 – Southern Plains Wildfires

Top Ten Weather Stories of 2024 –Western Wildfires

Actuality: Notable Western Wildfire Season

Higher egg prices?  Donald promised to lower prices.  That simply can't be true.  Prices must go down.

Saturday, December 21, 2024

Subsidiarity Economics 2024. The Times more or less locally, Part 4. A return to Pre Covid status


US incomes have returned to their 2019 level, adjusted for inflation.

The adjusted rate of inflation was 2.9%.

While people will continue to complain, this is pretty close to being back to the economic status of 2019.

Oil dropped yesterday to $69/bbl.

September 25, 2024

Delta To Pull Out Of Casper Airport, Last Flight Is Dec. 3


Delta To Pull Out Of Casper Airport, Last Flight Is Dec. 3


November 17, 2024

Boeing is commencing layoffs.

November 26, 2024

In a monumentally bad idea, President-elect Donald Trump said Monday he will issue executive orders imposing new tariffs on all imported goods from China, Mexico and Canada. with the rates being 25 percent tariffs would be imposed on Mexican and Canadian merchandise and 10 percent on Chinese goods.  This was tied, oddly, to his immigration goals.

December 2, 2024

President Elect Trump threatened 100% tariffs against Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates. 
Turkey, Azerbaijan and Malaysia if they act to block the US Dollar ast he global reserve currency.

December 3, 2024

From a Fox News broadcast:
We are told that when Trudeau told President-elect Trump that new tariffs would kill the Canadian economy, Trump joked to him that if Canada can't survive without ripping off the U.S. the tune of one hundred billion dollars a year, then maybe Canada should become the 51st state and Trudeau could become its governor.

Apparently this was said by Trump in jest by our boorish embarrassment of a President Elect. 

December 11, 2024

$24B merger between grocery giants Kroger, Albertsons blocked by federal judge


Continuous arabica coffee futures on the ICE rose 4.1% to $3.44 a pound beating a record set in 1977 even before it is adjusted for inflation.

December 12, 2024

An Ontario message to Donald Trump from Ontario Premier Doug Ford.
We need to be ready to fight [on] January the 20th. We will go to the extent of cutting off their energy, going down to Michigan, going down to New York State and over to Wisconsin. I don't want this to happen, but my number one job is to protect Ontario, Ontarians and Canadians as a whole since we're the largest province. Let's see what happens as we move forward. But we'll use every tool in our toolbox, including cutting them off energy that we're sending down there.
Frankly, a lot of New York will freeze in the dark without Canadian hydroelectric.

On groceries, the item that a lot of Trump voters naively believed Trump could make the price of "go down":
It's hard to bring things down once they're up. You know, it's very hard.

Donald Trump.

D'uh. 

There was no earthly way that Trump was ever going to be able to get the price of groceries to go down and a person would have had to have been bereft of economic knowledge to have believed that.  Unfortunately, a lot of Americans are in fact bereft of economic knowledge.  As we've noted here before, that would require deflation, and deflation if prolonged, causes a Depression.

Trump back on November 4, 2024: “A vote for Trump means your groceries will be cheaper.”

Nope, they won't be.

So, now that he's been elected, this promise joins the one to end the war in Ukraine 24 hours after he's elected.  I.e., it'll be broken.

December 13, 2024

Pope Francis.
Forgive us our trespasses: grant us your peace

I. Listening to the plea of an endangered humanity

1. At the dawn of this New Year given to us by our heavenly Father, a year of Jubilee in the spirit of hope, I offer heartfelt good wishes of peace to every man and woman. I think especially of those who feel downtrodden, burdened by their past mistakes, oppressed by the judgment of others and incapable of perceiving even a glimmer of hope for their own lives. Upon everyone I invoke hope and peace, for this is a Year of Grace born of the Heart of the Redeemer!

2. Throughout this year, the Catholic Church celebrates the Jubilee, an event that fills hearts with hope. The “jubilee” recalls an ancient Jewish practice, when, every forty-ninth year, the sound of a ram’s horn (in Hebrew, jobel) would proclaim a year of forgiveness and freedom for the entire people (cf. Lev 25:10). This solemn proclamation was meant to echo throughout the land (cf. Lev 25:9) and to restore God’s justice in every aspect of life: in the use of the land, in the possession of goods and in relationships with others, above all the poor and the dispossessed. The blowing of the horn reminded the entire people, rich and poor alike, that no one comes into this world doomed to oppression: all of us are brothers and sisters, sons and daughters of the same Father, born to live in freedom, in accordance with the Lord’s will (cf. Lev 25:17, 25, 43, 46, 55).

3. In our day too, the Jubilee is an event that inspires us to seek to establish the liberating justice of God in our world. In place of the ram’s horn, at the start of this Year of Grace we wish to hear the “desperate plea for help” [1] that, like the cry of the blood of Abel (cf. Gen 4:10), rises up from so many parts of our world – a plea that God never fails to hear. We for our part feel bound to cry out and denounce the many situations in which the earth is exploited and our neighbours oppressed. [2] These injustices can appear at times in the form of what Saint John Paul II called “structures of sin”, [3] that arise not only from injustice on the part of some but are also consolidated and maintained by a network of complicity.

4. Each of us must feel in some way responsible for the devastation to which the earth, our common home, has been subjected, beginning with those actions that, albeit only indirectly, fuel the conflicts that presently plague our human family. Systemic challenges, distinct yet interconnected, are thus created and together cause havoc in our world. [4] I think, in particular, of all manner of disparities, the inhuman treatment meted out to migrants, environmental decay, the confusion willfully created by disinformation, the refusal to engage in any form of dialogue and the immense resources spent on the industry of war. All these, taken together, represent a threat to the existence of humanity as a whole. At the beginning of this year, then, we desire to heed the plea of suffering humankind in order to feel called, together and as individuals, to break the bonds of injustice and to proclaim God’s justice. Sporadic acts of philanthropy are not enough. Cultural and structural changes are necessary, so that enduring change may come about. [5]

II. A cultural change: all of us are debtors

5. The celebration of the Jubilee spurs us to make a number of changes in order to confront the present state of injustice and inequality by reminding ourselves that the goods of the earth are meant not for a privileged few, but for everyone. [6] We do well to recall the words of Saint Basil of Caesarea: “Tell me, what things belong to you? Where did you find them to make them part of your life? … Did you not come forth naked from the womb of your mother? Will you not return naked to the ground? Where did your property come from? If you say that it comes to you naturally by luck, you would deny God by not recognizing the Creator and being grateful to the Giver”. [7] Without gratitude, we are unable to recognize God’s gifts. Yet in his infinite mercy the Lord does not abandon sinful humanity, but instead reaffirms his gift of life by the saving forgiveness offered to all through Jesus Christ. That is why, in teaching us the “Our Father”, Jesus told us to pray: “Forgive us our trespasses” ( Mt 6:12).

6. Once we lose sight of our relationship to the Father, we begin to cherish the illusion that our relationships with others can be governed by a logic of exploitation and oppression, where might makes right. [8] Like the elites at the time of Jesus, who profited from the suffering of the poor, so today, in our interconnected global village, [9] the international system, unless it is inspired by a spirit of solidarity and interdependence, gives rise to injustices, aggravated by corruption, which leave the poorer countries trapped. A mentality that exploits the indebted can serve as a shorthand description of the present “debt crisis” that weighs upon a number of countries, above all in the global South.

7. I have repeatedly stated that foreign debt has become a means of control whereby certain governments and private financial institutions of the richer countries unscrupulously and indiscriminately exploit the human and natural resources of poorer countries, simply to satisfy the demands of their own markets. [10] In addition, different peoples, already burdened by international debt, find themselves also forced to bear the burden of the “ecological debt” incurred by the more developed countries. [11] Foreign debt and ecological debt are two sides of the same coin, namely the mindset of exploitation that has culminated in the debt crisis. [12] In the spirit of this Jubilee Year, I urge the international community to work towards forgiving foreign debt in recognition of the ecological debt existing between the North and the South of this world. This is an appeal for solidarity, but above all for justice. [13]

8. The cultural and structural change needed to surmount this crisis will come about when we finally recognize that we are all sons and daughters of the one Father, that we are all in his debt but also that we need one another, in a spirit of shared and diversified responsibility. We will be able to “rediscover once for all that we need one another” and are indebted one to another. [14]

III. A journey of hope: three proposals

9. If we take to heart these much-needed changes, the Jubilee Year of Grace can serve to set each of us on a renewed journey of hope, born of the experience of God’s unlimited mercy. [15]

God owes nothing to anyone, yet he constantly bestows his grace and mercy upon all. As Isaac of Nineveh, a seventh-century Father of the Eastern Church, put it in one of his prayers: “Your love, Lord, is greater than my trespasses. The waves of the sea are nothing with respect to the multitude of my sins, but placed on a scale and weighed against your love, they vanish like a speck of dust”. [16] God does not weigh up the evils we commit; rather, he is immensely “rich in mercy, for the great love with which he loved us” ( Eph 2:4). Yet he also hears the plea of the poor and the cry of the earth. We would do well simply to stop for a moment, at the beginning of this year, to think of the mercy with which he constantly forgives our sins and forgives our every debt, so that our hearts may overflow with hope and peace.

10. In teaching us to pray the “Our Father”, Jesus begins by asking the Father to forgive our trespasses, but passes immediately to the challenging words: “as we forgive those who trespass against us” (cf. Mt 6:12). In order to forgive others their trespasses and to offer them hope, we need for our own lives to be filled with that same hope, the fruit of our experience of God’s mercy. Hope overflows in generosity; it is free of calculation, makes no hidden demands, is unconcerned with gain, but aims at one thing alone: to raise up those who have fallen, to heal hearts that are broken and to set us free from every kind of bondage.

11. Consequently, at the beginning of this Year of Grace, I would like to offer three proposals capable of restoring dignity to the lives of entire peoples and enabling them to set them out anew on the journey of hope. In this way, the debt crisis can be overcome and all of us can once more realize that we are debtors whose debts have been forgiven.

First, I renew the appeal launched by Saint John Paul II on the occasion of the Great Jubilee of the Year 2000 to consider “reducing substantially, if not cancelling outright, the international debt which seriously threatens the future of many nations”. [17] In recognition of their ecological debt, the more prosperous countries ought to feel called to do everything possible to forgive the debts of those countries that are in no condition to repay the amount they owe. Naturally, lest this prove merely an isolated act of charity that simply reboots the vicious cycle of financing and indebtedness, a new financial framework must be devised, leading to the creation of a global financial Charter based on solidarity and harmony between peoples.

I also ask for a firm commitment to respect for the dignity of human life from conception to natural death, so that each person can cherish his or her own life and all may look with hope to a future of prosperity and happiness for themselves and for their children. Without hope for the future, it becomes hard for the young to look forward to bringing new lives into the world. Here I would like once more to propose a concrete gesture that can help foster the culture of life, namely the elimination of the death penalty in all nations. This penalty not only compromises the inviolability of life but eliminates every human hope of forgiveness and rehabilitation. [18]

In addition, following in the footsteps of Saint Paul VI and Benedict XVI, [19] I do not hesitate to make yet another appeal, for the sake of future generations. In this time marked by wars, let us use at least a fixed percentage of the money earmarked for armaments to establish a global Fund to eradicate hunger and facilitate in the poorer countries educational activities aimed at promoting sustainable development and combating climate change. [20] We need to work at eliminating every pretext that encourages young people to regard their future as hopeless or dominated by the thirst to avenge the blood of their dear ones. The future is a gift meant to enable us to go beyond past failures and to pave new paths of peace.

IV. The goal of peace

12. Those who take up these proposals and set out on the journey of hope will surely glimpse the dawn of the greatly desired goal of peace. The Psalmist promises us that “steadfast love and faithfulness will meet; righteousness and peace will kiss” ( Ps 85:10). When I divest myself of the weapon of credit and restore the path of hope to one of my brothers or sisters, I contribute to the restoration of God’s justice on this earth and, with that person, I advance towards the goal of peace. As Saint John XXIII observed, true peace can be born only from a heart “disarmed” of anxiety and the fear of war. [21]

13. May 2025 be a year in which peace flourishes! A true and lasting peace that goes beyond quibbling over the details of agreements and human compromises. [22] May we seek the true peace that is granted by God to hearts disarmed: hearts not set on calculating what is mine and what is yours; hearts that turn selfishness into readiness to reach out to others; hearts that see themselves as indebted to God and thus prepared to forgive the debts that oppress others; hearts that replace anxiety about the future with the hope that every individual can be a resource for the building of a better world.

14. Disarming hearts is a job for everyone, great and small, rich and poor alike. At times, something quite simple will do, such as “a smile, a small gesture of friendship, a kind look, a ready ear, a good deed”. [23] With such gestures, we progress towards the goal of peace. We will arrive all the more quickly if, in the course of journeying alongside our brothers and sisters, we discover that we have changed from the time we first set out. Peace does not only come with the end of wars but with the dawn of a new world, a world in which we realize that we are different, closer and more fraternal than we ever thought possible.

15. Lord, grant us your peace! This is my prayer to God as I now offer my cordial good wishes for the New Year to the Heads of State and Government, to the leaders of International Organizations, to the leaders of the various religions and to every person of good will.

Forgive us our trespasses, Lord,

as we forgive those who trespass against us.

In this cycle of forgiveness, grant us your peace,

the peace that you alone can give

to those who let themselves be disarmed in heart,

to those who choose in hope to forgive the debts of their brothers and sisters,

to those who are unafraid to confess their debt to you,

and to those who do not close their ears to the cry of the poor.

From the Vatican, 8 December 2024
December 17, 2024

Canada's Finance Minister resigned.

This of course gave the chance for our bratty twelve year old president elect to make another one of his snotty tweets.
The Great State of Canada is stunned as the Finance Minister resigns, or was fired, from her position by Governor Justin Trudeau. Her behavior was totally toxic, and not at all conducive to making deals which are good for the very unhappy citizens of Canada. She will not be missed!!!
Where this conduct comes from, and why its tolerated is another question.

December 18, 2024

Elon Musk is campaigning against the bill that would provide stop gap funding until the next Congress convenes.


December 19, 2024

The Fed is cutting interests rates.

December 20, 2024

After tanking one continuing budget resolution, following his super wealthy "DOGE" appointees, Trump supported a second, which tanked last night.

And here we enter interesting territory.  In spite of widespread public belief to the contrary, Trump was set to inherit a strong economy.  Now he's tanking it.


December 21, 2024

A CR passed but House Republicans defied a Trump request to raise the debt ceiling.

Why would Trump want to raise the debt ceiling if he intends to be true to the spirit of his campaign?

And now Trump is threatening the EU with tariffs if they don't up oil and gas imports, which are already at capacity.

Related threads:

September 10, 2024. Pearls Before Swine.

Last edition:

Subsidiarity Economics 2024. The times more or less locally, Part 3. The Decarbonizing the West and Electronic eartags Edition.

Friday, October 11, 2024

Inflation. A needed primer.


Seeing as I see so many posts, some from people running for office on this, a reminder.

Inflation going down just means the rate of inflation, goes down.  Prices still rise, just more slowly.

The U.S. Government targets inflation to be at about 2%.  It's 2.4% right now, which is basically a return to the pre Covid rate of inflation.  It goes up a little and down a little.

Personally, I don't like it that the government targets inflation for a perpetual slight rate.  I think the ideal rate is 0%.  Economist dispute that, but I'm not an economist, except in the amature, and distributist, sense.

Some people, such as Jimmy Akin, blame the government for inflation itself, and to some extent that's warranted.  But the recent inflationary cycle reflects world events, a war in Europe's grain belt between to oil producing entities being a big part of that.  Ironically, recent drops in the rate of inflation have been partially caused by Iran being a menace.

Anyhow, politicians who keep suggesting that "prices will go down" if they are elected are either lying or economically ignorant.

Prices can go down, of course, and for a variety of reasons. Technological advances cause the price of some things to go down, although they cause the price of some durables to go up.  Political actions can impact the price of things, but it tends to only occur very moderately over a prolonged period of time, or due to something dramatic, like deregulation of a very heavily regulated industry, or like busting up a big monopoly.

When prices really go down, that's deflation.  Not a decrease in inflation.  Once again, a decrease of inflation means that prices still rise, just not as much over a given period of time.  Deflation means they actually drop.

Deflation is pretty rare in a healthy economy and when it occurs in a healthy economy, it tends to only be for a month or so.  A general prolonged deflation only occurs in a depression. 

Depressions cause deflations.  People are out of work, so they don't have money, so they don't buy things, so prices drop.

And there you have it.

Tuesday, August 8, 2023

Subsidiarity Economics. The times more or less locally, Part XIV. And now back to our regularly scheduled programming.

 


June 5, 2023

Saudi Arabia is cutting its petroleum production by 1M barrels a day.

June 6, 2023

Ukrainian wheat prices have jumped.

June 9, 2023

Wyoming will divest itself of investments in China.

June 22, 2023

Ground was broken yesterday, after a decade and a half was expended on permitting on the Trans West Transmission project.  The event took place near Sinclair.\

June 27, 2023

Ford Motors is laying off salaried workers and engineers in order to save costs.

June 28, 2023

WYDOT approved a grant to Jackson to use Federal money to purchase EV buses.

June 29, 2023

Walgreens is closing 150 stores in the U.S.

In a tragedy, National Geographic magazine laid off its last remaining staff writers.

The magazine has been independent of the National Geographic Society since 2015, when it was sold to Fox.

Wyoming and Colorado Sign MOU Regarding Direct Air Capture

MOU outlines commitment to exploring direct air carbon dioxide capture (DAC) industry development

BOULDER, Colo.  – The State of Wyoming and State of Colorado announced today that they have signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) regarding direct air capture (DAC) activity and development. The bipartisan inter-state agreement will focus on the DAC industry’s potential to complement existing and emerging industries and increase jobs and economic development in both states while simultaneously reducing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Governors Mark Gordon and Jared Polis announced the news during the Western Governor Association meeting today in Boulder, Colorado.

Direct Air Capture is a method of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) in which CO2 is removed from the air and then sequestered and stored to produce high-quality carbon removal credits or used for industrial applications, such as enhanced oil recovery or as a chemical feedstock for other products. The federal government has established several significant incentives and competitive grant opportunities to test and scale direct air capture technologies and projects. The mountain west is uniquely positioned to lead on these efforts, and this bipartisan agreement represents the first such multistate partnership in the county. 

The MOU outlines the partnership between the states through potential collaborations such as: applying for grants, identifying necessary infrastructure, defining carbon removal measurement standards, analyzing atmospheric CDR markets and their growth opportunities, identifying a process for resolving issues with cross-border CO2 sequestration, developing a commercialization pipeline for nascent technologies, and ensuring that local, tribal, and state stakeholders are empowered participants in shaping the future of this innovative technology and its significant economic opportunity. 

“Wyoming is a longtime leader in carbon management practices and policy,” said Wyoming Governor Mark Gordon. “We believe direct air capture could complement efforts for point-source carbon capture and the related infrastructure. Colorado and Wyoming each have pieces of the puzzle necessary to develop a carbon removal market and industry. Together, we have a powerful combination of assets, infrastructure, policy, markets, people, geology and mindsets that are needed to accelerate the development of the industry. This agreement focuses on working together on the most important questions related to DAC, including measurement standards that work to create more transparency in markets and benefits to communities.”

“This exciting bipartisan partnership builds upon our nation-leading work in Colorado to achieve 100% renewable energy by 2040 while adding good-paying jobs. I am proud to partner with Gov. Gordon on this innovative work that benefits both Colorado and Wyoming as we continue to find creative ideas and common-sense solutions in the fight for clean air that won’t just benefit Colorado and Wyoming, but the entire world,” said Colorado Governor Jared Polis. 

The MOU highlights the combined assets, infrastructure, policy, markets, resources and geology that make the region a strong contender for developing a direct air capture industry. Wyoming has world-class carbon capture, use and sequestration (CCUS) assets, including permanent geologic storage – in addition to existing infrastructure, manufacturing and energy workforce. Colorado has been developing a policy environment to evaluate the regulatory, economic, technological, and research opportunities in the carbon dioxide removal and direct air capture area and is home to the world’s second-largest operating DAC facility. 

This agreement builds on further regional collaboration between Wyoming and Colorado with Utah and New Mexico to develop the Western Interstates Hydrogen Hub. This existing partnership will mobilize  billions of dollars of investment in clean hydrogen infrastructure, another emerging technology to reduce pollution and continue the West’s leadership on global energy solutions.  

For more information, read the Memorandum in full.

June 30, 2023

UW is receiving a Federal grant for nuclear chemistry research.  The grant is in the amount of $300,000.

A headline:

Sriracha prices soar amid ongoing supply shortage linked to droughts

July 3, 2023

In an effort to cause prices to rise, Russia is cutting petroleum production by 500,000 bbls per day.

July 12, 2023

Inflation has fallen to 3%.  Historically, while it's perfectly possible to have even lower inflation, or deflation, that's a pretty good rate.

That we allow for government induced inflation through monetary policy is inexcusable, however.

The official aim is for 2%:

Why does the Federal Reserve aim for inflation of 2 percent over the longer run?

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) judges that inflation of 2 percent over the longer run, as measured by the annual change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures, is most consistent with the Federal Reserve’s mandate for maximum employment and price stability. When households and businesses can reasonably expect inflation to remain low and stable, they are able to make sound decisions regarding saving, borrowing, and investment, which contributes to a well-functioning economy.

For many years, inflation in the United States has run below the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent goal. It is understandable that higher prices for essential items, such as food, gasoline, and shelter, add to the burdens faced by many families, especially those struggling with lost jobs and incomes. At the same time, inflation that is too low can weaken the economy. When inflation runs well below its desired level, households and businesses will come to expect this over time, pushing expectations for inflation in the future below the Federal Reserve’s longer-run inflation goal. This can pull actual inflation even lower, resulting in a cycle of ever-lower inflation and inflation expectations.

If inflation expectations fall, interest rates would decline too. In turn, there would be less room to cut interest rates to boost employment during an economic downturn. Evidence from around the world suggests that once this problem sets in, it can be very difficult to overcome. To address this challenge, following periods when inflation has been running persistently below 2 percent, appropriate monetary policy will likely aim to achieve inflation modestly above 2 percent for some time. By seeking inflation that averages 2 percent over time, the FOMC will help to ensure longer-run inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2 percent.

1% would be better.  0 would be even better.  Very difficult to achieve.

And in actuality, with a labor demand that exceeds employment, a slight deflation, over a decade, would be nice.

July 13, 2023

A study published in Joule maintains that ending fossil fuel use will impact the net worth of only the very wealthy.

Swiss voters have voted to reach net carbon zero by 2050.

July 16, 2023

Hollywood actors and writers are on strike, something that could carry on forever as far as I'm concerned, given the overall negative affects the industry has had.

July 19, 2023

Wheat prices have jumped 8% due to Russia pulling out of the Black Sea grain shipment arrangement.

July 20, 2023

NON-ENERGY MINERALS ON PUBLIC LANDS ARE A SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTOR TO ECONOMIC ACTIVITY AND JOBS

July 22, 2023

Fiat Chrysler Automobiles lost its renewed legal battle seeking to keep Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. from selling the redesigned Roxor off-road vehicle in the US.

The lawsuit claimed the designed trespass on protected elements of the Jeep.  I don't know the details of the suit, but the Roxor is pretty clearly a Jeep externally, and more particularly the old CJ-5.

July 28, 2023

Supreme Court rules in favor of Mountain Valley Pipeline  

Or;

Supreme Court rules in favor of Mountain Valley Pipeline

Thumbs Up Emoji Costs Canadian Farmer $82,000

August 3, 2023

Sales of Bud Light have fallen 10%.

August 4, 2023

Saudi Arabia extended production cuts.  U.S. oil prices are at a nine-month-high.

August 8, 2023

Two out of three of the major credit rating entities have downgraded the US rating from AAA+ to AAA. This occured to the lunacy of current American politics and the high U.S. debt.

And, locally:

Environmental Groups Lose Appeal Of Wyoming 3,500 Gas Well Project at Jonah Field

Last prior edition:

Subsidiarity Economics. The times more or less locally, Part XIII. The Economic Doomsday Clock