Let's be frank. If the Administration and Congress do not agree to raise the debt ceiling, sometime within the next two weeks, and probably this week, the nation, followed probably by the world, will go into a Depression.
Truly, this is absurd.
May 22, 2023
Talks between Kevin McCarthy and President Biden resume today.
It's an open question of to what extent McCarthy can even carry through with anything he agrees to, beholding as he is to the populist right. The Administration, for its part, has approached this looming deadline with some lack of urgency.
Should the country go over this cliff, that's what will be remembered about both of these individuals.
The State of Wyoming and University of Wyoming are partnering with Black Tooth Brewery for the issuance of Wyoming Golden Ale. The beer launches on May 27. Labels are brown and gold and feature the Wyoming bucking horse on them.
May 23, 2023
Yesterday's meeting between Biden and McCarthy late in the day was, "productive". It didn't result in a deal, however. The parties claim an outline of a prospective deal is there.
Republicans must #HoldTheLine on the debt ceiling to bring spending back to reality and restore fiscal sanity in DC. We spend $100+ billion more than federal tax revenues EVERY MONTH. Washington has a spending problem, not a revenue problem.
The irony of many of the followers is that if the nation goes into default, they are amongst the class that will be financially destroyed. It will be the middle class and lower middle class that will go almost certainly into poverty. The rich nearly always have vehicles to avoid destruction, and the upper middle class will survive. The other two demographics, however, from with the Freedom Caucus and Trumpites draw their support, will not. A further irony will be that they'll soon be seeking government relief.
Up until today, I'd have guessed that there was about a 60% chance that a deal would be reached this week, avoiding default. My present guess is that there is a 60% chance that this will not occur, and that this will be the last major holiday Americans will enjoy before the nation goes into a default and enters the worst national recession since the Great Depression. None of the Congressional power brokers or major Presidential candidates presently announced will survive it politically.
I hope I'm wrong.
May 24, cont:
Every Democrat has endorsed a discharge petition. In order to pass, it would require five Republicans to join them.
That isn't much, but it may be too many.
May 27, 2023
Janet Yellen now puts the default date on June 5, a move which will only fuel the fire as populists will proclaim the dates are all phony.
May 28, 2023
And a budget deal was reached and, presumably, disaster adverted.
This presuming the House and Senate agree with it, which isn't a safe assumption.
Some of the provisions.
The debt limit is suspended through 2025. My prediction is that if the Democrats take the legislative branch while also retaining the executive, they'll simply do away with it entirely. Frankly, maybe the GOP will under the same circumstances.
Non-discretionary spending, where the hard work really is, will be flat next year and increased by just 1% in 2025.
Defense spending increases next year by 3.3%, below the current rate of inflation.
There will be phased in requirements for work for recipients of the Supplemental Nutritional Assistance Program up to age 54, rather than the current age 49, with a set of exceptions.
Energy permitting will be sped up, even though there's somewhat of a glut of them now.
May 30, 2023
Congressman Hageman is amongst the far right wing Republicans that will not support the budget deal that has been arrived upon.
Failure to raise the debt ceiling by June 5 will destroy the economy and cause an economic depression. This seems evident, and it is hard to grasp how anyone could support that result.
Kevin McCarthy seems likely to lose his position as Speaker of the House over the matter.
May 31, 2023
Rep. Mark Alford of MissouriRep. Andy Biggs of ArizonaRep. Dan Bishop of North CarolinaRep. Mike Bost of IllinoisRep. Josh Brecheen of OklahomaRep. Vern Buchanan of FloridaRep. Ken Buck of ColoradoRep. Tim Burchett of TennesseeRep. Eric Burlison of MissouriRep. Kat Cammack of FloridaRep. Buddy Carter of TexasRep. Ben Cline of VirginiaRep. Michael Cloud of TexasRep. Andrew Clyde of GeorgiaRep. Mike Collins of GeorgiaRep. Eli Crane of ArizonaRep. Scott DesJarlais of TennesseeRep. Byron Donalds of FloridaRep. Pat Fallon of TexasRep. Brad Finstad of MinnesotaRep. Michelle Fischbach of MinnesotaRep. Russell Fry of South CarolinaRep. Mark Fulcher of IdahoRep. Matt Gaetz of FloridaRep. Tony Gonzales of TexasRep. Bob Good of VirginiaRep. Lance Gooden of TexasRep. Paul Gosar of ArizonaRep. Morgan Griffith of VirginiaRep. Michael Guest of MississippiRep. Harriet Hageman of WyomingRep. Andy Harris of MarylandRep. Diana Harshbarger of TennesseeRep. Kevin Hern of OklahomaRep. Clay Higgins of LouisianaRep. Wesley Hunt of TexasRep. Ronny Jackson of TexasRep. Darin LaHood of IllinoisRep. Debbie Lesko or ArizonaRep. Anna Paulina Luna of FloridaRep. Morgan Luttrell of TexasRep. Nancy Mace of South CarolinaRep. Tracey Mann of KansasRep. Brian Mast of FloridaRep. Rich McCormick of GeorgiaRep. Mary Miller of IllinoisRep. Cory Mills of FloridaRep. Alex Mooney of West VirginiaRep. Barry Moore of AlabamaRep. Nathaniel Moran of TexasRep. Ralph Norman of South CarolinaRep. Andy Ogles of TennesseeRep. Gary Palmer of AlabamaRep. Scott Perry of PennsylvaniaRep. Bill Posey of FloridaRep. John Rose of TennesseeRep. Matt Rosendale of MontanaRep. Chip Roy of TexasRep. George Santos of New YorkRep. Keith Self of TexasRep. Pete Sessions of TexasRep. Vicotira Spartz of IndianaRep. Greg Steube of FloridaRep. Dale Strong of AlabamaRep. Tom Tiffany of WisconsinRep. William Timmons of South CarolinaRep. Jeff Van Drew of New JerseyRep. Beth Van Duyne of TexasRep. Mike Waltz of FloridaRep. Randy Weber of TexasRep. Ryan Zinke of Montana
No mistake should be made about the no votes. The no votes were an outright vote to demolish the economy in the name of a radical concept of economy purity, whether the Congressman understands that or not. Some probably do, and some probably only voted no as they knew the item would pass, thereby giving them the ability to claim that they were voting to balance the budget back home, a claim that depends on voter ignorance on how the budget and economy works, a cynical reliance that has so far proved to be well-placed. The budget cannot be balanced in any way, shape, or form without raising taxes, or deeply cutting into Social Security and its related programs. Taxes need to be raised, and the current out of control deficits the country is running date back to a misbegotten concept in the Reagan era that by lowering taxes the government could be starved on the vine.
The matter is now in the Senate, where saving the economy will require quick action in a body that's dominated by the elderly. Moreover, on the Senate side, Gene Shepherd's maxim that fanatics meet each other in their fanaticism is proving true as the opponents of the bill include the members of the far left, and the far right, neither of which seem to grasp how budgets actually work.
June 1, cont.
Speaker of the House McCarthy stated today:
The president walled off all the others. The majority driver of the budget is mandatory spending. It’s Medicare, Social Security, interest on the debt.
That's 100% correct. As noted in a thread put up just today:
- 63% of the Federal Budget is non-discretionary. That money must be spent, so you can't touch that. No cuts. This category is Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and other mandatory programs.
- 30% is discretionary spending. You can cut that.
- 14% of the budget is on Defense. That's discretionary, so you can cut that. In FY 2023 the overall Defense was about $777 Billion.
- 16% of the budget it non defense discretionary, you can cut that. This is funding for every government program and office that isn't Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, or some other mandatory program, and isn't defense.
- The balance, about 7%, is net interest. You pretty much have to spend that.
- The total outlays, i.e., expenditures, going into the process, amount to $5.9 Trillion.
- The total revenues are $4.9 Trillion.
- A $1 Trillion deficit, therefore, exists going into the process.
Regarding revenues, we have this.
- 32% of all U.S. Revenue comes through payroll taxes.
- 53% of all U.S. Revenue comes from income taxes.
- 9% of all U.S. Revenue comes from corporate taxes.
- 6% of all U.S. Revenue comes from other sources, such as fees, specialized taxes, tariffs, and gift and estate taxes.
McCarthy has indicated a bipartisan committee is being formed to look at non-discretionary spending.
A couple of things.
He may need to say these things now, in order to keep his job as speaker, but he may well be damaging the ability to get the deal through the Senate, as the far left will definitely react.
Taxes are the solution to a lot of this.
June 2, 2023
Skywest to receive additional subsidy payment
If SkyWest, the Delta provider, does not find that this makes the run more popular, it'll likely be cut, and air travel to Salt Lake will end.
In an example of phenomenal speed, the U.S. Senate acted to save the global economy, and against the narrow mindedness of the far right and far left, and pass the budget compromise bill.
A depression has thugs been avoided.
The vote was 63 to 36.
Voting against the bill, on the Democratic side, were:
Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.)
Sen. Edward Markey (D-Mass.)
Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.)
Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.)
Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.)
I don't know much about Fetterman or anything about Markey or Merkley, but Warren is one of the most irritating members of the Senate and frequently strikes me as somebody who has a low grasp of things. Sanders is an economic wingnut.
More Republicans voted against the bill than voted for it. Voting now were:
Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.)
Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.)
Sen. Mike Braun (R-Ind.)
Sen. Katie Britt (R-Ala.)
Sen. Ted Budd (R-N.C.)
Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.)
Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.)
Sen. Mike Crapo (R-Idaho)
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas)
Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.)
Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.)
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.)
Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.)
Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-Miss.)
Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.)
Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.)
Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.)
Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah)
Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.)
Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.)
Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.)
Sen. Pete Ricketts (R-Neb.)
Sen. Jim Risch (R-Idaho)
Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.)
Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.)
Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.)
Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.)
Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Ala.)
Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.)
Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio)
Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.)
Some of the not votes are no surprise. Rand Paul, for example, is constantly on the goofball end of things. But some really are.
Both of Wyoming's Senators voted no in what was frankly probably solely a political calculation. John Barrasso, who has given the deal some praise earlier on, is close to Mitch McConnell, or he was until yesterday, McConnell is a shrewd politician and Barrasso may live to regret crossing him. That Lummis joined him shows that probably both of them added up the votes and knew it was safe, for right now, to take this position as they'd be in the minority and the bill would pass, thereby the country being saved, but they could go home to voters they presume to be ignorant on the real meaning of what was at stake.
Indeed, that might be the case for almost all of these Republicans, which shows that they may frankly be pandering towards what they think the GOP base thinks, that being now safe to do.
Marco Rubio is a genuine surprise.
JD Vance certainly is not.
Graham is not, and maybe the only easily understandable person on the Republican list, to the extent that I know these various individuals views.
Nebraska's Deb Fischer, based on her dull Twitter feed, is not, but is a disappointment anyhow.
Of note, now Wyoming's Congressional delegation has voted with the Democrats they claim to despise the most. I.e, Wyoming's far right Congressman voted the same way as Social Democrat Bernie Sanders.
As a minor aside, one "no" voter, by declaration, didn't vote n the House vote at all. Lauren Boebert of Colorado was absent.
June 2, 2023
Repeated questions are in the naure of "who won"? Well the American people did as the government won't slam to a halt, interest rates won't skyrocket, bonds won't descend to junk status, and massive numbers of Americans won't be unemployed in short order, including millions in the "let's default class" who didn't understand that they were in the group that would have been cast aside and discarded, some of them forever.
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