Showing posts with label Rasputita. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Rasputita. Show all posts

Friday, May 26, 2023

Cliffnotes of the Zeitgeist. XLVII. Aging, Russian military culture, Cinematic explortation of the 60s and 70s, The King of Canada.


Older America.

The median age of Americans is now 38.8, a figure brought up from last decade's 37.2 due to the obvious advance in aging of the Baby Boomers and the decline in the birth rate.

This is not a surprise, nor a disaster, contrary to how it seems to be sometimes portrayed.  The median will obviously advance into the 40s shortly.

This brings up this next item, from the Adam Smith blog:

Older World

Fertility rates and the conflict with the liberal vision

That headline wouldn't seem to make sense at first, but it actually does in context.

One of the things that people are wringing their hands about is the declining birth rate all over the world.

This brings up piles of incorrect analysis and ignored facts.  In the short term, by which we mean very short term, you can find plenty of pundits, often of the environmentalist inclination, still giving Malthusian warnings that we're about to breed ourselves into oblivion.  In fact, the data shows that in most regions of the glob, the trend is reversing, and in some very much reversed.

Which brings up the next example of hand wringing.   Conservatives at first, but now liberals as well, are worried about the demographic death of entire societies.  Some countries are now at the point where they're doing something that hasn't been done for eons, which is to take official measures to encourage couples to have children.

The Adam Smith institution isn't worked about it. They state:

This past century has included glorious events - the economic liberation of women for one. The result of that freedom and liberty is fewer children. Oh well, that’s just what humans want to do with their freedom and liberty.

It’s therefore the politics that needs to change, nothing else. For the people have spoken in their most intimate acts and decisions.

It might well be true that some don’t like that aggregate result, the society that results from freedom. But bully for the complaint, not the acts.

And there's a lot to that statement.

Frankly, almost all the angst over declining birth rates is misplaced.  Some of it isn't, but much of it is.  We're about to enter an era in which there will be much reduced employment in advanced societies, for one thing. Another is that frankly, societies with smaller populations are much nicer to live in, something that politicians in the US don't seem to grasp.  Lots of countries passed the level in which they were really nice to live in some time ago, including for that matter much of the US.  An overall declining population reverses that.

And it doesn't cause economic disaster, as so often predicted.  

At any rate, no matter how a person feels about it, what Adam Smith notes is in fact the case.  Reversing the trend at the present time is darned near impossible.  I think it will reverse, or stabilize, but not during my lifetime.  Probably when, for example, Europe reaches an overall population below 200,000,000, and North America's is about the same.   That's quite a ways off.

I'm not commenting, I'd note, on the moral aspects of this, which is in fact an aspect of it. But in an era in the West, at least, that large sections of the population can no longer actually tell what is naturally male and female, and we're back to the era in which "science" supports a societal movement that's wrong, much like it once did with Eugenics, race science, and many other now despised movements of the past that claimed scientific basis, we're probably not going to see much progress in this area, whatever progress would mean.

Speaking of a country with a declining population, and a tradition of baby bonuses, we have Russia, which gives us this. . . 

Field Wife

Not really a surprise.

'Field Wife': Officers Make Life Hell For Women In Russia's Military, A Female Medic Says

As with all things Russian military, pretty horrific, but with long-standing precedence in the Russian military.

We have a long paused thread on women in armed forces which will be unpopular, but we'd start off with this.  Mistreatment of women in any military is very common.  The conditions are prefect for it.

They're also perfect for giving rise to temptations that are hard to address and are embarrassing to address when they arise.  The U.S. Armed Forces have been working on this for decades, presenting it mostly as a male abuser on female victim situation, which is large true, but it wasn't all that long ago that the Marines had to come in and order female Marines to quit posting nude photos of themselves on line, such as a photo of a group of female Marines stationed in the Middle East running on a beach naked.  Everyone knows where this is going.

Suffice it to say, the circumstances of military life.  In spite of ongoing American hagiography about servicemen, Kipling's 1890 poem Tommy remains just as true for U.S. troops on some things, including this:

We aren't no thin red 'eroes, nor we aren't no blackguards too, 

But single men in barricks, most remarkable like you; 

An' if sometimes our conduck isn't all your fancy paints, 

Why, single men in barricks don't grow into plaster saints; 

This doesn't excuse the conduct, but eradicating it would require eradicating the situation, which we're not going to do.

And we aren't the Russians. The Russians aren't going to do any such thing with their military.

The recent war in Ukraine has shown, to a very large degree, that the Russian Army is the Red Army, and the Red Army was an overrated armed gang for parts of its history, and just overrated when that wasn't true.  It was an armed gang in the immediate post Civil War period, and certainly during the Second War.  Its aura of greatness was heavily impacted by Soviet propaganda.  In reality, rape was a common thing once it crossed out of Soviet territory and the taking of "field wives" very common.  So much so that it was a major source of domestic strife in the post-war Soviet Union, as men's actual wives knew that their husbands had engaged in both behaviors.

Believing that your enemy is impressive is wise, but in realty, the Red Army was not all that good in the Cold War, and the Russian Army isn't now.

We'll get back around to the Russian Army momentarily.  Sticking with our current theme. . . 

Exploitation suit dismissed.

I was going to report on this headline some time ago.

Olivia Hussey, then 15 and now 71, and Leonard Whiting, then 16 now 72, filed the suit in Los Angeles County Superior Court alleging sexual abuse, sexual harassment and fraud.

This in regard to their nude scenes in Romeo & Juliet.

They basically alleged that they were told that nudity they posed for would not actually be shown, when Hussey's breasts briefly were, and Whiting's butt was as well, and that they suffered years of shame as a result.  The suit sought punitive damages for an act which was illegal, at the time, under California's law, but which obviously nobody did anything about at the time.  They were asking for $100 million in punitive damages, but theoretically could receive more than $500 million to match what the film has earned since 1968, apparently.

If you are wondering how this could be brought now, California temporarily suspended the statute of limitations for older claims of child sexual abuse, which expired at the end of 2022.

This is an interesting development for a number of reasons.

One is that the nude scenes were noted at the time, but obviously, nothing was done about it.  Indeed, while the scenes noted above are the ones that have been picked up by the press, Hussey's also had at least one scene in which she rolls over while inclined, exposing her full bare back and rear.  At least one poster for the movie depicts an illustration of a nude Hussey on a nude Whiting, although you can't see the generally forbidden features.

This film isn't really unique in this regard.   A little later, but not much, a genuinely shocking scene was included in 1976's Ode To Bobby Joe, which is an overall horrifically bad film, but which had some popularity at the time.  The whole film is incredibly stupid, but it also features a nearly nude scene. The actors were in fact in their majority when it was filmed, but they're portraying, at least in the case of the female lead, underage teenagers.  It's really pretty sick overall.  

And recently, because of her bringing it back up, the public has had the opportunity to ponder the films Pretty Baby and The Blue Lagoon.  Ick.

If nothing else tells us something about the moral depravity of the late 60s and the entire 1970s.

Anyhow, I don't know much about Whiting, but Hussey went on to be a famous actress, somewhat discrediting the claim that they subsequently lost roles.  Indeed, given the moral climate of the late 60s and entire 70s, I doubt it.  Her career actually goes back to 1964, at which time she was very clearly still a child, and she was cast as the Virgin Mary in 1977, when she still would have been quite young.  Interesting, FWIW, her age in Romeo & Juliet would have been closer to what Mary's is speculated to have been at the time of the birth of Jesus, but the point is that her reputation hadn't been so tarnished as to keep her from getting the role of the most significant of all the female saints.

Oddly, FWIW, my high school English teacher, who later was arrested and convicted on what we might call a morals charge, didn't like her portrayal of the Virgin Mary, but did like the portrayal in Romeo & Juliet, in part due to his perception that her depictions in both were juvenile.

I haven't seen Jesus of Nazareth, that latter film, and I've only seen part of Romeo & Juliet.  I don't like Romeo & Juliet, the play, as it strikes me as boring and juvenile, and the parts of the movie I've seen, years ago, struck me as boring at the time.

Hussey also portrayed, Mother Teresa in a 2003 television movie,

Anyway, I feel they were exploited, if they brought their suit to address it a bit late. The California judge did not, stating that they, "have not put forth any authority showing the film here can be deemed to be sufficiently sexually suggestive as a matter of law to be held to be conclusively illegal.”

Too bad, in my view.

Maybe just bringing it to light, however, served an overall good purpose.

Let's go back to topics Slavic.

Where's the offensive?

In much of the Northern Hemisphere, it's late Spring, and we were expecting a Ukrainian offensive.

Well, maybe we'll get one, or maybe not (we probably will), but what seems to be the case is that spring came late to Ukraine, and everything is really muddy.  Therefore, the Rasputitia is still ongoing.

The Ukrainians, in the meantime, are using the time, it appears, to their training and logistical advantage.

Without getting into it too deeply, the Ukrainians also seem to have managed to cause the Russians to fight a 2023 version of the Battle of Khe Sanh.

Speaking of things with a long past. . . 

Charles the Third, by the Grace of God King of Canada and His other Realms and Territories, Head of the Commonwealth.’

Canada has changed the honorifics for the King, or Queen.  

The late Queen was known as ‘Queen Elizabeth the Second, by the Grace of God of the United Kingdom, Canada and Her other Realms and Territories Queen, Head of the Commonwealth, Defender of the Faith.

Changing the titles of people in this fashion says something.  And in this case, not something good.

Last prior edition:

Cliffnotes of the Zeitgeist. XLVI . To what extent is that new?

Wednesday, May 10, 2023

Wars and Rumors of War, 2023, Part 4. Бездоріжжя

April 6, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Бездоріжжя, mud season.

It stopped fighting on the Eastern Front during World War Two, and it bogged down the Russians last year in Ukraine. 

We ought to be in it now.

The much feared Russian spring offensive was a flop.  Much of the intense fighting took place in and around Bakmut, which is now effectively destroyed, but in spite of a titanic efforts, including the expenditure of many Wagner Group lives, it still isn't fully in Russian hands.  Russia is dragging early Cold War armor out of storage while the Ukrainian army is taking receipt of new Western armor.

Everyone expects a Ukrainian offensive in the near term. That may determine the outcome of the war.

A not too surprising item on the Russian forces:


April 7, 2023

Israel v. Hamas

Hamas fired rockets into Israel from Lebanon yesterday, and Israel retaliated with air strikes.

United States v. Taliban

The U.S. released its report on the withdrawal from Afghanistan:


Israel v. Hamas

Events repeated as six more rockets were fired from Syrian territory towards Israel, only two of which entered Israeli territory.  Israel responded with artillery fire, then an air strike.  Hamas is indicating it intends to deescalate the situation.

China v. Taiwan

China has been menacing the Taiwanese coasts with aircraft in the modern version of saber-rattling, upset by Speaker McCarthy's visit to Taiwan.

April 10, 2023

Pope Francis addressed the Russo Ukrainian War and the situation involving the Isreali's and Palestinians in an Easter homily.

Russo Ukrainian War

The US and Ukraine are dealing with leaked Pentagon information, which seems to be genuine, on the war in Ukraine and discussing a wide range of topics.

The Department of Justice has opened up an investigation on leaks from U.S. intelligence, which apparently provides information on Ukrainian and Russian forces, as well as information regarding some U.S. allies.

April 12, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

For some days now, the news has been circulating that: 
The US and Ukraine are dealing with leaked Pentagon information, which seems to be genuine, on the war in Ukraine and discussing a wide range of topics.

The Department of Justice has opened up an investigation on leaks from U.S. intelligence, which apparently provides information on Ukrainian and Russian forces, as well as information regarding some U.S. allies.

I haven't discussed here what those reports reveal, as it hasn't been very clear to me.  By and large, most of the information I've seen related to the leaks simply confirms news that had already been circulating, something that; 1) makes you wonder to what extent this was leaking before, and 2) makes you wonder if this is really a deception campaign. 

Indeed, on the latter, the Ukrainians have been remarkably adept at keeping their own plans secret.  Having said that, this would be a U.S. leak and Americans are phenomenally bad at keeping anything secret, which is one of the reasons the theory that the US has been keeping details of extraterrestrials secret for eighty years is absurd. We couldn't have kept that secret for thirty days.

Anyhow, more recent news stories have stated a couple of things that are of interest and haven't really been revealed before, and they're worth mentioning.

One is that the US is under equipping the Ukrainians.  We've put a lot of military hardware in their hands, but we have yet to make use of the Lend Lease bill that Congress passed and really get them everything we could.  As a result, there are real reasons to doubt that they could mount a successful Spring offensive.  And in some areas, we desperately undersupply them in critical weapons.

Another is a host of NATO armies do have boots on the ground, including the U.S.  The numbers are minuscule, with the country with the most, the UK, having less than 20 at any one time.

These are no doubt advisers, and I'd frankly wondered.  It makes sense that they'd be there, and now we know that they are.

A video is circulating of Russian soldiers beheading captured members of the Ukrainian Foreign Legion.  On the video, they can be heard saying "mercenaries".

April 13, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

The Washington Post reports the intelligence news leaks came from Thug Shaker Central Discord server and the person releasing them is a member, "OG", who works for U.S. intelligence in some capacity.

April 13, cont.

A1C Jack Teixeira, 21 years of age and a member of the Massachusetts Air National Guard, was arrested in connection with the intelligence leaks described above.

April 16, 2023

Sudan

Sudanese government and paramilitary forces have been engaged in heavy fighting in the nation's capital over the past couple of days.

Russo Ukrainian War

The war is beginning to have peculiar domestic impacts inside of Russia.

A debate over migration from Central Asia has commenced, with backers wanting to nearly triple immigration into Russia to stabilize a crashing population. This has sparked a reaction in that opponents are accusing the backers of wanting to basically sell out Russians to Central Asian cultures.

In the meantime, advertisements are now appearing on Russian television for Russian women to move to China as brides.

Russia is introducing conscription via electronic notices.

April 23, 2023

Sudan

The U.S. Embassy staff has been evacuated from Sudan and civilians are leaving the country.

Russo Ukrainian War

The Ukrainians have crossed the Dnipro near Kherson.

The Russian military is attempting to pressure Putin to go to defensive operations.

Russian authorities are oppressing Catholics in occupied areas, most recently occupying the Church of the Nativity of the Blessed Virgin Mary in occupied Berdyansk, accusing the priests there of hiding weapons.

April 24, 2023

Sudan

The US and UK airlifted their embassy staffs out of the country in military operations.

April 25, 2023

Sudan

Rival factions vying for control of the country, mostly through fighting in its capital Khartoum, have agreed to a US brokered three day ceasefire.

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukraine apparently had planned deep strikes inside of Russia on the anniversary of the invasion of the country, including on Moscow, but were restrained from doing so by the US.

Such an effort would likely have been a waste of munitions and only served to unite Russians more completely behind Putin.

April 30, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

A Russian ship that carries rescue submarines was photographed near the location of the Nord Stream gas pipeline prior to its explosion last September.

Hmmm. . . 

Ukrainian drones hit a Russian fuel depot in Crimea.

Sudan

The U.S. has evacuated private citizens from Sudan.

There's been some medial criticism that the US hasn't treated the situation in Sudan the same way it has the war in Ukraine. But how would it?  Intervene in a civil war?

May 2, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

The US believes that the Russians have sustained100,000 causalities, including 80,000 wounded and 20,000 killed, in the Battle of Bakhmut.  Half of the 20,000 dead were Wagner Group troops.

May 3, 2023

United States/Mexican Border

Not a war, but the US will deploy 1,500 troops on the border as Covid era emergency restrictions come off.

This is a topic for another post, but the problems with illegal immigration across the border are something the US just hasn't had the stomach or foresight to really deal with. Given the level of illegal immigration, and its deep existential nature, the time to do so, if its not going to amount to simply ordering the border and fundamentally changing the nature of the country by giving up on having any immigration controls at all, is right now.

Russo Ukrainian War

Trains have been targeted by blown rails in Crimea the last two days, a classic sabotage, resistance move, although in this instance it appears to be via drones.

May 4, 2023

Russian Ukrainian War

The Kremlin was attacked, oddly and ineffectively, by two drones. The respected ISW suspects this was a Russian false flag operation.

May 5, 2023

Russian Ukrainian War

Russia asserted the absurd hypothesis that the US was behind the drone strikes on the Kremlin.

More and more Russia looks like the gang that couldn't shoot straight.

The leader of the mercenary Wagner Group claimed he is pulling his troops out of Bakhmut next week.  A feud between the group and the Russian forces over supplies has been running for several days.

May 7, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

It appears that the Wagner Group will pull out of Bakhmut and that it will be replaced by Chechens.

At this point, the Wagner Group may have been effectively eliminated as a fighting force. 

Chechens haven't really been put to the test, but it's worth noting that dissident Chechens are already fighting for Ukraine.

May 11, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Russia had a much scaled down Victory Day celebration, that annual event in which Russia pretends the USSR single-handedly defeated its former ally Nazi Germany. This year's event featured a single tank, that being a World War Two vintage T-24.  Putin delivered a speech in which he acted as if the attempted rape of Ukraine was a war against the entire West, and the West's fault.

This parade does point out something we've noted before, that being that one of Russia's great liabilities in the modern era is believing that it won World War Two.  It did not.  Nor did the USSR do it single-handedly.  In reality, the USSR fought with millions of men who were not Russian, along with millions of Russians, most of whom were conscripted, and whom signficant numbers of which deserted and defected to the Nazis in spite of all that the Nazis fought for.  Moreover, this would have been a good parade to thrown an American made Sherman or British made Churchill tank into, sybolizing the extent to which the Soviets were saved by Western Allied materials.

Putin may imagine himself at war with the West, or state it as propganda, but in reality, the Soviets were Allies of Western fascism in the form of Nazism, until attacked by it, at which point they were saved, in no small part, by the Western democracies.

Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin used the occasion to mock Putin, which is a bit surprising, even though Prigozhin has been outspoken in his discontent.  Indeed, I'd regard it as dangerous even if Russian forces need Wagner's wholly disposable troops. Those troops, however, are now not going to be withdrawn from Bakhmut, that whole episode apparently being theater of some sort.

Russia has been engaging in large-scale missile attacks on Ukraine.  Drone attacks are being attempted as well, but Ukraine is having a lot of success in shooting drones down.


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