Why part five so soon?
Well, lots of reasons, including that these threads are filling up quickly.
But beyond that, a big one is that it appears that the war is definitely taking a new turn.
The Russian offensive has been an embarrassing failure in numerous ways. Thought of as a large scale armored blitzkrieg through inadequate Ukrainian forces, in fact it was held back everywhere and slowed down enormously where it wasn't. Ukrainian forces proved more than a match for Russian ones, which have proven to be largely inept and badly equipped. They've now been thrown back in the north and out of the that region of the country, with Russian units abandoning great masses of equipment that Russia will not be able to rapidly replace. Such material replacement as will be forthcoming, moreover, will simply be with the demonstrably bad equipment that's been failing in Ukraine.
The thought is that Russia will not concentrate its offensive in the East and Southeast, where it has already had a measure of success. Perhaps it's now aiming for a more limited goal.
Numerous Russian generals have been killed in the war, and as part of its renewed effort, it seems to be reshuffling its command structure. As noted herein, the other day:
Alexander Dvornikov, age 60, has been placed in commanad of the Russian effort. He has prior combat command experience from Syria. It is widely speculated that the Russians shall commences a renewed offensive in the east to consolidate their gains there.
Dvornikov has been known as the Butcher of Syria. That may be telling as well.
Russian troops withdrawing from the north have left a swath of murder and violence perpetrated against civilians. We've already cataloged that in a prior thread. With each passing day, it grows worse and gets harder to ignore. The missile strike on a train station the other day featured a missile with the words "for the children" written on it. In many areas, Russian troops seem to have murdered military aged men and raped women on a wide scale. This report surfaced from a Ukrainian journalist just the other day:
At least 25 women and girls, as young as 14, were raped by Russians in one basement in Bucha. Nine of them are pregnant. Russian soldiers said “they would rape them to the point where they wouldn't want sexual contact with any man, to prevent them from having Ukrainian children."
Since the Second World War, the debate has existed on whether the Red Army was a professional army or simply an armed mob. To at least some degree, it was both, getting better doctrinaly as the war ended. But at that same time, the Red Army committed the largest example of mass rape in modern history. Somewhat ignored after the war, the debate has always existed if this was an example of a breakdown in discipline or institutional revenge.
Whatever it was, it seems to have become institutionalized in the Russian army, which is made up of conscripts from the bottom of Russian society. Whether or not the Red Army was a gang of undisciplined, brutalized ignorant peasants, the modern Russian army seems to be made up of undisciplined, poorly trained, badly equipped, lowlifes.
The Ukrainian Army, in contrast, has gone from amateur to Western proficient in a little under a decade. It may very well beat the Russian army if it's given the equipment to do it, and right now that means armor and artillery. The Ukrainians themselves are not giving up anywhere, and even now the fighting goes on in occupied Mariupol.
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Poland, for its part, is supplying up to 100 T-72s to Ukraine, a very substantial contribution, although as we've learned so far in this war, Russian armor is junk. Of note, at least some of the Polish T72s are T72M1Rs, an upgraded variant with modern sights.
April 13, cont:
According to reports coming out today, Sweden will seek to join NATO in June, and it's likely Finland will apply around the same time.
This is really an amazing development. Both nations have maintained an officially neutral stance since World War Two, although not for the same reasons. Sweden has due to a traditional defense posture which allowed it to stay out of World War Two. Finland, of course, was invaded by the Soviet Union prior to World War Two and then became an Axis ally in an unsuccessful effort to recapture and keep the territory it has only recently given up to the Soviets. Its neutrality was enforced due to the bargain that it cut with the Soviet Union in order to remain an independent state.
Finland must feel that its security can no longer be guaranteed by its "Finlandization" arrangement, and Sweden must be nervous about Russian aspirations in the neighborhood as well. Additionally, in spite of being officially neutral, Sweden has long armed itself with NATO compliant standards and obviously assumed that it its territory was invaded NATO would come to its aid. With a longstanding position emphasizing global cooperation and peace, it must also feel that modern Russia has become a threat to its ideals.
April 14, 2022
The Russian Navy's Black Sea Flag Ship Moskva was hi in a Ukrainian missile strike, although the Russians deny that and attribute its current problems to an ammunition explosion, and is being withdrawn from service for repairs, maybe.
It could be worse than that, as it is admitted the ship capsized. Assuming it is still afloat, it could be perhaps righted, or perhaps towed, but this is a major Russian loss. The Russian Navy reported it sinking.
The Moskva was the ship which Ukrainian border guards on Snake Island told to the new famous line, "Russian warship, go fuck yourself" ("Русский военный корабль, иди на хуй").
Two Neptune missiles apparently struck the ship, with the same being launched from a Bayraktar TB2 drone. The Neptune is a Ukrainian designed missile that just entered service last year. The drone is a highly effective Turkish designed and manufactured pilotless aircraft.
The 40-year-old ship had been built for the Soviet Navy and was regarded as heavily armored. The Ukrainian missile strike on it suggest that no Russian ship is safe from attack, meaning that while the Russian navy is obviously free to dominate the surface of the Black Sea, its effective control of it is contested at this point, a significant factor given the Russian strategy of taking the southeastern Ukrainian coast.
Yesterday was also the date of first issuance of a Ukrainian postage stamp dedicated to the men on Snake Island, depicting a border guard giving a Russian ship the middle finger salute.
The strike on the Moskva yesterday was either the height of irony, or exceedingly well planned and executed, given the date. The Moskva appeared on the stamp.
April 14, cont.
And the Moskva sank.
April 16, 2022
Russia demanded that nations quit supplying weapons to Ukraine and vaguely threatened severe consequences if they do not.
Ukraine's president speculated that Russia may use chemical or tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine.
There are concerns that the Moskva may have housed nuclear weapons.
Ukrainians report that Russia failed to mobilize 26,000 reservists who evaded service to avoid being in the war.
Pope Francis proposed having Ukrainian and Russian families together in Good Friday services, which brought objections from Ukrainians mad at the implied suggestion of reconciliation, which of course it was. Services were modified at the Stations of the Cross so that a Russian woman and a Ukrainian women jointly held the cross at the 13th Station.
All of this brought objections from the Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church, part of the Catholic Church, and the Latin Rite in Ukraine in varying tones. The head of the Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church called the actions "untimely". A Latin Rite bishop termed them incomprehensible. They were neither, but it does show how views have evolved rapidly in Ukraine.
April 17, 2022
Russian Major General Vladimir Petrovich Frolov was killed in action, the eight Russian general to lose his life in the Russian assault on Ukraine.
April 18, 2022
While it will take some time to sort out, it appears that Russia has launched a largescale offensive in the east.
April 19, 2022
Reports are forthcoming of a large Russian offensive in the East, but details are so far fairly lacking.
Here's the situation map as of April 11, a little over a week ago:
Over the past week, the Ukrainian position in the East actually improved slightly.
One place where things have improved in an existential sense is Mariupol, where a remnant of Ukrainiain forces is still hanging on in spite of Russian surrender demands.
April 19, cont.
Russian actions in the Battle of the Donbas so far have been limited, but are expected to increase. The Ukrainian city of Kreminna has apparently been taken by the Russians.
April 20, 2022
NPR's State of Ukraine blog for this morning featured retired U.S. Army General Ben Hodges.
The interview was surprising. In it, Hodges expressed optomism regarding the Ukrainian effort, and also discussed how the Seige of Mariupol demonstrated Russian ineptitude. He predicted the collapse of the Russian Federation within the next five years.
April 21, 2022
Russian gains yesterday were minor. That's being attributed to probing, but there are other possible explanations. Mariupol still hadn't fallen.
Russia has publically declared that it will not storm the steel works where the defenders are holding out. Why Putin made this order public is subject to debate, but storming it would result in an outsized Russian loss and make the steel works, which has already taken on the character of the famed tractor works of Stalingrad, a Ukrainian symbol beyond that already obtained by the long and heroic defense.
Germany and the US are providing howitzers to Ukraine, with the Germans providing highly advanced 155 self propelled howitzers and the US providing 155 towed howitzers. Training of Ukrainian artillerymen is taking place outside of the country, in Europe.
One of the things of note here is that this means NATO powers are providing heavy weapons that are in NATO standard ammunition sizes, not Warsaw Pact sizes. They'll require Western logistical support to keep them in action. Additionally, this means Ukraine's military is now converting to NATO standards by default.
NATO logistical support has returned 20 Ukrainian aircraft to operational support.
Russia is planning political purges of its allies in the breakaway Donbas region for failing to produce military results. There are reports that it also is planning on conscripting Ukrainians for front line service, which will be a mistake if true. Libyan mercenaries are showing up in action, and in the Russian war dead.
A group of Ortodox bishops in communion with Moscow has demanded that Patriarch Kirill resign. The Patriarch has made statements supporting the Russian invasion which has angered elements of the Orthodox Church in Ukraine which retained communion with the Russian Orthodox Church.
The Russian Orthodox Church itself severed communion with the Greek Orthodox Metropolitan, who is regarded as being essentially the head of the Eastern Orthodox Church in some ways. This occured before the war when the Metropolitan recognized the Ukranian Orthodox Church as autocephalous. Since the start of the war the elements of Orthodoxy that had remained loyal to the Patriarch of Moscow have been rapidly moving away from Patriarch Kirill, who has already declared some of them to be in schism.
This has all brought into sharp focus some contemporary problems in Orthodoxy. The Russian Orthodox Church is the largest Orthodox Church, but here its head has seemingly been distinctly Russian. In the West, the Orthodox are moving away from national associations, recognizing that the day of national churches has essentially passed. In Ukraine, there have been calls for Kirill to condemn the invasion, which he has failed to do. This has revived notations that there are indications that Patriarch Kirill had an active KGB affiliation during the days of the Soviet Union, as did his predacessor Patriarch Alexy, the latter of which acknowledged that he had made compromises during the Soviet days that he thought necessary. Patriarch Alexy had asked for forgiveness, but Patriarch Kirill has not. The affiliation, to be clear, seems to have been in the case of churchmen of keeping the church in line so as to not become a threat to the state.
April 23, 2022
A Russian general made comments about the war providing access to Transnistria, a breakaway portion of Moldova, which have been widely interpreted as suggesting that this is the next stage of a Russian armed expansion, but careful analysis of it suggests that this is likely being misinterpreted.
Still, as I've noted here before, if I lead Moldova right now, which is Romanian in culture, I'd be petitioning Romania for annexation. Moldova only exists apart from Romania as Russia insists that it must.
The general did state that Russia wants to take full control of southern Ukraine.
A possible mass grave near Mariupol containg as many as 9,000 bodies was discovered through satellite imagry.
April 24, 2022
Contrary to what I'd guessed, and contrary to all military logic, Russian troops withdrawn from northern Ukraine are being redeployedin the East without rest, reorganization or refitting.
April 24, cont.
Two more Russian generals have been killed in Ukraine and a third wounded.
April 25, 2022
Ukraine hit Russian oil storage facilities today in Bryansk, Russia with drones. The strikes occured twelve hours ago and fires are still burning.
While it has not drawn much attention, the Russians have suffered a series of odd accidents in their infrastructure over the last few days.
April 26, 2022
The war in Ukraine is taking on a long range target characteristic. Russia hit feul and transportation targets with missles yesterday. Ukraine hit feul targets inside of Russia with something.
Something has been going on sabatogue wise inside of Russia as well. All sorts of industrial and transportation facilities have been suffering unexplained failures.
Ukrainian forces retaken territory north of Kherson and west of Izyum.
Acts of sabatogue against Russian related targets have been going on inside Transdniestria, the region of Moldova that broke away in support of, in essence, rejoining Russia. Attacking Moldova was referenced by a Russian general recently. Moldova convened its security council after a Russian language radio tower was attacked yesterday.
Gepard antiaricraft armor is being sent to Ukraine by Germany.
April 27, 2022
The Institute for the Study of War regards teh attacks in Transdniestria as Russian or Russian sympathetic false flag operations. Their speculation is that it has something to possibly do with an intended Russian attack on Odessa.
The Russians are cutting off gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria, both of which have refused to pay in rubles. Poland has indicated that it has been working on an alternative supply of gas for years and its not concerned.
April 29, 2022
Russia is protecting its Black Sea ports from threats of underwater, probably frogmen, attacks with trained dolphins.
Russia has been attacking Kyiv with rockets.
The Canadian House of Commons declared Russia to be guilty of genocide.
May 2, 2022
Russia has begun to transition areas they occupy to the Ruble, an almost certain sign that they intend to incorporate them or to set up sham states.
Nancy Pelosi and Congressional Democrats were in Kyiv yesterday.
May 4, 2022
A Ukrainian offensive has pushed the Russians 40 km back from Kharkiv.
May 5, 2022
We posted the map today as it depicts the result of Ukrainian counteroffensives and the stalled nature of Russian offensives. The Ukrainians have not been gaining much ground, but they are gaining ground. The Russians are not.
May 7, 2022
A Ukrainian offensive near Kharkiv is gaining ground and my push the Russians outside of artillery striking distance of the city shortly.
The Ukrainians hit the Russian ship Admiral Makarov with an anti-shipping missle.
May 8, 2022
Russo Ukrainian War
The Ukrainian offensive near Kharkiv is gaining ground, with the Russians blowing down bridges as they retreat.
There are very strong indicators that the Russian government is set to make a series of declarations tomorrow on "Victory Day", the day commemorating the victory over Germany in World War Two. What these will be is not yet clear, but it seems clear that something will occur. Something almost has to given the place the day holds in Russian culture.
Afghanistan
The Taliban have returned to the policy of requiring all women in the country to wear burkas if possilbe, or at least wear clothing that reveals only their eyes.
That serves, of course, as a clear indicator the direciton the country is headed towards, or rather back towards.
May 10, 2022
Russo Ukrainian War
Contrary to expectations, Russia's May 9 Victory Day was not marked by anything particularly noteworthy coming from Russia.
Reports now indicate that Russian troops are disobeying the orders of their officers and are firing on the tires of their own vehicles to prevent them from going into combat.
President Biden signed a Lend Lease law into effect.
May 11, 2022
For the first time since 1945, Finland will abandon neutrality and join an alliance, that alliance being NATO.
This is a huge change in Finland's position and indeed in European strategic alignment.
May 13, 2022
The Russians are reportedly using semiconductors from kitchen appliances in military equipment now, as they have run out of an adequate supply of them due to sanctions.
Current Ukrainian offensive operations appear calculated to split Russian forces in Ukraine in two, basically right down the middle of their occupation. Reports hold that the Ukrainians have deployed new French acquired artillery in this effort.
A Russian soldier has appeared in a Ukrainian court on charges of war crimes.
Senator Rand Paul, a libertarian and fiscal conservative, has pushed Ukraine's military aid package that is presently in Congress into next week through a procedural move, essentially making himself the modern equivalent of America First Charles Lindbergh in a way. Paul, it might be noted, has endorsed Wyoming candidate Harriet Hageman, although his endorsement has been pretty much ignored locally.
Vatican Secretary of State Cardinal Pietro Parolin has indicated that supplying arms to Ukraine is morally legitimate under the Catholic Just War theory, albeit with the conditions of proportionality applying. Pope Francis has been very critical of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and has discussed the war with Russian Orthodox Patriarch Kirill. Indeed, that became news when Pope Francis stated that he had told the Patriarch to quit being "Putin's alter boy", which caused the Patriarch to give an alternative account of their discussion.
May 16, 2022
Ukranian troops advancing east from Kharkiv have reached the Russian border.
Russian losses have been so severe that it depleted its reserve manpower pool and is now making up replacement units by putting together depleted elements of other units, including private military companies. It's even resorted to putting paratroopers into depleted contract military companies, indicating a severe manpower crisis.
McDonald's is selling its stores in Russia and leaving the country.
Sweden will also be petitioning to join NATO, abandoning a position of neutrality held since the Napoleonic Wars.
May 17, 2022
Ukraine was allowed to evacuate its remaining forces from the Azoz steel plant in Mariupol, a remarkable concession from the Russians, who simply could not take it. This means, of course, that the Russians have finally taken Mariupol, which was a goal they have been working on nearly the entire war.
They will now attempt to reopen the port.
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