Rufus T. Firefly: Gentlemen, Chicolini here may talk like an idiot, and look like an idiot, but don't let that fool you: he really is an idiot.
Duck Soup.
Trump doing is signature creepy old guy dance..
June 4, 2026
Tom Barrett of Michigan, Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania, Warren Davidson of Ohio and Thomas Massie of Kentucky crossed party lines to vote with Democrats in favor of the resolution to end the illegal assault on Iran.
The measure goes on to the Senate. We'll see what happens there, as Trump's stabbed some Senators in the back, and they're ready to gut him like a fish now.
The action of the Senators is based on conscience. I believe its the right one, but it also serves to remind us that we're now in an incredibly bad spot in regard to the war against Iran, and in the Middle East in general.
It should have been obvious to anyone that decapitating the Iranian regime would not lead to a liberal democracy. The Iranian people have no real ability to overthrow their government and when they tried before the war, after we urged it, they were mowed down. It's the IRGC that has the guns.
When the July 20 plotters mapped out their attempt to kill Hitler, in the attempt that almost worked, it involved wiping out the Nazi state. The idea wasn't just to kill Hitler, but to remove the Nazis in every form. Men like Himmler, Goebbels and Goering would have ended up against a wall had the plot succeeded. Removing those in the seat of power just opens up a vacuum for those positions to be filled. Moreover, in the Iranian case, they'd planned for such eventualities, which we should have known as prior selective US assassinations didn't change the direction of the regime at all.
Moreover, the regime has no place to go. It's not as if they can walk out of their offices retire to cabbage farms. They have to remain in power. Like the German SS in 1945, the IRGC has no place to go. It has to keep the regime in power.
All of this is obvious.
It was likewise obvious that Iran would close the Strait of Hormuz and that would so severely disrupt the world's petroleum supplies that it would actually boost the move to green energy, although people still have really awakened to that reality.
And it should have been obvious that those advocating for the war had ulterior agendas. Israel doesn't care about U.S. global considerations and is well aware that the U.S. is a declining power. Convincing a weak minded Trump to go to war with Iran was completely in its interest, and it doesn't care about considerations about defending Taiwan or South Korea.
Pete Hegseth and the pack of far right wing Evangelical would be Crusaders don't care what this will cost. In the view of those in that minoritarian group of American Protestants, a big war will bring on the end of the world and the return of Christ, now. They don't worry about the Just War Theory, as their convinced this is a Divinely ordained mission.
And, it's obvious right now, that the Iranian regime can in fact outwait Trump and its doing it.
The war can only come to an end in one of two ways. We quit, and leave the mess we created as it is, which is a complete and total defeat, or we undertake a largescale ground invasion. Those are the only two options.
The second one leaves open the question of should a country pursue a victory against a legitimate enemy when the war started illegally. It's only a hypothetical question, however, as Trump, who was so stupid as to believe the war would end in a few days, does not have the stomach for that. That really would cause there to be a vote on the war and he knows he'd loose it.
That means the only other option for ending the war is simply leaving, which is a complete defeat. Trump also can't bring himself to do that, as he can't stand the thought that he is what he is, a loser.
So, Trump's option will be increasingly just to ignore the war. He basically just hopes it will go away. In the meantime, like Hitler in the bunker, he plays with models of a reimagined gaudy capital city.
And increasingly look like this to the world.
June 8, 2026
Iran launched something on the order of thirty ballistic missiles on Israel today, and Israel retaliated with air strikes on Iran.
Israel also hit sites in Lebanon.
June 9, 2026
Iran shot down a U.S. helicopter, the US retaliated with airstrikes
Iran hit a U.S. airbase in eastern Jordan with ballistic missiles.
June 11, 2026
The IRGC has announced its shutting down the Strait of Hormuz.
Pete Hegseth is at Guantanamo Bay being a blowhard.
June 12, 2026
Trump claims a deal has been worked out, Iran says no final deal has been reached.
Trump claims he called off massive attacks. Iran claims it controls the Straits of Hormuz.
Frankly, Iranian state media is much more reliable than the stream of crap that comes out of the Oval Office, so we don't really know what's going on. This is the 39th time in the war that Trump has claimed a deal is close, so you have to be extremely gullible to believe what he's saying at this point. It's not even at the "trust but verify" level, so much as the distrust and see what happens in a day or two level.
June 13, 2026
Leaked details of the Trump deal with Iran show Iran pretty much prevailing in the agreement. There will be, under the agreement, 60 days in which to discuss nuclear topics, which means that if Iran chooses not to resolve them, they won't be resolved. Once the war is stopped, and it never should have started, there will be no stomach for resuming it.
June 14, 2026
In the "I'll believe it when I see it" category, a CST headline:
TRUMP: PEACE DEAL TO BE SIGNED SUNDAY
We'll see.
cont:
Iranian sources have indicated that there is a deal immanent, and it will include:
- Fully opening the Strait of Hormuz immediately
- U.S. to lift naval blockade within 30 days
- No new sanctions imposed while negotiations continue
- The U.S. will suspend current sanctions, allowing Iranian oil to be openly sold
- $25 billion in Iranian assets to be unfrozen, including direct cash transfers
- Formation of an economic development and reconstruction plan
- Iran agrees it will neither produce nor acquire nuclear weapons
- Fate of the nuclear program, including stockpile of highly enriched uranium, to be negotiated and finalized within 60 days
- Full sanctions relief following a final agreement in 60 days
This is an overview, so it doesn't say anything about anything else. Some of these things can just happen, but the big thing the war may have been over (it was never clear what it was over), that being the nuclear program is really vague. Nothing will mean anything unless there's a way to verify what Iran is doing.
The $25B in frozen assets is about 1/4 the total amount that's frozen, I think. That's a major concession by the United States as the assets have been frozen since 1979.
The war has been completely illegal all along. Now the question is whether the war was worth it. It really doesn't seem that this achieved anything that the Obama era agreement hadn't. It might actually achieve less.
That it's time for Trump's birthday is interesting. I suspect a bit of political theater there. His administration will be declaring it a great victory, but it's pretty clear it isn't. The Iranian regime is more hard line than it was before, and its more in control than it was before. It actually retains a significant missile inventory, and there's no reason to believe it won't resume its past behavior pretty quickly.
June 15, 2026
So it seems like a deal has been reached, but it seems that for the most part the war didn't achieve much over what Obama's had, with no illegal war.
More than that, Iran's government is now more hardline than it was before, and they'll be receiving a massive infusion of cash.
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