Showing posts with label Iran. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Iran. Show all posts

Friday, April 26, 2024

Wars and Rumors of War, 2024. Part 5. A Wider War.

You will hear of wars and rumors of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed. Such things must happen, but the end is still to come. Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom.

Matthew, Chapter 24.

War is an ugly thing, but not the ugliest of things. The decayed and degraded state of moral and patriotic feeling which thinks that nothing is worth war is much worse.

John Stuart Mill


April 14, 2024.

The Middle Eastern War.

This was mentioned yesterday, but in North America we're waking up to the news that Iran, the supplier of drones to Russia, used a huge number of drones in an airborne assault on Israel yesterday which was combined with missiles.

Because that's going to serve somebody's interest?

This was retaliatory in nature, of course, but it was also monumentally stupid on the part of Iran.

Almost all the Iranian munitions were shot down.  The few that got through caused minor damage. The US participated in the airborne defense.

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukraine's defense chief warned that its battlefield situation has significantly worsened in recent days.

Mike Johnson, pick up your copy of John Stuart Mill.

April 17, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukrainian forces destroy Russian air defense systems in Crimea

The Middle Eastern War

Israel has carried out a retaliatory air strke on Iran.  The details are sketchy at this time, but drones appear to be involved.

A big difference appears to be that Israel hit its targets, as opposed to Iran, which demonostrated an inability to get theirs through, although the US, UK and France helped Israel in its defense.

China v. US

A hacking campaign by China called Volt Typhoon has gained access to telecommunications, energy, water and 23 pipeline operators targeted, amongst other infrastrucure.

It should be obvious that China is preparing for war against the US, which will come over Taiwan.

April 19, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War/Middle Eastern War/China v. Taiwan.

Massively belatedly, the House of Representatives voted 316-94 to advance military aid to Ukraine, Taiwan and Israel.  A final vote will come on Saturday, as this was procedural.

Isolationist are having a fit and will now take a run at removing Speaker Johnson, the latter having found his courage this week, at long last.

April 20, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War/Middle Eastern War/China v. Taiwan.

After months of delay at the hands of a bloc of ultraconservative Republicans, the package drew overwhelming bipartisan support, reflecting broad consensus.

About bloody time, and better late than never, assuming it's not too late.

Finally, Mike Johnson, who apparently prayed about the matter, found his courage.

April 22, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

In listing to This Week, I learned that a majority of GOP Congressman voted against aid to Ukraine.

Shameful.

Some of the commentary on the weekend shows suggest that Speaker Johnson may have changed his mind in part because of intelligence briefings. If that's the case, we ought to be truly fearful of Russia winning the war.

MJT tried to insert an amendment into the bill which would have required all those who voted for the bill to become Ukrainian conscripts.

Middle Eastern War

Air strikes in Razah killed 22 people.

The US is imposing sanctions on the Netzah Yehuda Battalion, a unit for ultra Orthodox Jews, most of whom do not serve in the Israeli military and who are exempted from universal male conscription that the country generally imposes.

It's difficult to see how attempting to sanction a single unit would work.

April 24, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Pro Palestinian demonstrations are causing havoc across campuses in the US as protesters.

Anti-Semitic elements in these protests have been very notable, including delusional ones such as LGBTQ supporting protesters supporting, effectively, Hamas, even though Hamas would likely put a 9mm to their heads if they were in Palestine.

Stay tuned to see if the Horst Wessel song reappears.

Russo Ukrainian War

The aid bill passed the Senate 79 to 18.  Wyoming's two Senators, who normally would have voted yes, voted no, so they can bow down to the Populist Party.

Iran v. Everyone

Four Iranians were arrested for a hacking scheme aimed at Federal agencies.

April 25, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukraine deployed M57A1 ATACMS ballistic missiles against Russian targets in Crimea.  The new missiles vastly increase Ukraine's ability to hit deep into Russian held territory.


The sudden appearance of the missiles suggest that Ukraine was supplied them prior to the recent funding bill, which was only signed into law yesterday, but withheld use of them until the bill was passed.

Russia, regarding the bill, predictably squealed like a stuck pig or like Donald Trump complaining about being on trial for his prurient interest, while it itself has used long range missiles fairly indiscriminately in Ukraine.

Pope Francis in an interview with CBS News declared that a "negotiated peace is better than a war without end", calling on warring parties in Ukraine and the Middle East to negotiate.

Of interset here, perhaps, the Vatican recently released its "Declaration of the Dicastery for the Doctrine of the Faith “Dignitas Infinita” on Human Dignity”, the same appearing on April 8.  While I've noted it elsewhere, I suspect that Catholics in particular, or at least some Catholics, have grown so weary of documents issued by Pope Francis that they're being ignored and dreaded at this point.  Indeed, many Catholics are holding their breath on what will come out of the Synod on Snyodality.  Anyhow, Dignatas Infinita, which people were holding their breath on before it came out (it had been announced that something was coming out) didn't receive very much attention from the world at large and frankly from Catholics as well, as sure sign that just too darned much is being generated by this Papacy.

What notice it drew from Catholic circles tended to focus on the concept of "infinite dignity", and what that meant.  I haven't followed the results of that, and there wasn't that much discussion of it to start with.  The Pope, however, drew a lot of flak for his statements on transgenderism, which are perfectly in line with Catholic beliefs.  We'll deal with that elsewhere.

What surprisingly didn't receive much attention was his statements on war, which were:

War

38. Another tragedy that denies human dignity, both in the past and today, is war: “War, terrorist attacks, racial or religious persecution, and many other affronts to human dignity […] ‘have become so common as to constitute a real ‘third world war’ fought piecemeal.’”[64] With its trail of destruction and suffering, war attacks human dignity in both the short and long term: “While reaffirming the inalienable right to self-defense and the responsibility to protect those whose lives are threatened, we must acknowledge that war is always a ‘defeat of humanity.’ No war is worth the tears of a mother who has seen her child mutilated or killed; no war is worth the loss of the life of even one human being, a sacred being created in the image and likeness of the Creator; no war is worth the poisoning of our common home; and no war is worth the despair of those who are forced to leave their homeland and are deprived, from one moment to the next, of their home and all the family, friendship, social and cultural ties that have been built up, sometimes over generations.”[65] All wars, by the mere fact that they contradict human dignity, are “conflicts that will not solve problems but only increase them.”[66] This point is even more critical in our time when it has become commonplace for so many innocent civilians to perish beyond the confines of a battlefield.

39. Therefore, even today, the Church cannot but make her own the words of the Pontiffs, repeating with Pope St. Paul VI: “jamais plus la guerre, jamais plus la guerre!” [“never again war, never again war!”].[67] Moreover, together with Pope St. John Paul II, the Church pleas “in the name of God and in the name of man: Do not kill! Do not prepare destruction and extermination for people! Think of your brothers and sisters who are suffering hunger and misery! Respect each one’s dignity and freedom!”[68] As much now as ever, this is the cry of the Church and of all humanity. Pope Francis underscores this by stating, “We can no longer think of war as a solution because its risks will probably always be greater than its supposed benefits. In view of this, it is very difficult nowadays to invoke the rational criteria elaborated in earlier centuries to speak of the possibility of a ‘just war.’ Never again war!”[69] Since humanity often falls back into the same mistakes of the past, “in order to make peace a reality, we must move away from the logic of the legitimacy of war.”[70] The intimate relationship between faith and human dignity means it would be contradictory for war to be based on religious convictions: “The one who calls upon God’s name to justify terrorism, violence, and war does not follow God’s path. War in the name of religion becomes a war against religion itself.”[71]

These statements are not really novel, but they certainly call into question the concept of a just war, while not abrogating it completely.  This is interesting as well as certainly in the region itself the Ukrainian Catholic Church, if not backing the war openly, seems to be generally. 

I would note here something that's widely misunderstood.  Wars today, while they do feature civilian death, and Russia certainly has been indiscriminate in its use of airborne munitions on Ukraine, and Israel has been leveling parts of Gaza, is actually less destructive on civilians that it was some 80 years ago and that is the overall actual trend.

April 26, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Hamas proposed to lay down its arms if an independent Palestinian state, which we have a long dormant thread in the hopper on, were to be created.

More specifically, it proposed:

“a fully sovereign Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza Strip and the return of Palestinian refugees in accordance with the international resolutions,”

Israel is unlikely to accept that, but more than that, is such a tiny rump state even viable? 

Meanwhile, Hamas and Palestinian groups have shelled the construction area for the humanitarian pier.

Related threads:

Iron Domes and Chutzpah





Last prior edition:

Wars and Rumors of War, 2024. Part 4. "Maybe I shall find them among the dead."

Monday, April 15, 2024

Getting into other people's fights.

In our current era, there appear to be two ironclad rules of Republican politics.  These are 1) you criticize Biden for everything, and 2) you endorse Donald Trump even though he should be in prison.

On the weekend shows, specifically Meet The Press, one GOP personage back in D.C. blamed President Biden for Iran's actions in the shadow war between Israel and Iran.  The logic was that as Iran has been hitting US sites in Syria via Iranian proxies, we should have massively retaliated.

We have been retaliating.  The only thing we could do that we haven't would be to strike Iran inside of Iran.  That would have been over the top.  Now, that's exactly what this person wants us to do.  Irrespective of what Israel does, he wants us to hit Iran in Iran.

Isn't this the same party that chickened out in Afghanistan and surrendered to the Taliban (which interestingly doesn't like Iran) on the basis that we need to end "forever wars"?

So, we surrendered to one group of Islamic fundamentalist so they could establish a theocracy, and now we're going to take on another one?

Eh?

And why do we need to do this when it seems like Israel is pretty capable of defending itself.  Most in D.C. right now are complaining that Israel is going too far in Gaza.  That can be debated, but they certainly seem to be able to more than defend themselves, granted with U.S. material aid.

Meanwhile, a democratic county that is fighting one of the largest armies in the world can't get our  help, because Donald Trump is a fanboy of the autocratic opposition.

There's no consistency in this at all.  If it makes sense for us to get into a shooting war of some sort over the skies of Iran because they're a lethal annoyance that has staged a massive rocket attack on a democratic state, well then it makes just as much sense to do that in Ukraine.  Probably more sense, due to the civilian death toll that's resulted in.

If it doesn't make sense for Ukraine, it doesn't make sense for Israel either.

And let's be honest.  Ukraine isn't getting our aid right now because of Donald Trump.  That's the only reason.   Israel is getting help as it's always gotten our help, in part, but also because a certain part of the rising Evangelical populist wing of the GOP has certain millennial and religious ideas about that.

I'm not saying don't aid Israel.  And frankly, I'm aghast at the people who are effectively supporting Hamas, which is a brutal terrorist organization.  Nobody is looking at a long term solution, and there is one, but its Wilsonian and won't make every feel good.  What I am saying is that the GOP position right now is completely hypocritical.

Oh, and does the GOP dislike or like Taiwan right now?  I've lost track.  Maybe somebody better ask Don during a break in his trial.

Iron Domes and Chutzpah

“Iran lobbed 200+ missiles at Israel yesterday and we’re really worried that Israel will use this as an excuse to start a war”

What that lacks in intelligence, it makes up for in consistency: no matter what they are forced to endure, it’s somehow always the fault of the Jews.

Fr. Joseph Krupp on Twitter, with the quoted text paraphrasing the meaning of two Arab officials worrying that Israel will respond.

We should note that the Iranian assault was itself a response to the Israeli targeting the consular section of the Iranian Embassy in Syria to kill a senior member of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.  Attacking an embassy is classically regarded as an act of war.

Of course, Iran and Israel have been in a shadow war for years. 

Israel should not have done that.  But the Iranian response was inept.  Since they engaged in it, there's been a lot of commentary to the effect that Israel should not respond.

Really? To an assault like that?  That's asking for a lot.

Basically, where this is at is here, by analogy.  If Japan, on December 7, 1941, had lost all of its aircraft carriers and none of the ships in Pearl Harbor had been sunk, or even seriously damaged, would Japan have been allowed to come back with, "well there, we certainly taught you a lesson, now let's not overreact".

I doubt it.

Lots of people are hoping Israel doesn't respond, and it might not.  Iran should certainly hope that, as its airborne offensive capabilities have been proven to be worthless against Israel and there's now an open question about what its defense capabilities are like.  If it can't stop a serious Israeli counterstrike, it's fresh meat for the dogs in the neighborhood.  "Oh look. . . Iran is bleeding. . . "

What this also shows is what Ukraine could do if it was provided with enough air defenses to take on Russian strikes. Russia's capabilities in this area really aren't much better than Iran's, and indeed, they're using Iranian drones.

Tuesday, February 13, 2024

Wars and Rumors of War, 2024. Part 2. Only the dead


Mid-Holocene rock painting depiction of archers fighting, Cueva del Roure, Spain.
You will hear of wars and rumors of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed. Such things must happen, but the end is still to come. Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom.
Matthew, Chapter 24.
Only the dead have seen the end of war.
George Santayana

February 1, 2024

Iran v. The United States

In retaliation for the death of three servicemen in Jordan, and implicitly the ongoing Iranian misbehavior through their Houthi proxies, and others, the US is going to engage in retaliatory strikes, including cyber strikes, outside of Iran, over a period of weeks.

This is a gigantic escalation in the ongoing Middle Eastern conflict, and frankly I feel it's an error.  It's a big step towards war.

Not that this expresses sympathy with Iran, a dangerous theocracy basically at war with the world.

Ironically, it might be noted, Republicans have been shilling for a greater response.  In response to this, for example, Nebraska Republican Senator Deb Fischer seemed to complain it was too late.  Keeping track of wars that the GOP feels we're not in enough, or are in way too much, is becoming a chore.

Perhaps showing that Biden is on to something, Iranian backed militia Hezbollah has indicated it will knock off attacks on US installations.  Iran has indicated it does not want war, but in the current Administration's view, it may have basically crossed that bridge already.  The US does not seem to be willing to let the low grade conflict to continue, and it's hard to see Iran agreeing to back down.

Hamas v. Israel

Israel is flooding Hamas tunnels.

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukraine hit Crimea with a missile strike yesterday.

Cont:  

Iran v. The United States

The administration wants to avoid "escalation" — but it's time to realize that our enemies have already escalated. The only attacks President Biden is deterring are our own.

My gosh, this has a Gulf of Tonkin feel to it.

Cont: 

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukraine sinks Russian missile corvette

Hamas Isreali War

Executive Order on Imposing Certain Sanctions on Persons Undermining Peace, Security, and Stability in the West Bank


     By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, including the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (50 U.S.C. 1701 et seq.) (IEEPA), the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. 1601 et seq.) (NEA), section 212(f) and section 215(a) of the Immigration and Nationality Act of 1952 (8 U.S.C. 1182(f) and 8 U.S.C. 1185(a)), and section 301 of title 3, United States Code,

     I, JOSEPH R. BIDEN JR., President of the United States of America, find that the situation in the West Bank — in particular high levels of extremist settler violence, forced displacement of people and villages, and property destruction — has reached intolerable levels and constitutes a serious threat to the peace, security, and stability of the West Bank and Gaza, Israel, and the broader Middle East region.  These actions undermine the foreign policy objectives of the United States, including the viability of a two-state solution and ensuring Israelis and Palestinians can attain equal measures of security, prosperity, and freedom.  They also undermine the security of Israel and have the potential to lead to broader regional destabilization across the Middle East, threatening United States personnel and interests.  For these reasons, these actions constitute an unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security and foreign policy of the United States.  I hereby declare a national emergency to deal with that threat.  Accordingly, I hereby order:

     Section 1.  All property and interests in property that are in the United States, that hereafter come within the United States, or that are or hereafter come within the possession or control of any United States person, including any foreign branch, of the following persons are blocked and may not be transferred, paid, exported, withdrawn, or otherwise dealt in:

     (a)  any foreign person determined by the Secretary of State, in consultation with the Secretary of the Treasury, or the Secretary of the Treasury, in consultation with the Secretary of State:

          (i)    to be responsible for or complicit in, or to have directly or indirectly engaged or attempted to engage in, any of the following:

               (A)  actions — including directing, enacting, implementing, enforcing, or failing to enforce policies — that threaten the peace, security, or stability of the West Bank; or

               (B)  planning, ordering, otherwise directing, or participating in any of the following actions affecting the West Bank:

                    (1)  an act of violence or threat of violence targeting civilians;

                    (2)  efforts to place civilians in reasonable fear of violence with the purpose or effect of necessitating a change of residence to avoid such violence;

                    (3)  property destruction; or

                    (4)  seizure or dispossession of property by private actors;

          (ii)   to be or have been a leader or official of:

               (A)  an entity, including any government entity, that has engaged in, or whose members have engaged in, any of the activities described in subsections (a) or (b) of this section related to the leader’s or official’s tenure; or

               (B)  an entity whose property and interests in property are blocked pursuant to this order as a result of activities relating to the leader’s or official’s tenure;

          (iii)  to have materially assisted, sponsored, or provided financial, material, or technological support for, or goods or services to or in support of, any person blocked pursuant to this order; or

          (iv)   to be owned or controlled by, or to have acted or purported to act for or on behalf of, directly or indirectly, any person blocked pursuant to this order; or

     (b)  any foreign person determined by the Secretary of State, in consultation with the Secretary of the Treasury:

          (i)   to have committed or have attempted to commit, to pose a significant risk of committing, or to have participated in training to commit acts of terrorism affecting the West Bank; or

          (ii)  to be a leader or official of an entity sanctioned pursuant to subsection (b)(i) of this section.

     Sec. 2.  The prohibitions in section 1 of this order apply except to the extent provided by statutes, or in regulations, orders, directives, or licenses that may be issued pursuant to this order, and notwithstanding any contract entered into or any license or permit granted before the date of this order. 

     Sec. 3.  The prohibitions in section 1 of this order include:

     (a)  the making of any contribution or provision of funds, goods, or services by, to, or for the benefit of any person whose property and interests in property are blocked pursuant to this order; and

     (b)  the receipt of any contribution or provision of funds, goods, or services from any such person.

     Sec. 4.  (a)  The unrestricted immigrant and nonimmigrant entry into the United States of noncitizens determined to meet one or more of the criteria in section 1 of this order would be detrimental to the interests of the United States, and the entry of such persons into the United States, as immigrants or nonimmigrants, is hereby suspended, except when the Secretary of State or the Secretary of Homeland Security, as appropriate, determines that the person’s entry would not be contrary to the interests of the United States, including when the Secretary of State or the Secretary of Homeland Security, as appropriate, so determines, based on a recommendation of the Attorney General, that the person’s entry would further important United States law enforcement objectives.

     (b)  The Secretary of State shall implement this order as it applies to visas pursuant to such procedures as the Secretary of State, in consultation with the Secretary of Homeland Security, may establish.

     (c)  The Secretary of Homeland Security shall implement this order as it applies to the entry of noncitizens pursuant to such procedures as the Secretary of Homeland Security, in consultation with the Secretary of State, may establish.

     (d)  Such persons shall be treated by this section in the same manner as persons covered by section 1 of Proclamation 8693 of July 24, 2011 (Suspension of Entry of Aliens Subject to United Nations Security Council Travel Bans and International Emergency Economic Powers Act Sanctions).

     Sec. 5.  (a)  Any transaction that evades or avoids, has the purpose of evading or avoiding, causes a violation of, or attempts to violate any of the prohibitions set forth in this order is prohibited.

     (b)  Any conspiracy formed to violate any of the prohibitions set forth in this order is prohibited.

     Sec. 6.  I hereby determine that the making of donations of the types of articles specified in section 203(b)(2) of IEEPA (50 U.S.C. 1702(b)) by, to, or for the benefit of any person whose property and interests in property are blocked pursuant to this order would seriously impair my ability to deal with the national emergency declared in this order, and I hereby prohibit such donations as provided by section 1 of this order.

     Sec. 7.  For the purposes of this order:

     (a)  the term “entity” means a partnership, association, trust, joint venture, corporation, group, subgroup, or other organization;

     (b)  the term “noncitizen” means any person who is not a citizen or noncitizen national of the United States;

     (c)  the term “person” means an individual or entity;

     (d)  the term “United States person” means any United States citizen, lawful permanent resident, entity organized under the laws of the United States or any jurisdiction within the United States (including foreign branches), or any person in the United States; and

     (e)  the term “terrorism” means an activity that:

          (i)   involves a violent act or an act dangerous to human life, property, or infrastructure; and

          (ii)  appears to be intended:

               (A)  to intimidate or coerce a civilian population;

               (B)  to influence the policy of a government by intimidation or coercion; or

               (C)  to affect the conduct of a government by mass destruction, assassination, kidnapping, or hostage-taking.

     Sec. 8.  For those persons whose property and interests in property are blocked or affected by this order who might have a constitutional presence in the United States, I find that because of the ability to transfer funds and other assets instantaneously, prior notice to such persons of measures to be taken pursuant to this order would render those measures ineffectual.  I therefore determine that for these measures to be effective in addressing the national emergency declared in this order, there need be no prior notice of a listing or determination made pursuant to this order.

     Sec. 9.  The Secretary of the Treasury, in consultation with the Secretary of State, is authorized to take such actions, including the promulgation of rules and regulations, and to employ all powers granted to the President by IEEPA as may be necessary to carry out the purposes of this order.  The Secretary of the Treasury may, consistent with applicable law, redelegate any of these functions within the Department of the Treasury.  All executive departments and agencies of the United States shall take all appropriate measures within their authority to implement this order.

     Sec. 10.  Nothing in this order shall prohibit transactions for the conduct of the official business of the Federal Government or the United Nations (including its specialized agencies, programs, funds, and related organizations) by employees, grantees, and contractors thereof.

     Sec. 11.  The Secretary of the Treasury, in consultation with the Secretary of State, is authorized to submit recurring and final reports to the Congress on the national emergency declared in this order, consistent with section 401(c) of the NEA (50 U.S.C. 1641(c)) and section 204(c) of IEEPA (50 U.S.C. 1703(c)).

     Sec. 12.  (a)  Nothing in this order shall be construed to impair or otherwise affect:

          (i)   the authority granted by law to an executive department or agency, or the head thereof; or

          (ii)  the functions of the Director of the Office of Management and Budget relating to budgetary, administrative, or legislative proposals.

     (b)  This order shall be implemented consistent with applicable law and subject to the availability of appropriations.

     (c)  This order is not intended to, and does not, create any right or benefit, substantive or procedural, enforceable at law or in equity by any party against the United States, its departments, agencies, or entities, its officers, employees, or agents, or any other person.

                             JOSEPH R. BIDEN JR.

THE WHITE HOUSE,
  February 1, 2024.
February 2, 2024

Mexican Border Crisis
More Border Support: Governor Ron DeSantis Sends Additional Florida National Guard and Florida State Guard to Assist Texas. 
On February 1, 2024, in News Releases, by Staff
National Guardsmen and State Guard Soldiers will join FHP, FWC and FDLE officers already assisting Texas at the southern border

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. — Today, Governor Ron DeSantis announced that Florida is deploying members of the Florida National Guard (FLNG) and members of the Florida State Guard (FSG) will be deployed to assist Texas in its efforts to stop the invasion at the southern border. Florida is offering up to a battalion of National Guard members (approximately 1,000 soldiers) to Texas, who will be deployed based on Texas’ needs. For more information about the announcement, click here.

These deployments are in addition to the more than 90 officers from the Florida Highway Patrol (FHP), Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission (FWC) and the Florida Department of Law Enforcement (FDLE) that are currently deployed to the border. Additional law enforcement resources are standing by and ready to deploy as requested by Texas state officials. In December, Customs and Border Protection (CBP) data showed that more than 302,000 illegal immigrants were encountered attempting to cross the southern border – the highest month ever recorded.

“States have every right to defend their sovereignty and we are pleased to increase our support to Texas as the Lone Star State works to stop the invasion across the border,” said Governor Ron DeSantis. “Our reinforcements will help Texas to add additional barriers, including razor wire along the border. We don’t have a country if we don’t have a border.”

“This is not a new mission for us. For several years we have supported border security missions in Texas, to include both federal and state deployments,” said Major General John D. Haas, The Adjutant General of Florida. “Last spring the Florida National Guard was one of the first in the nation to deploy rotations of soldiers to support Operation Lone Star in Texas, and we have proudly and readily supported our own state’s efforts in similar roles here in Florida.”

“The Florida State Guard is prepared to stand shoulder-to-shoulder with state agency partners in direct support of our brothers and sisters in Texas grappling with an unprecedented surge of illegal immigration along their border,” said Florida State Guard Director Mark Thieme. “The Florida State Guard is postured to deliver rapid emergency response, public safety operations and humanitarian assistance — wherever the need arises.”

Since 2021, Florida has provided direct law enforcement and military assistance to Texas, including FLNG, which supported the Texas Military Department through mission sets including static observation points, roving patrols and engineer assistance with obstacle improvement. FHP has made contact with nearly 150,000 illegal aliens, conducted over 27,000 traffic stops, resulting in 2,102 Human Smuggling or Human Trafficking charges with 2,278 overall arrests.

FDLE has sent rotations of officers to assist the Texas Department of Public Safety with arrests of violent felony suspects including gang members. Suspects were arrested on various Texas state charges including human smuggling, burglary, firearms, smuggling of persons, smuggling of persons with a firearm, child endangerment, escape from federal custody and possession of controlled substance. FWC has deployed a total of 540 FWC personnel, 525 four-wheel drive patrol trucks and 24 vessels.

In Fiscal Year 2023, CBP recorded 2.5 million encounters – surpassing last year’s record. This includes 169 illegal immigrants on the terror watch list attempting to cross the southern border. Since Biden took office, more than 10 million illegal immigrants have crossed the border, including more than 1.7 million known gotaways. In December alone, roughly 260 million lethal doses of fentanyl were seized at the border.

Russia v. NATO

General Gheorghiță Vlad, Romania's chief of defense, issued a war warning in an interview with the Press, joining General Patrick Sanders, the United Kingdom's army chief, and Germany's Defense Minister Boris Pistorius in having recently said the same, and in urging their countries to prepare for war.   They are not alone in this and this has been a common European theme in recent weeks.

Iran v the West

Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force commander Brigadier General Esmail Qaani visited Baghdad to meet leaders of the Iraqi groups to try to stop military action against U.S. forces.  The fear that the US is going to launch major strikes, which the US has said its preparing,and that this will lead to a wider war is clearly impacting Iran.

February 2, 2024

Iran v. the West

The US hit 85 targets in Iraq and Syria in retaliation for an Iranian backed militia strike that killed three U.S. Servicemen tin Jordan.

Nigeria

Unknown attackers killed Segun Aremu, the Olukoro of Koro, in Nigeria and kidnapped his wife.

February 4, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

It appears the Ukrainians assassinated a Tu-95 pilot inside of Russia.


Putin has been expressing displeasure with Russian scientist working on a hypersonic missile program.

Soldiers' wives protested in Moscow, many were arrested.


Middle East

The US and UK hit 36 Houthi targets yesterday in Yemen.

Mexican Border Crisis

A Take Our Border Back rally is going on, on the border.

February 5, 2024

Middle East and the US and wars.

The weekend shows featured the bizarre spectacle of Republican politicians criticizing President Biden's actions against Iran for not going far enough when we're on the verge of an outright war right now.

Somehow, we're in the situation where for a lot of Republicans supporting Ukraine is bad, because Trump likes Putin, supporting Israel is paramount, as there's a vague underlying Evangelical feeling its nearly religiously mandated, and we ought to push Iran up to and maybe over the brink of war.

Mexican Border Crisis

On the weekend shows, a preview of the extensive bipartisan Senate border bill was featured.  Mike Johnson is pretty clearly going to oppose it as he has orders from his puppet master. A Republican Senator threatened to push Johnson into a vote over his speakership, which apparently there had been a backdoor deal with Democratic Senators to try to prevent when he was nominated.  This was based on the assertion that he'd broken his promises in that closed door meeting.

Governor Kristi Noem was banned from the Pine Ridge Reservation for declaring she wants to send razor wire and National Guardsmen to the Texas border.




February 8, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

President Volodymyr Zelensky dismissed of Ukraine’s top commander, General Valerii Zaluzhnyi. The failure of the spring/summer offensive contributed heavily to this.  He will be replaced by Command of Land Forces Oleksandr Syrskyi.

February 11, 2024

Hamas v. Israel

Israel has announced that it intends to enter Rafah.

This is being treated as a surprise for some reason, although I think it's always been clear that it intends to enter 100% of Gaza in stages.

The civilian death toll in Gaza is about 28,000.

February 12, 2024

NATO

Donald Trump's off the cuff comment that he'd invite Russia to attack countries that are delinquent in their NATO contribution has resulted in a firestorm of controvesy.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg stated:
Any suggestion that allies will not defend each other undermines all of our security, including that of the US, and puts American and European soldiers at increased risk, I expect that regardless of who wins the presidential election the US will remain a strong and committed NATO Ally.

Putin's press secretary Dmitry Peskov stated; "I am still Putin’s press secretary, but not Trump’s".

Trump's cavalier comments were reckless and frankly weird, which is hardly an unusual thing for him.  It does point out, however, the extent to which he's a reckless isolationist, perhaps in the early stages of dementia (he cannot seemingly control what he says) and bizarrely a Putin fanboy.  The latter has never been adequately explained.

February 13, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

From ISW:

Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that elements of Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) are training Russian drone operators at the Shayrat Air Base in Syria


Last Prior Edition:

Wednesday, January 31, 2024

Wars and Rumors of War, 2024. Part I. New Year, last year's wars.

You will hear of wars and rumors of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed. Such things must happen, but the end is still to come. Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom.

Matthew, Chapter 24.


Only the dead have seen the end of the war.

George Santayana

January 1, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

This major war is now in its third calendar year.

Hamas Israeli War

The Prime Minister of Israel has stated that this campaign will carry on for many months.

An Israeli airstrike killed 35 in Gaza.

The U.S. Navy sunk three Houthi boats attempting to attack a merchant vessel.

Venezuela v Guyana border dispute.

Venezuela is conducting a joint arms exercise in response to the Royal Navy dispatching a ship to Guyana.

January 2, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

A change in Norwegian law allows Norwegian arms manufacturers to sell arms directly to Ukraine.

How much of a defense industry Norway has, of course, is another matter.

January 3, 2024

Hamas Israeli War

An Israeli airstrike sent Saleh Arouri to the next world, where he will have to make an account for his actions.  An Islamic radical his entire life, he was the founder of Hamas' military wing.  

He went to his end in Beirut.

From ISW:

Israeli forces are transitioning to the third phase of their operations in the northern Gaza Strip, which will very likely enable Hamas to reconstitute itself militarily. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) confirmed that it withdrew five brigades from the northern Gaza Strip on December 31. This reduction in forces is part of what the IDF has described as its third phase in the strip, which also involves ending major combat operations, releasing reservists, transitioning to “targeted raids,” and establishing a security buffer zone within the Gaza Strip.

January 4, 2024

US/Mexico Border Crisis

The Justice Department has sued Texas on over a new law that would allow Texas police to arrest illegal immigrants on the basis of their illegality. 

My prediction is that this suit will likely fail.

Hamas Israeli War

Hezbollah leader Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah warned Israel that launching a full-scale war on Lebanon Islamist targets would be "very costly," and that the assassination of a senior Hamas leader in Beirut would not go unpunished.

Sort of in the D'uh category.

Cont:

Islamic State v. Iran

The Islamic State claimed responsibility for a bombing attack that killed 84 people in Kerman, Iran.  The attack occured during a memorial procession for Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani.  The Sunni group regards Shiites, which most Iranians are, with Iran being a Shiite theocracy, as apostates.

January 5, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Putin signed a decree signed speeding up citizenship for foreigners enlisting in the Russian army.

Somalian Civil War

From ISW: 

Ethiopia signed a memorandum of understanding with the de facto independent Somaliland Republic, a breakaway region of Somalia, to lease a naval port that will give it Red Sea access in exchange for formally recognizing Somaliland.

January 7, 2024

The Korean Conflict

North Korea issued one of its threatening proclamations through Communist princess Kim Yo Jong.

These are moronic, as without China, and North Korea cannot really depend on China, South Korea would be eliminated as an entity in the event of war.

South Korea may soon not be able to fill its conscript levies due to a declining population.

Russo Ukrainian War

Japan's foreign minister visited Ukraine.

Russia seems to have resumed its strategy of attempting localized offensives that degrade its own forces.

The Ukrainians have been conducting a drone offensive against targets in Crimea.

January 9, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

News reports hold that Russia has deployed 35,000 men of the Russian National Guard, some equipped with World War Two vintage rifles, to occupied regions of Ukraine as security forces.

January 10, 2024

Hamas Israeli War

Anthony Blinken has indicated the US rejects the concept of resettling the Gazan Levantines from that area even though, of course, its an untenable ghetto. 

Iran v. The West

Iranian backed Houthis launched 50 drones at shipping today, all of which were shot down by the U.S. Navy and Royal Navy.

Iran is using the current Hamas Israeli War as a pretext to try to advance its interest in the region.

January 11, 2024

Hamas Israeli War

The US and UK hit targets with missiles inside of Yemen, from which Houthi drone strikes have been coming. A Houthi spokesman actually complained about it.

January 12, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

From ISW:

Mexican Border Crisis.

The State of Texas, using the Texas National Guard, has seized Shelby Park in Eagle Pass in order to prevent Federal authorities from processing migrants.

January 13, 2024

Hamas Israeli War.

The US struck Houthi targets again yesterday.

Turkey v. Kurds

Turkish air raids struck Kurdish militant targets in Metina, Hakurk, Gara and Qandil in northern Iraq. This was in retaliation for a Kurdish attack on a Turkish base in Iraq.

January 16, 2024

Iran v Everyone

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards launched missile attacks in Syria and in Iraq’s Kurdistan region yesterday.

Korean Conflict

The North Korean Communist Clown state announced it is no longer pursuing reconciliation with South Korea, which actually dovetails nicely with general younger South Korean desires.

There's speculation on why this was announced, but in reality, any reunion between the countries at this point makes the ongoing Communist monarchy in North Korean irrelevant in every fashion so quickly, it isn't funny.

January 17, 2024

Hamas Israeli War/Iran v Everyone

The US is placing the Houthi's back on the terrorist list.

Iran v. Everyone

Iran conducted missile strikes on a Sunni militia site in Pakistan.

January 18, 2024

Hamas Israeli War/Iran v Everyone

The US conducted a fourth round of strikes on the Houthis.

Pakistan v. Baloch militants.

Pakistan conducted strikes inside Iran against Baloch militants.

January 20, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

The Estonian state will not extend the residence permit of the head of the Estonian Orthodox Church (Russian Orthodox Church in Estonia) of the Moscow Patriarchate, Metropolitan Yevgeniy, whose civil name is Valeri Reshetnikov, because his activities are a security threat to Estonia

Estonian government.

Cont:

The Middle East

Somebody (probably Israel) hit Iranian Revolutionary Guard figures inside of Syria.  In turn, US sites in Iraq were hit.by Iranian backed militia's.

Iran is the common thread here. 

January 21, 2024

Hamas Israeli War

Benjamin Netanyahu rejected a two state solution for Gaza.

This is widely seen as a terrible thing to have done, but frankly, Gaza isn't viable as an isolated political unit and always has depended on economic support from the outside to get by. Geographically, it should be part of Israel or Egypt, and that's a simple economic and topographic fact.  It shouldn't be part of another state.

For that matter, a Palestinian state makes little to no sense.  It would be minute.

Those are the rough, real facts to deal with.  Levantines that live within the borders of what had been pre-1948 Palestine either have to live within Israel, realistically, or be relocated in some instances to an Arab state that could host them, none of which are willing to do it.

Russo Ukrainian War

President Zylenskyy expressed concerns about remarks made by Donald Trump regarding securing peace.

Concern is warranted given Trump's admiration for dictators and his increasingly erratic if not demented behavior.

January 22, 2024

China v. Taiwan

Recent statements by GOP candidate Donald Trump have risen concerns that his commitment to Taiwan, which has been a GOP hallmark, is low.  

FWIW, Trump raised Taiwanese semiconductor production as something the US should have done something about, seemingly failing to grasp that if it falls to China, we're in a world of semiconductor hurt.

On one of the weekend shows, it was recently revealed that Trump has a gigantic exaggerated fear of nuclear war.  He also clearly has a thing for strongmen.

January 23, 2024

Hamas Israeli War

Numerous nations are lining up against Israel and demanding a Palestinian state be part of a peace package, even though such a state, if within the boundaries of the former Palestinian mandate, would not be economically viable.  

Saudi Arabia, with a large landmass and a labor deficit, has stated it will not normalize relations with Israel unless a Palestinian state is created.

British and American forces hit Houthi ones again.

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukraine conducted successful drone strikes against targets in Leningrad and Tula oblasts.

Boarder Crisis

The U.S. Supreme Court allowed Federal agents to remove razor wire on the Texas/Mexico border, but it is merely a ruling on a temporary injunction, so the actual ruling, in terms of the issues, means next to nothing whatsoever.

January 24, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Due to political infighting, the US is out of funding for Ukraine and the pipeline is therefore shut.

January 25, 2024

Hamas Israeli War

From ISW:

Israel proposed a two-month pause in fighting in exchange for Hamas releasing over several phases the remaining hostages held in the Gaza Strip. The first phase would have Hamas return women, men over 60 years old, and hostages in critical medical condition. Israeli media reported that the "next phases" would include the release of female IDF soldiers, civilian males under the age of 60, Israeli male soldiers, and the bodies of hostages. An anonymous Israeli official told an Israeli journalist that the proposal includes redeploying the IDF out of main population centers in the Gaza Strip to allow Palestinian civilians to return to these areas. The official added that this proposal does not include the release of all 6,000 Palestinian prisoners from Israeli prisons.

This would be a major concession from Israel, but it doesn't seem to have generated much news.

Russo Ukrainian War

A Russian Il-76 military transporting Ukrainian POWs for an exchange crashed in Yablonovo, Belgorod Oblast. The Russians have accused Ukraine of shooting it down.

Patriarch Krill urged the Russian government to extend the draft deferment for fathers, now set at fathers with four children, down to father's with three, out of concern for the declining Russian population.

Slovakia, whose current government is close to Putin, pleadged support for the integrity of Ukraine's internationally recognized borders.

Middle East

Houthi's attempted to attack U.S. Navy escorts with ballistic missiles unsuccessfully.

US/Mexico Border

An attempt in Congress to get a bill passed to address the border is stalled with Donald Trump now entering the picture, opposing it, something that is hard not to be quite skeptical about.

This will messs up aid to Ukraine as well.

January 27, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

US/Mexico Border

January 27, 2024

Speaker of the House Mike Johnson declared that a budget measure that the Senate did pass providing aid to Ukraine and addressing the US/Mexico border may be dead on arrival at the House.

Trump appears to wish to preserve the border issues, and a second of today's GOP opposes aid to Ukraine.  An unresolved weirdness of populist and Putin, acquired from Trump, remains unresolved.

Also:

Governor Gordon Supports Texas’ Right to Secure its Border

CHEYENNE, Wyo. – Governor Gordon has issued a statement in support of border security Texas Governor Greg Abbott and Texas’ constitutional right to defend and protect itself in the face of the crisis at the southern border.

“I remain committed to a secure border, and to supporting states struggling with the ongoing security crisis along our southern border. That’s why Wyoming has offered resources and committed them to this effort, most recently responding to Governor Greg Abbott's  Emergency Management Assistance Compact (EMAC) request for law enforcement officers. I recognize the importance of secure borders and the vulnerabilities that a lack of resolve to securing those borders has brought to our country.

Secure borders prevent criminals and deadly drugs like fentanyl from entering our country and making their way to Wyoming. Wyoming stands in solidarity with Governor Abbott and the State of Texas in utilizing every tool and strategy to secure the border and protect American citizens. We are all border states now.”

Governor Gordon was also one of 25 Governors who signed a joint statement in support of Texas Governor Abbott and Texas’ constitutional right to self-defense.

Related to this, Denver Colorado reports it has an illegal/refugee populaton of 40,000.

Middle East

The Houthi's hit and set on faire an oil tanker.

China v The West

China’s intelligence agency has warned the Chinese to beware of “exotic beauties” who they fear are opserating as honey traps.

Intersingly, honey traps were a favorite Communist tactic for gathering intelligence.

Hamas Israeli War

Numerous Western countries have suspended contributions to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency, UNRWA, after it was learned that twelve of its members particpated in the Hamas attacks on Israel.

January 28, 2024

Picking up where we left off yesterday:

Hamas Israeli War

Numerous Western countries have suspended contributions to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency, UNRWA, after it was learned that twelve of its members particpated in the Hamas attacks on Israel.

The agency's head warns that UNRWA is collapsing given that nine countries have withdrawn from it and famine looms.

This is a tragedy, but it also tells us something about the UN and th total lack of viability of the Palestinian Authority's territorial regions, although of course a war is on.

Clearly, something needs to be done. That something, requires new oversight, and some hard decisions that nobody wants to make.

January 29, 2024

The Middle East

Three American troops were killed and more injured by an Iranian backed militia drone strike on a US base in Jordan.  The base is near the border with Jordan.

I was unaware we had any bases in Jordan.

January 31, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

The Russians have launched an offensive in the Kharkiv-Luhansk Oblast

Last Prior Edition:

Wars and Rumors of War, 2023, Part XII. γλυκύ δ᾽ἀπείρῳ πόλεμος. πεπειραμένων δέ τις ταρβεῖ προσιόντα νιν καρδία περισσῶς.