Wars and Rumors of War, 2025. Part 4. The GBU-57A/B MOP Edition.

You will hear of wars and rumors of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed. Such things must happen, but the end is still to come. Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom.

Matthew, Chapter 24.

GBU-57A/B MOP

You can't say civilization don't advance... in every war they kill you in a new way. 

Will Rogers.

We will measure our success not only by the battles we win, but also by the wars that we end, and perhaps most importantly, the wars we never get into.

Donald Trump.

We find ourselves with another predictive entry.

Yesterday, June 17, was an extremely odd day.  Trump left the G7 meeting austensibly to deal with the war between Israel and Iran, but notably before the topic of the Russian invasion of Ukraine came up.

Trump, of course, had promised to end the war between Ukraine and Russia upon being nominated to the Oval Office.

He lied.

Since that time, he's been an enthusiastic supporter if Israel's ongoing war in Gaza and, as of yesterday, was indicating that the US saved the life of Iran's Supreme Leader, but the US may decide to kill the de facto Iranian head of state itself, something that nations generally do not do and which frankly would make Trump fair game in the eyes of Iranian radicals.  Trump might finally get a first hand taste of being the enemy the way he did not in the 1960s.

Threatening to murder, and that's exactly what it would be, the head of a state of a foreign country is moronic, as well as deeply immoral.

It appears that Mike Huckabee, whom Trump stupidly appointed as the American Ambassador to Israel, has Trump's ear, which is dangerous.  Huckabee sent a weird missive to Trump yesterday or the day before which Trump praised and reposted.  Huckabee is a Christian Zionist/Millennialist Restorationist who seeks to help bring about the Second Coming by advancing the cause of Israel.  A minority branch of Protestantism, which itself is a minority of Christians, there's likely nothing Israel could do that Huckabee won't back. He's basically backing the United States entering the war against Iran.

The reason that Israel would want that to occur is depicted above.  Israel is attempting to end the Iranian nuclear program, and perhaps achieve much more, from the air.  By now it's probably clear that it can't do that without use of a GBU-57A/B MOP, assuming that could even do it.  The GBU-57A/B MOP is the worlds' largest deep penetration bunker buster bomb, and it might, but only might, be able to destroy Iran's underground nuclear facilities.

Only one airplane in the world right now can carry the GBU-57A/B MOP, that being the B-2 bomber.  The B-52 can also carry then, but none are currently set up to do so. The B-2 can carry two.

And it's highly probable that they've asked the US to deploy them for this purpose.

And fairly probable the US will do so.

June 18, 2025

Israel v. Iran

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — Israel claimed Tuesday to have killed a top Iranian general as it traded more strikes with its longtime foe, and U.S. President Donald Trump warned residents of Tehran to evacuate while demanding that Iran surrender without conditions.

From the AP.

On the above, there's a pretty good chance that Trump feels that acting like he's going to attack Iran is going to convince Iran to enter some sort of bargain.  Iran is pretty hard to intimidate.

Also, there's a good chance that Trump will TACO the moment and suddenly declare he achieved something, once he thinks over the consequences of attacking Iran, or once clearer heads than Mike Huckabee's get to him.  Not that I want him to attack Iran.  I think that would be stupid.

If the latter occurs, Trump's loyal fans will claim that he was the master negotiator, but I doubt Israel will quit pounding Iran, and that Iran will quit responding.  Israel has the upper hand right now, but it's extremely difficult to win a war only through the air, and Israel has no ability to deploy ground forces against Iran. For that matter, Iran's neighbors likely wouldn't tolerate that.  It's an impossibility, however.  Air wars degrade over time as targets reduce or become less vulnerable, and Israel is unlikely to be able to protect itself from missile strikes indefinitely.

June 19, 2025

Israel v. Iran

Iran hit Israel with a ballistic missile carrying a cluster munition warhead hitting, amongst other things the Soroka Medical Center in Be’er Sheva.

Donald Trump is weirdly claiming that he'll take two weeks to decide if the US will enter the war, which a competent leader would not announce, even if contemplating it.

Legally entering the war would require a Declaration of War, which won't be occurring and a bare minimum the War Powers Act should come into play.

June 22, 2025

The United States and Israel v Iran

The US hit Iranian nuclear targets yesterday.  Trump's speech on the same:

Thank you very much.

A short time ago, the U.S. military carried out massive, precision strikes on the three key nuclear facilities in the Iranian regime. Fordo, Natanz and Esfahan. Everybody heard those names for years as they built this horribly destructive enterprise.

Our objective was the destruction of Iran's nuclear enrichment capacity and a stop to the nuclear threat posed by the world's number one state sponsor of terror.

Tonight, I can report to the world that the strikes were a spectacular military success. Iran's key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated. Iran, the bully of the Middle East, must now make peace. If they do not. Future attacks would be far greater and a lot easier.

For 40 years, Iran has been saying. Death to America, death to Israel. They have been killing our people, blowing off their arms, blowing off their legs, with roadside bombs. That was their specialty. We lost over 1,000 people and hundreds of thousands throughout the Middle East, and around the world have died as a direct result of their hate in particular. So many were killed by their general, Qassim Soleimani. I decided a long time ago that I would not let this happen. It will not continue.

I want to thank and congratulate Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu. We worked as a team like perhaps no team has ever worked before, and we've gone a long way to erasing this horrible threat to Israel. I want to thank the Israeli military for the wonderful job they've done. And most importantly, I want to congratulate the great American patriots who flew those magnificent machines tonight, and all of the United States military on an operation the likes of which the world has not seen in many, many decades.

Hopefully, we will no longer need their services in this capacity. I hope that's so. I also want to congratulate the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan 'Razin' Caine, spectacular general, and all of the brilliant military minds involved in this attack.

With all of that being said, this cannot continue. There will be either peace, or there will be tragedy for Iran, far greater than we have witnessed over the last eight days. Remember, there are many targets left. Tonight's was the most difficult of them all, by far, and perhaps the most lethal. But if peace does not come quickly, we will go after those other targets with precision, speed and skill. Most of them can be taken out in a matter of minutes. There's no military in the world that could have done what we did tonight. Not even close. There has never been a military that could do what took place just a little while ago.

 And I want to just thank everybody. And, in particular, God. I want to just say, we love you, God, and we love our great military. Protect them. God bless the Middle East. God bless Israel and God bless America. Thank you very much. Thank you.

The legality of this is really questionable, as is the wisdom, and effectiveness, of it.  And the development of the US openly taking a part in a Middle Eastern War, started by Israel, on behalf of Israel, is a dangerous development.  The US has never done that before.

As war is an extension of politics by other means, and all politics is local:

Wyoming Delegation Praises Trump’s Decision To Bomb Iran's Nuke Sites

June 23, 2025

The United States and Israel v Iran

Since the US B-2 missions (which were impressively flown out of Missouri in the longest bombing mission of all time), there have global reactions to the strike, some of which praised it.  It's clear that European nations generally support them.

Russia issued a statement in which it condemned them and indicated that now other nations may transfer nuclear weapons to Iran.  How much Russia can be trusted in regard to anything it states is a clearly open question, but being concerned about this possibility, particularly as Pakistan is nearby, is perhaps merited.  Likewise, being concerned about what rogue state North Korea may do is also warranted.

Iran itself has indicated that it will close the Straits of Hormuz and that it will otherwise retaliate.

The morality of this action is debatable and interesting.  It's clearly an act of war with no clear exist strategy based on the hope of Iranian concession.  However, the argument can be made that waiting until Iran had a nuclear weapon, which they are clearly working on, would put the world in an untenable position.  

That it is an act of war was interestingly noted when a Congressman on This Week said Iran could "sue for peace".  You only sue for peace in a declared war, which this is not.

A group of Congressmen have put together a war powers resolution seeking to limit further US action.  It's all Democrats save for one Republican.  If history is our guide, politically most Americans will support action against Iran, at least at first.  If things drag on, they'll be discontented.  In the short term condemning the strike is probably a bad political move, but in the long term it might not be.  If Iran is not cowed into submission, and perhaps its regime can't afford to be, we'll either have to materially support an ongoing Iranian air war indefinitely or become more involved in it.  People repeatedly are noting that there will not be "boots on the ground", and there very likely won't be on a largescale, but on a small scale there may very well be.  If Iran closes the Straits of Hormuz the U.S. Navy will have to reopen them, and that will be a major task.

cont:

Yeoman's Fourth Law of History at work, and Donald Trump demonstrating that he doesn't know how economies work.

June 24, 2025

The United States and Israel v Iran

On the Iranian retaliation, which was muted:

Update Video: Iran “Retaliates.” It appears to be over.

Apparently a cease fire has been agreed to, although there may have been some post agreement fighting.

A ceasefire isn't a peace agreement. What's going on, and what was achieved, are the real questions.

And of course, Trump is acting weird.

And this:

We basically have two countries that have been fighting so long and so hard that they don’t know what the fuck they’re doing.

Donald Trump.

June 24, 2024

United States and Israel v. Iran.

An early assessment holds that Iran's nuclear facilities were not destroyed, only damages, and they're merely set back in the production of an atomic weapon a few months.

Can't say I'm surprised.

So the US attack may have simply reinforced the Iranian desire for a nuclear weapon.

cont:

A report by an expert on NPR Politics holds that there's no way that Iran's nuclear program was destroyed.

Last edition:

Wars and Rumors of War, 2025. Part 3. The peace didn't break out on day one edition.

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Tucker Carlson clashes with Ted Cruz over Iran | REUTERS

Ted Cruz is one of the politicians I mist dislike as a politician.  And Tucker Carlson one of the right wing pundits I most dislike.

So seeing them go at each other is quite a surprise.  Carlson really went after Cruz on Cruz's position on Iran.

Sunday, March 2, 1975. Autocrat day.

Shah of Iran Mohammad Reza Pahlavi declared the country to be a one-party state, with the new "Rastakhiz (Resurgence) Party" to be led by Prime Minister Amir-Abbas Hoveyda.

There's a lesson in there. . . 

Central African Republic President Jean-Bédel Bokassa, in power since 1965, declared himself President-for-life. A year later, he would declare himself to be an Emperor..  Some years later, he'd be overthrown and go into exile.

There's a lesson in there. . . 

Last edition:

Tuesday, February 4, 1975. Prometheus

Labels: 1970s, 1975, Art, Casper Wyoming, Margaret Thatcher, United Kingdom, University of Wyoming

March 1, 1945. Iran declares war on Japan.

 

9th Armored Division, 1 March 1945, Germany

Signal Corps Photo.  This appears to be a M26 with its turret pointing to the rear for travel.  The M26 was just coming into service at this time.

Iran declared war on Japan.

Franklin Roosevelt reported on the Yalta Conference.  He was unable to stand.

The Wehrmacht launched an offensive around Lauban.

The Ninth Army took Mönchengladbach.

"Infantrymen of the U.S. Third Army move through war-torn city of Prum, Germany, of which little is left but blasted buildings and debris-littered streets. 1 March, 1945. 22nd Infantry Regiment, 4th Infantry Division."

"After the town of Disternich, Germany, fell to units of the 9th Armored Division, civilians are gathered to be interrogated by military authorities. 1 March, 1945. Company A, 27th Armored Infantry Battalion, 9th Armored Division."  This is an interesting photograph for a variety of reasons, one of which simply is to note what's occurring, the interrogation of  civilians in the Westphalian town of Disternich.    Note the peasant like appearance of the German civilians.  Peasantry is probably exactly what they are. Note also the medic.  This was for an interrogation, but there must have been a concern that the civilians would be sick or injured. The soldier on the right with the M1 Garand provides us with a really good example of Maine Hunting Shoes in use by the U.S. Army.  Note also his armored division shoulder patch.

 

"Children of parents left destitute in wake of German retreat from Manheim, Germany, receive milk after civilians were able to round up food for themselves. Scene in sector held by 3rd Armored Division of 1st U.S. Army. 1 March, 1945. Photographer: W. B. Allen, 165th Signal Photo Co."  Note that the boy in the foreground is wearing a classic German mutze with some sort of cap device.

Michael Strank, one of the Marines photographed raising the flag on Iwo Jima, lost his life in the battle.

He was born in Czechoslovakia to a Rusyn family, and had immigrated to the US as a child with his family.

Last edition:

Wednesday, February 28, 1945. Saudi Arabia declares war.

Labels: 1940s, 1945, Army, Axis Powers, Heroes, Iwo Jima, Philippines, Prisoners of War, Red Army, Saudi Arabia, U.S. Navy, United States Marine Corps, World War Two

Wars and Rumors of War, 2024. Part 8. Wider wars.

You will hear of wars and rumors of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed. Such things must happen, but the end is still to come. Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom.

Matthew, Chapter 24.

There is no hunting like the hunting of man, and those who have hunted armed men long enough and liked it, never care for anything else thereafter.

Ernest Hemingway.

August 7, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukrainian troops have advanced into Russia's Kursk Oblast and are in their second day of operations there.

August 8, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Rockets from northern Gaza have lead to an Israeli advisory in the area that residents should leave.

An arrest of ISIL terrorist who were plotting a strike in a European Taylor Swift concert lead to cancellation of events.

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukrainian forces have made confirmed advances up to 10 kilometers into Russia's Kursk Oblast amid continued mechanized offensive operations on Russian territory on August 7. Geolocated footage published on August 6 and 7 shows that Ukrainian armored vehicles have advanced to positions along the 38K-030 route about 10 kilometers from the international border.[1] The current confirmed extent and location of Ukrainian advances in Kursk Oblast indicate that Ukrainian forces have penetrated at least two Russian defensive lines and a stronghold.[2] A Russian insider source claimed that Ukrainian forces have seized 45 square kilometers of territory within Kursk Oblast since they launched the operation on August 6, and other Russian sources reported that Ukrainian forces have captured 11 total settlements, including Nikolaevo-Daryino (1.5 kilometers north of the Sumy Oblast border), Darino (three kilometers north of the Sumy Oblast border), and Sverdlikovo (east of the Nikolaevo-Darino-Darino area), and are operating within Lyubimovka (eight kilometers north of the Sumy Oblast border).

ISW.

August 9, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Russia has declared a Federal level emergency due to the incursion near Kursk.  Ukrainian advances have been fairly extensive.

August 10, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukrainian advances have resulted in evacuation orders being issued and the formation of some local anti government partisan units seeming to have formed.

August 15, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

The Ukrainians have taken the Russian town of Sudzha in the Kursk Oblast.

cont:

And now the Ukrainians are in Belgorod Oblast, south of Kursk Oblast, and directly north of Kharkov.

Resistance was strengthening in opposition to the offensive in Kursk, so they've side stepped it.

August 16, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Russia jailed dual US/Russian citizen ballerina  Ksenia Khavana for a $52.00 donation to a charity aiding Ukraine.

Indian has asked its citizens who live near the conflicts zones to relocated:

In view of the recent security incidents in Bryansk, Belgorod and Kursk regions, Indian nationals are advised to take necessary precautions and relocate outside these regions.  Any Indian national or student requiring assistance may contact the embassy.

Russian forces are attempting to encircle Ukrainian forces southeast of Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast.  While Ukrainian forces are on the offensive in Russia, Russian forces remain on the offensive in Ukraine.

August 17, 2024

Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States finalized a  trade agreement removing export barriers on defense goods and technology between them.

August 22, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Russian mercenary leader Georgy Zakrevsky has called for Putin to be removed.

August 25, 2024

ISIL v Everyone

ISIL claimed responsibility for a knife attack in Solingen, Germany, that killed three people and wounded eight others at a claiming the murder targeted Christians and did this to avenge Muslims and Palestinians everywhere, as if doing that in Germany would make a lick of sense whatsoever.

Middle Eastern War

Israel has been conducting air strikes in Gaza 

It conducted massive ones in southern Lebanon, to which Hezbollah responded with rockets.

I suspect that Israel is hitting targets heavily in advance of an anticipated cease fire.

cont:

Actually, the strike in Lebanon was a preemptive strike.

August 28, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukraine reports that Russia has lost over 600,000 men in its war with the country, of which over 180,000 were killed.

By way of a contrast, 58,220 Americans were killed in the Vietnam War.

The Russians have been advancing rapidly near Pokrovsk and are generally sustaining offensive operations in Ukraine.

September 4, 2024

China v. Taiwan

In a recent interview, the president of the Republic of China (Taiwan) suggested that the People's Republic of China, rather than bothering Taiwan, ought to cast its eyes on land that it lost to Russia in the 1850s and 1860s.

If it is for the sake of territorial integrity, why doesn’t it take back the lands occupied by Russia that were signed over in the Treaty of Aigun? Russia is now at its weakest, right? You can ask Russia (for the land back) but you don’t. So it’s obvious they don’t want to invade Taiwan for territorial reasons.

Here's the territory he referenced:

That's a lot of territory.

From the way it was said, I think the remark was meant to be flippant, rather than serious, but it does raise a real question which is, with Russia so weak, will China look north?

September 5, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Belarus scrambled fighters to shoot down Russian drones that invaded its airspace.

September 9, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Russian drones have entered Latvian and Romanian airspace within the past few days.

September 10, 2024

China v. India

Chinese special forces penetrated into India for up to 30 miles and stayed there for several days.  China and India's border is disputed.

September 11, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Apparently getting a big positive reaction in Poland:

Why don't you tell the 800,000 Polish Americans right here in Pennsylvania how quickly you would give up for the sake of favor, and what you think is a friendship with a dictator who would eat you for lunch?

Kamala Harris to Donald Trump in last night's debate.  Trump claimed he'd end the war, if elected, as President Elect, which a person would have to be an absolute idiot to believe. 

September 16, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Poland's foreign minister suggested ending social benefits for Ukrainian men living in Europe, which the Ukrainian government agreed with.  The goal would be to boost pressure on military aged men to return to the country and be available for military service.

September 17, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Pagers carried by Hezbollah operatives in Lebanon exploded at about the same time Tuesday afternoon injuring over 2,700 and killing eight.

Yikes.

September 18, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

A "massive" Ukrainian drone strike on Russian munitions' and fuel depots in Toropets, Tver, Russia has set things ablaze and resulted in a partial evacuation of the region.

For reference, this area is northwest of Moscow.

September 19, 2024

Middle Eastern War

And yesterday it occured again with two way radios.

September 20, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Israel launched major airstrikes in Lebanon directed at Hezbollah.  

The strikes against Hezbollah actually have received street level support in Arab countries, with Northern Syrian troops even passing out candy in celebration of the event in northern Syria.

Russo Ukrainian War

Putin rejected a request to mobilize made by senior Russian military leaders.  Knowing why Putin does what is hard to fathom, but speculation runs from a fear what it would do to the economy, to a fear what the public reaction would be.

On the latter, Ukraine is rapidly starting to resemble the US participation in the Vietnam War in some ways, and its notable that the US called up very few reservists in that conflict.

It became unpopular anyway, of course.

September 22, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Hezbollah retaliated with a massive rocket attack into Israel.  Israel responded with hundreds of airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon.

Israel closed down the Al Jazeera bureau in Gaza.

September 25, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Israel is calling up reservists and deploying them in the north in anticipation of a ground invasion of Lebanon.

September 29, 2024.

Middle Eastern War

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was killed in an Israeli airstrike.

October 1, 2024.

Middle Eastern War

Israel has commenced raids within Lebanon.

cont:

Iran struck Israel with missiles in retaliation.

October 6, 2024.

Middle Eastern War

Israel had expanded its missile campaign in Lebanon, hitting Hezbollah targets near Beirut and a Hamas target in northern Lebanon.

It's also reengaged in ground operations in Gaza.

October 8, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

The Ukrainians launched a major strike on a Russian petroleum facility on Crimea.

Somebody has launched a major cyber attack on Russian state media yesterday.

October 21, 2024.

Middle Eastern War

Israel has started targeting Hezbollah's financial wing, al-Qard al-Hassan, which operates as a cash based bank, in strikes in Lebanon.

October 22, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Where the money is:

https://x.com/i/status/1848438591409819750

October 23, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Israel killed major Hamas figure Yahya Ibrahim Hassan Sinwar.

Russo Ukrainian War

North Korea is sending large numbers of troops to Russia to fight against Ukraine.

October 23, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Israel conducted strikes on Iranian targets.

Russia has been supplying targeting information to the Houthis.

cont:

The Israeli airstrike was an actual air raid, with no losses.

The route is unclear, but this would involve overflights of at least three countries.  It shows Iranian air defenses to be completely anemic.

October 28, 2024

Russia

Possible Russian Gains in Georgia and Moldova

October 31, 2024

The war on ISIL

The US condcuted airstrikes on ISIL targets in Syria this week.

November 4, 2024

Russia v. The West

Western security officials say they believe that two incendiary devices, shipped via DHL, were part of a covert Russian operation that ultimately aimed to start fires aboard cargo or passenger aircraft flying to the U.S. and Canada, as Moscow steps up a sabotage campaign against Washington and its allies.

The devices ignited at DHL logistics hubs in July, one in Leipzig, Germany, and another in Birmingham, England. The explosions set off a multinational race to find the culprits.

Wall Street Journal. 

November 9, 2024

Iran v. the West.

Iranian agents were plotting to kill Donald Trump, but the plot was foiled by the FBI.  The plot was supposed to be put together quickly, and then if that could not be achieved, revived after the election, which they rationally expected him to lose.

November 18, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War.

The U.S. has approved use of the Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMs for Ukrainian strikes inside of Russia. This comes in response to Russian mustering of thousands of North Korean troops.

November 20, 2024

Russia and China v. The West

The Danish Navy boarded the Chinese-flagged bulk carrier Yi Peng 3, captained by a Russian, after it was suspected of damaging two undersea telecom cables in the Baltic Sea..

November 21, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Reports this morning hold that Russia hit Dnipro with an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).  If correct, its the first such use of an ICBM in history and would be an unconscionable escalation of the conflict.

November 23, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

The missile turns out to be a new intermediate range experimental Russian missile.

A North Korean general has been wounded in a Ukrainian missile attack near Kursk.

November 26, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Saudi Arabia is considering dropping the price of oil to $49/bbl to crush the Russian export oil market.

It'd crush the American one as well, which is pretty much what a new Trump administration would deserve, as would those oil producing states voting for him.

NPR Politics podcast on where the war may be headed, in light of the election of Trump:

Before leaving office, Biden wants to keep helping Ukraine

November 28, 2024

Middle Eastern War

A cease fire has been brokered by the US and France between Israel and Hezbollah.  This will require Hezbollah to withdraw, in Lebanon, north of a line in southern Lebanon.

It's worth noting that the Lebanese Army has largely sat the recent conflict out, probably hoping that Israel would destroy Hezbollah.  This agreement won't be good for Lebanon.

December 2, 2024

Syrian Civil War

A Sunni jihadist rebel group supported by Turkey has made serious gains, taking Aleppo in recent days.  In no small part this is due to the degrading of Russian support for the Syrian government and the degrading of Iranian support by Israel.  

This isn't, ironically, necessarily good news, as there's no reason to believe this group is democratic, or will bey sympathetic to Syrian minorities.

December 3, 2024

South Korea

In a bizarre episode South Korea was under martial law for a day, the President accusing the main opposition party of having communist sympathizers.  Parliament reversed his decision.

December 4, 2024

Syrian Civil War

The Russian Navy is evacuating naval assets from its base in Tartus, Syria,

December 6, 2024

Syrian Civil War

Syrian rebels took Hama, and appear likely to take Homs, in a drive that apparently seeks to sever Syria from the sea.

December 7, 2024

Syrian Civil War

Iran is withdrawing its troops from Syria, stating:

Iran is starting to evacuate its forces and military personnel because we cannot fight as an advisory and support force if Syria's army itself does not want to fight,  Iran has realized that it cannot manage the situation in Syria right now with any military operation and this option is off the table.

Rebels took Daraa and Sweida and the revolution is generally spreading everywhere.

December 26, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Finland has detained the Russian ship Eagle S after submarine cables in the Baltic were severed.  Estonia's parliament has gone into an emergency session on the Boxing Day holiday.

cont:

Russian air defenses downed an Azerbaijan Airlines plane that crashed in Kazakhstan.

December 27, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Israel struck Houthi targets in Yemen with airstrikes yesterday.   The strikes impressively demonstrates Israel's ability to strike targets with precision at distance via its air force.

Russo Ukrainian War

North Korean troops have sustained heavy casualties in combat against Ukraine.

Russia hit Ukraine in a massive air attack on Latin Rite Christmas Day.

December 28, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Houthis launched a massive missile raid on Israel yesterday.

South Korea

South Korea's legislature voted to impeach its acting president Han Duck-soo, two weeks after it voted to impeach its President Yoon Suk Yeol, in an example of how democratic bodies should act towards those who would seek to subvert democracy.

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukraine has equipped drones to shoot shotguns to take out other drones.

Related threads:

The conflict in Lebanon. A few items.

Last edition:

Wars and Rumors of War, 2024. Part 7. Undermined.

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Wars and Rumors of War, 2024. Part 9. Sudden collapse edition.

You will hear of wars and rumors of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed. Such things must happen, but the end is still to come. Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom.

Matthew, Chapter 24.

British troops entering Damascus, October, 1918.

I am Syrian, I was made in Syria, I have to live in Syria and die in Syria. 

Bashar al-Assad

It is no exaggeration to say that Syria holds the key for nearly all of America's foreign policy goals in the Middle East. As Syria goes, so goes the region. 

Reza Aslan

From Syria even to Rome I fight with wild beasts, by land and sea, by night and by day, being bound amidst ten leopards, even a company of soldiers, who only grow worse when they are kindly treated.

Ignatius of Antioch

December 8, 2024

Syrian Civil War

Syrian rebels took Damascus and Assad has fled.  The Syrian army is still fighting in some places, but has declared it is not under Assad.

Syrian rebels have attacked Kurdish forces in the north of the country.

cont:

It appears that the Russian manufactured airplane carrying Assad and his family out of the country was shot down near the Lebanese border.  Or at least that's the rumor.

December 9, 2024

Syrian Civil War

Assad fled to Moscow and has received asylum.

Israel has seized positions in the Golan Heights outside of those it normally occupies.

cont:

Israel has occupied Mt. Hermon, Syria's highest peak, which puts Damascus within range of Israeli artillery.

December 11, 2024

Syrian Civil War

The US has been hitting ISIL targets in Syria since the fall of Assad.  Israel has been hitting Syrian Army supplies.  Turkey hit the Kurds with a drone strike.

December 13, 2024

Pope Francis.

Forgive us our trespasses: grant us your peace

I. Listening to the plea of an endangered humanity

1. At the dawn of this New Year given to us by our heavenly Father, a year of Jubilee in the spirit of hope, I offer heartfelt good wishes of peace to every man and woman. I think especially of those who feel downtrodden, burdened by their past mistakes, oppressed by the judgment of others and incapable of perceiving even a glimmer of hope for their own lives. Upon everyone I invoke hope and peace, for this is a Year of Grace born of the Heart of the Redeemer!

2. Throughout this year, the Catholic Church celebrates the Jubilee, an event that fills hearts with hope. The “jubilee” recalls an ancient Jewish practice, when, every forty-ninth year, the sound of a ram’s horn (in Hebrew, jobel) would proclaim a year of forgiveness and freedom for the entire people (cf. Lev 25:10). This solemn proclamation was meant to echo throughout the land (cf. Lev 25:9) and to restore God’s justice in every aspect of life: in the use of the land, in the possession of goods and in relationships with others, above all the poor and the dispossessed. The blowing of the horn reminded the entire people, rich and poor alike, that no one comes into this world doomed to oppression: all of us are brothers and sisters, sons and daughters of the same Father, born to live in freedom, in accordance with the Lord’s will (cf. Lev 25:17, 25, 43, 46, 55).

3. In our day too, the Jubilee is an event that inspires us to seek to establish the liberating justice of God in our world. In place of the ram’s horn, at the start of this Year of Grace we wish to hear the “desperate plea for help” [1] that, like the cry of the blood of Abel (cf. Gen 4:10), rises up from so many parts of our world – a plea that God never fails to hear. We for our part feel bound to cry out and denounce the many situations in which the earth is exploited and our neighbours oppressed. [2] These injustices can appear at times in the form of what Saint John Paul II called “structures of sin”, [3] that arise not only from injustice on the part of some but are also consolidated and maintained by a network of complicity.

4. Each of us must feel in some way responsible for the devastation to which the earth, our common home, has been subjected, beginning with those actions that, albeit only indirectly, fuel the conflicts that presently plague our human family. Systemic challenges, distinct yet interconnected, are thus created and together cause havoc in our world. [4] I think, in particular, of all manner of disparities, the inhuman treatment meted out to migrants, environmental decay, the confusion willfully created by disinformation, the refusal to engage in any form of dialogue and the immense resources spent on the industry of war. All these, taken together, represent a threat to the existence of humanity as a whole. At the beginning of this year, then, we desire to heed the plea of suffering humankind in order to feel called, together and as individuals, to break the bonds of injustice and to proclaim God’s justice. Sporadic acts of philanthropy are not enough. Cultural and structural changes are necessary, so that enduring change may come about. [5]

II. A cultural change: all of us are debtors

5. The celebration of the Jubilee spurs us to make a number of changes in order to confront the present state of injustice and inequality by reminding ourselves that the goods of the earth are meant not for a privileged few, but for everyone. [6] We do well to recall the words of Saint Basil of Caesarea: “Tell me, what things belong to you? Where did you find them to make them part of your life? … Did you not come forth naked from the womb of your mother? Will you not return naked to the ground? Where did your property come from? If you say that it comes to you naturally by luck, you would deny God by not recognizing the Creator and being grateful to the Giver”. [7] Without gratitude, we are unable to recognize God’s gifts. Yet in his infinite mercy the Lord does not abandon sinful humanity, but instead reaffirms his gift of life by the saving forgiveness offered to all through Jesus Christ. That is why, in teaching us the “Our Father”, Jesus told us to pray: “Forgive us our trespasses” ( Mt 6:12).

6. Once we lose sight of our relationship to the Father, we begin to cherish the illusion that our relationships with others can be governed by a logic of exploitation and oppression, where might makes right. [8] Like the elites at the time of Jesus, who profited from the suffering of the poor, so today, in our interconnected global village, [9] the international system, unless it is inspired by a spirit of solidarity and interdependence, gives rise to injustices, aggravated by corruption, which leave the poorer countries trapped. A mentality that exploits the indebted can serve as a shorthand description of the present “debt crisis” that weighs upon a number of countries, above all in the global South.

7. I have repeatedly stated that foreign debt has become a means of control whereby certain governments and private financial institutions of the richer countries unscrupulously and indiscriminately exploit the human and natural resources of poorer countries, simply to satisfy the demands of their own markets. [10] In addition, different peoples, already burdened by international debt, find themselves also forced to bear the burden of the “ecological debt” incurred by the more developed countries. [11] Foreign debt and ecological debt are two sides of the same coin, namely the mindset of exploitation that has culminated in the debt crisis. [12] In the spirit of this Jubilee Year, I urge the international community to work towards forgiving foreign debt in recognition of the ecological debt existing between the North and the South of this world. This is an appeal for solidarity, but above all for justice. [13]

8. The cultural and structural change needed to surmount this crisis will come about when we finally recognize that we are all sons and daughters of the one Father, that we are all in his debt but also that we need one another, in a spirit of shared and diversified responsibility. We will be able to “rediscover once for all that we need one another” and are indebted one to another. [14]

III. A journey of hope: three proposals

9. If we take to heart these much-needed changes, the Jubilee Year of Grace can serve to set each of us on a renewed journey of hope, born of the experience of God’s unlimited mercy. [15]

God owes nothing to anyone, yet he constantly bestows his grace and mercy upon all. As Isaac of Nineveh, a seventh-century Father of the Eastern Church, put it in one of his prayers: “Your love, Lord, is greater than my trespasses. The waves of the sea are nothing with respect to the multitude of my sins, but placed on a scale and weighed against your love, they vanish like a speck of dust”. [16] God does not weigh up the evils we commit; rather, he is immensely “rich in mercy, for the great love with which he loved us” ( Eph 2:4). Yet he also hears the plea of the poor and the cry of the earth. We would do well simply to stop for a moment, at the beginning of this year, to think of the mercy with which he constantly forgives our sins and forgives our every debt, so that our hearts may overflow with hope and peace.

10. In teaching us to pray the “Our Father”, Jesus begins by asking the Father to forgive our trespasses, but passes immediately to the challenging words: “as we forgive those who trespass against us” (cf. Mt 6:12). In order to forgive others their trespasses and to offer them hope, we need for our own lives to be filled with that same hope, the fruit of our experience of God’s mercy. Hope overflows in generosity; it is free of calculation, makes no hidden demands, is unconcerned with gain, but aims at one thing alone: to raise up those who have fallen, to heal hearts that are broken and to set us free from every kind of bondage.

11. Consequently, at the beginning of this Year of Grace, I would like to offer three proposals capable of restoring dignity to the lives of entire peoples and enabling them to set them out anew on the journey of hope. In this way, the debt crisis can be overcome and all of us can once more realize that we are debtors whose debts have been forgiven.

First, I renew the appeal launched by Saint John Paul II on the occasion of the Great Jubilee of the Year 2000 to consider “reducing substantially, if not cancelling outright, the international debt which seriously threatens the future of many nations”. [17] In recognition of their ecological debt, the more prosperous countries ought to feel called to do everything possible to forgive the debts of those countries that are in no condition to repay the amount they owe. Naturally, lest this prove merely an isolated act of charity that simply reboots the vicious cycle of financing and indebtedness, a new financial framework must be devised, leading to the creation of a global financial Charter based on solidarity and harmony between peoples.

I also ask for a firm commitment to respect for the dignity of human life from conception to natural death, so that each person can cherish his or her own life and all may look with hope to a future of prosperity and happiness for themselves and for their children. Without hope for the future, it becomes hard for the young to look forward to bringing new lives into the world. Here I would like once more to propose a concrete gesture that can help foster the culture of life, namely the elimination of the death penalty in all nations. This penalty not only compromises the inviolability of life but eliminates every human hope of forgiveness and rehabilitation. [18]

In addition, following in the footsteps of Saint Paul VI and Benedict XVI, [19] I do not hesitate to make yet another appeal, for the sake of future generations. In this time marked by wars, let us use at least a fixed percentage of the money earmarked for armaments to establish a global Fund to eradicate hunger and facilitate in the poorer countries educational activities aimed at promoting sustainable development and combating climate change. [20] We need to work at eliminating every pretext that encourages young people to regard their future as hopeless or dominated by the thirst to avenge the blood of their dear ones. The future is a gift meant to enable us to go beyond past failures and to pave new paths of peace.

IV. The goal of peace

12. Those who take up these proposals and set out on the journey of hope will surely glimpse the dawn of the greatly desired goal of peace. The Psalmist promises us that “steadfast love and faithfulness will meet; righteousness and peace will kiss” ( Ps 85:10). When I divest myself of the weapon of credit and restore the path of hope to one of my brothers or sisters, I contribute to the restoration of God’s justice on this earth and, with that person, I advance towards the goal of peace. As Saint John XXIII observed, true peace can be born only from a heart “disarmed” of anxiety and the fear of war. [21]

13. May 2025 be a year in which peace flourishes! A true and lasting peace that goes beyond quibbling over the details of agreements and human compromises. [22] May we seek the true peace that is granted by God to hearts disarmed: hearts not set on calculating what is mine and what is yours; hearts that turn selfishness into readiness to reach out to others; hearts that see themselves as indebted to God and thus prepared to forgive the debts that oppress others; hearts that replace anxiety about the future with the hope that every individual can be a resource for the building of a better world.

14. Disarming hearts is a job for everyone, great and small, rich and poor alike. At times, something quite simple will do, such as “a smile, a small gesture of friendship, a kind look, a ready ear, a good deed”. [23] With such gestures, we progress towards the goal of peace. We will arrive all the more quickly if, in the course of journeying alongside our brothers and sisters, we discover that we have changed from the time we first set out. Peace does not only come with the end of wars but with the dawn of a new world, a world in which we realize that we are different, closer and more fraternal than we ever thought possible.

15. Lord, grant us your peace! This is my prayer to God as I now offer my cordial good wishes for the New Year to the Heads of State and Government, to the leaders of International Organizations, to the leaders of the various religions and to every person of good will.

Forgive us our trespasses, Lord,

as we forgive those who trespass against us.

In this cycle of forgiveness, grant us your peace,

the peace that you alone can give

to those who let themselves be disarmed in heart,

to those who choose in hope to forgive the debts of their brothers and sisters,

to those who are unafraid to confess their debt to you,

and to those who do not close their ears to the cry of the poor.

From the Vatican, 8 December 2024

The Kurd's in control of northern Syria have ordered the pre 1964 Syrian flag, which is used by rebel forces, flown on their territory.

December 14, 2024

South Korea

In a process that's clearly different than the American one, the President of South Korea has been stripped of his powers for declaring martial law, but remains in office until a constitutional court decides his fate.  This is the result of an impeachment, one I'd note that worked.

December 16, 2024

Poland

Poland Poland has introduced compulsory military firearms classes in all its elementary and secondary schools.

December 17, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukrainian agents killed Russian Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov, who chief of Russia's Nuclear, Biological and Chemical Protection Troops, outside an apartment building in Moscow.

Last edition:

Wars and Rumors of War, 2024. Part 8. Wider wars.

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