Wars and Rumors of War, 2024. Part 8. Wider wars.

You will hear of wars and rumors of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed. Such things must happen, but the end is still to come. Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom.

Matthew, Chapter 24.

There is no hunting like the hunting of man, and those who have hunted armed men long enough and liked it, never care for anything else thereafter.

Ernest Hemingway.

August 7, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukrainian troops have advanced into Russia's Kursk Oblast and are in their second day of operations there.

August 8, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Rockets from northern Gaza have lead to an Israeli advisory in the area that residents should leave.

An arrest of ISIL terrorist who were plotting a strike in a European Taylor Swift concert lead to cancellation of events.

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukrainian forces have made confirmed advances up to 10 kilometers into Russia's Kursk Oblast amid continued mechanized offensive operations on Russian territory on August 7. Geolocated footage published on August 6 and 7 shows that Ukrainian armored vehicles have advanced to positions along the 38K-030 route about 10 kilometers from the international border.[1] The current confirmed extent and location of Ukrainian advances in Kursk Oblast indicate that Ukrainian forces have penetrated at least two Russian defensive lines and a stronghold.[2] A Russian insider source claimed that Ukrainian forces have seized 45 square kilometers of territory within Kursk Oblast since they launched the operation on August 6, and other Russian sources reported that Ukrainian forces have captured 11 total settlements, including Nikolaevo-Daryino (1.5 kilometers north of the Sumy Oblast border), Darino (three kilometers north of the Sumy Oblast border), and Sverdlikovo (east of the Nikolaevo-Darino-Darino area), and are operating within Lyubimovka (eight kilometers north of the Sumy Oblast border).

ISW.

August 9, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Russia has declared a Federal level emergency due to the incursion near Kursk.  Ukrainian advances have been fairly extensive.

August 10, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukrainian advances have resulted in evacuation orders being issued and the formation of some local anti government partisan units seeming to have formed.

August 15, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

The Ukrainians have taken the Russian town of Sudzha in the Kursk Oblast.

cont:

And now the Ukrainians are in Belgorod Oblast, south of Kursk Oblast, and directly north of Kharkov.

Resistance was strengthening in opposition to the offensive in Kursk, so they've side stepped it.

August 16, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Russia jailed dual US/Russian citizen ballerina  Ksenia Khavana for a $52.00 donation to a charity aiding Ukraine.

Indian has asked its citizens who live near the conflicts zones to relocated:

In view of the recent security incidents in Bryansk, Belgorod and Kursk regions, Indian nationals are advised to take necessary precautions and relocate outside these regions.  Any Indian national or student requiring assistance may contact the embassy.

Russian forces are attempting to encircle Ukrainian forces southeast of Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast.  While Ukrainian forces are on the offensive in Russia, Russian forces remain on the offensive in Ukraine.

August 17, 2024

Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States finalized a  trade agreement removing export barriers on defense goods and technology between them.

August 22, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Russian mercenary leader Georgy Zakrevsky has called for Putin to be removed.

August 25, 2024

ISIL v Everyone

ISIL claimed responsibility for a knife attack in Solingen, Germany, that killed three people and wounded eight others at a claiming the murder targeted Christians and did this to avenge Muslims and Palestinians everywhere, as if doing that in Germany would make a lick of sense whatsoever.

Middle Eastern War

Israel has been conducting air strikes in Gaza 

It conducted massive ones in southern Lebanon, to which Hezbollah responded with rockets.

I suspect that Israel is hitting targets heavily in advance of an anticipated cease fire.

cont:

Actually, the strike in Lebanon was a preemptive strike.

August 28, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukraine reports that Russia has lost over 600,000 men in its war with the country, of which over 180,000 were killed.

By way of a contrast, 58,220 Americans were killed in the Vietnam War.

The Russians have been advancing rapidly near Pokrovsk and are generally sustaining offensive operations in Ukraine.

September 4, 2024

China v. Taiwan

In a recent interview, the president of the Republic of China (Taiwan) suggested that the People's Republic of China, rather than bothering Taiwan, ought to cast its eyes on land that it lost to Russia in the 1850s and 1860s.

If it is for the sake of territorial integrity, why doesn’t it take back the lands occupied by Russia that were signed over in the Treaty of Aigun? Russia is now at its weakest, right? You can ask Russia (for the land back) but you don’t. So it’s obvious they don’t want to invade Taiwan for territorial reasons.

Here's the territory he referenced:

That's a lot of territory.

From the way it was said, I think the remark was meant to be flippant, rather than serious, but it does raise a real question which is, with Russia so weak, will China look north?

September 5, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Belarus scrambled fighters to shoot down Russian drones that invaded its airspace.

September 9, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Russian drones have entered Latvian and Romanian airspace within the past few days.

September 10, 2024

China v. India

Chinese special forces penetrated into India for up to 30 miles and stayed there for several days.  China and India's border is disputed.

September 11, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Apparently getting a big positive reaction in Poland:

Why don't you tell the 800,000 Polish Americans right here in Pennsylvania how quickly you would give up for the sake of favor, and what you think is a friendship with a dictator who would eat you for lunch?

Kamala Harris to Donald Trump in last night's debate.  Trump claimed he'd end the war, if elected, as President Elect, which a person would have to be an absolute idiot to believe. 

September 16, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Poland's foreign minister suggested ending social benefits for Ukrainian men living in Europe, which the Ukrainian government agreed with.  The goal would be to boost pressure on military aged men to return to the country and be available for military service.

September 17, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Pagers carried by Hezbollah operatives in Lebanon exploded at about the same time Tuesday afternoon injuring over 2,700 and killing eight.

Yikes.

September 18, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

A "massive" Ukrainian drone strike on Russian munitions' and fuel depots in Toropets, Tver, Russia has set things ablaze and resulted in a partial evacuation of the region.

For reference, this area is northwest of Moscow.

September 19, 2024

Middle Eastern War

And yesterday it occured again with two way radios.

September 20, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Israel launched major airstrikes in Lebanon directed at Hezbollah.  

The strikes against Hezbollah actually have received street level support in Arab countries, with Northern Syrian troops even passing out candy in celebration of the event in northern Syria.

Russo Ukrainian War

Putin rejected a request to mobilize made by senior Russian military leaders.  Knowing why Putin does what is hard to fathom, but speculation runs from a fear what it would do to the economy, to a fear what the public reaction would be.

On the latter, Ukraine is rapidly starting to resemble the US participation in the Vietnam War in some ways, and its notable that the US called up very few reservists in that conflict.

It became unpopular anyway, of course.

September 22, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Hezbollah retaliated with a massive rocket attack into Israel.  Israel responded with hundreds of airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon.

Israel closed down the Al Jazeera bureau in Gaza.

September 25, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Israel is calling up reservists and deploying them in the north in anticipation of a ground invasion of Lebanon.

September 29, 2024.

Middle Eastern War

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was killed in an Israeli airstrike.

October 1, 2024.

Middle Eastern War

Israel has commenced raids within Lebanon.

cont:

Iran struck Israel with missiles in retaliation.

October 6, 2024.

Middle Eastern War

Israel had expanded its missile campaign in Lebanon, hitting Hezbollah targets near Beirut and a Hamas target in northern Lebanon.

It's also reengaged in ground operations in Gaza.

October 8, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

The Ukrainians launched a major strike on a Russian petroleum facility on Crimea.

Somebody has launched a major cyber attack on Russian state media yesterday.

October 21, 2024.

Middle Eastern War

Israel has started targeting Hezbollah's financial wing, al-Qard al-Hassan, which operates as a cash based bank, in strikes in Lebanon.

October 22, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Where the money is:

https://x.com/i/status/1848438591409819750

October 23, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Israel killed major Hamas figure Yahya Ibrahim Hassan Sinwar.

Russo Ukrainian War

North Korea is sending large numbers of troops to Russia to fight against Ukraine.

October 23, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Israel conducted strikes on Iranian targets.

Russia has been supplying targeting information to the Houthis.

cont:

The Israeli airstrike was an actual air raid, with no losses.

The route is unclear, but this would involve overflights of at least three countries.  It shows Iranian air defenses to be completely anemic.

October 28, 2024

Russia

Possible Russian Gains in Georgia and Moldova

October 31, 2024

The war on ISIL

The US condcuted airstrikes on ISIL targets in Syria this week.

November 4, 2024

Russia v. The West

Western security officials say they believe that two incendiary devices, shipped via DHL, were part of a covert Russian operation that ultimately aimed to start fires aboard cargo or passenger aircraft flying to the U.S. and Canada, as Moscow steps up a sabotage campaign against Washington and its allies.

The devices ignited at DHL logistics hubs in July, one in Leipzig, Germany, and another in Birmingham, England. The explosions set off a multinational race to find the culprits.

Wall Street Journal. 

November 9, 2024

Iran v. the West.

Iranian agents were plotting to kill Donald Trump, but the plot was foiled by the FBI.  The plot was supposed to be put together quickly, and then if that could not be achieved, revived after the election, which they rationally expected him to lose.

November 18, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War.

The U.S. has approved use of the Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMs for Ukrainian strikes inside of Russia. This comes in response to Russian mustering of thousands of North Korean troops.

November 20, 2024

Russia and China v. The West

The Danish Navy boarded the Chinese-flagged bulk carrier Yi Peng 3, captained by a Russian, after it was suspected of damaging two undersea telecom cables in the Baltic Sea..

November 21, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Reports this morning hold that Russia hit Dnipro with an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).  If correct, its the first such use of an ICBM in history and would be an unconscionable escalation of the conflict.

November 23, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

The missile turns out to be a new intermediate range experimental Russian missile.

A North Korean general has been wounded in a Ukrainian missile attack near Kursk.

November 26, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Saudi Arabia is considering dropping the price of oil to $49/bbl to crush the Russian export oil market.

It'd crush the American one as well, which is pretty much what a new Trump administration would deserve, as would those oil producing states voting for him.

NPR Politics podcast on where the war may be headed, in light of the election of Trump:

Before leaving office, Biden wants to keep helping Ukraine

November 28, 2024

Middle Eastern War

A cease fire has been brokered by the US and France between Israel and Hezbollah.  This will require Hezbollah to withdraw, in Lebanon, north of a line in southern Lebanon.

It's worth noting that the Lebanese Army has largely sat the recent conflict out, probably hoping that Israel would destroy Hezbollah.  This agreement won't be good for Lebanon.

December 2, 2024

Syrian Civil War

A Sunni jihadist rebel group supported by Turkey has made serious gains, taking Aleppo in recent days.  In no small part this is due to the degrading of Russian support for the Syrian government and the degrading of Iranian support by Israel.  

This isn't, ironically, necessarily good news, as there's no reason to believe this group is democratic, or will bey sympathetic to Syrian minorities.

December 3, 2024

South Korea

In a bizarre episode South Korea was under martial law for a day, the President accusing the main opposition party of having communist sympathizers.  Parliament reversed his decision.

December 4, 2024

Syrian Civil War

The Russian Navy is evacuating naval assets from its base in Tartus, Syria,

December 6, 2024

Syrian Civil War

Syrian rebels took Hama, and appear likely to take Homs, in a drive that apparently seeks to sever Syria from the sea.

December 7, 2024

Syrian Civil War

Iran is withdrawing its troops from Syria, stating:

Iran is starting to evacuate its forces and military personnel because we cannot fight as an advisory and support force if Syria's army itself does not want to fight,  Iran has realized that it cannot manage the situation in Syria right now with any military operation and this option is off the table.

Rebels took Daraa and Sweida and the revolution is generally spreading everywhere.

December 26, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Finland has detained the Russian ship Eagle S after submarine cables in the Baltic were severed.  Estonia's parliament has gone into an emergency session on the Boxing Day holiday.

cont:

Russian air defenses downed an Azerbaijan Airlines plane that crashed in Kazakhstan.

December 27, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Israel struck Houthi targets in Yemen with airstrikes yesterday.   The strikes impressively demonstrates Israel's ability to strike targets with precision at distance via its air force.

Russo Ukrainian War

North Korean troops have sustained heavy casualties in combat against Ukraine.

Russia hit Ukraine in a massive air attack on Latin Rite Christmas Day.

December 28, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Houthis launched a massive missile raid on Israel yesterday.

South Korea

South Korea's legislature voted to impeach its acting president Han Duck-soo, two weeks after it voted to impeach its President Yoon Suk Yeol, in an example of how democratic bodies should act towards those who would seek to subvert democracy.

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukraine has equipped drones to shoot shotguns to take out other drones.

Related threads:

The conflict in Lebanon. A few items.

Last edition:

Wars and Rumors of War, 2024. Part 7. Undermined.

Labels: Black Sea, Bolivia, Bolivian Army, Haiti, Israel, Israeli Hamas War, Joseph Biden, Kenya, Russia, Russian Navy, Russo Ukrainian War, Sun Tzu, Ukraine, War, Wars and rumors of wars, Yemen

Turning the Tide in Ukraine (maybe) or at least helping them a bunch. What else the US can do. Part Two.

 

Gen. Clair Chennault.

Clair Chennault entered the U.S. Army during World War One, and resigned in 1937, going from there to China as a mercenary pilot for the Nationalist in their war against Japan.  Following a mission on behalf of the Chinese to the US in 1939, the US funded and equipped the American Volunteer Group of pilots, the legendary P-40 flying "Flying Tigers". They weren't in the US military, at least not at that time. They were, quite frankly, mercenaries, but specialized ones.

A bit different, as they were officially in the Royal Air Force, the British fielded three fighter squadrons made up of US volunteers.  "Eagle Squadrons"

There was a well-worn precedent for that.  During World War One, while Woodrow Wilson was promising to keep us out of war, the French fielded Escadrille N. 124, the  Escadrille de La Fayette.  It's pilots were Americans.

They weren't the only unit in the Great War like that.  Perhaps the most famous one was the Czech Legion, made up of Czech and Slovak volunteers who fought at first on the Eastern Front, and then fought their way across Siberia to Vladivostok so they could be taken to France, after the Russian Revolution broke out, to rejoin the Allied effort.

During the Mexican War, the Republic of Mexico fielded a unit of volunteer, mostly Irish and Irish American, artillerymen, known as the San Patricio's.  While Mexico lost the war, their performance was excellent.

The point?

Ukraine is taking in foreign volunteers for the Ukrainian Legion.  However, much more here could be done along the same lines as the AVG.  The AVG, basically, took in American military pilots used to American military gear, with that gear purchased for Nationalist China through an arrangement with the US.

This could be done in the war in Ukraine on a ground combat basis.

The US military was traditionally quite small before World War Two.  From 1947 through 1990, however, it was very large due to the Cold War, and it's not been inconsequential in size since that time.  The youngest of the Cold War warriors are now 52 years old, not young.  But maybe not as old, in modern terms, as it might seem.  At any rate, there are thousands of Americans in their 30s, 40s, and 50s who have served in the U.S. military.

Those men trained to fight the Soviet Union.  And they used, in many cases, late Cold War and early post Cold War US equipment.

This isn't unique to the U.S.  Germany only ended universal conscription of men n 2011.  France in 1996.  Thousands of men have served in the various NATO armies, using NATO standard equipment.

Why not create an American Volunteer Group and a European Volunteer Group and allow Ukraine to equip them with NATO standard weapons?  There's more than enough old NATO equipment, surely, to equip two divisions in this fashion.

Would they be elite?  Well, probably not, but they wouldn't be bad.  Some have actually trained to fight the very war that's being fought right now.

And then there's pilots and aircraft.

Lots of men trained to fly high test American fighters are now flying commercial jet liners.  Ukraine has asked for F-16s.  Why not give them the F-16s with volunteer pilots?

And, we might at this point, why not include A-10s?

Wars and Rumors of War, 2023, Part 7. Summer.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-26-2023

July 9, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

President Zelenskyy has been in Turkey where he met with and received oral support from the Turkish government, and where he appeared with Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew I, the head of the Eastern Orthodox Churches.

July 10, 2023

US v. ISIL

US Reaper drones killed had been flying ISIL leader Usamah al-Muhajir, while he was riding a motorcycle in the Aleppo region.  The same drones had earlier been harassed by Russian fighter aircraft.

July 11, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Turkey has quit blocking Sweden's admittance into NATO.

Russian submarine commander Stanislav Rzhitskiy, whose vessel fired on a Ukrainian city early in the war, was shot dead on a morning run near the Olimp sport complex in Krasnodar, southern Russia, according to reports.

July 12, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Turkey dropped objections to Sweden joining NATO, which shall now occur.

A missile strike reportedly killed Deputy Commander of the Russian Southern Military District, Lieutenant General Oleg Tsokov.

July 13, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Maj. Gen. Ivan Popov, the commander of the 58th Army, has been relieved of his command.  He announced his removal to his troops.

The Group of Seven and NATO signed agreements to offer Ukraine long-term security commitments, signalling a more formal arrangement to come, likely after the conclusion of the war.

This more or less means that unless Russia completely defeats Ukraine in the current war, one of Russia's war aims has been lost.

July 14, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

The US will be deploying 3,000 Reservists to Europe in support of the US's efforts to aid Ukraine.

July 14, cont:

By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, including sections 121 and 12304 of title 10, United States Code, I hereby determine that it is necessary to augment the active Armed Forces of the United States for the effective conduct of Operation Atlantic Resolve in and around the United States European Command’s area of responsibility.  In furtherance of this operation, under the stated authority, I hereby authorize the Secretary of Defense, and the Secretary of Homeland Security with respect to the Coast Guard when it is not operating as a service in the Navy, under their respective jurisdictions, to order to active duty any units, and any individual members not assigned to a unit organized to serve as a unit of the Selected Reserve, or any member in the Individual Ready Reserve mobilization category and designated as essential under regulations prescribed by the Secretary concerned, not to exceed 3,000 total members at any one time, of whom not more than 450 may be members of the Individual Ready Reserve, as they deem necessary, and to terminate the service of those units and members ordered to active duty.

This order is not intended to, and does not, create any right or benefit, substantive or procedural, enforceable at law or in equity by any party against the United States, its departments, agencies, or entities, its officers, employees, or agents, or any other person.

                             JOSEPH R. BIDEN JR.

This is the first time I've actually seen an order which refers to the Individual Ready Reserve.  It makes sense, actually, as IRR troops may have individual skills that would be useful in a t raining role.

My guess is that the IRR troops will be all volunteers for activation.

July 15, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Putin has indicated that he intends to keep the Wagner Group as a fighting force, but separated from its leader.

The SA, we would not, never amounted to what it had been before Ernst Röhm was offed.

July 16, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Wagner has been seen in Belarus and there are plans for it to conduct joint drills with the Belorussian army.

Something about this is really odd, and has to relate to whatever deal was struck.   The Belorussian Army is generally regarded as pretty bad, FWIW.

Russian 106th Guards Airborne (VDV) Division Commander Major General Vladimir Seliverstov has been relieved of his command.  It is not known why, but he was noted for speaking up for his troops.

July 17, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Russia has pulled out of the Black Sea grain shipment deal.

On This Week, Chris Christie maintained that Russia's war in Ukraine is being backed by the Chinese for Chinese objectives. This is becoming a persistent Republican theme.  That the Chinese may be backing Russia doesn't surprise me, but the suggestion that the war is a Chinese proxy war, which is being made, doesn't ring true.

July 18, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Attempting to take advantage of commitment of Ukrainian forces elsewhere, the Russians are mounting an offensive in northeast Ukraine.

Ukraine hit the bridge from Crimea to the mainland again, heavily damaging it.

July 19, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

As Russian minefields take their toll on western-supplied tanks and Ukrainian sappers, their forces have so-far retaken approximately five miles of the sixty miles they need to split the land-bridge connecting Russia to Crimea. The land between Mariupol in the east and Melitopol to the west is seen as the vital ground to achieving this.

It is incredibly tough going for the Ukrainians. They lack the air cover and advanced jets to protect their ground forces from Russian attack helicopters and fighters. Their soldiers, meanwhile must negotiate miles of minefields, tank-traps and then ultimately the heavily dug Russian trench networks.

This gruelling endeavour was always going to take longer than the occasionally impatient international audience was prepared to wait for. It is a military effort of immense proportions, where mass, manpower, morale, equipment, stocks, logistics, grit and luck all play vital roles. So far, the Ukrainians are displaying all of these military qualities.

* * * 

While much fighting remains to be done across Ukraine’s southern farmlands over the coming months, governments across the west must be prepared for the grim prospect of territorial concessions as one potential political outcome of a failed counter-offensive. Whether a Putinist Kremlin would respect such a deal if Kyiv were to receive security pledges short of full Nato membership is extremely doubtful.  

Regardless, this would surely be a favoured outcome for China’s ruling “wolf warrior” foreign policy elite. Beijing would be utterly delighted if the war were to end with Ukraine divided, Russian troops permanently in the Donbas harassing Kyiv and Europe, and Nato fractured on political lines. Such an outcome would be a gift to China as Xi Jinping begins to ramp up his own imperialistic and extra-territorial ambitions across the Indo-Pacific – and a devastating defeat for the West. 

The Telegraph. 

Russia is amassing vast numbers of troops and equipment along the northern frontline in Ukraine, Kyiv has warned.

Serhii Cherevatyi, spokesperson for the Eastern Group of Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, told local television that Moscow had gathered more than 100,000 troops on the Lyman-Kupiansk axis, as well as 900 tanks, 555 artillery systems and 370 multiple rocket launchers.

Newsweek. 

The Ukrainians are obviously not beaten, and ISW feels the troops in the north that Russia intends to commit to a counteroffensive are of poor quality and will not be successful, but it's obviously the case that the Ukrainian offensive is not achieving its goals in the face of Russian defense in depth and massive use of mines.

July 20, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Russia conducted a missile offensive on Ukrainian ports yesterday, no doubt designed to disrupt Ukrainian grain shipments.

July 21, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

July 21, cont.

Igor Girkin, who is associated with the shooting down of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17, killing 298 people, was arrested in Russia today by Russian authorities.

Heads continue to keep rolling.

July 24, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Now Ukraine is in a battle to get back more of the land that Russia seized from it. It's already taken back about 50 percent of what was initially seized. Now they're in a very hard fight to take back more. These are still relatively early days of the counteroffensive. It is tough.

Secretary of State Anthony Blinken. 

Drones hit two buildings in Moscow.

A Russian missile strike on Odessa badly damaged the Cathedral of the Transfiguration.

July 26, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukraine has launched a massive offensive action against Russians in the Zaporizhzhia region. They appear to have cleared defensive obstacles and are pushing through.

July 27, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukrainian forces launched a significant mechanized counteroffensive operation in western Zaporizhia Oblast on July 26 and appear to have broken through certain pre-prepared Russian defensive positions south of Orikhiv. Russian sources, including the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and several prominent milbloggers, claimed that Ukrainian forces launched an intense frontal assault towards Robotyne (10km south of Orikhiv) and broke through Russian defensive positions northeast of the settlement.[1] Geolocated footage indicates that Ukrainian forces likely advanced to within 2.5km directly east of Robotyne during the attack before Russian forces employed standard doctrinal elastic defense tactics and pushed Ukrainian troops back somewhat, although not all the way back to their starting positions.

There are now multiple reports that a "second phase" or "main phase" of the Ukrainian summer offensive have been launched

Niger

Members of the armed forces are attempting a coup.

Syria

Russian Air Force fighters continue to interfere with American drones.

July 31, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukrainian drones struck targets in Moscow again within the last 24 hours.

Former President Donald Trump, and current candidate, urged aid to Ukraine to be suspended until evidence regarding Hunter Biden is submitted fully to Congress.

These topics are not rationally related to each other, but Trump is demonstrating increasing irrationality in the face of multiple criminal investigations concerning his post election activities.

China v. US

It is being asserted that China has inserted malware into computer networks servicing U.S bases.

August 4, 2023

An attack on the Russian port of Novorossiysk by Ukrainian drones resulted in a Russian warship capsizing.

August 6, 2023

Niger

The military asked for help from the Wagner Group to defend itself against anticipated military action by African states to restore the democracy in that country.

Russo Ukrainian War

From the Trib:

DRONES STRIKE RUSSIAN TANKER, PORT

Russia raised the upper limit for conscription to 30 years of age.

August 7, 2023

Niger

Niger has closed its airspace.

August 13, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Poland is deploying up to 10,000 troops on its border with Belarus due to the presence of Wagner mercenaries being deployed on the Belorussian side of the border.

August 17, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukraine has taken Urozhaine.

August 18, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

A Defense Department briefing of Congressmen has stated that Ukraine will not reach the southeastern city of Melitopol, presuming that to be a key objective, and therefore will not sever Russia’s land bridge to Crimea this year.  

The report attributes it to minefields and Ukraine determining to ignore Western advice to use a schwerpunkt, particularly after having encountered initial heavy Russian resistance and large-scale losses, something amplified by a lack of air cover.

The report finds that Ukrainian forces will remain several miles outside of Melitopol at the conclusion of the offensive.

There's no way to put a happy face on this conclusion, if it comes true.  Opting for attriting Russian forces was reverting to World War One tactics.

At the same time, however, there are now reports of Ukraine committing troops in large numbers which it had held back earlier.

August 18, cont:

A less gloomy view:

August 20, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukrainian troops have broken through to the north of Tokmak.

Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike on Soltsy airbase in Novgorod Oblast.

August 22, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukrainian forces made tactically significant gains in and east of Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast on August 20-21 while continuing counteroffensive operations on the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast administrative border and in eastern Ukraine.

August 23, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin was on the passenger list of a jet which crashed killing all on board, Russia's civil aviation authority has said. 

The BBC.

It can't help but be noted that opponents of Putin have a bizarrely high attrition rate and an unusual number of accidents.  It could just be coincidence, but it's weird.

cont:  

The early reports had this plane as shot down.

Video shows a plane that looks like it was shot down.

cont:

President Biden on the death of Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin: "I said I would be careful of what I drink and what I rode in. I don't know for a fact what happened, but I'm not surprised."

CSPAN.

As an aside, somehow those who hate everything Biden and love everything Trump will find a way to criticize that pretty honest comment, whereas if Trump said the same thing (which he couldn't due to his weird diction), they'd think it the soul of wit.

August 24, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and the Kremlin have been destroying the Wagner private military company (PMC) and weakening Prigozhin’s authority since the rebellion – and the assassination of Wagner’s top leadership was likely the final step to eliminate Wagner as an independent organization. 

Cont:

Kristina Raspopova.

She was the flight attendant of Embraer Legacy 600 Business Jet blown out of the sky in order to kill Yevgeny Prigozhin and other Wagnerites.  The young woman had taken the flight in order to be able to return home and to her next station early.

It's not possible to weep for Yevgeny Prigozhin.  He lived by the sword and died by it, and the actions of his men have been brutal.  It is possible to hope that he realized the gravity of his sins and reconciled before his death.

But killing innocent stewardesses is just flat out murder.

August 25, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukraine conducted an amphibious commando raid on the facilities of the Crimean municipalities of Olenivka and Mayak.

August 27, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukrainian forces continue to grain in the western Zaporizhia Oblast and may be close to breaking out.

August 30, 2023

Gabon

The Gabonese Army has taken over that country in a coup following an election which returned to office a member of the family that has ruled the country for 50 years.

Russo Ukrainian War.

Ukrainian paratroopers, in a ground assault role, are flanking Russian positions at Novoprokopivka, a town that sits on the T0408/0401 road threading south through Tokmak to Melitopol.

Ukraine is receiving an additional $250,000,000 in U.S. aid.

A Ukrainian drone attack occured on the airfield at Pskov.

August 31, 2023

China v. Taiwan

The US has approved $80,000,000 in aid to Taiwan under the Foreign Military Financing, something normally only done for soveign states.

Taiwan, which is the Republic of China, has never declared independence from China. Rather, it's claim to be China's legitimate government has been quietly abandoned over the years.  The People's Republic of China, of course, claims the island as it's own and continually threatens to invade it.  In reality, Taiwan is de facto independent if not de jure, a status which really ought to change, and which this is a step towards.

It'll probably enrage the Red menance.

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukrainian light infantry has infiltrated east of Russian field fortifications near Verbove.

Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov has reiterated his loyalty to Russian President Vladimir Putin in a continued attempt to distance himself from the late Yevgeny Prigozhin.   I ownder if he's avoiding going up stairs recently?

Last Prior Edition:

Wars and Rumors of War, 2023, Part 6. Late Spring.

Recent Related Threads:

Magic Weapons

Movies In History: The Wild Geese

Some time ago I started listening to the excellent Fighting On Film podcast by two British gentlemen.  It's excellent.

This 1978 movie is one of the first movies they reviewed, and apparently it has an enormous cult following in the UK, particularly amongst military movie fans and British servicemen.  It's a guilty pleasure of mine, and I was surprised to find that I'd never reviewed it.

Set in the 1970s at the tail end of the mercenary era in Africa, the plot involves a group of British mercenaries, all with British Army backgrounds, who are recruited to serve in a commando mission to free a secretly imprisoned African leader.  Outfitted with merchant banker money, the band assembled in the UK and trains in Africa, outfitted in period British uniforms (but with the members retaining the berets and cap badges of their old units), and generally European NATO firearms of the era.  They preform their mission of rescuing the president, only to be betrayed, and then must fight their way, basically, to Rhodesia.

Coming just at the end of that period in time in which there had been in fact a lot of European mercenaries with roles in Africa, and in fact advised by "Mad" Mike Hoare, who was one of the more famous ones, the film had a certain air of credibility to it.  It's loved, as noted, by British military film aficionados.

Frankly, the film ain't great.

It has a good cast, including Richard Burton, Roger Moore, Richard Harris and Hardy Kruger.   The rough outline of the plot, taken from a novel, isn't bad.  The equipment is fascinating.  

But, the production values are frankly low, and the actors, save for Kruger and Moore, are past their prime and not credible in their roles at all. Burton, as Col. Faulkner, was well into his alcoholic demise at the time and looks like he'd not make it more than a few 100 yards into the bush.  Harris, who looked vibrant a decade prior in Major Dundee, doesn't look much better.  It just doesn't work.

Still, like Major Dundee (which is much better), there's just enough there, there, that the film is worth watching and somehow compelling.  It's heavily flawed, but you can almost see the move that might have been.

In terms of historical accuracy, we'll just note that there was a lot of mercenary action in Africa in the 60s and 70s as the old European empires fell apart.  Professional European soldiers, not all of them the most reputable, found roles in those wars, most notably in the Congo.  A certain cache developed about them that found itself expressed in novels and films, with this being one of the better known ones.

In terms of material details, the producers of this film chose to outfit the actors as if they were a British army unit of the time, and they look like one.  That probably isn't how an actual mercenary outfit would look, but as is often noted about this film, these guys do look good in the uniforms, physical decline aside.  The weapons chosen are a mixture of older British pattern uniforms and selective fire FALS, which are clearly not being really fired, as the recoil from a FAL on full automatic is pretty heavy.

All in all, it's entertaining, but not great.

Wars and Rumors of War, 2023, Part 6. Late Spring.

June 6, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Some sort of Ukrainian offensive has started in southern Ukraine and in the Donetsk region.

The Russians have breached the Kakhovka dam within the territory they hold, probably as part of an effort to flood the battlefield.

June 7, 2023

Apparently, the breaching of the subject dam flooded Russian positions and carried some Russian soldiers off to their deaths.

June 8, 2023

The Ukrainian spring offensive has begun.

June 12, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukraine has been tight-lipped with information regarding the offensive, but it is now known that there have been advances in the south-eastern portion of the country and some villages have been liberated from Russian control, including Blagodatnoye and Neskuchnoe, They also continue to advance around Bakhmut.

Sudanese Civil War

Fighting resumed in the capital yesterday.

June 13, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukrainian partisans destroyed a train carrying diesel fuel near Mariupol.  

The reservoir drained by Russian action has drained to the point where bodies of Soviet and German soldiers from the Second World War have been revealed.

June 13, 2023, cont.

Russian source are reporting that the Ukrainian Army is in Tokmak which, if true, puts them 63 km, or 40 miles, from Mariupol.  40 miles is a long way in military terms, but it that is true, and it may very well not be, Ukrainians are well on their way towards isolating Crimea.

Major General Sergei Goryachev, Chief of Staff of the 35th Combined Arms Army, was killed yesterday by a Ukrainian missile strike in the Zaporizhzhia region.

June 20, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

An odd comment from Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov:

Indeed, Ukraine was heavily militarized at the time of the beginning of the Special Military Operation. And, as Putin said yesterday, one of the tasks was to demilitarize Ukraine. In fact, this task is largely completed. Ukraine is using less and less of its weapons. And more and more it uses the weapons systems that Western countries supply it with.

This could be an example of random verbal slip ups, but it could also signal an intent to declare victory and go home in some fashion.

Having said that, there's now real reason to worry that the Ukrainian Spring Offensive will be a failure.   The Ukrainian Army is advancing, but quite slowly.  Both sides are taking heavy casualties.

June 23, 2023

Russia Civil War?

This is odd:

Wagner Chief Says Russian Military Launched Strikes on His Camps, Vows Retaliation

Perhaps the age-old lesson about why using mercenaries is a bad idea is being played out here.

Or perhaps the age-old lesson about not betraying your mercenaries is being played out here.

June 23, 2023, cont

Russian media is now terming the Wagner group's actions a "revolt" by its leader, and are urging Wagner troops to arrest him.

This is either the end of Wagner or the beginning of a really messy episode in Russia.

June 23, cont

Wagner forces and Russian Army forces are now fighting in Rostov On Don.

June 24, 2023

Russian Civil War

Putin made a broadcast appeal for Wagner to end its rebellion, without naming them by name.  Translated by the Washington Post, which published the short address in full, it concludes:

As the President of Russia and Supreme Commander-in-Chief, as a citizen of Russia, I will do everything to defend the country, to protect the constitutional order, the lives, security and freedom of citizens.

The one who organized and prepared the military rebellion, who raised arms against their comrades-in-arms, betrayed Russia. And they will answer for it. And I urge those who are being dragged into this crime not to make a fatal and tragic, unparalleled mistake, to make the only right choice — to stop participating in criminal acts.

I believe that we will preserve and defend what is dear and sacred to us, and together with our Motherland we will overcome any trials, we will become even stronger.

This leaves Prigozhin now way out.

Wagner forces have been seen convoying north, as far north, as Kolodezsky, Lipetsk Oblast. That's halfway between Rostov and Moscow.

June 24, cont:

Moscow's mayor has declared Monday a day off and urged workers not to report to work Monday.

Putin's airplane departed Moscow, but it is not known who is on board it.

One report, goodness knows how reliable it is or isn't, has the police in Moscow pondering which side to land on, as they don't have the resources to oppose an actual military force.

Wow. Shades of Russia 1917, or is it Germany, July 44?

June 25, 2023

Wagner Uprising/Russo Ukrainian War

This bizarre drama seems to have played out.

Wagner mercenary chieftain Yevgeny Prigozhin, whose forces only yesterday were advancing unimpeded on Moscow, and who shot down seven Russian aircraft along the way, and who seemed set to depose Putin, struck a deal with the modern Czar in which his forces return, more or less to barracks, and he takes up exile in Belarus.

He better sleep with one eye open.

There's been utterly nothing like this whatsoever in modern times.

His forces that remain under arms will enter the Russian Army.

The U.S. was apparently aware of the intended uprising before it occurred and had informed Kyiv. While it demonstrated that there'rs nothing in the Russian rear, Ukraine does not appear to have been able to take advantage of the situation.

June 26, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

June 27, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Reports hold that the Ukrainian Army has crossed the Antonovsky Bridge over the Dnieper in Kherson Oblast.

Some Wagner troops are being redeployed to Belarus.  This is not insignificant and may signal how Putin put down the rebellion.  Wagner troops may now be committed to that region, in preparation for offensive actions from the north.  It's worth remembering that Prigozhin complained earlier on that Putin wasn't being aggressive enough in Ukraine, and Putin has been trying to get Belarus to commit to the war.

ISW, on this, reports:

Some Wagner Group forces may follow Prigozhin to Belarus. Russian opposition outlet Verstka reported on June 26 that Belarusian authorities are constructing several new camps to house the Wagner Group fighters in Belarus and that the construction of a 24,000 square kilometer base for 8,000 Wagner Group fighters is already underway in Asipovichy, Mogilev Oblast.[7] The location of a Wagner Group base in Asipovichy does not pose an immediate threat against Ukraine; Asipovichy is about 200 kilometers from Belarus’ international border with Ukraine, and the establishment of new Wagner Group bases in Gomel or Brest oblasts on the border with Ukraine would be much more alarming. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko may seek to use the Prigozhin and Wagner Group fighters to balance against a longstanding Russian effort to establish a permanent military presence in Belarus, though the extent to which Lukashenko can successfully co-opt Prigozhin or refuse a potential Russian extradition demand for Prigozhin or Wagner fighters in Belarus remains unclear. Prigozhin’s personal whereabouts remain unclear as of June 26, though some unconfirmed reports suggest that he is in the “Green City Hotel” in western Minsk City.[8]

Belarus will not offer Prigozhin or Wagner fighters a true haven if the Kremlin pressures Belarus, however. Putin may be presenting Belarus as a haven for Wagner fighters as a trap. The Kremlin will likely regard the Wagner Group personnel who follow Prigozhin to Belarus as traitors whether or not it takes immediate action against them. Putin notably stated in his June 26 speech that Wagner Group fighters are permitted to go to Belarus and that Putin will keep his unspecified “promise” about Wagner fighters who choose to do so.[9] Putin’s acknowledgement that he made a personal promise, presumably that Wagner personnel who went to Belarus would be safe there, was remarkable. The long-term value of that promise, Putin’s speech notwithstanding, is questionable. Wagner Group personnel in Belarus are unlikely to remain safe from Russian extradition orders if Putin reneges and charges them with treason. Lukashenko previously turned over 33 Belarusian-detained Wagner personnel to Moscow after using them as leverage against the Kremlin in 2020, and there is no apparent reason why he would not do so again.[10]

ISW's take on this is definitely different, noting that this would be a refuge for Prigozhin loyalist.  For that matter, Wagner, which has operations in Africa, needs to retain a base, as does Prigozhin.

Prigozhin may be facing loyalty problems himself now, as troops that followed him are now denouncing him, having been led into a rebellion, and now feeling abandoned.

Putin, having avoided ending up a target on the Kremlin's wall, is talking tough about Wagner leadership and loyalist again, once again branding them traitors.  It's almost certain that senior Wagner leadership will end up dead, as will Prigozhin, if our first speculation isn't correct. Even if it is, they may ultimately end up dead anyway.  Prigozhin is now playing up his loyalty to Putin.  ISW's view on the situation is that Putin's rupture with Prigozhin is complete.

June 28, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War/Russian Civil War

Leaked US intelligence holds that senior Russian military figures were aware of Prigozhin's coup attempt and may have supported it in varying degrees.

This is an indication that this story really hasn't played out yet.  If that's correct, those figures need to decide if they'll accept the fate of those who support failed coups, or if the effort to replace Putin is still on.  If significant numbers of senior Russian officers have cast their lot with Prigozhin, they could likely still pull off a change in government.

ISW reports that Belarus brokered the settlement with the goal of taking in Wagner troops as a hedge against Russia. The thesis that Belarus' seeks to avoid through pressure what Ukraine is resisting through military force, inclusion into Russia.

Ukrainian airborne has retaken some territory which was taken by the Russians in 2014.

June 29, 2023

Russian Civil War

General Sergey Surovikin, a senior Russian general, was arrested yesterday for his role in supporting the attempted coup.

June 30, 2023

Chinese Balloon

The US has concluded that the balloon did not gather intelligence over its flight over the U.S.

Frankly, I'm skeptical as to that conclusion, but that's the conclusion.

Russian Civil War/Russo Ukrainian War

A second Russian general,Valery Gerasimov, has disappeared, and the Russians are questioning pilots who refused to fire on Wagner forces.

Newsweek ran an op ed by author Rebekah Koffler, president of Doctrine & Strategy Consulting, and a former DIA intelligence officer, which asserts that the coup was a false flag operation designed to bolster Putin's status in the face of an upcoming election and to reposition Wagner troops in Belarus.

This now seems unlikely.  One of the arguments she makes in favor of her argument is that the entire episode was hopelessly weird, which is quite true, but much of Russian history is likewise hopelessly weird.  What other nation would see its army stand by while its leader committed mass murder of its leadership?

Ukrainian troops are praising the qualities of the Bradley Armored Fighting Vehicle.

Ukraine claims to have seized the "strategic initiative" near Bakhmut.

Syrian Civil War

The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) and Russian forces conducted airstrikes on rebel positions in Idlib Province between June 25 and 27. The head of the Russian Reconciliation Center, which is affiliated with the Russian Ministry of Defense in Syria, said the strikes responded to militants in Idlib Province that launched drone strikes into Syrian regime-held territory on June 22 and 23

There is further speculation that Iran may begin to participate in this mater on the Syrian government side.

If so, Russia is really playing with fire.  Iranian long term goals don't match Russia's at all. 

It's also an interesting example of how a really second rate army can still be a major force where the other forces are third rate.\

July 2, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War/Russian Civil War

Belorussian rebels report the construction of camps at a former military facility 140 miles from the Ukrainian border, which would appear to be for Wagner troops.

July 3, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukraine reports taking back 14.4 Square miles this past week. Slow-going is partially due to heavy Russian use of mines.

Israel/Palestinians

Israeli forces launched a large military operation in the occupied West Bank city of Jenin.

July 5, 2023

Israel/Palestinians

Israel pulled its forces back out of Jenin, but warned such raids could happen again in the future.

July 6, 2023

Russian Civil War

Wagner's troops have remained in their camps in Russia and its leader was sited in St. Petersburg, all of which is quite odd under the circumstances.

US v. ISIL

Russian jets harassed U.S. drones targeting ISIL.

July 7, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

The US is sending cluster munitions to Ukraine.

July 7, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

The Ukrainians have made significant tactical gains around Bakhmut.

The Russians have deployed Russian almost the entire Russian Eastern Grouping of Forces to southern Ukraine.  This would mean that either they anticapte a massive Ukrainian effort shortly, or they have sustained so many losses that they are now in the effective position of committing all of their reserves.

Last prior edition:

Wars and Rumors of War, 2023, Part 5. La Golondrina

Related threads:

Ack. War reporting by people who know nothing about the military. Armored losses in Ukraine.

Uprising In Russia? What just happened?

Uprising In Russia? What just happened?

Eee gads.The private army of Yevgeny Prigozhin, which has fought as a Russian proxy all over the world, and which first made its appearance in the Russian grab of Crimea in 2014, rebelled earlier this week, took Rostov (to the apparent welcome of its residents), dashed north, and appeared to be well on its way to taking Moscow.  Russian police were apparently debating whom to side with.  Some Russian soldiers threw in with him. Seven Russia air force aircraft were shot down.

A nuclear arms facility surrendered without putting up a fight. . . (oh, oh).

And not it's all over, Prigozhin having stood down and agreed to go into exile in Belorussian (lucky them), and some of his troops receiving spots in the Russian Army as contract soldiers.

This doesn't come close to making sense.

Had he continued to advance, Putin would have fell. Russia might have descended into multi factional civil war (it's done it before).

Putin's enemies have a way of flying out hotel windows.

Prigozhin knows that.

This really doesn't add up at all.

In modern coups, you really don't make a deal like this.  There's no modern precedent.  As my history minded son reminded me, there are medieval ones, but that doesn't happen anymore.

This doesn't even happen in movies like The Wild Geese.

Once you strike against the king, you have to win.

What happened?

From an earlier era:

Wars and Rumors of War, 2023. The Bear and the Trident. The Russo Ukrainian War crosses the calendar year.

South Korean M48s.  There are large numbers of these and M60s that are upgradable to a state sufficiently advanced to take on the Russian armor.  The Ukrainians should be given them.  I'm not the only one to suggest this.

A new year, a new thread, for new and old wars and rumors of war.

I posted the photograph above from 1986 to make a point, one that I was making I thought alone for a while, but now I've seen elsewhere.

The US has vast quantifies of mid Cold War era material that is still useful and could still go overseas to aid Ukraine.  This equipment was built to fight the Soviets, just as the junky stuff the Russians use was built to fight us.  It may not be our current standard, but it's there and if we're not going to use it now, we probably never will, unless we fear that a ground war with China is imminent and will be so bad, we'll need this stuff.

Having said that, by this point, Ukraine is well on its way toward having much more modern equipment, both in the form of latest generation Russian captured equipment, and material that NATO has supplied.

If Ukraine is going to win this war, in my view, at this point, it needs to launch a successful winter campaign and that's going to be equipment consuming.  Moreover, in order to get Russia to the negotiating table, at this point, I think they'll need to recapture all of their lost territory and enter Russia's Rostov Oblast and advance to the Don.

January 1, 2023.

Russo-Ukrainian War

Vladimir Putin's New Year's address indicated no sign of a willingness to negotiate with Ukraine, while President Zelenskyy's praised his people for their stalwart defense of their country.  There is no reason to believe that the war will end soon, or that Russia is ready to give up in spite of its battlefield defeats.  Indeed, irrespective of them, it has not exhausted its resources and, with no real democratic input into the war, Putin can afford to keep it running.

Ukraine can afford to keep it running as well, as long as the West remains in its corner.  With the U.S. Congress turning over and Republicans taking control of the House, there's some reason to believe that things will get more difficult for Ukraine.  In the Senate, Mitch McConnell has been a strong backer of Ukraine.  Ukraine lost a strong backer in Liz Cheney, and the new crop of Republicans includes many of the Trumpist isolationist strain who set the US on the road to retreat in Afghanistan.  So far, self-declared Republican Kevin McCarthy has pledged to keep backing Ukraine, but to keep a more careful eye on the assets going there, showing McCarthy's knack for spitting the baby, maybe.  For that matter, McCarthy may not be ascending to the lofty heights he's been aiming for.

Republicans barely control the House, of course, and not all Republicans are isolationist or Trumpists.

January 5, 2023.

Ukraine is claiming that Russia has sustained 10,000 combat deaths in the last two weeks, a remarkable figure if true.

Russia has deployed new ship launched missiles to the Atlantic.

Putin has declared a ceasefire for Orthodox Christmas. Orthodox Christmas is on January 7.  Interestingly, in Ukraine, the country generally celebrates Christmas on the Gregorian Calendar, which of course has already occurred, with the Orthodox celebrating the religious holiday on the Julian Calendar, which this year is on January 7.  The Russian ceasefire declaration is interesting in that one of the declared purposes of the Russian invasion was to defend Orthodoxy, and the dual nature of the Ukrainian celebration somewhat demonstrates its drift to the West.  Of course, Catholic Ukrainians already celebrate the religious and civil holiday on the same day.

January 6, 2023

Kyiv rejected Putin's proposal for a truce over Orthodox Christmas.

France is sending AMX-10s to Ukraine.  Contrary to the way this tends to be reported, they are not tanks, but very heavy armored cars.  They are also a fully modern weapon, so their provision as an armored fighting vehicle is significant.

January 8, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

The war has oddly begun to resemble the First World War in some ways, with localized actions that measure success in feet and yards, rather than miles.

The Russians, deploying the mercenary Wagner Group, have been struggling to take Bakhmut which some Ukrainian sources reported as surrounded yesterday.  ISW, which is highly reliable, reports that it is not.  Indeed, they reported the claim as "bizarre".

Iran

While continuing to suffer a state of near internal insurrection, Iran continues to project its power outwards.  Here's an interesting development:

Iran Converting Two Panamax Container Ships to “Drone Carriers”

January 9, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

The Russians claimed to hit and cause casualties on a Ukrainian training facility yesterday, in retaliation for the Ukrainian hit of a building used by Russians that killed at least 89 Russian soldiers.

This is an example of the bizarrely petulant and childish attitude that the Russians have had throughout this war, in which they complain about actions taken by their enemy that are well within the law of war.  Explaining this is difficult.

January 10, 2023

Fierce fighting is occurring between Ukrainian forces and Wagner mercenaries near Soledar and Bakhmut. Wagner is promoting their role in this, but while they are in fact fighting well, for very limited objectives, they're taking massive casualties.

January 12, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

The Russians are engaging in high level command shakeups.

There is speculation that shakeups are occurring as Putin is dissatisfied with results, as he should be, but is doubling down on his view that Ukraine can be taken by force. If this is correct, and there's good reason to believe that it is, the war is nowhere near close to being concluded and a major Russian spring offensive will be attempted.

There's also speculation that a serious struggle is going on inside Russian circles over the role of the Wagner group, which is pushing, much like the SS did during World War Two, to achieve official status as an "elite" Russian unit, rather than a mercenary group.    Not surprisingly, the Russian army doesn't like this possibility, while the Wagner Group is angling for it, in part by popularizing its ongoing bloody operations.

Regarding that, those operations appear to explain the recruiting from jails done by the mercenary organization earlier. These troops are being used like German and Soviet penal formations were in World War Two, with their purpose to sap enemy strength at the likely cost of their own lives.  Ukrainians noted earlier their high death rate and, among those captured, how many had serious diseases such as AIDS.  Their combat survivability likely is irrelevant to the Russians, as they're using up Ukrainian munitions.  This may be true to some degree of hastily deployed conscripts as well, although the Russians have to be more careful about them.

Mali

Fourteen Malian soldiers were killed and 11 wounded in two attacks in regions where Al-Qaeda aligned forces are operative.

January 13, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

The Russians took Soledar yesterday.

Update:

Coat of arms for Soledar

How big of a city is that?

Well, it had a population of about 10,000 before the war.  It's known for its former salt mine, which was apparently large, and there's some fear that the mine could be of use for infiltration.  Chances are that the mine is mined.

January 15, 2022

Russo Ukrainian War

By Photo: Cpl Russ Nolan RLC/MOD, OGL v1.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=26907562

The UK will be supplying Challenger 2 tanks, a fully modern western, third generation, main battle tank, to Ukraine.

The initial number is only 12, which isn't enough to do anything with, but presumably it will end up being more than that.  Ukraine has been asking for modern Western tanks for months.

Russian forces staged in Belarus rocketed targets in Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast and then later launched sea-based Kalibr, and Kh-59 guided air missiles.

I wasn't aware that Belarus was allowing its territory to be used in this fashion.  This presents an added complication for Ukraine as while it now hits Russian targets in Russia, Russia is also using Belorussian territory for missile attacks.

January 16, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

It's now widely expected that Russia will be launching a new large-scale conventional offensive.

This means that a type of race is now on, with the obvious one being can the Western nations sufficiently arm and train Ukraine to stave off a new Russian offensive which it must be presumed will be very large and much less inept than the original one, which Russia launched believing that its efforts couldn't fail.

Russia can't afford to lose the next one.

The second race, maybe, might be for Ukraine to launch an offensive first.  If Russia has to commit to the defense before it can launch an offensive, it might hold that offensive off and cause an already damaged Putin administration more trouble.

January 19, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Germany, having moved up, again, to the brink of allowing nations with surplus Leopard 2 tanks, or making use of its own surplus, has pulled back again.

Time and time again, Germany has indicated that it was considering or about to provide or allow Leopard 2s to go to Ukraine, only to back out.  This seems to have occurred again, as it's now indicating that it will provide Leopard 2s if the US provides M1 Abrams tanks.

There is a certain logic to this, but it's also done knowing that the US is unlikely to provide Abrams tanks to Ukraine.  Symbolically, it's probably a bridge too far for the US as the Abrams is generally regarded as the most advanced tank in the world and one that was designed to take on and defeat Soviet armor in a largescale war.  In other worlds, it comes a bit too close to the US nearly being in the war itself, and Germany knows this.

Having said this, Leopard 2s were built for the same purpose.  And so were Challenger 2s, the latter of which is probably every bit as good as the Abrams.

The Leopard 2 isn't, which presents its own problems.  There's been some speculation that Germany hasn't provided the tank as it will show that Germany's think skinned armor thesis which influenced German tank designs post World War Two was wrong, because it was wrong.  In combat with Russian tanks it may well prove to be inferior, in least in terms of crew protection.  

This does bring up, again, the M60s (and maybe M48s).  The last variant of the M60 was a very modern tanks and it would be relatively easy to upgrade the massive number of M60s and supply them to Ukraine.  A counter proposal could be made to supply something like 500 M60s if the Germans spring the Leopard 2s.  Of course, this isn't what Ukraine is seeking, as they want the most modern variant of main battle tank.

January 21, 2023

Russia has installed air defense systems in Moscow.

Ukraine is not going to attack Moscow, so the question is whether this is a species of extreme cautiousness, paranoia, or theater.

January 23, 2023

Leopard 2 tank.

Under a tremendous amount of pressure, Germany has indicated it will not preclude Poland from shipping Leopard 2s to Ukraine.

Over the weekend a member of Congress urged the U.S. to supply M1 Abrams to Ukraine, stating that modern armor would be necessary to take on an anticipated Russian offensive this winter. This may indicate a move towards supplying Ukraine with M1s.

M1 Abrams.

January 24, 2023

From the New York Times:

The U.S. plans to send M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine, officials said, a big step in arming Kyiv in its efforts to seize back territory from Russia.

Tuesday, January 24, 2023 5:40 PM ET

The White House is expected to announce a decision as early as Wednesday, said the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity. One official said the number of Abrams tanks could be between 30 and 50.

Janaury 25, 2023

The dam appears to have broken and now Germany will be sending Leopard 2s to Ukraine.  Poland will follow.

Western analysits attribute the slow provision of heavy weapons to Ukraine as a major factor that is keeping Ukraine from defeating Russia.

We seem to have reached a new point in the war.  Now, that has changed.

January 26, 2023

Thirty one.

That's the number of M1 Abrams tanks that the U.S. promised to Ukraine.  Only around 14 Leopard 2s are going to be sent by Germany, and 80 by other European allies.  The British are sending 12 Challengers.

Ukraine asked for 300 modern main battle tanks.

A combined total of a little under 140 won't cut it, particularly of mixed models, and the M1s won't be delivered for months, most likely well after the anticipated Russian spring offensive.

Taiwan is equipped with M60A3 tanks and is opting to upgrade them.

We have thousands of idle M60s that can upgraded. We could likely provide over 300 M60A3s within weeks, some within days.

Send the M60s.

There are reports that the Wagner Group may take punitive action against its own members for retreating in battle, with at least one report that they castrated a soldier for doing so.

January 26, 2023, cont

The US indicated today that it does not have the spare inventory to send M1A2 from its own stocks, so apparently the Ukrainian ones will be new General Dynamics production.

Ukraine may not have the time to spare.

We should; 1) take 50 out of our own stocks. We're not going to be going to war, no matter how cautious we may feel we need to be, and 2) we should send 500 M60s.

The M60s could be there soon.

January 27, 2023

Somalia

Al Shabaab achieved a major tactical victory in central Somalia, taking a base used by US-trained special forces. 

Also in the country, U.S. Special forces killed ISIL leader Bilal al Sudani in a raid.

January 27, 2023, cont.

Russo Ukrainian War

In a statement that can only charitably be referred to as bizarre, former President Donald Trump tweeted, or whatever it is called on "Truth Social" that if he were President he could end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours. A Russian spokesman, taking the position that he could "instruct" Kyiv on what to do, endorsed the statement. 

I think it can be safely assumed that Trump would not have intervened to save Ukraine, and would not now.  He clearly cannot "instruct" it to do anything.

Statements like this should cause people to wonder about the level of narcissism the former President displays and cannot help, at least in some quarters, cause speculation on why Trump is so in love with Putin.  It is, truly, bizarre.

January 29, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

The Russians reported took 5,000 combat deaths last week.

At this point, it appears that they're relieving the Wagner Group, which has been engaged at Bakhmut in high casualty attacks.  Russian airborne is apparently replacing the mercenary troops.

Ukrainian sources report that 300 Wagner Group wounded were taken to a hospital in Yuvlineyvy but they were refused treatment due to having AIDs, syphilis, tuberculosis and pneumonia.    Of the 50,000 Wagner recruits from prisons, only 10,000 now remain, the rest having been killed, wounded or deserted.  Just a couple of weeks ago there was serious speculation that the Wagner Group would supplant the Army in some fashion, much like the SA tried to do with the pre-war German Heer, but now it appears it's basically being pulled from combat, although it may have served its purpose by being a sponge for Ukrainian munitions.

The Russians have been making small gains.

Ukraine has asked for long range missiles, which would clearly express an intent to hit targets inside of Russia.

North Korea declared the US promise to deliver M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine an "unethical crime", which begs the question of what an "ethical" crime would be.

January 29, cont:

Iran

Iranian drone manufacturing facilities were hit. . . by drones.

Nobody has taken responsibility but it seems certain they were Israel carried out the attacks.  Iran is claiming there was no damage which means there was damage.

Ukraine did a little gloating over this, which is merited.

January 31, 2023

Pakistan

A sucide bombing killeed 59 people, mostly police officers, in Peshwar.  It was not immediately apparent who was responsible. The Taliban claimed responsiblity at first, and then denied responsibility.

Israel-Iran

Israel hit Iranian backed militia targets in Syria on January 29 and 30 in air strikes.

Last Prior Edition:

Wars and Rumors of War, 2022. The Russo Ukrainian War Edition, Part Nine. Rout