June 6, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Some sort of Ukrainian offensive has started in southern Ukraine and in the Donetsk region.
The Russians have breached the Kakhovka dam within the territory they hold, probably as part of an effort to flood the battlefield.
June 7, 2023
Apparently, the breaching of the subject dam flooded Russian positions and carried some Russian soldiers off to their deaths.
June 8, 2023
The Ukrainian spring offensive has begun.
June 12, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Ukraine has been tight-lipped with information regarding the offensive, but it is now known that there have been advances in the south-eastern portion of the country and some villages have been liberated from Russian control, including Blagodatnoye and Neskuchnoe, They also continue to advance around Bakhmut.
Sudanese Civil War
Fighting resumed in the capital yesterday.
June 13, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Ukrainian partisans destroyed a train carrying diesel fuel near Mariupol.
The reservoir drained by Russian action has drained to the point where bodies of Soviet and German soldiers from the Second World War have been revealed.
June 13, 2023, cont.
Russian source are reporting that the Ukrainian Army is in Tokmak which, if true, puts them 63 km, or 40 miles, from Mariupol. 40 miles is a long way in military terms, but it that is true, and it may very well not be, Ukrainians are well on their way towards isolating Crimea.
Major General Sergei Goryachev, Chief of Staff of the 35th Combined Arms Army, was killed yesterday by a Ukrainian missile strike in the Zaporizhzhia region.
June 20, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
An odd comment from Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov:
Indeed, Ukraine was heavily militarized at the time of the beginning of the Special Military Operation. And, as Putin said yesterday, one of the tasks was to demilitarize Ukraine. In fact, this task is largely completed. Ukraine is using less and less of its weapons. And more and more it uses the weapons systems that Western countries supply it with.
This could be an example of random verbal slip ups, but it could also signal an intent to declare victory and go home in some fashion.
Having said that, there's now real reason to worry that the Ukrainian Spring Offensive will be a failure. The Ukrainian Army is advancing, but quite slowly. Both sides are taking heavy casualties.
June 23, 2023
Russia Civil War?
This is odd:
Wagner Chief Says Russian Military Launched Strikes on His Camps, Vows Retaliation
Perhaps the age-old lesson about why using mercenaries is a bad idea is being played out here.
Or perhaps the age-old lesson about not betraying your mercenaries is being played out here.
June 23, 2023, cont
Russian media is now terming the Wagner group's actions a "revolt" by its leader, and are urging Wagner troops to arrest him.
This is either the end of Wagner or the beginning of a really messy episode in Russia.
June 23, cont
Wagner forces and Russian Army forces are now fighting in Rostov On Don.
June 24, 2023
Russian Civil War
Putin made a broadcast appeal for Wagner to end its rebellion, without naming them by name. Translated by the Washington Post, which published the short address in full, it concludes:
As the President of Russia and Supreme Commander-in-Chief, as a citizen of Russia, I will do everything to defend the country, to protect the constitutional order, the lives, security and freedom of citizens.
The one who organized and prepared the military rebellion, who raised arms against their comrades-in-arms, betrayed Russia. And they will answer for it. And I urge those who are being dragged into this crime not to make a fatal and tragic, unparalleled mistake, to make the only right choice — to stop participating in criminal acts.
I believe that we will preserve and defend what is dear and sacred to us, and together with our Motherland we will overcome any trials, we will become even stronger.
This leaves Prigozhin now way out.
Wagner forces have been seen convoying north, as far north, as Kolodezsky, Lipetsk Oblast. That's halfway between Rostov and Moscow.
June 24, cont:
Moscow's mayor has declared Monday a day off and urged workers not to report to work Monday.
Putin's airplane departed Moscow, but it is not known who is on board it.
One report, goodness knows how reliable it is or isn't, has the police in Moscow pondering which side to land on, as they don't have the resources to oppose an actual military force.
Wow. Shades of Russia 1917, or is it Germany, July 44?
June 25, 2023
Wagner Uprising/Russo Ukrainian War
This bizarre drama seems to have played out.
Wagner mercenary chieftain Yevgeny Prigozhin, whose forces only yesterday were advancing unimpeded on Moscow, and who shot down seven Russian aircraft along the way, and who seemed set to depose Putin, struck a deal with the modern Czar in which his forces return, more or less to barracks, and he takes up exile in Belarus.
He better sleep with one eye open.
There's been utterly nothing like this whatsoever in modern times.
His forces that remain under arms will enter the Russian Army.
The U.S. was apparently aware of the intended uprising before it occurred and had informed Kyiv. While it demonstrated that there'rs nothing in the Russian rear, Ukraine does not appear to have been able to take advantage of the situation.
June 26, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
June 27, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Reports hold that the Ukrainian Army has crossed the Antonovsky Bridge over the Dnieper in Kherson Oblast.
Some Wagner troops are being redeployed to Belarus. This is not insignificant and may signal how Putin put down the rebellion. Wagner troops may now be committed to that region, in preparation for offensive actions from the north. It's worth remembering that Prigozhin complained earlier on that Putin wasn't being aggressive enough in Ukraine, and Putin has been trying to get Belarus to commit to the war.
ISW, on this, reports:
ISW's take on this is definitely different, noting that this would be a refuge for Prigozhin loyalist. For that matter, Wagner, which has operations in Africa, needs to retain a base, as does Prigozhin.
Prigozhin may be facing loyalty problems himself now, as troops that followed him are now denouncing him, having been led into a rebellion, and now feeling abandoned.
Putin, having avoided ending up a target on the Kremlin's wall, is talking tough about Wagner leadership and loyalist again, once again branding them traitors. It's almost certain that senior Wagner leadership will end up dead, as will Prigozhin, if our first speculation isn't correct. Even if it is, they may ultimately end up dead anyway. Prigozhin is now playing up his loyalty to Putin. ISW's view on the situation is that Putin's rupture with Prigozhin is complete.
June 28, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War/Russian Civil War
Leaked US intelligence holds that senior Russian military figures were aware of Prigozhin's coup attempt and may have supported it in varying degrees.
This is an indication that this story really hasn't played out yet. If that's correct, those figures need to decide if they'll accept the fate of those who support failed coups, or if the effort to replace Putin is still on. If significant numbers of senior Russian officers have cast their lot with Prigozhin, they could likely still pull off a change in government.
ISW reports that Belarus brokered the settlement with the goal of taking in Wagner troops as a hedge against Russia. The thesis that Belarus' seeks to avoid through pressure what Ukraine is resisting through military force, inclusion into Russia.
Ukrainian airborne has retaken some territory which was taken by the Russians in 2014.
June 29, 2023
Russian Civil War
General Sergey Surovikin, a senior Russian general, was arrested yesterday for his role in supporting the attempted coup.
June 30, 2023
Chinese Balloon
The US has concluded that the balloon did not gather intelligence over its flight over the U.S.
Frankly, I'm skeptical as to that conclusion, but that's the conclusion.
Russian Civil War/Russo Ukrainian War
A second Russian general,Valery Gerasimov, has disappeared, and the Russians are questioning pilots who refused to fire on Wagner forces.
Newsweek ran an op ed by author Rebekah Koffler, president of Doctrine & Strategy Consulting, and a former DIA intelligence officer, which asserts that the coup was a false flag operation designed to bolster Putin's status in the face of an upcoming election and to reposition Wagner troops in Belarus.
This now seems unlikely. One of the arguments she makes in favor of her argument is that the entire episode was hopelessly weird, which is quite true, but much of Russian history is likewise hopelessly weird. What other nation would see its army stand by while its leader committed mass murder of its leadership?
Ukrainian troops are praising the qualities of the Bradley Armored Fighting Vehicle.
Ukraine claims to have seized the "strategic initiative" near Bakhmut.
Syrian Civil War
The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) and Russian forces conducted airstrikes on rebel positions in Idlib Province between June 25 and 27. The head of the Russian Reconciliation Center, which is affiliated with the Russian Ministry of Defense in Syria, said the strikes responded to militants in Idlib Province that launched drone strikes into Syrian regime-held territory on June 22 and 23
There is further speculation that Iran may begin to participate in this mater on the Syrian government side.
If so, Russia is really playing with fire. Iranian long term goals don't match Russia's at all.
It's also an interesting example of how a really second rate army can still be a major force where the other forces are third rate.\
July 2, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War/Russian Civil War
Belorussian rebels report the construction of camps at a former military facility 140 miles from the Ukrainian border, which would appear to be for Wagner troops.
July 3, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Ukraine reports taking back 14.4 Square miles this past week. Slow-going is partially due to heavy Russian use of mines.
Israel/Palestinians
Israeli forces launched a large military operation in the occupied West Bank city of Jenin.
July 5, 2023
Israel/Palestinians
Israel pulled its forces back out of Jenin, but warned such raids could happen again in the future.
July 6, 2023
Russian Civil War
Wagner's troops have remained in their camps in Russia and its leader was sited in St. Petersburg, all of which is quite odd under the circumstances.
US v. ISIL
Russian jets harassed U.S. drones targeting ISIL.
July 7, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
The US is sending cluster munitions to Ukraine.
July 7, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
The Ukrainians have made significant tactical gains around Bakhmut.
The Russians have deployed Russian almost the entire Russian Eastern Grouping of Forces to southern Ukraine. This would mean that either they anticapte a massive Ukrainian effort shortly, or they have sustained so many losses that they are now in the effective position of committing all of their reserves.
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