You will hear of wars and rumors of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed. Such things must happen, but the end is still to come. Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom.
Matthew, Chapter 24.
And so we're on to a new year.
Armenian woman kneeling beside her dead child in Syria during the Battle of Aleppo.
Heading into 2025, the big news remains the Russo Ukrainian War. Other wars are going on, of course, including the Middle Eastern War, as we have termed it here, in which the United States is an occasional belligerent.
As the world is just a few days away from the inauguration of Donald Trump as president, there's good reason to be concerned about the impact this will have on various conflicts, the Russo Ukrainian War in particular. Trump has long been a Putin fan boy for reasons which remain very difficult to discern. Over the past three years Russia has proven that it is, at best, a weak regional power. Putin is bankrupting his country and his armed forces have been reduced to such a level that he's imported North Korean forces to aid his, with North Korean being a Stalinist Clown College.
Ukraine has managed to hold on against its much larger neighbor in no small part due to largescale Western support. Europe has actually, at this point, contributed more to Ukraine than the US has. US leadership and support has been critical, but its often missed that the US has used the war to clear out obsolescent stocks of arms and, in fact, could do much more of this if it wished to, and should. Trump, however, has been generally hostile to Ukraine and lovey dovey to Putin. His relationship to the Russian head of state is so peculiar that it has long raised questions about what's behind it.
Trump, of course, who didn't serve in his nation's war when he was of military age, claims to abhor war and he may in fact have that view. He generally doesn't like military men that much, and he's sufficiently wealth and self centered that he frankly might just not grasp that there are people who are willing to fight and die for their country. Be that as it may, however, like many of the populist camp, quite a few of whom are strongly influenced by a certain strain of Evangelical Protestantism, he has an "Israel can do no wrong" view. There is no reason to believe, therefore, that the incoming administration won't essentially give Israel a free hand in whatever it wants to do in the ongoing struggle in the Middle East.
The US, it might be noted, retains a small number of forces in Iraq and Syria. Trump made sounds about pulling US forces out of Syria when he was first elected, but he didn't. He's made some statements about the US having no role in Syria now, but the US forces in Syria aren't sufficient to impact the outcome of the war there, and are there only to address ISIL in the region. There is, therefore, no real way to know how the change in administrations will impact that.
In terms of prognostications, its notable that Russia's 2024 effort in Ukraine have produced no real results. That Putin isn't trying to commit larger forces to the region and is instead allowing his forces to be bled is telling. He probably can't do more. Ukraine, however, remains unable to push Russia out. The situation therefore depends nearly entirely on what the US and Western Europe does.
The commitment of North Korean troops was always boing to be a failure and will be. North Korea is much more of a paper tiger than many suppose. Mostly, a lot of North Koreans will get killed. Those who return to North Korea will have been exposed to a partially westernized Russia. Stalinist have always feared that as it means there's now a population that knows things could be much better somewhere else. Moreover, those returning will be elite troops. They'll be much like French Algerian troops who returned home to Algeria after fighting in Indochina, and that won't be good for the Communist Hermit Kingdom.
Right now, in regard to Syria, there's really no real reason to hope that the country breaks into a western democracy. At least some period of internecine strife appears likely, absent a massive intervention by Turkey, which we really do not want.
January 1, 2025
Russo Ukrainian War
In a sort of odd even in the ongoing war, a deal between Ukraine and Russia which allowed for the transport of natural gas across Ukraine into Europe, in spite of the war, expired this past week and, as a result, Ukraine shut the pipelines down, which makes perfect sense.
This creates, for the most part a less dire situation than a person might suppose. Europe receives 5% of its natural gas from Russia. Another pipeline that does not go through Ukraine does exist.
Unless you are in Moldova.
This is the only way the breakaway Transnistria region gets gas, and the impact there has been immediate.
January 6, 2025
Russo Ukrainian War
Ukraine has launched a new offensive in Russia's Kursk Oblast.
Last edition:
In this instance, of course, the last edition was, from last year.
January 8, 2025
United States v. Panama
United States v. Denmark
Today's headline in the Tribune:
TRUMP TALKS USING MILITARY IN TAKEOVER
Trump appears to be demented, and the US acting illegally in a war against Panama and NATO Ally Denmark should be taken seriously.
January 13, 2025
Russo Ukrainian War
Donald Trump's special envoy for the Russo Ukrainian War, who of course right now is simply a private citizen and may always be, has declared that Trump will end the war within 100 days of taking office.
Originally it was within 24 hours of taking office.
After that, it was within 24 hours of being elected.
Of course, a person would have had to have drank the KoolAide to believe either of the first two, and not to heavily doubt the third.
A really interesting look at North Korean troops in the war:
January 15, 2025
Middle Eastern War/Hamas Israeli War
Hamas and Israel appear to have agreed to a complicated cease fire.
January 20, 2025
Middle Eastern War/Hamas Israeli War
The first prisoners and hostages were released yesterday.
No more wars?
That was the promise of the Trump campaign, along with the price of groceries going down (they won't) and the war in Ukraine ending within 24 hours after his nomination to the GOP ticket (that didn't happen).
No more wars isn't shaping up to be true either.
Two huge stories broke yesterday on Face the Nation, but with all going on, they aren't getting that much attention.
They are, in the style of this thread:
Israel v. Iran?
Lindsey Graham was on Face the Nation yesterday begging for Israel to hit Iranian nuclear sites. He will be "engaging" Trump on this topic.
United States v. Mexican Cartels?
Incoming National Security Advisor strongly hinted that the US will be listing two Mexican drug cartels as terrorist organizations and implied that the US will be intervening in Mexico to take them on.
I'm frankly amazed this isn't a banner headline.
If this goes in the direction that it seems to be, one of the purposes of having Graham and Waltz on the day before the inauguration on the best of the three weekend news shows is to get the information out, in a sort of early and curve ball fashion, that we're headed into to major military actions. We apparently are going to urge the Netanyahu administration to basically finish the Iranian regime off, or at least decapitate its nuclear potential, and we're going into Mexico with special forces and aircraft, the way we've fought in Syrian and Iraq over the past two decades, but in a much more substantial fashion.
Whatever a person thinks of these proposals, Iran is not going to go gently into the night, although you could argue, as some have, that its down on its knees and needs to be wiped out.
Mexico, no matter what the incoming Trump administration might think, does not want troops on its soil again for the third time. It would likely fight back against an intervention, just like it did in 1916, even when the intervention is against an internal enemy, just like it was in 1916.
At any rate, at least right now, it would appear that the incoming administration isn't really against wars. It's just in favor of different, and bigger, wars.
January 24, 2025
Russo Ukrainian War.
North Korea is sending more cannon fodder to the war.
This won't serve to turn the tide in favor of Russia, and if it continues, it will destroy the core of the North Korean army and leave an embittered veterans class. The real threat to Ukraine now is Donald Trump. So far Trump seems to have assumed that his pal Putin would simply end the war because Donald was elected, or perhaps due to something in the relationship between them (Trump is undeniably a Russian asset, the question is what kind of Russian asset he is, bought and paid for or by personal inclination). Trump's present plans in regard to his first broken campaign promise is to cause the Saudi's to lower the price of oil as that will make Russia's too expensive to buy, apparently.
January 26, 2025
Middle Eastern War
The Trump Interregnum is resuming shipments of 2,000 lbs bombs to Israel on the basis that "they bought and paid for them", reflecting his sad view of the world.
Whether a person supports Israel or not, already leopards are eating the faces of left wing pro Palestinian voters and Arab American voters in the US who didn't support Harris. Trump will make Biden look like a peace protester as far as Israel is concerned, and the far right is packed with the element that feels Israel can do no wrong.
Trump also is proposing to Jordan and Egypt that they take in the Gazans so that Gaza can be "cleaned out". While there is in fact some merit to the Gazans being relocated (we suggested this earlier), both countries have rejected the idea completely and Trump's phone call diplomacy is working no more successfully here than it did with his call to Denmark's leader about his bizarre demand for Greenland.
January 28, 2025
Congo
The Congo River Alliance, backed by Rwanda, entered the country and took a major city this week. Made up of 17 parties, the principal member is the U.S. and UN sanctioned March 23 Movement. I have no idea what they are seeking.
January 31, 2025
Congo
M23 rebels seized control of Goma and are advancing toward the South Kivu provincial capital of Bukavu.
February 1, 2025
US v. ISIL
|
Secretary of Defense
Pete Hegseth Statement on U.S. Africa Command Strikes in Somalia
Feb. 1, 2025
Secretary
of Defense Pete Hegseth statement on U.S. Africa Command strikes in Somalia
At
President Trump's direction and in coordination with the Federal Government
of Somalia, I authorized U.S. Africa Command to conduct coordinated
airstrikes today targeting ISIS-Somalia operatives in the Golis mountains.
Our
initial assessment is that multiple operatives were killed in the airstrikes
and no civilians were harmed. This action further degrades ISIS's
ability to plot and conduct terrorist attacks threatening U.S. citizens, our
partners, and innocent civilians and sends a clear signal that the United
States always stands ready to find and eliminate terrorists who threaten the
United States and our allies, even as we conduct robust border-protection and
many other operations under President Trump's leadership.
|
February 6, 2025
Arab Americans For Trump has changed its name to Arab Americans for Peace following Trump's proposal to remove the Palestinians from Gaza and turn it into an American territory.
Basically, they realized they'd been dumbasses, which was plenty obvious to start with.
Israel has of course leaped right on this lunatic suggestion and instructed its military to be prepared to allow Palestinians to leave, although freedom to leave a region is generally regarded as a human right.
It should be worth noting right now that a US presence of this type guarantees death will come to Americans involved in it, and we will now be a direct combatant in a nearly 80 year old guerilla war in the region.
I'd also note that a lot of far right evangelicals have a very peculiar view of Israel, and we now have a Secretary of Defense who is all tatted up with appropriated Crusader symbols, although a Crusader coming back form the dead would regard him as a heretic.
Oh well, what could go wrong? Leopards won't eat our faces.
February 17, 2025
Russo Ukrainian War, Taiwan and World War III.
Donald Trump, who promised to end the Russo Ukrainian War upon being nominated for the Republican ticket, and also within 24 hours of being elected, is belatedly trying to make good upon his promise. . . but on what terms.
This past week the United States has basically told its European allies that its abandoning Europe and at the same time is starting unilateral talks with Russia in Saudi Arabia.
Saudi Arabia?
Hmm. . . .
The Saudi's likely regard Trump as an epic clown, and have no real interest in the war ending, so who knows what's up with that.
Anyhow there are widespread fears, and legitimate ones, that Trump is just out to betray Ukraine Chamberlin style. Trump's life reduces simply to money for Trump, and he's a man with no real values, so he likely genuinely can't grasp what the war is about. At the same time he's trying to extract an economic deal from Ukraine, as that's all he really understands.
Not very well grasped in this is that the US is rocketing towards a world war, with Trump being too dense to grasp it. We've been harrassing Taiwan in recent weeks while we also removed a statement from our embassy website that we don't support its independence from China. Now, we apparently don't object to that. I'm fine with that, but what Trump doesn't grasp is the following:
We'll be in a type of world war.
And I don't mean figuratively, I mean actually.
Somewhere around here is a post that predicted, at the time it was posted, that we would be at war with China within, I thought, about five years. We aren't at that mark yet.
China wants Taiwan and have been openly planning to invade it for years. The Biden Administration was fairly openly planning on the defense of Taiwan. Japan and the Philippines expect it to occur as well.
Trump is now punishing Taiwan economically, and China is going to move to get it. The Chinese are not dumb, and my guess is that they don't figure that Trump will be around long either.
Trump's a demented doofus who is destroying the American government. This would be the ideal time for China to act. And if they do, and I think they will, North Korea will attack South Korea shortly thereafter. Whatever has gone on or is occuring in Eastern Europe, Russia will launch a massive fully mobilized campaign against Ukraine, and maybe the Balkans and Poland. You can easily see a scenario where China attacks Taiwan and North Korea attacks South Korea later that same week, and Russia has a major offensive occuring within a month.
Indeed, if I led China, and the morals of the Chinese leadership, I'd do it. The balance of risks is on their sides, and will even be more on their sides after Elon Musk takes the meat cleaver to the military.
What will Trump do? Probably babble and vacillate. He'll yap for about a week on the basis that world leaders listen to him. After a week, the situation will be grave for Taiwan and we'll be in an all out war in South Korea. We'll act then, but we'll have lost a week which means when we do, we're going to take a naval pounding.
Trump, it might be noted, didn't answer his country's call when it came in Vietnam. Musk managed not to be conscripted into the South African Army by migrating to Canada.
I think our chances of winning such a war are very slim.
A war like that isn't avoidable and we'll get in it. Probably with Vance as head of state as Trump's escorted out the door babbling.
The reason Trump can't grasp this that Trump can't grasp that not everything is for sale. Indeed, most things aren't for sale, and in much of the world very little is for sale. For China, bypassing taking Taiwan does not have a dollar value. For Taiwan, reuniting with China doesn't have a dollar value.
We're headed towards World War Three.
February 20, 2025
Russo Ukrainian War
There were sharp words between President Zilensky and Donald Trump yesterday in which Zilensky said the quite part out loud saying the would be was "living in a disinformation space". Trump ironically hit back by calling Zalinsky a "dictator", a real irony for a person illegitimately gathering autocratic authority to himself.
Trump's efforts to end the Russo Ukrainian War might actually have begun to sew the seeds of his irrelevancy. Europe is united against Trump and Russia, as Trump tries to revive an late 19th Century view of foreign policy. And Trump's legendary negotiating skills, which are really fairly thuggish, don't appear to be working outside of the world of real estate, with Trump's worldview so limited that he can't really grasp that most people don't dream of being Florida golf course owners. The question in increasingly becoming to what extent will his interregnum damage the United States internally and globally before an actual President returns to office.
March 1, 2025
Russo Ukrainian War
Yesterday made it clear that Donald Trump is really a spoiled, and not very smart, child.
Raised with a sliver spoon up his ass, and a bully by heart, with a career of well funded bulliness, he's come to believe he's a genius, as have his largely ignorant supporters, the latter of whom are seemingly unaware that a person born into Trump's wealth could have the IQ of a houseplant and still make money.
Trump, busy trying to make a deal to extort Ukraine's mineral wealth in exchange for . . . well it's not clear, found that leaders of country's don't respect spoiled children. This lead to a short of shouting match between Trump and President Zelenskiy in the White House.
In the past month Europe as a whole has moved away from the United States, as has Canada, and are well on their way to forming a new second power block as the United States fades into being a regional petulant power. Tariffs next week will finish it. Ukraine will likely turn to Europe, and the US, lead by a spoiled not very smart brat, will turn into an economically hobbled regional bully in which somewhat over half the population dislikes to outright detests its leadership
Sic Transit Gloria Mundi.
Last edition:
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