Showing posts with label Russia. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Russia. Show all posts

Friday, January 31, 2025

Wars and Rumors of War, 2025. Part 1. Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom.

You will hear of wars and rumors of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed. Such things must happen, but the end is still to come. Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom.

Matthew, Chapter 24.

And so we're on to a new year.

Armenian woman kneeling beside her dead child in Syria during the Battle of Aleppo.

Heading into 2025, the big news remains the Russo Ukrainian War.  Other wars are going on, of course, including the Middle Eastern War, as we have termed it here, in which the United States is an occasional belligerent.

As the world is just a few days away from the inauguration of Donald Trump as president, there's good reason to be concerned about the impact this will have on various conflicts, the Russo Ukrainian War in particular.  Trump has long been a Putin fan boy for reasons which remain very difficult to discern.  Over the past three years Russia has proven that it is, at best, a weak regional power.  Putin is bankrupting his country and his armed forces have been reduced to such a level that he's imported North Korean forces to aid his, with North Korean being a Stalinist Clown College.

Ukraine has managed to hold on against its much larger neighbor in no small part due to largescale Western support.  Europe has actually, at this point, contributed more to Ukraine than the US has.  US leadership and support has been critical, but its often missed that the US has used the war to clear out obsolescent stocks of arms and, in fact, could do much more of this if it wished to, and should.  Trump, however, has been generally hostile to Ukraine and lovey dovey to Putin.  His relationship to the Russian head of state is so peculiar that it has long raised questions about what's behind it.

Trump, of course, who didn't serve in his nation's war when he was of military age, claims to abhor war and he may in fact have that view.  He generally doesn't like military men that much, and he's sufficiently wealth and self centered that he frankly might just not grasp that there are people who are willing to fight and die for their country.  Be that as it may, however, like many of the populist camp, quite a few of whom are strongly influenced by a certain strain of Evangelical Protestantism, he has an "Israel can do no wrong" view.  There is no reason to believe, therefore, that the incoming administration won't essentially give Israel a free hand in whatever it wants to do in the ongoing struggle in the Middle East.

The US, it might be noted, retains a small number of forces in Iraq and Syria.  Trump made sounds about pulling US forces out of Syria when he was first elected, but he didn't.  He's made some statements about the US having no role in Syria now, but the US forces in Syria aren't sufficient to impact the outcome of the war there, and are there only to address ISIL in the region.  There is, therefore, no real way to know how the change in administrations will impact that.

In terms of prognostications, its notable that Russia's 2024 effort in Ukraine have produced no real results.  That Putin isn't trying to commit larger forces to the region and is instead allowing his forces to be bled is telling.  He probably can't do more.  Ukraine, however, remains unable to push Russia out. The situation therefore depends nearly entirely on what the US and Western Europe does.

The commitment of North Korean troops was always boing to be a failure and will be.  North Korea is much more of a paper tiger than many suppose.  Mostly, a lot of North Koreans will get killed. Those who return to North Korea will have been exposed to a partially westernized Russia. Stalinist have always feared that as it means there's now a population that knows things could be much better somewhere else.  Moreover, those returning will be elite troops.  They'll be much like French Algerian troops who returned home to Algeria after fighting in Indochina, and that won't be good for the Communist Hermit Kingdom.

Right now, in regard to Syria, there's really no real reason to hope that the country breaks into a western democracy.  At least some period of internecine strife appears likely, absent a massive intervention by Turkey, which we really do not want.

January 1, 2025

Russo Ukrainian War

In a sort of odd even in the ongoing war, a deal between Ukraine and Russia which allowed for the transport of natural gas across Ukraine into Europe, in spite of the war, expired this past week and, as a result, Ukraine shut the pipelines down, which makes perfect sense.

This creates, for the most part a less dire situation than a person might suppose.  Europe receives 5% of its natural gas from Russia.  Another pipeline that does not go through Ukraine does exist.

Unless you are in Moldova.

This is the only way the breakaway Transnistria region gets gas, and the impact there has been immediate.

January 6, 2025

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukraine has launched a new offensive in Russia's Kursk Oblast.

Last edition:

In this instance, of course, the last edition was, from last year.

January 8, 2025

United States v. Panama

United States v. Denmark

Today's headline in the Tribune:

TRUMP TALKS USING MILITARY IN TAKEOVER

Trump appears to be demented, and the US acting illegally in a war against Panama and NATO Ally Denmark should be taken seriously.

January 13, 2025

Russo Ukrainian War

Donald Trump's special envoy for the Russo Ukrainian War, who of course right now is simply a private citizen and may always be, has declared that Trump will end the war within 100 days of taking office.

Originally it was within 24 hours of taking office.

After that, it was within 24 hours of being elected.

Of course, a person would have had to have drank the KoolAide to believe either of the first two, and not to heavily doubt the third.

A really interesting look at North Korean troops in the war:

Troops Captured by Ukraine Provide Rare Glimpse Into North Korea’s Military

January 15, 2025

Middle Eastern War/Hamas Israeli War

Hamas and Israel appear to have agreed to a complicated cease fire.

January 20, 2025

Middle Eastern War/Hamas Israeli War

The first prisoners and hostages were released yesterday.

No more wars?

That was the promise of the Trump campaign, along with the price of groceries going down (they won't) and the war in Ukraine ending within 24 hours after his nomination to the GOP ticket (that didn't happen).

No more wars isn't shaping up to be true either.  

Two huge stories broke yesterday on Face the Nation, but with all going on, they aren't getting that much attention.

They are, in the style of this thread:

Israel v. Iran?

Lindsey Graham was on Face the Nation yesterday begging for Israel to hit Iranian nuclear sites.  He will be "engaging" Trump on this topic.

United States v. Mexican Cartels?

Incoming National Security Advisor strongly hinted that the US will be listing two Mexican drug cartels as terrorist organizations and implied that the US will be intervening in Mexico to take them on.

I'm frankly amazed this isn't a banner headline.  

If this goes in the direction that it seems to be, one of the purposes of having Graham and Waltz on the day before the inauguration on the best of the three weekend news shows is to get the information out, in a sort of early and curve ball fashion, that we're headed into to major military actions.  We apparently are going to urge the Netanyahu administration to basically finish the Iranian regime off, or at least decapitate its nuclear potential, and we're going into Mexico with special forces and aircraft, the way we've fought in Syrian and Iraq over the past two decades, but in a much more substantial fashion.

Whatever a person thinks of these proposals, Iran is not going to go gently into the night, although you could argue, as some have, that its down on its knees and needs to be wiped out.  

Mexico, no matter what the incoming Trump administration might think, does not want troops on its soil again for the third time.  It would likely fight back against an intervention, just like it did in 1916, even when the intervention is against an internal enemy, just like it was in 1916.

At any rate, at least right now, it would appear that the incoming administration isn't really against wars.  It's just in favor of different, and bigger, wars.

January 24, 2025

Russo Ukrainian War.

North Korea is sending more cannon fodder to the war.

This won't serve to turn the tide in favor of Russia, and if it continues, it will destroy the core of the North Korean army and leave an embittered veterans class.  The real threat to Ukraine now is Donald Trump.  So far Trump seems to have assumed that his pal Putin would simply end the war because Donald was elected, or perhaps due to something in the relationship between them (Trump is undeniably a Russian asset, the question is what kind of Russian asset he is, bought and paid for or by personal inclination).  Trump's present plans in regard to his first broken campaign promise is to cause the Saudi's to lower the price of oil as that will make Russia's too expensive to buy, apparently.

January 26, 2025

Middle Eastern War

The Trump Interregnum is resuming shipments of 2,000 lbs bombs to Israel on the basis that "they bought and paid for them", reflecting his sad view of the world.

Whether a person supports Israel or not, already leopards are eating the faces of left wing pro Palestinian voters and Arab American voters in the US who didn't support Harris.  Trump will make Biden look like a peace protester as far as Israel is concerned, and the far right is packed with the element that feels Israel can do no wrong.

Trump also is proposing to Jordan and Egypt that they take in the Gazans so that Gaza can be "cleaned out".  While there is in fact some merit to the Gazans being relocated (we suggested this earlier), both countries have rejected the idea completely and Trump's phone call diplomacy is working no more successfully here than it did with his call to Denmark's leader about his bizarre demand for Greenland.

January 28, 2025

Congo

The Congo River Alliance, backed by Rwanda, entered the country and took a major city this week.  Made up of 17 parties, the principal member is the U.S. and UN sanctioned March 23 Movement.  I have no idea what they are seeking.

January 31, 2025

Congo

M23 rebels seized control of Goma and are advancing toward the South Kivu provincial capital of Bukavu. 

Last edition:

Wars and Rumors of War, 2024. Part 9. Closing out 2024.

Wednesday, January 29, 2025

Monday, January 29, 1945. Königsberg taken.

The 3d Belorussian Front attacked Königsberg, or "the Kings Mountain" in German.  The Lithuanian city is now occupied by Russia as a Baltic access enclave and called Kaliningrad.

Dresden was taken by the Red Army.

The U-763 was scuttled after being damaged in a Soviet air raid.

"Four scouts of a reconnaissance squad of the 14th Field Artillery Observation Battalion, 87th Infantry Division, 3rd U.S. Army, race through snow-covered field to avoid enemy small arms fire near Malscheid. They are headed for protection of bomb crater in the field. L to R: Tec 5 Ralph Case, Cpl. Edwin Kral, Pvt. Charles Goddard and Cpl. Richard Christensen. 29 January, 1945. Malscheid, Belgium. 87th Infantry Division."

The US 1st Army took Bullingen.

Erich von Manstein attempted to meet with Hitler, who refused to receive him.  Von Manstein was now himself part of the refugee Prussian population.

Tom Selleck was born in Detroit.

Last edition:

Sunday, January 28, 1945. Katowice and Leszno and Roza Shanina dies of her wounds.

Saturday, January 25, 2025

If Trump isn't demented, what is he?

I've consistently advocated the theory that Donald Trump has a rapidly progressing case of dementia, and I'll stand by it, even though I have no qualifications to maintain that at all.

But what if he isn't demented. How do you explain his behavior?

We'll take a look.



He's just stupid

This is a real possibility.

There's no real reason to believe that Trump is intelligent.  His success in business, which is often cited is pretty much based on his having inherited a vast amount of wealth.  As studies have shown, people who inherit a lot of money are likely remain wealthy no matter what.  It actually takes real effort for them to fall down into a lower economic class.

There's plenty of evidence that Trump is simply dumb.  He appears to say whatever floats through his head he adopts the views of people around him without thought, he asks questions of his aid that are really, well, dumb.

And really stupid people often tend to be either profoundly kind, or profoundly mean.  Trump seems to fit in to the latter category.  The nuances of morality that most people have require some degree of intelligence.  Trump simply lacks that, perhaps, so being really mean just comes naturally to him.

How then did he get to be President?

Well one thing is that people tend to assume that wealth equals smarts.  He has a lot of money, so he  must be smart, right?

Nope.

But as people tend to believe that, they tend also to fill in the blanks for the stupid person so that their support of him is rationalized.

In the past, we saw that a lot with sports.  Some sports figure may be as dumb as a box of rock, but as people want to idolize him, they make excuses for everything the person says or does.

And the entire celebrity worship thing in American culture is part of that.  People take seriously things celebrities say, as they must be smart, or they wouldn't be celebrities, right?

To add to it, the dumb int he public eye tend, normally to be protected by handlers, which Trump was up until very recently.  Now that he's not the stupidity of much of what he says and does is really coming to the forefront.

Finally, intelligence is complicated.  There are polymaths who are sort of universally intelligent, but there are also people who can excel at one thing without really being smart at anything else.  Trump clearly has skills as a salesman.  That frankly seems to be the only talent he has.

On that, I've known a few salesmen really well and often been surprised by how little interest they have in the topic of what they sell, or anything else.  An extremely successful real estate broker I know, for example surprised me when he revealed he had once been a car salesman.  They are, however, both sales.

A car salesman that I knew once surprised me in a conversation by revealing he really knew nothing about automobiles at all, and wasn't interested in them.  Cars bored him pretty clearly, but he was really good at selling them.  Selling is what interested him.

Trump may very well be like that.  He has good sales skills, which doesn't mean he's really very interested in anything he's selling.

A problem with the stupid is that they won't acknowledge it.  I don't think its true that most stupid people don't have an inkling they're dumb, but how they react to it is different.  Some simply accept it.  Others reject it.  Some seek constant affirmation that they aren't dumb.  Trump seems to fit into that category.

Aiding that, we'd note, is that he's been surrounded by people who have been telling him that he's really smart his entire life.  Everyone has witnessed something like that personally, where somebody is protected from reality until they simply don't know what it is.

There's sort of a Chauncey Gardiner element to this, we'd note.  In the film Being There, a simple minded man is mistake for a genius and becomes an advisor to the President simply because of his appearance and apparent station in life.  It's very difficult for most people to accept that somebody who has achieved apparent success isn't extremely smart.  I recall my mother, for instance, being of the view that Barrack Obama must be a genius (I'm not saying that he wasn't) because he was a lawyer.  It doesn't take smarts to become a lawyer, and one of the most successful ones I ever met with not a smart man at all.  He was just lucky.

Added to this, people, once they latch on to a figure, tend to attribute their own values to him.  We've seen this in spades with Trump. He's not a religious man, but people believe he is. There's no reason to believe he cares about most of the populist agenda, unless doing so aids him personally, but people believe he does.

The scary thing here is, unlike the first time when Trump had people to real him back in, he doesn't now.  If he's not demented, and therefore not capable of being removed, he can do pretty much any dumb thing he wants to over the next four years.

He's simply narcissistic and amoral.

Full bore narcissism and complete amorality is really rare.  Even people that most other people accuse of narcissism are capable of at least some empathy.

Likewise, complete amorality is very rare as well. Even people with loose morals usually have some.

But not always, in either case.

Indeed, it's well know that psychopaths have no empathy for other people.  And some of them, we'd note, are pretty smart.  According to some, Julius Rosenberg, the Communist spy, was an example of all we've mentioned here.  He was really smart and only cared about himself.

Trump was raised in an environment in which only success mattered and only money determined what was success. That was the Trump culture, and by all available evidence, Trump took to it and thrived in it.

Nothing other than Trump matters to Trump.  That's pretty much it. And given that, cheating on spouses, dumping associates, switching positions, lying, and screwing the entire nation are okay if it benefits his view of himself.

And that explains why he completely baffles his opponents and why his admirers admire him. Those opposed to him cannot grasp how anyone can't see through Trump.  Those who admirer him can't bring themselves to believe that he doesn't care about them whatsoever, or the country, or anything other than himself.  

Normal people don't behave like Trump to that degree. Trump's an example of what the world would really be like if John Lennon's Imagine ruled the day.

Trump sees a world in which there are no values, no religion, and nothing, other than Trump getting all he can get.

I'd note, however, that in a way, Trump, if viewed this way, is the ultimate expression of his generation, the "Me Generation".  Not everyone, or even most, in it, but the generational ethos as a whole.  What matter was "me", not much else.  Trump expresses an extreme form of that, even if he acquired it at home from a father who was definitely not part of that generation.  That also makes it easier for his acolytes to vote for him, as some of them growing up sort of viewing the world that way themselves.  Other, however, likely most, really believe that Trump cares about their cost of living, their pocketbooks, and making "American Great."

Well, as we know, Leopards won't eat my face.

He's a Goodfella

Not literally, but rather by association.

Trump developed his real estate business in New York at a time at which if you were going to get by, you were going to deal with the mob.  If he has just as big of "big brain" as he claims, then he would have picked up how mobsters work, which to some extent is on bluff and threat.

The best example is from the movie The Godfather, which was closely based on the real behavior of the New York mafia.  When they wanted Jack Wolz to do something, they put a severed horse's head, from a beloved horse, in his bed. Wolz, who wasn't harmed himself, caved to their demands.

Trump constantly makes bluffs and threats, and in fact quite often his adversaries give him what he wants.  That may be his undignified and reprehensible negotiation style.  If a person is immoral enough, and unprincipled enough, that works. . . right up until it doesn't.

There's no "art" to this deal.  It's brutish.  

And, of course, sooner or later, it doesn't work.

And when that day comes, you have no friends.

Indeed, somebody ought to give Trump the test now.  When he says "I need this" somebody ought to say, come and get it.  

Harold Hardrada asked Harold Godwinson "How much of England will you give me?".  Godwinson replied "six feet, because you are bigger than other men".   In this administration, and soon, somebody is going to tell Trump "fuck you, and the horse that you rode in on", and the whole bluff thing just goes down the tubes.  Once you can't back a bluff up, it's implodes really quickly.

And then, you have no friends at all.

Here, for example, Denmark ought to tell the US to get its Space Farce base out within a few days.  We'd have to.  And if I governed Panama, the Canal  would actually be run by the Chinese within a few days.

Whatcha Gonna About It?

Not much.

And his supporters?

They'll just all claim they were never actually for him.

That's not the only possibility.

The Kremlin Candidate

Trump is a Russian asset. The only question is, is he knowingly one, or not, and why.


It's worth noting that it would truly be a master stroke politically if you could get your man into the Oval Office, if you were one of our enemies.  And then he could go about wrecking things on your behalf, destroying alliances, the economy and even simply our place in the world.


Nobody has every proven that Trump is a knowing Russian asset.  He's definitely a Russian asset, to be sure, but it may simply be because of his view of the world and his childish admiration of strong men, and maybe his wanting to be one.  Maybe its because on the eve of his own death, he wants to be remembered for something, and the only think he can think of is to be remembered as an American Napoleon.

But his relationship with the Russians has never been explained.  Do they have something on him, and if so what?

Many have wondered about this very question, but nothing has been proven.

Still, he's successfully taken a page out of the Nazi Party's book and broad cast lies so consistently that large sections of the US population believe them.  And now he's threatening our allies, and has to be taken seriously.

If Trump is a bought and paid for Russian asset, and largely only cares for himself, he's in an ideal position to simply bring the United States down.  He can alienate our relationship with our allies, destroy our economy, leave us a wreck, and turn us against each other.

And that's the best evidence that he's a Russian asset. That's exactly what he's doing.

Soviet literacy poster.

Related threads:

Hubris and Strange Coincidence.



Monday, January 20, 2025

Tuesday, January 20, 1925. The Soviet–Japanese Basic Convention

The Soviet–Japanese Basic Convention between the Soviet Union and Japan was signed.  It provided:

JAPAN and the UNION OF SOVIET SOCIALIST REPUBLICS, desiring to promote relations of good neighbourhood and economic co-operation between them, have resolved to conclude a Convention embodying basic rules in regulation of such relations and, to that end, have appointed as their Plenipotentiaries, that is to say :

His MAJESTY THE EMPEROR OF JAPAN :

Kenkichi YOSHIZAWA, Envoy Extraordinary and Minister Plenipotentiary to the Republic of China, Jushii, a member of the First Class of the Imperial Order of the Sacred Treasure ;

THE CENTRAL EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE OF THE UNION OF SOVIET SOCIALIST REPUBLICS :

Lev Mikhailovitch KARAKHAN, Ambassador to the Republic of China ;

Who, having communicated to each other their respective full powers, found to be in good and due form, have agreed as follows :

Article I.

The High Contracting Parties agree that, with the coming into force of the present Convention, diplomatic and consular relations shall be established between them.

Article II.

The Union of Soviet Socialist Republics agrees that the Treaty of Portsmouth of September 5th, 1905, shall remain in full force.

It is agreed that the Treaties, Conventions and Agreements, other than the said Treaty of Portsmouth, which were concluded between Japan and Russia prior to November 7, 1917, shall be re-examined at a Conference to be subsequently held between the Governments of the High Contracting Parties and are liable to revision or annulment as altered circumstances may require.

Article III.

The Governments of the High Contracting Parties agree that, upon the coming into force of the present Convention, they shall proceed to the revision of the Fishery Convention of 1907, taking into consideration such changes as may have taken place in the general conditions since the conclusion of the said Fishery Convention.

Pending the conclusion of a convention so revised, the Government of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics shall maintain the practices established in 1924 relating to the lease of fishery lots to Japanese subjects.

Article IV.

The Governments of the High Contracting Parties agree that, upon the coming into force of the present Convention, they shall proceed to the conclusion of a treaty of commerce and navigation in conformity with the principles hereunder mentioned, and that, pending the conclusion of such a treaty, the general intercourse between the two countries shall be regulated by those principles.

         (1) The subjects or citizens of each of the High Contracting Parties shall, in accordance with the laws of the country : (a) have full liberty to enter, travel and reside in the territories of the other, and (b) enjoy constant and complete protection for the safety of their lives and property.

         (2) Each of the High Contracting Parties shall, in accordance with the laws of the country, accord in its territories to the subjects or citizens of the other, to the widest possible extent and on condition of reciprocity, the right of private ownership and the liberty to engage in commerce, navigation, industries and other peaceful pursuits.

         (3) Without prejudice to the right of each Contracting Party to regulate by its own laws the system of international trade in that country, it is understood that neither Contracting Party shall apply in discrimination against the other Party any measures of prohibition, restriction or impost which may serve to hamper the growth of the intercourse, economic or otherwise, between the two countries, it being the intention of both Parties to place the commerce, navigation and industry of each country, as far as possible, on the footing of the most-favoured nation.

The Governments of the High Contracting Parties further agree that they shall enter into negotiations, from time to tune as circumstances may require, for the conclusion of special arrangements relative to commerce and navigation to adjust and to promote economic relations between the two countries.

Article V.

The High Contracting Parties solemnly affirm their desire and intention to live in peace and amity with each other, scrupulously to respect the undoubted right of a State to order its own life within its own jurisdiction in its own way, to refrain and restrain all persons in any govern mental service for them, and all organisations in receipt of any financial assistance from them, from any act overt or covert liable in any way whatever to endanger the order and security in any part of the territories of Japan or the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics.

It is further agreed that neither Contracting Party shall permit the presence in the territories under its jurisdiction :

     (a) of organisations or groups pretending to be the Government for any part of the territories of the other Party, or

      (b) of alien subjects or citizens who may be found to be actually carrying on political activities for such organisations or groups.

Article VI.

In the interest of promoting economic relations between the two countries, and taking into consideration the needs of Japan with regard to natural resources, the Government of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics is willing to grant to Japanese subjects, companies and associations concessions for the exploitation of minerals, forests and other natural resources in all the territories of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics.

Article VII.

The present Convention shall be ratified.

Such ratification by each of the High Contracting Parties shall, with as little delay as possible, be communicated, through its diplomatic representative at Peking, to the Government of the other Party, and from the date of the later of such communications this Convention shall come into full force.

The formal exchange of the ratifications shall take place at Peking as soon as possible.

In witness whereof the respective Plenipotentiaries have signed the present Convention, in duplicate in the English language, and have affixed thereto their seals.

Done at Peking, this twentieth day of January, One thousand nine-hundred and twenty-five.

                    (L. S.) K. YOSHIZAWA.

                    (L. S.) L. KARAKHAN.

Japan and Russia, and then Japan and the Soviet Union, never got along well.  They had fought the Russo Japanese War some twenty years prior, and Japan had heavily intervened in Siberia during the Russian Civil War.  There remains tension between them over the the Sakhalin.

Last edition:

I had no idea Sanka was this old.

Monday, January 6, 2025

Saturday, January 6, 1725. Peter the Great gets sick, again, and instructs Vitus Bearing.

The mysterious disease that afflicted Czar Peter the Great returned, with a cold bringing it on.

In spite of the affliction, on the same day he issued instructions to Vitus Bering to prove definitely that Siberia was separated from North America and to find the nearest European settlement in the New World.

Last edition:

Wednesday, October 11, 1724. Fort Drummer attacked.


Saturday, December 28, 2024

Wars and Rumors of War, 2024. Part 8. Wider wars.

You will hear of wars and rumors of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed. Such things must happen, but the end is still to come. Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom.

Matthew, Chapter 24.


There is no hunting like the hunting of man, and those who have hunted armed men long enough and liked it, never care for anything else thereafter.

Ernest Hemingway.

August 7, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukrainian troops have advanced into Russia's Kursk Oblast and are in their second day of operations there.

August 8, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Rockets from northern Gaza have lead to an Israeli advisory in the area that residents should leave.

An arrest of ISIL terrorist who were plotting a strike in a European Taylor Swift concert lead to cancellation of events.

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukrainian forces have made confirmed advances up to 10 kilometers into Russia's Kursk Oblast amid continued mechanized offensive operations on Russian territory on August 7. Geolocated footage published on August 6 and 7 shows that Ukrainian armored vehicles have advanced to positions along the 38K-030 route about 10 kilometers from the international border.[1] The current confirmed extent and location of Ukrainian advances in Kursk Oblast indicate that Ukrainian forces have penetrated at least two Russian defensive lines and a stronghold.[2] A Russian insider source claimed that Ukrainian forces have seized 45 square kilometers of territory within Kursk Oblast since they launched the operation on August 6, and other Russian sources reported that Ukrainian forces have captured 11 total settlements, including Nikolaevo-Daryino (1.5 kilometers north of the Sumy Oblast border), Darino (three kilometers north of the Sumy Oblast border), and Sverdlikovo (east of the Nikolaevo-Darino-Darino area), and are operating within Lyubimovka (eight kilometers north of the Sumy Oblast border).

ISW.

August 9, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Russia has declared a Federal level emergency due to the incursion near Kursk.  Ukrainian advances have been fairly extensive.

August 10, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukrainian advances have resulted in evacuation orders being issued and the formation of some local anti government partisan units seeming to have formed.

August 15, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

The Ukrainians have taken the Russian town of Sudzha in the Kursk Oblast.

cont:

And now the Ukrainians are in Belgorod Oblast, south of Kursk Oblast, and directly north of Kharkov.

Resistance was strengthening in opposition to the offensive in Kursk, so they've side stepped it.

August 16, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Russia jailed dual US/Russian citizen ballerina  Ksenia Khavana for a $52.00 donation to a charity aiding Ukraine.

Indian has asked its citizens who live near the conflicts zones to relocated:

In view of the recent security incidents in Bryansk, Belgorod and Kursk regions, Indian nationals are advised to take necessary precautions and relocate outside these regions.  Any Indian national or student requiring assistance may contact the embassy.

Russian forces are attempting to encircle Ukrainian forces southeast of Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast.  While Ukrainian forces are on the offensive in Russia, Russian forces remain on the offensive in Ukraine.

August 17, 2024

Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States finalized a  trade agreement removing export barriers on defense goods and technology between them.

August 22, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Russian mercenary leader Georgy Zakrevsky has called for Putin to be removed.

August 25, 2024

ISIL v Everyone

ISIL claimed responsibility for a knife attack in Solingen, Germany, that killed three people and wounded eight others at a claiming the murder targeted Christians and did this to avenge Muslims and Palestinians everywhere, as if doing that in Germany would make a lick of sense whatsoever.

Middle Eastern War

Israel has been conducting air strikes in Gaza 

It conducted massive ones in southern Lebanon, to which Hezbollah responded with rockets.

I suspect that Israel is hitting targets heavily in advance of an anticipated cease fire.

cont:

Actually, the strike in Lebanon was a preemptive strike.

August 28, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukraine reports that Russia has lost over 600,000 men in its war with the country, of which over 180,000 were killed.

By way of a contrast, 58,220 Americans were killed in the Vietnam War.

The Russians have been advancing rapidly near Pokrovsk and are generally sustaining offensive operations in Ukraine.

September 4, 2024

China v. Taiwan

In a recent interview, the president of the Republic of China (Taiwan) suggested that the People's Republic of China, rather than bothering Taiwan, ought to cast its eyes on land that it lost to Russia in the 1850s and 1860s.

If it is for the sake of territorial integrity, why doesn’t it take back the lands occupied by Russia that were signed over in the Treaty of Aigun? Russia is now at its weakest, right? You can ask Russia (for the land back) but you don’t. So it’s obvious they don’t want to invade Taiwan for territorial reasons.

Here's the territory he referenced:


That's a lot of territory.

From the way it was said, I think the remark was meant to be flippant, rather than serious, but it does raise a real question which is, with Russia so weak, will China look north?

September 5, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Belarus scrambled fighters to shoot down Russian drones that invaded its airspace.

September 9, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Russian drones have entered Latvian and Romanian airspace within the past few days.

September 10, 2024

China v. India

Chinese special forces penetrated into India for up to 30 miles and stayed there for several days.  China and India's border is disputed.

September 11, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Apparently getting a big positive reaction in Poland:

Why don't you tell the 800,000 Polish Americans right here in Pennsylvania how quickly you would give up for the sake of favor, and what you think is a friendship with a dictator who would eat you for lunch?

Kamala Harris to Donald Trump in last night's debate.  Trump claimed he'd end the war, if elected, as President Elect, which a person would have to be an absolute idiot to believe. 

September 16, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Poland's foreign minister suggested ending social benefits for Ukrainian men living in Europe, which the Ukrainian government agreed with.  The goal would be to boost pressure on military aged men to return to the country and be available for military service.

September 17, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Pagers carried by Hezbollah operatives in Lebanon exploded at about the same time Tuesday afternoon injuring over 2,700 and killing eight.

Yikes.

September 18, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

A "massive" Ukrainian drone strike on Russian munitions' and fuel depots in Toropets, Tver, Russia has set things ablaze and resulted in a partial evacuation of the region.

For reference, this area is northwest of Moscow.

September 19, 2024

Middle Eastern War

And yesterday it occured again with two way radios.

September 20, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Israel launched major airstrikes in Lebanon directed at Hezbollah.  

The strikes against Hezbollah actually have received street level support in Arab countries, with Northern Syrian troops even passing out candy in celebration of the event in northern Syria.

Russo Ukrainian War

Putin rejected a request to mobilize made by senior Russian military leaders.  Knowing why Putin does what is hard to fathom, but speculation runs from a fear what it would do to the economy, to a fear what the public reaction would be.

On the latter, Ukraine is rapidly starting to resemble the US participation in the Vietnam War in some ways, and its notable that the US called up very few reservists in that conflict.

It became unpopular anyway, of course.

September 22, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Hezbollah retaliated with a massive rocket attack into Israel.  Israel responded with hundreds of airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon.

Israel closed down the Al Jazeera bureau in Gaza.

September 25, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Israel is calling up reservists and deploying them in the north in anticipation of a ground invasion of Lebanon.

September 29, 2024.

Middle Eastern War

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was killed in an Israeli airstrike.

October 1, 2024.

Middle Eastern War

Israel has commenced raids within Lebanon.

cont:

Iran struck Israel with missiles in retaliation.

October 6, 2024.

Middle Eastern War

Israel had expanded its missile campaign in Lebanon, hitting Hezbollah targets near Beirut and a Hamas target in northern Lebanon.

It's also reengaged in ground operations in Gaza.

October 8, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

The Ukrainians launched a major strike on a Russian petroleum facility on Crimea.

Somebody has launched a major cyber attack on Russian state media yesterday.

October 21, 2024.

Middle Eastern War

Israel has started targeting Hezbollah's financial wing, al-Qard al-Hassan, which operates as a cash based bank, in strikes in Lebanon.

October 22, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Where the money is:

https://x.com/i/status/1848438591409819750

October 23, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Israel killed major Hamas figure Yahya Ibrahim Hassan Sinwar.

Russo Ukrainian War

North Korea is sending large numbers of troops to Russia to fight against Ukraine.

October 23, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Israel conducted strikes on Iranian targets.

Russia has been supplying targeting information to the Houthis.

cont:

The Israeli airstrike was an actual air raid, with no losses.

The route is unclear, but this would involve overflights of at least three countries.  It shows Iranian air defenses to be completely anemic.

October 28, 2024

Russia

Possible Russian Gains in Georgia and Moldova

October 31, 2024

The war on ISIL

The US condcuted airstrikes on ISIL targets in Syria this week.

November 4, 2024

Russia v. The West

Western security officials say they believe that two incendiary devices, shipped via DHL, were part of a covert Russian operation that ultimately aimed to start fires aboard cargo or passenger aircraft flying to the U.S. and Canada, as Moscow steps up a sabotage campaign against Washington and its allies.

The devices ignited at DHL logistics hubs in July, one in Leipzig, Germany, and another in Birmingham, England. The explosions set off a multinational race to find the culprits.

Wall Street Journal. 

November 9, 2024

Iran v. the West.

Iranian agents were plotting to kill Donald Trump, but the plot was foiled by the FBI.  The plot was supposed to be put together quickly, and then if that could not be achieved, revived after the election, which they rationally expected him to lose.

November 18, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War.

The U.S. has approved use of the Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMs for Ukrainian strikes inside of Russia. This comes in response to Russian mustering of thousands of North Korean troops.

November 20, 2024

Russia and China v. The West

The Danish Navy boarded the Chinese-flagged bulk carrier Yi Peng 3, captained by a Russian, after it was suspected of damaging two undersea telecom cables in the Baltic Sea..

November 21, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Reports this morning hold that Russia hit Dnipro with an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).  If correct, its the first such use of an ICBM in history and would be an unconscionable escalation of the conflict.

November 23, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

The missile turns out to be a new intermediate range experimental Russian missile.

A North Korean general has been wounded in a Ukrainian missile attack near Kursk.

November 26, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Saudi Arabia is considering dropping the price of oil to $49/bbl to crush the Russian export oil market.

It'd crush the American one as well, which is pretty much what a new Trump administration would deserve, as would those oil producing states voting for him.

NPR Politics podcast on where the war may be headed, in light of the election of Trump:

Before leaving office, Biden wants to keep helping Ukraine

November 28, 2024

Middle Eastern War

A cease fire has been brokered by the US and France between Israel and Hezbollah.  This will require Hezbollah to withdraw, in Lebanon, north of a line in southern Lebanon.

It's worth noting that the Lebanese Army has largely sat the recent conflict out, probably hoping that Israel would destroy Hezbollah.  This agreement won't be good for Lebanon.

December 2, 2024

Syrian Civil War

A Sunni jihadist rebel group supported by Turkey has made serious gains, taking Aleppo in recent days.  In no small part this is due to the degrading of Russian support for the Syrian government and the degrading of Iranian support by Israel.  

This isn't, ironically, necessarily good news, as there's no reason to believe this group is democratic, or will bey sympathetic to Syrian minorities.

December 3, 2024

South Korea

In a bizarre episode South Korea was under martial law for a day, the President accusing the main opposition party of having communist sympathizers.  Parliament reversed his decision.

December 4, 2024

Syrian Civil War

The Russian Navy is evacuating naval assets from its base in Tartus, Syria,

December 6, 2024

Syrian Civil War

Syrian rebels took Hama, and appear likely to take Homs, in a drive that apparently seeks to sever Syria from the sea.

December 7, 2024

Syrian Civil War

Iran is withdrawing its troops from Syria, stating:

Iran is starting to evacuate its forces and military personnel because we cannot fight as an advisory and support force if Syria's army itself does not want to fight,  Iran has realized that it cannot manage the situation in Syria right now with any military operation and this option is off the table.

Rebels took Daraa and Sweida and the revolution is generally spreading everywhere.

December 26, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Finland has detained the Russian ship Eagle S after submarine cables in the Baltic were severed.  Estonia's parliament has gone into an emergency session on the Boxing Day holiday.

cont:

Russian air defenses downed an Azerbaijan Airlines plane that crashed in Kazakhstan.

December 27, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Israel struck Houthi targets in Yemen with airstrikes yesterday.   The strikes impressively demonstrates Israel's ability to strike targets with precision at distance via its air force.

Russo Ukrainian War

North Korean troops have sustained heavy casualties in combat against Ukraine.

Russia hit Ukraine in a massive air attack on Latin Rite Christmas Day.

December 28, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Houthis launched a massive missile raid on Israel yesterday.

South Korea

South Korea's legislature voted to impeach its acting president Han Duck-soo, two weeks after it voted to impeach its President Yoon Suk Yeol, in an example of how democratic bodies should act towards those who would seek to subvert democracy.

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukraine has equipped drones to shoot shotguns to take out other drones.

Related threads:

The conflict in Lebanon. A few items.

Last edition:

Wars and Rumors of War, 2024. Part 7. Undermined.