US engineers and Sudanese workmen completed the installation of the prefabricated Atbara railroad bridge over the Nile River near Khartoum.
Lord Kitchener remarked:
As Englishmen failed, I am delighted that our cousins across the Atlantic stepped in. This bridge is due to their energy, ability and power to turn out work of magnitude in less time than anybody else. I congratulate the Americans on their success in the erection of a bridge in the heart to Africa.
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Russo Ukrainian War
Some sort of Ukrainian offensive has started in southern Ukraine and in the Donetsk region.
The Russians have breached the Kakhovka dam within the territory they hold, probably as part of an effort to flood the battlefield.
June 7, 2023
Apparently, the breaching of the subject dam flooded Russian positions and carried some Russian soldiers off to their deaths.
June 8, 2023
The Ukrainian spring offensive has begun.
June 12, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Ukraine has been tight-lipped with information regarding the offensive, but it is now known that there have been advances in the south-eastern portion of the country and some villages have been liberated from Russian control, including Blagodatnoye and Neskuchnoe, They also continue to advance around Bakhmut.
Sudanese Civil War
Fighting resumed in the capital yesterday.
June 13, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Ukrainian partisans destroyed a train carrying diesel fuel near Mariupol.
The reservoir drained by Russian action has drained to the point where bodies of Soviet and German soldiers from the Second World War have been revealed.
June 13, 2023, cont.
Russian source are reporting that the Ukrainian Army is in Tokmak which, if true, puts them 63 km, or 40 miles, from Mariupol. 40 miles is a long way in military terms, but it that is true, and it may very well not be, Ukrainians are well on their way towards isolating Crimea.
Major General Sergei Goryachev, Chief of Staff of the 35th Combined Arms Army, was killed yesterday by a Ukrainian missile strike in the Zaporizhzhia region.
June 20, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
An odd comment from Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov:
Indeed, Ukraine was heavily militarized at the time of the beginning of the Special Military Operation. And, as Putin said yesterday, one of the tasks was to demilitarize Ukraine. In fact, this task is largely completed. Ukraine is using less and less of its weapons. And more and more it uses the weapons systems that Western countries supply it with.
This could be an example of random verbal slip ups, but it could also signal an intent to declare victory and go home in some fashion.
Having said that, there's now real reason to worry that the Ukrainian Spring Offensive will be a failure. The Ukrainian Army is advancing, but quite slowly. Both sides are taking heavy casualties.
June 23, 2023
Russia Civil War?
This is odd:
Perhaps the age-old lesson about why using mercenaries is a bad idea is being played out here.
Or perhaps the age-old lesson about not betraying your mercenaries is being played out here.
June 23, 2023, cont
Russian media is now terming the Wagner group's actions a "revolt" by its leader, and are urging Wagner troops to arrest him.
This is either the end of Wagner or the beginning of a really messy episode in Russia.
June 23, cont
Wagner forces and Russian Army forces are now fighting in Rostov On Don.
June 24, 2023
Russian Civil War
Putin made a broadcast appeal for Wagner to end its rebellion, without naming them by name. Translated by the Washington Post, which published the short address in full, it concludes:
As the President of Russia and Supreme Commander-in-Chief, as a citizen of Russia, I will do everything to defend the country, to protect the constitutional order, the lives, security and freedom of citizens.
The one who organized and prepared the military rebellion, who raised arms against their comrades-in-arms, betrayed Russia. And they will answer for it. And I urge those who are being dragged into this crime not to make a fatal and tragic, unparalleled mistake, to make the only right choice — to stop participating in criminal acts.
I believe that we will preserve and defend what is dear and sacred to us, and together with our Motherland we will overcome any trials, we will become even stronger.
This leaves Prigozhin now way out.
Wagner forces have been seen convoying north, as far north, as Kolodezsky, Lipetsk Oblast. That's halfway between Rostov and Moscow.
June 24, cont:
Moscow's mayor has declared Monday a day off and urged workers not to report to work Monday.
Putin's airplane departed Moscow, but it is not known who is on board it.
One report, goodness knows how reliable it is or isn't, has the police in Moscow pondering which side to land on, as they don't have the resources to oppose an actual military force.
Wow. Shades of Russia 1917, or is it Germany, July 44?
June 25, 2023
Wagner Uprising/Russo Ukrainian War
This bizarre drama seems to have played out.
Wagner mercenary chieftain Yevgeny Prigozhin, whose forces only yesterday were advancing unimpeded on Moscow, and who shot down seven Russian aircraft along the way, and who seemed set to depose Putin, struck a deal with the modern Czar in which his forces return, more or less to barracks, and he takes up exile in Belarus.
He better sleep with one eye open.
There's been utterly nothing like this whatsoever in modern times.
His forces that remain under arms will enter the Russian Army.
The U.S. was apparently aware of the intended uprising before it occurred and had informed Kyiv. While it demonstrated that there'rs nothing in the Russian rear, Ukraine does not appear to have been able to take advantage of the situation.
June 26, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
June 27, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Reports hold that the Ukrainian Army has crossed the Antonovsky Bridge over the Dnieper in Kherson Oblast.
Some Wagner troops are being redeployed to Belarus. This is not insignificant and may signal how Putin put down the rebellion. Wagner troops may now be committed to that region, in preparation for offensive actions from the north. It's worth remembering that Prigozhin complained earlier on that Putin wasn't being aggressive enough in Ukraine, and Putin has been trying to get Belarus to commit to the war.
ISW, on this, reports:
ISW's take on this is definitely different, noting that this would be a refuge for Prigozhin loyalist. For that matter, Wagner, which has operations in Africa, needs to retain a base, as does Prigozhin.
Prigozhin may be facing loyalty problems himself now, as troops that followed him are now denouncing him, having been led into a rebellion, and now feeling abandoned.
Putin, having avoided ending up a target on the Kremlin's wall, is talking tough about Wagner leadership and loyalist again, once again branding them traitors. It's almost certain that senior Wagner leadership will end up dead, as will Prigozhin, if our first speculation isn't correct. Even if it is, they may ultimately end up dead anyway. Prigozhin is now playing up his loyalty to Putin. ISW's view on the situation is that Putin's rupture with Prigozhin is complete.
June 28, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War/Russian Civil War
Leaked US intelligence holds that senior Russian military figures were aware of Prigozhin's coup attempt and may have supported it in varying degrees.
This is an indication that this story really hasn't played out yet. If that's correct, those figures need to decide if they'll accept the fate of those who support failed coups, or if the effort to replace Putin is still on. If significant numbers of senior Russian officers have cast their lot with Prigozhin, they could likely still pull off a change in government.
ISW reports that Belarus brokered the settlement with the goal of taking in Wagner troops as a hedge against Russia. The thesis that Belarus' seeks to avoid through pressure what Ukraine is resisting through military force, inclusion into Russia.
Ukrainian airborne has retaken some territory which was taken by the Russians in 2014.
June 29, 2023
Russian Civil War
General Sergey Surovikin, a senior Russian general, was arrested yesterday for his role in supporting the attempted coup.
June 30, 2023
Chinese Balloon
The US has concluded that the balloon did not gather intelligence over its flight over the U.S.
Frankly, I'm skeptical as to that conclusion, but that's the conclusion.
Russian Civil War/Russo Ukrainian War
A second Russian general,Valery Gerasimov, has disappeared, and the Russians are questioning pilots who refused to fire on Wagner forces.
Newsweek ran an op ed by author Rebekah Koffler, president of Doctrine & Strategy Consulting, and a former DIA intelligence officer, which asserts that the coup was a false flag operation designed to bolster Putin's status in the face of an upcoming election and to reposition Wagner troops in Belarus.
This now seems unlikely. One of the arguments she makes in favor of her argument is that the entire episode was hopelessly weird, which is quite true, but much of Russian history is likewise hopelessly weird. What other nation would see its army stand by while its leader committed mass murder of its leadership?
Ukrainian troops are praising the qualities of the Bradley Armored Fighting Vehicle.
Ukraine claims to have seized the "strategic initiative" near Bakhmut.
Syrian Civil War
The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) and Russian forces conducted airstrikes on rebel positions in Idlib Province between June 25 and 27. The head of the Russian Reconciliation Center, which is affiliated with the Russian Ministry of Defense in Syria, said the strikes responded to militants in Idlib Province that launched drone strikes into Syrian regime-held territory on June 22 and 23
There is further speculation that Iran may begin to participate in this mater on the Syrian government side.
If so, Russia is really playing with fire. Iranian long term goals don't match Russia's at all.
It's also an interesting example of how a really second rate army can still be a major force where the other forces are third rate.\
July 2, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War/Russian Civil War
Belorussian rebels report the construction of camps at a former military facility 140 miles from the Ukrainian border, which would appear to be for Wagner troops.
July 3, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Ukraine reports taking back 14.4 Square miles this past week. Slow-going is partially due to heavy Russian use of mines.
Israel/Palestinians
Israeli forces launched a large military operation in the occupied West Bank city of Jenin.
July 5, 2023
Israel/Palestinians
Israel pulled its forces back out of Jenin, but warned such raids could happen again in the future.
July 6, 2023
Russian Civil War
Wagner's troops have remained in their camps in Russia and its leader was sited in St. Petersburg, all of which is quite odd under the circumstances.
US v. ISIL
Russian jets harassed U.S. drones targeting ISIL.
July 7, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
The US is sending cluster munitions to Ukraine.
July 7, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
The Ukrainians have made significant tactical gains around Bakhmut.
The Russians have deployed Russian almost the entire Russian Eastern Grouping of Forces to southern Ukraine. This would mean that either they anticapte a massive Ukrainian effort shortly, or they have sustained so many losses that they are now in the effective position of committing all of their reserves.
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May 12, 2023
Mexican Border Crisis
Not in the category of war, but sort of an invasion, Title 42 expired last night and a flood of asylum seekers and others are anticipated to cross the border.
This is a crisis for the US that cannot be ignored. It is effectively an invasion of sorts, which if not addressed will have dire humanitarian and economic consequences in the United States and imperil the US's already frankly teetering democracy. Failing to come up with something has already created a dire humanitarian crisis in northern Mexico, which has, under its new leadership, lost patience with the United States. Some recent polls suggest that a majority of Texans wish to leave the union, with this being among the major causes. The migrant flood has already effectively destroyed aspects of civil life in cities along the border.
Prior to the 1970s, the United States would have intervened militarily in the failed states which are the home countries of the flood of desperate humanity. We no longer do such things, but this does bring up grave moral issues, among them being the toleration of pretending that the source countries have effective governments while their populations remove themselves for the American border. In the name of being a peaceable better neighbor, we've allowed countries to descend into chaos, and yet in this day and age gunboat diplomacy is presumably unthinkable.
What's to be done?
Whatever that is, there's little confidence in the current administration's ability to effectively do it, and the Republican Party is using the crisis to make political hay. Dithering, however, is contributing to it. Immediate action on the crisis is required, and a major reform of the US's already then naive circa 1970s immigration laws needs to take place.
Russo Ukrainian War
President Zylenskyy announced yesterday that Ukraine has delayed its Spring offensive due to a lack of ammunition.
A leader making such an announcement is phenomenal, and partially for that reason, there's reason to wonder about the statement. Still, it's been remarkable how little has occurred since the muddy seasons, presumably, has ended.
Added to that, quite frankly, if this is true, it causes grave reasons for concern.
The United Kingdom has supplied new long range cruise missiles to Ukraine.
Ukrainian forces have broken through Russian lines at Bakhmut.
The Russians have seized the Cathedral of the Orthodox Church of Ukraine in Simferopol, an area that they occupy.
May 13, 2023
Mexican Border Crisis
The predicted chaos did not ensue yesterday, which doesn't mean it's not arriving.
I split out the entry on this to a separate item, which I'll refer to here.
Russo Ukrainian War
In a technological game of chess, the Russians attempted to destroy a Patriot missile battery only to have the Patriots shoot the hypersonic missiles.
Now we know that Patriots can do that.
May 13, cont.
Russo Ukrainian War
President Zelenskyy is in Rome. He's met with the Italian Prime Minister Meloni, and is now meeting with the Pope.
May 14, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Belarusian President Lukashenko is gravely ill.
What happens in regard to his country's position on the conflict, should he die, is a wildcard.
For the first time in the war, four Russian aircraft, two jets and two helicopters were shot down inside of Russia itself.
May 15, 2023
Mexican Border Crisis
So far, migrant crossings into the US have actually dropped.
The lapse of Title 42 was a topic on the weekend shows. Of interest, the Democratic responses is always, basically, how to amend the law to make the process of taking in a flood of people more orderly, not addressing if the flood needs to be stemmed or stopped.
Russo Ukrainian War
On the weekend shows, there was much discussion of Trump's refusal to take a stand over supporting Ukraine in the war.
Are we surprised? Trump has always had some sort of weird relationship with Putin.
May 16, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
The 501st Separate Marine Infantry Battalion which surrendered in Mariupol last Spring were betrayed by a logistical officer who was cooperating with the Russians, effectively tricking them into surrendering, according to a Ukrainian investigation.
Regarding this sort of activity:
Leaked US intelligence accessed by The Washington Post indicates that Wagner Group financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin offered to disclose the locations of Russian positions to Ukrainian intelligence in exchange for Bakhmut.[1] The Washington Post reported on May 15 that Prigozhin offered the Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) information about Russian troop positions in exchange for a Ukrainian withdrawal from Bakhmut, and two Ukrainian unnamed officials confirmed that Prigozhin had spoken to GUR officials on numerous occasions. GUR officials reportedly rejected Prigozhin’s offer because they did not trust Prigozhin, and some documents indicate that Kyiv suspects that the Kremlin is aware of Prigozhin’s communication with Ukrainian intelligence. The Washington Post reported that Prigozhin urged Ukrainian officials to attack Russian forces and revealed the problems that the Russian forces are facing with morale and ammunition stocks. The Washington Post published an interview with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on May 13 about GUR Chief Major General Kyrylo Budanov’s interactions with Prigozhin and his operatives in Africa in which Zelensky did not confirm Ukraine’s contacts with Prigozhin.[2]
May 20, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
The United States, Portugal and Denmark will train Ukrainian pilots on F-16s.
Counteroffensive? Still no signs of one.
May 21, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
The Russians are claiming to have taken Bakhmut, although it remains unclear if they have. ISW regards the capture, if it occurred, as tactically insignificant.
Zelenskyy is at the G7 seeking ongoing support for Ukraine.
Italy may also start training Ukrainian pilots.
Mexican Border Crisis\
Mexico, also plagued by the immigration crisis, is flying migrants south, away from the US border, and bussing migrants away from the Guatemalan border.
Camps that are some distance north of the southern Mexican border predominately house Haitian migrants.
Sudanese Civil War
The fighting factions of the Sudanese military agreed to a seven-day cease fire. The US and Saudi Arabia brokered the hiatus in fighting.
May 22, 2023
Papua New Guinea/United States
Papua New Guinea and the US will sign a defense pact aimed at countering China.
May 23, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Anti Putin Russians fighting with Ukraine entered Belgorod Oblast. The Russians are complaining about it, but why, after invading Ukraine, they'd be upset by having Ukrainian allied forces invade them, is hard to fathom.
The incursion, which has only crossed a limited area of the border, has seen the forces which engaged in it dig in.
Wagner forces are leaving Bakhmut, after having taken it, in order to turn it over to the Russian Army. Apparently they intend to refit elsewhere. Ukrainian forces have advanced around the city to some extent.
May 28, 2023
Iran & Afghanistan
Iran and Taliban forces exchanged gun fire on their border in a fight that is over water rights.
May 30, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Moscow was hit by drones yesterday. Ukraine has denied involvement.
The Russians hit Ukraine with missile and drone attacks every day. Their frequency is why we don't report them here.
May 31, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Ukraine hit a Russian refinery on the Black Sea today with drones.
June 1, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Russia claimed to have destroyed Ukraine's last remaining warship yesterday.
June 4, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
President Zelenskyy announced that Ukraine is ready to launch its counteroffensive.
Declaring something like that is quite odd, so its hard to know what to make of it.
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