May 12, 2023
Mexican Border Crisis
Not in the category of war, but sort of an invasion, Title 42 expired last night and a flood of asylum seekers and others are anticipated to cross the border.
This is a crisis for the US that cannot be ignored. It is effectively an invasion of sorts, which if not addressed will have dire humanitarian and economic consequences in the United States and imperil the US's already frankly teetering democracy. Failing to come up with something has already created a dire humanitarian crisis in northern Mexico, which has, under its new leadership, lost patience with the United States. Some recent polls suggest that a majority of Texans wish to leave the union, with this being among the major causes. The migrant flood has already effectively destroyed aspects of civil life in cities along the border.
Prior to the 1970s, the United States would have intervened militarily in the failed states which are the home countries of the flood of desperate humanity. We no longer do such things, but this does bring up grave moral issues, among them being the toleration of pretending that the source countries have effective governments while their populations remove themselves for the American border. In the name of being a peaceable better neighbor, we've allowed countries to descend into chaos, and yet in this day and age gunboat diplomacy is presumably unthinkable.
What's to be done?
Whatever that is, there's little confidence in the current administration's ability to effectively do it, and the Republican Party is using the crisis to make political hay. Dithering, however, is contributing to it. Immediate action on the crisis is required, and a major reform of the US's already then naive circa 1970s immigration laws needs to take place.
Russo Ukrainian War
President Zylenskyy announced yesterday that Ukraine has delayed its Spring offensive due to a lack of ammunition.
A leader making such an announcement is phenomenal, and partially for that reason, there's reason to wonder about the statement. Still, it's been remarkable how little has occurred since the muddy seasons, presumably, has ended.
Added to that, quite frankly, if this is true, it causes grave reasons for concern.
The United Kingdom has supplied new long range cruise missiles to Ukraine.
Ukrainian forces have broken through Russian lines at Bakhmut.
The Russians have seized the Cathedral of the Orthodox Church of Ukraine in Simferopol, an area that they occupy.
May 13, 2023
Mexican Border Crisis
The predicted chaos did not ensue yesterday, which doesn't mean it's not arriving.
I split out the entry on this to a separate item, which I'll refer to here.
Russo Ukrainian War
In a technological game of chess, the Russians attempted to destroy a Patriot missile battery only to have the Patriots shoot the hypersonic missiles.
Now we know that Patriots can do that.
May 13, cont.
Russo Ukrainian War
President Zelenskyy is in Rome. He's met with the Italian Prime Minister Meloni, and is now meeting with the Pope.
May 14, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Belarusian President Lukashenko is gravely ill.
What happens in regard to his country's position on the conflict, should he die, is a wildcard.
For the first time in the war, four Russian aircraft, two jets and two helicopters were shot down inside of Russia itself.
May 15, 2023
Mexican Border Crisis
So far, migrant crossings into the US have actually dropped.
The lapse of Title 42 was a topic on the weekend shows. Of interest, the Democratic responses is always, basically, how to amend the law to make the process of taking in a flood of people more orderly, not addressing if the flood needs to be stemmed or stopped.
Russo Ukrainian War
On the weekend shows, there was much discussion of Trump's refusal to take a stand over supporting Ukraine in the war.
Are we surprised? Trump has always had some sort of weird relationship with Putin.
May 16, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
The 501st Separate Marine Infantry Battalion which surrendered in Mariupol last Spring were betrayed by a logistical officer who was cooperating with the Russians, effectively tricking them into surrendering, according to a Ukrainian investigation.
Regarding this sort of activity:
Leaked US intelligence accessed by The Washington Post indicates that Wagner Group financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin offered to disclose the locations of Russian positions to Ukrainian intelligence in exchange for Bakhmut.[1] The Washington Post reported on May 15 that Prigozhin offered the Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) information about Russian troop positions in exchange for a Ukrainian withdrawal from Bakhmut, and two Ukrainian unnamed officials confirmed that Prigozhin had spoken to GUR officials on numerous occasions. GUR officials reportedly rejected Prigozhin’s offer because they did not trust Prigozhin, and some documents indicate that Kyiv suspects that the Kremlin is aware of Prigozhin’s communication with Ukrainian intelligence. The Washington Post reported that Prigozhin urged Ukrainian officials to attack Russian forces and revealed the problems that the Russian forces are facing with morale and ammunition stocks. The Washington Post published an interview with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on May 13 about GUR Chief Major General Kyrylo Budanov’s interactions with Prigozhin and his operatives in Africa in which Zelensky did not confirm Ukraine’s contacts with Prigozhin.[2]
May 20, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
The United States, Portugal and Denmark will train Ukrainian pilots on F-16s.
Counteroffensive? Still no signs of one.
May 21, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
The Russians are claiming to have taken Bakhmut, although it remains unclear if they have. ISW regards the capture, if it occurred, as tactically insignificant.
Zelenskyy is at the G7 seeking ongoing support for Ukraine.
Italy may also start training Ukrainian pilots.
Mexican Border Crisis\
Mexico, also plagued by the immigration crisis, is flying migrants south, away from the US border, and bussing migrants away from the Guatemalan border.
Camps that are some distance north of the southern Mexican border predominately house Haitian migrants.
Sudanese Civil War
The fighting factions of the Sudanese military agreed to a seven-day cease fire. The US and Saudi Arabia brokered the hiatus in fighting.
May 22, 2023
Papua New Guinea/United States
Papua New Guinea and the US will sign a defense pact aimed at countering China.
May 23, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Anti Putin Russians fighting with Ukraine entered Belgorod Oblast. The Russians are complaining about it, but why, after invading Ukraine, they'd be upset by having Ukrainian allied forces invade them, is hard to fathom.
The incursion, which has only crossed a limited area of the border, has seen the forces which engaged in it dig in.
Wagner forces are leaving Bakhmut, after having taken it, in order to turn it over to the Russian Army. Apparently they intend to refit elsewhere. Ukrainian forces have advanced around the city to some extent.
May 28, 2023
Iran & Afghanistan
Iran and Taliban forces exchanged gun fire on their border in a fight that is over water rights.
May 30, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Moscow was hit by drones yesterday. Ukraine has denied involvement.
The Russians hit Ukraine with missile and drone attacks every day. Their frequency is why we don't report them here.
May 31, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Ukraine hit a Russian refinery on the Black Sea today with drones.
June 1, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Russia claimed to have destroyed Ukraine's last remaining warship yesterday.
June 4, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
President Zelenskyy announced that Ukraine is ready to launch its counteroffensive.
Declaring something like that is quite odd, so its hard to know what to make of it.
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