How did war gamers get the war with Iran right, before it started, and the Administration didn't?

The other day I posted an item noting that old Avalon Hills gamers could have predicted the outcome of our ill advised and illegal war with Iran.  

Turns out, they did.  

I hadn't realized that at all when I posted that, but somebody I know well and who also likes hex and counter games did, and pointed it out.  

GMT Games has it as part of their Next War series in the form of Next War: Iran.

Here's GMT Games write up on its game:

Description

The Middle East has long been a hobgoblin for foreign powers and, as much as Afghanistan, also a graveyard of empires. Sitting squarely astride ancient trade routes and with the added impetus of the world's addiction to oil, the area has been a hot spot for centuries.

Now, with the old regime teetering and losing its grip, Iran makes a bid for forcing the West to recognize its complete sovereignty and control over its own affairs by striking at the one thing they care about: the flow of oil. Mining the Straits of Hormuz and declaring it closed to all traffic, Iran defies the world. The US, and perhaps some of its allies, takes action to re-open the straits and get the black gold flowing to the world again.

Next War: Iran is the sixth game in the Next War series. It is unique in the series in that the Allied player has to do the attacking while the non-Allied player attempts to defend its territory against neo-imperial oppression. With a long logistical tail, few true allies in the region, and the menace of Iran's A2AD capabilities, re-opening the Straits is a tall order.

The game came out in 2024.

Note the difficulty the war poses:

With a long logistical tail, few true allies in the region, and the menace of Iran's A2AD capabilities, re-opening the Straits is a tall order.

Gee. . . . 

Maybe Pete should have bought a few boxes of Next War:  Iran rather than worrying about low T.

The game was, we'd note, the 2024 Charles S. Roberts award winner for Best Hypothetical Game.

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Anyhow:

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