Sunday, February 13, 1944. The sinking of the Henry and Irma.

The Norwegian cargo ship Henry and passenger ship Irma were sunk off Kristiansund by two ships of the Royal Norwegian Navy due to their not having markings, according to the Royal Norwegian Navy.

The sinking became controversial, and remains so.

The USS Macaw ran aground at Midway and sank.  

The U.S. 14th Air Force raided Hong Kong.

The Germans assassinated Cretan resistance fighter Yiannis Dramoutanis.

The Red Army took Luga, Polna and Lyady.  Trapped German units pulled out of Korsun-Sevchenkosky late in the day, but did not break out of encirclement.

Horseshoe Dam Site Bridge, Maricopa County, Arizona.  February 13, 1944.

Friday, July 20, 1973. The death of Bruce Lee.

Actor and martial artist Bruce Lee Bruce Lee ( 李小龍) born Lee Jun-fan, (李振藩) 32 years of age, died from an allergic reaction to the meprobamate, the active ingredient in the painkiller Equagesic.

Bruce Lee from publicity photo for Fists of Fury.

Lee retains a cult following today, although I'm not part of it.  He is widely regarded as the greatest martial arts practitioner of all time.

Lee was born in San Francisco, and therefore could claim U.S. citizenship, although his family returned to Hong Kong immediately before the outbreak of the war n the Pacific.  His father was a famous Cantonese opera singer.  He was of mixed Chinese and European ancestry.  He left a wife and two children.  His son Brandon Lee would follow his footsteps and would tragically die when a firearm being used as a prop was loaded with improperly made dummy rounds.  His daughter Shannon is an actress, singer, and businesswoman.

Japan Air Lines Flight 404 was hijacked by the Japanese Red Army and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine.  It would eventually be flown to Benghazi were the passengers were released and the 747 blown up.

Muammar Gaddafi announced his resignation as the leader of Libya following the failure of his plans to unite the country with Egypt.  He'd get over the resignation and reverse it three days later, following his cabinet's announcement that they'd also resign.  

Efforts to form a larger Arab republic centered on Egypt have existed since World War One with serval putative efforts to establish it.  Egypt itself was the most powerful and significant Middle Eastern state up until 1973, when the importance of oil, which Egypt has little of, began to eclipse it. 

Friday December 19, 1941. Royal Navy Disasters, German Ground Reversals, Japanese Advances, Gardens and Censorship.

Italy achieved what was amounting to a rare naval victory when it attacked two Royal Navy battleships at Alexandria, Egypt, and disabled them, using three manned torpedoes, dispatched from a submarine.  The HMS Valiant and HMS Queen Elizabeth were badly damaged in the bold attack, and the HMS Jervis, a destroyer, was as well.

The HMS Queen Elizabeth.

Because of the way the HMS Queen Elizabeth settled, it had the illusion of remaining afloat, something that was maintained until she could be dry docked and repaired.

HMS Valiant.

The Valiant was a sister ship, both being of the Queen Elizabeth Class.  She'd be reassigned to the Pacific later in the war.   Both British battleships would return to action, but it would take more or less a year to accomplish.

All the Italian frogmen survived and were made Prisoners of War.

On the same day, the British HMS Neptune was sunk by mines off of Tripoli.  The HMS Aurora and HMS Penelope were damaged.  The following day, the HMS Kandahar was hit and had to be scuttled.

The bold and unconventional Italian attack, and the successful minefield laying, reversed the naval balance of power in the Eastern Mediterranean in favor of the Axis.

It also somewhat cuts into the myth that there were no naval surface actions during the war.  In fact, there were a lot of them, and at this stage of the war the naval battle in the Mediterranean remained a heavily surface campaign.

Walter von Brauchitsch was relieved as Commander in Chief of the Germany Army.  Hitler replaced him with Hitler, a tipping point in the war for a variety of reasons.  With this, the German Army's bargain in which it supported the rise of the Nazis in exchange for Nazi support for the Army was essentially betrayed and shown to be worthless, as the Nazi co-opting of the Army was effectively complete.

Moreover, it showed an increasing strain in the German war effort as the dawn of realization that not only had Operation Barbarossa failed started, but it was obvious that the Soviets were not only not defeated, but they were beginning to reverse German fortunes for the first time in the war.  The obvious fear that Germany had overstretched herself and now the decline would become general was developing.

Von Brauchitsch was effectively retired by the act and never received another command.  He was imprisoned after the war on war crimes but died in a British military prison before he could be tried.

Hitler, who was already Commander in Chief of the Wehrmacht, would remain CiC of the Heer for the rest of the war.

The Indian 4th Division took Derna, Libya, where the Germans were also experiencing setbacks.  It was a victory, but the Germans had pulled out before they could be trapped and defeated there.

The Japanese invaded Davoa, in the Philippines.

Sgt Maj. John Osborn of the Winnipeg Grenadiers won a posthumous Victory Cross for falling on a Japanese hand grenade at the battle for Hong Kong, making him the first Canadian soldier to receive that award during World War Two.

His citation read:

At Hong Kong on the morning of 19th December 1941 a Company of the Winnipeg Grenadiers to which Company Sergeant-Major Osborn belonged became divided during an attack on Mount Butler, a hill rising steeply above sea level. A part of the Company led by Company Sergeant-Major Osborn captured the hill at the point of the bayonet and held it for three hours when, owing to the superior numbers of the enemy and to fire from an unprotected flank, the position became untenable. Company Sergeant-Major Osborn and a small group covered the withdrawal and when their turn came to fall back, Osborn single-handed engaged the enemy while the remainder successfully rejoined the Company. Company Sergeant-Major Osborn had to run the gauntlet of heavy rifle and machine gun fire. With no consideration for his own safety he assisted and directed stragglers to the new Company position exposing himself to heavy enemy fire to cover their retirement. Whenever danger threatened he was there to encourage his men. 

During the afternoon the Company was cut off from the Battalion and completely surrounded by the enemy who were able to approach to within grenade throwing distance of the slight depression which the Company was holding. Several enemy grenades were thrown which Company Sergeant-Major Osborn picked up and threw back. The enemy threw a grenade which landed in a position where it was impossible to pick it up and return it in time. Shouting a warning to his comrades this gallant Warrant Officer threw himself on the grenade which exploded killing him instantly. His self-sacrifice undoubtedly saved the lives of many others. 

Company Sergeant-Major Osborn was an inspiring example to all throughout the defence which he assisted so magnificently in maintaining against an overwhelming enemy force for over eight and a half hours and in his death he displayed the highest quality of heroism and self-sacrifice.

Osborn was born in England, reflecting a Canada in which the English speaking population still had strong connections to the United Kingdom and in fact a fair number were English born.  He'd served in the Royal Navy during World War One.

US War Cabinet meeting, December 19, 1941.

The United States started the Office of Censorship.

It censored communications during the war coming into and out of the country.

The National Defense Garden Conference commenced to encourage growing your own.

Both of these last two items are from here:

Today in World War II History—December 19, 1941

Also on that site, you can read about Victory Gardens as well, here:

Victory Gardens in World War II

The endless series of nearly meaningless declarations of war continued, with Nicaragua declaring war on Bulgaria, Hungary and Romania.

 Additional labels for the post immediately above.

Tuesday, December 9, 1941. The Expanding Japanese Offensive.

President Roosevelt delivered a "fireside chat" to the nation on the arrival of war with Japan.  You can listend to it above, or read it below:

My fellow Americans:

The sudden criminal attacks perpetrated by the Japanese in the Pacific provide the climax of a decade of international immorality.

Powerful and resourceful gangsters have banded together to make war upon the whole human race. Their challenge has now been flung at the United States of America. The Japanese have treacherously violated the long-standing peace between us. Many American soldiers and sailors have been killed by enemy action. American ships have been sunk; American airplanes have been destroyed.

The Congress and the people of the United States have accepted that challenge.

Together with other free peoples, we are now fighting to maintain our right to live among our world neighbors in freedom and in common decency, without fear of assault.

I have prepared the full record of our past relations with Japan, and it will be submitted to the Congress. It begins with the visit of Commodore Perry to Japan 88 years ago. It ends with the visit of two Japanese emissaries to the Secretary of State last Sunday, an hour after Japanese forces had loosed their bombs and machine guns against our flag, our forces, and our citizens.

I can say with utmost confidence that no Americans, today or a thousand years hence, need feel anything but pride in our patience and in our efforts through all the years toward achieving a peace in the Pacific which would be fair and honorable to every Nation, large or small. And no honest person, today or a thousand years hence, will be able to suppress a sense of indignation and horror at the treachery committed by the military dictators of Japan, under the very shadow of the flag of peace borne by their special envoys in our midst.

The course that Japan has followed for the past ten years in Asia has paralleled the course of Hitler and Mussolini in Europe and in Africa. Today, it has become far more than a parallel. It is actual collaboration so well calculated that all the continents of the world, and all the oceans, are now considered by the Axis strategists as one gigantic battlefield.

In 1931, ten years ago, Japan invaded Manchukuo—without warning.

In 1935, Italy invaded Ethiopia—without warning.

In 1938, Hitler occupied Austria —without warning.

In 1939, Hitler invaded Czechoslovakia- without warning.

Later in 1939, Hitler invaded Poland- without warning.

In 1940, Hitler invaded Norway, Denmark, the Netherlands, Belgium, and Luxembourg- without warning.

In 1940, Italy attacked France and later Greece—without warning.

And this year, in 1941, the Axis powers attacked Yugoslavia and Greece and they dominated the Balkans—without warning. In 1941, also, Hitler invaded Russia—without warning.

And now Japan has attacked Malaya and Thailand—and the United States—without warning.

It is all of one pattern.

We are now in this war. We are all in it- all the way. Every single man, woman, and child is a partner in the most tremendous undertaking of our American history. We must share together the bad news and the good news, the defeats and the victories—the changing fortunes of war.

So far, the news has been all bad. We have suffered a serious set-back in Hawaii. Our forces in the Philippines, which include the brave people of that Commonwealth, are taking punishment, but are defending themselves vigorously. The reports from Guam and Wake and Midway islands are still confused, but we must be prepared for the announcement that all these three outposts have been seized.

The casualty lists of these first few days will undoubtedly be large. I deeply feel the anxiety of all of the families of the men in our armed forces and the relatives of people in cities which have been bombed. I can only give them my solemn promise that they will get news just as quickly as possible.

This Government will put its trust in the stamina of the American people, and will give the facts to the public just as soon as two conditions have been fulfilled: first, that the information has been definitely and officially confirmed; and, second, that the release of the information at the time it is received will not prove valuable to the enemy directly or indirectly.

Most earnestly I urge my countrymen to reject all rumors. These ugly little hints of complete disaster fly thick and fast in wartime. They have to be examined and appraised.

As an example, I can tell you frankly that until further surveys are made, I have not sufficient information to state the exact damage which has been done to our naval vessels at Pearl Harbor. Admittedly the damage is serious. But no one can say how serious, until we know how much of this damage can be repaired and how quickly the necessary repairs can be made.

I cite as another example a statement made on Sunday night that a Japanese carrier had been located and sunk off the Canal Zone. And when you hear statements that are attributed to what they call "an authoritative source," you can be reasonably sure from now on that under these war circumstances the "authoritative source" is not any person in authority.

Many rumors and reports which we now hear originate with enemy sources. For instance, today the Japanese are claiming that as a result of their one action against Hawaii they have gained naval supremacy in the Pacific. This is an old trick of propaganda which has been used innumerable times by the Nazis. The purposes of such fantastic claims are, of course, to spread fear and confusion among us, and to goad us into revealing military information which our enemies are desperately anxious to obtain.

Our Government will not be caught in this obvious trap—and neither will the people of the United States.

It must be remembered by each and every one of us that our free and rapid communication these days must be greatly restricted in wartime. It is not possible to receive full, speedy, accurate reports from distant areas of combat. This is particularly true where naval operations are concerned. For in these days of the marvels of radio it is often impossible for the commanders of various units to report their activities by radio at all, for the very simple reason that this information would become available to the enemy, and would disclose their position and their plan of defense or attack.

Of necessity there will be delays in officially confirming or denying reports of operations but we will not hide facts from the country if we know the facts and if the enemy will not be aided by their disclosure.

To all newspapers and radio stations—all those who reach the eyes and ears of the American people—I say this: You have a most grave responsibility to the Nation now and for the duration of this war.

If you feel that your Government is not disclosing enough of the truth, you have every right to say so. But—in the absence of all the facts, as revealed by official sources—you have no right in the ethics of patriotism to deal out unconfirmed reports in such a way as to make people believe that they are gospel truth.

Every citizen, in every walk of life,. shares this same responsibility. The lives of our soldiers and sailors- the whole future of this Nation—depend upon the manner in which each and every one of us fulfills his obligation to our country.

Now a word about the recent past—and the future. A year and a half has elapsed since the fall of France, when the whole world first realized the mechanized might which the Axis Nations had been building for so many years. America has used that year and a half to great advantage. Knowing that the attack might reach us in all too short a time, we immediately began greatly to increase our industrial strength and our capacity to meet the demands of modern warfare.

Precious months were gained by sending vast quantities of our war material to the Nations of the world still able to resist Axis aggression. Our policy rested on the fundamental truth that the defense of any country resisting Hitler or Japan was in the long run the defense of our own country. That policy has been justified. It has given us time, invaluable time, to build our American assembly lines of production.

Assembly lines are now in operation. Others are being rushed to completion. A steady stream of tanks and planes, of guns and ships, and shells and equipment—that is what these eighteen months have given us.

But it is all only a beginning of what still has to be done. We must be set to face a long war against crafty and powerful bandits. The attack at Pearl Harbor can be repeated at any one of many points, points in both oceans and along both our coast lines and against all the rest of the hemisphere.

It will not only be a long war, it will be a hard war. That is the basis on which we now lay all our plans. That is the yardstick by which we measure what we shall need and demand; money, materials, doubled and quadrupled production—ever-increasing. The production must be not only for our own Army and Navy and Air Forces. It must reinforce the other armies and navies and air forces fighting the Nazis and the war lords of Japan throughout the Americas and throughout the world.

I have been working today on the subject of production. Your Government has decided on two broad policies.

The first is to speed up all existing production by working on a seven-day-week basis in every war industry, including the production of essential raw materials.

The second policy, now being put into form, is to rush additions to the capacity of production by building more new plants, by adding to old plants, and by using the many smaller plants for war needs.

Over the hard road of the past months, we have at times met obstacles and difficulties, divisions and disputes, indifference and callousness. That is now all past—and, I am sure, forgotten.

The fact is that the country now has an organization in Washington built around men and women who are recognized experts in their own fields. I think the country knows that the people who are actually responsible in each and every one of these many fields are pulling together with a teamwork that has never before been excelled.

On the road ahead there lies hard work—grueling workday and night, every hour and every minute.

I was about to add that ahead there lies sacrifice for all of us.

But it is not correct to use that word. The United States does not consider it a sacrifice to do all one can, to give one's best to our Nation, when the Nation is fighting for its existence and its future life.

It is not a sacrifice for any man, old or young, to be in the Army or the Navy of the United States. Rather is it a privilege.

It is not a sacrifice for the industrialist or the wage earner, the farmer or the shopkeeper, the trainman or the doctor, to pay more taxes, to buy more bonds, to forego extra profits, to work longer or harder at the task for which he is best fitted. Rather is it a privilege.

It is not a sacrifice to do without many things to which we are accustomed if the national defense calls for doing without.

A review this morning leads me to the conclusion that at present we shall not have to curtail the normal use of articles of food. There is enough food today for all of us and enough left over to send to those who are fighting on the same side with us.

But there will be a clear and definite shortage of metals of many kinds for civilian use, for the very good reason that in our increased program we shall need for war purposes more than half of that portion of the principal metals which during the past year have gone into articles for civilian use. Yes, we shall have to give up many things entirely.

And I am sure that the people in every part of the Nation are prepared in their individual living to win this war. I am sure that they will cheerfully help to pay a large part of its financial cost while it goes on. I am sure they will cheerfully give up those material things that they are asked to give up.

And I am sure that they will retain all those great spiritual things without which we cannot win through.

I repeat that the United States can accept no result save victory, final and complete. Not only must the shame of Japanese treachery be wiped out, but the sources of international brutality, wherever they exist, must be absolutely and finally broken.

In my message to the Congress yesterday I said that we "will make it very certain that this form of treachery shall never again endanger us." In order to achieve that certainty, we must begin the great task that is before us by abandoning once and for all the illusion that we can ever again isolate ourselves from the rest of humanity.

In these past few years- and, most violently, in the past three days- we have learned a terrible lesson.

It is our obligation to our dead—it is our sacred obligation' to their children and to our children-that we must never forget what we have learned.

And what we all have learned is this:

There is no such thing as security for any Nation—or any individual- in a world ruled by the principles of gangsterism.

There is no such thing as impregnable defense against powerful aggressors who sneak up in the dark and strike without warning.

We have learned that our ocean-girt hemisphere is not immune from severe attack—that we cannot measure our safety in terms of miles on any map any more.

We may acknowledge that our enemies have performed a brilliant feat of deception, perfectly timed and executed with great skill. It was a thoroughly dishonorable deed, but we must face the fact that modern warfare as conducted in the Nazi manner is a dirty business. We don't like it- we didn't want to get in it -but we are in it and we're going to fight it with everything we've got.

I do not think any American has any doubt of our ability to administer proper punishment to the perpetrators of these crimes.

Your Government knows that for weeks Germany has been telling Japan that if Japan did not attack the United States, Japan would not share in dividing the spoils with Germany when peace came. She was promised by Germany that if she came in she would receive the complete and perpetual control of the whole of the Pacific area—and that means not only the Far East, but also all of the islands in the Pacific, and also a stranglehold on the west coast of North, Central, and South America.

We know also that Germany and Japan are conducting their military and naval operations in accordance with a joint plan. That plan considers all peoples and Nations which are not helping the Axis powers as common enemies of each and every one of the Axis powers.

That is their simple and obvious grand strategy. And that is why the American people must realize that it can be matched only with similar grand strategy. We must realize for example that Japanese successes against the United States in the Pacific are helpful to German operations in Libya; that any German success against the Caucasus is inevitably an assistance to Japan in her operations against the Dutch East Indies; that a German attack against Algiers or Morocco opens the way to a German attack against South America, and the Canal.

On the other side of the picture, we must learn also to know that guerrilla warfare against the Germans in, let us say, Serbia or Norway helps us; that a successful Russian offensive against the Germans helps us; and that British successes on land or sea in any part of the world strengthen our hands.

Remember always that Germany and Italy, regardless of any formal declaration of war, consider themselves at war with the United States at this moment just as much as they consider themselves at war with Britain or Russia. And Germany puts all the other Republics of the Americas into the same category of enemies. The people of our sister Republics of this hemisphere can 'be honored by that fact.

The true goal we seek is far above and beyond the ugly field of battle. When we resort to force, as now we must, we are determined that this force shall be directed toward ultimate good as well as against immediate evil. We Americans are not destroyers —we are builders.

We are now in the midst of a war, not for conquest, not for vengeance, but for a world in which this Nation, and all that this Nation represents, will be safe for our children. We expect to eliminate the danger from Japan, but it would serve us ill if we accomplished that and found that the rest of the world was dominated by Hitler and Mussolini.

We are going to win the war and we are going to win the peace that follows.

And in the difficult hours of this day—through dark days that may be yet to come- we will know that the vast majority of the members of the human race are on our side. Many of them are fighting with us. All of them are praying for us. For in representing our cause, we represent theirs as well- our hope and their hope for liberty under God.

Prime Minister Curtin of Australia also addressed his nation, terming the events his nation's "darkest hour".  Unlike the US, Australia had already been a declared belligerent in the war against Germany.  The arrival of the war with Japan put Australia in an extreme position of disadvantage as it had substantial troops numbers serving in the Middle East already.

Some person apparently undeterred by the news or not inspired by patriotism in the wake of the Japanese attacks robbed a payroll train at Yanderra, New South Wales, Australia.

It was a day of additional set backs and attacks, and expansion of the war, as detailed in Today In Wyoming's History: December 9: 

1941 China declared war on Japan, Germany and Italy. 

Hitler ordered US ships torpedoed. 

The 19th Bombardment Group attacks Japanese ships off the coast of Vigan, Luzon. 

USS Swordfish (SS-193) makes initial U.S. submarine attack on Japanese ship. 

Canadian government orders blackouts and closes Japanese-Canadian newspapers and schools. 

China declares war on Japan, after nine years of "incidents". They were, of course, already at war.

Cuba, Guatemala, the Philippine Commonwealth, and the Provisional Government of the Republic of Korea also declare war on Japan. Korea, of course, is already occupied by Japan. 

Japanese troops from Kwajalein occupy Tarawa in the Gilberts. 

Japanese bomb Nichols Field on Luzon. Japanese capture Khota Baru airfield on Malaya. 

Siam agrees to a cease fire with Japan, signaling an early defeat there. 

Japanese ground forces attack across the frontier of the New Territories into Hong Kong; capture the key position of Shing Mun Redoubt; 

D Company of The Winnipeg Grenadiers dispatched to the mainland to strengthen this sector.

Expanding on that, the Japanese occupied Bangkok, Thailand.  British Indian troops crossed the Thai frontier to destroy railroad lines but met resistance from Thai police units and then the Japanese.

The Prince of Wales and Repulse were turned back by the Japanese discovering their whereabouts off of Malaya.  An effort of Japanese torpedo bombers station in Saigon to find and attack the failed, however.

The German Navy lost sank two merchant ships in the Battle of the Atlantic.  In the Mediterranean, the appearance of aircraft from Malta turned back an Axis convoy with supplies for the Axis mission in North Africa.

The Germans lost ground in Russia as the  Red Army recaptured Yelets and Venev, south of Moscow, and Tikhvin, near Leningrad.

British commandos raided Florø, Norway, in an inconclusive raid.  It's become common to think of these raids as universally successful, but that's far from true.  Indeed, British Commando raids were often unsuccessful and, at least in this period, a little messed up. This one featured some accidental deaths due to a hand grenade detonating while they were being fused.

A photographer took a photo of the damaged Catholic Church in Tobruk.  Services were still being held there.

At least as of 2017, this church was still serving a Catholic population in the town.

The U.S. experienced its first East Coast air raid drills.  Businesses and schools were cleared out in a practice drill.

Newspapers across the country reported that San Francisco had been raided ineffectively, which local commanders of the U.S. Army confirmed.

Early in the war this sort of false alarm was common on the jittery Pacific Coast.  It has been the subject of a somewhat amusing move, 1941.

Bob Feller of the Cleveland Indians was one of the thousands of men who joined the service this week.  He joined the Navy.

Additional information on this day in World War Two.

Day 831 December 9, 1941

A final Republic of China/People's Republic of China Showdown? Weighing the costs and benefits from a Red Chinese prospective. Part II

Flag of the Republic of Formosa, which existed for only a few months in 1895. By Jeff Dahl - Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=3550776

But why, you may ask, would the Chinese risk such a move?

The answer to that would have to be found in the answer to the question, why do nations start wars?  And the answer to that is much more difficult to answer than we might suppose.

First, let's look at the risk v. the benefits to the People's Republic of China invading Taiwan.

The most obvious part of the answer to that question would be the one a wag would give. Red China would get Taiwan. But Taiwan in and of itself is obviously not the goal.

Nations do invade other nations simply for territorial gain, although that has become increasingly uncommon since World War Two.  Indeed, now it's very rare, and frankly it's been fairly rare since 1945.  When nations invade another country, if we assume that the Chinese view Taiwan as another country (and they don't, really) there's always more to it.  Indeed, the Second World War saw most of the real outright land grabs by aggressor states.  The last one I can really think of since World War Two was the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in 1990, which had that feature.

Given that, for the most part when nations, post 1945, invade another, they have some claim of some sort to the territory they're seeking to incorporate.  Indeed, this was the case prior to 1945 as well, and a few of the minor aggressor states in the Second World War entered the war on the Axis side with this goal themselves.  Romanian sought, for example, to incorporate Moldova, which it borders and which is ethnically Romanian.  They went further than that, charged up with aggressor greed, but that was their primary goal.  Finland, which went into the "Continuation War" without greed, provides another example, and they actually stopped once they had reoccupied what they'd lost the prior year, not even going further and taking all the ethnically Finnish lands that they could have.  

That provides clue here really.  What the Chinese would really get is the Chinese population of Taiwan combined with the island and its strategic value, and the Republic of China's industrial base.

Okay, what of those.

Well, that may all be fairly illusory.

We'll start with the islands strategic position.  It's real. . . but not as real as it once was.

Taiwan, or Formosa if you prefer, is a major Western Pacific island and all the really big Western Pacific Islands have traditionally been island bastions.  Japan was an island bastion nation in and of itself, and it really still is.  The Philippines were an American bastion, although one that fell fairly rapid.  Taiwan was a  Chinese bastion, then a Japanese bastion, then a Nationalist Chinese bastion.

Or was it.

We noted the other day that Japan secured Taiwan as a result of the First Sino-Japanese War. At that time, Taiwan really made sense as a Japanese possession, even if that result was not just.  It provided a large island landmass off of China which gave it a base to protect its interests in China, or to mess with China if it wanted to, and it wanted to.

But, by 1941, its utility had diminished.  The United STates considered invading Taiwan rather than the Philippines in its advance toward the Japanese home islands, but it didn't.  That's partially due to political considerations, but it was partially as we didn't need to. That didn't mean, however, that the Japanese needed to quit defending it. They had to garrison it right until the end of the war.

And the Philippines themselves were abandoned by the US after the Vietnam War.  We just didn't need a base there anymore.  An American military commitment to the Philippines quietly remains, but it serves in a nearly clandestine way in an ongoing war against radical Muslim elements in the country.

The modern aircraft carrier, from the American point of view, made the Philippines unnecessary to us.

China doesn't have modern carriers. . . like ours. . .yet, but it's working on them.  But the real strategic value of the islands to China is that they're in the way.  If China was to get into a war with the United States, Formosa would be an American base against it, or at least we can presume so.  And it would be difficult for Chinese forces in the region to avoid it.  So, oddly enough, it might have what essentially amounts to a negative strategic value to China.  I.e., if they're thinking they're likely to fight the US, they need to grab it.

But that probably doesn't provide the motivation for grabbing the island, as China likely knows that the only way it gets into a war with the US is by providing one itself, such as by attacking Taiwan.

So what about Taiwan's industrial base?

Well, Taiwan does have an advanced economy.  It's more advanced than Red China's in fact.  That might be tempting, but in reality it surely isn't a consideration.  China's vastness and large-scale command economy enterprises really don't need Taiwan's more advanced corporate free market industries, and indeed, there'd be no guaranty that a war to seize Taiwan, or the Taiwanese themselves, might not wreck them.  And frankly, taking in millions of Chinese who have worked in a Western economy into a Communist command economy would be unlikely to go really smoothly.  That actually provides us with a clue as to why the Chinese might invade, actually, which we'll get to in a moment.

China would get the Taiwanese Chinese, many of whom had ancestors who left mainland China in 1948, together with those Chinese who left in 1948, or since. That's what they want, combined with lands that have been historically governed by China.

That may seem odd.  China doesn't have a deficit of people. But ethnic reunification has been a driving factor of wars over history and it's been particularly strong since 1918.  A lengthy post World War One period saw multiple border wars and invasions that were over nothing other than ethnicity.  Nations that had been imperial possessions fought to be independent single ethnicity nation states.  Nations with messy ethnic boundaries slugged it out in the 1920s over who got to rule those areas.  The first moves of Nazi Germany in 1938 and 1939 were excused by the Germans on this basis, although outright colonial and genocidal invasions followed, which were on a completely different basis.  

Since World War Two China has grabbed territory that what not Chinese, ethnically.  But here, its primary motivations are to accomplish that goal, reunification, and to assuage Chinese pride.  Taiwan is Chinese, in the PRC's mind, and they have a right to it.  That's the justification.

But is a justification upon which they're likely to act?

It certainly wouldn't be cost free.

Besides being involved in a war with the Republic of China, invading Taiwan obviously will provoke some sort of international reaction, and China knows that.

In recent years China has abandoned the Stalinist command economy model that it had for decades following 1948, complete with murder on a mass scale, and gone towards more of a command economy NEP model  It may have done that in part as it was a witness to the Stalinist model crashing in the late 1980s when the USSR found that it had run its course, and it was too late to adapt.  Chances are high that the NEP model will do the same, but the NEP model of Communism, being gentler and allowing for more liberty, if still falling far short of the Capitalist model, will forestall that for a while and probably has convinced the leaders of the Chinese Communist Party that they have a chance of avoiding its fall altogether.

If China invades Taiwan, however, they'll face an economic disruption at a bare minimum.

However, based on their observations of the West and how little it really does in this area, they may simply not really believe it.  Russia has managed to survive sanctions, for example. And the Chinese know that they're such a big part of the world's economy that they may feel that, for the most part, sanctions will simply be lip service.

And frankly, they'd have reason to believe that.

If they were wrong, however, it would be economically devastating.  And economics being what they are, China might not recover for decades, if ever.  Manufacturing might simply shift to the south and leave China with a massively failing market.  If so, it'd revert to Stalinism by default, if it could.

And it might not be cost free militarily.  

China certainly is building up its military, to be sure, but any invasion of the island would be bloody.  It might be really bloody if the United States intervened on Taiwan's behalf, which it very well would likely do.  Indeed, even with a limited strategic goal, it might be a rampaging naval failure which would send thousands of Chinese soldiers and sailors to a watery grave, and leave many more stranded on Taiwan in one way or another while the Republic of China cut them apart.  And a military failure on China's part would have long reaching implications of all sorts, including diplomatic, military and economic.

And even if it was successful, the primary achievement would be to take in 24,000,000 Chinese who have grown up and participated in a free market democratic state and who would be massively disgruntled in a Red Chinese one.  The Red Chinese have't seen the Chinese of Hong Kong, 7,000,000 in number, go quietly into the night even though there's nearly nothing they can do about the government in Beijing.

All that would be problematic enough, but there's already discontent in China itself.  The events of 1989 in Tiananmen Square showed that the young Chinese middle class isn't thrilled with their country's autocratic Communist government, and it also showed that elements of sympathy with students had crept into the Chinese Army.  Indeed, as the Chinese Army's makeup is regional in character, the Chinese had to bring in army units from outside the region to suppress the demonstrations. This ended up creating a sort of odd resistance movement in the form of the Fulun Gong, which is ongoing and which operates now partially out of the US, publishing the right wing propaganda newspaper for an American audience, The Epic Times (which absurdly claims that everything was nifty prior to 1948).

So the net result would be, best case scenario, to take in 25,000,000 new people who would be opposed to your reign in every fashion in exchange for an island that you only really need if you intend to be aggressive somewhere else, in a pre aircraft carrier naval fashion.  The worst result would be a bloody defeat that leaves the nation embarrassed and an international pariah.

So why do it?

Well, for a reason that has nothing to do with much of the above.

Lots of wars were fought after World War One solely on the question of whose nation a scrap of territory would be in.  The Poles fought to unite to newly established Poland territories that were Polish, or which had been at one time.  The Turks briefly tried to expand the border of Turkey into ancestral Turkish homelands.  Many other examples exist.  All of these are the flipside of national independence movements.  We're used to the concept of, for example, the Irish wanting to be free of the United Kingdom, but we don't often stop to think that this impulse isn't also what drives desires to do something like unite Ulster to the Irish state, even though it has a large non Irish population.  It's comparable to the Polish independence movements that existed during World War One which spilled out into wars and proxy wars after independence to secure territory that was Polish or had been.  Nations risk all to engage in that impulse.

And the Chinese government in Beijing is proud, wounded, and arrogant.

It's pride and history leave it convinced that it must take back all that was once Chinese, and that may be enough to cause it to act.

And its arrogance may be sufficient to override any concerns that the West would act. Recent history suggest that belief would not be irrational, although history also suggests that at some point, the reaction sets in.  Nobody helped the Czechs keep the Sudetenland in 1938. . . but when it came to Poland. . .

And history suggest that this impulse has a time element to it as well, which may motivate the Chinese to act.  People retain long memories, stretching back centuries, of their ethnicity. . . until suddenly they don't.

Lots of example of this abound.  All the Scandinavian people were at one time one people, but by the Renaissance they were no longer thinking of themselves that way and fought wars against each other in order to be ruled by one another.  At some point the Norwegians and Swedes simply weren't one people, even though they retain a mutually intelligible language now.  The Estonians and Finns were once one people as well, and then weren't. The connection is sufficiently close that Finnish volunteers came to fight for Estonia in its war of independence against Soviet Russia, but they didn't become one state.  The Scots were Irish early in their history, but don't conceive of themselves in that fashion at all now.  The Dutch were a Germanic people from the "far lands", but they've long had their own identity and don't think of themselves as German.  The Portuguese were Spanish at one time, but don't want to be part of Spain, and the Catalonians are Spanish, but don't want to think of themselves that way.

Going into perhaps more analogous examples, when Germany reunited following the collapse of the Communism in the West, the process was not only rocky, but some East Germans have never really accommodated themselves to it and some West Germans continue to look down on them.  Ethnic Germans from elsewhere, still eligible to enter the country under its law of return, have been completely foreign to Germans from Germany who have been shocked by them.

And up close and personal, young South Koreans are very quickly reaching the point that they don't want to reunite with the North, long a dream of the government in Seoul, as North Koreans now are more or less an alien Korean-speaking people.

At some point the Chinese in Beijing may start worrying about that.  It's already the case that the government in Taipei no longer claim the right to rule on the mainland.  Have they started thinking of themselves as a Chinese other? After all, there's more than one Chinese culture. . .why not add one more. . . one with its own state?

Keeping that from happening may be a Communist Chinese priority, and not for economic or even territorial reasons.

A final Republic of China/People's Republic of China Showdown? Part I.

第二帝国 (The Second Reich). China Channels Kaiser Wilhelm II and Enters The Turn Of The Prior Century.

From the German reunification in 1870 up into World War One Germany, a continental power seeking to enter the colonial game just as the game was ending the pieces were starting to spill on the floor, built an aggressive navy and acted like a spoiled brat baby towards all its neighbors.

Enter China, the new Second Reich, adopted whole from the prior one, with all its vices.

Let's hope that the inevitable Chinese fall doesn't involve the same process that the Imperial German one did.

And the People Republic of China will fall.  It's only a question of when.

In the meantime, while we're diverted in self absorption of all kinds, China, looking out at us, has concluded that 1) we're so distracted that this is a good time to mess around aggressively in the region and 2) Western society is probably in its "late stage" anyhow and can't muster the strength to throw a rock at a rabbit.

So, in recent weeks its pretty much declared the intent to put an end to Hong Kong's temporary autonomy.  That was going to come to an end in the distant future anyway, but the thought was at the time that the British arranged for this one country, two systems, solution that China would be an adult nation by that time. Now that's over and the Chinese do not believe that anyone is going to do anything about that, and they might well be right.

China has also been militarily demonstrating against Taiwan, or "Nationalist China", which they of course view as theirs.  The U.S. has been demonstrating back, which as been mostly missed by the news, focused on us as it is.

And now the Chinese are acting aggressively against India.

The US military has been taken note of this, and the Marine Corps is preparing for war with China, something again largely missed by the press.  This should all be taken extremely seriously, to say the least There's no sign that the Chinese Communist government is going to change its amplified behavior and that behavior will result in just one thing, sooner or later. That thing can be deterred or joined, depending upon when it occurs.  We best be paying attention.

Sunday, April 4, 1914. Sad Sunday in Newfoundland, Newfoundlander reaches Siberian Coast.

Crowds gathered at St. John's, Newfoundland, to meet the SS Bellaventure as it brought back the dead and injured from its disastrous experience of several days prior.

Bartlett

Captain Robert Bartlett and Katakovik of the Canadian Arctic Expedition reached the Siberian coast after weeks of searching for the other members of the expedition that had departed the Wrangle Island camped.  They followed sled tracks that lead them to a Chukchi village where they were given food and shelter.

Bartlett was a Newfoundlander.

Merchant fisherman Baba Gurdit Singh chartered the Japanese vessel Komagata Maru to pick up 165 British Indian passengers in Hong Kong for a voyage to Vancouver, in defiance of Canadian exclusion laws.

German-born lumber giant Friedrich (Frederick) Weyerhäuser died at age 79 in California.

Last prior edition:

Thursday, April 2, 1914 Villista victory at Torreón, Disaster on the ice, Cumann na mBan, birth of Alec Guiness.

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