South Korean M48s. There are large numbers of these and M60s that are upgradable to a state sufficiently advanced to take on the Russian armor. The Ukrainians should be given them. I'm not the only one to suggest this.
A new year, a new thread, for new and old wars and rumors of war.
I posted the photograph above from 1986 to make a point, one that I was making I thought alone for a while, but now I've seen elsewhere.
The US has vast quantifies of mid Cold War era material that is still useful and could still go overseas to aid Ukraine. This equipment was built to fight the Soviets, just as the junky stuff the Russians use was built to fight us. It may not be our current standard, but it's there and if we're not going to use it now, we probably never will, unless we fear that a ground war with China is imminent and will be so bad, we'll need this stuff.
Having said that, by this point, Ukraine is well on its way toward having much more modern equipment, both in the form of latest generation Russian captured equipment, and material that NATO has supplied.
If Ukraine is going to win this war, in my view, at this point, it needs to launch a successful winter campaign and that's going to be equipment consuming. Moreover, in order to get Russia to the negotiating table, at this point, I think they'll need to recapture all of their lost territory and enter Russia's Rostov Oblast and advance to the Don.
January 1, 2023.
Russo-Ukrainian War
Vladimir Putin's New Year's address indicated no sign of a willingness to negotiate with Ukraine, while President Zelenskyy's praised his people for their stalwart defense of their country. There is no reason to believe that the war will end soon, or that Russia is ready to give up in spite of its battlefield defeats. Indeed, irrespective of them, it has not exhausted its resources and, with no real democratic input into the war, Putin can afford to keep it running.
Ukraine can afford to keep it running as well, as long as the West remains in its corner. With the U.S. Congress turning over and Republicans taking control of the House, there's some reason to believe that things will get more difficult for Ukraine. In the Senate, Mitch McConnell has been a strong backer of Ukraine. Ukraine lost a strong backer in Liz Cheney, and the new crop of Republicans includes many of the Trumpist isolationist strain who set the US on the road to retreat in Afghanistan. So far, self-declared Republican Kevin McCarthy has pledged to keep backing Ukraine, but to keep a more careful eye on the assets going there, showing McCarthy's knack for spitting the baby, maybe. For that matter, McCarthy may not be ascending to the lofty heights he's been aiming for.
Republicans barely control the House, of course, and not all Republicans are isolationist or Trumpists.
January 5, 2023.
Ukraine is claiming that Russia has sustained 10,000 combat deaths in the last two weeks, a remarkable figure if true.
Russia has deployed new ship launched missiles to the Atlantic.
Putin has declared a ceasefire for Orthodox Christmas. Orthodox Christmas is on January 7. Interestingly, in Ukraine, the country generally celebrates Christmas on the Gregorian Calendar, which of course has already occurred, with the Orthodox celebrating the religious holiday on the Julian Calendar, which this year is on January 7. The Russian ceasefire declaration is interesting in that one of the declared purposes of the Russian invasion was to defend Orthodoxy, and the dual nature of the Ukrainian celebration somewhat demonstrates its drift to the West. Of course, Catholic Ukrainians already celebrate the religious and civil holiday on the same day.
January 6, 2023
Kyiv rejected Putin's proposal for a truce over Orthodox Christmas.
France is sending AMX-10s to Ukraine. Contrary to the way this tends to be reported, they are not tanks, but very heavy armored cars. They are also a fully modern weapon, so their provision as an armored fighting vehicle is significant.
January 8, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
The war has oddly begun to resemble the First World War in some ways, with localized actions that measure success in feet and yards, rather than miles.
The Russians, deploying the mercenary Wagner Group, have been struggling to take Bakhmut which some Ukrainian sources reported as surrounded yesterday. ISW, which is highly reliable, reports that it is not. Indeed, they reported the claim as "bizarre".
Iran
While continuing to suffer a state of near internal insurrection, Iran continues to project its power outwards. Here's an interesting development:
January 9, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
The Russians claimed to hit and cause casualties on a Ukrainian training facility yesterday, in retaliation for the Ukrainian hit of a building used by Russians that killed at least 89 Russian soldiers.
This is an example of the bizarrely petulant and childish attitude that the Russians have had throughout this war, in which they complain about actions taken by their enemy that are well within the law of war. Explaining this is difficult.
January 10, 2023
Fierce fighting is occurring between Ukrainian forces and Wagner mercenaries near Soledar and Bakhmut. Wagner is promoting their role in this, but while they are in fact fighting well, for very limited objectives, they're taking massive casualties.
January 12, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
The Russians are engaging in high level command shakeups.
There is speculation that shakeups are occurring as Putin is dissatisfied with results, as he should be, but is doubling down on his view that Ukraine can be taken by force. If this is correct, and there's good reason to believe that it is, the war is nowhere near close to being concluded and a major Russian spring offensive will be attempted.
There's also speculation that a serious struggle is going on inside Russian circles over the role of the Wagner group, which is pushing, much like the SS did during World War Two, to achieve official status as an "elite" Russian unit, rather than a mercenary group. Not surprisingly, the Russian army doesn't like this possibility, while the Wagner Group is angling for it, in part by popularizing its ongoing bloody operations.
Regarding that, those operations appear to explain the recruiting from jails done by the mercenary organization earlier. These troops are being used like German and Soviet penal formations were in World War Two, with their purpose to sap enemy strength at the likely cost of their own lives. Ukrainians noted earlier their high death rate and, among those captured, how many had serious diseases such as AIDS. Their combat survivability likely is irrelevant to the Russians, as they're using up Ukrainian munitions. This may be true to some degree of hastily deployed conscripts as well, although the Russians have to be more careful about them.
Mali
Fourteen Malian soldiers were killed and 11 wounded in two attacks in regions where Al-Qaeda aligned forces are operative.
January 13, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
The Russians took Soledar yesterday.
Update:
Coat of arms for Soledar
How big of a city is that?
Well, it had a population of about 10,000 before the war. It's known for its former salt mine, which was apparently large, and there's some fear that the mine could be of use for infiltration. Chances are that the mine is mined.
January 15, 2022
Russo Ukrainian War
By Photo: Cpl Russ Nolan RLC/MOD, OGL v1.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=26907562
The UK will be supplying Challenger 2 tanks, a fully modern western, third generation, main battle tank, to Ukraine.
The initial number is only 12, which isn't enough to do anything with, but presumably it will end up being more than that. Ukraine has been asking for modern Western tanks for months.
Russian forces staged in Belarus rocketed targets in Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast and then later launched sea-based Kalibr, and Kh-59 guided air missiles.
I wasn't aware that Belarus was allowing its territory to be used in this fashion. This presents an added complication for Ukraine as while it now hits Russian targets in Russia, Russia is also using Belorussian territory for missile attacks.
January 16, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
It's now widely expected that Russia will be launching a new large-scale conventional offensive.
This means that a type of race is now on, with the obvious one being can the Western nations sufficiently arm and train Ukraine to stave off a new Russian offensive which it must be presumed will be very large and much less inept than the original one, which Russia launched believing that its efforts couldn't fail.
Russia can't afford to lose the next one.
The second race, maybe, might be for Ukraine to launch an offensive first. If Russia has to commit to the defense before it can launch an offensive, it might hold that offensive off and cause an already damaged Putin administration more trouble.
January 19, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Germany, having moved up, again, to the brink of allowing nations with surplus Leopard 2 tanks, or making use of its own surplus, has pulled back again.
Time and time again, Germany has indicated that it was considering or about to provide or allow Leopard 2s to go to Ukraine, only to back out. This seems to have occurred again, as it's now indicating that it will provide Leopard 2s if the US provides M1 Abrams tanks.
There is a certain logic to this, but it's also done knowing that the US is unlikely to provide Abrams tanks to Ukraine. Symbolically, it's probably a bridge too far for the US as the Abrams is generally regarded as the most advanced tank in the world and one that was designed to take on and defeat Soviet armor in a largescale war. In other worlds, it comes a bit too close to the US nearly being in the war itself, and Germany knows this.
Having said this, Leopard 2s were built for the same purpose. And so were Challenger 2s, the latter of which is probably every bit as good as the Abrams.
The Leopard 2 isn't, which presents its own problems. There's been some speculation that Germany hasn't provided the tank as it will show that Germany's think skinned armor thesis which influenced German tank designs post World War Two was wrong, because it was wrong. In combat with Russian tanks it may well prove to be inferior, in least in terms of crew protection.
This does bring up, again, the M60s (and maybe M48s). The last variant of the M60 was a very modern tanks and it would be relatively easy to upgrade the massive number of M60s and supply them to Ukraine. A counter proposal could be made to supply something like 500 M60s if the Germans spring the Leopard 2s. Of course, this isn't what Ukraine is seeking, as they want the most modern variant of main battle tank.
January 21, 2023
Russia has installed air defense systems in Moscow.
Ukraine is not going to attack Moscow, so the question is whether this is a species of extreme cautiousness, paranoia, or theater.
January 23, 2023
Leopard 2 tank.
Under a tremendous amount of pressure, Germany has indicated it will not preclude Poland from shipping Leopard 2s to Ukraine.
Over the weekend a member of Congress urged the U.S. to supply M1 Abrams to Ukraine, stating that modern armor would be necessary to take on an anticipated Russian offensive this winter. This may indicate a move towards supplying Ukraine with M1s.
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M1 Abrams.
January 24, 2023
From the New York Times:
The U.S. plans to send
M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine, officials said, a big step in arming Kyiv in its
efforts to seize back territory from Russia.
|
|
Tuesday,
January 24, 2023 5:40 PM ET |
|
The White
House is expected to announce a decision as early as Wednesday, said the
officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity. One official said the number
of Abrams tanks could be between 30 and 50. |
Janaury 25, 2023
The dam appears to have broken and now Germany will be sending Leopard 2s to Ukraine. Poland will follow.
Western analysits attribute the slow provision of heavy weapons to Ukraine as a major factor that is keeping Ukraine from defeating Russia.
We seem to have reached a new point in the war. Now, that has changed.
January 26, 2023
Thirty one.
That's the number of M1 Abrams tanks that the U.S. promised to Ukraine. Only around 14 Leopard 2s are going to be sent by Germany, and 80 by other European allies. The British are sending 12 Challengers.
Ukraine asked for 300 modern main battle tanks.
A combined total of a little under 140 won't cut it, particularly of mixed models, and the M1s won't be delivered for months, most likely well after the anticipated Russian spring offensive.
We have thousands of idle M60s that can upgraded. We could likely provide over 300 M60A3s within weeks, some within days.
Send the M60s.
There are reports that the Wagner Group may take punitive action against its own members for retreating in battle, with at least one report that they castrated a soldier for doing so.
January 26, 2023, cont
The US indicated today that it does not have the spare inventory to send M1A2 from its own stocks, so apparently the Ukrainian ones will be new General Dynamics production.
Ukraine may not have the time to spare.
We should; 1) take 50 out of our own stocks. We're not going to be going to war, no matter how cautious we may feel we need to be, and 2) we should send 500 M60s.
The M60s could be there soon.
January 27, 2023
Somalia
Al Shabaab achieved a major tactical victory in central Somalia, taking a base used by US-trained special forces.
Also in the country, U.S. Special forces killed ISIL leader Bilal al Sudani in a raid.
January 27, 2023, cont.
Russo Ukrainian War
In a statement that can only charitably be referred to as bizarre, former President Donald Trump tweeted, or whatever it is called on "Truth Social" that if he were President he could end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours. A Russian spokesman, taking the position that he could "instruct" Kyiv on what to do, endorsed the statement.
I think it can be safely assumed that Trump would not have intervened to save Ukraine, and would not now. He clearly cannot "instruct" it to do anything.
Statements like this should cause people to wonder about the level of narcissism the former President displays and cannot help, at least in some quarters, cause speculation on why Trump is so in love with Putin. It is, truly, bizarre.
January 29, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
The Russians reported took 5,000 combat deaths last week.
At this point, it appears that they're relieving the Wagner Group, which has been engaged at Bakhmut in high casualty attacks. Russian airborne is apparently replacing the mercenary troops.
Ukrainian sources report that 300 Wagner Group wounded were taken to a hospital in Yuvlineyvy but they were refused treatment due to having AIDs, syphilis, tuberculosis and pneumonia. Of the 50,000 Wagner recruits from prisons, only 10,000 now remain, the rest having been killed, wounded or deserted. Just a couple of weeks ago there was serious speculation that the Wagner Group would supplant the Army in some fashion, much like the SA tried to do with the pre-war German Heer, but now it appears it's basically being pulled from combat, although it may have served its purpose by being a sponge for Ukrainian munitions.
The Russians have been making small gains.
Ukraine has asked for long range missiles, which would clearly express an intent to hit targets inside of Russia.
North Korea declared the US promise to deliver M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine an "unethical crime", which begs the question of what an "ethical" crime would be.
January 29, cont:
Iran
Iranian drone manufacturing facilities were hit. . . by drones.
Nobody has taken responsibility but it seems certain they were Israel carried out the attacks. Iran is claiming there was no damage which means there was damage.
Ukraine did a little gloating over this, which is merited.
January 31, 2023
Pakistan
A sucide bombing killeed 59 people, mostly police officers, in Peshwar. It was not immediately apparent who was responsible. The Taliban claimed responsiblity at first, and then denied responsibility.
Israel-Iran
Israel hit Iranian backed militia targets in Syria on January 29 and 30 in air strikes.
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