March 6, 2022
The Russo Ukrainian War
The world is now one week into the invasion, slightly less.
Yesterday was the day of the MANPAD with Russian airpower having a very bad day.
A marked part of the war so far is the complete Russian failure to obtain air superiority, something most observers thought they'd achieve on day one. While the Ukrainians have been pleading for NATO to establish a no-fly zone, something that would immediately expand this war into a general war with the west, and which accordingly will not happen, they are in fact doing much better in the air, and against the air, than remotely anticipated.
The ceasefire at Mariupol did not occur, with the Russians immediately violating it. This city supposedly fell to the Russians a couple of days ago, but it obviously has not.
Russian forces have actually lost or ceded control of territory they recently occupied in the northeast, while also gaining ground in a new offensive in the east. All in all, they control no more territory than they did two days ago.
Their advance in the south appears to be stalled or halted.
Another Russian Major General, Vitaly Gerasimov, was killed in combat, this time near Kharkiv. This is the second Russian officer holding that rank to die in the war. For those not familiar with ranks, this is the equivalent to three stars in the U.S. Army, a very senior rank.
The fact that general officers are dying in combat is telling regarding the overall situation. In spite of some individuals who will act as apologist for the Russian forces, with the Russian invasion force now 100% committed, the Russian Army is proving to be lousy. The sheer number of tanks that have been photographed by Ukrainian forces that they've knocked out of action is stunning. The US didn't lose any tanks in action during the wars against Iraq.
We noted this, of course, in a recent post, part of which read:
Whatever a person thinks of the Red Army of the Second World War, in many ways ever since then the Red Army/Russian Army just hasn't been all that good. Its NCO corps has always been lacking, and was during World War Two. Its training is brutal, which ostensibly created tough troops, but it might have made for a lot of disincentivized troops. And, a few good pieces of equipment, such as the AK47/AKM, and the Mig15 (their air force of course, not their army), but most of their equipment was behind the times or not all that. Indeed, their armor and aircraft was consistently overrated throughout the entire Cold War, with the West finding excuses for why the stuff we acquired in the Third World couldn't possibly be the first-rate Russian stuff. It was, it was just bad.
Anonymous hacked Russian TV and streaming services with live footage of the war in Ukraine.
Photos of the war show a lot of western made anti tank missiles now in Ukrainian hands. A photo also showed Belgian FNC assault rifles having reached there, the Belgian government having shipped 3,000 of the 5.56 NATO rifles to Ukraine. Ukraine retained the use of Soviet pattern weapons running up to the war which has been a supply problem to some degree as their weapons are, obviously, do not use NATO standard ammunition.
March 8, cont:
The United States is going to announce today that it's banning the import of Russian oil.
March 8, cont:
Yikes.
Open Letter Calling for Limited No-Fly Zone
We, the undersigned, urge the Biden administration, together with NATO allies, to impose a limited No-Fly Zone over Ukraine starting with protection for humanitarian corridors that were agreed upon in talks between Russian and Ukrainian officials on Thursday. NATO leaders should convey to Russian officials that they do not seek direct confrontation with Russian forces, but they must also make clear that they will not countenance Russian attacks on civilian areas.
Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine has caused massive devastation and loss of life for Ukrainians. His premeditated, unprovoked and unjustified war of aggression has created the greatest crisis on the European continent since the end of World War II. Despite the truly heroic efforts by Ukrainian soldiers and average citizens to resist the marauding Russian forces, Putin’s military is poised for further attacks on major cities, including the capital Kyiv. Targeting residential buildings, hospitals and government complexes, as well as nuclear power plants, Russian forces will be responsible for an even higher death toll.
The international community has responded swiftly through an unprecedented array of sanctions and a significant increase in lethal military assistance to help Ukraine defend itself. But more must be done to prevent more widescale casualties and a potential bloodbath.
President Biden and NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg have stated that neither the United States nor NATO will engage Russian forces on the ground in Ukraine. What we seek is the deployment of American and NATO aircraft not in search of confrontation with Russia but to avert and deter Russian bombardment that would result in massive loss of Ukrainian lives. This is in addition to the request from Ukrainian leaders for A-10 and MIG-29 aircraft to help Ukrainians defend themselves, which we also strongly support.
Already more than a million Ukrainians have fled their country to escape the brutality Putin has unleashed. Estimates suggest that that number could reach 5 million, more than 10 percent of the population. Several thousand Ukrainians have already died from Putin’s latest aggression, on top of the more than 14,000 killed following Putin’s first invasion of Ukraine starting in 2014. Ukraine is facing a severe humanitarian disaster, and the effects are being felt across the European continent and beyond.
The refrain “never again” emerged in the wake of the Holocaust, and Ukrainians are wondering whether that pledge applies to them. It is time for the United States and NATO to step up their help for Ukrainians before more innocent civilians fall victim to Putin’s murderous madness. Ukrainians are courageously defending their country and their freedom, but they need more help from the international community. A U.S.- NATO enforced No-Fly Zone to protect humanitarian corridors and additional military means for Ukrainian self-defense are desperately needed, and needed now.
(Note: Affiliations are for identification purposes only; individuals are signing in their personal capacity.)
1. Anders Aslund, Senior Fellow, Stockholm Free World Forum
2. Stephen Blank, Senior Fellow/Foreign Policy Research Institute
3. Gen. (Ret.) Philip Breedlove, Former Supreme Allied Commander Europe
4. Paula Dobriansky, Former Under Secretary of State for Global Affairs
5. Eric S. Edelman, Former Under Secretary of Defense
6. Evelyn Farkas, Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Russia, Ukraine, Eurasia
7. Daniel Fried, Former Assistant Secretary of State and U.S. Ambassador to Poland
8. Andrew J. Futey, President, Ukrainian Congress Committee of America
9. Melinda Haring, Deputy Director, Atlantic Council Eurasia Center
10. John Herbst, Former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine
11. LtG (Ret.) Ben Hodges, Former Commanding General, United States Army Europe
12. Glen Howard, President, Jamestown Foundation
13. Donald Jensen, Johns Hopkins University
14. Ian Kelly, Former U.S. Ambassador to Georgia and OSCE
15. John Kornblum, Former Assistant Secretary of State and U.S. Ambassador to Germany
16. Shelby Magid, Associate Director, Atlantic Council Eurasia Center
17. Robert McConnell, Co-Founder, U.S.-Ukraine Foundation
18. Claire Sechler Merkel, Senior Director, McCain Institute for International Leadership
19. David A. Merkel, Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State and Director, National Security Council
20.Barry Pavel, Senior Vice President and Director, Atlantic Council Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security
21. Herman Pirchner, President, American Foreign Policy Council
22.Michael Sawkiw, Jr., Director, Ukrainian National Information Service
23.Leah Scheunemann, Deputy Director, Atlantic Council Transatlantic Security Initiative
24.Benjamin L. Schmitt, Former European Energy Security Advisor, U.S. Department of State
25.William Taylor, Former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine
26.Alexander Vershbow, Former U.S. Ambassador to Russia and NATO
27. Kurt Volker, Former U.S. Ambassador to NATO and Special Representative for Ukraine Negotiations
Do these people not realize that this would amount to directly entering the war and would necessarily lead, and immediately lead, to a third world war, this time against a nuclear power lead by an arguably unstable dictator?
March 9, 2022
After Anthony Blinken promised that Poland would be able to transfer Mig 29s to Ukraine, while speaking as a guest on Meet the Press on Sunday, the Pentagon now terms the Polish offer as "untenable".
Vice President Harris is now going to Poland.
The Russians continue to make advances, but not at a blistering rate.
The Russians deployed an armored train in the Battle of Mariupol yesterday. I didn't even know that armored trains were still a thing, but apparently they are. I was aware they were used as late as World War Two by both the Germans and the Soviets, but apparently the Russians retain two that were based in Crimea, and at least one is now in use in the Russo Ukrainian War.
March 10, 2022
The Russians hit a maternity hospital in Mariupol yesterday in an airstrike.
Lines in the war remained more or less unchanged from yesterday.
Coca-Cola and Pepsi Cola have suspended sales to Russia. McDonald's has shut its operations in Russia down. Mining giant Rio Tinto cut ties with Russian businesses. Sony and Nintendo suspended game sales to Russia.
Russia is very close to defaulting on its financial obligations, the first time the country will have suffered that fate since 1917.
March 11, 2022
Russo Ukrainian War
Russia has asked for meeting of the UN Security Council claiming that there were US biological weapons labs on Ukrainian territory, an obviously made up claim for a variety of reasons, security of such labs alone being one. This is a species of "false flag" operation.
Of interest, there are there still those on the far right, such as Candace Owens, acting as apologists for Russia in this war. Owens leaped on this story with conspiratorial tweets supporting the Russian thesis, not the only support to Russia she's tweeted since the war began. US Congressman Madison Cawthorn called Ukrainian President Zelenskyy a "thug", which immediately received sharp rebuke from other Republican Congressman. These are examples of the extreme Trump loyalty right, however, which has grown increasingly silent as the war in Ukraine has raged on, or which has featured bizarre claims about Trump's resoluteness on such matters when in fact Trump has praised Putin since the beginning of the crisis and always had a relationship of some odd sort with him.
Anonymous has hacked into Russian news organizations and released 360,000k of files pertaining to their censorship.
Maybe Candace Owens will read them.
JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs are leaving Russia.
The Canadian Army sniper "Wali" has joined the 20,000 foreigners fighting the Russians in Ukraine.
ISIS v. Everyone
ISIL has named Abu al-Hassan al-Hashimi al-Qurayshi its new head.
March 11, continued
Russo Ukrainian War
Russia has started hitting Ukrainian airfields in western Ukraine with missiles.
A third Russian Major General, Andrei Kolesnikov, has been killed in action.
India and Pakistan
India accidentally fired a missile into Pakistan this week.
March 12, 2022
Russo Ukrainian War
Something is going on with the Russian forces, but it's not clear what it is. Lines have not moved for a few days.
The Russians could be stalled for logistical reasons. They were running out of gas early on, and it was assumed they'd simply overcome this and begin moving. They may not have overcome it.
They're being stalled additionally made their lines very vulnerable to attack, which the Ukrainians exploited. They may have therefore pulled back to some extent to regroup in a less vulnerable fashion. And they may be redeploying to attempt to commences a new series of offensives with new plans, given that they've clearly botched these ones.
Or they may simply have pulled back due ot logistical reasons and don't know what to do other than continue some sort of seige on a series of Ukrainian cities. They clearly didn't have even the remotest grasp on the level and extent of Ukrainian opposition, and they might literally have no idea what to actually do now.
The Russian government is acting like the Soviet one, in that it arrested Sergey Beseda, head of the FSB’s foreign intelligence branch, and Anatoly Bolyukh, his deputy. What their crimes would be isn't clear, but it would suggest that the pre war intelleigence on Ukraine was botched and now they're paying the price.
A collection of conservative Senators, including Wyoming's Senator Lummis, attempted to carve aid to Ukraine out of a must pass budget bill. The act would likely have pushed the aid package into next week. The nine Senators backing the proposed amendment claimed it could be voted on immediately, but that was incorrect as it would have had to go back to the House, which had recessed.
The primary vocal opponent to the attempt was Montana's John Tester, which interestingly pitted Wyoming's Lummis against Montana's Tester. Lummis repeated the error about sending it directly to the President's desk. In the end the effort failed.
It's a little difficult to grasp how the assertion of the carved out funding going directly to the President's desk could be made, as presumably any veteran lawmaker, particularly one like Lummis who had been in the House, would know better.
Officials are looking into whether a yacht in an Italian port may have ties to Putin.
March 12, 2022
Russo Ukrainian War
It was an other day of long range missle strikes. Russian forces aren't advancing. Instead, the Russians seem to have oddly opted for the time being to lay seige to the cities they haven't taken and pound everything else with rocketry and airstrikes.
It might be worth noting that typically that strategy is an indicator of failure on the ground.
Pope Francis again decryed the war, calling it an act of aggression, and calling war "madness".
While seemingly nothing will convince some of the negative news regarding Trump, this from Adam Kinzinger yesterday.
Adam Kinzinger tweeted yesterday:
Thread (and admission): 1) I want to be honest, in congress I have only a few votes that in hindset, I regret. My biggest regret was voting against the first impeachment of Donald Trump.Replying to2) It’s important for political leaders to be transparent and admit regret when needed. The bottom line, Donald Trump withheld lethal aid to Ukraine so he could use it as leverage for his campaign. This is a shameful and illegal act, directly hurting the Ukraine defense today…3) I wish i could go back in time and Vote for it, but I cannot. What we can do now is to ensure that this NEVER happens again, and that we all put the interests of our nation above our party. and others deserve our appreciation.
In Melitopol the Russians abducted the mayor, taking him off with a mask over his head. This resulted in protests in the city.
Iran v. Iraq/Kurds
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard launched a dozen missles at the Kurdish Iraqi capitol yesterday.
Related threads and prior editions:
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