Ukrainian soldier with AKM.
February 11, 2022
Russia v. Ukraine
Everything has the feel right now of waiting for an inevitable Russian invasion of Ukraine.
But how far will the Russians go, and what does that mean? We really don't know, assuming of course it happens.
And if Russia takes all of Ukraine, how long will the third guerilla war against the Russians in a century last?
And what will the much threatened sanctions amount to?
The US, we'll note, has told American citizens to leave the country.
February 17, 2022
Russia v. Ukraine
The Russians claimed to have withdrawn some troops from Crimea, the US says this isn't so.
The Russians have claimed to find mass graves of executed ethnic Russians in the Donbass, the Ukrainians say that isn't so.
The Russians also claim that they were shelled by Ukrainian artillery, which the Ukrainians also deny.
Arms of some sort continue to arrive in Ukraine from the west, although what's being shipped isn't clear. The US has been flying USAF drones over the country and not hiding it, which is interesting.
February 18, 2022
Russia v. Ukraine
Artillery exchanges are in fact occurring in the Eastern Ukraine.
February 19, 2022
Russia v. Ukraine
Russian separatist in the Donbass region have ordered a general mobilization of all men capable of bearing arms on the baloney pretext that they fear a Ukranian invasion.
While making guesses in this context is difficult, my guess is that this is the beginning of the false flag operation that's been predicted, and the war will commence shortly.
February 21, 2022
According to the US, the orders to launch an invasion have been given to Russian field commanders.
France has been engaging in telephonic shuttle diplomacy between the US and Russia in hopes of avoiding a war. It seems like the current status of this is that the US has proposed a summit if Russia doesn't invade.
This raises the question if what is occurring is an intentional variant of the Sudetenland crisis. Ie., Putin may have sparked this run up to an invasion with the thought that the west would bargain the Donbass, Crimea, and NATO status for Ukraine, away, rather than to risk a war.
February 21, 2022
Putin spoke, blaming the US in part for the situation, and declaring the breakaway provinces of Ukraine occupied by Russian surrogates to be independent states. The Russians are sending troops into them as "peacekeepers".
Effectively, at type of invasion is now occurring.
February 24, 2022
Russia v. Ukraine
Russia has invaded the Ukraine, but the full nature and extent of that action is not yet clear.
Air and missile strikes commenced yesterday in the early morning hours. Reports from Ukraine are that Russian troops crossed the border in the north and the south.
Several NATO countries have invoked Article 4, requiring a consultation.
Just yesterday, FWIW, former President Donald Trump was praising Putin as a master strategist. Others are wondering if the now elderly Putin has become mentally unhinged. This is likely to result not only in a Ukrainian defeat, but the economic destruction of Russia.
Yesterday, Putin, prior to launching the invasion, was threatening to use his nuclear arsenal if western nations interfered with his assault on Ukraine. In a televised broadcast, he dressed down one of his own intelligence chiefs, who was clearly stunned by the treatment.
There's been a lot of speculation on why Putin would take an action that's guaranteed to be a disaster for the Russian economy, with speculation ranging from he just doesn't get it, to he just doesn't care. The latter is probably the case. The Russian economy is in an increasingly distressed state and with a change in the US administration, Putin no longer has some sort of friend in office in the west. Ukraine has been moving increasingly towards the west in its orientation. Putin would reassemble all of the old pieces of the Russian Empire into his new one if he could, and this was likely, by his calculation, the last chance he had to do so. What remains unknown at this hour is if he'll grab pieces of Ukraine and push for it to bargain with him, or simply overrun the entire country.
What also isn't known is the degree to which this may prove to be a bloody fight. The Russian Army is frankly not all that great, but the Ukrainian Army is a former Soviet one as well. If not a peer to peer fight, which it isn't due to at least Russian air assets, it may be closer to a peer to peer fight than generally suspected. And the Russians will receive years and years of guerilla warfare within the country, and probably now out into Russia as well, as a result.
February 25, 2022
The Russo Ukrainian War.
One complete day of fighting has now occurred.
Ukraine is a large country, and the size of the respective military forces is actually in their balance, except in the air. Having said that, the Russians have not done as well as expected, and the Ukrainians are putting up a real fight. They heavily resisted the Russian capture of Chernobyl, albeit unsuccessfully, and wiped out an airborne attack on an airport very near Kyiv.
The reporting on advances themselves, I should note, has been bad. From most of the television reporting, it's impossible to tell the actual state of the war at any one time.
The Ukrainians have ordered a full mobilization which would, if fully carried out, put an additional 1,000,000 men in uniform. Yesterday, the Ukrainian government issued 10,000 rifles to civilians in Kiev. The Ukrainian parliament has passed a right for civilians to keep and bear arms.
Large protests broke out in Russian in over 60 Russian cities yesterday over their own country's actions in commencing an invasion of a neighbor, Over 1,000 Russians were arrested.
All three of Wyoming's Congressional delegates condemned the attack, which means notably that Senators Barrasso and Lummis have now joined a position regarding Russian behavior that Congressman Cheney held for months. Having said that, a staffer of one of the Senators seemed headed towards neutrality until his employer came out with condemnation. The positions were notably much stouter than that taken by Elsie Stefanik, who replaced Cheney in her role in the House. Setfanik, who also condemned the attacks, stoutly and fairly absurdly blamed them on President Biden. Her view however is a minority one in the current politics of the time, with this being one thing, so far, both parties seem unified on.
China blamed the US for the Russian invasion, not surprisingly.
Heavy sanctions are rolling onto Russia, which is a petrostate with an otherwise primitive economy.
February 26, 2021
The Russians are now in Kyiv
They have not taken it and Ukrainian resistance is reported as fierce.
Without really saying as much, western military analysts expected the Russians to take Kyiv on the first day of the invasion. That Russian troops are in it now is very bad for Ukraine, but also demonstrates that the military advance is much slower than anticipated. Indeed, Russian forces have been underperforming and Ukrainian ones over performing so far.
Ukraine still faces, of course, long odds.
The Russian Navy took the tiny island of Snake Island which has been Ukranian territory since the Second World War. It's claimed by Romania as well. The island was occupied by border guards. The Russian ship identified itself as that, and demanded the surrender of the border guards occuping it. After a slight delay, they replied "Russian ship, go fuck yourself". All thirteen border guards were killed in the ensuing bombardment and occupation of the island.
The island is off of Odessa.
More and more it appears that Russia intends to take Ukraine west of the Dneiper.
NATO is deploying troops to its eastern boundaries.
US paratroopers deploying to Latvia.
The Netherlands are sending 200 antiaircraft missiles to Ukraine.
The US Administration is seeking $6.4B in aid to Ukraine, half of which is for military equipment.
Japan is considering joining in on the sanctions. Australia has.
February 27, 2022
Situation as of February 27, 2022. https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg Viewsridge - Own work, derivate of Russo-Ukraine Conflict (2014-present).svg by Rr016 based on map provided by BNO News
Fighting rages on iside of Kyiv. The Russians have entered Kharkiv, Ukraine's second largest city. For those familiar with the old Russian spellings, this is the city of Kharkov. They have not taken it, but rather are now engaged in fierce street fighting.
As the map shows, they've' also advanced down on Kyiv on both bank of the Dneiper and in the south, they've launched a spearhead across the Dneiper. While recent US assessments have been that their advance, which as been remarkably slow, was slowing down more, it now appears to be picking up speed and becoming much more coordinated.
In the south, moreover, this would suggest that they in fact intend to take the entire country, not just the territory east of the Dneiper.
Yesterday Russian websites were subject to a cyber attack, with at least one hackers group openly announcing they were targeting the Russian government.
Today Putin has declared western sanctions "illegitimate" and put his nuclear forces on special status, a fairly meaningless species of armed tantrum in context.
February 28, 2022
Situation as of February 28, 2022. https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg Viewsridge - Own work, derivate of Russo-Ukraine Conflict (2014-present).svg by Rr016 based on map provided by BNO News
There have been signficant gains by the Russians in he south over the lsat day, an area which is receiving little in the way of reporting. In an area in the east, a Sovieet advance of yesterday was repulsed and the Ukranians recovered ground.
The southerin advance is, from a military position, extremely worrisome as it appears set to link with Russian forces to the east, and be well positioned to advance up the right bank of the Dneiper and sever the country in two.
Fighting remains fierce in Kharkiv and Kyiv. Photos from Kharkiv showing civilians dead in the streets with water and groceries they were trying to bring home before Russian artillery killed them have been published.
The US has increased its state of readiness given yesterday's declaration that Russian nuclear forces were going on high alert.
Russian markets are tanking.
The world's largest airplane, the An-225, was destroyed in the fighting at the airport that's been contested outside of Kyiv.
The ruble is an a free fall.
The Russian stock exchange has closed.
The agreed to discussions beteween Ukraine and Russia have commenced.
February 28, cont:
Updated map, showing Russian coastal advances, but much less overall territorial control in the south than earlier map.
Switzerland has joined the EU in its sactions.
March 1, 2022
On todays' sitaution map, the Russians regained some ground they'd lost yesterday in the South, but also lost some ground they had taken. They may be withdrawing in the south from the left bank of the Dneiper. Their forces that had linked with rebel areas of the Donbas were cut off again.
A massive Russian convoy is reported north of Kyiv.
Putin is reportedly becoming irate with the slow Russian progress accodring to Russian insiders and threatening to launch a more devestating attack.
This would suggest that the offensive used limited, if signficant, resources and that the Russians are underperforming.
Hungary, while a NATO member, announced it will not allow arms to cross its territory to enter Russia. Hungary's president is a Putin ally.
Slate has an article analysing the Russian offensive and concluding the Russian army is just bad. You heard it here first.
March 1, cont.
The Russians have not achieved air superiority, their advance has stalled again, some Russian troops have run out of food and feul, and some have even surrendered.
At this point they've committed 80% of their pre invasion mustered force.
March 2, 2022
Todays' situation is much like yesterday's The Russian reestablished their coastal link up with a breakaway region of the Donbass after having achieved that yesterday and then having lost it. They continue to struggle to take Kyiv and Kharkiv, but have not. They've now made an advance to a city northeast of Kyiv.
March 3, 2022
Situation as of March 3, 2022, 2022. https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg Viewsridge - Own work, derivate of Russo-Ukraine Conflict (2014-present).svg by Rr016 based on map provided by BNO News
The Russians continue to advance. The Ukranian Black Sea port city of Kherson in the south has fallen, being the first major Ukranian city to fall. Still, the amazing thing is that it wasn't occupied by the Russians on the first day of the invasion, being close to occupied Crimea.
The UN has condemned the Russian invasion.
Over 800,000 refugees have fled the country.
Reports exist that the Chinese instructed the Russians not to commence the invasion during the Olympics.
Martch 3, cont.
The massive Russian convoy north of Kyiv that has received so much attention appears to actually be a series of smaller ones that are stalled.
Ukranian sources claim to have attacked it, which the US says it does not doubt, but it also seems that it may be at least partially stalled due to breakdowns and fuel issues.
March 4, 2022
The Russians are expanding their toe hold in the north and beginning to advance more into western Ukraine with a clear, if early, trend in the expansion of that offensive commencing. The are also clearly now closing their pincer's in the northeast and shall likely hold a greatly expanded area in the north east within a few days. It's beginning to therefore become plain that their goal is to take the entire country, although the rate at which they are progressing is much slower than would have been anticpated.
Yesterday buildings at the nuclear power plant at Enerhodar caught fire during the seige there.
Russian Gen. Andrei Sukhovetsky, commander of the Russian 7th Airborne Division and a deputy commander of the 41st Combined Arms Army, was killed by a Ukranian sniper.
March 5, 2022
Russian forces in the south made a rapid advance to the nortwest interior yesterday, although their advance is thin.
Ceasefires were agreed to pertaining to two secondary cities in order that civilians could evacuate. The cities are Mariupol and Volnovakha. Mariupol is a port city that has repeatedly been reported as captured, but obviously fighting continues there.
U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham stated yesterday that a Russian assasination of Puti would be the only way "that this ends".
Reports have been made that Russia dispatched two seperate mercenary groups in an effort to assasinate President Zelenskyy, who has survived three attempts so far. This would be a clearly illegal action even in the context of war with it being notable that during the Second World War no nation went so low as to attempt the same.
Russia has blocked access to Facebook in its ongoing effort to prevent the news of the war and its attack upon its neighbor from reaching its citizens. It earlier imposed fifteen year prison sentences as a penalty for reporteres going against the official line of Putin's government concerning the assault upon the neighboring country.
China blocked Premier League soccor coverage based on an expresed intent for teams to stand with Ukraine.
Remington and Federal are each providing 1,000,000 rounds of ammunition to Ukraine, gratus.
Italy has seized some yachts belonging to Russian oligarchs.
Soprano Anna Netrebko has resigned from the Metropolitan Opera after refusing to renounce Putin. Netrebko is from the Russian city of Krasnodar, just east of Crimea. Interestingly, the last name would indicate Ukranian heritage.
North Korea
The Stalin theme park of North Korea fired its ninth ballistic missle of the year, the second one since the Russian invasion of Ukraine started. This isn't surprising, as nobody is paying any attention to the pathetic state during the current crisis.
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