March 14, 2022
Russo-Ukrainian War
Talks will resume today between Russia and Ukraine. So far they have failed to produce results.
The weekend shows all featured concerns that Russia will deploy chemical weapons.
Russia struck a training base which is approximately ten miles from the Polish border with missiles.
Russia is seeking economic relief and military drones from China. The request for drones is particularly telling as it's the attempt to import weapons from a foreign source, something Russia has not done since World War Two, demonstrating a material deficiency.
March 15, 2022
Russo Ukrainian War
The lines remain largely the same as yesterday, with a slight Russian advance in the north. The Russians have continued to assault cities through various forms of artillery and rocketry.
This has resulted in large-scale civilian loss of life, including the heavily pregnant woman whose photograph was widely distributed. The woman, photographed on a stretcher, was severely injured and both she and her baby died as a result of the Russian strike on a pregnancy hospital in Mariupol.
An article by a participant reveals that the Marine Corps ran a hex and counter game of a Russian invasion of Ukraine, with largely similar results up to the present time. The author noted that a premise of the game was that the Russians committed less than they could, failing to understand how stout Ukrainian resistance would be.
That assumption has been widespread, but the problem with it is that it ignores the reality of Russian effectiveness on the ground. The Russians military continues to have apologists, but at this point it's pretty difficult to conclude that the Russians simply weren't prepared for what they've encountered and, moreover, their military is experiencing its traditional incompetence. Yesterday, the news broke that the Russians are seeking drones and field rations from the Chinese, indicating an inability to readily supply good drones of their own and moreover a shortage of field rations. While I've even seen that explained away, that's a clear indication that this war has gotten over their heads and abilities. That doesn't mean they'll lose, but it does mean that they're being outfought and attrition of material items is catching up with them on at least a basic level on one thing, food.
An examination of the chemical weapons story being tossed about by the Russians reveals that it originated on American far right websites and was adopted by the Russians. That means that those circulating it now, such as Candace Owens, have picked up on a far-fetched American conspiracy theory story adopted by the Russians are now basically unwitting Russian tools.
A bill has been introduced in the U.S. Congress to issue letters of marque and reprisal.
117th CONGRESS 2d Session H. R. 6869 To authorize the President of the United States to issue letters of marque and reprisal for the purpose of seizing the assets of certain Russian citizens, and for other purposes. _______________________________________________________________________ IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES February 28, 2022 Mr. Gooden of Texas introduced the following bill; which was referred to the Committee on Foreign Affairs _______________________________________________________________________ A BILL To authorize the President of the United States to issue letters of marque and reprisal for the purpose of seizing the assets of certain Russian citizens, and for other purposes. Be it enacted by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, SECTION 1. ISSUANCE OF LETTERS OF MARQUE AND REPRISAL FOR PURPOSE OF SEIZING ASSETS OF CERTAIN RUSSIAN CITIZENS. (a) Authority of President.--The President of the United States is authorized and requested to commission, under officially issued letters of marque and reprisal, so many of privately armed and equipped persons and entities as, in the judgment of the President, the service may require, with suitable instructions to the leaders thereof, to employ all means reasonably necessary to seize outside the geographic boundaries of the United States and its territories any yacht, plane, or other asset of any Russian citizen who is on the List of Specially Designated Nationals and Blocked Persons maintained by the Office of Foreign Assets Control of the Department of the Treasury. (b) Security Bonds.--No letter of marque and reprisal shall be issued by the President without requiring the posting of a security bond in such amount as the President shall determine is sufficient to ensure that the letter be executed according to the terms and conditions thereof.
The bill will not pass, but it's interesting how this is the second time this suggestion has come up in the last twenty years, showing a slight renewed interest in one of the war powers that had seemingly fallen away completely.
Yesterday, an employee of a Russian television show popped into the background of a news broadcast with a sign protesting the war.
March 16, 2022
Ukraine has launched counteroffensives in the north seeking to relieve its besieged cities, including Kyiv.
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy addressed the U.S. Congress.
March 18, 2022
Among the casualties of war is civilian Oksana Shivits, a famed Ukrainian actress, who was killed by a Russian missile strike.
Yet another Russian general, together with his staff, was killed in action.
An interesting prediction from a well known commentator:
March 19, 2022
Russian forces have been gaining ground in the south and in the north once again. This has been little reported on, but whatever has been holding them up may have, at least to some degree, been overcome to some extent. Since the last map was posted, a significant amount of Ukrainian territory was taken in the south and southeast.
The Russians have been hitting Lviv with rockets regularly.
Russian cosmonauts, in a bold act of protest, arrived at the International Space Station yesterday wearing suits that were in Ukraine's national colors.
The United States has cautioned China to avoid aiding the Russians in the war.
March 20, 2022
Russian forces continue to gain ground in the south.
Fighting continues on in Mariupol with the Russians continuing to hit urban structures resulting in civilian loss of life.
The Russians have deployed hypersonic missiles in their long range bombardment efforts, the first use of the same in war.
The Russians appear to be starting to recruit Syrians to serve in their forces in the war.\
March 20, cont:
On the weekend shows, Mitch McConnell made a pitch for aiding Ukraine and noted that we should take the view that the Ukrainians may win, and we should help them do so.
Russia has been deporting residents of Mariupol to camps.
The Institute for the Study of War reported that it regards Russia as having lost the first stage of the war and that it is now basically digging in for a long war. It reports:
Ukrainian forces have defeated the initial Russian campaign of this war. That campaign aimed to conduct airborne and mechanized operations to seize Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odesa, and other major Ukrainian cities to force a change of government in Ukraine. That campaign has culminated. Russian forces continue to make limited advances in some parts of the theater but are very unlikely to be able to seize their objectives in this way. The doctrinally sound Russian response to this situation would be to end this campaign, accept a possibly lengthy operational pause, develop the plan for a new campaign, build up resources for that new campaign, and launch it when the resources and other conditions are ready. The Russian military has not yet adopted this approach. It is instead continuing to feed small collections of reinforcements into an ongoing effort to keep the current campaign alive. We assess that that effort will fail.
It further reports:
The Ukrainian General Staff reported for the first time that the Kremlin is preparing its population for a “long war” in Ukraine and implementing increasingly draconian mobilization measures. The General Staff reported the Russian military commissariats of the Kuban, Primorsky Krai, Yaroslavl Oblast, and Ural Federal Districts are conducting covert mobilization measures but are facing widespread resistance.
In an odd development, in some parts of the US efforts to collect arms for Ukraine have commenced, although how much help donated arms could be, let lone whether they could get there, is a pretty problematic question.
NATO representatives and US Defense Department representatives hinted that the use of biological or chemical weapons by the Russians may cross a line which would result in direct NATO involvement in the war.
March 21, 2022
Ukraine rejected Russian calls for the surrender of Mariupol. Western analysts have opined the Russians may be too exhausted to take the city in a house to house battle.
There are growing fears that Russia, should it win in Ukraine, may take on the Baltic States, members of NATO, next, or Moldova, which is not.
March 22, 2022
The Ukrainians pushed the Russians out of a Kyiv suburb.
Over the last few days, the Ukrainians have been mounting some offensive actions.
March 23, 2022
From the Wall Street Journal:
NATO says that up to 40,000 Russian troops have been killed, wounded, taken prisoner or are missing in Ukraine, said a senior military official from the alliance.
40,000.
NATO estimates that between 7,000 and 15,000 Russian soldiers have been killed since the invasion began on Feb. 24. Using statistical averages from past conflicts that for every casualty roughly three soldiers are wounded, NATO analysts reach their total figure.
Russia began its invasion with roughly 190,000 troops. It has since brought in additional troops from Chechnya, Syria and other locations.
This would mean that the Russian Army has sustained as many combat deaths in Ukraine as the Soviet Army did during its entire campaign in Afghanistan.
March 24, 2022
Russo-Ukrainian War
High ranking Russian official Anatoly Chubais resigned his post and left the country due to the war in Ukraine.
Russian journalist Oksana Baulina was killed while filming in Kyiv.
Renault, which had resumed production in Russia, has stopped again.
Finland has detained 21 yachts with ties to Russians.
North Korea
North Korea fired a missile that may be an ICBM into the sea.
March 25, 2022
Russo Ukrainian War
Half of Ukraine's children have been displaced due to the war.
The Ukrainians destroyed the large Russian landing ship Orsk and damaged two other Russian naval vessels in the occupied port of Berdyansk.
Ukrainians have been regaining some ground near Kyiv.
There are reports that yet another Russian general, Yakov Rezantsev, has been killed in Ukraine. He reportedly was close to Putin and had predicted the war in Ukraine would be short.
Col. Yury Medvedev, a Russian commander, was injured when a Russian tank crewman intentionally ran over him with a tank.
There are reports that hackers and railway workers in Belorussian have been disrupting the railway system there in support of Ukraine. Pro Ukrainian protests have broken out in the country.
March 26, 2022
Russia declared yesterday that its goal in the war had been to take all the Donbas region and that the larger offensive was just a diversion, a claim that's fairly obviously baloney. More likely, this signals an effort to recast the war in that light, perhaps to the Russians themselves, in an effort to declare victory and potentially wind the operation down in light of the difficulties it has been facing.
The announcement is quite significant, however, as it signals the war has likdly entered a new phase with Russian forces going, at least temporarily, into a defensive posture.
Russian forces have ceased offensive actions near Kyvi and gone on the defensive. Ukrainian forces have been on the offensive there in recent days.
The BBC reports that the Russians have lost a total of six generals in the war in Ukraine. In contrast, the United States lost 12 generals during the long Vietnam War, and one in Afghanistan.
The Pentagon reports that Russian cruise missiles have a failure rate of 20% to 60%.
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