October 4, 2022
Russo Ukrainian War
When this war started, I never thought, several months later, we'd be seriously looking at a situation in which Ukrainian forces stood a chance of completely driving the Russian military out of territory that Russia has been occupying since 2014.
Nor, frankly, had anyone else.
But it's begging to look as if they might. Indeed, it's more likely than not.
This is an example of Western military training, Ukrainian resolve, and the fact that the Russian army sucks, and always has, exercising its influence. Ukraine, it appears, is about to triumph in its second offensive in less than a month, and this one stands to expel the Russians from Ukraine,
Which means that a desperate Putin, who has painted himself into a corner, may be about to use tactical nuclear weapons.
Not until this past week would I have made that statement. But I am now. The man is unhinged from reality, and has left himself no choice, other than to act in a decent moral fashion or a manifestly evil one. But as observers of history and politics well know, at some point some people have so sold their souls such that the truth and morality no longer have any meaning.
Putin may have sold his soul long ago that reality no longer matters to him.
It won't work, but we're about to enter, maybe, the most slippery slope we have since . . . well ever. More slippery than the Cuban Missile Crisis, and certainly slipperier than Able Archer.
When, um I mean if, Putin orders the use of tactical nuclear weapons, NATO will reply in force, by destroying Russian ground assets in Ukraine and naval assets in the Black Sea, which may then mean that the current war expands, possibly, into a general European war. And if this war has proven anything, it's that the Russian military is so incredibly bad it won't be able to do anything whatsoever about it.
Of course, I suppose, it could retaliate with nuclear weapons, which I don't think it will, but which is a possibility of course.
At any rate, at this point, Russia appears to be very badly losing the war against Ukraine on territory that voted to leave Russia in 1991 but which Putin's Russia has been seeking to reclaim, and partially had. Now, Putin's miscalculated war, whose calculations were based on the Russian army amounting to something as it last had . . . well never, seems to be going completely amiss. Putin has left, however, his country very little choice. He can't negotiate because he's declared the territory to be part of Mother Russia, and he can't win, as the Russian army is as bad as it has ever been. The only thing he has left, as noted, are nuclear weapons.
Remarkably, Western military analysts do not seem particularly scared even while acknowledging the possibility, which should give us some comfort. Having long pondered a low yield nuclear war, they seem comfortable with one occurring, with only one side using them.
Let's hope it doesn't occur, and that God may help us all.
Господи, помоги нам всем.
Слава Україні!
Oct 4, cont:
Perhaps coincidentally, reports this morning report the movement of weapons from a nuclear missile unit, although at least in a Western army, such weapons would not be tactical nuclear weapons. And Russian ballistic missile was deployed in the Arctic. If these reports are correct, they are likely meant as warnings to the west, which won't and shouldn't be heeded.
Elon Musk, who proposed a peace plan on Twitter, received an enormous backlash, including from Ukrainian officials. He called Crimea part of Russia since the 1780s, and uniting it "Khrushchev's mistake". His plan also called for a UN administered vote on succession of those areas recently claimed to be annexed by Russia.
It was in fact conquered by the Russian Empire in 1783, but it had a distinct ethnic nature at the time. It was its own political subdivision inside the Soviet Union, although many Crimean Tartars were deported by the USSR after World War Two. It voted to leave Russia and join Ukraine in 1991 and had the status of a political subdivision until invaded and occupied by the Russians in 2014.
Musk has been taking a lot of flak on Twitter recently. This comes just after a spat with economist Robert Reich.
Oct 4, cont:
Washington Post headline from today:
Ukraine hammers Russian forces into retreat on east and south fronts
October 5, 2022
Putin signed the annexation order on the partially occupied territories yesterday.
October 5, 2022 cont.
The Ukrainians have broken through at Svatove in Luhansk. Basically, the Russians are coming unglued.
October 8, 2022
A giant truck explosion has damaged the Crimea Bridge, the only land route over the Black Sea to Crimea.
October 9, 2022
Sergei Surovikin, who previously led Russian forces in Syria, has been placed in command of the effort in Ukraine. He'd also previously led the Russian effort in southern Ukraine. Recently, he's been in command of Russia's air and space assets.
October 10, 2022
Russia's reply to the truck bombing of the Crimea Bridge has been a missile offensive on Ukrainian targets, many of which are simply civilian targets.
Russia has effectively reverted to the practices of the Second World War in regard to target acquisition. I've noted it before here, but I regard the targeting of civilian targets from the air, by anybody, during World War Two to have been criminal in nature. Collateral damage, unfortunately, is another matter.
There's no excuse whatsoever for it now.
The truck bombing remains of unclear origin. Nobody has said anything to this effect, but it appears to likely have been a suicide bombing, which is generally out of character for the Ukrainian war effort. Some Russian sources feel that it included Russian dissident elements in its organization, and it may have. It may very well have been an independent or semi-independent act.
October 11, 2022
Iran
Widespread protests in Iran have extended to the nation's refineries.
Russo Ukrainian War
A second day of Russian missile attacks is ongoing in Ukraine, as the Russians do the only thing they seem capable of, lashing out at Ukraine in general.
Russian cyberterrorists launched a cyberattack on U.S. airports yesterday.
October 13, 2022
Uniting two pariah states in one war, Iranian Revolutionary Guard personnel are training Russian troops on the use of Ukrainian drones, inside of territory occupied by the Russians in Ukraine.
All the while, protests are spreading in Iran against its government over its treatment of women, effectively, and the loss of life of women at the hands of Iranian authorities.
October 15, 2022
Russia has suspended additional recalls/levies, having brought 220,000 men into service. 260,000 Russian men have fled the country. It appears that conscription/recall was one more thing the Russian government was unable to effectively manage.
October 15, cont.
Two volunteer Russian soldiers, from a former part of the Soviet Union, opened up on their fellow trainees today in Russia, killing eleven of them.
Which gives credence to my theory that the Crimea bridge bombing fits into the long history of auxiliary regional warfare. I.e, I think that will turn out to be the work of Georgians, or Armenians, or Azerbaijan's, rather than Ukrainians.
All of which means Russia is starting to encounter the fruits of its prior repressions in the current attempt to annex and subjugate Ukraine.
October 16, 2022
Ukrainian orchestra conductor Yuri Kerpatenko, Керпатенко Юрій Леонідович, was murdered by Russian soldiers for refusing to perform in an orchestra performance hosted by the Russian in Kherson Oblast.
The Russians are well on their way to making themselves the Nazis of the early 21st Century. And I do mean the Russians, not Putin. Just as the crime of Nazi Germany have tainted the Germans ever since, so will the crimes of the Putinist taint Russia, lest it do something to stop them from carrying on.
October 18, 2022
Russia has hit Kyiv with numerous suicide drones, part of an overall missile and drone attack on Ukrainian population centers.
More and more Russia of 2022 actions like Germany of 1939-1945.
Ethnic tensions among Russian recruits resulted in Tajik soldiers killing Russian compatriots in Belogorod. Their commander had insulted Islam and claimed the invasion of Ukraine a holy war.
This is interesting in that Russia has rapidly reached a state of demoralization within its Army which has surpassed that experienced by the United States during the Vietnam War and which should be a sign that its army may simply come apart.
October 19, 2022
Iran
A Persian edition of the British newspaper The Telegraph ran an article on how to use handguns. It must be noted that given the UK's position on firearms, that's rather ironic.
Protests are spreading and children are now included in them. Factions appear to be developing in the government.
Russo Ukrainian War
It has been confirmed that Iranian Revolutionary Guards are in Crimea as training cadre on Iranian drones, as their own country edges towards a revolution which would leave them as permanent guests of Putin's regime.
The last two days, the Russians have been targeting Ukrainian infrastructure with missile and drone strikes.
The Russians are evacuating Kherson.
October 21, 2022
Conor Kennedy, the grandson of Robert F. Kennedy, is apparently just back from the war after having served in the Ukrainian Legion.
By his own account, his time in the war was fairly short, although he reports that he liked being a soldier.
The Russians are withdrawing from Kherson. It is believed that they may attempt to blow up a substantial dam in the region in order to cover their withdrawal.
October 22, 2022
Russia is trying to evacuate civilians from Kherson while also pouring in conscripts, fodder for the cannons.
October 24, 2022
From The Pilar interview with Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew I:
The Russian-Ukraine War is a conflict largely between Eastern Orthodox Christians. How do you feel about this as the spiritual leader of the world’s Eastern Orthodox Christians?
The ongoing war waged by Russia into the sovereign territory of Ukraine has weighed heavily on our mind and heart in recent months. It is true that it has been characterized as Orthodox fratricide, although the consequences have reached many more people, including Ukrainian Catholics as well as other Christian and religious believers, and the repercussions have surely been felt throughout the world.
What is still more painful to us is the fact that the Patriarchate of Moscow has stooped to the level of submitting to political ambitions of the Russian Federation, even endorsing and seemingly blessing this cruel invasion and unjustifiable bloodshed. We have repeatedly condemned the aggression and violence, just as we have fervently and fraternally appealed to the Patriarch of Moscow that he separate himself from political crimes, even if it means stepping down from his throne.
October 25, 2022
Myanmar
The government launched an airstrike on a celebration by the Kachin Independence Organization in the northern state of Kachin, killing at least 80 individuals.
The air force is equipped principally with Russian and Chinese aircraft.
Russo Ukrainian War
Russian diplomats have been yapping about Ukraine preparing to use a "dirty bomb", which it isn't. The fact that they're doing this, however, is raising a lot of speculation about the purpose of this Kremlin story. Something is going on.
It's now clear the recent annexation of Ukrainian territory by Russia has caused a split in the Kremlin, with some Russian figures reaching out to the west to try to start negotiations.
October 25, cont.
The US has been hitting Al Shabaab targets in Somalia, including one earlier this week. The one earlier this week was in support of Somali National Army forces.
October 30, 2022
Expanding the drone war, Ukrainian naval drones hit a Russian cruiser yesterday. Russia called off the grain deal in retaliation.
The drone attack was by a group of drones, showing how naval war is rapidly evolving. Effectively, such vessels take the place of PT boats, when PT boats were still viable.
General Alexander Lapin has been relieved of his command of the central area Russian forces in Ukraine.
At least where I live, the World Series, being run on Fox, is featuring a television commercial opposing US aid to Ukraine in the current war.
November 2, 2022
Russo Ukrainian War
The Wagner Group is attempting to recruit fromer Afghan National Army refugee commandos who have taken refuge in Afghanistan. They are resistant to recruitmant, but fear being deported to Afghanistan.
According to the NYT, Soviet commanders recently discussed the topic of the use of nuclear weapons. This without Putin.
This is probably not cause for undue alarm, but it is cause for alarm. Americans might wish to recall that this occured in our military in the 50s and 60s, and it was politicians that percluded their use by frustrated commanders.
North Korea
North Korea, the diapered baby of nations, fired 23 missles into the sea this week.
It's hard to know why this isolated Stalinist theme park does these things, other than to get attention. Whatever it is, it doesn't work. Indeed, the Communist Clown State risks somebody taking it seriously at which point its ongoing existance, or at least that of its leadership, stands to become iffy.
November 3, 2022
Uniting both of the topics above, North Korea is supplying artillery shells to Russia.
Yesterday it launched an ICBM over Japan.
November 8, 2022
Ukranian President Zelensky expressed an openess to peace talks with Russia, on Ukrainian terms, those being:
One more time: restoration of territorial integrity, respect for the U.N. charter, compensation for all material losses caused by the war, punishment for every war criminal and guarantees that this does not happen again
This is not insignificant, although its likely to be dismissed as being so. At least the condition of war crimes trials is likely to be bargained away. This may be an actual bid to open talks, done with Western backing.
Where it would lead is another matter. Maybe Ukrainian territorial integrity, but combined with a promise not to join NATO.
November 9, 2022
While there are fears it may be a ruse, the Russians appear to be withdrawing from Kherson in advance of a Ukrainian offensive.
Do so is wise in light of their inability to defend it, but also telling. Kherson was taken early in the current war and Ukraine will soon advance back to the Dneipr.
November 10, 2022
The United States estimates that both Russia and Ukraine has sustained over 100,000 casualties in the current war.
Note, that's casualties, not deaths.
November 11, 2022
The Ukrainians are in Kherson and will very soon have retaken the complete left bank fo the Dnipr. This is an epic Russian defeat, and the Ukrainians will be in striking distance of Crimea.
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