The much anticipated "pro choice" vote that the pundits are predicting to roll in nationally, and Democrats are depending upon, will almost wholly fail to materialize.
Young voters, who the Democrats are also depending on, won't show up.
Hispanic voters will, but a lot more of them will vote Republican, reflecting social conservatism, than anticipated.
The much ballyhooed babble that things are so violent out there that we're living in The French Connection, won't persuade anyone to vote one way or another on anything.
Inflation will influence older voters on fixed incomes quite a bit in their vote.
The Republicans will probably gain the Senate, but not by much.
The Democrats will barely hand on to the House.
A little more long term.
Withing a week of the election, Donald Trump will announce he's running in 2024. He won't, actually, as by that time the nationa will have moved on and his troubles will have grown. Moreover, given his age and all that being in the position of 1) being a candidate and 2) being a potential defendant in one more trials, will catch up with him and nature will take its course, as it always does in the end.
Up until that moment, Joe Biden will indicate he's running, assuming the intervention of the docking of the barque within the next year or so. After that, however, one way or another, he'll announce that he's not running.
The Tribune predicts a Republican sweep locally, but how could that not occur?
It will, but Lynette Grey Bull will pull in at least 33% of the vote, maybe more. Harriet Hageman will go on to be elected, but she'll be sidelined as an irrelevant freshman Congressman as soon as she shows up. Senator Barrasso will start to slowly pull away from Trump and Hageman. Senator Lummis will not.
Chuck Grey will of course win the Secretary of State's position, but a surprising number of Nethercott write ins will appear. He'll go on to be a largely ineffectual Secretary of State who will mark time until 2026, when he hopes to run for Governor. He will run, but he won't be nominated.
The next legislature will take a sharp leap to the right, and as a result it will be constantly at war, in some fashion, on local control and social issues. It'll also cut back on spending and dig in on fossil fuels. Given the probable GOP take over of the Senate, nothing big "green" will happen in the next two years, but nothing of the opposite nature will happen either. A couple of years in attempting to an evolving, changing energy economy will be lost.
By 2024 the bloom will start to be off the rose locally on the hard right lurch. Many of the diehard forces will have waned, and to some degree the movement will be a victim of its success. Political glory is short. Two legislative sessions of attacking the Federal government and not funding things will have its toll and the rollback will start.
By that time, it'll be harder to find people who, although they have Grey and Hagemean signs out right now, will admit that they voted for them. By the same token, people will be lying about who they voted for by mid-week. Lots of Grey Bull voters are going to deny they voted for her, and in some offices people who voted for Hageman or Grey will be lying about that.
Amendment A, allowing local communities to invest their reserves, will fail, even though it should pass.
Amendment B, allowing judges to serve for 15 years after they die, will pass, even though it should fail.
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