Tuesday, April 18, 2023

The 2024 Election, Part II. What could go wrong?

Donald Trump, who has a really good brain, good genes, leading the GOP into the 2024 election.
 
November 15, 2022

Donald Trump, having lost the popular vote twice before, the electoral vote once before, and whose personality and behavior meant the Senate remained in Democratic hands this election, and the House and Senate went, with the Oval Office, to Democrats in 2020, has announced for the Presidency again.

There is something wrong with Trump.

He will not win, and he stands a good chance of taking the Republican Party into oblivion with him.

November 16, 2022

Apparently none of the major networks carried his entire speech, if they carried any part of it at all, and while it's easy to find this as a news story, it's pretty much impossible to find the entire text of the speech.

That's quite telling.

Trump fed off of the press during his entire Presidency, but now they appear to have grown tired of him.

The Conservative National Review is already out with an editorial, simply captioned:

NO.

Murdoch's tabloid New York Post, not the most admirable newspaper, but one that's reliably Republican, dissed Trump with a page 26 article which on the cover simply has:

Florida Man Makes Announcement.

We'll see, in spite of the looming disaster, my predication is, like Benteen and Reno, the GOP will fall in line and charge into the valley anyhow.  They shouldn't go in there, and quite a few of them know that, but they will anyhow.

November 17, cont:

Keven McCarthy received a visit today from a well known Trump strategist.

For those who may have any doubt, myself included, this probably signals how things this session will go and to whom the House will be working towards.

December 6, 2022


So stated the former President in reaction to the release of information from Twitter.

Trump's call to suspend the Constitution has met with a round of criticism from Republicans, showing the beginnings of a backbone for the first time since the insurrection.  Even at that, however, some would not, as the Republican guest on This Week who struggled not to answer the question about supporting Trump if he was the nominee and then finally stated that he would.

It does seem that, at long last, things may actually be beginning to move away from Trump in the GOP.  Trump's grown more extreme in recent months, and something like this is outright authoritarian.

Trump of course denied that he had called for suspending the constitution, and giving credit perhaps to his statements, his comments are in fact so odd and poorly thought out that it might not really be what he meant.  Most odd of all is the thought that, in 2022, he could be made the President via some odd declaration regarding the 2022 election, which is how I would interpret this really ignorant post.

It appears that the Democrats want to move South Carolina up as the state to cast its votes for the Presidential nominee first.  This would bump Iowa from its first in the nation status.

December 7, 2022

Mr. Trump will not win another election. His most glaring political strength today is his ability to energize Democrats, causing not only historic turnout but attracting gushers of campaign cash – for the opposition.

Fox News. 

February 2, 2023


Nikki Haley, former Governor of South Carolina and Ambassador to the United Nations, is running for the GOP nomination.  She's going to make her formal announcement on February 15.

Haley was born to Indian immigrant parents who are Sikhs.  She's an accountant by training.  She's presently a Methodist, having converted from Sikhism in 1997.  Her views straddle the Republican spectrum.  She makes an interesting contrast to Kamala Harris in that in some ways their story is similar, her parents resided in Canada before immigrating to the US and Harris' mother was Indian, her story fits the more conventional Indian immigrant story.  She's 51 years old, and therefore not a Boomer.

Haley reported called Trump upon making her decision, and Trump reportedly told her that if she felt that way, she should run.  The question now is how long will it be before Trump starts childishly insulting her and calling her by some juvenile nickname.

February 14, 2023

Nikki Haley announced she was running, officially, yesterday.

Oddly, the press just seems to have noticed that she's a bona fide Indian American yesterday, whereas this was widely celebrated in regard to Kamala Harris when she was running.

February 15, 2023

Harriet Hageman endorsed Donald Trump for the 2024 Presidential GOP nomination.

She really had no choice, Trump having endorsed her, and given her constituency, it was a wise move. 

Nonetheless, while I am on the outside of this, I don't expect Trump, or Biden, to be the nominees.  Frankly, given their ages, as I've noted before, I'd put there being well over a 50% chance that neither of them will still be with us, due to natural causes, by the November 24 election. They're basically at the upper edge of the male life span right now, and certainly Trump doesn't appear to be a model of health.

Added to that, I don't expect Trump to prevail in the process of choosing a GOP nominee this time, although I've been wrong on that before.

February 17, 2023

Well, this got weird quickly.

First, Nikki Haley called for politicians obtaining the age of 75 to receive a competency test.

Then, on CNN, this exchange happened.

Don Lemon: "Nikki Haley isn’t in her prime. Sorry, when a woman is considered to be in her prime in her 20s, and 30s, and maybe 40s…"

Poppy Harlow: "Are you talking about prime for like child bearing?"

"Don’t shoot the messenger! I’m just saying what the facts are! Google it!"

Ummm. . . eh?

February 23, 2023

Marianne Williamson has announced for the Democratic ticket.

Williamson is a left wing Democrat, 70 years of age, so another of the Boomer crowd of candidates.  She stands no chance.

March 3, 2023

Initiatives to legalize marijuana in Wyoming failed to gather enough signatures to be on the 2024 ballot.

Liz Cheney has joined the faculty of the University of Virginia.

March 5, 2023

CPAC's conference is on, or as it might be more appropriately called, the Tour De Wackadoodle.

Conservatives used to be serious, and this conference, sort of a rarefied meeting of Conservative eggheads.  Now it's the Comiccon of political events.  

Marjorie Taylor Green, Lauren Boebert and Donald Trump as speakers?  Come on.

March 20, 2023

This Week had an interview with Mike Pence on which demonstrates the extent to which a politician is willing to be a craven wussy in order to run for office.  In spite of being the target of the January 6 protesters, he's really hedging his bets on whether he'll support Donald Trump if Trump is nominated, and that's because, probably, he doesn't want to alienate that base.

You really can't have it both ways on this one.

On all the weekend shows, Ron Desantis took a lot of criticism for his unwillingness to fully back Ukraine, a new position on his part that was likely also a misstep in casting for Trumpist ballots.

Pence really stands no chance of getting the nomination. Desantis did, but those chances look weakened.

April 13, 2023

South Carolina's Tim Scott has formed an exploratory committee.


I know little about Scott, but the Republican Senator can't be disregarded, and would be harder for Trump to routinely childishly insult the way he normally does his opponents.

April 15, 2023

A recent edition of NPR's politics discussed everyone in the GOP now running, which is more people than I thought, although in some ways its because some of the names are those testing the waters, and not really running, yet.

The list of suspects and running is, starting with the openly declared:

Donald Trump. We all know who he is.

Announced: Nov. 15, 2022

Nikki Haley, who is discussed above.

Announced: Feb. 14, 2023

Vivek Ramaswamy.  Ramaswamy is a conservative businessman and well known, apparently, in conservative circles.

Announced: Feb. 21, 2023.

Asa Hutchinson. He's a well known former Arkansas Governor who is an outright opponent of Trump's.

Announced: April 2, 2023

Tim Scott, discussed above.

Turning to the testing the water, the names are.

Ron DeSantis.  He's been in the news a lot lately as the non Trump, Trump.

Mike Pence.  Vying for hte role of the world's most boring man, he's clearly on the edge of announcing.

Chris Sununu.  Well known Governor of New Hampshire and an anti-Trumper.

Glenn Youngkin.  Somewhat known Governor of Virginia.

Kristi Noem.  South Dakota right wing Governor.

Liz Cheney.  We all know who she is.  She's been mentioned, but I doubt she'll run.

John Bolton.  Also a known name, but I'd bet Trump's former National Security Adviser turned Trump opponent won't run.

Chris Christie. Former Governor of New Jersey and clearly thinking of running.

On Trump, he spoke at the NRA convention, effectively linking the NRA, again, to Trump's brand of anti-democratic authoritarianism.  This will ultimately come to be a mistake for the NRA which is branding itself as a force in opposition to the majority of residents of the republic in an extra legal fashion, rather than as a defender of legal rights.

April 16, 2023

The Wyoming Freedom Caucus has formed a Political Action Committee.

It also held a convention in Casper over the weekend, which is somewhat ironic in that the county's GOP organization has gone in the other direction, although in the last election it did elect two members of the caucus.  At any rate, it was noted that it "just" needed ten more members to control the House, which is actually a really tall order.

April 18, 2023

According to the Cowboy State Daily, Chuck Grey has vowed to go after residence requirements and strengthen them before the next election.

Wyoming's requirement had been 60 days prior to the Supreme Court striking it down, at which point the Court suggested 30 days was reasonable.  Wyoming simply went to no residency requirement in order to vote at that time.  

Grey also went after the media in his speech on Saturday.

It's clear he intends to keep his name in the news in this fashion, rather than on the clerical duties associated with his elective office.

The Daily also reports the head of the Wyoming Democratic Party gave a speech in which the leader proclamed he was "proud to be woke", thereby giving an example of why the Democrats can't win anything in the state.

Indeed, that declaration was an example of why more and more people nationwide register as independents.  The more extreme the parties become, the less people wish to be associated with them, left and right.

And with Grey obviously vying for a futurue office, by campaigning from the far right, and the Democrats having once again jumped off the electoral building, we'll close this chapter.

Last Prior Edition:

The 2024 Election, Part I. Early adopters.


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1 comment:

Neil A. Waring said...

Coverd almost all of what I also believe. Another nice post!