M577 howitzers in Ukraine. The British designed howitzer has been supplied to the Ukrainian forces by the United States, Canada and Australia. It is arguably the best towed artillery piece in the world. By Arsen Fedosenko - https://www.facebook.com/CinCAFU/posts/309101904718635, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=117964601
May 24, 2022
Yes, part six. In a normal year, there's one version of this all year long. This year, thanks to Russia forgetting that it's not 1945, we're in the sixth installment.
Which is to say that the war in Ukraine has caused the massive ongoing expansion of this thread.
Okay, situation wise, where are we?
Here's the history of the war to date, in the map that demonstrates the Russian advance. . . and retreat.
By MaitreyaVaruna & Bacon Noodles - Own work derived from File:2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine.svg, originally by ViewsridgeItself derivate of Russo-Ukraine Conflict (2014-present).svg by Rr016Missile attacks source: BNO NewsTerritorial control source: ISW & Template:Russo-Ukrainian War detailed map, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=115563226
Even now, what the initial Russian objects were remains clouded. The best guess is that Putin, seeing Ukraine headed towards increased alignment with the West, including culturally, economically, and formally, determined to intervene when he could before the opportunity evaporated. The only thing that was keeping Ukraine from joining the European Union and NATO was the ongoing war over the Donbas, stretching back to 2014.
After four years of Donald Trump's oddly pro Russian administration, in which US aid and support of Ukraine was done largely against Trump's will, Putin may also have thought that this period of time provided an added window, or again the only available opportunity. Whatever the case, a decade of Western military training and support of Ukraine's military, provided in no small part by US National Guard units, had radically altered the nature of the Ukrainian military, making it a modern Western one. Russia's, however, remained the poor army based on massed men with bad tactics and no NCO corps that it has been since 1917. Drunk on the myth of the victory over Nazi Germany in 1945, in which the Russians have been taught that the Red Army accomplished this largely on its own, and equipped with inferior weaponry, the Russians believed that they'd roll over Ukraine in just a few days. At that point, they likely would have simply incorporated all of Ukraine back into a Russian Empire, or perhaps taken much of the eastern half of the country and left a satellite rump state in the West.
Instead, a highly trained and motivated Ukrainian Army stopped them in their tracks to a large degree, and then began to reduce the Russians, who proved to be deployed ineptly and to fight just as poorly, in place. As this occurred, the West, led by President Biden, rallied to Ukraine and began to supply it with weapons. Had Donald Trump been President, this would not have occurred.
The weaponry supplied to Ukraine at first was mostly in the nature of Soviet pattern weaponry that former members of the Warsaw Pact retained, matching what Ukraine already used. Included in what they were receiving, however, were Western anti tank and anti-aircraft missiles, which proved to be absolutely devastating. Even early on, some Western small arms came in, however. Now, as Ukraine has regained the ground in the north that it lost, much more in the way of Western equipment is coming in, including Western artillery. Supplies to Ukraine are increasing in lethality, as the West has gone from small arms, ammunition and missiles, to larger weapons systems.
Russia has proven unable to deal with any of this. Speculation that it would overcome the Ukrainians in the north proved completely in error. Taking the city of Mariupol took weeks, assuming that it even has really been fully taken now. Speculation that withdrawing from the north meant forces would redeploy in the east failed to take into account that Russian forces have been so downgraded that many units have been reduced to ineffectual.
Economic boycotts of Russia are wrecking the Russian economy and may be approach a point where that will beyond repair. Efforts to replenish and resupply Russian forces have failed. Open criticism of Russian military performance inside of Russia, by pro-government persons and entities, has started to increase. An organization of retired Russian officers has called for a full declaration of war combined with mobilization, something that the Russians probably can't pull off now. Ukraine has been open that its war aim now is to recover all of the land lost in the 2014 Russian invasion.
Russia's actions have managed to unite the West to a degree it hasn't been in decades. Its military is discredited in every sense, including morally. How this ends is now being discussed openly, but no matter how it ends, it will be some species of Russian defeat.
May 26, 2022
Moscow has raised the age limit, previously 40, to 50, in which volunteer for service in the Russian army.
May 26, 2022, cont.
Governor Gordon Thanks Law Enforcement Personnel for Ukraine
Donations
CHEYENNE, Wyo. – Governor Gordon has extended his
appreciation to members of Wyoming’s law enforcement community for donating
used equipment to assist the people of Ukraine.
Coordinated by the Wyoming Office of Homeland Security, the statewide effort
involved outreach to multiple agencies across the state. The effort resulted in
the donation of more than 200 interior and exterior ballistic vests; panels
that can be used to assemble an additional 80 vests; rifle plates for the
vests; helmets and boots. In addition, six pallets of medical-grade wipes were
donated.
“I want to thank law enforcement in Wyoming for stepping up and providing this
needed equipment for the Ukrainian people,” Governor Gordon said.
Donations came from across the state, including Albany, Carbon, Converse and
Sublette County Sheriff’s Offices; police departments in Glenrock, Powell, Rock
Springs, Sheridan and Torrington; Wyoming Division of Criminal Investigation;
Wyoming Highway Patrol; and the Wyoming Livestock Board.
-END-
May 28, 2022
Russian forces have been trying to take Severodonetsk, but they've failed to encircle the city and their progress has been slow. They have, however, entered part of the city.
They've also been countering a Ukrainian offensive attempt to reclaim Kherson.
Ukrainian partisans units are now operating in the South in areas occupied by the Russians.
May 30, 2022
The Russians, back up by artillery, have been attempting a direct assault of Severodonetsk, abandoning the envelopment strategy they had been deploying.
Orthodoxy in Ukraine saw a split in loyalties before the war commenced, with the head of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church seeking, and receiving, recognition from the head of the Greek Orthodox Church of autocephalous status. When that occurred, the Russian Orthodox Church, which it had been part of, refused to recognize that. Now, that portion of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church which remained loyal to the Russian Metropolitan declared its full independence.
This is a confusing situation because if it is independent, its position seemingly now matches that of the larger portion of the church was severed from Moscow prior to the war.
June 1, 2022
The EU has agreed to mostly end oil imports from Russia by the end of the year.
The Russians have largely taken Severodonetsk, but at the same time the Ukrainians are doing well near Kherson.
Belorussia is releasing stores of military equipment to Russia.
Some Russian recruitment centers in Russia have been subjected to attacks by Russians.
June 4, 2022
In spite of dire predictions, fighting goes on in Severondonetsk. Indeed, it seems Ukrainian units backfilled areas taken by the Russians after they were through then. They appear largely stalled almost everywhere.
After repeated pleas for them, the US is indicating it will supply four HIMARS systems to Ukraine.
Note, it's only four.
The system is incredibly advanced and accurate. It's replaced heavy artillery, along with other similar rocket systems in the US inventory.
The rockets are GPS guided, which results in an interesting open additional step for the U.S. in that U.S. satellites are now openly and obviously part of Ukrainian targeting, or will soon be.
June 6, 2022
Russia has hit Kyiv with missiles again, striking a railway repair station.
Russian Maj. Gen Roman Kutuzov was killed in action.
A Ukrainian counter-attack has taken back parts of Severodonetsk.
June 10, 2022
The Russians are in fact deploying T-62s in Ukraine, a tank first introduced in 1961, a tank that is generally regarded as having been outclassed by the British Chieftain and the American M60 shortly after its introduction. They are also pulling mines out of storage that were manufactured in the 1950s, and 152mm howitzers and MRLS systems that were in storage and are of older models.
Front lines have been nearly static.
June 16, 2022
Russo Ukrainian War
Fighting remains fairly static and in fact is still going on in Severondonetsk. Ukraine has desperately been asking for more artillery.
Ikea is selling its Russian factories.
War On ISIL
A U.S. ground raid in Syria today resulted in the capture of a senior ISIL leader.
June 17, 2022
The leaders of Germany, France, Italy and Romania committed to not requiring Ukraine to terms to end the war. In effect, this is a pledge of unconditional support.
Up to three American volunteers have been reported missing in action in Ukraine.
June 18, 2022
Russo Ukrainian War.
Commander of Russian Airborne Forces Colonel-General Andrey Serdyukov has been relieved of his command due to the poor performance of Russian airborne forces in the war.
Afghanistan.
A terrorist attack in Kabul targeted a Sikh temple.
June 24, 2022
Russo Ukrainian War.
Ukraine has ordered its forces to withdraw from Sievierodonetsk
Ukraine has been approved as a candidate for membership in the EU, the Russian war effort therefore having brought about one of the very things Putin hoped to prevent. Obtaining membership will require Ukraine to meet a set of conditions, including an ongoing committement to democracy and rooting out entrenched corruption in the government.
The Russian Navy has been ordered to mine Ukraine's Black Sea ports.
Ukraine has pummeled installations on Snake Island.
June 28, 2022
Russia has defaulted in its debt, the first time a major country has done so since 1918.
A Russian missle strike hit a shopping mall in Kremenchuk.
Russian manpower shortages have run up against a Russian desire to avoid a general mobilization, which is interesting in that there's nothing other than public opinion that really precludes the Russians calling one. They're obviously reluctant to do so, as it would of course mean that they're have a difficult time with a much smaller neighbor.
June 28, 2022, cont
Statement by President of the Republic of Finland Sauli Niinistö on 28 June 2022
Office of the President of the Republic of Finland
Press release 41/2022
28 June 2022
Today in Madrid, before the beginning of the NATO Summit, we had a thorough meeting with President of Türkiye Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Prime Minister of Sweden Magdalena Andersson, facilitated by Secretary General of NATO Jens Stoltenberg.
As a result of that meeting, our foreign ministers signed a trilateral memorandum which confirms that Türkiye will at the Madrid Summit this week support the invitation of Finland and Sweden to become members of NATO. The concrete steps of our accession to NATO will be agreed by the NATO Allies during the next two days, but that decision is now imminent.
Our joint memorandum underscores the commitment of Finland, Sweden and Türkiye to extend their full support against threats to each other’s security. Us becoming NATO Allies will further strengthen this commitment.
Over the past weeks, Türkiye has raised its concerns over the threat of terrorism. Finland has constantly taken these concerns seriously. Finland condemns terrorism in all its forms and manifestations. As a NATO member, Finland will commit fully to the counterterrorism documents and policies of NATO.
As we enhance our cooperation on counterterrorism, arms exports and extraditions, Finland naturally continues to operate according to its national legislation.
I am delighted to conclude this stage on Finland’s road to NATO membership. I now look forward to fruitful conversations on Finland’s role in NATO with our future Allies here in Madrid.
June 30, 2022
The big overall news is that the way is now clear for NATO membership for Finland and Sweden to go to the member countries parliaments for approval, with approval almost assured.
In large part, Russia launched this war to keep Ukraine from entering the EU and then later joining NATO. During the war its drawn close to both, and now NATO has expanded.
Russia has withdrawn from Snake Island, which it took early in the war. The island likely never had any strategic value to their war effort and overall they more than paid for taking it.
July 3, 2022
Ukrainian forces withdrew from Lysychansk, allowing the Russians to take the city.
July 7, 2022
No doubt expressing frustration with the NATO support to Ukraine, lead by the United States, a Putin ally threatened that Russia may seek to "take back" Alaska.
The war itself was static yesterday, perhaps expressing a Russian pause, probably by necessity, after recent gains.
July 15, 2022
Russia is looking at procuring drones from Iran.
Russia is also conducting a largescale recruiting drive for volunteer battalions raised for the war, and from its federal regions. This is interesting in that they're not really conventional soldiers in the Russian Army, but sort of regional volunteers.
Russia has been having trouble raising manpower for the war, and it hsa been unwilling to formally mobilize for various reasons.
July 22, 2022
In an extremely unusual wartime deal, Russia and Ukraine both entered into agreements with the UN and Turkey which allow for grain exports from the region as well Russian fertilizer to safely leave Black Sea ports.
While neutrals intervening on freedom of commerce and freedom of the seas to allow such things to happen has happened in the past, warring parties agreeing to such an arrangment is extremely unusual.
July 27, 2022
Current state of the war according to the British Ministry of Defense:
The Russians seem to be trying to consolidate their gains in the Donbas region prior to attempting to annex it. The Ukrainians are trying to take it back against heavy odds.
July 28, 2022
Ukraine has used percision U.S. missles to wipe out the use of the Antonivskyi Bridge across the Dnieper River. The .9 mile long structure was used by the Russians to supply their forces at Kherson.
Russia launched massive missle strikes against Ukrainian targets yesterday, including Kyiv.
The Russians are down to only two ground offensive operations as they apparently not able to sustain more. They're also importing non Russian workers into the Donbas due to Ukrainian civil resistance to going back to work in the region.
August 3, 2022
Red China is conducting military maneuvers in a childish reaction to Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi visiting Taiwan.
Senior US figures have visited Tawian before, but not for 25 years. In the intervening quarter century China's ecnomic importance has risen dramatically, something which was exposed due to COVID 19 shortages, but overall the country is much weaker than generally supposed, or than it itself figues. It has started, in all regards, to act much in the same way that late stage Imperial Germany did.
The United States killed a senior Al Qaeda leader who had particiapted in the 9/11 attacks by way of a drone strike inside of Aghanistan.
The US of course withdrew from the country in 2021, but still asserts the right to strike Al Qaeda and other figures who are operating within the country.
August 3, cont:
The U.S. Senate voted 95 to 1 to admit Finland and Norway to NATO.
Josh Hawley, Missouri, cast the only note vote.
ugust 5, 2022
Taking a childish page out of North Korea's temper tantrum cartoon book, China fired missiles yesterday to show that they're feeling upset and that they have missiles, this of course following Nancy Pelosi's visit to the island.
A Ukrainian offensive in the Kherson Oblast, southern Ukraine, has caused Russia to halt its offensive operations and redeploy troops in the south and Crimea. This is pretty ample proof of Russia's inability to conduct multiple operations at one time, and of their fear that the Ukrainian offensive may start regaining lost ground.
Russia has been shelling near a Ukrainian nuclear power plant which is the largest in Europe, repeating its earlier stupidity from a different nuclear site earlier in the war.
Power use restrictions have been going into place in Europe due to the withdrawal of Russian petroleum.
August 6, 2022
China has cut cooperation with the United States over a host of issues, including climate change, due to its pique over Nancy Pelosi's trip to Taiwan.
North Korea entered the game and is also criticizing the US over the same matter, which of course is of little importance as North Korea is pretty much universally irrelevant except as a regional menace.
Speaking of North Korea. . .
North Korea has offered Russia 100,000 troops to fight in Ukraine. It's been noted that this would mean that Russia would have to feed 100,000 North Koreans that North Korea has trouble doing.
I doubt Russia will take this offer up as it would probably be more trouble than it would be worth, in spite of the infusion of 100,000 men. If it does, the North Koreans will principally be cannon fodder.
A top Russian researcher on hypersonic weapons has been arrested for high treason.
Israel launched airstrikes into Gaza to address threats it states its identified. Retaliation came in the form of missile strikes.
August 8, 2022
Putin has apparently relieved three senior Russian generals from their commands within the past week.
The parties have entered into a truce which seems to be holding.
August 9, 2022
Russia is believed to have sustained over 80,000 casualties in Ukraine so far, of which reportedly 42,000 have been killed.
In comparison, the Russians lost around 15,000 men in their war in Afghanistan.
The U.S. is sending an additional $1B in weapons to Ukraine.
August 12, 2022
Russia has been recruiting from its prison system for soldiers, offering them the end of their prison terms if they will enlist in the Russian army to fight in Ukraine.
It is also mobilizing, or putting on a war time footing, its defense industry.
August 14, 2022
A news report holds that Ukrainian partisan action is increasing in occupied areas.
Ukraine whiped out another bridge that was vital to the Russians resupplying their troops at Kherson.
August 15, 2022
The Russians are attempting to take Donestk.
August 16, 2022
The Russian Army has left 20,000 troops stranded on the western bank of the Dnipro due to a withdrawal made necessary by Ukrainian action near Kherson.
August 17, 2022
Apparent partisan action or commando action set off a Russian ammo dump in Crimea.
August 21, 2022
Al-Sabab seized a hotel in Mogodeshu which has now been retaken by Somalian security forces which in turn freed over 100 captives that were seized by the Islamic militants in the raid.
If there's any good news in this it would be that Somalia is sufficiently organized now so as to have security forces.
Russian ultra nationalist philosopher Alexander Dugin's daughter, Daria, was killed by a car bomb outside of Moscow.
August 23, 2022
Ukraine has announced that 9,000 of its troops have died in the war so far.
August 24, 2022
- United States/Islamic militants
The U.S. conducted an air strike on Iranian backed militants in Syria after a recent drone attack on an installaation the U.S. uses in Syria.
Russia has placed approximately 1,000 children, presumably orphaned in some fashion, with Russian adoptive familes. Relocating children with the intent to destroy their culture is defined as genocide.
Reluctance by the residents of Luhansk to continue to fight in the Russian war has caused Russia to deploy sercurity forces to the oblast.
August 29, 2022
Russian ultra nationalist philosopher Alexander Dugin's daughter, Daria, was killed by a car bomb outside of Moscow.
A new Russian anti Putin Russian organization has taken credit for this attack.
August 30, 2022
Ukraine has launched an offensive in the Kherson Oblast.
The move was expected, and publicly announced yesterday. It may determine the results of the war.
Last prior edition:
Recent related threads:
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2 comments:
Is it just wishful thinking on my part, or is the Pepto Bismol colored map of Russia's occupied areas in Ukraine beginning to look strikingly like Vietnam?
Tom
Sheridan, WY
You know, it really does look like Vietnam. . .
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