Sunday, August 23, 2026

How did war gamers get the war with Iran right, before it started, and the Administration didn't?

The other day I posted an item noting that old Avalon Hills gamers could have predicted the outcome of our ill advised and illegal war with Iran.  

Turns out, they did.  

I hadn't realized that at all when I posted that, but somebody I know well and who also likes hex and counter games did, and pointed it out.  

GMT Games has it as part of their Next War series in the form of Next War: Iran.

Here's GMT Games write up on its game:

Description

The Middle East has long been a hobgoblin for foreign powers and, as much as Afghanistan, also a graveyard of empires. Sitting squarely astride ancient trade routes and with the added impetus of the world's addiction to oil, the area has been a hot spot for centuries.

Now, with the old regime teetering and losing its grip, Iran makes a bid for forcing the West to recognize its complete sovereignty and control over its own affairs by striking at the one thing they care about: the flow of oil. Mining the Straits of Hormuz and declaring it closed to all traffic, Iran defies the world. The US, and perhaps some of its allies, takes action to re-open the straits and get the black gold flowing to the world again.

Next War: Iran is the sixth game in the Next War series. It is unique in the series in that the Allied player has to do the attacking while the non-Allied player attempts to defend its territory against neo-imperial oppression. With a long logistical tail, few true allies in the region, and the menace of Iran's A2AD capabilities, re-opening the Straits is a tall order.

The game came out in 2024.

Note the difficulty the war poses:

With a long logistical tail, few true allies in the region, and the menace of Iran's A2AD capabilities, re-opening the Straits is a tall order.

Gee. . . . 

Maybe Pete should have bought a few boxes of Next War:  Iran rather than worrying about low T.

The game was, we'd note, the 2024 Charles S. Roberts award winner for Best Hypothetical Game.

The Agrarian's Lament: The GOP's useful idiots in agriculture.

The Agrarian's Lament: The GOP's useful idiots in agriculture.: An old friend of mine who is a rancher has been somewhat active in this year's election cycle.  He is, of course, a far right Republican...

The GOP's useful idiots in agriculture.

An old friend of mine who is a rancher has been somewhat active in this year's election cycle.  He is, of course, a far right Republican.

I say of course as just about every rancher and farmer in Wyoming over the age of 40, and quite a few over the age of 35, are diehard right wing full blown MAGA Republicans.  Below the age of 40 things start to change a lot.  Most are Republicans, but a lot aren't diehard.  They're Republicans the same way everyone in Wyoming is a Republican, pretty much.  Generally conservative.

But above 40, they're in lockstep with Donald Trump.

My friend, this cycle, had a big Chuck Gray up near the DOT fence.  This wasn't too surprising as his grandson works for Gray.* **

Well, now, all of a sudden the noted friend is posting on the disaster of letting foreign beef into the country.  So are a bunch of other ranchers I know.

The Republican Party has been pretty much screwing ranchers and farmers since 1929.  It was the Democrats who save farmers and ranchers during the Great Depression.  Most small and mid sized ranches would have been utterly destroyed but for the Taylor Grazing Act.  

The Trump Administration, for its part, looks at farmers and ranchers the way the Democrats once looked at African Americans, people who could reliably be counted on to vote for the party no matter what.  In recent election cycles African Americans proved they were no longer reliable.  So far, people in Agriculture aren't showing any thought at all.

Indeed, they're showing cognitive disconnected.

This morning I've seen all sorts of complaints from ranchers about how they're getting killed in this economy, as noted.

And now Trump's bringing in below market cost foreign beef.

No shit.  YOU VOTED FOR IT.

Inflation, particularly of fuel, caused by Donald Trump's pet illegal war. The same with fertilizer costs.

WAKE THE CRAP UP.

The GOP is not coming to save you.  It's coming to screw you.

Indeed, trade talks just broke off with Canada.

Double digit inflation, caused by a massive rise in energy costs, is about to occur.

Footnotes:

Gray has more affection for Trump than Natalie Harp and Melanija Knavs combined.

The grandson is an interesting case in and of himself.  He's undoubtedly the first member of his extended family to go to university.  He's in law school right now.  He's also a diehard MAGA, and indeed, maybe even beyond that.  Now the question of how that happens is another matter.

The common myth, and it is a myth, about young people in conservative homes is that they go to college, where they lose all of their values, and their faith, emerging hardcore screaming liberals if not Bolsheviks.  This is, it is believed, because they're indoctrinated in college by leftist professors.

It's largely bull and in the scientific disciplines definitely bull.  Majors in geology, for example, aren't going to have time for liberal indoctrination.

For that matter, majors in English probably don't either.

So what's going on here.

Well, a person from a really conservative Protestant background may in fact find a lot of what they learn in college shocking.  The Earth isn't 5,000 years old.  Evolution isn't a fib.  Conquering the West wasn't bringing enlightenment to an oppressed people and, in fact, some of those being conquered where already Christian.  The US isn't bestowed by God with a new Israelite like mission, and for that matter, the modern state of Israel does some outright horrible things.

Faced with that onslaught, young people are in fact faced with the choice of accepting that Pastor Jim back at his own do it yourself Evangelical Church is flat out wrong on a lot of stuff, and Mom and Dad are ignorant, or concluding that everything they're being taught is a fib.

Most will conclude, to some degree, that Pastor Jim is wrong on a lot, and that Mom and Dad are ignorant on a lot of stuff.

Now, I'll note, this shouldn't impact member of the Apostolic faiths at all, but in the US some Apostolic Christians are heavily Protestantized and have bought in, through ignorance, to a lot of what the Evangelical far right believes.

Anyhow, a lot of this is about to collapse on an enormous scale, as we'll soon see.

**There was a good Republican candidate running against Gray, Christensen.  He had worked for the BLM.

Well, we're getting instead a Californian who worked for his daddy's radio station.

Friday, August 23, 1946. British create North Rhine-Westphalia.

The Big Sleep was released.


The British created North Rhine-Westphalia or North-Rhine/Westphalia, Germany's the populous state

Border guards at Khist-Tepe, Afghanistan, discovered Greek silver coins left behind by the armies of Alexander the Great.

Last edition:

Saturday, August 17, 1946. All The King's Men.

Monday, August 23, 1926. Rudolph Valentino passes, as does Dr. Charles William Eliot.

Legendary silent screen leading man Rudolph Valentino died of peritonitis at age 31.


A huge star of his day, he remains a well known figure of the era.

Dr. Charles William Eliot, the longest serving president of Harvard, died at age 91.  He transformed the university from a respected provincial college into a preeminent research university. 

Theodore Roosevelt called him "the only man in the world I envy."

Last edition:

Sunday, August 15, 1926. Martyrs of the Cristero War and open rebellion.

Wednesday, August 23, 1911. British secretly plan for war.

The Committee of Imperial Defence met in secret  to discuss military strategy for a war against Germany. 

Interim Mexican President  Francisco León de la Barra announced that revolutionary forces had violated the established truce during the Mexican Revolution and released Huerta to advance in Morelos.


Last edition:

Tuesday, August 22, 1911. Secrets

Friday, August 23, 1901. The murder of Rev. Heese.

German missionary Reverend Daniel Heese was shot to death along with a young black child, on orders of Lt. Harry "Breaker" Morant of the Bushveldt Carbineers.

Rev. Heese and and the child were the  surviving witnesses to the Carbineers' murder the prior day of four Boer schoolteachers and four Boer soldiers.

Morant was a British born officer who had worked a variety of jobs in Australia after emigrating there, including breaking horses.

The murders reflected the growing irregular and homicidal nature of the British war effort, which was reflected most strongly amongst special dominion formations.  Morant would become an Australian folk hero, and the murder and subsequent trial are the subject of an excellent movie.

On the same day, the Ladies' Commission" appointed by the British government and lead by Millicent Fawcett began its inspection of British concentration camps.

Last edition:

Thursday, August 22, 1901. Glider failure.

Wednesday, August 23, 1876. Treaty No. 6 signed at Fort Carlton, Saskatchewan

Treaty No. 6 was signed between the the Crown and the Plains and Woods Cree, Assiniboine, and other band governments at Fort Carlton and Fort Pitt.  The first signatures were today.

Last edition:

Tuesday, August 22, 1876. St. Louis votes to secede from St. Louis.

Best posts of the week of August 16, 2026 and the Feral and Agrarian Weeks.

The week the Freedom Caucus met a well deserved death in Wyoming.

Throwing the pollster off . . .



Wars and Rumors of War, 2026. Part 8. Donald Trump, China's (and Russia's) greatest ally edition.










The Feral Week.

Wyoming Woman's 620-Mile Mongol Derby Quest Ends Unconscious In A River



The Agrarian Week.

Hageman: California 'Failed All Of Us' And Made Colorado River Water Crisis Worse

You'd think somebody who has an agricultural background wouldn't say something this ignorant.

5,500-Acre Wyoming Ranch And Hunting Destination Hits Market For Nearly $30M

California dairy exodus will change crops, affecting southern Great Plains elevators

Another Trump Call For Imported Beef Riles Up Wyoming Ranchers


Going Feral: Trump administration plan could bring new roads to...

Last edition:

Best Posts of the week of August 9, 2026. The Feral Week and the Agrarian Week.

Friday, August 21, 2026

Monday, August 21, 1876. Readjusting Texas.

Andrews County, Martin County, and King County, Texas were created.


Wegefarth County was abolished and Collingsworth and Donley as well as portions of Briscoe, Childress, Gray, Hall, and Wheeler counties established over time.

Last edition:

Sunday, August 20, 1876. Murder of Preacher Smith.

Subsidiarity Economics 2026. The Times more or less locally, Part 7. The jackass in a tin barn edition.

We weren't really ready to start a new one of these, but Chuck Gray has been in such rare form recently as it starts to look like he's going to lose in ten days and his dreams of a carpetbagging political career be crushed, that it mandates it.

Gray, as Secretary of State, sits on a variety of state boards and has been using that position to attempt to advance his campaign for higher office, any higher office, all along.  Generally in the global warming is a fib camp, he at one time was okay with development projects of all types but now is anti "woke wind".  Lots of people don't like the viewscape and land use aspect of wind and solar farms, and he's hoping to tap into that dislike, but he's such a disagreeable pissant he can't seem to say it that way.  Nor can he explain his prior positions.

The real gem in this is that he almost voted to preclude use of an access road to a power substation that provides power to farmers on the basis that it might receive electrical power from solar farms or wind farms or provide power to data centers.


When the State treasurer noted that this meant, he changed his vote, but had to blame the whole thing on somebody else.

Data centers are now big in the news around here, and for good reason.  Gray is opposing them as he figures it's good politics.  Put a gigantic strip mine in over the same area, and he'd be all for it.  It's difficult to tell from one moment to the next if Republican candidates this year are members of the Flat Earth Society or Greenpeace.

Gray is particularly disgusting.  He's consistently rude and nasty.  It's difficult to understand why anyone would vote for him, unless they're really duped.

I wonder how this news works for people like Gray:

Huge 500-MW Solar Project Wants To Build Natural Gas Power Plant Near Glenrock

Some other economic news:

Wyoming’s First Nickel Discovery Heads Into High-Tech, High-Stakes Drilling Phase

August 9, 2026.

Casper Couple Proves You Can Make Award-Winning Wine In Wyoming


August 14, 2026

Oil supply disruptions due to King Donny's war are predicated to last well into 2027 if not through it.

Diesel is up over $5.00/gallon here locally. There's no way on earth prices like that don't cause a rise in the price of everything else.

And, related to that:

Zoinks! Gas Is $6 A Gallon In Muddy Gap — That's 42% Higher Than Wyoming Average


And in another energy story:

Black Hills Energy wants to hike electric rates 32% in northeast Wyoming


August 20 2026

The US debt is now an unsustainable and unconscionable $40T.

cont:

An Open Letter to Scott Bessent: Why You're Wrong and I'm Right

But you're the one with power, so your error is dangerous


August 21, 2026

Why the US economy is ringing alarm bells


Bessent was sent out yesterday to try to calm fears, but ended up being ridiculed.  The US is buying back bonds which did help stabilize the bond market, at least for now.

People have been wondering about the appeal of Democratic Socialism all of a sudden.  I think this states it pretty well:


I'm not for all of those things.  I'm not for a universal basic income, or universal childcare.  But the point is very well made.

And this:


First of all, beef prices have nothing to do with Joe Biden.  Secondly, the "thank you for our attention" line is stupid.

The real stupidity here is that American agriculturalist support the GOP, which routinely hurts them.  Ranchers and Farmers are solidly members of the Leopards Won't Eat My Face Party.

Last edition:

Subsidiarity Economics 2026. The Times more or less locally, Part 6. The screwworm edition.