Ukrainian Christmas stamp.
November 11, 2022.As amazing as it is to think it, it's actually the case. Russia is being routed in Ukraine.
But maybe it's not really that amazing, except for one thing. We'll get to that.
The last war I can think of, offhand, in which Russian forces performed really well was during the 1812+ stage of the Napoleonic Wars, keeping in mind that I'm very ignorant on the Crimean War.
That's 210 years ago.
The Imperial Russian Army preformed badly during the Russo Japanese War. It had mixed performance during World War One, but in the end, the Germans defeated Russia.
Sure, the Red Army won in the Russian Civil War, but any army performs well in a civil war, if its truly fought out, as the other army is also made up of people with the same training or lack thereof.
It lost to the Pole is the Russo Polish War that followed the Civil War.
And tiny Finland fought it to a standstill in the Winter War.
Then there's World War Two.
Now, let's given credit where credit is due. The Russian Army killed more Germans than any other army in the field. . . and the Germans killed a lot of Russians too.
Indeed, with a massive numerical advantage it didn't really manage to get its act together until Fall, 1942, for the most part, although there are real and notable exceptions.
One of the things that those real and notable exceptions tell us, like it or not, is that Stalin did a pretty good job of reforming an army he'd destroyed in the 30s and giving it 11th hour backbone.
After the Fall of 1942, while it hemorrhaged deserters like sand in the hand, it preformed well, even though it preformed well as an armed mob.
But since then? What has it done well, really?
Hmmm. . .
Afghanistan?
Well, it lost.
Syria?
The Newark New Jersey police department could probably turn in a real performance there and look impressive.
Under trained troops, bad equipment, no doctrinal flexibility. These are Russian things.
And the Ukrainian Army, having been reformed since 2014, is a Western Army. It's more like the Army of Poland or even West Germany than Russia, now.
Ukraine has taken back its territory west of the Dnipr.
Slava Ukraine.
November 15, 2022
U.S. intelligence indicates that Putin may have delayed the Russian withdrawal from Kherson in order to attempt to preclude it from being viewed as a Biden victory.
If so, it's an interesting example of how Russia regards American domestic politics.
Today, Russia mounted a massive rocket attack on Ukraine, sending two missiles into Poland, where they killed two.
November 16, 2022
President Zelenskyy addressed the G20 and gave a 10 point peace plan which included a Russian withdrawal from all Ukrainian territory. It can safely be assumed that Russia will reject this.
The missile that went down in Poland now appears to have been an errant Ukrainian one.
November 18, 2022
Russo Ukrainian War
Col. Vadim Boyko, a Russian army officer who was head of a military academy and involved in Putin's conscription attempt, has reportedly committed suicide, although reports also hold he was found with five shots in his chest.
Russia pounded Ukraine with missiles again yesterday.
North Korea
The BBC reports:
North Korea has launched an intercontinental ballistic missile with enough range to hit the US mainland, Japan's defence minister says.
The West in general and the US in particular has dinked around with North Korea so long while it worked on this project that the result is that the American population is now vulnerable to an ICBM strike by North Korea. There's no doubt that North Korea will attempt to leverage this against the US.
No US President has been effective in dealing with the Communist Stalinist Theme Park under its current leadership. As a result, a real question has now developed on what the US can and should do to protect its interests before North Korea is fully nuclear capable.
November 20, 2022
North Korea.
North Korea's dictator/monarch was photographed showing his ICBM's to his 14-year-old daughter this week, thereby actually confirming her existence.
The United States and South Korea have been conducting practice aerial missions. I'd frankly regard a U.S. airstrike at this point on North Korea's nuclear capacity as not unlikely, although less than 50%.
November 23, 2022
North Korea.
Kim Yo Jong stated that the United States would face “a more fatal security crisis” if it presses forward with its plan to seek condemnation of North Korea's missile behavior in the UN Security Council.
This is a clear threat of violence of some sort.
Russo Ukrainian War
Ukrainian security forces raid the Pechersk Lavra Orthodox Christian monastery in Kyiv on the basis that it feared the monastery might be used for sabotage.
This points out the complicated nature of the relationship between the three branches of Apostolic Christianity in Ukraine. Before the war commenced, the Ukrainian Orthodox Church, which had been a branch of the Russian Orthodox Church, sought and received autocephalous status from the Greek Metropolitan of Constantinople. This was condemned by the Russian Orthodox Church, which is the largest branch of Eastern Orthodoxy, and a schism developed. Some of the Ukrainian Orthodox did not go along with the separation and remained subject to the Metropolitan of Moscow.
The other branch is the Eastern Rite Ukrainian Catholic Church, which is in communion with Rome.
The invasion of Ukraine was justified by Putin in part as being in defense of Orthodoxy. Russia under Putin has been highly resistant to social trends in the West and in part this is scene as an aspect of this topic.
November 24, 2022
Russo Ukrainian War.
Russia has been concentrating on destroying infrastructure targets, energy generation in particular, the last several days. The attacks have been massive in extent and appear to be motivated by the same mistaken reasoning that was behind the Blitz by the Luftwaffe and the Allied strategic bombing campaign of World War Two, that such efforts destroy civilian will to fight.
Iranian Insurrection
Protests have spread to the point where Iran is now regarded to be in a state of pre insurrection and the government is having to deploy armed forces in an attempt to address it.
December 4, 2022
El Salvador/Central American Criminal Crisis
The government of El Salvador deployed a huge number of troops and paramilitary police to enter a gang controlled area near the capitol yesterday.
Russo Ukrainian War
The Ukrainian Army has crossed the Dnipro.
December 5, 2022
Two Russian air force bombers were destroyed by an explosion on the runway at Engels Air Force Base, which is deep inside of Russia. Explosions also happened at a Russian Air Force base at Saratov.
Speculation is widespread that these are a deep Ukrainian drone strike. Both locations are near each other, and they have been used for strikes on Ukraine. They are near Saratov on the Volga.
December 6, 2022
Russia continues to engage in massive missile strikes on Ukraine, but for the second day in a row Ukraine has hit back with a drone strike on an airfield, this time upon Kursk.\
These strikes contrast with each other in that the Russian strikes are against civil targets, while the Ukrainian ones are on Russian air assets. Russian behavior is making it easier for Ukraine to hit targets inside of Russia without Western protests, and the Russians seem to be baffled as to how this occurs. News about the strikes has come from Russian media, with the Russians seemingly being stunned that it's occurring.
What is not clear is the extent to which Ukraine can continue this, and whether these raids are essentially experimental. If Ukraine can manufacture these long range drones in sufficient numbers, Russian air assets will have to be pulled back to more distant bases and logistical stockpiles in Russia will become endangered.
December 22, 2022
100,400 Russian soldiers have died in the war.
That figure is roughly twice the number of Americans who died in the very long Vietnam War, the last major war fought by the United States (yes, there have been wars since then, but not on that scale). Added to that, in 1973 when that war ended for the US, it's population exceeded that of Russia's now.
15,000 Russians died in Afghanistan.
President Zelensky spoke personally to Congress this week.
December 26, 2022
Putin suggested he's ready for talks, while blaming the lack of talks on everyone else.
He's also hinted that the property of Russian oligarchs who are not supporting the war may be confiscated.
Russian assaults, which are not achieving much, remain unabated
FWIW, Christmas, on the Orthodox calendar, is January 7, 2023, on its liturgical calendar. While I wouldn't put too much stock in it, if there'd be a calendar based timing for some sort of dramatic peace related event coming from the Russians, and I'm not saying that there is, that'd be a good date for it.
December 27, 2022
President Zelenskyy has indicated that he's relying on India to advance a peace proposal to Russia.
In spite of news of peace talks being a possibility appearing in the Western press, it's highly doubtful that any peace negotiations will start any time soon.
December 27, cont.
Russia today issued an ultimatum to Ukraine to accept Russian terms or the Russian army will settle the issue, according to Russia.
This would seem to suggest that Russia is on the verge of launching a new offensive and presumably it has some confidence that this one will be successful, something of which there is no guaranty.
December 29, 2022
Alexei Maslov, a senior Russian Army armor officer who had fallen under criticism, has been reported dead within a day of a meeting with Putin being cancelled.
Pavel Antov, age 69, a Russian sausage tycoon, fell to his death at an Indian hotel. His friend, Vladimir Budanov, died at the same hotel four days prior.
An unusual number of oligarchs and Russian figures of note have died since the war started. Antov adds to the list, since the war commenced, that includes the following:
Leonid Shulma, age 60, by suicide. Igor Nosov, age 43, stroke. Alexander Tyulakov age 61, suicide. Mikhail Watford age 66. Vasily Melnikov age 43 Wife and two sons found dead beside him. Vladislav Avayevage 51. Wife and 13-year-old daughter found dead beside him Sergey Protosenya age 55, Hanged from a handrail, wife and daughter found dead in their beds with blunt axe wounds and stab wounds. Andrei Krukovsky age 33. Fell from cliff. Alexander Subbotin age 31. Drug induced heart attack. Yuri Voronov age 61. Gunshot wounds to the head, pistol found next to his body. Dan Rapoport age 52. Fall. Ravil Maganov age 67. Fell out of a hospital window. Ivan Pechorin age 39. Fell off boat and drowned. Vladimir Sungorkin age 68. Stroke. Anatoly Gerashchenko age 72. Fall. Pavel Pchelnikov age 52. Suicide. Vyacheslav Taran age 53 Helicopter crash. Grigory Kochenov age 41. Fall from balcony during police search of apartment. Dmitriy Zelenov age 50. Injuries sustained in fall.
That's rather odd.
December 30, 2022
United States v. ISIL
The US announced it has killed about 700 ISIL operatives over the past year, with this taking place in Syria and Iraq.
Russo Ukrainian War
Russia continues its massive missle campaign against Ukrainian infrastruture, clearly intending to completely destroy it.
Last prior Edition.
Wars and Rumors of War, 2022. The Russo Ukrainian War Edition, Part Eight. The one in which the Russian forces collapse and Putin puts his finger on the nuclear trigger.
The Man of the Year.
Whether the battle for Ukraine fills one with hope or with fear, Volodymyr Zelensky galvanized the world in a way we haven’t seen in decades.
Time magazine, on their choice to make Volodymyr Zelensky their Man of the Year.
I had no doubt he would be.
Odd to live in a year in which some in far off lands rose so bravely to the occasion, while others closer to home failed so greatly to live up to obvious standards.
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