Friday, November 6, 2026

The 2026 Election. 28th Edition. The Count (before the coup).

Counting Mayfield, Hill County Texas, ballots, 2/20/24.

November 3, 2026.  0000.

And so the fateful day has arrived.

Election Day, November 3, 2026.

And a fateful day it will be.  The election of 2026 is the most important election since that one held on November 3, 1860.  By the end of the day, if predictions hold, it will have taken a step back from fascism. The question will be how big of step back it will be, how much of a step in a new direction, and whether the step is so decisive that a major GOP/Fascist coup attempt can be averted.

I have my doubts.

What seems certain, if early predictions are correct, are that the Democrats, as disliked as they seem to be, will regain the House of Representatives.  Polling seems to suggest that there may be a "blue wave" that swamps the GOP in the House.  If that's correct, the House may have taken a major Democratic Party turn and a turn back towards real democracy.  It seems likely that the Senate may be taken by the Democrats, but it's not likely that it'll be a "wave".  But it's not impossible either.  It'll take both to really arrest a Trump coup attempt, and it will take both to really being to turn the arch of history back towards democracy.

Another question is to what degree Wyoming participates in this.  Wyoming is so ignored in the overall polls that, going into this day, we really don't know.

People who are of the betting persuasion would have placed their bets on Chuck Gray and Harriet Hageman right after the primary. But bets on Gray are much less certain now.  Gray is widely despised and rightly so.  The best thing that could happen to him, and for him, and for the state, would be to send him packing.  He needs to become a real boy and get a real job.  Lisa Kinney might be the person who symbolically does that for him, and to him, although if that's the case, she'll be a one term Congressman, elected solely to put an end in a carpetbagger's career, which would be a service to the state in and of itself.

A much better candidate, all the way around, is James Byrd.  Byrd's chances of defeating Harriet Hageman are not as good as Kinney's are of defeating Gray, but they are real.  

Otherwise, the big question is whether gadfly Rebecca Bextel of the "Constitution" Party, and Shawn Johnson of the Libertarian Party, draw enough votes to qualify both of those parties as "major" parties.

Bextel, who is engaged in a hopelessly naive campaign against Eric Barlow for the Governor's seat, comes across as a potty mouth, ignorant, Southerner, but there are right now enough potty mouth, ignorant carpetbaggers to perhaps give her 10% of the vote.  It's ironic in that the Constitution Party candidate for the House isn't a Southerner or ignorant, but the Constitution Party is smart enough to mount up a Southern Mule when they see one, if it profits them. Their beliefs are genuinely wacky, and Bextel pegs out on the wacky meter, and the Wyoming Freedom Caucus is the Woodstock of wacky, so she is likely to draw at least 10%.

My guess is that Shawn Johnson will as well.  Wyoming Libertarians aren't real Libertarians, so some disaffected Republicans can in fact feel comfortable voting for them.  Some Anybody But Chuck Republicans' who can't stomach voting for a Democrat will vote for Johnson instead.

Overall, if this election broke the back of the two party system, which is unlikely, in Wyoming, it would be a good thing. The batshit crazy wing of the GOP should be in the Constitution Party.  The flirting with anarchy wing of the GOP should be Libertarians.  Would that we had an American Solidarity Party that was viable here.  The Two Party System is moronic.


And, due to its failure, we have Donald Trump as President.

The next two years will not be easy. The best thing that could happen for the republic today is that there was such a blue wave that Trump could, and would, be impeached.  That would allow the GOP to save itself, as spineless bastards like John Barrasso realized that they had to save themselves, his primary instinct, and moved towards the middle.  Other GOP figures held captive by cowardice would as well. That would leave National Conservative chameleon J. D. Vance as President.  Vance is actually conservative, extremely so, but with some sort of a philosophy.  Trump is just about Trump.  Vance also has a survivors instinct.

But will that sort of majority happen by the end of the day?  Probably not.  

Recovery takes years for many things.  We are likely to start on that path today.  A lot of us won't be around anymore by the time we probably get there.  But a lot of us probably will.

04:10

The Tribune reports that 5,000 people have voted early in Natrona County.  Only 1,500 did in the last election.

Absentee ballots with a postmark no later than 7:00 p.m. today will be counted.  If races are close, this may make a difference.

04:37

The United States Supreme Court rejected a request to review a coup attempt on California's mail in ballots.  The coup working through the U.S. Attorney's office sought to require verification of citizenship for 20,000 California mail in ballots.

07:00

The polls in Wyoming are now open.

07:32

Wyoming Public Radio reports that absentee ballots must be received by 7:00 p.m., contrary to the item noted above.  I think this is correct.

14:19

Guam's non voting U.S. House delegate seat flipped from the GOP to the Democratic Party with Democrat Alicia Anne Garrido Limtiaco defeating incumbent James Moylan.  It appears the election for Governor flipped from Democratic to Republican, with the Republican Ada-Calvo team winning the race over the Democrat Terlaje-Perez team, although it's quite close and that result is uncertain.

While I hate to say it, neither result really matters much as Guam has no vote in Congress.  

15:01

Apparently Guam's representative can introduce bills, vote in committees, and offer amendments.

17:44

The inside news must be really bad for Republicans.  Trump is having a meltdown:


Trump cannot handle being blamed for failure, and yet he knows this is a referendum on him.  At the Oval Office he's clearly being told that this is going badly.

He's also unstable and has his hands on the nuclear trigger.  We're entering a very dangerous period.

18:00

First called race of the night, incumbent Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff retains his seat as senior Senator from Georgia.

I don't know if that's a surprise, or not, it's just the first to be called.

18:08

Incumbent Democrat Kathy Castor of Florida won the Florida 14th district which had been gerrymandered to favor Republicans.

If this trend holds, it's going to be an extremely bad night for Republicans.

November 4, 2026

Donald Trump leading the GOP into the 2026 midterms.

It was an outright slaughter of Republicans across the nation yesterday.

Donald Trump asked the nation to pretend he was on the ballot. They did. 

They completely rejected him, his cabinet, his family, his policies, and the Republican Party.

The slaughter was so vast it appears that even Trump won't attempt to challenge them.  He probably is aware doing so will result in his impeachment.

The Democrats flipped Senate seats in Maine, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, North Carolina, South Carolina, Alaska, and even Texas,  Susan Collins 30 year career in the Senate was put to an end.   Dr. Annie Andrews prevailed over the poorly chosen Senator Darline Graham, the sister of the late Senator Lindsey Graham.  Dr. Abdul El-Sayed won in Michigan.

Mississippi may be added to the toll, where as of this morning, only 50 votes separated what had been a safe Republican state.
 
In terms of Governor's races, which had been trending GOP for years, Democrats also reversed the tide. Keisha Lance Bottoms became the first black woman to be elected governor in U.S. history, taking Georgia. Gina Hinojosa ousted three term Trump lackey Gov. Greg Abbott.  Dr. Amy Acton became the first woman elected governor of Ohio.  The Democrats retook Nevada.

Locally, results were as predicted, but disappointing.

Harriet Hageman is now the incoming U.S. Senator.  Given Wyoming's history, she'll be able to retain the seat a decade after she's dead, as Wyoming reelects incumbents no matter how bad they are. So we replaced one bad Senator with an even worse one, based on her history as a Congressman.

Her challenger, Byrd, took about 35% of the vote, which was underperforming in my view.

Chuck Gray, who is widely despised, took the House, but in a closer race.  He still drew 55% of the vote, which is amazing.  Lisay Kinney underperformed at 34%.  Libertarian Johnson got the balance, 7.5%, vastly underperforming.  

All this shows how Republican Wyoming remains.  Wyomingites will blindly vote for the GOP candidate because he or she is the GOP candidate.

In terms of underperforming, Republican candidate Eric Barlow blew the doors off of carpetbagger Rebecca Bextel. Bextel did so badly that even the hopeless Democratic candidate took about the same number of votes that she did.

She should take that as a message.

Her Make Alabama Great again campaign did draw 17% o of the vote, to Casner's 15%.  Barlow took 69%.

This means the Constitution Party will qualify as a Major Party in the 2028 election.

Proposition 1 failed, a major victory for common sense and an additional rebuke to the Wyoming Freedom Caucus.

Democrats did pick up a State House seat in Laramie County.

In Natrona County people voted, apparently, for familiar names, even reelecting a 1,000 year old county commissioner and returning a 2,000 year old candidate to the Casper city council.

Turning back to the national results, Trump had the unmitigated gall to congratulate the Democrats and assumes they'll work with him. They ought to impeach him.

05:28

In really tight races, it looks like Cindy Holscher will become the Democratic Governor of Kansas and that Lauren Boebert has lost her seat in Congress.

06:31

Democrats took ever single statewide office in Georgia.

Every, single one.

To add to it, the winners were black Democrats.  This hasn't happened ever.
A political party that is morally and intellectually bankrupt deserves the rebuke of the American people.  

It is now time to make America good again.  

Republican Mayor Holt of Oklahoma City. 

Emergency Triad: MAGA Drowns Under a Blue Wave

Pop the champagne. Preserve the documents.


09:56

Mike Johnson, the worst Speaker of the House of all time, has indicated that he will not seek to be House Minority Leader in the 120th Congress.

Frankly I doubt anyone wants him as House Minority Leader. At this point, he should resign as Speaker.

10:46

Vance starts to break away.


Vance was always against Trump's war, but he needed Trump.  Now he doesn't.  He's trying to position himself for 2028.

November 5, 2026

Amy Klobuchar was elected Governor of Minnesota.



That last headline should read "Outspoken Carpetbagging Republican from California who should go back to the Golden State".


Bobo lost in Colorado to Eileen Laubacher, a retired two-star United States Navy rear admiral.

That last race is pretty symbolic of what just occurred this week.  White trash lost to education.

cont:

The reaction to Trump has been so large that suddenly conservative Democrats are back and have to be contended with.  The Blue Dog Caucus in Congress is back, now with 22 members.  In contrast the Democratic Socialist whom cause MAGA's to lose their bowels is a whopping six people.

This is really significant. Democrats are moving to the center. The Blue Dogs were always the center of reason in Congress.

November 6, 2026

The initiative to repeal Idaho's relatively strict ban on abortion failed.

For some reason, conservatives in Wyoming will not take on the initiative created statute on making your own "medical decisions" which is why Wyoming's abortion bans failed.  Idaho's result shows voters will in some cases support a strict ban.  Wyoming might as well find out if they will here.

Last edition:

The 2026 Election. 27th Edition. The Impending Clerico-Fascist Coup.


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2026 Election Post Mortem, Part 2. The Sargasso Sea for Wyoming.

On the same day that I posted the first edition of this post election thread, I posted this:

Tuesday, November 5, 1946. 1946 Midterm Election.

So, you might say?

Well, it's interesting in how history rhymes.  

In 1946 the United States overwhelmingly turned towards the GOP after years of Democratic governance.  The Depression was over, the Second World War was over, and the country was heading in a new direction politically. . . except Wyoming wasn't.

Dyed in the wool Republicans who like to scream that somebody they don't like is "a Democrat!" would be surprised to know that in 1945/46/47 Wyoming's Congressional representation was 2/3s Democratic and the Governor was a Democrat.

Oh my.

But it was.  

In the 46 election, when the nation rejected the Democrats and brought the GOP back into power, Wyomingites did nothing of the same.  They re elected all the major Democrats on the ballot.

It is, apparently, a Wyoming thing.

Chuck Gray gets his wish from the voters.

And so, in 2026, when we had two lousy candidates for Congress, one trying to move from the House to the Senate, and one trying to be a real boy, even if he has a nasty public disposition, is a liar, and a carpetbagger.

Why did we do that?

Well, they were both Republicans and one, Harriet Hageman, was a sort of kind of incumbent.  Indeed, they both were.

Hageman is an enemy of public lands who basically told Wyomingites who weren't in favor of disposing of public lands on some scale were stupid.  Wyomingites hate this.  And yet we elected her anyhow.  She's a far right wing anti public lands lawyer who claims to have had a career taking on what she now is, the Federal Government.

We know very little about Gray.  He's a Californian child who had a job in his daddy's radio station after university in Pennsylvania and then became a legislator, by appointment, as at the time local committee people liked his right wing screeds against the government.  He built on that and advanced with a carpet of lies to Secretary of STate, where he was campaigning for his next move ever since.  That's all public.

Most people don't know anything else about him.  He isn't married, and the only time he's ever been seen with women of his same approximate age is when he started showing up at US football games. Does he have friends, other than his campaign manager? There don't seem to be a lot of testimonials for him, unlike people who will say "I know Barlow", etc. There's no big family to be photographed with like Bextel. 

His campaign manager is the exception.  He claims Gray is one of his best friends, and that's probably true.  He even claims that Gray is one of the few friends he's managed to keep since entering college, and having met him, I'd believe that too.  In my experience, which is limited, he's arrogant. He's also  a Charlie Kirk fan, also unmarried (he's quite young), and is known to have frequented Francoist websites, which caused him to get canned by Harriet Hageman.  

He's no doubt angling for a political career himself, and now that he's successfully shepherded Gray around nearly universal dislike of Gray, he's well on his way to that. . . or a life of complete and utter irrlevancy.

In the primaries a major movement existed against Chuck, and while it carried on into the general, most people dutifully lined up and voted for him as the opponent was a Democrat.

Now, having said that, the opponent, Lisa Kinney, virtually signifies what's happened to the Democratic Party in Wyoming.  She was a pathetic candidate, and old.  Not a good choice.  Byrd, who ran against Hageman, was no spring chicken, but was a pretty good candidate.

So, we're packing them off to D.C., from which they'll ultimately never return, having dusted off their sandals or Lucchese's.  

Both will be entering a Democratic controlled Congress.  Hageman is already talking tough, but going into Congress she'll get committee assignments from Democrats. And she'll be a freshman Senator.  Chuck will be brand new, and also be getting assignments from Democrats.

So, both will end up being assigned to something like cleaning the men's room. That's about it.

At least they won't be harmful to the state, anyhow.

Be that as it may, voting the way it did, Wyoming no longer has any voice in D.C. whatsoever.  Hageman will be free to talk tough, like she likes to do.  Chuck will be free to sound like a pig at the Boucherie. John Barrasso will wonder around with his now patented dumb looking stare, perhaps being the Senate minority whip, although I doubt it.  The incoming GOP is going to look at Thune and Barrasso and blame them for what occurred, in part.  And they'll deserve it.

Good job Wyoming.

Well, Wyomingites like to complain about the Federal Government.  Now we'll have reason to do so. Changes will becoming in the 120th, and if not htat, in 2028.

On Gray and Hageman, one final thing, maybe, to note.

Democratic Congressman from Montana, Sam Forstag, a smoke jumper.  By Conorhogan16 - Own work, CC0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=194696290

Our neighbor to the North, Montana, is sending a Democratic smoke jumper to Congress, whereas we're sending a man who couldn't even muster up the traditional photo on a horse propaganda.  Alaska is sending a woman who was a commercial fisherman to the Senate whereas we're sending a woman who just likes to sound like an old harpie.  The darling of the far right in the election, Becky Bextel, spent he first part of her campaign bragging about the size of her presumably imaginary testicals.

Alaska Senator, Mary Peltola.

Geez louise, we've become a bunch of candy ass wimps.

Probably not in the 120th in 2027, but rather starting in 2029, Federal leasing for oil and gas will really start to be curtailed in a major way. That had started in the Biden Administration, but it's going to really take off in in 2029.  2027 and 2028 are going to be the Twilight of the Oil and Gas Industry.  It was coming sooner or later. Coal will be as done as dinner. That was inevitable as well.  Neither will go away immediately, but the carpetbaggers dream of Wyoming, where the young are all truck drivers and oil and gas workers is coming to an end, rapidly.

The shift will be monumental for Wyoming.

It'll be good for public lands in a major way.  The GOP was starting to become land rapine.  It still is.  We have two years of that to endure, but that will start to reverse in 2029.

An open question is whether Gray wills survive a Republican challenge in 2028.  He's widely detested already. Had the Democrats gotten their act together and not nominated somebody a bit flakey who came out on the Oregon Trail, he may have lost (it's a shame that Lynette Gray Bull chose not to run).  Gray will not have achieved anything but spouting lies for two years by 2028.

There's also major news, of an odd sort, from the Governor's race.

Local races in Wyoming went much better than the Congressional one did.  In the primaries the decamped armies of Nathan Bedford Forrest were sent packing in a major Wyoming Freedom Caucus defeat.  Only Bill Allemand inexplicably remains.  That actually fits into the national pattern with a return to rationality.

Eric Barlow won the Governor's office, but in doing so one of the Confederate acolytes crossed into the Constitution Party, Becky Bextel.  Loud in claims that everyone who isn't with her is a Democrat, and with plans that amount to no plan at all other than to be obstructionist, she went down in inevitable defeat, but took enough ignoramuses with her to get the Constitution Party on the ballot in 2028 as a major party

Now they're nervous:

Constitution Party Happy Bextel Made It A Major Party, But Says It's Not Freedom Caucus

Oh, contraire, mon frère.  

If the Republicans' learned anything locally this election, and their committees probably didn't, parties are made up of the people who register to vote in the polls.  Wyoming Republicans turned out not to be a bunch of Confederate saps.  The saps, mad, moved over to the Constitution Party.  Some of the saps in county organizations, outright bolted to Bextel, while not surrendering their places.  Like it or not, the Constitution Party, which was already right wing, is now the United Confederate Veterans.  

They'll take the Constitution Party down, just as they did the WFC members of the legislature.  All of that is a good thing.  It removes the Partisan Ranger stain from the GOP.

The Libertarians, like the Democrats, really underperformed this election.  If they couldn't make it to 10% in a major election in 2026, they have no hope of doing os in any election. They ought to just disband.

The 2027 Legislature, a full session, is going to be a mess. The WFC perpetually loaded up sessions with scary bills and will try to do so again, as the new legislature does not come into existence until January. By the time the legislature convenes we'll be seeing bills like "a bill to change Wyoming's name to Trumpistan", and "a bill to make school children bathe in crude oil".  Lots of stuff will fail off the bat, but there really won't be much time to take on anything substantive. 

The next two years are going to be rough for Wyoming.  The 2027 Legislature is going to have to overcome the Cornfederate bittereinder remnant that's in office until January, which means the 2027 session may be a bit of a wreck.  They have a lot to do, as the far right was wrecking things to start with.  In Congress, we're now completely decapitated, which was perhaps predictable but now that we've sent to people who like to scream and another whose perfected the blank stare, we might as well have them stay home.  Barrasso can stare at people here, and the budding crop of new charter schools with far right leanings would give Gray an audience to yell at.  Hageman can rediscover her agricultural roots.

Another view:

Rod Miller: Autopsy Report — The Wyoming Republican Party

A final note.  Just as Wyomingites can be really pleased with their legislative picks, and their picks for the top state offices, all contrary pretty much to the wishes of the Francoist controlling the GOP locally, we can also be very glad that Proposition 1 failed.  It would have wrecked the funding for local governments and have been a disaster.

Related Threads:

Last edition:

2026 Election Post Mortem, Part I. What happened and what happens next.


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