And once again, things have changed in the 2022 general election contest, at least in so far as Wyoming is concerned.
September 9, 2021
And of course, the big focus remains on the race for the U.S. House, with incumbent Congressman Liz Cheney fighting off far right challengers who have been fairly singularly focused, with one exception, on her vote to impeach Donald Trump over his connections with the January 6, 2021, insurrection.
To Trump loyalist, any act against Trump is such an offense to their world view that it's regarded as intolerable on an existential level. There's a lot going into that, but what this aspect of the contest boils down to is fairly simple. You are either loyal to Trump, in which case his actions are not to be questioned or challenged, or you are an independent thinker in some fashion, in which case you feel that you have the right to question anyone. Liz Cheney had turned out to be a conservative independent thinker. Her backers admire that. Trump loyalists regard it as treason.
Political aspirants, whatever they believe, sense an opportunity.
So, up until now, who did we have. The list follows.
Liz Cheney. She's the incumbent.
Robin Belinsky: Belinsky is a businesswoman from Sheridan who is billing herself as Wyoming's Marjorie Taylor Greene.
Anthony Bouchard: Bouchard is a member of the legislature from Goshen County who has been in a lot of local political spats and who is a far right firebrand in the legislature. Most recently, however, he's been in the news for the revelation that when he was 18, he got a 14-year-old girl pregnant, and the drama that ultimately followed that. This also revealed that he's originally from Florida, something that was pretty vague before.
Chuck Gray: Gray is a hard right member of the legislature whose first appearance in the Wyoming political scene was an unsuccessful run at the seat he now occupies in the House. He was appointed to that seat upon his predecessor's death and is a Natrona County radio personality. Recent revelations have demonstrated that most of his campaign money is either his, or from his father.
Bryan Eugene Keller: He's a resident of Laramie County who has registered, but I don't know anything else about him.
Denton Knapp: Knapp is a retired U.S. Army Colonel and a current Brig. Gen. in the California National Guard. He's from Gillette originally and claims to be generally fond of the Cheney and to respect her past role in Congress.
Bryan Miller: Miller is the retired USAF lieutenant colonel who has twice run for Senate and lost. Now he's trying the House against a candidate who is presumed to be embattled.
Marissa Selvig: Mayor of Pavilion. Selvig announced early and has a website, but has received very little attention thereafter.
Darin Smith: Smith is a businessman and lawyer in Cheyenne, according to the information he's put out. He was the campaign manager for the failed Foster Freiss Gubernatorial run and his views reflect that.
And now we have Harriet Hageman.
Hageman is a far right Republican candidate, and a lawyer, from Wyoming's wheat belt. She ran against Gordon in the GOP primary he won, splitting the far right vote with Foster Freiss. She took the wheat belt rural counties, but didn't go as well elsewhere. Her father was a well known highly conservative farmer member of the legislature many years ago. In short, she'll be popular in the wheat belt, but outside of it more center of the road Republicans will likely be pretty distrustful of her.
What does she have that the other GOP candidates don't?
Donald Trump.
And name recognition, I suppose. She had far right cred, without being quite as far right as Bouchard. She isn't soiled by an icky scandal like Bouchard, and she's not from Natrona County, like Gray.
Hageman came out of the chute, following the endorsement, full on with Trump, placing herself squarely in the camp that holds Trump is not to be questioned. Seeking to distance herself from the canddiate whom she's running against, but once backed she also stated about that former support: “But then she betrayed Wyoming, she betrayed this country, and she betrayed me.”
Betrayal of the country, let alone Wyoming, is a pretty bold claim. Quite a few people quietly hold that the January 6 insurrection was a betrayal and support Cheney's vote to impeach. Cheney, who hasn't backed down at all reacted with "Bring It" to Hageman's announcement and Trump's endorsement.
My guess is the contest narrows from here, and frankly it has become a lot more dangerous for Cheney. Hageman will appeal to a lot of the base that originally got Cheney elected, and Hageman was once a Cheney backer. She's well-connected and not a gadfly. And she has, thanks to her prior run, good name recognition.
It's a long ways until the primary, but my guess is that at this point, were going to see people dropping out or disappearing. The only viable campaigns right now are hers, Cheney's, Gray's, Bouchard's and Smith's. Everyone else is just noise in the background at this point. Smith won't last. Bouchard will run until the end. Gray? My guess is he won't.
Bouchard, for his part, has already reacted, stating; "Harriet has never been elected. She doesn’t have a voting record, and now the voters should trust a party operative that is a long time close friend of Cheney? Trump has once again surrounded himself with the wrong advisors, and he’s endorsed the same candidate that Liz Cheney would endorse to replace her in her congressional seat."
Assuming that Cheney would have endorsed Hageman is assuming an awful lot. But this does signal that Bouchard won't back down in the race. Gray and Smith haven't commented so far and are probably trying to figure out how to react. Ironically, given the pounding he took following the news breaking about his early scandal, Hageman's announcement might somewhat restore Bouchard's pull in the poles as his outcast status does set him apart from Hageman, whereas it will be much more difficult for Smith and Gray to do the same.
On everyone's chances at the polls, I was confident that Cheney would win this race handily and that in the end none of the prior contenders would really touch her. I'm not that confident about it now. I still think she'll win, but Hageman has more than a chance.
Other races? Here's the Governor's Race.
Mark Gordon: Gordon is the incumbent.
Interestingly, Hageman's announcement for Congress puts Gordon in a little better position than he was in, although he was in a good position. There's been some lingering discontent on the far right about Gordon's election, but with Friess now departed, and Hageman diverted, there's no real threat from the far right.
Harold Bjork. Who Bjork isn't really clear, but he's started a Facebook and internet campaign for Governor. From what little y ou can tell about him, he's a self-declared "conservative" who is running pretty far to the right of Gordon and who is strongly opposed to the now expired mask mandate.
Rex Rammell: Rammell is a perennial and unelectable candidate who ran last time and will again. His views can be characterized as being on the fringe right/libertarian side.
Cont:
And now Bryan Miller has dropped out from the Congressional GOP contest.
September 10, 2021
And yesterday, Darin Smith also dropped out of the race.
Interestingly, pressure really mounted, almost instantly, for the other non Cheney candidates to drop out. Denton Knapp, whose campaign has generated little interest so far, indicated that he wouldn't be right away, but his statement was less than a battle cry. An advisor to Knapp, however, released a text from a Trump advisor to the Trib which stated "People who don’t clear the field will pay a heavy price" showing that the Trump organization is paying more than a little attention in its effort to unseat Cheney.
That comment was interesting and frankly more than a little disconcerting. The individual who made the statement declined to comment on it what it meant. It brought a negative reaction from the Knapp advisor, who commented, according to the Trib, "Who are they to say ‘You’re gonna pay a heavy price’? Who are these people? They aren’t in Wyoming."
As noted, Bouchard stated he's remaining in the race. Belinsky has stated that she is too, although there's been little attention gained by her campaign so far.
Cheney remained fully defiant, stating:
I look forward to an extended public debate about the importance of the rule of law and the solemn duty of elected officials to uphold their oath to the Constitution, It is tragic that some in this race have sacrificed those principles, and their duty to the people of Wyoming, out of fear and in favor of loyalty to a former president who deliberately misled the American people about the 2020 election, provoked an attack on the U.S. Capitol, and failed to perform his duties as president as the violence ensued.
There's some chortling already that a Hageman victory is inevitable, but while it seems likely she will become the primary opponent to Cheney, her positions in the Governor race put her in the known far right category that's likely to cause average GOP voters outside the wheat belt to face her with real hesitance. I'd still regard Cheney as the favorite.
It might be noted that this stands to be a political career ending race for every GOP candidate, no matter what happens, other than Cheney. Right now, Cheney remains likely to win, although her race is now much tighter than it was, but no matter what happens, she's positioned for a 2024 race for the Oval Office. This race, however, likely will terminate the future political aspirations for Gray and Bouchard, and if Hageman loses, Hageman as well.
September 11, 2021
The two principal candidates for the House, Cheney and Hageman, traded jabs immediately following Hageman's announcement, with Cheney accusing Hageman of "tragic opportunism".
Anthony Bouchard, whose campaign lost signficant steam following the breaking of the news of his early Flordia years, was back in the news for posting a meme on his campaign site urging that Dr. Fauci be tried, convicted and executed. Bouchard is accusing him of lies, and has been an opponent of the COVID 19 vaccine.
September 15, 2011
And now far right candidate, State House member Chuck Gray, has dropped out.
Gray announced after Bouchard and was competing for the demographic His campaign interestingly never really took off, with his primary funders being himself and an organization funded by his father. That would suggest that his support was much thinner than he supposed it would be, and of course its notable that he originally was defeated for the seat he now holds, acquiring it by appointment, the first time, upon its prior occupants death.
Gray would have been highly unlikley to unseat Cheney, but he did stand to take votes away from Bouchard. With Hageman in the race he had no chance of success and his staying in the race would have meant that he would have give up his House seat, potentially effectively ending his elective office career.
With Gray's depature, the race is now a three way race, with Hageman contesting Cheney only on the extreme right, and Hageman and Cheney otherwise contesting for the rest of the GOP vote.
September 22, 2022
The thing about modern times is that it's easy for people to catch up with what you said and did.
Earlier in the 2022 Wyoming Congressional race Anthony Bouchard found that out when he raced to get ahead of an English newspaper that was set to break the news about a teenage trist with an underaged teenage girl, and the result of the same.
Now it's Harriet Hageman's turn.
Now, Hageman has no scandals to discredit her. She's lived an honorable life as a lawyer for over thirty years. But she's also from a right wing political famly, some of her legal work has really reflected that, and her prior stances have as well.
And the New York Times caught up with that record.
In 2016, Hageman opposed Trump's bid for the Republican nomination. She's excused that in part by saying that she was supporting Ted Cruz at the time, which has its own defects. But she also stated, apparently, that Trump was "racist and xenophobic."
Now she has the endorsement of a former President that she accused of being a racist xenophobe.
Trump probably didn't know that when he endorsed Hageman and my guess is that he doesn't know Hageman at all. Hageman has long standing Republican establishment connections in Wyoming and she's really an establishment candidate from the far right who is taking the Trump line.
Cheney has accused her of "tragic opportunism" and now you do have to at least wonder about that. In 2016 she held that Trump was a bad guy, in essence. Now she doesn't. What changed?
Well, other than the political atmosphere, not much. A person could claim, of course, that Trump's records changed your mind. Some have done that. Hageman, however, blamed Democrats and Cheney supporters.
The fact is, I heard and believed the lies the Democrats and Liz Cheney’s friends in the media were telling at the time, but that is ancient history as I quickly realized their allegations against President Trump were untrue. They lied about him before he was elected and continue to lie about him to this day.
So she stated.
This may have been a spur of the moment sort of reply, but in 2016 Cheney was running for her first term, and against, in the primary, two solid Wyoming candidates. One was from Natrona County and one from Teton County. Both had been in the legislature. Their positions were nearly indentical which is probably why they wiped out each other and Cheney in turn survived. Be that as it may, it's difficult to see how somebody as well connected politically could have been really fooled by "friends" of Cheney. I know that her backers came to my front door and were uncomfortalbe with my questions for them. Maybe I'm just less easily fooled as I have a contrarian streak and I'm not in the political mainstream. And a person would have to ask why the fooling set in so hard that it's only now, after Trump's defeat and the surrounding controversy, that a person would realize it.
And for the Democrats, well they couldn't have been Wyoming Democrats as there's only about five of them in the first place. That's probably not what she meant, however.
The truth of the matter is that in 2016 most establishment Republicans, and Hageman is an establishment Republican, were horrified by the Trump canidacy. What the amazing thing is, is the degree to which they later accomodated themselves to it. That started to come unraveled in 2020, following the election, but it hasn't fully. And it hasn't fully as the Trump base became the party base. Candidates running now have to deal with that, and most deal with it either by not addressing it at all, or appealing to the base.
Indeed, that's the issue in the Wyoming race. Nobody can claim that Cheney hasn't been a solid right wing Wyoming Congressman. What she isn't, is in lock step with Trump, particularly in regard to the January 6 insurrection.
Hageman, it might be noted, is on record in a recent CNN interview saying their were "questions about the election" and she wouldn't acknowledge Joe Biden as the President.
In other somewhat related news, the recent audit of Arizona's race shows that Biden won there by a bigger margin that had been previously reported. One now dropped out candidate, Chuch Gray, had been making auditing a bit of an issue in his race even though there were no indications whatsoever of a problem with the election in Wyoming.
September 30, 2021
Liz Cheney, whose departure from the Trump camp seems to have freed her from any self imposed need to take the GOP line at any one time, went on record praising Gen. Milley for his fidelity to the U.S. Constitution during the hearings this past week on Afghanistan.
Milley's telephone call with his Chinese counterpart has caused some Republican figures to argue he should resign or be removed. Included in these figures is Matt Gaetz, who speant his five minutes of alloted time engaging in an accusative set of questions. Other GOP figures, but certainly not all, also stated that Milley should resign. At least one such example I saw on C-Span was an embarrassingly awkward one by a Congresswoman or Senator I was not otherwise familiar with and whose name I failed to make note to remember.
October 12, 2021
Liz Cheney just cmpleted a record setting fund raising quarter.
Cheney is on the House commission investigating the January 6, insurrection. A bipartisan comittee that has been investigating the Justice Department just released some findings showing that Trump sought to appoint a new Attorney General insider specifically as he was expected to be loyal in overturning the election, but did not when a mass resignation from the department was to occur. The information makes Trump's involvement in an effort to overtrun the election at all costs manifest. The House committee is now pondering criminal referrals. It'll be interesting to see how this all plays out by the next election.
October 14, 2021
Harriet Hageman has raised $300,000 in her first quarter of fund raising. This included funds from Timothy Mellon, a highy wealthy Wyoming resident who earlier was reproted to have donated the maximum amount allowable, $2,900, to Anthony Bouchard.
October 23, 2021
The Tribune is reporting that only 6% of Cheney's campaign funds have been raised from inside of Wyoming.
While she's pulled in a vast amount of donations, and all money spends the same, that fact can't be taken as a positive sign for her campaign.
October 27, 2021
Rex Rammell, perennial candidate, has officially announced to run against Mark Gordon for Governor. Rammell's campaign is doomed, like his prior ones, but he's running again.
Liz Cheney has now raised $5,100,000 for her reelection campaign, and unprecedented amount. In response, Harriet Harriman has termed her a "Goliath."
Given as signficant amounts of money have come from outside of the state, there's some reason to be concerned that at some point the substantial amounts may actually harm the Cheney campaign.
Novmber 9, 2021
Harriet Hageman is part of a right wing legal entity bringing lawsuits from that prospective and, in that capacity, will be one of several counsel who are bringing a class action on behalf of Federal employees who do not wish to be subject to the Federal vaccination mandate for COVID 19. The suit terms this as being brought on behalf of those who have "natural immunity', which of course we know does not exist as immunity from having had the disease is temporary.
November 10, 2021
Trump has endorsed Idaho Lt. Governor Janice McGeachin against incumbant Republican Governor Brad Little in another example of how loyalty to Trump, in Trump's view, is more signficant than other aspects of being a Republican.
It's not as dramatic as the Cheney rift with Trump that lead to his endorsement of Harriet Hageman, but it is intersting, particularly in light of the recent 2021 off year election in wihch the Governor Elect of Virginia accepted Trump's nomination but otherwise distanced himself from Trump. These 2022 pirmaries may demonstrate the extent to which Trump's influence has any staying power.
November 16, 2021
The GOP Central Committee in the state narrowly voted to no longer "recognize" Liz Cheney as a Republican. The vote passed 29 to 31.
It has no impact. A person becomes a Republican by registering as a Republican at their county seat.
November 17, 2021
The Republican Central Committee, which determined yesterday that Republican Liz Cheney is not a Republican, voted to chastise Legislators Harshman and Hicks, but not Park County Precint Committeeman Bray.
Bray, as readers will recall, wrote an email to Republican Legislator Tara Nethercott which included the following:
If I were as despicable a person as you, I would kill myself to rid the world of myself. You sicken me. Thank you for ensuring that the people of Wyoming are subjected to tyranny once again. FUCK YOU CUNT.
Earlier, Park County declined to do anything regarding Bray.
Hicks got "chastised" due to Bray. He received an email from a constituent of that last name, from an email list, and thought it was the offensive Bray, when it was not. He replied:
Please remove me from your email list. Given your pass (sic) history of obscenity laced unwanted attacks on members of the legislature there is absolutely nothing of any value that you have to say that I am interested in hearing, I do not represent you and I sure as hell do not have any respect for your past despicable behavior.
This was shared by Anthony Bouchard.
Harshman got in trouble in an open session of the legislature when he reacted to a motion by Chuck Gray to take a headcount on an amendment to a bill, which the legislature never does. Apparently he said something like: "Chuck Gray, fucking asshole,” and then "Little fucker." This is somewhat unclear in print, as the Tribune edits out the nastys, which we obviously are not.
Putting this together, the common thread would appear to be. . .well there isn't one. If we took out the Hicks example it would be that calling somebody diminutive is beyond the pale, which of course would be, from the prospective of a shorter person myself, fully justified. But, if we consider Hicks again, that can't be it.
A cynic might say that what is really being "chastised" is criticizing a populist. I can't really see what Hicks did otherwise, other than to engage in a case of mistaken identity, which seems like a thing chastising somebody for would be a bit much. But the committee noted that the Park County figure, who hasn't been chastised by the Park County committee, had been visited by a "cowboy gentleman" and that took care of things. As the gentleman was actually a figure of the Park County committee, who only notes that he asked for an apology and not a latter-day Tom Horn, that seems a pretty low bar. Bray hasn't apologized, although apparently Park County expects him too. . . which is taking quite awhile. Harshman did apologize to Gray.
The resolution passed by the Central Committee asks for Harshman to be removed or resign. It's clear the Natrona County committee isn't going to ask him to resign and isn't going to remove him, which brings us back to Hicks. He commented, according to the Tribune:
Clearly, there’s a different moral imperative applied to the different cases,I do believe that the people in the state of Wyoming will figure that one out for themselves. It also diminishes the importance and the belief of the party itself when there’s gross inconsistencies.
This referred to the emails from and about Bray, but Hicks may as well have been commenting on the entire flap itself. While it will undoubtedly be noted that the Committee was disciplining its legislators, and a precinct committeeman is much less than that, it does essentially send a message that picking on a populist is not to be allowed.
Which gets back to this. Things coming out of the committee meeting have been a right wing populist tour de force. Cheney is claimed to be a non Republican, when she clearly is one, Hicks is disciplined for reacting to an email which in its contents is laudable, but which was sent to the wrong person and then sent to the entire legislature by extreme right-wing populist Anthony Bouchard, who is a candidate for the House but whose chances were never great, but now are dead, but who still remains close to the hearts of some populists. Harshman's conduct was genuinely appalling but it doesn't help that he criticized Gray, who likewise failed in his run against Cheney but who is also close to the hearts of some populists. Meanwhile Bray used misogynistic profanities against Naracott and nothing happened.
Of course, at the end of the day, all this means next to nothing. The committee is a committee of committees and reflects the states' Republican committees, but it's really questionable to what extent that they represent actual Republicans. The same political demographic in the state has been worrying that the party is packed with closet Democrats, which bring up this point.
A resolution chastising a member and even asking for their resignation has just as much actual impact as declaring him to be a Lemon Meringue Pie. I.e, none. That's the same impact declaring Cheney to be a non Republican has. A person can go into the county clerk's office wearing their Che Guevara t-shit, a black beret with the hammer and sickle on it, while singing The Internationale and register as a Republican and then they are.
At the end of the day, the final votes are what matters. Lots of people are openly declaring views that match the committees, but in back rooms and in private conversations, more than a few are saying the opposite.
A Brief Comment About The Language
This will be the last entry on this installment, so I'll do this as regular text rather than a footnote.
I've quoted here, I'll note, what these figures actually said. The Tribune and other media outlets editedt hat out. They should have.
This blog runs between 200 to 500 hits on an average day. Probably a lot of those don't read every entry. We have a limited audience, in other words. So I don't really have to worry about children reading the text and starting to use "potty language".
But it's clear some of our public figures do.
Some of this is locker room talk, which has always been foul, particularly in largely male societies, which coaching, Harshman's actual profession, is. That doesn't excuse it, but that's the case. But beyond that, American speech has become incredibly foul. The question may be why.
Part of the reason for that is that the oral skills of Americans have really declined. Most Americans, I suspect, couldn't grasp an insult levied by Winston Churchill now days as they're too advanced to decipher. And that's not good. It leaves us with stuff like this, and when stuff like this gets circulated, it becomes common and soon is part of the average vernacular.
Having said that, what Harshman said was simply locker room talk. He shouldn't have done it, but is apology should have been enough.
Bray's comments, however, used a term that demonstrates absolute contempt for women and were violent. They were not only beyond the pale, they were truly hateful and in an ancient, disturbing, way. They were reducing, demeaning, and aggressively violent.
And yet nothing was done about that.
November 21, 2021
Well, I don't have the next entry ready yet, so we sill will have at least this post here.
Todays' Trib has an op-ed from a member of a well known local Republican family which is a blistering rebuke of the state of the state's GOP. The article warns of Republican extinction if its current direction continues and strongly attacks the current denialism and actions of the state's party. It also claims that the recent action regarded Cheney was pushed over the top by members of Hageman's family, although it doesn't detail that.
December 4, 2021
The next edition of this isn't quite ready, and as it starts off with a specific theme, this wouldn't be a good introductory post for it anyhow.
Donald Trump, who seems to despise Elizabeth Cheney for her having the courage of her convictions, has been apparently invited or decided to come to Wyoming and appear here on May 28, 2022, at a rally in support of Harriet Hageman.
Former legislator Tom Lubnau, who is supporting the now almost silent campaign of Denton Knapp objected to the spending of GOP funds on this as it is illegal for the party to spend money, apparently, in support of one primary candidate against another. Others present at the meeting that resulted in this have stated that Hageman's name was never mentioned, but this is pretty obviously going to be a Trump bashes Cheney event and restraining Trump from mentioning Hageman, whom he has endorsed, will be impossible. My predictions is that this will end up in legal action before it's over.
While it's obviously trying to look down the lane quite away, I also suspect that by May the former President's legal troubles may be mounting significantly.
We'll see, of course, if any of these predictions prove correct.
Prior Threads:
