The 2022 Election Part IX. And they're officially out of the gate.

The Candidates, that is.

Registration to run closed yesterday, May 27, at 5:00.  So who is running?

Let's take a look

• House of Representatives

The race that everyone has their eyes on, of course, because of Liz Cheney's principled stand on the insurrection.  That angered those who feel that she should have been more loyal to Donald Trump than the Constitution, and created an opportunistic effort by her fellow Republicans to replace her, aided by a national party that has remained freakishly in the former President's grip. . . so far.

Republicans for the House:

This race will likely decide who will occupy this seat, with it going pretty obviously to either Cheney or Hageman.

Liz Cheney.  The embattled incumbent.

Harrient Hageman.  Hageman, former Cheney supporter and Trump opponent who has switched on both in what Cheney has proclaimed as "tragic opportunism".   By and large Hageman's and Cheney's politics, to the extent that we can tell what Hageman's are, are identical, but for loyalty to Trump.

Robyn Belinsky:  Belinsky is a businesswoman from Sheridan who is billing herself as Wyoming's Marjorie Taylor Greene.  Why she's still running at this point is really a mystery as she has no chance whatsoever and what few hard right populist diehards who won't adopt Hageman are left will vote for Bouchard.

Anthony Bouchard:  Bouchard is a member of the legislature from Goshen County who has been in a lot of local political spats and who is a far right firebrand in the legislature and who is still running in spite of having no hope of getting past the primary.  He will still draw some votes, however, from those who are very much in this camp and have been his acolytes all along.

Bryan Eugene Keller:  He's a resident of Laramie County who has registered, but I don't know anything else about him.

Denton Knapp:  Knapp is a retired U.S. Army Colonel and a current Brig. Gen. in the California National Guard who is still, surprisingly, running.  His campaign at this point borders on being delusional.  He must be hoping that Hageman and Cheney will destroy each other, and then the electorate in the GOP will go for a moderate.  In other words, this campaign is delusional.

I can't predict this race anymore.  At one time I thought for certain that it would go to Cheney, but to my surprise the Trump loyalty thing matters to a lot more people than I would have guessed for reasons that tend to escape me, save for a fair number of people have really bought into hard corp populist thought. The ironic thing is that Cheney's top opponent isn't a populist, something that must be driving Bouchard nuts.

Democrats for the House:

At long last, perhaps waiting for the Republicans to destroy each other before registering, some Democratic contenders have appeared. They are:

Lynette GreyBull: GreyBull was the Democratic contender last time and, in spite of her defeat, did better against Cheney that probably would have been expected.  If Hageman is the contender, she'll do even better yet.

GreyBull, depending on who the Republicans choose in their primary, and how much they destroy themselves in the process, may actually have a chance.

Meghan R. Jensen:  Jensen is a young candidate from Rock Springs.  So far that's about all that I can say about her.

Steve Helling:  Helling is a long time lawyer in Casper and who also practiced in Colorado.  He's well known as a lawyer.

My prediction in this race is that GreyBull will win the Democratic primary again, to face off against whomever the Republicans chose.

Independent

Casey Hardison. This is a gadfly campaign as it is based on drug legalization.  Indeed, he has a case on appeal to the Wyoming Supreme Court right now for felony marijuana delivery.

It seems like we get these campaigns every election now.

• Governor's Race.

This seat is now safe for Gordon, although former President D. Trump took a verbal swing at him the other day when being interviewed by KTWO radio.

Republicans for the Governor's Office.

Mark Gordon:  Gordon is the incumbent.  He's going to get the nomination, and he's going to win the General Election.

Harold Bjork.  Who Bjork isn't really clear, but he's started a Facebook and internet campaign for Governor.

Brent Bien:  

Rex Rammell:  Rammell is a perennial and unelectable candidate who ran last time and will again.  His views can be characterized as being on the fringe right/libertarian side.

Democrats for the Governor's Office.

Rex Wilde: Wilde previously ran for the Senate as a Democrat and has no chance.

Theresa Livingston:  Livingston previously ran for the State Senate and stands no chance.

• Secretary of State

This race took an unexpected late turn when the current Secretary of State Buchanan, who had announced he was running, pulled out after putting in, for a second time, for an open seat on the bench.  Since his withdrawal, a host of Republicans have now filed for the office.  

Republicans for Secretary of State.

As noted, Buchanan's withdrawal has opened up the contest for Secretary of State.

Dan Dockstader.  He's a longstanding member of the Legislature who stands a good chance due to that service.

Tara Nethercott:  Also a member of the Legislature.  Nethercott has not been in the legislature long, but she was the subject of misogynistic attacks last session, which she weathered well. She also stands a good chance.

Chuck Gray:  Also a member of the legislature who has been frequently in the news due to his far right populist positions.  Gray clearly has his sights set on higher office and probably views this as a stepping stone.  His earlier attempt to replace Cheney drew little support.

Mark Armstrong:  Former candidate for the U.S. Senate.  His run for Senate drew very little support and his run for Secretary of State will fail.

Democrats for Secretary of State

Pathetically, none.

State Auditor

Kriti Racines. She's the incumbent and the only one running.  She's effectively won the race at this point, absent something bizarre occuring.

• Superintendent of Public Instruction

Republicans for Superintendent of Public Instruction.

This race is also newsworthy as the incumbent, Brian Schroeder, is generally regarded as the least bad of the three names that were submitted to Governor Gordon when the prior occupant stood down.

Brian Schroeder. Schroeder is the presumptive nominee.

Megan Degenfelder.  She has an education background but who has been working in the petroleum industry, announced for Superintendent of Public Education.

She was once employed as the department's Chief Policy Officer.

Thomas Kelly:  Kelly was one of the three finalists who was not chosen for this office by Governor Gordon.

Jennifer Zerba:  Zerba announced late. She's from Casper and is an education professional, which is all I know about her.

Robert J. White.  White is from Rock Springs, which is all I know about him.

Democrats for Superintendent of Public Instruction.

Sergio Maldonado:  Maldonado is a longtime figure in Fremont County politics and is, I believe, also an enrolled member of one of the Wind River tribes.

• Other interesting races

We'd often stop our tracking of races here, but there are some interesting races going on around the state, simply because these are interesting times politically.  

Nearly ever race in the state is overshadowed, by some degree, by the split in the GOP between arch populists, who have largely bought into the Trump "election stolen" myth, and traditionalist, who have not.  Ironically, the one candidate out there who is an establishment candidate for whom this figures the most is Harriet Hageman, who was a right wing establishment figure whose migrated to the Trump camp to take on a person she formally supported, that being Liz Cheney.  In that migration she reflects what could be regarded as the cynical choice some other well established national figures, like Ted Cruz, have made, or indeed even local ones, like Cynthia Lummis.  And as already noted, Lummis apparently figures in Trump's endorsement of Hageman, which might reflect ongoing animosity between Lummis and Cheney over Cheney's late decision in 2020 to run again for  the House as it appeared for a while that she would run for the Senate.

Anyhow, around the state, we see the following interesting races.

• House District 57

Abandoned now by Chuck Gray, now features two Republicans running for the office and one Democrat. The Republicans are:

Republicans

Jeanette Ward:  Ward has lived in Wyoming for less than a year and was apparently recruited to his race by Gray. Gray is not a Wyoming native either, but Ward is most recently from Chicago, where she was a controversial school board member.  It would appear that she was recruited by Gray due to holding similar views to Gray.

Thomas Myler:  Myler is the marketing coordinator for Casper College and is on the School Board of Natrona County School District No. 1.

Democrats

Robert Johnson.

• Natrona County Assessor

This race has been of much local interest as property matters have made the sitting assessor controversial.

Matt Keating:  Incumbent

Tammy Saulsbury:  Saulsbury formerly worked in the Assessor's office and ran against Keating last time. She's back to try again.

Tim Haid:  Haid is a new entry that I don't know anything about.

May 30, 2022

This past Saturday, Donald Trump appeared at a rally in Casper in support of Harriet Hageman.  He delivered a predictable speech there, according to press reports.

Perhaps the most notable thing about the rally was that it was opened by Frank Eathorne, head of the Wyoming GOP, which means that the party's head is openly taking a position in favor of one primary candidate against all the others. This is clearly improper.

Hageman spoke and according to press retirements gave a speech about Wyomingites being "fed up" with various things.  Paradoxically, one of those things was high gas prices, which Wyoming's energy sector depends on.  Consumers are tired of that, but oddly people in the state seem to feel that they should have a vibrant oil and gas economy and low prices simultaneously, which is impossible.  

High fertilizer prices for farmers was another thing that Wyomingites were reportedly fed up with, according to Hageman, but most Wyomingites know nothing about that whatsoever.  That would in part be due to a lack of regulation in agricultural land ownership contrary to some states like Iowa, which would require a distributist economic platform in this area that neither the Republicans or the Democrats are likely to endorse.

Hageman had a gaff in her speech which might symbolize the Freudian slip:

I am that person who will represent you, your fallacies

What this is really about, in some ways, was ironically summarized by Trump, when he said:

The entire Republican Party is united behind Harriet, she is endorsed by practically everyone, and most importantly, perhaps, she’s endorsed by me.

Trump's endorsement more important than the party's?

No doubt, to many, that's true. 

Of interest, contrary to expectations and fears, the event was hardly noticed in Casper outside of the Ford Center itself.

June 3, 2022

The Cheney campaign released its first television commercial.

June 4, 2022

The news has now broken that Bob Ide, who is running for a seat in the state Senate now occupied by State Senator Drew Perkins, was at the Capitol with Frank Eathorne on January 6. That doesn't mean that he was in eyesight of the riot like Eathorne was, but that topic is now being debated with a group maintaining that he was.

Ide takes the position that Wyoming should claim Federal lands within Wyoming, something the state disclaimed permanently at the time of statehood, and is otherwise in the far right.

Dr. Oz won his primary in Pennsylvania, which presumably means that the Democrat has an excellent chance of prevailing.

June 7, 2022

In a real contrast to a lot of what we've seen on the political scene this year, Liz Cheney received the endorsement of Northern Arapaho Business Council member Lee Spoonhunter and Lynette Grey Bull, a resident of the Reservation who is running for the Democratic nomination for a second time, was extremely gracious about it, praising Mr. Spoonhunter in the process.

June 13, 2022

So, as a result of the January 6 Commission, we now know that Hageman campaign advisor Bill Stephien did not support the "election stolen" myth when he was Trump's last advisor, and pretty clearly didn't think the election was stolen.  Indeed, his testimony was damning in regard to Trump.

Which raises two questions.

How does he reconcile his current work for Hageman with his conscience, in that light, and secondly, how does Hageman feel about having an advisor who was on "Team Normal", as he put it, as he wouldn't endorse the fantasy?

Hageman has stated that she thinks there's "honest questions" about what happened in the November 2020 election.  Stephien pretty clearly doesn't.  His testimony stated today that; “I didn’t believe that what was happening was honest or professional”.

Stephien was to have testified live, but his wife went into labor.  From a Wyoming prospective, you have to wonder what have occurred if he did.  Hageman has "honest questions", Stephien felt the whole stolen election scene wasn't "honest".

Frankly, I very much doubt that Hageman has any doubts whatsoever about who won the 2020 election, but took that position as it's the only thing that really distinguishes her from Cheney, politically.  The distinction is growing huge, however, ethically, given how clear it is that the stolen election story is a dog that doesn't hunt, and her own campaign manager doesn't believe it.

June 15, 2022

The Club For Growth has endorsed Harriet Hageman.  The PAC could be regarded as an economic libertarian oriented organization, particularly focused on reducing taxes.  The organization has apparently been unhappy with Cheney since well prior to the current election, but it's tapping into Trumpism in advertisements it intends to run in Wyoming.

June 16, 2022

While it took a few days, problems for Hageman have now developed in that her campaign manager, Bill Stephien, clearly never thought the Trump election was stolen and she's on record claiming she doesn't know who won the election.

In the Tribune today, a spokesman for Stephien made it clear that he stands by his views.  A Hageman spokesman came out and claimed that she stands by her "doesn't know" position.  Some in her camp are accusing Cheney of calling Stephien as a witness purposely to embarrass Hageman, the irony of that being that it concedes that she should be embarrassed.

June 18, 2022

The Natrona County GOP is apparently sick of things, based upon recent comments coming out of its higher levels.  Sidelined by the State committee, along with Laramie County, the second most populous county in the state is beginning to fight back.  It'll be interesting to see if Laramie County, the most populous state, joins them.

It's no secret to observers that Laramie County and Natrona County are far less Trump Territory than the rest of the state. Cheney signs are up everywhere in Natrona County, even though the county's Ford Center recently hosted the Trump loyalist.

News broke yesterday that the county GOP may seek to remove the state head, Frank Eathorne.

The draft, and it's only a draft, of a resolution they may consider next week reads as follows.

A resolution of the Natrona County Republican Party State Central Committee calling for the immediate resignation of Frank Eathorne as Chairman of the Wyoming Republican Party. 

Whereas it is the  stated goal of the Wyoming Republican Party to represent the values and vision of Republicans all over the State and to support Republican candidates to win and retain political office in Wyoming,

Whereas the current Chairman, Frank Eathorne has consistently failed to represent the values of the vast majority of Wyomingites and during his tenure has divided the Party and failed in his duty to support all elected Republicans,

Whereas it has come to light that Frank Eathorne consistently violated the sacred vow of marriage, engaging in indiscretions while on the job and in his personal life,

Whereas Frank Eathorne, while intoxicated allegedly threatened a woman while her 2-year old daughter was in the adjoining room - later dismissing his behavior as “gentleman-like”.  Eathorne then allowed the City of Worland to pay for the legal settlement even though he espouses personal responsibility and condemns government support of any kind,

Whereas Frank Eathorne later accepted over $100,000.00 in Government subsidies for his ranching operation and untold Federal mineral royalties and trespass fees while denouncing anyone else that may need support from the government,

Whereas Frank Eathorne has openly advocated for Wyoming to secede from the Union,

Whereas Frank Eathorne is a member of the “Oath Keepers” – an openly extremist group calling for a revolutionary war in the United States and partially responsible for the January 6^th riot,

Whereas Frank Eathorne, during his tenure, has overseen the divide of the Party, the elimination of Natrona County delegates and the last minute unseating of Laramie County delegates while turning a blind eye to the transgressions of other Counties.

Whereas Frank Eathorne has repeatedly lied to the people of Wyoming as well as members of this Central Committee.   When asked about his involvement in the January 6^th, 2021 insurrection, he repeatedly said that he went to the rally, walked down the street and retired to his hotel before any violence or destruction of property started.   Not only was he a member of the “mob”, he has done nothing to condemn the insurrection – an attempt to overthrow the election.

For these reasons, we, the members of the Natrona County Republican Party call for the immediate resignation of Frank Eathorne as Chairman of the Wyoming Republican Party and his replacement by the normal action of the bylaws of the State Central Committee.

The draft is as blistering critique of Eathorne, who has presided over a massive lurch to the far right of the Republican Party in Wyoming and whose has overseen the party's silencing of its largest county organizations and who has made the local party completely complicit in the effort to toss out incumbent Liz Cheney.

The fact that it was leaked suggests that some in the upper elements of the county party are trying to sideline it before it gets to a vote, probably by mustering howls of far right opposition to it.  There are some far right politicians in the GOP in the county itself, so this rise of the traditional party is not without opposition, no doubt.

Should the resolution pass, it will be a brave thing for the county committee to do.  Still, it's time that some in the GOP show that they're not in the stolen election myth camp and aren't participating in the destruction of democratic principals inside of the party itself.

On the current race, it's interesting to note that a lot of the hard right "stolen election" rhetoric has suddenly gone silent.  The January 6 committee hearings seem to be having an impact, most notably in the Hageman camp whose race is based solely on loyalty to Trump and therefore ipso facto to the concept that he didn't do anything wrong on January 6.  It's now clear that he acted either at least immorally on January 6, and perhaps seditiously.  Indeed, most likely seditiously.  And Hageman's own campaign advisor isn't having the story that the election was stolen, in contrast to Hageman, who claims not to know who won the election.

If the election wasn't stolen, and it wasn't, and if Trump acted seditiously, which it appears he did, Hageman actually has nothing to run on.  Her views don't vary from Cheney's at all on anything else.

Indeed, it'll be interesting to see if this makes long shot Democratic candidate Lynette Grey Bull viable, assuming she secures the Democratic nomination, which seems likely.  Grey Bull would lose again against Cheney, which she no doubt knows, but she has a chance against Hageman.

In 2020 Cheney took 68.56% of the vote in the general election, meaning of course that the people who now claim she's really a Democrat are just being silly.  Grey Bull took 24.58%.  Libertarian Richard Brubaker, who made it clear that he was really a Republican, took 3.75%.  Constitution Party candidate Jeff Haggit, with the Constitution Party being a far right party, took 2.92%.  If Hageman wins, it's certain that many middle of the road Republicans will reassess voting for their party in the fall. Grey Bull was a long ways from victory in 2020, but the GOP wasn't the mess then that it is now.

June 22, 2022

The Natrona County GOP Central Committee passed the resolution noted above, 48 to 35.

June 23, 2022

Wyoming's appointed Superintendent of Public Education Brian Schroeder is urging the state to cut its ties with Federal funding for school lunches based on a Federal directive requiring states to include discrimination based on gender orientation and identity as matters requiring investigation.

June 24, 2022

In a move that's likely to prove to be a mistake, the Cheney campaign is specifically advertising on how Democrats can switch to Republicans in order to vote for her in the primary.

This will reinforce the otherwise absurd claim that she's a "RINO".  Moreover, there are so few registered Democrats in Wyoming, the race would have to be neck and neck, with upset fence sitting Republicans switching over to Hageman or perhaps one of the other candidates on their own.

This would suggest that Cheney knows she's on the downside in the race right now, but that she figures she's pretty close to Hageman, and that the risk is worth it.

June 27, 2022

A debate of House candidates will occur this Thursday on PBS.

Out of safety concerns, its closed to the public and other media.

June 30, 2022

Wyoming Republican House Debate:

A fairly well done synopsis of things:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1542866096537145345

Last Prior Edition:

The 2022 Election Part VIII. The late Spring Edition

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