Will moderate Republicans or nonaffiliated voters vote for Hageman?

It's a question that the GOP should be asking.

Right now, in spite of her dodging the question on whether she believes the election was stolen in the recent debates (she's highly intelligent and no doubt knows it wasn't), and in spite of the fact that there's no real difference between Hageman and Cheney but for the former's willingness to appease those who claim it was stolen, it appears probable that Hageman will win in the primary.

Keep in mind, however, this is not assured.

An item from Oil City News

In an October 2020 survey conducted by the University of Wyoming, 15% of the state’s respondents identified as “Democrat.” On the day of the August 2020 primary, a corresponding 18% of voters were registered as “Democrat.” By contrast, 70% percent of voters registered as Republicans but only 47% of survey respondents identified as Republicans. The difference between voter registration and identification percentages unquestionably results from independents — people who do not affiliate with any political party — registering as Republicans and participating in Republican primary elections. Among those identifying themselves as independents in the UW survey, 52% reported being registered to vote as Republican.

So, if we extrapolate that, from 2020, we get the following.

• 18% of Wyomingites are Democrats.
• 70% of Wyomingites registered as Republicans, but their attachment to the party is weak as;
• 47% of Wyomingites overall actually identify as independents.

Chances are high that independents are not registering as Democrats whatsoever.  The Democratic Party has been so down and out on its luck that there's be no point in that.  So we can further take from this that:

• 18% of Wyomingites are Democrats.
• 47% of Wyomingites are Republicans.
• The balance are Libertarians and other third party members, and independents.

Now, on that, we can probably feel that independents are sufficiently disenchanted with the GOP that they don't really identify with it too strongly, but that doesn't mean, by any means, that they are closet Democrats.  They are sufficiently disenchanted with it that they aren't registering as Democrats.

However, we know that some registered Republicans are cross over Democrats who moved in 2020.  More than that, and often missed, there's a large number who crossed over in the 1990s and 2000s.

What this tells us is that probably half of Wyoming's registered Republicans have low attachment, at best, to Trumpism.  That's a good thing for Cheney, and so maybe my prediction above is too glum.

But if it isn't, that would mean that at least 20% of the 70% who register Republicans probably are strongly opposed to what Hageman stands for.

And if that's true, that, and other factors, could boost Gray Bull's standings at the polls considerably.

She took 25% last time.  Cheney took 70%.  And a handful of third party candidates took the balance of 5%.

My guess is that about 5% will go to the margins again.  

Gray Bull is starting off at 25%.  If I'm right, she may very well come in at 45% just in the fashion noted.  That's leave Hageman at right at 50%, if my conservative estimates are right.

But they may be wrong, and they only have to be by 5% in order to put Gray Bull in Congress.

Long shot?  You bet.

Impossible.

Not at all.

It's happened here before.

Which is a good reason for Republicans to reconsider putting somebody who will win in the Fall, Cheney, on the ticket, rather than somebody who is guaranteed to cause defections, Hageman.