Saturday, February 28, 2026

Thursday, February 28, 1946. Ho Chi Minh asks Truman for help.

Putative President of Vietnam Ho Chi Minh telegrammed President Truman and asked him to dissuade France from returning troops to French Indochina. Truman did not reply.

Ho in 1946.

FDR would have almost certainly taken the opposite position from Truman, who supported France, and quietly have opposed France resuming colonial occupation of Indochina.

Ho was, of course, a Communist, so the rosy spin on the historical counterfactual here probably isn't all that warranted.

Béla Imrédy, age 54, former Prime Minister of Hungary from 1938 to 1939, was executed by firing squad for collaboration with the Nazis.

Last edition:

Wednesday, February 27, 1946. What is Russia up to now?

Friday, February 27, 2026

As a nearly random observation, any time anyone tags a private enterprise project to National Defense, it's a complete money loser.

An email from Rep. Hageman is doing that with "clean coal".  Secretary of Defense Hegseth just said the same thing.

Horse hockey.  Coal quit being relevant to national defense the moment the Royal Navy switched to oil.

Highways, I'd note, were the same way.  We built the Interstate Highway system as states couldn't afford to do it and nobody could compete with rail  "Needed for defense".  Oh bull. The military still ships by rail.

This is always just a way to prop something up with Federal money or a Federal program.  Some claim that's why the  Air Force bought Studebaker trucks just before Studebaker went belly up, or why the service bought Dodge trucks for so many years, and mind you I like Studebaker and Dodge trucks.

The 2026 Wyoming Legislature, Part 5. The Ignorant don't realize how ignorant they really are edition.


Week three, and we get this:
Courthouses of the West: After abortion ruling, lawmaker tries to deny Wyom...: After abortion ruling, lawmaker tries to deny Wyoming court security funding  The House struck down Rep. Rachel Rodriguez-Williams’ amendmen...

Californian Rachel Rodriguez-Williams likely wasn't around when far right paranoia caused the constitutional amendment which set this situation up, so she isn't personally to blame for the abortion ruling.

But the Republican Party in Wyoming, is.  Like the Soviet submariner officer, in The Hunt For Red October, what rank and file Republicans ought to be saying is "You arrogant ass, you killed us!"

The WFC, we'd note, is still attacking UW's budget.

Donald Trump's biggest fan took a blow:

February 25, 2026

Wyoming Freedom Caucus fills House negotiating team tasked with bridging $170M budget gap

Great, the Carpet Bagger Caucus that would return Wyoming to 1860 South Carolina will be a major say in the budget once again.

Cont:

Opinion: Wyoming Doesn’t Need Saving

February 26, 2026

I didn't even know that this blatantly unconstitutional bill sponsored by carpetbagging Chuck Gray" had been around:

Voting ban proposal for certain dual citizens dies

February 27, 2026

The Bextel Bucks hearing commenced with Bextel using the Confederate Caucus claim that "there's Republicans pretending to be Democrats in here" as some sort of excuse before Art Washut graveled her down.

In her defense, that's true.  She is one.  So is Bear.   So is Allemand. So are all the of the Freedom Caucus. They're not Republicans, they're Dixiecrats through and through.

February 28, 2026

Some good news:

Lawmakers restore most UW funding in unified budget, including $40M block grant

And the Confederate Caucus may complain about the fact that they were such moronic idiots they took checks on the House floor and got caught:



Last edition:

The 2026 Wyoming Legislature, Part 4. The Held Up Edition

Wednesday, February 27, 1946. What is Russia up to now?

Secretary of the Navy James Forrestal lifted restrictions on assignments for Black sailors.

Republican Senator Arthur Vandenberg delivered his "What is Russia up to now" speech in which he criticized the Truman Administration's policy of cozying up to the Soviet Union.

Who would guess that 80 years later the GOP President would have the biggest crush possible on the leader of Russia?  But then who would guess that the GOP would evolve into a party of sycophantic stooges?

Truman asked Herbert Hoover to help convince Americans to aid in worldwide famine relief.

Last edition:

Friday, February 22, 1946. The Long Telegram.

Thursday, February 26, 2026

CliffsNotes of the Zeitgeist, 120th Edition. The smoke edition

Throughout the Epstein files saga, we've repeatedly heard that "there's nothing to implicate Donald Trump. . . "

Well now there is.

It's been affirmatively revealed that the FBI scrubbed interviews of a woman who accused Trump and Epstein of abusing her when she was an underaged teenager.

As we've noted in a recent edition of this series, we've been told that we should not doubt the women.

Did Trump screw underage teenage girls?  We don't know, but at this point, there's more than enough of a suggestion here to raise the question.  Frankly, given the people he was hanging out with, their proclivities, and his own demonstrated ones, it would be surprising if he didn't cross that line.  He'd be like a vegetarian that was hanging out repeatedly in the butcher shop.  Perhaps more accurately, he'd be like a guy with a taste for drinking declining as they didn't have his favorite brand.

We don't know, of course.   But we do know what his behavior is with adult women and that has hardly been chaste.  We also know that it's been scientifically demonstrated that men who reach a sex partner tally of eight start looking below 18 years old for them, and Trump is at an approximate third of that number just in wives.  If we add Stormy Daniels, we know he's at least at half that number, and only a fool would think the number isn't higher.

We can be confident, however, that this is just going to be ignored, at least for the time being.  It'll be another thing that will be discussed in Trump tell all books after he's dead.  None of the topics that will be revealed will be pleasant.  We can have some hope that, as the Epstein victims were all so young, that something resembling the truth might ultimately be revealed about what happened to them.  Having said that, the truth on John F. Kennedy's dalliances took decades to really fully come out.

We might also note that Mimi Alford (née Beardsley) was 19 years old when John F. Kennedy started screwing her, and Kennedy at least publicly pretended to be a moral man, even if his affairs demonstrate otherwise.  The implications for the affair being revealed in the public would have been devastating to Kennedy.  Likewise, Harding's affair with Nan Britton started when she was about 20 years old, and Britton was known to be the second mistress Harding  had.  The point in both instances is that cheaters not only cheat, they cheat downwards in age.

Melania Trump was 28 when she started dating a 52 year old Trump. Even now, outside of the wealthy, that would normally be regarded as weird.  

So, did Trump hang around where the teenage entrées were on the menu, or was he never offered the menu?  Maybe.  But by now, certainly the questions are legitimate.

Last edition:

CliffsNotes of the Zeitgeist, 119th Edition. Comments on Culture. A Galwaywoman's comment on men and women, Rubio's comments on Western Civilization, and Hegseth hosts a Christian Nationalist.

Nolan Finley: It’s time to end the State of the Union

Nolan Finely beat me to the punch:

He is quite correct.  The show of the State of the Union Speech, based on the reporting, would have been more proper for Baathist Iran, North Korea, or Nazi Germany.  It wasn't a real State of the Union Address.

There hasn't been one for some time.  

Television destroyed what was once a serious endeavor.  If you look at old State of the Union addresses, particularly when they were still written, they were serious matters.  Now they have all the dignity of a pole dancer performing at a strip club, and they're getting worse.  

Any honest State of the Union delivered since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic would have to start off with "the State of the Union is grave" or words to that effect. An honest one now would have to start off with "the State of the Union is gravely imperiled" and go on from there.  The United States is in really bad shape, not all due to Donald Trump, but with everything about Donald Trump making the nation's condition much, much, worse.  

The nation is hugely polarized.  About 40% of the nation have fallen under the spell of an unintelligent but effective salesman.  Hatreds long thought in the past have revived in an aggressive form.  Congress has completely failed to perform its job, something it started to do at least as far back as the 1980s.  An attack on education and science that began under the Ronald Reagan administration has produced a drove of ignorant ill informed voters.  Ignoring a growing immigration crisis that started in the 1970s fueled massive Rust Belt discontent.  Over funding an all volunteer military has resulted in the creation of a post Cold War military class that's become an a danger to the nation itself.  Ignoring global warming is imperiling the entire plant while lining the pocked of an oligarch class that's rapidly depriving the same Rust Belt class that's now supporting it of any middle class way of making a living.  Ignoring science has also lead to a complete inability to understand basic human biological facts. 

This country is an utter disaster, and it's lead right now by a stupid man whose intellect is crashing into dementia.

Trump is a mentally ill man to start with.  Raised in a family that managed to avoid serving in times of war and whose wealth was started off by a German immigrant (ironically) who engaged in the sex trade, he's always been a self centered man focused on greed and engaging in lust.  In his dementia, he cannot see the world in any manner other than acquisition, and believes his own propaganda about his having a unique understanding of the "art of the deal".  He's the laughing stock of the globe, and at a some point fairly soon in the United States, he'll be regarded as the worst president in the nation's history and the worst human being to ever occupy the Oval Office.  If there's anything redeeming to Trump's reign at all it will be that his profoundly bad occupation of that office has demonstrated how severely various reforms to the Constitution are needed.

Be that as it may, the nation is not going to emerge from Trump the nation it was.  It will be a second rate nation, and that will be due to him, and those who served him.  The US will crawl back to the family of Western nations, but it will just be one of them, not the leader of them.  That's now fallen to the European Union.

When that occurs the millions who followed Trump will deny it, including some of those working for him now . Vance and Rubio will be two who will assert that they were never Trumpites.

On that, we digress.  State of the Union addresses were once written and they were much better when they were. Those days should return.  They were not intended to be an perverted administration's stripping performance while lustful inebriated fans cheered the stripper, which is what they now are.  Today's state of the union addresses are embarrassing in the extreme and not something a mature dignified nation would do, but then, right now, we are not a mature dignified nation.

State of the Union addresses should go back to being written.  If they are delivered orally, they should be given during the work day as they should reflect serious work.  And, frankly, there should be a mechanism, and a severe one at that, that if they are dishonest, there should be an immediate impact.  For example, although now it would have no legal impact, immediately after any oral State of the Union address there should be a vote of confidence.  If a simple majority votes note, the authority of the President should be suspended until he can come back in front of Congress and the nation and not act like a buffoon.

That would require, of course, a serious Congress as well, which we also lack.

Saturday, February 26, 1876. The Japan Korea Treaty of Amity.

Japan and Korean signed the Japan Korea Treaty of Amity, formally ending Korea's status as a tributary state of the Chinese Qing Dynasty, but giving Japan special rights in an independent Korea.


While it recognized Korean independence, the treaty treated Korea as an inferior state, and was a step on the way to colonization of the peninsula.

Last edition:

Monday, February 15, 1876. Texas adopts its current constitution.

Labels: 

Sunday, February 22, 2026

The 2026 Wyoming Legislature, Part 4. The Held Up Edition

 February 16, 2026

TA Ranch.

The invaders arrived and confident of the success of their mission, as well as the mission itself, detrained and headed out, certain of victory.

And then the unexpected intervened. They didn't know the climate of where they were, and ran into delay.  And soon they ran into diversion as well, thinking that with limited time they could still stop to act on detours.

The locals rallied, held them up, and started gunning them down.

Week two of the 2026 legislature commences, the carpetbaggers held up and besieged, as has happened before.

February 17, 2024

A warning about the stupidity of gutting the state's tax system:


Not that most of the Freedom Caucus, which has a "get off my lawn" type of attitude, and which lives in a Southern fantasyland, seems to really care, or so it seems.  I guess we'll see.

I will note, however, that fire board lives out in the county and was put in place by rural voters who voted for Trump, and I'll bet most of them did as well.  The Freedom Caucus is the same Dixiecrat type of voter that voted in the Freedom Caucus.  So, they're getting just what they voted for.

And the scandal grows:


Years ago a very senior member of the legislature told me that the far right was now buying the legislature.  What Bextel did was monumentally stupid, she has to be the most tone-deaf person in the state, but it likely was not illegal. The implications are serious, however.  The "Wyoming" Freedom Caucus is heavy funded by out of state money or, in this case Carpetbagger Cash.

The item here, broken by the Jackson Hole News &  Guide:
CHEYENNE—The Jackson man who wrote the campaign donation checks at the center of a growing controversy in the Wyoming Capitol says two were intended for the Speaker of the House and the former head of the Wyoming Freedom Caucus.

Whether or not Speaker Chip Neiman, R-Hulett, or Rep. John Bear, R-Gillette, received or accepted the checks could not be determined by press time. Neither lawmaker responded to requests for comment before publication.

 And:

Freedom Caucus lawmaker Bear accepted controversial campaign check from activist; other legislators remain mum: Gillette Republican Rep. John Bear said he accepted a check from Bextel, but not on the House floor.
The truth of the matter is that when this sort of political thought came into the state, it came in from the outside and was backed by outside people.  Some of the early proponents of the Freedom Caucus nonsense, like Secretary of State Chuck Gray, and Bear, are outsiders.

Bextel, originally from Arkansas (of course) has done the state a big favor by exposing this sort of behavior.

Former legislators reactions:
This adds a serious new wrinkle to the story:
Bextel has said publicly that she was distributing lawful campaign checks on behalf of a Teton County donor, and that she did so in person because she knew she’d be in Cheyenne.

It also happened two days before the reported recipients on the House side, among others, voted in favor of introducing a bill Bextel has championed.

I still very much doubt that this meets the criteria necessary to be considered bribery, but there is a bit of smoke there.  Added to that, some of the cash recipients are not campaigning this year. 

So what was that bill that the cash donor had an interest in?  That's discussed here:

Wyoming’s ‘Checkgate’ is all about the Freedom Caucus’ political games - WyoFile: GOP activist who handed out money to lawmakers on House floor claims she’s leveling the playing field for conservatives, writes columnist Kerry Drake.

As stated in the article:

The incident became a news story on Wednesday during debate on an anti-affordable housing bill that Bextel was lobbying lawmakers to support. Rep. Mike Yin, D-Jackson, questioned voting on House Bill 141, “Fifth Amendment Defense Act,” when one of its prime supporters was seen distributing checks to lawmakers on the floor two days earlier. But he did not name Bextel or any legislators who received checks.

While I've abstained from posing the text of bills on these threads this year, this one deserves a look:

Fifth Amendment Protection Act.

Sponsored by: Representative(s) Bear, Haroldson, Heiner, Knapp, Locke and Neiman and Senator(s) Hicks, Hutchings, Ide, Kolb, McKeown, Pearson, Salazar and Steinmetz

A BILL

for

AN ACT relating to cities, towns and counties; prohibiting cities, towns and counties from imposing fees or conditions related to housing on residential or commercial development as specified; specifying applicability; and providing for an effective date.

Be It Enacted by the Legislature of the State of Wyoming:

Section 1.  W.S. 15‑1‑612 and 18‑5‑209 are created to read: 

15‑1‑612.  Prohibitions on fees and conditions related to housing on residential or commercial development.

No governing body of a city or town shall impose a monetary fee, nonmonetary condition or other concession related to the provision of workforce housing, unmet housing needs or affordable housing on residential or commercial development within the jurisdiction of the governing body.

18‑5‑209.  Prohibitions on fees and conditions related to housing on residential or commercial development.

No board of county commissioners shall impose a monetary fee, nonmonetary condition or other concession related to the provision of workforce housing, unmet housing needs or affordable housing on residential or commercial development within the jurisdiction of the county.

Section 2.

(a)  This act shall apply to all applications for permits submitted for residential or commercial development on or after July 1, 2026.

(b)  Nothing in this act shall be construed to modify or impair existing contracts or obligations regarding residential or commercial development and the imposition of monetary fees, nonmonetary conditions or other concessions executed before July 1, 2026.

Section 3.  This act is effective July 1, 2026.

So the money came from Teton County big bucks, which to at least some extent, must now want the servant class living in Teton County.  Let them commute from Driggs, apparently.

Can't have that riff raff living in Jackson, now can we? 

Every recipient of the cash donation should resign. . . but none of them will.  The Legislature, for that matter, out to censure them by sidelining them for the remainder of the session. I.e., as they have to right to refuse to seat, they ought to send them to the benches and let them cool their jets at home this session.

And this does stink.  A wealthy carpetbagger from Teton County gives checks to a carpetbagger from Teton County to pass out to certain favorites as a housing bill principally impacting Teton County (but also Natrona County) is debated.

I doubt the District Attorney from the 1st Judicial District will do anything with that.  I don't think I would, but it looks pretty weird.

Speaking of Gray:
Senate panel advances bill to increase accountability for commercial registered agents: More than 830,000 LLC filings generated almost $60M for Wyoming last year, but secrecy raises concern about fraud, scams

That must keep his stamping fingers busy like crazy. 

Speaking of buying votes, Lummis spoke at the legislature and spoke on Trumpbucks.

Lummis Announces Kraken Will Fund Trump Accounts For Every Wyoming Newborn In 2026

That's not buying votes, but Kraken is trying to buy good will.

Part of the problem is that data centers are driving up electrical demand like crazy.  A sane country, that was doing this, would be building nuclear plants like crazy, but we're not sane right now.  Instead, Trump is backing Dying Dirty Coal.

February 18, 2026

This is probably the first time that Carpetbagging Chuck has been silent on anything since he he showed up in Casper with luggage.  Usually he'd be out blaming the left wing radicals he claims are lurking around every single corner in the state conspiring against decency, apple pie, and poor old Donny Trump.

Here he's shut his trap.

Hmmm. . . . 

Well after all of his blathering if he doesn't condemn what happened, he's a hypocrite.

But then Bextel hosted a fundraiser for her fellow carpetbagger back in January.  It was closed to the press. . . 

February 20, 2026

Wyoming House Rejects Adding Extraterrestrials, Animals, To Sex Books Ban

"Check Gate" has really busted wide open, putting the WFC on the spot after they condemned accusations that proved to be true.  Carbon County's GOP has called for the resignation of some members of their own party.  Frankly Bear and Niemann, who haven't been asked to resign yet, should resign or be removed by the legislature.  

Chuck Gray remains silent for the first time that he carried his carpetbag across the state line.

February 22, 2026

So we're ten days in to a 21 day session and the House is way behind on the budget, the one thing they have to actually accomplish. 

The Confederate Caucus turns out not to be very effective at getting things done, in a budget session, and so things aren't for the most part, getting done.  Meanwhile the drama of Freedom Caucus getting checks from Rebecca Bextel on behalf of some moneybucks guy goes on, with the thing excuse being a claim that nothing wrong was done and it isn't illegal.

It likely isn't illegal, but it doesn't look good.

And so ends week two.

Last edition:

The 2026 Wyoming Legislature, Part 3. The Confederate Legislature Edition.

Friday, February 22, 1946. The Long Telegram.

George Kennan sent the "Long Telegram" which would outline US foreign policy for the next 50 years.

861.00/2 - 2246: Telegram

The Charge in the Soviet Union (Kennan) to the Secretary of State

SECRET

Moscow, February 22, 1946--9 p.m. [Received February 22--3: 52 p.m.]

511. Answer to Dept's 284, Feb 3 [13] involves questions so intricate, so delicate, so strange to our form of thought, and so important to analysis of our international environment that I cannot compress answers into single brief message without yielding to what I feel would be dangerous degree of over-simplification. I hope, therefore, Dept will bear with me if I submit in answer to this question five parts, subjects of which will be roughly as follows:

(1) Basic features of post-war Soviet outlook.

(2) Background of this outlook

(3) Its projection in practical policy on official level.

(4) Its projection on unofficial level.

(5) Practical deductions from standpoint of US policy.

I apologize in advance for this burdening of telegraphic channel; but questions involved are of such urgent importance, particularly in view of recent events, that our answers to them, if they deserve attention at all, seem to me to deserve it at once. There follows

Part 1: Basic Features of Post War Soviet Outlook, as Put Forward by Official Propaganda Machine

Are as Follows:

(a) USSR still lives in antagonistic "capitalist encirclement" with which in the long run there can be no permanent peaceful coexistence. As stated by Stalin in 1927 to a delegation of American workers:

"In course of further development of international revolution there will emerge two centers of world significance: a socialist center, drawing to itself the countries which tend toward socialism, and a capitalist center, drawing to itself the countries that incline toward capitalism. Battle between these two centers for command of world economy will decide fate of capitalism and of communism in entire world."

(b) Capitalist world is beset with internal conflicts, inherent in nature of capitalist society. These conflicts are insoluble by means of peaceful compromise. Greatest of them is that between England and US.

(c) Internal conflicts of capitalism inevitably generate wars. Wars thus generated may be of two kinds: intra-capitalist wars between two capitalist states, and wars of intervention against socialist world. Smart capitalists, vainly seeking escape from inner conflicts of capitalism, incline toward latter.

(d) Intervention against USSR, while it would be disastrous to those who undertook it, would cause renewed delay in progress of Soviet socialism and must therefore be forestalled at all costs.

(e) Conflicts between capitalist states, though likewise fraught with danger for USSR, nevertheless hold out great possibilities for advancement of socialist cause, particularly if USSR remains militarily powerful, ideologically monolithic and faithful to its present brilliant leadership.

(f) It must be borne in mind that capitalist world is not all bad. In addition to hopelessly reactionary and bourgeois elements, it includes (1) certain wholly enlightened and positive elements united in acceptable communistic parties and (2) certain other elements (now described for tactical reasons as progressive or democratic) whose reactions, aspirations and activities happen to be "objectively" favorable to interests of USSR These last must be encouraged and utilized for Soviet purposes.

(g) Among negative elements of bourgeois-capitalist society, most dangerous of all are those whom Lenin called false friends of the people, namely moderate-socialist or social-democratic leaders (in other words, non-Communist left-wing). These are more dangerous than out-and-out reactionaries, for latter at least march under their true colors, whereas moderate left-wing leaders confuse people by employing devices of socialism to seine interests of reactionary capital.

So much for premises. To what deductions do they lead from standpoint of Soviet policy? To following:

(a) Everything must be done to advance relative strength of USSR as factor in international society. Conversely, no opportunity most be missed to reduce strength and influence, collectively as well as individually, of capitalist powers.

(b) Soviet efforts, and those of Russia's friends abroad, must be directed toward deepening and exploiting of differences and conflicts between capitalist powers. If these eventually deepen into an "imperialist" war, this war must be turned into revolutionary upheavals within the various capitalist countries.

(c) "Democratic-progressive" elements abroad are to be utilized to maximum to bring pressure to bear on capitalist governments along lines agreeable to Soviet interests.

(d) Relentless battle must be waged against socialist and social-democratic leaders abroad.

Part 2: Background of Outlook

Before examining ramifications of this party line in practice there are certain aspects of it to which I wish to draw attention.

First, it does not represent natural outlook of Russian people. Latter are, by and large, friendly to outside world, eager for experience of it, eager to measure against it talents they are conscious of possessing, eager above all to live in peace and enjoy fruits of their own labor. Party line only represents thesis which official propaganda machine puts forward with great skill and persistence to a public often remarkably resistant in the stronghold of its innermost thoughts. But party line is binding for outlook and conduct of people who make up apparatus of power--party, secret police and Government--and it is exclusively with these that we have to deal.

Second, please note that premises on which this party line is based are for most part simply not true. Experience has shown that peaceful and mutually profitable coexistence of capitalist and socialist states is entirely possible. Basic internal conflicts in advanced countries are no longer primarily those arising out of capitalist ownership of means of production, but are ones arising from advanced urbanism and industrialism as such, which Russia has thus far been spared not by socialism but only by her own backwardness. Internal rivalries of capitalism do not always generate wars; and not all wars are attributable to this cause. To speak of possibility of intervention against USSR today, after elimination of Germany and Japan and after example of recent war, is sheerest nonsense. If not provoked by forces of intolerance and subversion "capitalist" world of today is quite capable of living at peace with itself and with Russia. Finally, no sane person has reason to doubt sincerity of moderate socialist leaders in Western countries. Nor is it fair to deny success of their efforts to improve conditions for working population whenever, as in Scandinavia, they have been given chance to show what they could do.

Falseness of those premises, every one of which predates recent war, was amply demonstrated by that conflict itself Anglo-American differences did not turn out to be major differences of Western World. Capitalist countries, other than those of Axis, showed no disposition to solve their differences by joining in crusade against USSR. Instead of imperialist war turning into civil wars and revolution, USSR found itself obliged to fight side by side with capitalist powers for an avowed community of aim.

Nevertheless, all these theses, however baseless and disproven, are being boldly put forward again today. What does this indicate? It indicates that Soviet party line is not based on any objective analysis of situation beyond Russia's borders; that it has, indeed, little to do with conditions outside of Russia; that it arises mainly from basic inner-Russian necessities which existed before recent war and exist today.

At bottom of Kremlin's neurotic view of world affairs is traditional and instinctive Russian sense of insecurity. Originally, this was insecurity of a peaceful agricultural people trying to live on vast exposed plain in neighborhood of fierce nomadic peoples. To this was added, as Russia came into contact with economically advanced West, fear of more competent, more powerful, more highly organized societies in that area. But this latter type of insecurity was one which afflicted rather Russian rulers than Russian people; for Russian rulers have invariably sensed that their rule was relatively archaic in form fragile and artificial in its psychological foundation, unable to stand comparison or contact with political systems of Western countries. For this reason they have always feared foreign penetration, feared direct contact between Western world and their own, feared what would happen if Russians learned truth about world without or if foreigners learned truth about world within. And they have learned to seek security only in patient but deadly struggle for total destruction of rival power, never in compacts and compromises with it.

It was no coincidence that Marxism, which had smoldered ineffectively for half a century in Western Europe, caught hold and blazed for first time in Russia. Only in this land which had never known a friendly neighbor or indeed any tolerant equilibrium of separate powers, either internal or international, could a doctrine thrive which viewed economic conflicts of society as insoluble by peaceful means. After establishment of Bolshevist regime, Marxist dogma, rendered even more truculent and intolerant by Lenin's interpretation, became a perfect vehicle for sense of insecurity with which Bolsheviks, even more than previous Russian rulers, were afflicted. In this dogma, with its basic altruism of purpose, they found justification for their instinctive fear of outside world, for the dictatorship without which they did not know how to rule, for cruelties they did not dare not to inflict, for sacrifice they felt bound to demand. In the name of Marxism they sacrificed every single ethical value in their methods and tactics. Today they cannot dispense with it. It is fig leaf of their moral and intellectual respectability. Without it they would stand before history, at best, as only the last of that long succession of cruel and wasteful Russian rulers who have relentlessly forced country on to ever new heights of military power in order to guarantee external security of their internally weak regimes. This is why Soviet purposes most always be solemnly clothed in trappings of Marxism, and why no one should underrate importance of dogma in Soviet affairs. Thus Soviet leaders are driven [by?] necessities of their own past and present position to put forward which [apparent omission] outside world as evil, hostile and menacing, but as bearing within itself germs of creeping disease and destined to be wracked with growing internal convulsions until it is given final Coup de grace by rising power of socialism and yields to new and better world. This thesis provides justification for that increase of military and police power of Russian state, for that isolation of Russian population from outside world, and for that fluid and constant pressure to extend limits of Russian police power which are together the natural and instinctive urges of Russian rulers. Basically this is only the steady advance of uneasy Russian nationalism, a centuries old movement in which conceptions of offense and defense are inextricably confused. But in new guise of international Marxism, with its honeyed promises to a desperate and war torn outside world, it is more dangerous and insidious than ever before.

It should not be thought from above that Soviet party line is necessarily disingenuous and insincere on part of all those who put it forward. Many of them are too ignorant of outside world and mentally too dependent to question [apparent omission] self-hypnotism, and who have no difficulty making themselves believe what they find it comforting and convenient to believe. Finally we have the unsolved mystery as to who, if anyone, in this great land actually receives accurate and unbiased information about outside world. In atmosphere of oriental secretiveness and conspiracy which pervades this Government, possibilities for distorting or poisoning sources and currents of information are infinite. The very disrespect of Russians for objective truth--indeed, their disbelief in its existence--leads them to view all stated facts as instruments for furtherance of one ulterior purpose or another. There is good reason to suspect that this Government is actually a conspiracy within a conspiracy; and I for one am reluctant to believe that Stalin himself receives anything like an objective picture of outside world. Here there is ample scope for the type of subtle intrigue at which Russians are past masters. Inability of foreign governments to place their case squarely before Russian policy makers--extent to which they are delivered up in their relations with Russia to good graces of obscure and unknown advisors whom they never see and cannot influence--this to my mind is most disquieting feature of diplomacy in Moscow, and one which Western statesmen would do well to keep in mind if they would understand nature of difficulties encountered here.

Part 3: Projection of Soviet Outlook in Practical Policy on Official Level

We have now seen nature and background of Soviet program. What may we expect by way of its practical implementation?

Soviet policy, as Department implies in its query under reference, is conducted on two planes: (1) official plane represented by actions undertaken officially in name of Soviet Government; and (2) subterranean plane of actions undertaken by agencies for which Soviet Government does not admit responsibility.

Policy promulgated on both planes will be calculated to serve basic policies (a) to (d) outlined in part 1. Actions taken on different planes will differ considerably, but will dovetail into each other in purpose, timing and effect.

On official plane we must look for following:

(a) Internal policy devoted to increasing in every way strength and prestige of Soviet state: intensive military-industrialization; maximum development of armed forces; great displays to impress outsiders; continued secretiveness about internal matters, designed to conceal weaknesses and to keep opponents in dark.

(b) Wherever it is considered timely and promising, efforts will be made to advance official limits of Soviet power. For the moment, these efforts are restricted to certain neighboring points conceived of here as being of immediate strategic necessity, such as Northern Iran, Turkey, possibly Bornholm However, other points may at any time come into question, if and as concealed Soviet political power is extended to new areas. Thus a "friendly Persian Government might be asked to grant Russia a port on Persian Gulf. Should Spain fall under Communist control, question of Soviet base at Gibraltar Strait might be activated. But such claims will appear on official level only when unofficial preparation is complete.

(c) Russians will participate officially in international organizations where they see opportunity of extending Soviet power or of inhibiting or diluting power of others. Moscow sees in UNO not the mechanism for a permanent and stable world society founded on mutual interest and aims of all nations, but an arena in which aims just mentioned can be favorably pursued. As long as UNO is considered here to serve this purpose, Soviets will remain with it. But if at any time they come to conclusion that it is serving to embarrass or frustrate their aims for power expansion and if they see better prospects for pursuit of these aims along other lines, they will not hesitate to abandon UNO. This would imply, however, that they felt themselves strong enough to split unity of other nations by their withdrawal to render UNO ineffective as a threat to their aims or security, replace it with an international weapon more effective from their viewpoint. Thus Soviet attitude toward UNO will depend largely on loyalty of other nations to it, and on degree of vigor, decisiveness and cohesion with which those nations defend in UNO the peaceful and hopeful concept of international life, which that organization represents to our way of thinking. I reiterate, Moscow has no abstract devotion to UNO ideals. Its attitude to that organization will remain essentially pragmatic and tactical.

(d) Toward colonial areas and backward or dependent peoples, Soviet policy, even on official plane, will be directed toward weakening of power and influence and contacts of advanced Western nations, on theory that in so far as this policy is successful, there will be created a vacuum which will favor Communist-Soviet penetration. Soviet pressure for participation in trusteeship arrangements thus represents, in my opinion, a desire to be in a position to complicate and inhibit exertion of Western influence at such points rather than to provide major channel for exerting of Soviet power. Latter motive is not lacking, but for this Soviets prefer to rely on other channels than official trusteeship arrangements. Thus we may expect to find Soviets asking for admission everywhere to trusteeship or similar arrangements and using levers thus acquired to weaken Western influence among such peoples.

(e) Russians will strive energetically to develop Soviet representation in, and official ties with, countries in which they sense Strong possibilities of opposition to Western centers of power. This applies to such widely separated points as Germany, Argentina, Middle Eastern countries, etc.

(f) In international economic matters, Soviet policy will really be dominated by pursuit of autarchy for Soviet Union and Soviet-dominated adjacent areas taken together. That, however, will be underlying policy. As far as official line is concerned, position is not yet clear. Soviet Government has shown strange reticence since termination hostilities on subject foreign trade. If large scale long term credits should be forthcoming, I believe Soviet Government may eventually again do lip service, as it did in 1930's to desirability of building up international economic exchanges in general. Otherwise I think it possible Soviet foreign trade may be restricted largely to Soviet's own security sphere, including occupied areas in Germany, and that a cold official shoulder may be turned to principle of general economic collaboration among nations.

(g) With respect to cultural collaboration, lip service will likewise be rendered to desirability of deepening cultural contacts between peoples, but this will not in practice be interpreted in any way which could weaken security position of Soviet peoples. Actual manifestations of Soviet policy in this respect will be restricted to arid channels of closely shepherded official visits and functions, with superabundance of vodka and speeches and dearth of permanent effects.

(h) Beyond this, Soviet official relations will take what might be called "correct" course with individual foreign governments, with great stress being laid on prestige of Soviet Union and its representatives and with punctilious attention to protocol as distinct from good manners.

Part 4: Following May Be Said as to What We May Expect by Way of Implementation of Basic Soviet Policies on Unofficial, or Subterranean Plane, i.e. on Plane for Which Soviet Government Accepts no Responsibility

Agencies utilized for promulgation of policies on this plane are following:

1. Inner central core of Communist Parties in other countries. While many of persons who compose this category may also appear and act in unrelated public capacities, they are in reality working closely together as an underground operating directorate of world communism, a concealed Comintern tightly coordinated and directed by Moscow. It is important to remember that this inner core is actually working on underground lines, despite legality of parties with which it is associated.

2. Rank and file of Communist Parties. Note distinction is drawn between those and persons defined in paragraph 1. This distinction has become much sharper in recent years. Whereas formerly foreign Communist Parties represented a curious (and from Moscow's standpoint often inconvenient) mixture of conspiracy and legitimate activity, now the conspiratorial element has been neatly concentrated in inner circle and ordered underground, while rank and file--no longer even taken into confidence about realities of movement--are thrust forward as bona fide internal partisans of certain political tendencies within their respective countries, genuinely innocent of conspiratorial connection with foreign states. Only in certain countries where communists are numerically strong do they now regularly appear and act as a body. As a rule they are used to penetrate, and to influence or dominate, as case may be, other organizations less likely to be suspected of being tools of Soviet Government, with a view to accomplishing their purposes through [apparent omission] organizations, rather than by direct action as a separate political party.

3. A wide variety of national associations or bodies which can be dominated or influenced by such penetration. These include: labor unions, youth leagues, women's organizations, racial societies, religious societies, social organizations, cultural groups, liberal magazines, publishing houses, etc.

4. International organizations which can be similarly penetrated through influence over various national components. Labor, youth and women's organizations are prominent among them. Particular, almost vital importance is attached in this connection to international labor movement. In this, Moscow sees possibility of sidetracking western governments in world affairs and building up international lobby capable of compelling governments to take actions favorable to Soviet interests in various countries and of paralyzing actions disagreeable to USSR

5. Russian Orthodox Church, with its foreign branches, and through it the Eastern Orthodox Church in general.

6. Pan-Slav movement and other movements (Azerbaijan, Armenian, Turcoman, etc.) based on racial groups within Soviet Union.

7. Governments or governing groups willing to lend themselves to Soviet purposes in one degree or another, such as present Bulgarian and Yugoslav Governments, North Persian regime, Chinese Communists, etc. Not only propaganda machines but actual policies of these regimes can be placed extensively at disposal of USSR

It may be expected that component parts of this far-flung apparatus will be utilized in accordance with their individual suitability, as follows:

(a) To undermine general political and strategic potential of major western powers. Efforts will be made in such countries to disrupt national self confidence, to hamstring measures of national defense, to increase social and industrial unrest, to stimulate all forms of disunity. All persons with grievances, whether economic or racial, will be urged to spelt redress not in mediation and compromise, but in defiant violent struggle for destruction of other elements of society. Here poor will be set against rich, black against white, young against old, newcomers against established residents, etc.

(b) On unofficial plane particularly violent efforts will be made to weaken power and influence of Western Powers of [on] colonial backward, or dependent peoples. On this level, no holds will be barred. Mistakes and weaknesses of western colonial administration will be mercilessly exposed and exploited. Liberal opinion in Western countries will be mobilized to weaken colonial policies. Resentment among dependent peoples will be stimulated. And while latter are being encouraged to seek independence of Western Powers, Soviet dominated puppet political machines will be undergoing preparation to take over domestic power in respective colonial areas when independence is achieved.

(c) Where individual governments stand in path of Soviet purposes pressure will be brought for their removal from office. This can happen where governments directly oppose Soviet foreign policy aims (Turkey, Iran), where they seal their territories off against Communist penetration (Switzerland, Portugal), or where they compete too strongly, like Labor Government in England, for moral domination among elements which it is important for Communists to dominate. (Sometimes, two of these elements are present in a single case. Then Communist opposition becomes particularly shrill and savage. [)]

(d) In foreign countries Communists will, as a rule, work toward destruction of all forms of personal independence, economic, political or moral. Their system can handle only individuals who have been brought into complete dependence on higher power. Thus, persons who are financially independent--such as individual businessmen, estate owners, successful farmers, artisans and all those who exercise local leadership or have local prestige, such as popular local clergymen or political figures, are anathema. It is not by chance that even in USSR local officials are kept constantly on move from one job to another, to prevent their taking root.

(e) Everything possible will be done to set major Western Powers against each other. Anti-British talk will be plugged among Americans, anti-American talk among British. Continentals, including Germans, will be taught to abhor both Anglo-Saxon powers. Where suspicions exist, they will be fanned; where not, ignited. No effort will be spared to discredit and combat all efforts which threaten to lead to any sort of unity or cohesion among other [apparent omission] from which Russia might be excluded. Thus, all forms of international organization not amenable to Communist penetration and control, whether it be the Catholic [apparent omission] international economic concerns, or the international fraternity of royalty and aristocracy, must expect to find themselves under fire from many, and often [apparent omission].

(f) In general, all Soviet efforts on unofficial international plane will be negative and destructive in character, designed to tear down sources of strength beyond reach of Soviet control. This is only in line with basic Soviet instinct that there can be no compromise with rival power and that constructive work can start only when Communist power is doming But behind all this will be applied insistent, unceasing pressure for penetration and command of key positions in administration and especially in police apparatus of foreign countries. The Soviet regime is a police regime par excellence, reared in the dim half world of Tsarist police intrigue, accustomed to think primarily in terms of police power. This should never be lost sight of in ganging Soviet motives.

Part 5: [Practical Deductions From Standpoint of US Policy]

In summary, we have here a political force committed fanatically to the belief that with US there can be no permanent modus vivendi that it is desirable and necessary that the internal harmony of our society be disrupted, our traditional way of life be destroyed, the international authority of our state be broken, if Soviet power is to be secure. This political force has complete power of disposition over energies of one of world's greatest peoples and resources of world's richest national territory, and is borne along by deep and powerful currents of Russian nationalism. In addition, it has an elaborate and far flung apparatus for exertion of its influence in other countries, an apparatus of amazing flexibility and versatility, managed by people whose experience and skill in underground methods are presumably without parallel in history. Finally, it is seemingly inaccessible to considerations of reality in its basic reactions. For it, the vast fund of objective fact about human society is not, as with us, the measure against which outlook is constantly being tested and re-formed, but a grab bag from which individual items are selected arbitrarily and tendenciously to bolster an outlook already preconceived. This is admittedly not a pleasant picture. Problem of how to cope with this force in [is] undoubtedly greatest task our diplomacy has ever faced and probably greatest it will ever have to face. It should be point of departure from which our political general staff work at present juncture should proceed. It should be approached with same thoroughness and care as solution of major strategic problem in war, and if necessary, with no smaller outlay in planning effort. I cannot attempt to suggest all answers here. But I would like to record my conviction that problem is within our power to solve--and that without recourse to any general military conflict.. And in support of this conviction there are certain observations of a more encouraging nature I should like to make:

(1) Soviet power, unlike that of Hitlerite Germany, is neither schematic nor adventunstic. It does not work by fixed plans. It does not take unnecessary risks. Impervious to logic of reason, and it is highly sensitive to logic of force. For this reason it can easily withdraw--and usually does when strong resistance is encountered at any point. Thus, if the adversary has sufficient force and makes clear his readiness to use it, he rarely has to do so. If situations are properly handled there need be no prestige-engaging showdowns.

(2) Gauged against Western World as a whole, Soviets are still by far the weaker force. Thus, their success will really depend on degree of cohesion, firmness and vigor which Western World can muster. And this is factor which it is within our power to influence.

(3) Success of Soviet system, as form of internal power, is not yet finally proven. It has yet to be demonstrated that it can survive supreme test of successive transfer of power from one individual or group to another. Lenin's death was first such transfer, and its effects wracked Soviet state for 15 years. After Stalin's death or retirement will be second. But even this will not be final test. Soviet internal system will now be subjected, by virtue of recent territorial expansions, to series of additional strains which once proved severe tax on Tsardom. We here are convinced that never since termination of civil war have mass of Russian people been emotionally farther removed from doctrines of Communist Party than they are today. In Russia, party has now become a great and--for the moment--highly successful apparatus of dictatorial administration, but it has ceased to be a source of emotional inspiration. Thus, internal soundness and permanence of movement need not yet be regarded as assured.

(4) All Soviet propaganda beyond Soviet security sphere is basically negative and destructive. It should therefore be relatively easy to combat it by any intelligent and really constructive program.

For those reasons I think we may approach calmly and with good heart problem of how to deal with Russia. As to how this approach should be made, I only wish to advance, by way of conclusion, following comments:

(1) Our first step must be to apprehend, and recognize for what it is, the nature of the movement with which we are dealing. We must study it with same courage, detachment, objectivity, and same determination not to be emotionally provoked or unseated by it, with which doctor studies unruly and unreasonable individual.

(2) We must see that our public is educated to realities of Russian situation. I cannot over-emphasize importance of this. Press cannot do this alone. It must be done mainly by Government, which is necessarily more experienced and better informed on practical problems involved. In this we need not be deterred by [ugliness?] of picture. I am convinced that there would be far less hysterical anti-Sovietism in our country today if realities of this situation were better understood by our people. There is nothing as dangerous or as terrifying as the unknown. It may also be argued that to reveal more information on our difficulties with Russia would reflect unfavorably on Russian-American relations. I feel that if there is any real risk here involved, it is one which we should have courage to face, and sooner the better. But I cannot see what we would be risking. Our stake in this country, even coming on heels of tremendous demonstrations of our friendship for Russian people, is remarkably small. We have here no investments to guard, no actual trade to lose, virtually no citizens to protect, few cultural contacts to preserve. Our only stake lies in what we hope rather than what we have; and I am convinced we have better chance of realizing those hopes if our public is enlightened and if our dealings with Russians are placed entirely on realistic and matter-of-fact basis.

(3) Much depends on health and vigor of our own society. World communism is like malignant parasite which feeds only on diseased tissue. This is point at which domestic and foreign policies meets Every courageous and incisive measure to solve internal problems of our own society, to improve self-confidence, discipline, morale and community spirit of our own people, is a diplomatic victory over Moscow worth a thousand diplomatic notes and joint communiqués. If we cannot abandon fatalism and indifference in face of deficiencies of our own society, Moscow will profit--Moscow cannot help profiting by them in its foreign policies.

(4) We must formulate and put forward for other nations a much more positive and constructive picture of sort of world we would like to see than we have put forward in past. It is not enough to urge people to develop political processes similar to our own. Many foreign peoples, in Europe at least, are tired and frightened by experiences of past, and are less interested in abstract freedom than in security. They are seeking guidance rather than responsibilities. We should be better able than Russians to give them this. And unless we do, Russians certainly will.

(5) Finally we must have courage and self-confidence to cling to our own methods and conceptions of human society. After Al, the greatest danger that can befall us in coping with this problem of Soviet communism, is that we shall allow ourselves to become like those with whom we are coping.

KENNAN

800.00B International Red Day/2 - 2546: Airgram

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Wednesday, February 20, 1946. Plans to transfer power in India.