Thursday, June 19, 2025

Wars and Rumors of War, 2025. Part 4. The GBU-57A/B MOP Edition.

You will hear of wars and rumors of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed. Such things must happen, but the end is still to come. Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom.
Matthew, Chapter 24.


GBU-57A/B MOP
You can't say civilization don't advance... in every war they kill you in a new way. 
Will Rogers.
We will measure our success not only by the battles we win, but also by the wars that we end, and perhaps most importantly, the wars we never get into.
Donald Trump.

We find ourselves with another predictive entry.

Yesterday, June 17, was an extremely odd day.  Trump left the G7 meeting austensibly to deal with the war between Israel and Iran, but notably before the topic of the Russian invasion of Ukraine came up.

Trump, of course, had promised to end the war between Ukraine and Russia upon being nominated to the Oval Office.

He lied.

Since that time, he's been an enthusiastic supporter if Israel's ongoing war in Gaza and, as of yesterday, was indicating that the US saved the life of Iran's Supreme Leader, but the US may decide to kill the de facto Iranian head of state itself, something that nations generally do not do and which frankly would make Trump fair game in the eyes of Iranian radicals.  Trump might finally get a first hand taste of being the enemy the way he did not in the 1960s.

Threatening to murder, and that's exactly what it would be, the head of a state of a foreign country is moronic, as well as deeply immoral.

It appears that Mike Huckabee, whom Trump stupidly appointed as the American Ambassador to Israel, has Trump's ear, which is dangerous.  Huckabee sent a weird missive to Trump yesterday or the day before which Trump praised and reposted.  Huckabee is a Christian Zionist/Millennialist Restorationist who seeks to help bring about the Second Coming by advancing the cause of Israel.  A minority branch of Protestantism, which itself is a minority of Christians, there's likely nothing Israel could do that Huckabee won't back. He's basically backing the United States entering the war against Iran.

The reason that Israel would want that to occur is depicted above.  Israel is attempting to end the Iranian nuclear program, and perhaps achieve much more, from the air.  By now it's probably clear that it can't do that without use of a GBU-57A/B MOP, assuming that could even do it.  The GBU-57A/B MOP is the worlds' largest deep penetration bunker buster bomb, and it might, but only might, be able to destroy Iran's underground nuclear facilities.

Only one airplane in the world right now can carry the GBU-57A/B MOP, that being the B-2 bomber.  The B-52 can also carry then, but none are currently set up to do so. The B-2 can carry two.

And it's highly probable that they've asked the US to deploy them for this purpose.

And fairly probable the US will do so.

June 18, 2025

Israel v. Iran
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — Israel claimed Tuesday to have killed a top Iranian general as it traded more strikes with its longtime foe, and U.S. President Donald Trump warned residents of Tehran to evacuate while demanding that Iran surrender without conditions.
From the AP.

On the above, there's a pretty good chance that Trump feels that acting like he's going to attack Iran is going to convince Iran to enter some sort of bargain.  Iran is pretty hard to intimidate.

Also, there's a good chance that Trump will TACO the moment and suddenly declare he achieved something, once he thinks over the consequences of attacking Iran, or once clearer heads than Mike Huckabee's get to him.  Not that I want him to attack Iran.  I think that would be stupid.

If the latter occurs, Trump's loyal fans will claim that he was the master negotiator, but I doubt Israel will quit pounding Iran, and that Iran will quit responding.  Israel has the upper hand right now, but it's extremely difficult to win a war only through the air, and Israel has no ability to deploy ground forces against Iran. For that matter, Iran's neighbors likely wouldn't tolerate that.  It's an impossibility, however.  Air wars degrade over time as targets reduce or become less vulnerable, and Israel is unlikely to be able to protect itself from missile strikes indefinitely.

June 19, 2025

Israel v. Iran

Iran hit Israel with a ballistic missile carrying a cluster munition warhead hitting, amongst other things the Soroka Medical Center in Be’er Sheva.

Donald Trump is weirdly claiming that he'll take two weeks to decide if the US will enter the war, which a competent leader would not announce, even if contemplating it.

Legally entering the war would require a Declaration of War, which won't be occurring and a bare minimum the War Powers Act should come into play.

Going Feral: Lubnau and Ryan Zinke on public lands.

Going Feral: Ryan Zinke on public lands.

Tom Lubnau: Sale Of Our Public Lands Brings More Questions Than Answers

 

Tom Lubnau: Sale Of Our Public Lands Brings More Questions Than Answers

Ryan Zinke on public lands.

I don’t yield to pressure only higher principle.  I have said from day one I would not support a bill that sells public lands. I am still a no on the senate reconciliation bill that sells public lands. We did our job in the House. Let’s get it finished.

Ryan Zinke

Zinke's listening to his state. Why isn't Wyoming's delegation doing the same?

Stifling writers.

Everywhere I go I'm asked if I think the university stifles writers. My opinion is that they don't stifle enough of them. There's many a best-seller that could have been prevented by a good teacher.

Flannery O'Connor

Tuesday, June 19, 1945. Eisenhower's parade.

The U.S. Army took IIigan in the Philippines.

343 Japanese troops surrendered on Okinawa.

"Pfc. Alden A. Fisher, Morganton, Ga., fires a bazooka. Pfc. William Miller, Oceanside, Long Island, is the loader. They are firing at a Japanese cave on Okinawa. 19 June, 1945. 77th Infantry Division Photographer: LaGrange."

Troops of the British Commonwealth brought the war back to Thailand, invading it from Burma.

King Leopold III of Belgium refused to abdicate.

The United Nations, meeting in San Francisco, denied Francoist Spain admission to the body.

Gen. Eisenhower received a ticker tape parade in New York City which 4,000,000 people turned out to view.

French politician Marcel Déat, in hiding in Italy, was sentenced to death in absentia for collaborating with the enemy.  He would not be captured and died in Italy in 1955.

Last edition:

Monday, June 18, 1945. The death of Gen. Simon Bolivar Buckner, Jr.

Saturday, June 19, 1915. Carranza flees, Arizona launched, a flag for Iceland.

The USS Arizona was launched.


The press was reporting that Carranza was in retreat, which was correct.




And the Governor of Senora was intercepting Americans entering Mexico.

The Danish monarchy decreed that Iceland could have its own flag.


Iceland remained a Danish possession, and the Nordic island's relationship with Denmark was an odd, and often strained, one.

Automobile racing was spreading in popularity.


It was a Saturday.




Last edition:

Sunday, June 19, 1910. The first Father's Day.

Today In Wyoming's History: June 191910    Father's Day was celebrated for the first time, in Spokane, Wash.

Last edition:


Tuesday, June 19, 1900. China asks legations to leave.

The Chinese government delivered an ultimatum in response to the attack on the Taku Forts to eleven ambassadors in the legation quarter demanding  that all foreign residents, including diplomats, missionaries and their families leave Beijing by 4pm the following day.  The demand accompanied a promise to provide troops for a safe exit.

Last edition:

Monday, June 18, 1900. The Taku Forts surrender.

Tucker Carlson clashes with Ted Cruz over Iran | REUTERS


Ted Cruz is one of the politicians I mist dislike as a politician.  And Tucker Carlson one of the right wing pundits I most dislike.

So seeing them go at each other is quite a surprise.  Carlson really went after Cruz on Cruz's position on Iran.

The mystery of military anxiety will remain unsolved #military #veteran ...

Wednesday, June 18, 2025

Wyoming's broken politics.

Former Wyoming Governor Francis E. Warren, and sitting Senator at the time of the Johnson County War, F. E. Warren was a Republican Senator who knew how to cover his ass, whic his why he was able to survive the scandal of Republican support for the invasion of Johnson and Natrona Counties.  That scandal took down the GOP in the state for a period of time.

Back at least a decade ago I had a conversation with a high ranking member of the Wyoming Republican Party about some really odd going ons down at Cheyenne.  He stated, broken hearted, that Wyoming politicians had been "bought".

That's a pretty broad accusation. What he likely really meant is that right about that time the state started to be flooded by out of state political money, and it often went right into the most radical right wing politicians.  Wealthy people moving into the state brought their politics with them, and in a few cases if was radically far right.  That gave us, for example, the absurd example of Foster Friess and his goofball Dukes of Hazzard campaign for governor.

It also gave us, however, some people who moved in specifically for political reason. Chuck Gray, the family money backed son of a wealthy Republican, who was born in California and went to school at Wharton, like Trump, moved into the state and ran for office nearly immediately.  Living in a district in which the long time occupant of a legislative seat died, he managed to leverage a position at his father's radio station into a  legislative seat, and then captured the office of the Secretary of State in spite of having very little connection with the state in which he sits.  He's been a constant stream of Trump like invective.  His seat was taken over by Jeanette Ward, who was if anything even further to the far right. Ward, from Illinois, came to Wyoming as a "political refugee" and had been here so briefly that she barely qualified for her seat when she ran.  Her politics were too far to the right for even that district, which booted her after one embarrassing term in Cheyenne where she espoused far right populist, far right Evangelical, positions.

The state GOP was likewise taken over by far right populists, about whom we hear less now, but who went to war with the traditional GOP. They were largely successful, duping, although I expect only temporarily, a large number of Wyoming voters into believing the sh** sandwiches which Trump and his allies serve up as alleged filet mignon.

That they can be duped is because the state is in economic distress, and regular people don't know what to do about it.  Global Warming is real, not some sort of fib, and long term coal and oil are doomed.  A large number of workers who relocated form Texas and Oklahoma, and the like, are fairly poorly educated on top of it and are relatively easy to lead by being told that what they want to be true, is true.  The agricultural sector, which has deeply ingrained conservative tendencies, is rolling over from a generation that basically stopped its education at high school to one which is now college educated, but in the meantime the older agriculturalist who control the operations deeply want to believe that operations can be run the way they were in the 1970s, and that threats they need to deal with, which include Global Warming and the buying power of the Super Rich, really don't.

Basically, Wyoming's current politics can be explained by people voting for what they want to believe, over reality.  Coal and oil are never going way.  You'll always be able to get a job in the extractive industries, or as a truck driver, with a high school diploma, or even without one.  There are no deep existential problems with the economy here that aren't the result of a conspiracy against us.

It can't be us.

But it can be.

And right now, it is.

A further part of the problem, however, is that the Democratic Party in the state has displayed a level of intellectual denseness that would suck light out of a black hole  It's stunning.

It wasn't all that time that Wyoming had a viable Democratic Party that could serious contend for statewide and national seats.  That started to change, however, during the Clinton Administration for reasons that are now hard to discern, although the decline of unionized mining jobs in Wyoming are likely part of that problem.  Even after that, however, we had a Democratic Governor.

As the Democratic Party in the state declined it took on a lot of the same trend lines that the national Democratic Party did, which has helped explain the rise of Trump.  In a state that was both sort of conservative and sort of libertarian, they became goofball left wing as an organization, although not all of their candidates reflected that.  Over time, the Democrats never saw a fetus in the womb that they didn't' want to kill, or a brand new perversion that they didn't want to celebrate.  A party which at one time was lead by burly miners or grumpy rural lawyers is now lead by a guy who has the appearance of a bow tie wearing nerd.

Recent promo photograph of the Democratic Party.  This is a far cry from a party that once put a World War Two Marine Corps Raider in the Governor's office, a World War Two infantryman in Congress and a gruff prosecutor into office.  Marine Corps Raider gets votes, and inspires confidence.  Bow Tie Wearing Doofus does not.  And is that buffalo smiling?

Hypocritical or not, Wyomingites aren't going to vote for a party that they associate with men in tutus and that it's all okay.  Men might go into the voting booth with their third wife at home, before they go to see their mistress, but they're going to regard that as contrary to the moral law.  Interestingly, if politics returned to the "I don't care what you do, just leave me alone" ethos it once had, they'd be fine with that.  Indeed, that's how their living their private lives already.

In fairness, however, the last two chairmen of the Wyoming GOP don't win high marks either.  The current one, Bryan Miller, is another of the "I spent my life in the military and hate the government" Republicans.  After decades of drawing on the government tit, they claim to know what's wrong in a state where most people don't, or at least not openly.

We may, just might, be at a turning point, however.

We are certainly at a point where Republican office holders ignoring the real views of the state can be exploited.

Dr. John Barrasso.  He went from orthopedic surgeon to the Senate, having been appointed by the Legislature.  At age 72, he's now the Senate Whip and doesn't appear to have any desire to retire any time soon.

Wyomingites are overwhelmingly opposed to public lands being transferred out of government control.  In spite of that, Dr. John Barrasso supported Federal lands being transferred to the states in the 2016 GOP platform. That didn't happen in part because Eric Trump is a hunter.  Barrasso darned well knew that Wyomingites didn't support that, but somebody he was listening to did, as he supported it against the wishes of his constituents.

72 year old Barrasso is in that class of politicians who desperately seem to want to hang on to their jobs in spite of their advancing old age.  At 72 he ought to be retired, but he hung on and is how the Senate Whip.  Once a Republican moderate, he became a Trumpite by necessity.  That means he could become a moderate again, and if the political winds shifted, he would.  

This issue is one in which he's hearing from hundreds of Wyomingites per day.  He's heard from me twice.  

He hasn't responded, but he hasn't said what his position is.

If the proposals to transfer public lands advance, he ought to be sent packing.

Cynthia Lummis.  Once the State Treasurer, she entered the U.S. House in 2009, but stepped down in 2017 to take care of her dying husband, a very admirable thing to do.

70 year old Cynthia Lummis is likewise in the age group that ought to be out of politics.  She actually returned to it, however, to take her current Senate seat.  Lummis condescendingly stated that all Federal lands didn't need to remain in Federal lands forever, which is intellectually the same as maintaining that all privately held lands don't either, something she'd be in horror about as she comes from a ranching family.  She's also shown an ability to tack into the wind, however, as she was once a Trump opponent and now is a Trump backer.

Lummis is making sort of a big deal right now about her cryptocurrency bill which just passed the Senate, and nickname Crypto Queen she's been tagged with. The truth is, however, that the overwhelming majority of  Wyomingites don't give a rusty rats ass about this topic and aren't going to remember diddly squat about this bill.  It'll soon be a "what?" sort of topic.

The public lands vote, however won't be.

Harriet Hageman. She ran an unsuccessful campaign for Governor against Mark Gordon and then, when Liz Cheney ran into trouble, ran against he rand obtained her seat.

Harriet Hageman is on her first time as Congresswoman, having been able to take advantage of her former friend Liz Cheney's downfall.  Hageman is the only one of Wyoming's Washington delegation who probably comes by her public land vote, which was in favor of the Federal sales bill, honestly.  Daughter of Jim Hageman, who spent 23 years in the Wyoming House of Representatives, Hageman is from a farming family from Southeastern Wyoming where there is very little public land.  Jim Hageman was one of the backers of a proposal to allow for the privatization of wildlife in Wyoming, which almost destroyed the GOP during its go around.

This issue could be a similar one.

Wyomingites should make it.

At the top of this page is a portrait of Francis E. Warren.  Warren had been territorial governor, and then the first governor, of the State of Wyoming.

I don't admire him.

But his ability to read the political winds is admirable.

The state Republican Party was complicit in the invasion as so many of those in it were connected with Republican politics.  Planned at the Cheyenne Club, people kne what was going on.  Republican Governor Amos Barber did and had arranged to activate the National Guard in order to keep it from being deployed to Central Wyoming to stop the invasion.

Barber lost his seat following the event.

The Republicans lost the legislature.

Warren kept his.

There's a lesson there for those currently in office. . . and those who wish to be.

Amos W. Barber.  A dentist by profession, like Barrasso is a surgeon by profession, he disgraced himself with his support of the invaders in the Johnson County War and then thereafter by attempting to retain his office after he was defeated for reelection.  He became Wyoming Secretary of State immediately after that, as that was his prior office at the time of Warren's elevation to the Senate, and then returned to his dental practice.  Oddly, like the current occupant of the Secretary of State's chair, he was a graduate of the University of Pennsylvania.

We are all standing on stolen land

We are all standing on stolen land: The arc of human history on our planet has been one of conquest, columnist Rod Miller opines.

Wyoming worker exodus threatens economic decline, business council says

Wyoming worker exodus threatens economic decline, business council says: The state agency proposes "major" reforms to a business loan program, and a broader discussion on Wyoming's economic future.

Monday, June 18, 1945. The death of Gen. Simon Bolivar Buckner, Jr.


Gen. Simon Bolivar Buckner, Jr. was killed by Japanese artillery on Okinawa.  He was 58 years old, making him one of the older U.S. Generals of the Second World War.

The artillery projectile was of the flat shooting rifle type, and the projectile had actually ricocheted off of a coral reef, and then hit Buckner.

Prior to World War Two, Buckner had principally been involved in the education and training of troops.  He had seen overseas duty, however, in the Philippines in 1908.

His father, the senior Simon Bolivar Buckner, had been an American Army officer during the Mexican War, and a Confederate general during the Civil war.

Prime Minister Kantarō Suzuki informed the Japanese Supreme Council of Emperor Hirohito's intention to seek peace with the Allies as soon as possible.

The USS Bonefish was sunk in Toyama Bay.

The Chinese Army took Wenchow.

The Soviets put sixteen officers of the Polish Home Army on trial for fighting the Soviets.


William Joyce, Lord Haw Haw, was put on trial for treason.

The British Army began demobilizing.

Last edition:

Thursday, June 18, 1925. Death of Robert La Follette.

"Battling Bob" La Follette, Socialist Senator from Wisconsin, died at age 70.  He'd been ill since 1923.

The German  Reichsgericht, struck down a law confiscating of all the demesne lands of the Dukes of Saxe-Coburg and Gotha to widespread public dissatisfaction.

Last edition:

Wednesday, June 17, 1925. The Geneva Protocol.


Friday, June 18, 1915. Wanted, Horses. War expands in Mexico.

 


The prices were good too.

The Allies ceased offensive operations in the Battle of Artois.

Emiliano Zapata orders all of his senior officers to report for duty.

There were now effectively three armies in the field. One under Villa, which was contesting Obregon, who was allied to Carranza.  A second Carranza army under Pablo Gonzáles Garza that had just been formed by Carranza.  And, finally, the Zapatistas.  None of the leaders of these armies was the de jure head of the Mexican state.

The Motion Picture Directors Association was formed in Los Angeles.

Last edition:

Thursday, June 17, 1915. Navy to Mexico, Bryan says chillax on war prep, French try to take Vimy Ridge.

Saturday, June 18, 1910. Welcoming home TR.

Theodore Roosevelt was given a tape parade as a welcome back from his post Presidential trip to Africa and Europe.

Last edition:

Friday, June 17, 1910. Creation of the U.S. Lighthouse Service.

Monday, June 18, 1900. The Taku Forts surrender.


The Taku Forts surrendered after a sixteen hour bombardment by ships of the Eight Nation Alliance. Chinse casualties were very heavy.  One Russian ship was sunk in the engagement.  Four Chinese destroyers were captured, and recommissioned in Western navies.

Last edition:

Sunday, June 17, 1900. Invading China, drafting Roosevelt.

Fort Hood is Fort Hood Again

Why the Marine Corps should adopt the M10 Booker

 

Why the Marine Corps should adopt the M10 Booker

Tuesday, June 17, 2025

Wars and Rumors of War, 2025. Part 3. The peace didn't break out on day one edition.

You will hear of wars and rumors of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed. Such things must happen, but the end is still to come. Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom.

Matthew, Chapter 24.


In peace, sons bury their fathers. In war, fathers bury their sons. 

Herodotus.

May 12, 2025

Turkey v. The Kurds.

The Kurdistan Workers’ Party, the PPK, announced that it will disband and disarm after forty years of conflict.

May 26, 2025

Russo Ukrainian War

Trump posted the following yesterday:

I’ve always had a very good relationship with Vladimir Putin of Russia, but something has happened to him. He has gone absolutely CRAZY! He is needlessly killing a lot of people, and I’m not just talking about soldiers. Missiles and drones are being shot into Cities in Ukraine, for no reason whatsoever. I’ve always said that he wants ALL of Ukraine, not just a piece of it, and maybe that’s proving to be right, but if he does, it will lead to the downfall of Russia! Likewise, President Zelenskyy is doing his Country no favors by talking the way he does. Everything out of his mouth causes problems, I don’t like it, and it better stop. This is a War that would never have started if I were President. This is Zelenskyy’s, Putin’s, and Biden’s War, not “Trump’s,” I am only helping to put out the big and ugly fires, that have been started through Gross Incompetence and Hatred.

More and more it's impossible not simply regard Trump as stupid.

June 1, 2025

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukraine pulled off a sort of scaled down Pearl Harbor, or Battle of Taranto, or perhaps attack on Port Arthur today/yesterday by mounting a major drone attack on Russia air assets inside of  Russia itself.

The drones were  smuggled into Russia and launched from cabin launchers in what will go down as one of the most successful clandestine internal actions of all time.  At least 40 Russian aircraft were destroyed on the ground.

June 3, 2025

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukraine's security service, the SBU, struck the Crimean Bridge with underwater explosives, damaging the structure.

June 8, 2025

US Civil Unrest

Donald Trump has federalized some units of the California National Guard and ordered them to Los Angeles in response to violent immigration protests there.

A President federalizing a Guard unit ab initio like this is very unusual.

June 9, 2025

US Civil Unrest

Absolutely nuts:

Press Release | June 9, 2025

USNORTHCOM statement on additional military personnel in the Los Angeles Area

U.S. Northern Command Public Affairs

PETERSON SPACE FORCE BASE, Colo. – U.S. Northern Command has activated the Marine infantry battalion that was placed in an alert status over the weekend. Approximately 700 Marines with 2nd Battalion, 7th Marines, 1st Marine Division will seamlessly integrate with the Title 10 forces under Task Force 51 who are protecting federal personnel and federal property in the greater Los Angeles area. 

The activation of the Marines is intended to provide Task Force 51 with adequate numbers of forces to provide continuous coverage of the area in support of the lead federal agency. 

Task Force 51 is U.S. Army North’s Contingency Command Post, which provides a rapidly deployable capability to partner with civil authorities and DoD entities in response to a Homeland Defense and Homeland Security Operations. It is commanded by Maj. Gen. Scott M. Sherman.  

Task Force 51 is comprised of approximately 2,100 National Guard soldiers in a Title 10 status and 700 active-duty Marines. Task Force 51 forces have been trained in de-escalation, crowd control, and standing rules for the use of force. 

 June 10, 2025

US Civil Unrest

Trump is doubling the size of the California National Guard deployment to Los Angeles.

June 11, 2025

US Civil Unrest

Californian National Guardsmen found their role expanded to protecting immigration agents as they made arrests in Los Angeles.

My guess is that this is going to be a long deployment, or that the Courts will find the this use illegal rapidly.

The deployment of military forces to California is costing the US $134,000,000.

Wyoming's Congressman predictably came down on the side of Donald Trump:

Hageman Blasts Newsom For Putting ‘Rioters Over The Side Of Law And Order’

Texas, not the United States, has deployed the Texas Army National Guard to Austin in advance of anticipated ICE raids there.

June 13, 2025

Israel v. Iran

Israel launched what are being termed "massive" air attacks against Iran's nuclear program and military command structure.  Initial reports are that the raid were highly successful.

US Civil Unrest

U.S. District Judge Charles Breyer ruled the Trump's direct Guard deployment was illegal, violating the Tenth Amendment and exceeding Trump’s statutory authority.  An appeals court stayed enforcement of the order upon review.

cont:

Israel v. Iran

The Israeli attack expanded today to nuclear installations.  Operation Rising Lion also took out a number of senior Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps figures.

Iran is presently attempting to retaliate with missles.

June 14, 2025

US Civil Unrest

The Governor of Missouri activated his state's National Guard in advance of today's protests.

June 17, 2025

Israel v. Iran


Cont:


"We"?

"Sky trackers"?

"Stuff"?

Cont:  



Apparently Trump has demanded Iran's "unconditional surrender".