We're updating our trailing election thread at this point simply because Part 9 of it grew so long it was getting impossible to update. Having said that, this is a good place to up it as the election is not only entering its final phase. . . voting is already going on, but with the nomination of a replacement Supreme Court justice for the late Ruth Bader Ginsburg, the election has taken on a new character in its final month. We addressed that a bit in Part 9.
At this point, we hardly need to repeat who is going to be on the ballot, but for those suddenly tuning it, things are as follows.
For the office of President and Vice President.
Republicans
Donald Trump
Mike Pence
Democrats
Joe Biden
Kamala Harris.
Third party and independents, you'll have to go to the earlier posts, listed below.
US Senate for Wyoming
Republicans
Cynthia Lummis
Democrats
Marev Ben David
Third party and independents, you'll have to go to the earlier posts, listed below.
US House of Representatives for Wyoming
Republicans
Liz Cheney
Democrats
Lynette Grey Bull
Third party and independents, you'll have to go to the earlier posts, listed below.
Well, buckle up. It promises to be a rocky ride.
This, rather obviously, is going to be a major campaign topic going forward and, given its probable tone, it will push some undecideds one way or another. Indeed, given its probable tone it will likely push some Catholic voters who were likely to vote for Biden/Harris to Trump/Pence as moral issues will now be in the forefront and they're faith his going to be repeatedly criticized by pundits professional and amature.
September 29, 2020
The first Presidential debate shall occur tonight.
By and large it looks as if the possibility of this debate impacting the election is very small. Most voters have their minds made up, but there have been recent events impacting the election. Be that as it may, Trump is so far behind in most polls that his chances of prevailing in November are now small.
The lead up to the debates has been odd and in some ways defining of Trump's problems in the election. Rather than noting his best known accomplishment, the state of the economy prior to the pandemic, he's been casting doubt on Biden's mental acuity and suggesting Biden should take a drug tests, which gives the contest a sort of insult character unusual to American public politics. Back channel insults and insults by supporters aren't unusual, but not public ones. Indeed, John McCain when running famously rebuked a supporter in a public debate who insulted Barack Obama. Trump's willingness to do the opposite has long been a prominent personal characteristic but it's also what has lead to many in the GOP and who are independant to abandon him and re emphasizing it at this point is very unlikely to help him.
Indeed, analysts now predict there's a 60% to 70% chance that the Senate will flip to Democratic control this year, a disaster for the GOP as it will give both houses to the Democrats. Listening to the pollster analysis on This Week shows that this is actually quite complicated as the Democrats are going to lose some seats as well as the GOP, so they number they need to gain is higher than it would at first seem, but it appears likely they will accomplish that.
Pennsylvania Republicans, anticipating vote counting problems, have taken an issue surrounding them to the United States Supreme Court. Amy Howe reports:
On an odd note, both Presidential candidates have been nominated for Nobel Peace Prizes.
Nominating a non sitting candidate for the prize is really fairly silly. Trump can point to his recent diplomatic success in the Middle East, but he's very unlikely to win the prize.
Democratic candidates have brought in $300,000,000 since the death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg. Usually court nominees do not figure to any great degree with the Democratic electorate but they do with the Republican electorate. This year is proving to be an exception, at least in donations, which may be at least partially attributable to Ginsburg's surprising star status as well as the widely held erroneous belief that conservative justices are going to "take away rights", when in fact at most what they'd generally cause to happen is to have issues return to state legislatures where the topic isn't addressed by the Constitution. Republicans have done a very poor job of countering this erroneous assumption, which is inexplicable as when explained in those terms leads most people supporting local decisions over court imposed ones, although that view isn't universal.
In other news, Trump's 2016 income taxes have been in the news as they were broken by The New York Times. They show, according to reports, that Trump's heavily leveraged, although what that really means in real terms would require quite a bit of analysis.
Locally, a group of Republicans from the GOP right have issued a pledge of ten points they've all signed and there's now a movement to try to have other Wyoming Republicans sign the same.
In New York City the front runner for the Mayor's office, leftwing radical DeBlasio has been running behind, dropped out of the race for personal mental health concerns. At the same time, New York's large police union demanded that DeBlasio resign.
September 30, 2020
News anchor Lester Holt summed up the debate as "a low point in American political discourse". Other pundits used terms such as "dumpster fire". Perhaps the kindest thing that could be said about it is that it didn't seem to resemble a debate at all, but rather an rambling argument. One Catholic Twitter poster, a religious friar, characterized it as a pointless argument between "two men of a certain age".
At least on my Twitter feed, regret about the nature of the debate, ranging from comments of highly respected political writers to the proverbial common man largely reacted in the same way. A few fairly partisan commenters, in both categories, took the opposite approach, but by and large viewers were disappointed in what they saw, some extremely so. Fox News' Chris Wallace took criticism for letting the debate degrade into the candidates talking over each other, but the criticism is misplaced; absent a structural change that would allow the moderator to shut off audio to the interrupting candidate there isn't anything they can really do.
People generally ask who "won" the debate. In this case, perhaps the most telling comments I saw were from those wondering why we have fallen to these two choices. Of course, we haven't. We've limited ourselves to them. At this point in time the American Solidarity Party, the Green Party, and the Libertarian Party, to name just a few, are all in the race. Had every candidate been there, including the third parties, neither of the two "main candidates" would have fared well. Part of the problem of American politics is that the country steadfastly limits itself to two parties whom the majority of Americans don't fit easily into.
High points, if we can call them that, in that Biden refused not to commit to packing the court and Trump refusing to concede on anything, both of which would have cost them some votes if there are very many people left uncommitted.
A suggestion has been made that Biden should skip the last two scheduled debates as pointless, but it has been pointed out that would make him look weak. The next debate is a "town hall" style debate with direct questions from the audience in which the candidates will have to present differently or risk really cementing those few who remain uncommitted. The risk is higher for President Trump, who is behind in the polls, than it is for Biden, who is ahead, and generally most observers felt that Trump's interruptions were more egregious than Biden's.
The Tribune today has two editorial pieces on developments in the state's GOP, with one by a former officer of the state's GOP who has termed the right wing elements of the party in the state as members of the alt-right, and has criticized its development. One of the things he notes is that the state's isolation has fostered an atmosphere of essentially listening only to ourselves.
This thought has occured to me recently as well, particularly as signs and flags started to spring up around the community and political discourse became more loud as the election proceeds. It's worrying as there not only seems to be some really strident views being proclaimed, which everyone has a right of course to do, but they come locally really only from one camp and many of those in it seem convinced of an inevitable victory next month. I've discounted the suggestions coming from the Trump camp that the results of the election might not be known for "months" and I still do. I think the results will be known much quicker than most people seem to suspect. At this point it seems pretty clear what those results will be in regard to the Presidential election. What is less clear is what the national results will be in regard to Senate races.
At any rate, the atmosphere that's being created strikes me as one that is going to cause some pockets in the country to be hard to accept and I fear that many in the state will fit into that category, based on their statements. At some point every American gets Presidential election results that are disappointing to them, sometimes deeply disappointing, but you accept that it occured, move on, and work in some fashion for the future. Not since 1860 has there been an election which a large number in the country refused to accept. Important in that 1860 refusal was the existence of leadership that refused to accept it. As we head towards the election, it's important that leadership exist again as it seems that some are being primed, accidentally perhaps, not to accept it.
If results go really badly for the GOP in this race, and they might, the reverberations locally will be "interesting" to observe, to say the least. A Democratic Oval office and Democratic Senate would join an already Democratic House and the state would be living with a lot of changes that its not mentally prepared to accept. Part of the adjusting of that probably needs to start now.
October 1, 2020
The Natrona County GOP retained a law firm in Cheyenne to challenge changes to the bylaws that were made during the recent Republican convention. While the article on the matter in the press was unclear, it seems to be the case that the county's attorney issued a demand letter to the state organization and that it will proceed with a declaratory judgment action on the issue.
With that the party's growing rift will break into the courts. The move was accordingly not universally approved of by the county GOP leadership, but it had enough support such that it seems certain that it will go forward as it also seems clear that the state organization reacted dismissively to the demand letter.
Pope Francis refused to grant Mike Pompeo an audience.
This is unusual to say the least, but it appears to be based on recent actions by Donald Trump in which he was seemed to co opt various figures and locations for campaign purposes and the Pope sought to avoid being interjected into the American election in that fashion.
Following this occurring, Pompeo criticized relations between the Vatican and China.
Of note, perhaps, while Pompeo is of near Italian ancestry, he's a member of the Evangelical Presbyterian Church. That's interesting in that Pompeo made statements upon arriving in Italy of going to his "ancestral homeland", and of course sought the Pope's audience, but Italy is a deeply Catholic country and Catholicism is strongly associated with Italians. That is no doubt not significant in this event, but it does add an interesting angle to this in some ways.
A court in Montana rejected a Trump Administration challenge to its "mostly by mail in" election plan for next month. Montana's primary was conducted entirely by mail.
Another court rebuff to the GOP can be found here, from Wisconsin: Seventh Circuit Rebuffs Appeal by Republicans, State Legislation in Wisconsin Voting Case
And another such effort can be read about here:
Pennsylvania GOP leaders ask justices to block order on counting absentee ballots after Election Day (updated)
Faced with an almost certain Presidential defeat next month, the GOP should be really careful about such ballot related litigation as its giving credence to the assertions made in The Atlantic that local GOP bodies are prepared to attempt to defeat the election results by legislating their way into the Oval Office. If that really is attempted it will not only fail, but it'll destroy the GOP for at least a decade. These early efforts make the magazines assertions, which otherwise seem wild, seem credible, particularly with the administration casting doubt well in advance on the validity of the election.
October 2, 2020
President Trump and Melania Trump have tested positive for COVID 19.
Given the chaos that characterized the last debates there's been serious discussion of changing the rules for the next one. With this latest development, it has to be the case that the status of future debates is up in the air.
Without putting too fine of a point on it, we'd also note that President Trump and former Vice President Biden are in the high risk category due to their ages. Chances are that Trump will do fine with the infection assuming that he even will exhibit symptoms. If that's the case, that will end up an odd thing they'll emphasize in the campaign, or at least his supporters will.
But it's also not impossible that he may get very ill and Vice President Pence may have to assume his duties through the election, which wouldn't be Constitutionally problematic in any sense. The real legal oddity, however, is what would occur if he has to step out of the campaign due to his health declining dramatically or, of course, if the disease proves fatal, as it certainly can.
In those circumstances there is a process to pick a new nominee. But that presupposes that the new nominees name is on the ballot. This year, due to the virus, thousands of people have already voted and of course probably every state has printed ballots.
Problematic, to say the least.
On ballots, Maine's high court refused a Republican challenge to the state's ranked choice ballots. Ranked choice voting is rare in the United States for high office. It allows the voters to pick at least a second choice if their main one fails to pass the bar.
It's actually really difficult to see how a ranked choice system would make any difference in the election this year in Maine. It really only could if there were some solid third party choices. Indeed, third parties would really benefit from a ranked choice system as it would let people be free to vote for a candidate they really prefer as a first choice, but have a second to fall back on if necessary without feeling that they were wasting their vote in their first choice.
And in another GOP court action:
More on that can be found on Howe On The Court.
Eighteen year veteran of the Legislature, GOP Treasurer Doug Chamberlain resigned as GOP Treasurer in the state in protest over the way he's been treated by party leadership aligned with the insurgent right wing in the party. As his resignation letter is public, its an indictment of the GOP's leadership in the state. He also criticized recent conduct by Republican delegates.
Mr. Chamberlain's resignation hasn't yet been acknowledged and in fact the state's GOP website still features an item honoring him.
October 3, 2020
October 6, 2020
The United States Supreme Court reinstated a South Carolina requirement that absentee ballots feature a witness signature, but held that its decision did not apply to already cast ballots that arrive within two days of the decision. The decision had no dissenters with several conservative justices noting that they would not have allowed for the exception for already cast ballots.
The Wyoming Secretary of State is reviewing the practices of Wyoming Gun Owners. The group has given negative reviews to some Wyoming political figures who are upset about it. The organization is apparently run by the Dorr brothers who are the subject of a podcast that's frequently referenced in advertisements on NPR's Politics. Fremont County legislator Eli Bebout spoke critically of the organization in the Tribune. The organization recently purchased an ad against incumbent Fremont County legislator Amber Oakley claiming she is anti gun.
October 7, 2020
The New York Times endorsed Joe Biden for President.
October 8, 2020
The Vice Presidential candidates debated last night. It was notable for neither candidate squarely answering questions. The most remarkable item may have been Kamala Harris' refusal to answer whether the Democrats would attempt to pack the Supreme Court, which was a question posed by Vice President Pence to Senator Harris.
Most observers regard Harris as having won the debate, but as noted, neither candidate tended to answer questions very squarely, or at all.
The Commission that governs Presidential debates has determined that the town hall debate shall be "remote", i.e., Zoom style.
President Trump has stated he won't participate in such a debate. Joe Biden has said that he'll be there on Zoom (or whatever it will be on).
On a minor note, in some English speaking regions the word "fracking" is equivalent to the word "f***ing", creating some confusion on the part of non petroleum savvy listeners about why Mike Pence was accusing Kamala Harris of supporting the banning of fracking.
Oops.
October 9, 2020
Wyoming Senate candidate debate:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r8DHcnwAvKw&t=7s
Wyoming House candidate debate:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lvzaXA3d_ZM
Nancy Pelosi is working on a plan to give the Democrats the majority of state delegations, by state.
If that seems like it doesn't make sense, as the Democrats already control the House, what that means is counting the delegates by state alone, with each state receiving one tally. That's because, if the Presidential race is decided by the House due to a voting crisis, that's how the vote is tallied. Right now the GOP has an edge of a single vote if they're counted in this fashion.
A political pac hired Wayne Knight to reprise his role as the nasty mailman from Seinfeld, "Newman":
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=73pilnstgt0
I generally don't post political ads here, but the Newman character was legendary. I'm not really entirely certain how the ad actually cuts, as its hostile to Trump, clearly, but pretty insulting towards postmen as well, as the Newman character always was.
October 10, 2020
Unable to agree to the conditions, the second "town hall" Presidential debate has been cancelled. At the same time, President Trump has resumed his campaign.
Embattled Republican Senator Lindsey Graham refused to the request from his opponent Jaime Harrison to take a COVID 19 test. The refusal caused a debate between the two candidates to be cancelled.
Graham is the chair of the Judiciary Committee and is set to chair its hearings on Amy Cohen Barrett next week.
October 12, 2020
Inaccurately called an endorsement, a spokesman for the Taliban expressed the organizations hope that President Trump win the upcoming election on the basis that he'll withdraw US forces from Afghanistan.
A debate is now scheduled for October 22.
October 16, 2020
"Town Hall" style meetings were held by both candidates last night. I didn't watch either.
Perhaps I should have. By all accounts Savannah Guthrie, who is a lawyer by training and who had worked in litigation prior to turning to journalism, kept a tight grip on the event and subjected the President to what amounted to cross examination. The event had low expectations associated with it prior to its occuring and President Trump referred to it as a "free hour of television" but following the event media watchers were full of praise for Guthrie and strong Trump supporters were howling that it was unfair. In contrast, there's been little discussion of the Biden town hall.
Given the news, I went back and watched a clip of Guthrie who, in my view, did a good job. I'm personally not a fan of television news anchors in general, although there are exceptions, but Guthrie showed her training and mettle by refusing to allow herself to be read and pressing on questions. Some in the media have criticized both town hall meetings, which is a bit predictable, and it's not surprising that Guthrie hasn't received universal acclimation in the media, but she's received close to that and most outside observers were surprised by how effective she proved to be in this role. As noted, some Trump supporters are outraged.
As I haven't watched any of the Biden event, I can't comment on that, but at least one media source reported that Biden fared poorly under some questions presented in his event.
The Tribune reported that Marev Ben David, the dark horse Democratic candidate taking on Cynthia Lummis, has seen a surprising late campaign surge in campaign donations. She remains far behind Lummis in that category but this is still a surprise, as noted.
Lindsey Graham has pulled ahead in polls in his race to retain his seat.
October 17, 2020
Sean Combs, known normally by his stage name "P Diddy", announced the formation of a new political part called Our Black Party. The party has registered with the FEC and has a website that has an agenda. An integral portion of its platform is that the rights of blacks have to be earned.
Combs formed the party in order to push Trump out of office, by his own acknowledgement, and it "reluctantly" has endorsed Joe Biden for the 2020 race. That puts it in the odd position of effectively doing what it is complaining about as it is widely acknowledged by close political observers that the Democratic Party largely expects blacks to vote a Democratic ticket even though,in practical terms, neither party has been particularly interested in the plight of black voters for years. But then it organized late in the day and would not have been able to do much other this particular year. It'll be interesting to see if it remains a force in the future.
October 18, 2020
Casper apparently had a Trump rally yesterday. The key note speaker was "social medial influencer" Kristopher Dreww. In addition to his speech, the event apparently featured an auto parade.
The point of a Trump rally of this type anywhere in Wyoming is frankly lost on those who aren't associated with them and viewing them from the outside. Wyoming's votes are a forgone conclusion so, unless something completely shocking is in the works, such demonstrations here are really simply cheerleading events to the committed.
Obviously, however, those involved must see it differently.
October 21, 2020
The Wyoming Secretary of State has ruled that Wyoming Gun Owners, which has been active in the state's politics as discussed above, must disclose its donors.
Sam Elliott, who is strongly associated with Western films, and who has a highly distinct voice, has provided the vocals for a Joe Biden advertisement that will air during the World Series.
I generally avoid noting here who is endorsing who in regard to the entertainment world, as I really don't think it matters at all. But I'm noting that here as Elliott has become the subject of a lot of sort of populist memes and he's accordingly inaccurately thought of as a figure of the alt right. His role here is going to ignite a Twitter storm of outrage in some camps.
October 23, 2020
The last debate before the election, now less than two weeks away, occurred last night.
This debate was much more of a normal debate than the last one. This was likely in part due to a new arrangement having been made regarding cutting the microphones of interrupting speakers and because the last debate was widely regarded as a Trump disaster that dropped his standings in the polls.
Neither candidate is a great public speaker, so there were no outstanding debate performances, but both turned in good performances in the debates. In terms of matters that stood out, President Trump was quick to point out that Vice President Biden had only recently been in office so the various ideas he proposed could have already been accomplished, to which Biden noted that he had been the Vice President, not the President. Sharp contrasts between their energy policies were also noted with Biden noting his intent to phase out fossil fuels.
November 2, 2020
This will be the last entry for this tread.
The general election will be tomorrow.
Recent entries on the topic of the 2020 General Election have been separate posts. The late stage of the election didn't see any surprises on a national level, but rather pretty vigorous campaigning, which shall continue through this day. A huge number of ballots have already been cast.
The principal national questions are several fold. The big one is whether or not Donald Trump shall secure four more years in office. Lately, he's been gaining in the polls, but his chances look doubtful.
As part of that, the second question is whether we'll know the results tomorrow night, and if not, when. A long process threatens to throw the country into chaos, and while I'll not entertain the most dire predictions that some have made, that won't be a good thing.
Finally, on the national scene, the question is also whether the GOP retains the Senate. I feel that they will at this point, but pollsters give them less than a 50% chance of that.
On the Senate, one of the more remarkable things of this election season has been the late stage campaign of Marev Ben David, who has really come on strong late. She almost certainly won't win, but Ben David and Lummis have been constant presences on local television and in the papers, something Lummis likely didn't plan for. And Ben David's campaign and presentation has been well run. It's questionable if Lummis' has been. The strong hold of the GOP on the Wyoming electorate almost certainly guaranties a Lummis victory, but Ben David has campaigned well enough that a person might be excused for entertaining the opposite possibility.
In contrast, Cheney and Grey Bull have nearly been absent from the racey. Lynette Grey Bull no doubt lacks the financial resources that Cheney has, and so Cheney hasn't had to use hers. Cheney therefore really hasn't mounted a campaign, but of note, she's distanced herself from President Trump a great deal, just as Lummis has drawn closer to him.
In state races, there's a number that may determine how much more to the right the returning 2021 legislature will be. That it will be, isn't really questioned.
An amendment to the state constitution regarding municipalities' ability to incur debt is on the ballot. In tight economic times, you'd have expected it to get more attention than it did, which is in fact nearly no attention at all.
Well, tune in on election day.
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