Sunday, February 11, 2024

Illegal Immigration. Part I. Who are they?

This past week, we published this item:

The worst immigration argument

Here we look at the topic of illegal immigration itself.

The number of illegal migrants living in the US was stable, at about 7,000,000, from 2017 to 2020. Then things began to change.  It's important to realize that, as while the situation is bad, it's not quite what it was reported to be.  It is not the case that 8,000,000 people have arrived under Biden's watch.  

It is the case that too many have.

Here are some stats on it, lifted whose sale from the Migration Policy Institute.  What does this tell us?

DemographicsEstimate% of Total
Unauthorized Population11,047,000100%
Top Countries of Birth
Mexico5,313,00048%
El Salvador741,0007%
Guatemala724,0007%
India553,0005%
Honduras490,0004%
Regions of Birth
Mexico and Central America7,381,00067%
Caribbean327,0003%
South America907,0008%
Europe/Canada/Oceania440,0004%
Asia1,697,00015%
Africa295,0003%
Years of U.S. Residence
Less than 52,370,00021%
5 to 91,744,00016%
10 to 142,132,00019%
15 to 192,368,00021%
20 or more2,433,00022%
Age
Under 16606,0005%
16 to 241,577,00014%
25 to 342,986,00027%
35 to 443,084,00028%
45 to 541,772,00016%
55 and over1,023,0009%
Gender
Female5,062,00046%
FamilyEstimate% of Total
Parental Status
Population ages 15 and older10,513,000100%
Reside with at least one U.S.-citizen child under 183,521,00033%
Reside with noncitizen children only under 18806,0008%
Reside with no children6,185,00059%
Marital Status
Population ages 15 and older10,513,000100%
Never married4,057,00039%
Married to a U.S. citizen1,314,00012%
Married to a legal permanent resident (LPR)654,0006%
Married to non-U.S. citizen/non-LPR2,822,00027%
Divorced, separated, widowed1,665,00016%
Education and LanguageEstimate% of Total
School Enrollment of Children and Youth
Population ages 3 to 17733,000100%
Enrolled651,00089%
Not enrolled83,00011%
Population ages 3 to 12381,000100%
Enrolled324,00085%
Not enrolled57,00015%
Population ages 13 to 17352,000100%
Enrolled327,00093%
Not enrolled25,0007%
Population ages 18 to 241,411,000100%
Enrolled569,00040%
Not enrolled842,00060%
Educational Attainment of Adults
Population ages 25 and older8,864,000100%
0-5 grade1,330,00015%
6-8 grade1,444,00016%
9-12 grade1,334,00015%
High school diploma or equivalent2,136,00024%
Some college or associate’s degree1,062,00012%
Bachelor’s, graduate, or professional degree1,558,00018%
English Proficiency
Population ages 5 and older10,951,000100%
Speak only English773,0007%
Speak English "very well"2,734,00025%
Speak English "well"2,450,00022%
Speak English "not well"/"not at all"4,994,00046%
Top 5 Languages Spoken at Home
Population ages 5 and older10,951,000100%
Spanish7,919,00072%
English780,0007%
Chinese377,0003%
Tagalog290,0003%
Portuguese166,0002%
WorkforceEstimate% of Total
Labor Force Participation
Civilian population ages 16 and older10,434,000100%
Employed6,829,00065%
Unemployed448,0004%
Not in the labor force3,157,00030%
Top Industries of Employment
Civilian employed population ages 16 and older6,829,000100%
Construction1,403,00021%
Accommodation and food services, arts, entertainment, and recreation1,092,00016%
Professional, scientific, management, administrative, and waste management services946,00014%
Manufacturing694,00010%
Retail trade547,0008%
EconomicsEstimate% of Total
Family Income
Below 50% of the poverty level1,344,00012%
50-99% of the poverty level1,542,00014%
100-149% of the poverty level1,824,00017%
150-199% of the poverty level1,575,00014%
At or above 200% of the poverty level4,762,00043%
Access to Health Insurance
Uninsured5,823,00053%
Home Ownership*
Homeowner3,069,00028%

 

Source: These 2019 data result from Migration Policy Institute (MPI) analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data from the pooled 2015-19 American Community Survey (ACS) and the 2008 Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP), weighted to 2019 unauthorized immigrant population estimates provided by Jennifer Van Hook of The Pennsylvania State University.

Note: For U.S. and state estimates of the unauthorized population potentially eligible for the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program, click here.

Data-related notes
* “Homeowners” are unauthorized immigrants residing in homes that are owned, not rented.

+ Includes the following Colorado counties: Adams, Broomfield, Clear Creek, Douglas, Elbert, Gilpin, and Jefferson, as well as portions of Arapahoe, Boulder, and Weld counties.

++ NECTAs refer to New England City and Town Areas, geographic entities defined by the U.S. Census Bureau for use as alternatives to counties in the six-state New England region.

Estimate for China includes Hong Kong but excludes Taiwan; estimate for Korea includes South Korea and North Korea.

“School Enrollment of Children and Youth” refers to unauthorized immigrants who reported attending school or college at any time in the three months prior to the survey.

For languages, “Chinese” includes Mandarin, Cantonese, and other Chinese languages; “English” includes English, Jamaican Creole, Krio, Pidgin Krio, and other English-based Creole languages; “French” includes French, Patois, and Cajun; “Pacific Island languages” includes Ilocano, Samoan, Hawaiian, Sebuano, Chamorro, Guamanian, Marshallese, Trukese, Tongan, and other Austronesian languages, but excludes Tagalog and Filipino, which are reported separately; “Portuguese” includes Portuguese and Cape Verdean Creole; “Sub-Saharan African” includes Swahili or other Bantu languages, Mande, Fulani, Kru, and other unspecified African languages; “Tagalog” includes Tagalog and Filipino.

For industries, “Other services” are miscellaneous services, not including the following services listed separately: (1) professional, scientific, management, administrative, and waste management services; (2) educational services; (3) health and social services; and (4) accommodation and food services, arts, entertainment, and recreation.

 “-” estimates are zero, not applicable, or not displayed due to small sample size.

Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Methodology in Brief:
MPI’s method uses information from the SIPP to assign legal status to noncitizens in the ACS. In the SIPP, noncitizens report whether they currently have lawful permanent resident (LPR) status—i.e., a green card. Those without LPR status may be recent refugees, temporary visitors (e.g., international students or high-skilled H-1B workers), or unauthorized immigrants. Our method maps characteristics such as country of birth, year of U.S. entry, age, gender, and educational attainment between the two surveys, and those noncitizens in the ACS who have characteristics similar to those reporting LPR status in the SIPP are coded as LPRs in the ACS. The remaining noncitizens—who are similar in characteristics to those not reporting LPR status in the SIPP—are classified as either unauthorized or legal temporary migrants, depending on whether they meet the qualifications for H-1B and the other temporary visa classifications. Estimates of unauthorized immigrants are weighted to match control totals (benchmarks) for immigrants from a set of origin countries and world regions. These control totals are calculated by subtracting the number of legal immigrants from the total of all immigrants for each country and region that are captured in the ACS data. The number of legal immigrants is estimated by adding up all legal admissions from each country and region in every year—using Department of Homeland Security administrative data—and then reducing this number to account for deaths and emigration of legal immigrants. Finally, the unauthorized immigrant population estimates are adjusted upward slightly to account for the undercount of this population in the ACS. 

MPI’s overall method was developed in consultation with James Bachmeier of Temple University and Jennifer Van Hook of The Pennsylvania State University, Population Research Institute. For more detail on the methods, see MPI, “MPI Methodology for Assigning Legal Status to Noncitizen Respondents in U.S. Census Bureau Survey Data.” The control totals were developed by Van Hook. These estimates have the same sampling and coverag

Quite a lot, really.

For one thing, the often repeated "8,000,000 have come in", is wrong.  It's more like 3,000,000 in terms of an increase in the illegal immigrant population that was in the country from 2017 to 2020.

That figure, however, was a big increase from the 3,600,000 figure that was present in 1995.  It climbed every year from 1995 to about 2007, when it was 8,200,000, after which it fell for a while.  In 2021, it was 7,800,000.

This also demonstrates that, contrary to some recent reporting, most illegal immigrant in the US, slightly under half, are from Mexico.  This has been the case for a long time.  Recent news reports would suggest they're all Venezuelan, and perhaps this data is just a little too old to reflect a big influx of Venezuelans, but more likely, they're mostly from Mexico and parts to the immediate south of Mexico.  Indeed, this would indicate 18% are from Central America, which we can perhaps boost up to maybe something like 25% now.

India at 4% is a surprise.

Most aren't married, well over 50%.

Close to half can't speak English.

Construction is the biggest employer, at 21%.  Farm work, contrary to what some keep suggesting, doesn't even show up.  Over half are uninsured, but nearly 30% own a home.

Most of these people are economic migrants.

Hardly any are dangerous Arab terrorists, as some propaganda wishes you to believe.

They are illegal, which is illegal, and illegality breeds illegal activities.  Therefore, like it or not, these populations, like most distressed migrant populations, legal or illegal, are associated with crime, as recent Venezuelan gang activity in New York has demonstrated.  The control of dope money in Colorado should have already demonstrated that.  Sinola infiltrating American Indian reservations, which has been going on for many years, but which oddly just hit the press, is another feature of that.

For the most part, what we're seeing here is people who are in a position to pick up and move for work, are doing so. Some are merely opportunistic. Some are flat out desperate.  Very few are asylum seekers in any conventional sense.

Related Thread:

The worst immigration argument

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