The British vote to leave the European Union

 From another era, but seemingly the way a little over half the population of the United Kingdom viewed events to some exent.

Fueled at least in part by a feeling that the membership in the EU had subjected the island nation to a level of immigration from the Middle East that it could not absorb, and further stoked by long discontent with statist European EU administration that clashed with the more democratic British tradition, the British voting population voted to get out of the EU.  This was only the fourth referendum in the UK's history, one of the other four, ironically, being one in the 1970s on whether or not the UK should join.  

Opposition to leaving the European Union was the stated policy of both the Labour and the Conservative parties and so the success of the Brexit position came against the influence of Britain's oldest most established parties, showing perhaps how deep the resentment against the EU had become.  Much of the opposition platform was focused on the unknown economic impact of leaving, showing what we stated in a post yesterday is in fact, a fact; people don't focus that much on economics on these sorts of decisions, which are more about a sense of nationhood and emotion than currency.  The British basically voted to try to make sure their island nation, or nations, remained theirs rather than moving into a less certain national future.  While this seems to have come to a surprise to many, and indeed I'm surprised that Brexit won, it may reflect a rising tide of such sentiment across Europe, which now has more countries, albeit within the EU, than it did in 1990 when the Soviet Union fell. 

This has caused some speculation that Scotch seperatists might now succeed in taking Scotland out of the UK so it can get back into the EU, and even if Northern Ireland might now reunite with Ireland.  I doubt that very much and think the speculation about nationalistic Ulster particularly misplaced.  Indeed, by far the more likely, if still not likely, national implications is that forces wanting to take Germany, France or Ireland out of the EU will now have some success with their movements.  Again, I don't think that likely to occur, but then I didn't think this was likely either.

You really can't fault an independent nation for wanting to go on its own. So wise or not, a raise of the beer glass to the UK and best wishes to it.

On the implication, nobody knows what they will be other than some short term financial ups and downs which may come to nothing.  More likely is that the UK will simply quietly exist over the next several years and resume independent relations with a somewhat spiteful European Union thereafter. That will likely cause a downturn in the European economy in the short term but a rise in it in the long term as it will free the UK from some of the EU's less rational economic policies. And this might cause the EU to reconsider some of its approach to how it does things which have been heavily bureaucratic and not very democratic.

One immediate impact has been political fallout, and as part of  that Conservative British Prime Minister David Cameron, who successfully shepherded the nation through the recent referendum in Scotland about whether that nation would stay or leave the United Kingdom, resigned, or rather indicated that he will be stepping down.  Cameron has been quite unpopular recently and not all of his "conservative" position have really been that and to some extent his unpopularity may have been a partial source of the Brexit vote.  He'll be leaving in October, and indicated in his departing speech:  "A negotiation with the European Union will need to begin under a new prime minister and I think it's right that this new prime minister takes the decision about when to trigger Article 50 and start the formal and legal process of leaving the EU".  He was gracious in his departure and understandably is leaving this for the next administration to handle.  It'll be interesting to see how in fact it is handled, as the Brexit vote did not succeed by a huge margin and Parliament is not technically bound to follow it, although it seems like it will.

In regard to politicians, perhaps the oddest commentary came from Donald Trump, who is oddly enough in Scotland right now.  Most American politicians would be wise enough to shut up on events of this type, but some have seen the hard right political movements in  Europe, and this is sort of (and sort of not) in that category, as part of the same general societal movement that brought Trump into the position of GOP nominee. Trump congratulated the  Brexit vote and then noted that if the pound fell it would be good for one of his golf courses in Scotland.