November 3, 2020
Well, the day is finally here. As results come in, we'll post them here. . . with commentary of course.
Cont:
Reports on the national news this morning indicate that stores are boarding up in Denver and other cities in anticipation of riots and violence.
I've already noted my concern on how this election will be handled in some quarters here:
A sense of dread.
Apparently I'm not the only one fearing what the reaction is going to be. It's likely safe to say that if Trump is reelected, there will be violence in some left wing quarters. Trump getting reelected, however, is extraordinarily unlikely. Indeed, Colorado has one of the Senate seats that is most likely going to switch from Republican to Democrat.
The fear is there as well that strong Trump supporters are also going to react really badly, and running up to the election there's been several wild plots arising from right wing camps. Beyond that, however, there are those who are aggressively Trump and don't seem to grasp that he's almost certain to lose. While not directly connected, yesterday's disruption of a joint Natrona County/City of Casper meeting shows how badly things can go in the current climate.
Biden has campaigned on uniting the country, and that is going to have to be his first priority. His general character is conciliatory as a rule, although not always so, so he may be suited for that. His Vice President will be among the highly divisive, however, and therefore this will emphasize all the more that Biden will need to accomplish this rapidly, while he's there to do so, given the uncertainty that accompanies old age.
All this is written, of course, assuming a Biden victory, which the polls indicate to be a near certainty. Running up to the election the polls have also predicted a Democratic take over of the Senate, which we've discounted, but which late polls again show to be probable.
Would that we'd know all of this tonight, but that seems somewhat unlikely.
November 4, 2020
As of 0518 Wednesday morning, Joe Biden has secured 238 electoral votes and Donald Trump 218. 270 are needed to win. This according to NPR whose election night tallies were quicker than the commercial networks'. NPR has six states yet to come in.
Nevada is one of those states and very helpfully started to knock of further counting until Friday morning.
Thanks Nevada, you're a real model of efficiency there.
Therefore, anyhow, the winner is not yet known. Knowing the winner on the Wednesday following the Tuesday election is historically common.
Election officials taking a big two day break is something else.
Trump prematurely claimed victory last night, which he really cannot claim at this point. And Biden is in the lead. It remains my prediction that he'll win.
As my loyal readers (reader?) may recall, my last prediction before the election, and before Nevada's post election day nap, was as follows:
I think I'll declare victory in my predictions, although that may too be premature. Biden doesn't have far to go.
And the Senate race isn't known yet either. So far the Democrats have picked up a single seat. Two independents caucus with the Democrats which means, right now, the Senate is 47 to 47. Two Republican seats, Colorado's and Arizona's, flipped to the Democrats. Alabama, however, flipped to the Republicans, and in a landslide for their Republican candidate.
Any takeaways so far on the Presidential Race?
Well, one best summed up by a Washington Post headline. Trump "flabbergasted the elites".
He has.
That would include pollerstrs once again. All the numerous predictions that edged up on a Biden landslide, which we'll note we also basically predicted, were wrong. Trump has a lot more support in the country than anyone imagined, save for Trump diehards, who have to be both gloating and on the edge of their seats right now.
Locally, Cynthia Lummis one with 73% of the vote. Marev Ben David took 27%, taking the majority of the votes in Teton County, something that points out how Teton County, in lots of ways, is atypical from Wyoming. Some would say not even part of Wyoming. I thought that Ben David had a good chance of taking Fremont County, home of the Wind River Reservation, and Albany County, the home of the University of Wyoming, but this didn't occur. Still, I'd rate Ben David as having a good night. Over a quarter of Wyomingites voted against Lummis and for Ben David, which is somewhat remarkable under the circumstances. Having said that, 27% of Wyomingites voted for Joe Biden as well. 3% voted for third party Presidential candidates.
Surprisingly Elizabeth Cheney did not do as well in her race to secure reelection, although she certainly did well. She took 69% of the Wyoming vote. Her Democratic challenger Lynette Grey Bull took 25%, however, less than Ben David or Biden. Third parties took the balance in between.
The ballot initiative to remove the municipal debt limit passed, but barely, 51% to 49%.
And so we wait.
Nevada, we'll set a 9:00 wake up call for you for friday. . . no hitting snooze.
Cont:
While so far any claims that "you heard it hear first" on the results would be premature, one area where I'll note that I was accurate, but didn't expect to see it this election, is that Hispanic voters turned out in greater numbers for Trump than anticipated.
Hispanics as a group (and there's some debate now that they can really be regarded as a group), still generally vote Democratic, but that's changing quickly now, and in places where that wasn't expected.
It should have been. Hispanics are like prior immigrants. Their ethnic classification as a "race", which all such classifications being false in the first place, will be temporary as they're incorporated into the American mainstream, and its already changing. Moreover, their association with the Democratic Party has been economic. As they rise in the American economy their voting concerns will lie elsewhere, and as an ethnic group they're culturally conservative.
Yesterday NPR reporters were noting that it appeared that older African American men were also voting for Trump in unanticipated numbers, which also doesn't mean that the majority of them are. That generational cohort was definitely traditionally in a more liberal political class but it too has roots in a conservative culture that's been largely ignored.
People have long been wondering how the GOP plans to survive as a party when it has been so unattractive to ethnic minorities. Oddly, the answer may have accidentally been found. Cultural conservatism is turning out to be an attractant. It's at an early stage, but its notable that it seems to have been present in this election, at least to some extent.
On another matter, The Washington Post, whose vote tally is lower than NPR's, is predicting, through its tally page, a Trump victory. Again, I've been predicting a Biden one. I'll abstain from changing as I still think I'm correct, but this is going to be far closer than anyone would have predicted. NPR's Politics was still hinting at a Trump victory last night, albeit a close one.
Cont:
Using NPR's map, and adding up the leaning states, and throwing Alaska in for Trump, which is probable but for which there are no results yet gives Trump exactly 270 electoral votes.
Not one more, not one less.
We'll see. Of note, North Carolina will be counting its mail in votes until Friday.
Cont:
An no sooner did I type out the above than Michigan and Wisconsin's leanings changed.
If you tally it up based on leanings, and throw in Alaska, Trump will take 267. I.e., if that's correct, he's lost.
The Washington Post also changed its predictions. It has both dead even right now.
Cont:
Okay, at this point Trump has no path to victory. Biden has won.
And, yes, I'm calling this before others have, but I can do the math.
Which means my pre election prediction on the outcome of the Presidential race was correct. I'm calling it as "you heard it hear first", even though it wasn't that accurate of a prediction. Like everyone else, I didn't see it coming in this close at all.
And the fact that it is is this close means we're almost certainly in for a round of lawsuits and disputes. That won't change the results, and it won't help the nation.
Now, on other things, the final makeup of the Senate is still up in the air, but I'm predicting again it won't flip.
And to my huge surprise, four House seats have flipped to the Republicans. I don't see the House gaining a Republican majority, but I didn't see that coming either. There's still a lot of House races left to go, so how this comes out overall isn't clear. What does seem to be the case is that Trump's popularity in some states swept out Democratic Congressmen.
So, right now, we can call the Oval Office. Joe Biden is the next President.
I think the House will remain Democratic, and that's a safe bet. I think the Senate will remain republican, and McConnell and Graham retained their seats, but that isn't really a safe bet.
Cont:
So, while everyone is waiting for the official results on the national races, a few odds and ends.
The State of Utah passed a constitutional amendment providing for a state right to hunt and fish. It provides:
Article I, Section 30. [Right to hunt and fish.]
(1) The individual right of the people to hunt and to fish is a valued part of the State's heritage and shall be forever preserved for the public good.
(2) The right under Subsection (1) includes the right to use traditional methods to hunt and to fish, subject only to statute, and rules and regulations adopted as provided by statute, to:
(a) promote wildlife conservation and management;
(b) provide reasonable regulation of hunting and fishing activities; and
(c) preserve the future of hunting and fishing.
(3) Public hunting and fishing shall be the preferred means of managing and controlling wildlife.
(4) This section does not affect:
(a) the law relating to trespass or property rights;
(b) the State's sovereign authority over the State's natural resources; or
(c) the State's obligation to manage lands granted to the State under the Enabling Act.
Utah isn't the first state to pass such a law, but its interesting to note how the movement to incorporate these provisions into state constitutions has spread to the West where hunting and fishing are strongly appreciated.
Utah also amended its state constitution to remove language allowing for involuntarily servitude as punishment for a crime. This is one of those amendments that people tend to snicker at as they assume that it means more than it really does about the state passing it. It has to be kept in mind that it wasn't all that long ago that many states had chain gangs and such things, which are a species of involuntary servitude.
Five states legalized recreational marijuana, the same being Montana, Arizona, Mississippi, New Jersey and South Dakota. It's interesting to note that this means three of Wyoming's neighbors have now legalized marijuana whereas Wyoming has not, which means that law enforcement in Wyoming will be faced with additional problems as a result.
Oregon provided that its marijuana tax money should be used to fund drug treatment, which provides an interesting example of using a drug to fund treatment for problems caused by drugs.
Alaska defeated an effort to increase North Slope fuel production taxes.
Californians voted against a proposal to make some criminal sentences more strict and Oklahomans defeated a proposal to modify sentencing guidelines. Kentuckians approved a proposal for consideration of criminal victims rights. Michigan passed a proposal to require search warrants for the search of electronic data.
Cont:
Massachusetts voters rejected a ballot initiative to bring in ranked choice voting.
The Trump campaign has asked for a recount in Wisconsin.
Cont:
So, by close of business, election business that is, on Wednesday Biden officially has 264 electoral college votes to Trump's 214.
In order to win reelection Trump would need to gain all four of the states whose contests are not called; Nevada, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia. He will get three of those, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia. He won't take Nevada.
Of course, Nevada, who let everyone go back to their day jobs until Friday, is now like the popular girl in high school. . holding out for the last moment prom date announcement even though we know who she's going to the prom with already, which in this case is Joe Biden. Nevada has six electoral votes which will give Biden all he needs with no room to spare.
In the parlance of the weird American color scheme system, Nevada will go the way of its flag. . . blue.
There's nearly no doubt, so the election is decided. Trump should not concede as Nevada decided to take a few days off and certainty is required. After it comes in, however, he should, and the round of lawsuits about to be commenced should cease. They probably won't, however.
Not that it will make a difference. The country is tired, and already people have basically accepted the result, even if the network news, sadly about a day behind the print news, won't admit it.
The Senate is at 48 GOP and 46 Democrat, with one Democratic gain, Hickenlooper of Colorado. It's likely to remain Republican as we predicted, which is a big deal in context. There are four undecided races.
Those races include one in Alaska, where the Republican is far ahead. They also include two in Georgia, where President Trump won in the General Election, where they are both tight, with one favoring the Republican and one favoring the Democrat. And there's one in North Carolina with the Republican barely leading. The Alaskan race will bring the GOP up to 49 Senators. The Republicans lead in two of the remaining three, although only barely. So there's a chance that the Senate shall switch, although it appears unlikely. The Senate is going to be, however, very narrowly Republican.
The House is 204 Democrats to 190 Republicans right now, with 25 seats still undecided. So far the GOP has picked up 6 seats. Of the remaining 25 undecided seats Republicans are ahead in 16 of them. If that holds, the final tally will see 206 Republican Congressmen and 209 Democrats. There is one California House race that is too close to call and there's also one in which Democrats are leading but which is a dead heat. Indeed, there are several undecided races that are within two percentage points right now. That means, ironically, President Trump's predictions that the Republicans would take the House actually remains a possibility. The House is going to be almost 50% Republican even in the best scenario for the Democrats.
Therefore, assuming this all holds, Joe Biden will take office with a Republican Senate that's Republican only narrowly and a Democratic House that's Democratic only barely. This would suggest that not only is the nation sharply divided, all the talk about the GOP being done for is wildly off the mark. Both in the popular vote and in the electoral one, the Republicans are not only a contender, they're somewhat gaining ground. Indeed, in the Gubernatorial races not only did the Governor of Montana not secure election to the Senate, the Governor's office went to a Republican, adding one to the Republican nationwide tally. One legislature, moreover, New Hampshire's, went from Democratic control to Republican.
All in all, therefore, the Republicans had a really good night, all things being considered. The pollsters were predicting a Democratic landslide. Instead, the Democrats gained the Oval Office with no room to spare, the Republicans picked up a Governor's office and a state legislature, and held on, most likely, to the U.S. Senate.
Indeed, if these results hold, the Democrats took a shellacking. With a massively unpopular President in the White House, they didn't take the Senate, lost ground in the House, and they lost ground in the states. Overall, those are horrible results.
With this being the case, Joe Biden has two years to build some sort of national unity, which I guess he'll likely do. The Republicans have two years to build a post Trump party, which I think they'll likely do. The radicals in the Democratic Party are likely defeated in favor of the center, and the alt right in the GOP is likely headed out as well. The country seems to have voted to put Trump behind them, but maybe for no radicals moves as well.
A lot of pre election analysis focused on this election being a referendum on Trump. It may have turned out to be more than than anyone could have expected. The country didn't turn to the left and indeed, overall, turned to the center right. In electing Biden, it seems to have simply indicated that it was tired of Donald Trump and the drama associated with him, and not much else.
November 5, 2020
In some statewide news, Sweetwater County saw the Libertarian candidate defeat the incumbent conservative Democrat for the House. The Libertarian, Marshall Burt, and the popular Democrat, Stan Blake, are both employed by the Union Pacific.
Burt becomes the first third party candidate to be elected to office in Wyoming in a century and the first Libertarian in the United States to be elected to any statewide office since 2002.
There is one House seat, it should be noted, where the sitting independent candidate defeated a Republican nominee. In that case, the Independent is a former Democrat.
A couple of things can be taken away from this, although perhaps this shouldn't be analyzed too much. One thing thing may be the general drift of the state's legislature, which has gone increasingly rightward in recent years and did again in this election. The incoming legislature is now more in the hard right camp than the last one, and the last one featured a lot of hard right candidates. These individuals are far enough to the right that they can't really be described as conservative in conventional terms, and are more headed towards what is a certain sort of fairly extreme conservatism. That brand of conservatism is partially expressed in libertarian concepts, although not fully. The election of a Libertarian suggests that the movement is now popping out of the party and into the public in such a way that even a Libertarian candidate can be elected, and from a county that is traditionally Democratic. This doesn't bode well for efforts to address revenue raising in the upcoming legislature.
Additionally, while the Democratic Party did really well in the General Election in finding two very notable women candidates for the House and Senate races, the party is now extremely thin at the local level. The party did an excellent job of finding two really interesting candidates who did not reflect the real extremist wing of their party, and there was one who was running in the primary. They now need to somehow focus on regaining seats in the Legislature.
The state's legislature was lucky, in a way, that the national election turned out the way it did. While Republicans would have undoubtedly preferred for President Trump to be reelected, the Republican retention of the Senate and Republican gains in the House kept the state from entering a period of what would have been severe political isolation. More on that will follow.
We've called, we'll note, the election on our companion blog Today In Wyoming's History as well.
November 3
Lots of past races on that entry as well.
Cont:
Developing today:
Trump campaign asks to enter Pennsylvania mail-in ballot challenge
There's likely to be an entire slate of these things, all of which are highly likely to go nowhere.
In other matters, one Georgia Senatorial contest is going to go into a runoff in January, given that it is so close. Georgia's law provides for that in certain circumstances.
Given that right now the Senate called races give the GOP 48 seats, the Democrats 46 seats, and Independents, who caucus with the Democrats, 2 seats, the race is dead even. We believe that the GOP will retain the Senate, and of the remaining four uncalled races, three out of the four are leaning Republican. Only one, however, is strongly leaning Republican.
The GOP will definitely end up with 49 seats. It needs two more than that to control the Senate. The other races are so close that it's really fairly impossible to really tell how they will end up. As noted, we predict that the GOP will retain the Senate, but now two days after the election the question really isn't answered. It's possible that it won't be answered until January.
It's also possible that the Senate will be split 50/50, in which case Kamala Harris will end up being an extraordinarily active Vice President and her role as the President of the Senate will be uniquely important.
Cont:
It'll be interesting to see if this oddity holds.
Right now Nevada has 76% of its vote counted.
Biden is leading with 49.43%. Trump has 48.5%.
Libertarian Jo Jorgenson has .95%.
Now, it isn't safe to assume that all of the Libertarian votes would have gone to Trump if they didn't go to Jorgenson. . . or is it? Libertarians aren't Democrats, to be sure, and they certainly aren't in this cycle.
If Trump had that added .95% he'd be leading in Nevada. Barely but leading.
Another third party candidate, Don Blankenship, is also scrubbing off GOP votes. Blankenship is from the Constitution Party, which is a conservative party. He's not getting enough votes such that if he wasn't running, Trump would be in the lead, but it is the case that in Nevada every last vote is going to count.
None of this is to suggest that third party candidates shouldn't run. But, if this holds, this may be the election in which third parties end up deciding the race, and not in the direction that their members would have universally wished for.
November 6, 2020
With it becoming increasingly unlikely that ongoing counting would result in a Trump victory, the President made accusations of their being voting irregularities and resorted to litigation. Not surprisingly, and as we predicted, suits filed in the President's effort have been very quickly dismissed and it is clear that they will go nowhere.
A resort to litigation was long feared as a Trump last ditch strategy this year but those who wrung their hands over it have failed to appreciate that the Courts have always reacted fast and negatively to such efforts. Most of the fear is based on the Supreme Court case of Bush v. Gore which was exceptional in numerous ways. Nonetheless, the President is now vowing to go to the Supreme Court and will likely seek to find an avenue to do so. The pathway for that isn't clear and if one is found, the Supreme Court is almost certainly likely to leave election results alone.
As counting continues, the race in Georgia has narrowed and is now a dead heat NPR had Georgia leaning to Trump up until this morning but as counting goes on, it now has the state leaning to Biden. It's late counting results such as this, which are perfectly legitimate, which the Trump administration fears as now it appears possible that Biden's final count may well exceed the 270 electoral votes necessary to win the office.
As this has occurred, notable Republicans have remained nearly completely silent. Failed candidates tend to be yesterday's news, at least for a time, and this would suggest that the GOP leadership has already moved on from Donald Trump. Indeed, the Party, as earlier noted in this thread, had a remarkably good November 3 if other races are considered.
In response to Trump's abandonment by GOP leadership, his son's lashed out on Twitter and waged their campaign there, complaining about an overall lack of GOP support and thanking those who provided it, while arguing that irregularities are the problem their father currently faces, even though there's little evidence of the same. Indeed, Trump, all things considered, grossly over performed expectations.
In other election news Nevada removed a state provision that defined marriage as being between opposite genders. The constitutional protection was inactive, at least for the time being, due to the Obergefell decision. News reports provided that the state acted to protect same gender unions as a right, but this appears to be completely incorrect. Rather, the state's voters removed an inactive prohibition. While this stands as independent news, it should also signal the extent to which Nevada should not be regarded as a deeply conservative state.
The City of Denver's voters lifted a ban on pit bulls.
With all the close attention to states that remain undecided but which have very close races, it's hardly been noticed that Alaska, which has three electoral votes, remains at only 50% in its tally of counts. It has the slowest counting process in the nation, partially due to an emphasis on security.
We'll see if I'm correct, but my prediction is that all the the still counting states save for Alaska will be done counting today and called by the AP.
Cont:
On Georgia, it now appears that there will be a double Senate runoff. This would almost certainly mean that those races will determine control of the Senate. This surprising result means that it won't be clear until January who will control the Senate.
It's also a good reason that systems like Georgia's are bad. Joe Biden is ahead in votes in Georgia by only 917 votes right now, but he is ahead. Irrespective of whether Trump or Biden have the most votes, no matter who has the most votes will take the state. The fact that the same system doesn't apply to Georgia's Senatorial contest will throw the nation into further uncertainty and, moreover, likely make the Georgia races the most expensive in the history of the nation.
Cont:
It appears that the Post Office was late in delivering 150,000 ballots, including in states with tight races.
Ironically, the way this is playing out, that can only have hurt Donald Trump, not Joe Biden. With some races on the razor's edge, but Trump needing all of those races, it was Trump, not Biden, that was hurt. The irony lies on a late Post Master General's messing with the Post Office which couldn't conceivably have helped it.
Of course, not all of that would be the Post Office's fault. Very late ballots in a year in which both candidates have received more votes than any other in history would have a lot to do with that as well.
Cont:
It's super close, but Biden could end up with considerably more than the 270 electoral votes he'll need. The popular vote, which has been somewhat discounted over the past four years, will also be Biden's but the overall tallies will be extremely close.
November 7, 2020
A ballot initiative in Colorado was very narrowly passed requiring the Colorado Department of Fish and Game to reintroduce wolves to the western slope of Colorado.
There's a lot that's wrong with this idea, including its geographic scope. An NPR article on it depicted two Boomer hippy backers in their dwelling in Denver, the crowded weedy metropolis on the East slope where wolves won't be going. I'd support introducing wolves to Denver, but that proposal wasn't made. . . not surprisingly.
Additionally, wolves have reintroduced themselves to the West slope and don't need Flower Power to do it. Given that, hopefully the Colorado fish and game can just maintain that the wolves self reintroduction accomplished the goal and manage that.
The United States Supreme Court ordered that late arriving mail in ballots be kept separate from other ballots but declined to order the state to stop counting them.
What this means long term isn't clear, but it may mean that the Supreme Court might look at the propriety of Pennsylvania's counting on these ballots.
Cont:
The AP, and hence NPR, have Joe Biden at 290 electoral votes, and therefore, as we said some time ago, its safe to assume he is the President Elect.
House and Senate results remain unchanged.
November 8, 2020
Spontaneous demonstrations in celebration of Biden's victory broke out in various large cities across the U.S. yesterday. Last night Biden and Harris delivered victory speeches. President Trump has not yet conceded the race and is falling back on legal action. Suits filed in support of the administration are doomed and likely to be disposed of in short order.
The proposed amendment to the Wyoming Constitution failed to pass.
The returning state legislature will be more right wing than the preceding one, following a path it has taken over the last several years. This will mean that its unlikely to support any of the various tax measures that have been proposed and the state can expect deep budget cuts. It's also likely to but the legislature deeply out of sink with the Federal government, which may reach the point where the Federal government largely ignores the state, an unenviable position for the state to be in given the extent to which it relies upon the Federal government.
November 9, 2020
With so much attention being focused on the Presidential race, it's easy to forget that the results are still coming in for the House and Senate. It's also easy to forget that some states still have fewer returns in than the two three states that are still being watched for the Presidential race.
One of the states that's called for the Oval Office, but not entirely in, is California. Three House seats in that state, widely regarded as a Democratic state, may flip to the GOP.
More precisely, they may flip back. The seats in question were Republican seats prior to the 2016 election, and may be once again.
This demonstrates quite frankly what we've otherwise said her today in regard to this being a centrist election and a referendum on Donald Trump. It also emphasizes demographic trends, however, that the Democrats have assumed were in their favor but which, as we noted earlier, are turning out not to be.
Indeed, it's worth noting that of the five House seats that have been called and flipped this year, all flipped to the GOP. The majority of the races that haven't been called are leaning to the Republicans as well, and while there aren't enough uncalled races left for the GOP to have a chance of taking the House, they came pretty close to doing just that.
November 10, 2020
Internal fighting has broken out in the Georgia GOP with two Georgia Senators demanding the resignation of the state's Republican Secretary of State. He refused to resign, and the State's Republican Lt. Governor further announced that there was no credible evidence of voter fraud.
Donald Trump authorized the Department of Justice to pursue voting irregularities, if they exist. There is no evidence they do exist. Faced with the President's position on this, the party is taking the position that he's "within his rights" to pursue such matters, which, in spite of the way its being taken in the press, is a lukewarm endorsement at best. In reality, the GOP seems to be taking that position as a way of trying to get through the next three months with a lame duck President that seems willing to resort to the courts in what will prove to be a doomed effort to retain office.
Even Attorney General Barr was taking a lukewarm approach ot the matter as his memo to his department stated: "specious, speculative, fanciful or far-fetched claims should not be a basis for initiating federal inquiries” and “nothing here should be taken as any indication that the Department has concluded that voting irregularities have impacted the outcome of any election.” With that, Barr all but instructed his staff to ignore the President's push to investigate. This dovetails with the GOP leadership and it can be anticipated that in a couple of weeks that Barr will announce nothing was found, and the GOP will declare the process over. The President will react badly.
Locally, the state's Congressional representation took mostly non committal positions with Cynthia Lummis' being the most committal, to the extent it was, in that she expressed confidence in Donald Trump prevailing in the election based upon a conversation with Vice President Mike Pence in which he expressed optimism.
In reality there's no way for Trump to retain the office and the challenge for Republicans is not to taint themselves by supporting court action, which will be widely detested by the electorate, and which will damage their chances in the Georgia run off for the Senate. Additionally, some effort needs to be made to secure a smooth transition of office, which right now President Trump isn't cooperating in. Turmoil may further be developing inside the Administration itself, with the President having fired his Secretary of Defense yesterday. My guess is that Barr will lose his position before the end as well.
November 11, 2020
Alaska's super slow counting is finally resulting in some calls with the result now being that the GOP has 49 seats in the Senate and the Democrats 46. There are three races left to go, two of which will being going into a runoff in January.
In the House, the Democrats will retain the it, but it's now at 218 to 202, with fifteen races left to be called. All of the uncalled races are leaning Republican, so the Democrats could end up holding the House by a single seat.
Indeed, right now, it looks like the Democrats will hold the House by one seat, and the Republicans will probably hold the Senate by one seat.
Georgia is doing a recount by hand.
On Georgia, one House seat that the Democrats did flip, although only barely, was the 7th Congressional District of Georgia. It went from Republican to Democrat. It was one of three House seats to flip to Democrats, but it was the only one that was close. It was within two percentage points.
While there would be other ways to look at it, that means is that with the six seats the GOP picked up, they actually would have gained control of the House if they'd kept that one. The pre election predictions of the GOP flipping the House very nearly came true. The Republican Party did extremely well down ballot.
And Georgia will turn out, this year, to be the state that determined the makeup of Congress for the next two years at least.
Cont:
And now two additional Senate races have been called so the GOP has taken 50 seats and the Democrats 46. Two seats are occupied by Independents who caucus with the Democrats, given them effectively 48 seats. Two seats, both from Georgia, are subject to Georgia runoffs which will occur in January.
The best case scenario, therefore, for Democrats is to take those two seats in which case the Senate is tied, 50 each. In that case the Vice President as the President of the Senate can cast tie breaking votes. The Republicans only need one of the two seats to have a majority. Both seats are presently held by Republicans, but obviously they aren't safe seats.
November 12, 2020
It's being reported in legal circles that at least one of the law firms that President Trump's campaign has been relying upon for legal challenges on the election results is experiencing internal firm dissention over the representation. This is remarkable in that this firm has represented some highly unpopular causes in the past.
According to reports, lawyers within the firm are questioning the efforts due to the reaction they are receiving. Negative reaction to firms based on their client's causes are not unusual, and aren't, apparently, to the particular firm. The difference here may be that the representation will be taken in some quarters as being contrary to democratic principles. In legal circles almost no one gives any of the challenges any serious chance of reversing the outcome. A Trump spokesman noted that they're expected to be completed within a couple of weeks which is the same estimate of time we provided the other day. Generally courts dispose of such challenges quite quickly.
The Trump Administration is being shaken up post election, something extremely unusual for a departing administration. It'll be interesting to see if any new appointments which require confirmation will be taken up by the Senate given that there's little point to doing so and it may serve as a distraction from the race in Georgia.
One GOP Senator has imposed a deadline on the Administration to start sharing intelligence briefings with President Elect Biden. These are typically done for the incoming administration but are not presently occurring. If the deadline isn't met, the Senator "will take it up", although it's not clear what that means. The delay in 2000 to share the briefings is being blamed in part for the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks on the US, although given as that occurred nearly a year later, its difficult to see how that would really have been the case.
November 14, 2020
Georgia now remains the only state that hasn't been called by the AP with North Carolina having come in for Trump. The current tally therefore is 290 electoral votes for Joe Biden and 232 for Donald Trump.
As widely reported on, a slate of legal actions, none of which stands any chance of success, has been filed by Trump's campaign or his backers, although one has already been voluntarily dismissed in Arizona. The purpose of filing the suits has been widely debated and attributed to such varying goals as simply hoping against hope to reverse enough results to result in a victory or, as set out in the pre election article by The Atlantic, to delay the certification of the official results in enough states to throw choosing their electors to Republican legislators who, it's hoped, would choose Trump delegates. The latter result would totally discredit a second Trump term and probably result in the Democrats winning the Senate run off in Georgia and a second Trump impeachment in the Spring. Whether that goal is seriously entertained is of course not known and it there's good reason to believe the effort is simply hoping against hope. In event, no credible legal observer gives this effort any chance of success and even at least one of the law firms involved is reported to be internally questioning their association with the effort.
There are some reports that Rudy Giuliani has been tasked with overall leadership on the lawsuit effort.
In the House, where the Republicans are doing really well, the results now reflect 219 Democratic seats and 203 Republicans ones. The remaining 13 uncalled races are all leaning Republican. This means my counting was in error the other day as the final result is likely to be 219 Democrats to 216 Republicans, an uncomfortable three seat margin.
Two of the seats flipped to Republican control were in California which has been regarded as increasingly solid Democratic but obviously isn't completely so. Young Kim regained an Orange County seat that has been lost just two years ago.
Cont:
Nine of the legal actions filed last week have been dismissed, one voluntarily. Adding to that, the lawyers from one Pennsylvania case informed the court that they were withdrawing from the case, indicating they almost certainly are in strong disagreement with their client about continuing to prosecute the case.
While some of these matters will now go on to appellate courts, this effectively means that Trumps legal strategy has met with practical defeat. None of this is a surprise to legal observers, myself included. There was never any serious chance of these suits prevailing. If the thought was to slow the process so that legislatures would chose the electors, the strategist apparently didn't take into account that courts are capable of very rapid decisions in matters such as this.
November 15, 2020
Republican lawmakers in Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin have declared that they will not intervene in the selection of electors with some noting that doing so would violate state law and defy the vote of the people.
If the hope of the Trump administration was to have state legislators pick electors that would favor Trump in the electoral college, after delaying the certification of the election through lawsuits, or by otherwise gumming the process up through suits, as The Atlantic has claimed, this puts a definitive end to that remote possibility.
November 16, 2020
An odd occurrence in an odd election happened yesterday when President Trump issued a tweet that stated that Joe Biden had "won" the election due to cheating. This occurred just before the Sunday morning news programs and the networks immediately contacted a representative of the administration to find out if this signaled a type of concession of the election, and received confirmation that it had. By the end of the morning news programs, however, Trump was back on Twitter indicating that he was not conceding.
There's quite a bit of speculation that this will the Trump position giong forward. He may simply not concede but end up admitting that Biden won, preserving a "lost cause" myth which has already been compared to the Lost Cause myth of the Confederacy. The reason for this isn't clear, and it may just reflect his personality. It has been noted, however, that money being raised for the completely doomed legal actions will be possible to keep, and this may be future seed money for Trump to attempt a run in 2024, which is already being speculated on.
A lot of commentary has been forthcoming on whether the administration's efforts should be abandoned by Republicans as its likely to hurt them. John Bolton urged Republicans over the weekend to take that position. So far, only a few are. The though in part here may be that failing to concede will aid Republicans in the Georgia senate runoffs, but that's likely to be a miscalculation. As one Georgia candidate has pointed out the number of Georgians who will become eligible to vote prior to January and who were not in November is over 20,000, with most of them being younger voters who are more likely to break Democratic than Republican. Generally, it would appear that the GOP would be better off admitting it lost the Presidency and urging Georgians to be a firewall.
November 18, 2020
It's being reported that Rudy Giuliani is seeking a fee of $20,000 per day to take over Donald Trump's legal efforts in regard to the election. At this point, that would only add the element of the surreal to the efforts which have all but failed. Among those losses came one from the Pennsylvania Supreme Court yesterday.
Michigan's largest precinct briefly deadlocked on certifying its election results and then reversed itself. The four person board, two from each party, initial deadlocked but then certified after asking Michigan to look into discrepancies. The brief deadlocked was noted in a tweet by the President prior to the board reversing itself.
November 19, 2020
The Wayne County Michigan drama goes on.
Yesterday, as we noted here, the county's vote was certified after briefly being deadlocked. Today the two Republican delegates are trying to take their certification back, claiming they were bullied.
Wayne County is a Democratic county with a large African American population. The vote there undoubtedly went for Biden, which doesn't mean that everything was perfect. Still, whatever irregularities may exist would have to exist on a massive scale in order to make a difference in the Michigan race. Beyond that, being wishy washy on certification isn't covering the delegates in glory. People probably really were upset at them, but to certify things one moment, and then take it back (or try to) the next, is less than stellar conduct.
I don't know what this actually achieves, if anything. By and large most processes like this don't allow for "backsies". We'll see if Michigan does, but a probable result is that you just can't do that.
November 20, 2020
Georgia finished its manual recount which confirmed that Joe Biden took the state.
This is no surprise. Recounts almost never reverse the original results.
More surprising is President Trump's invitation to several Michigan lawmakers. His Press Secretary has denied that this is an effort to pressure them to refuse to certify the vote and pick new electors, but the purpose of the meeting otherwise would be a mystery.
If that is the plan, it won't work. Michigan provides that its electors must follow the popular vote and an effort of this type cannot legally result in a change in results.
It is making the stability of American democracy more questionable than at any point since 1860, however. At this point, numerous questions are being raised that the GOP is going to have to answer for.
Cont:
Michigan lawmakers who met with President Trump rebuffed him and issued a written statement noting that the electoral votes would go to the winner in the state. The statement was strongly worded.
November 21, 2020
Georgia certified its results making it the first state where Donald Trump has been contesting the results to do so. To some degree it has to be wondered if its rapid certification is aimed to take it out of the target of post election actions attacking the results.
Cont:
With this, I'm inclined to start a new edition of this thread. New headlines in the Tribune:
Cheney calls on Trump to provide evidence of fraud or respect the electoral process
Liz Cheney, I have to say, has really being rising to the occasion this past several months.
November 22, 2020
Cheney's statement:
America is governed by the rule of law. The President and his lawyers have made claims of criminality and widespread fraud, which they allege could impact election results. If they have genuine evidence of this, they are obligated to present it immediately in court and to the American people. I understand that the President has filed more than thirty separate lawsuits. If he is unsatisfied with the results in those lawsuits, then the appropriate avenue is to appeal. If the President cannot prove these claims or demonstrate that they would change the election result, he should fulfill his oath to preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States by respecting the sanctity of our electoral process.
The Federal judge who dismissed Trump's Pennsylvania lawsuit on Friday noted that it contained "strained legal arguments" and was "without merit". That may be a warning sign that the courts have had enough and will start sanctioning Trump.
Rudy Giuliani claimed the ruling would help advance the suit the United States Supreme Court more "quickly", which may declare his intent but which is really trying to put a happy face on another serial legal defeat. Pennsylvania certifies its vote tomorrow.
The Republican National Committee and the Michigan Republican Party issued a letter yesterday to the state's election certification seeking a "full audit" of the process.
The Trump campaign asked for a recount of the Georgia vote which was already recounted.
Pennsylvania Senator Pat Toomey congratulated Joe Biden for winning the election. The Republican also called on Trump to acknowledge the results.
Cont:
The weekend news shows proved interesting.
On Meet The Press Republican Senator Cramer of South Dakota took the position that it "certainly appeared" (or words to that effect) that Biden had won the election and that the transition should start tomorrow, as it really should have started a week ago. Cramer stopped short of criticizing President Trump for his lawsuits simply stating that this was a right and that people ought to "calm down". Commentary following Toomey, however, suggested that this is a new Republican tone in anticipation of certification tomorrow after which departure from the President will increase.
On This Week Chris Christie fully acknowledged Biden as the President Elect, noting that he had done so the early morning following the election. Christie was quite critical of Trump in this context, compared in fact with the fairly subdued Rahm Emanuel. Be that as it may, Karen Finney managed to make an amazing muddled comment intending to praise Christie while criticizing other Republicans, but which sounded like she was criticizing Christie. While in context it was apparent, although only barely, what she was attempting to do, Christie didn't pick up on it and gave her a blistering lecture in return.
Christie also termed the Trump legal effort a "national embarrassment".
Taken all together, the signs are there that the GOP may begin to shift this week. We ought to know by mid week, given the Thanksgiving holiday.
November 23, 2020
The Trump legal team distances itself from attorney Sidney Powell who had made a series of increasingly extreme claims regarding the 2020 election.
Cont:
The General Services Administration will begin the transition process and cooperate with Joe Biden's incoming team. This acknowledges him as the "apparent winner".
November 24, 2020
Michigan certified its vote yesterday.
Cont:
Pennsylvania and Nevada certified their results today.
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