Right now, three of those legs are pretty wobbly.
Oil has been a victim of a bizarre price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia. Price at the pump, yesterday, was down to $1.75/gallon, the lowest I've seen in years, and a fellow I know who had grocery store points bought it the other day for $0.83/gallon, and almost unbelievably low price. And all of this as the price per barrel for crude has been in the low $20s.
Relief, possibly, might be in sight. President Trump claimed yesterday that the spatting oligarchies were close to a deal, which if the people who run them are wise, the ought to be. Irrespective of their public positions, both governments are a house of cards and if this keeps up, it's only a matter of time before somebody on an oil payroll of some kind or another begins to plan a change in government, at which all bets are really off. They haven't reached that point yet, but they will, as neither of these governments is that stable. Crude today is at $32.00/bbl, a considerable jump, but still far too low for Wyoming's oil to be economically produced.
All of that is outside of the Coronavirus disaster realm but certainly adds to the developing economic disaster here. It may play a part in ending it, however, as the disease is now hitting Russia and from what can be discerned from a distance, it's hitting Russia pretty hard. Putin may be able to ride out an oil related disaster for awhile. . . after all the Russian capacity for suffering is enormous. . . but keeping a health related one quiet and under control at the same time will be difficult. He needs one to end.
In hopes that it will end there are efforts to try to get the oil and gas industry recognized as a critical industry if Wyoming goes into a shelter in place shut down. Indeed, stopping anything ongoing would be difficult at best. But the slow down is stopping a lot of work, it appears, and the longer this goes on the worse that will be.
And its trouble the state didn't need with the Coronavirus Pandemic also going on. Lots of towns are now shut down to some degree and the entire state has closed occupations, at least for another week, that are in the food industry. So the layoffs have been huge, hurting an economy that's already hurting. While no shelter in place order is in place, lots of businesses have closed anyhow, following recommendations that have been but out by authoritative sources.
Suffice it to say, tourism right now is temporarily over . Teton County told its tourists, which are a bit part of its economy, to go home. The State closed its parks to camping. Air travel has taken a major hit. It'll recover once the pandemic abates to an ending point, but not before then.
And the price of cattle is down while meat is up.
The only part of the economy's seat, therefore, that's not wobbly is government, as it can't be. In this emergency situation, it's very active and has no choice but to be. But the problems it now has to face are gigantic.
Pondering those questions looks to bring the Legislature back into session, but nobody knows when. Indeed, doing it now would send the wrong message as convening during a pandemic is exactly what we're told not to do. They're aware of that, but faced with an unprecedented economic disaster, they feel that later on, they'll have no choice but to gather.
Nobody knows where we will be by then. In a couple of months, the virus could be in full retreat and science in full advance, or not. Oil could be at $20/bbl or $100/bbl. Cattle prices could still be low or have risen.
Let's hope the stool is mostly repaired by then.
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