So this occurred:1
Danish defense video of gas venting to the atmosphere from severed Nord Stream pipeline.
But why?
This assumes, of course, that the Russians did it, in which case, they sabotaged their own pipeline.
The Nord Stream pipeline refers to two natural gas pipelines, now both severed, that run under the Baltic from Russia to Germany, supplying gas to the latter. Nord Stream 1 is owned by Nord Stream AG, whose majority interest owner is the Russian state gas company Gazprom. Nord Stream two is planned to be operated by Nord Stream 2 AG, which would be wholly owned by Gazprom. If the Russians damaged it, they severed what amounted to a stream of revenue. . . save for it being shut down right now due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Wars don't last forever, and logic would presume that the Russians would want to open the spigots back up after the fighting is over. Now, they can't. Or they can't until it's repaired. And now it might never be. Liking burning the boats, right now they can't go back, and neither can Germany. The Germans are going to have to get gas somewhere else.
Well, they've already started to, but they'll have to further look for it. They actually have to do it.
So why?
Well, right now, it's pretty darned hard to figure out why the Russians actually do anything whatsoever. They seem to be on a rampaging ride of ineptitude and incompetence. Their army, once presumed to be one of the best in the world, has been proven inept, with thin depth, in Ukraine. They have been outfought and outmaneuvered right and left by a smaller power. They're calling on reserves that they must not really have, as they're sending men who have only a year of service right into combat. They're actually bringing back blocking units to keep their army from retreating. Their equipment, which I was never impressed with, has been proven to be junk.
And rather than attempt to declare victory and go home, or negotiate a sane face-saving peace, they're doubling down and annexing territory they may very well have no ability to hold on it, while at home men are voting with their feet.
Nothing they've done has worked, and everything that Russian military pundits have called for has failed or is failing.
What good could blowing up your own pipeline serve?
Is it a warning to Germany that they could make things worse, that's supposed to cow the BDR into a greater level of neutrality? Is it a signal to Europe that they'd better take Russia seriously or Russia will take its ball and go home?
If so, that isn't working.
Is it a false flag operation designed to provide an excuse for harsher actions against Ukraine? If so, it's not believable that Ukraine could have severed an undersea pipeline in the Baltic, and it doesn't seem like Russia can be any harsher on Ukraine than it already is trying to be.
Is it to provide an excuse for expanding the war west, under the pretext that the Poles or the Germans did it? If so, there's no reason to believe that the Russians can do any better against the Poles than they already are against Ukraine, and they definitely can't do better against Germany, let alone NATO at large.
Or is it just for interior consumption in a country that's sending men into combat without training for a cause that rank and file Russians aren't seemingly that keen on?
Footnotes:
1. This entry was started before Donald J. Trump posted his absolutely incredibly hubristic comment that he would serve as negotiator due to this event.
Trump will be lucky if he doesn't end up serving time. That he's suggest acting as a mediator is, well, simply beyond belief.
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