Thursday, January 7, 2021

The 25th Amendment.

You've been hearing about it, what does it say?

Well. . . :

AMENDMENT XXV   

SECTION 1

In case of the removal of the President from office or of his death or resignation, the Vice President shall become President.

SECTION 2

Whenever there is a vacancy in the office of the Vice President, the President shall nominate a Vice President who shall take office upon confirmation by a majority vote of both Houses of Congress.

SECTION 3

Whenever the President transmits to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives his written declaration that he is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, and until he transmits to them a written declaration to the contrary, such powers and duties shall be discharged by the Vice President as Acting President.

SECTION 4

Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President.

Thereafter, when the President transmits to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives his written declaration that no inability exists, he shall resume the powers and duties of his office unless the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive department or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit within four days to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office. Thereupon Congress shall decide the issue, assembling within forty-eight hours for that purpose if not in session. If the Congress, within twenty-one days after receipt of the latter written declaration, or, if Congress is not in session, within twenty-one days after Congress is required to assemble, determines by two-thirds vote of both Houses that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall continue to discharge the same as Acting President; otherwise, the President shall resume the powers and duties of his office.

There's talk of invoking the 25th Amendment.  Frankly, there's good reason to do so. The President is acting contrary to the law and appears to be unable to accept reality.  An inability to accept reality is delusional by definition.

This would assume, of course, that President Trump really believes he won the election.  If he doesn't, and he likely really doesn't, he isn't delusional, he is instead seditious.

Taking Trump at his word, however, would suggest a strong element of delusion. And a delusional person with his finger on the nuclear trigger is a danger to himself, others, and the entire world.  Given that that, the 25th could be invoked.

If invoked today, and there's discussions going on to do just that, President Trump would be immediately removed from office.

He'd no doubt right a letter than he's okay.  

Vice President Pence, who reportedly feels betrayed by Trump due to abuse he received from him yesterday, would have to write a letter back that, no Trump is not okay.

Congress would have to assemble within 48 hours to discuss it.

What would Congress do?

Well, nobody knows.  Clearly at least half of the House and cleanly half of the Senate would uphold the removal.  But upholding it would require about 25% of the Republicans to go along.

Right now, they very well might.

Of course, Congress wouldn't really have to do anything.  It has 21 days, and there aren't 21 days left in the Trump Administration.  Simply scheduling hearing, calling witnesses, and frankly under the current circumstances requiring Donald Trump to undergo a psychological IME, would take more time than that.  Chances are, quite frankly, that the hearings would simply roll through the inauguration and into an ultimate criminal charge if the President was deemed fully in control of his faculties.

There'd be more riots and insurrections.  More absurd claims that Trump won the election, and probably more state legislators making arguments better heard in Munich in 1932 than in the United States at any time in its post 1860 history.

So there's the risk. Does it do more damage, or less, and is it justified?

But here's another factor.  Just like the German army officers who in July 1944 carried out a plot against Hitler as they wanted the world to know that there were Germans who didn't agree with what was going on, the GOP might have to take this action now to save itself.  

We'll look at it further, but right now the GOP has probably less than a 50% chance of surviving the past week.  It's now two parties, one a conservative party and one an insurrectionist populist party.   That can't keep on.  The conservatives either have to bolt or dramatically act.. 

And the 25th Amendment would be a dramatic act.

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