Dueling Agendas

This blog is history focused, with a little but if outdoorsy stuff and some agrarianism thrown in.  Be that as it may, we've always tracked some contemporary issues as history in the making. 

The period we're in now is truly an historic one.  A pandemic rages across the globe.  There seems to be a conservative rising tide in American politics which is rising just as it was thought a progressive tidal wave was about to swamp Washington D.C.  At the same time the controversial sitting Republican President has been voted out of office by the electorate but has so far refused to concede the election. The President Elect is making his early actions known, as he nearly has to do.

This blog is going to track events, probably with minimal commentary, from now to the Inauguration on January 20.  We'll reluctantly adopt the stupid color scheme used by the Press, Red for Republicans and Blue for Democrats (the reverse of the international norm) for easy tracking.

We're doing this thread as these times are likely to be interesting indeed.

November 14, 2020.

So what's happened so far?

Probably a lot we've missed.  But here goes

Donald Trump has fired senior defense officials, including Secretary of Defense Mark Esper.  The reasons are unclear.

The Trump Administration is fast tracking oil leases in the Alaska Arctic aiming to lease the lands prior to the change in administration.

Joe Biden has indicated he will reverse many of Secretary of Education Betsy DeVos's rules, however as DeVos made her changes through the formal rulemaking procedure, attempting that will require the same.  DeVos was controversial early in the Trump administration but like several other long serving Trump figures has largely been out of sight for most of the Trump administration.

November 17, 2020

President Trump's administration has informed the already fairly small military mission's to Iraq and Afghanistan that they are both to be reduced to 2,500 troops.  Planning has commenced and the move is to be completed shortly before the inauguration.

Both military missions are already fairly small in relative terms, so while the news is significant, it is not as large as withdrawal as might be imagined.  The problem is that the American mission to Iraq is significant in preventing the country from becoming an Iranian satellite, which it likely would if the US were to leave.  The small 5,000 man American mission to Afghanistan may be all that keeps that nation from falling to the Taliban.  A good case could be made for increasing the military mission to Afghanistan.

Nato's Secretary General has warned against withdrawal following this hitting the news yesterday.

November 18, 2020

Large withdrawals were ordered from Iraq and Afghanistan as noted yesterday.  The drawdown was criticized by Mitch McConnell who compared it disfavorably to an Obama era drawdown.  They will be complete on January 15.  The one in Iraq amounts to 500 troops, which is fairly insignificant, but the one in Afghanistan is larger.

It appears that the US may also withdraw from Somalia.  The US has only 700 troops there but they are regarded as critical in the ongoing mission against Al Qaeda.

Returning the troops to the US, while traditionally seen as a Democratic position, has become a position in a certain section of the Republican Party in recent years and was a campaign promise of Trump's.

The Administration fired a DHS official who acknowledged that there was no widespread voting fraud in the recent election.

November 23, 2020

The United States has withdrawn from the Open Skies Treaty.  The 2002 treaty allows for unmanned areal flights over member nations territories, a concept first proposed by Dwight Eisenhower in 1955.  The treaty allows such flights under controlled conditions.  Interestingly member nations avail themselves of them much less than might be supposed, and each flight is extremely expensive.  Both the US and Russia have accused each other of cheating on the treaty.

As a practical matter, the treaty matters less and less every year as intelligence satellites get better and better.  Indeed, it's notable that it was drafted in 2002 at which point intelligence satellites were already excellent.  Therefore the treaty is really of more value to the less advanced nations that are part of it.

November 24, 2020

Joe Biden announced a slate of cabinet and administration picks yesterday, a day ahead of when he was slated to do so.  

Many,. frankly, mean nothing to me, as with all such positions, you have to be a Washington insider to really know who they are.

One familiar name is John Kerry, age 77, who was named to a position in which the press is referring to him a Climate Special Envoy.  Janet Yellen, whom I know nothing of, was picked as Treasury Secretary.  She was once head of the Federal Reserve and is 74 years old.  Antony Blinken, a former Deputy National Security Adviser, will be Secretary of State.  He's 58 and a lawyer.

So far these choices have been praised, but one notable thing about at least a couple of them that hasn't been mentioned yet is that they're old, so once again, in the three positions actually named so far, we're seeing a Boomer weighted government.  Blinken would be a late Boomer or non Boomer, depending upon how you figure it.  Yellen is apparently highly experienced and qualified for her job, and we expect somebody wizened to occupy that position.  Kerry, whose position is new, is nearly as old as Biden.  His choice, however, may reflect his long career in government as well as a desire not to anger the GOP by the choice of a younger, probably more left leaning, figure for a new position.  At any rate, Kerry's visage now really shows his age.

California Senator Dianne Feinstein, age 87, who most recently angered Conservatives when Amy Coney Barrett was confirmed as a Federal District Court judge by stating to her "the dogma lives loudly within you", and the Progressives when she complimented Lindsey Graham over how he ran her confirmation hearing to the Supreme Court, is stepping out of her role as Democratic leader on the Judiciary Committee.

November 25, 2020

Marco Rubio indicated that he might not vote to confirm Joe Biden's cabinet picks indicating that they "went to Ivy League schools, have strong resumes, attend all the right conferences and will be polite and orderly caretakers of America’s decline."

Rubio's comments are interesting in that they show an emerging post Trump GOP emerging.  One of the things we're seeing is the resumption of the Republican Party as the conservative "loyal opposition". Some have argued that the GOP is better in this role than actually being in power.  

It also shows the split between views on Trump's policies v Trump.  Quite a few conservatives liked Trump's policies but didn't like Trump.  One of those policies that's emerged as generally well though of now is his hard line on China, with there being fears that the United States may resume a head in the sand view towards China.  Rubio's comment is aimed at least in part towards that.

On Biden's nominees, the press is full of reports about "firsts".  Much like Kamala Harris' election to the VP slot, most of the first are nearly meaningless at this point and in fact are really difficult to accurately track.  As we noted here the other day one of the supposed "firsts" attributed to Kamala Harris' election isn't even correct.  What the appointments so far really demonstrate is a real "go with the Joe you know" aspect to the appointments in that the various persons chosen are pretty much all solid bureaucrats or technocrats who can be depended upon to be solid, non controversial, and pretty much middle of the road figures.  They're basically cementing the late Barack Obama policy on most things in place for four years.

This will somewhat upset the right, as a lot of those policies were upsetting to conservatives.  But it will also upset the left, who was hoping for fairly extensive "progressive" reform.

President Trump has pardoned Michael Flynn. The move is proving interesting to the press but not really to anyone else.

November 30, 2020

Joe Biden will order a halt to the building of the border wall with Mexico by executive order shortly after being confirmed.

The Trump Administration is reducing protections on migratory birds.

December 1, 2020

All signs indicate that Biden nominee Neera Tanden, nominated to head the OMB, is facing an uphill battle given prior statements she has made regarding Republicans.  Senator Lindsay Graham, for instance, called her a "nut job".

December 5, 2020

President Trump has ordered most US troops out of Somalia. The number there is approximately 700.

December 8, 2020

Joe Biden has announced that retired General Lloyd Austin shall be Secretary of Defense.

Austin served in the U.S. Army form 1975 until 2016.  If confirmed, which it seems he surely would be, he would be the first African American in the role.

December 10, 2020

Gen. Austin is proving to be a controversial pick for Secretary of Defense as he'd require Congress to vote an exception to the law which provides that an officer must have been separated from the military for seven years prior to serving in that capacity.  He retired only five  years ago.

December 15, 2020

Loyal Trump Attorney General William Bar is now out as Attorney General, the result it appears of not being able to follow Trump as far as Trump would have it.  Barr was generally one of the most dedicated Trump allies, so the removal is fairly dramatic.  Jeffrey Rosen now becomes the Acting Attorney General.

Joe Biden and Kamala Harris dove into policy for essentially the first time yesterday promising "common sense" "gun reform", which tends to be code for banning a species of firearms labeled as "assault weapons" but not meeting the military definition of the same, and for universal background checks.  Based on the current makeup of Congress, it's extremely unlikely that either such effort would make it through Congress.

December 16, 2020

Joe Biden has picked Pete Buttigieg as Transportation Secretary.

December 17, 2020

Alexandria Oscasio-Cortez has stated what should be obvious and called for the Democrats to replace Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi in their leadership positions.

December 20, 2020

More in the nature of news than a dueling agenda item, it was announced that members of the goofball unnecessary Space Force will bear the goofball cartoon name Guardians.

In other news, it was announced that the Department of the Interior will be headed up in the Biden Administration by Deb Haaland, who is Native American.  It's been widely noted that she will apparently be the first Native American to occupy the post.  Less noted is that she'll be the first single mother to occupy the post.  

Haaland is a real success story but what her appointment actually means in terms of her agency isn't clear at this point.

Both these stories will be the subject of future entries on the blog.

December 22, 2020

William Barr, in his final appearance as Attorney General increased the distance between himself and Donald Trump stated that he saw no need to appoint Special Council to look into the 2020 election or for another one to look into Hunter Biden's taxes.  He confirmed the view that the Russians are responsible for the attack on American computer systems.

December 24, 2020

President Trump vetoed the just passed defense spending bill and is threatening to do the same over the COVID relief bill.

The latter bill has been criticized by Trump for its relief payments being too low, with Trump preferring $2,000  rather than $600. This has caused the late term irony of the Democrats supporting the President on this matter.  The defense bill has drawn his attention for other reasons which are less clear.  The veto is highly likely to be overridden.

January 2, 2021

Congress overrode President Trump's defense spending bill veto.

The Senate also has refused to up the relief payments to $2,000.

January 4, 2021

The Chaplain of the House of Representatives shall be retired Rear Admiral Margaret G. Kibben.  She replaces the outgoing Fr. Patrick J. Conroy.  Kibben is a Presbyterian minister. 

January 12, 2021

The Trump administration put Cuba back on the list of countries sponsoring terrorism.  Earlier in the week it declared Houthi fighters in Yemen to be a terrorist organization.

January 13, 2021

The headquarters for the Space Command, which includes the absurdity of the Space Force, was revealed to be Huntsville, Alabama.  It's interesting that it was the Air Force that made this announcement.

January 19, 2021

President Elect Biden has indicated that he will cancel the Keystone XL Pipeline via executive order on his first day in office.  In reaction, the Canadian government has asked him not to.

January 20, 2021

What Joe Biden will do early on isn't clear, although he's been giving some hints, as in regard to the XL Pipeline.  What his supporters would have him do, however, is pretty clear. 

Robert Reich, the liberal economist who has served in several Democratic Administrations, published a list of ten executive orders that he's urge.  in an article called:

10 Bold Moves Biden Can Make Without Congress

Some these include:

1. Lower drug prices (through a regulatory vehicle I don't really grasp)

2. Forgive federal student loans, which I feel would be a horrible idea.

3.  Make more use of the Federal antitrust laws, which I feel is a good idea.

4."Institue pro worker policies for federal contractors" which basically mandates some things like an increased hourly wage, etc., for contractors.  Reich claims 1/5th of the economy is represented by this sector.

5.  Go after the fiction of using independent contractors in some industries, like Uber and Lyft, which I think is a good idea.

6. Eliminate Medicaid work requirements, reinstate funding for Planned Parenthood and expand access to Affordable Care Act plans, none of which seem linked to me in any fashion but which Reich feels are.

7.  Reinstate the ban on stock buybacks by corporations, which I don't think is a good idea.

8. Grant clemency to everyone on death row.  I'm not a fan of the death penalty so I simply won't comment on this one.

9. Reverse Trump's policies on DACA and refugees, which is a policy that really wasn't unique to Trump but in fact has its origins in the Obama Administration, although the direction taken during the Trump Administration was greatly amplified.

And

10.  Ban oil and gas drilling on public lands. Reich would really go after this in a major, major way.

How much of this will Biden do?  My guess is darned near all of it, or close to all of it.  Obviously at least one of these would have a major, major impact on the state's economy.  On the same topic, the Trump Administration issued drilling leases on the Alaska National Artic Refuge yesterday.

I strongly suspect that leases issued in the last two months are going to be the subject of some sort of claw back by the Biden Administration.

President Trump issued a large number of pardons yesterday.  Notables being pardoned included Steve Bannon.