Pondering the Post War World. . .hit and miss. . . the news of November 13, 1918.

On this mid week of 1918 (this paper was published on a Wednesday) the Wyoming State Tribune was pondering the post war world with some optimism.

Not all of which would prove warranted.

First we'll note, however, that the depiction of Germany's new borders was spot on, showing once again how remarkably accurate these World War One papers tended to be.  They weren't always, and this past week with rumors of the armistice arriving prematurely, and with additional rumors that Red German sailors who had in fact sabotaged their ships to some degree were going to come out fighting, they were off the mark more than a little. But by and large, they appear to be on in just about the same degree as modern papers tend to be.

But as to a post war economic boom. .  not so much.

In fact the end of the war brought on a mild recession that started this very year; 1918. That recession would continue on into 1919, when a recovery would be staged, but following that a severe recession hit in 1920 and lasted until 1921.  

Overall, both periods of recession were brief, and there were some oddities to them. The American recession of 1918 actually started in August, which is flat out bizarre when it is considered that the United States was really just getting fully committed to combat in the Great War at that time and that it was conscripting all the way through the end of the war, thereby creating labor shortages that were growing worse.  That a recession would hit should have been expected, but a rational expectation should have been that it would have hit in early 1919.  It didn't, and overall the first recession only lasted seven months.

The second much worse one hit in January 1920 and lasted until 1921. That one makes much more sense if we keep in mind that while the fighting ended, the war technically went on into 1919 and the United States continued to maintain and supply a large overseas army that was on occupation duty that entire time.  Indeed, combat troops finally left Europe in September 1919 but an occupation force of 16,000 U.S. troops based out of Coblenz remained in Germany until 1923.  And somewhat forgotten, while the fighting had ended in France and Belgium, it continued on in Russia where a U.S. commitment remained until fully withdrawn on April 1, 1920. 

Of course, this has an expression in what we was called the Jazz Age.  No era of any kind every has a clean break from one to another, but in this case the effects of the war in various ways lingered through the first recession until the lid really came off and the post war world set in which gave us the Roaring Twenties/Jazz Age, which continued on until the crash of October 1929.  The Jazz Age, in a lot of ways, was the preamble to the 1960s, brought to an abrupt end by the economic realities of the Great War.

In Wyoming, as is so often the case, the national economy didn't really follow the path of the national one.  The oil boom of the Great War came to a screeching halt with the end of the war.  Oil production and refining of course went on, and the conversion of Casper Wyoming from a minor oil town into a significant oil city, was permanent.  But a local recession was inevitable with the end of the war.

Amplifying that recession was a general recession in the agricultural sector as a whole.  Massive demands for meat, wool, leather, and grain came to a rapid end, and with it came an agricultural depression that lasted through the economic recovery and on into the next recession.  1919, in fact, was the last year in American history in which farm families shared economic parity with urban families.

So the paper got that one wrong.  But its map of post war Germany was quite right.  The rest of the new European map had yet to be worked out through the process of the Versailles Treaty and local effort in new nations, to include the effort of new wears that erupted following the collapse of empires in the Great War, but that process was going on at the very time this paper was printed.

Holland didn't really treat the deposed Kaiser Wilhelm II like any other interned German officer.  He became a permanent exiled resident who never did come to see his removal as justified or his actions as questionable.  He'd die there during World War Two.

And while the paper gave a positive prognosis on the news that Theodore Roosevelt was in the hospital but would recover, the old lion wasn't himself anymore.