August 20, 2022
Hard to believe that we're up to the 12th installment of this thread.
And for many, it's hard to believe that this is a "race". Indeed, for many, for that matter most, of the elected positions in the state, the race is over, with the Republican Primary having determined the winner.
Which is a tragedy for multiple reasons.
Democracy can't really survive in a one party state atmosphere is the primary one, and that's sort of what we have right now. Indeed, rather than one party, which is what we at least facially have, we'd be better off, in terms of elections to have no parties at all, which would be simple enough to do. I've noted it before, but there's really no good reason for party affiliation to take on a semi governmental function, as it has. A case can even be made that it's unconstitutional. Rather, the primary could, and in my view should, simply weed out the lesser candidates so the contest goes on in the fall. If we did that, for example, quite a few of the legislative races that were seemingly decided would be going on to the Fall election, and some of the big statewide races, such as that for Secretary of State, would be down to two candidates.
Another reason it's bad, however, is that it creates the oddity of polarization within the parties themselves, which is occurring in a major way inside the GOP, but which gets sorted out, at least partially, in a non-democratic way. The GOP's central leadership right now, for instance, has been heavily at odds with the leadership in Natrona and Laramie County, with the result being that those two counties, the most populous in the state, have been pretty much sidelined.
This latter feature, I'd note, is a common one for one party systems. Mexico's PRI, for instance, had very conservative and very radically left elements, all within one party. The Soviet Union's Communist party had factions within it. Other examples abound, but the point is that in such systems factions, as George Washington termed them, develop anyhow, but the means of determining who comes out on top is not decided at the ballot box. As we are, of course, a democratic system, they do still get partially sorted out by the voters, but only partially. Most voters have little participation at all with party organizations, if they are in a party at all.
Let's now look at the "races"
United States House of Representatives
Republican Party
As everyone on the entire globe knows, former Cheney supporter Harriet Hageman played Brutus to Cheney's Caesar in the general election.
Et tu, Harriet?
She now goes on to the general election as the overwhelmingly favored candidate. So much so, that she's basically being treated as though she is already elected, which she is not.
We'll address this below, but in order to leap over the top of her former political friend, Hageman boarded the "Trump Train" and acted as his stalking horse. While this seems likely to propel her into the halls of Congress, it also means that Wyoming is going to the bottom of the barrel in the upcoming Congress. If the Republicans regain the House, it means that Hageman will be part of a right wing crowd that will basically be directed by Trump, through Kevin McCarthy. If the Democrats retain control, which is becoming an increasing likelihood, Hageman will have no voice at all.
Not that this seems to matter in the contemporary Congress. The GOP has marginalized itself in this session in hopes of regaining power via Trump. The problem they'll face with that, rather obviously, is they'll be completely indebted to him.
This is raising the issue of whether the GOP of earlier decades is essentially dead, and is now a new type of party, and indeed not the old party at all. Increasingly, this looks like it is in fact the case.1
Democratic Party.
Lynette Gray Bull, who pulled in an impressive performance in the 2020 general election when she ran against Cheney, when put in context (25%) comes back for a second crack at the bat.
Gray Bull, is of Sioux and Arapaho lineage and a resident of the Wind River Indian Reservation, faces long odds, but frankly they may be better this year than last, even though she's a dark horse candidate. Horrified Democrats and Independents, many of whom switched to the GOP to vote for Cheney, will likely roll back to the Democratic Party and vote for Gray Bull. Self-satisfied Republicans, feeling their work is done in the election, may not bother to go to the polls in November. Added to that, horrified Republicans, of which there is a fair number, may go over to Gray Bull on democratic principles, seeing as Hageman is fully invested at the present time as an anti-democratic Christian Nationalist candidate.2
It's been noted that Hageman is really an establishment Republican, but a legitimate question at this point is whether she used to be an establishment Republican and no longer is, or whether the establishment Republicans, including Hageman, have been so duped that there's really no escaping for them. Either situation is more likely that Hageman and the GOP reemerging the party that it once was. I'm not as optimistic as former legislator Tim Stubson is on this score.
Anyhow, some Republicans will vote for Gray Bull as a protest. Some will vote for her on democratic principles. If she took 25% of the vote in 2020, which she did, and Democrats and Independents come out in strength this go around, that alone ought to take her to 30%, which is far below what she would need to win, of course.
However, the gap to winning, an added 20%, isn't really all that much. Hageman, this year, took about 70% of the vote. Of the 30% that voted against her, the question is how many are really upset Republicans.
Operating against this is that Gray Bull is very liberal on social issues, which may cause Republicans to hold their noses and vote for Hageman in spite of their disgust, or to just not vote at all.
Governor
Republican
This race really is over. Mark Gordon won.
Democrat
Theresa Livingston, a former employee of the BLM from Worland won the Democratic primary, but it really doesn't matter.
Secretary of State
Republican
In an upset, Chuck Gray, who has only been in the state for a decade, and who has plenty of strikes against him as a candidate for this office, won due to being the Trump backed far right Christian Nationalist candidate.
Gray, who wasn't universally popular in the legislature, focused on bogus election concerns in his campaign. It's deuce difficult to figure out how the voters thought he was qualified for this office, but he has it.
Democrat
631 Democratic write in votes were cast in the primary for Secretary of State, but that doesn't mean that any of the people written in will advance to the general. If any of them did, unless they're a very surprising candidate, they're going nowhere.
State Treasurer
Republican
Curt Meier won the GOP nomination for a second term.
Democrat
Nobody ran in the Democratic primary. A little over 400 write votes were cast, but once again, it's highly unlikely that any of the write-ins will run, and even more unlikely they would win if they did.
State Auditor
Kristi Racines took this race in the Republican primary, and she seems to be the only candidate in the state that everyone likes.
Superintendent of Public Instruction
Republican
This race saw Delgenfelder beat out recently appointed Schroeder, who was not a popular choice, for this position. This race bucked the hard right trend.
Democrat
Sergio Maldonado advances to the primary as the Democratic candidate, where he was running unopposed. Maldonado is a member of the Northern Arapaho tribe as well as being a Hispanic, so he joins Gray Bull in being in the category of the rare minority running for office. He has a long career in education and has been endorsed by the Wyoming Education Association, one of the few powerful unions in Wyoming.
Other Races
I don't try to cover all the legislative and county races, as I don't know a lot about them as a rule. I'll cover a few here, just as they're of some interest. I'm going to do that, however, in summary form.
The Natrona County Assessors race has proven interesting as incumbent assessor, serving his first term, Matt Keating, lost to Linda Saulsbury. Saulsbury had been an appointed assessor who filled out her popular predecessor's term, but ran into trouble with the staff she inherited. Keating took advantage of that in his race, but Keating has proven to be an unpopular assessor in the county, and Saulsbury took advantage of that.
What probably wasn't obvious to county residents was that assessors statewide ran into a state mandate to correct their undervalued assessments, which was part of a state drive to address budget shortfalls statewide. Be that as it may, Keating's bedside manner on the topic was awful, and this was far from apparent. Late in the race he began to try to point this out, and also took the position that the elevated tax levels could be dropped by municipalities choosing not to impose their full mill levies, a position that would be untenable for the municipalities as it would disqualify them for Federal grants. Three years running of tax challenges due to sometimes bizarrely changed assessments caused people to have enough, and it's been obvious for months that Keating was going to go down in the primary.
What might not have been expected, however, is that he'd take county commissioners out with him as collateral damage. Several challengers campaigned on the commissioners not being able to address this situation, which legally they really can't. Nonetheless, one long serving commissioner fell for the two-year seat and another for the four-year seat. One previously elected commissioners survived to run in November, but he polled the lowest among the survivors and will be joined in the race by a Democratic challenger. It's very far from obvious that he will survive the challenge.
An interesting aspect of this is that, while it was not obvious at the time, the Natrona County Commission was one of the first local bodies in the county to show the rightward tilt of the GOP, having elected a couple of right leaning commissioners in prior years and having one who was able to tilt that way at least in appearance. Now two of them are gone, and a third who was previously a City of Casper Councilman who had fallen in a city election is gone as well. Chances are good that a third will fall. This will leave with the council with new members who are bucking the rightward drift (rush?) trend and should cause the remaining right wing member some concern. At the broken edge of the bottle, the same voters who voted in the county for Gray and Hageman have basically rejected a hands-off approach and voted for a sharply more activist, and indeed activist that will disregard the law, approach. This is interesting in that in the end, Wyoming elections slowly drift towards being like Canadian ones to some degree, with people voting their pocket books.
If all the "less government", "no Federal money" Republicans get their way in the legislature, Wyoming would actually be looking at sharply reduced Federal funds and such grim tasks as paying for our own highways, something we can't do and don't want to try.
August 22, 2022
According to Fremont County Senator Cale Case, a traditional Wyoming Republican conservative, there's an effort being made to find an independent to mount a write-in campaign against Republican Secretary of State nominee Chuck Gray. Nobody has yet been identified to make the attempt.
In order to run on the general ballot as an independent a little over 5,000 signatures would have to be filed with the Secretary of State's office by August 31. That seems rather unlikely.
That wouldn't keep anyone from running a write in campaign, but that's an even more difficult proposition.
Independents do not have a history of electoral success in Wyoming and while Gray is controversial, such a person would face long odds.
August 23, 2022
A press report indicates that a lot of Republicans in the recent race did not vote down ballot.
For instance, 14,000 Republicans did not cast a Secretary of State vote.
This likely explains the hard right turn to some degree. Voters turning out to vote against Cheney out of Trump loyalty likely amounted to a disproportionate percentage of primary voters.
August 23, cont.
In a really unusual turn of events, Cale Case was mounting an effort to draft former legislator Nathan Winters for a run at the Secretary of State's office even though Winter didn't consent. Today the current Secretary of State determined that a potential candidate had to sign off on the effort, which ended this draft campaign.
At the same time, according to the Trib, Republicans are urging Tim or Susan Stubson to run as an independant.
August 28, 2022
The director of communications and policy at the Secretary of State's office has resigned as she does not wish to work for Chuck Gray, who has called into question the work of the office through his assertions that something was wrong with the Wyoming election.
It's beyond question that the Wyoming election was well run and there was no fraud, none of which has kept Gray from running around pretending like something needs to be done to shore up Wyoming's elections. In the words of the resigning individual:
He’s called into question the integrity of this office and now he’s going to run it, and yuck.
He has called into question the integrity of the office through his suggestions.
According to a post on Reddit, which therefore may be wild innuendo and dubious, rumors were circulating prior to the election that there'd be widespread resignations in the office if Gray was elected. That is, we'd note, purely a rumor. But now at least one person has resigned. Even if the rumor was true, however, people generally need their jobs and large scale registrations would be phenomenal.
Having said this, Gray himself may have had an inkling of this, as he said in an earlier PBS debate:
The insiders down there at the Capital, a lot of them don’t want things to improve, I’ve seen the Secretary of State staff work, and I do believe I can work with them towards getting this election integrity vision.
While not greatly familiar with the workings of the office itself, it is more likely than not is nearly self operating with professionals no matter who is in office which means that more likely than not, the only thing the Secretary of State really needs to do is set wider policy. If Gray doesn't lose most of the staff, he can likely spend four years on his "election integrity vision" and not really mess up the work of the office. That would leave him, as he likely knows, a springboard to attempt to become Governor if Gordon does not run for a third term, which he may well do knowing that if he doesn't, the office may fall to the hard right, assuming, which is not a safe assumption, that politics hasn't moved on in the meantime.
If, and it's only an if, and not very likely, Gray faced a large-scale office revolt, however, he may find himself in the same position as Cindy Hill was, who at some point really wasn't able to deal with an office that was in open revolt against her.
August 30, 2022
The write-in deadline fell yesterday, with nobody filing with signatures to run against Chuck Gray, as some had hoped. There were write in candidates certified, however, for several of the legislative races.
August 31, 2022
Secretary of State Ed Buchanan will assume the judgeship he was appointed to in mid-September, and step
down from his current position at that time. This means an interim Secretary of State will be appointed to oversee this year's election.
September 1, 2022
The race was to fill the seat of the deceased Don Young, so the position is, obviously, pretty temporary, but presumably gives Peltola an edge as the incumbent in November.
The race was notable for several reasons, including that Peltola, who is Yup’ik, will become the first Native Alaskan Congressman. But more than that, it's the first ranked choice election in Alaska's history, the system, which disregards party, having just been adopted by Alaska's voters.
A bill in a Wyoming legislative committee proposes to adopt the same system, which is more democratic than the party primary system the state now has. This result would suggest that when unrestrained by party, voters will in fact cast a a wider net.
Defeated Sarah Palin complained about the new system in the election itself, and railed against it after being defeated.
September 6, 2022
The Wyoming GOP, noting that if he leaves on September 15 as he has indicated that he will it will mean that his appointed successor shall have mere weeks to prepare for administering the General Election, has asked Ed Buchanan to remain in office to the end of his term.
In this context, that is not an unreasonable request and, indeed, this should have been taken into account as soon as he indicated that he was pursuing a judgeship.
September 7, 2022
Secretary of State Buchanan declined the GOP's request.
I'm frankly surprised, and I also frankly think this entire episode has not been well thought out.
September 10, 2022
United States House of Representatives
Republican Party
Harriet Hageman. Hageman is the Trump endorsed flag bearer for the those who felt that Cheney betrayed the state by not getting on the Trump train. She'll go into the race with more wild far right GOP populist enthusiasm, more moderate GOP contempt and more inflated expectations of any candidate in the state's history.
Democratic Party.
Lynette Gray Bull, who pulled in an impressive performance in the 2020 general election when she ran against Cheney, when put in context (25%) comes back for a second crack at the bat, as a darkhorse candidate, but with better odds this time than previously as she'll secure a fair number of disgruntled Republicans and horrified independents.
Constitution Party
Melissa Selvig, who ran on the Republican ticket to the far right before correctly assessing her ticket as doomed, has signed up for a doomed effort as the Constitution Party's candidate for the House.
Independent
Casey Hardison is a gadfly candidate who is also running for the President of the United States in 2024 for the Democratic Republican Party. A chemist, he has a series of drug convictions.
September 13, 2022
Senator Cale Case will be the subject of a censure vote by the Republican Central Committee, which will also ask him to drop his Republican affiliation.
Republicans across Wyoming correctly see Zwonitzer’s and (Case’s) effort for what it is — a couple of big-government insiders who are shamelessly ignoring the will of voters and our right to have our elected officials represent us.
Footnotes:
1. See:
Fromer legislator Stubson's position on this is very admirable and he's been an outspoken champion of Cheney this election cycle, but he supported Ted Cruz in the Cruz campaign, which is some ways was a portent of things to come. As a legislator, he also supported the study bill that was to look at trying to get the Federal lands transferred to Wyoming, which also fits in to the far right list of ticket items. He is not in that camp, but this illustrates in a way how we slid down this slippery slope.
Former Speaker of the House in Wyoming Tom Lubnau very much saw this coming and tried to warn everyone to no avail.
2. It can certainly be debated whether or not Hageman really is a Christian Nationalist, which is not the same thing, we'd note, as being a Christian or observant Christian. Rather, it's the theme that the GOP is leaning heavily into.
We dealt with the rising phenomenon of Christian Nationalism recently, but the definition of the movement is becoming much clearer. We'll expand on that shortly.
Last Prior Edition
