Coal Trends

We ran this item back in 2017:

Coal: Understanding the time line of an industry

  
Me, third from right, when I thought I had a career in geology, and probably in coal.

And we ran this one yesterday:

Playing Political Football With Oil In Colorado.

The Tribune ran this article on the cover of its Sunday edition:

Wyoming coal is likely declining faster than expected

That article included this statement:

The idea that coal would slowly decline, partly buoyed up by the results of carbon research, and just maybe an export avenue to buyers in the Pacific Rim, took hold. Wyoming made its peace with the idea that coal’s best years were likely behind her, but that a more modest future for Wyoming coal, with manageable losses over time, was also likely.

That may not be the case.

“The degradation of the basin is accelerating and we never thought that would happen,” said Sen. Michael Von Flatern, R-Gillette. “We didn’t see that happening.”

I did.

Having been a geologist, in the sense that I studied geology, and then entered the field at a bad time to do it, and also having always had an analytical mind (according to the Casper College history professor who gave me the idea of becoming a lawyer), and being a deep student of history, this seemed pretty obvious to me, and I so stated that in my 2017 item.

Also in the Sunday Tribune is this op-ed:

LeResche: Is Wyoming the next Appalachia?

Nah.

Now, headline aside, the author that article voiced this opinion:

The pattern evident in these past events is very troubling. Wyoming’s state and local governments need to connect the dots and set a course to somehow better control the entities that so greatly affect our workers and communities. It is vitally important that the state and county governments participate early and aggressively in bankruptcy proceedings to ensure that workers’ rights, fair payments for public services delivered and assurance of mine clean-up are protected. And it’s important that all government entities carefully vet outsiders with development schemes that seem too good to be true. We must not become a feeding ground for grifters and vulture capitalists who would leave Wyoming taxpayers on the hook for clean-up and reclamation costs.

And we certainly can't disagree with that.

These are interesting times in the extractive industries.  I recently wrote a part one of two item for which I haven't gotten around to the second part yet that pondered what it would mean to Wyoming's economy should coal and gas use decline.  Right now, there seems to be no petroleum collapse on the immediate horizon, but there are reasons to be concerned and planning.  For the immediate short term, however, based on what's going on in our neighbor to to the south, we probably ought to be planning for increased oil exploration beyond that which we were already planning for.

And we should make no mistake.  Petroleum oil is a much more necessary product than coal is.  Even if we were able to cease use petroleum as a fuel tomorrow, petrochemicals would still remain vital in innumerable ways. That is going to keep on keeping on, no matter what.  And given its chemical nature, petroleum oil is a substance that's much easier to modify in ways that adjust to changing times than coal is.

Prior to the American Civil War, there was a common thought in the South that the Union could never really force a change in slavery in the South as the North couldn't get along without cotton.  The Civil War showed immediately that it could, and an economy that was based on a single product helped drive the South down into defeat.  I'm not saying that this analogy is directly comparable to things in Wyoming, but during the past decade people have repeatedly stated that not only would coal return, but it'd return in force, bigger than it was.  It's pretty clear that isn't going to happen.  Pinning hopes on foreign exports and the like may prove to just be forlorn hopes and people need to plan around that being the case.

And ignoring the signs of external change are dangerous.  Humans are notoriously poor at predicting the future but there are things that should be considered.  We may be predicting inaccurately again, but failing to plan is hazardous.