Monday, December 16, 2019

The 2020 Election, Part 4

"The election is only one year from today".



"Only"?

That's the comment I heard on the news this morning, and my reaction, and that's why we've started a new thread here even though the last one wasn't at that stage where we'd normally go to the next installment.

The campaign has being going on for months and there's still a year to go. Frankly, that's patently absurd.

Canada recently had a national election that featured a campaign of about sixty days. That's just about right.  An election process that takes over a year to complete is monumentally messed up.  No regular person is paying that much attention at this stage and that means that the only ones who are, are political aficionados who likely don't reflect the views of average voters at all.

This isn't all of it of course.  But it doesn't help.  By this time we will have had an election, but we will also have had endless primaries, caucuses, and conventions.  Congress will go in and out of session as will the Supreme Court.  The House will have voted to impeach the President and the Senate will vote to keep him in office.  Quite a few voters who voted in the early primary seasons will be dead by the election itself, and new voters who vote in the general election will not have been old enough to have voted in the primary.  Pundits are fond of saying that tradition is the vote of the dead, but in this system, the vote of the dead actually is the vote of the dead.

November 4, 2020.

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Yesterday came the news that Michael Bloomberg is filing to run as a Democratic candidate for the Presidency in Alabama.

This is more in the nature of preserving his options than anything else.  Alabama has an absurdly early deadline to file to run for the office.  As I've noted before, the entire country would be better off if this entire process only had a 90 day lead into the General Election, rather than a year long one. Anyhow, Bloomberg has to file there if he intends to run anywhere.  It doesn't mean he will run.

It also doesn't mean he won't and he's obviously thinking about it.

If he does, it'll be a real symbol of what's currently wrong with American politics.  Bloomberg is 77 years old and yet another East Coast candidate.

Just a week or so ago a 25 year old New Zealand politician noting the average age of House of Commons members there in a speech was heckled by an older politician and suddenly became famous when she dismissed the heckling seamlessly with a "OK Boomer" retort.  That action has shocked members of the Baby Boom generation, and no wonder given that they have such a death grip on American politics.  The average age of the U.S. House of Representatives is 58 years of age, and the Senate 62 years of age.  The average age of the top contenders for the Presidency right now has to be in the 70s.  The last thing the Democrats need is another candidate whose political concepts were cast in the 1960s.

Indeed, my prediction is that if Bloomberg runs, the temptation for Hilary Clinton to run will become overwhelming.  Bloomberg's candidacy only makes sense in any fashion if Biden is crashing towards a failure, assuming that Bloomberg isn't wholly delusional about his chances of success and assuming that he's not willing to drag the entire party down in order to make whatever point he's seeking to make.  Assuming that those items are not the case, a Clinton run actually makes more sense than a Bloomberg one, and she'll know that.

November 8, 2019

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Americans today will experience something they haven't since the early 1990s, that being live televised impeachment proceedings.  Indeed, they'll actually experience something they've never experienced to the extent these will, which is live electronic media impeachment proceedings.

As noted above, there's now less than one year before the General Election and its difficult to imagine Congress really doing anything rapidly.  How long these will go on isn't clear to the author, but we're in the tail end of 2019 now, and even if Congress moves with blistering speed, nothing is really going to get done prior to the end of the year. Assuming that Congress moves forward really quickly, and assuming that there's a party line vote, that would mean that the Senate might have an Impeachment Trial on its plate in very early 2020.

Whether the Senate moves quickly is another matter. Both sets of proceedings risk being turned into circuses of a sort, and the length of them might end up depending upon how long any one body feels that they obtain an advantage by doing that. Any way its looked at, however, it seems the results are basically clear right now.  The House will vote to impeach and the Senate will vote not to.

What isn't clear is how this will impact the overall election.  If there are real bombshells that come out during the proceedings, it might.  Having said that, so far nothing has really changed all that much in basic support in committed camps to date.  A real risk for the Democrats may be that the focus on this sort of thing has now run for a full three years and they're exposed to claims of having done nothing else.  Irrespective of how a person feels on that sort of claim, it's already starting to circulate and it makes a bad basis for anyone's Presidential campaign.

Those old enough to remember the Nixon impeachment in the 1970s will recall that there was an overall air of collapse at the time.  This was less true during the Clinton proceedings, but at that time there was a real feeling of political cynicism.  Both atmospheres stand to be much amplified this time.  That the country could go for a century between the first and second impeachment efforts, and then end up doing it three times in less than fifty years isn't a good development.

November 13, 2019

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Deval Patrick, formerly the Governor of Massachusetts, has entered the race as a Democratic candidate.

Patrick, age 63, is taking the late entry approach.  It'll be interesting to see if this works for him. Coming in now, he will receive attention at this late stage whereas many earlier former stars in the campaign have faded.  At age 63, while not young by normal calculations, he is in this race. He's generally a liberal candidate.

It's now strongly rumored that Hilary Clinton is in fact pondering running.  I think at this point she's likely decided to in fact run.  My guess is that a full Bloomberg announcement and a Clinton one will come shortly.

Clinton is unlikely to be any more successful in 2020 than previously, and I don't believe that she'll secure the nomination.  Her mere presence in the race, however, will hurt the Democrats overall. Bloomberg's will do the same.

November 14, 2019

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Not surprisingly, the weekend shows focused on the impeachment hearings.

One did have Deval Patrick on it, however, and the two I listed to both discussed him.  He's seen as a middle of the road, centrist, Democrat.  In that context, it was noted that the reelection of Louisiana's governor saw the reelection of a Democrat of the nearly extinct social conservative variety. There was quite a bit of speculation that the rank and file is searching for somebody in the middle.

Buttigeg has been rising in the polls in Iowa and there's lots of speculation that may be for the same reason.

Indeed, on the one news show that Patrick was interviewed on he came very close to being examined in a bit of a hostile way on Buttigeg. The suggestion from the while interviewer was, or at least seemed to be, if Patrick was trying to take that position as he realized that he was he was 1) black, and 2) not homosexual, and therefore more electable.  Patrick who probably understood that this was the point, nicely sidestepped it, and frankly the question shouldn't have been asked.

Indeed, Patrick interviewed extremely well in general.  He's clearly more personable than Buttigeg and frankly, if this interview is any guide, more personable than any other running Democrat.  He did miss the ball a bit when asked what the difference was between he and Buttigeg and while he did not that he had a variety of experiences that made him qualified for the Oval Office, he didn't contrast himself directly.  If he had, it would have to be noted that he's been the Governor of a major state, where as Buittigeg has only been the mayor of a mid sized city.

On the same general topic, over the weekend President Obama came out in a speech noting that Americans like improvement but they don't like radical overhaul. That's an arrow shot at the hard left of the Democratic Party.  It did hit home with at least one weekend show pundit who claimed, basically, that Obama was betraying his own past as he had been the radical candidate.  The evidence doesn't support that.

On candidates who don't have a uniformly radical past, Bloomberg, who has been in both parties (like Trump) in his past, disavowed his "stop and frisk" policy from his days as the Mayor of New York. That was controversial, but it was also quite successful, giving us an interesting example of a politician disavowing his own successful actions in the past when they don't fit his current political aims.

November 18, 2019

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I happened to listen (not view) a Democratic debate this season for the first time.

The reason is that Meet The Press had it on their podcast feed and I heard it there while driving somewhere.

It was quite interesting, in part because listening to it gives you a prospective on the prospective of the pundits.  Not too surprisingly, my takeaway was different from theirs.

I'll note that listening to a debate is different than viewing it, and that too can have an impact.  But the Press also tends to go into these debates with a preconceived narrative to a degree, so they're not that inclined to alter it no matter what's said, except around the margins.

Listening to it, it was frankly Andrew Yang who won the debate.  A person doesn't have to agree with everything he believes in order to say that.  He's the only one who had fresh views and didn't have difficulty explaining them.  His answer on national defense was brilliant. So much so that a later "major" candidate co-opted it for his own later answer.

Compared to Yang, everyone looked pretty anemic.  Having said that Buttigieg came across fairly well. An effort to go after his experience by Amy Klobuchar ended up simply embarrassing Klobuchar as Buttigieg dismantled her on that topic and then used  his answer to dismantle everyone else.  Buttigieg also manged to really disrupt a statement by Kamala Harris on none of the white candidates really being able to understand the position of black voters, even though Harris clearly had a point on that demographic being used repeatedly by the Democratic party.  Again, a person doesn't have to agree with Buttigieg on anything in order to see that his debating skills were superior to nearly every other candidate.

Harris came across as a snot and surprisingly relied on her courtroom history as a California district attorney in her closing, noting for most of her professional time she's done that and started off her public addresses with "the people of. . ."  That'd be true, but in a debate in which Corey Booker had just complained about how the government has incarcerated a lot of minorities on drug charges, Harris' former role in putting people in jail seems like an odd thing to emphasize.

Harris was big on "recreating the Obama coalition" without explaining it.  Indeed, the "Obama coalition" may not have really ever existed in the first place.  That emphasizes, however, that the Democratic base isn't anywhere near as left wing as candidates are and that caused hemorrhaging towards Trump in the last election.  It's already known that black voters are uncomfortable with Buttigieg and that the "black church" retains a significant role in that demographic which is likely grater than any other religious demographic in the Democratic party.

Indeed, Warren basically stated that there's no room whatsoever for Democrats like recently re-elected John Bel Edwards in the Democratic Party.  Edwards is pro life and and Warren made support for abortion a litmus test on the basis that its a human rights matter, an extremely weak argument for supporting a policy that ends human life.  Harris leaped on this and indicated that she'd codify Roe v Wade as a matter of Federal law, which isn't a position that many who hold the freedom of state's to craft their own laws will find popular.

While she was able to hardly get a word in, after the debate got rolling, Tulsi Gabbard may have been next to Yang in being clear and blunt.  Her post election role as a commentator and her strong animosity towards the Clintons resulted in a debate with Harris and she pretty much took Harris apart.  Indeed, Harris may have come across the worst in the debate as her answer for everything seems limited to snark.

In terms of ideas, again, like them or not, Yang's were the freshest and well thought out.  Buttigieg's seem thought out.  Klobuchar should have done well, as she does in other venues, but she just came across as angry.  Warren came across as a person whose ideas are limited to the concept that no matter what the problem is, large or small, she'd sick the Federal government on it with a super expensive program of dubious utility.  Indeed, she makes Lyndon Johnson's backing of the Great Society look minor in comparison to what she'd try.

In other news Bloomberg launched a gigantic ad campaign.  The This Week pundits made the interesting observation that he's not really a Democrat, and he's been in both parties.  His presence in the race this late is likely because Warren and Sanders are sinking and people are losing faith in Biden.  It's doubtful that Bloomberg will make a real difference in the race, however, no matter how much money he spends on it.

Bloomberg's entry means that, if we include both parties, there are now no less than three candidates who are old New Yorkers, Bloomberg (who was born in Massachusetts), Sanders (who grew up in New York and retains an extremely thick New York accent) and Trump.  It's hard to grasp, for those who live outside of New York how the state and city retain such a grasp on the nation's politics.

November 25, 2019

I've noted here before that a lot of the demographic assumptions that the Democratic Party has made for quite some time are likely based on a set of false assumptions.  The past week the degree to which that is true and becoming more true started to play out in the primary, all the detriment of Pete Buttigieg.

I noted above that Buttigieg had taken criticism from Kamala Harris and seemingly effectively parried it during the debate. That perception, however, may not have been shared by black voters at all.

Indeed a poll on Buttigieg's position in the upcoming Iowa primary not only showed him last among black voters, but actually at 0%. That's a stunningly low figure and shows that there's definitely going on in a demographic that the Democrats absolutely depend on.  Not only is Buttigieg dead in the water in the campaign if he can't fix that, and that will be hard to fix, but it shows that the party as a whole, may be in really deep trouble in regard to black voters.

We'll get back to that in a moment, but continuing this story on, early in the week a prior statement by Buttigieg surfaced in which he attributed a lack of black economic advancement basically to a lack of role models (I'm really condensing this down).  This resulted in an explosive op ed being published in which a black author not only went after him but in no uncertain terms.  That op ed was in turn rapidly circulated on the Internet and received widespread black voter applause.  Buttigieg reacted by calling the author who credited him with listening, which he said was he could expect a white person to do, showing a real lack of any hope for anyone paying attention to the issues raised.

All that's telling, but a poll that was released coincident with all of this finds that black Democrats are much more conservative, indeed on some issues outright conservative, than their white counterparts. They're also older, showing that the Democrats aren't attracting younger black voters.  That no doubt will stun the Democrats and my prediction is that they'll ignore it.  In the minds of party leadership black voters are in the hardcore left, and that's a view that tends to have been supported by the fact that black politicians who have risen up in the party have seemed to be of the left.

In reality, however, black voters are largely in the Democratic Party due to events that occurred in the 50s through the 80s.  Since that time the GOP has made nearly no effort to recruit black voters even though it knows it needs too.  Irrespective of that, what turns out to be the case is that the black demographic in the Democratic party tends to be conservative on social issues and liberal on economic ones. This is the classic position that pertains to immigrants, and in this sense they're effectively internal immigrants in their own country.

Not yet addressed, this same problem exists for the country's growing Hispanic demographic.  They're highly socially conservative and are only in the Democratic Party because of economic issues and the party's seeming position on immigration.

Up until now none of this has had an impact in a national election, but now for the first time it is. And this shows a trend that's played out with other voting blocks over time.  Once economic conditions are no longer paramount for a voting block, social ones tend to take over.  In the case of the black demographic economic conditions are still an extremely large concern, but social issues are now actually playing out.  And in addition to that Buttigieg, who is the son of an academic and lead what amounts to a very upper middle class, left wing, sheltered life, is showing a lack of understanding on the situation for American blacks that they are really reacting to.

My guess is that he won't be over to overcome this problem.  But beyond that, a person has to wonder if this is a tipping point and the Democratic Party will start to lose black voters.  If it does, at least right now they'll end up independents by and large, which is what actually seems to be happening with younger black voters.  In some rural regions, the Democrats are losing black voters to the GOP, although they seemingly haven't noticed this.  The Democratic Party has three candidates this year who are African Americans, with one being in much too soon to have really been heard from, but those candidates don't seem to be gaining much headway.  All of this may suggest that a voting block that the Democrats have depending on since at least the 1970s is being lost to them seemingly without their having noticed it.

November 28, 2019

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Kamala Harris, whose campaign never really took off, in spite of pundit expectation that it would, bowed out of the race yesterday.

Harris never seemed to really get rolling and instead came across as a younger candidate, in the American sense (age 55) who had promise but somehow never delivered.  Her most notable moments came when 1) she proposed clearly unconstitutional actions in regards to firearms and was debated down on the topic by Joe Biden; and 2) when she took Buttigieg to task in regard to his statements about his support of the black community.  Those latter statements may very well have impacted him as the following week he was the subject of an op ed that was blistering on the topic.

Harris was a prosecutor prior to becoming a politician and frankly, to some degree, that may have hurt her in the Democratic field.  She came across as snarky, something that lawyers can easily do if they've spent much time in the courtroom, and its hard to take a candidate very seriously about their support of the downtrodden if they've spent a career in that branch of the law.  She was from the hardcore left and her departure leaves the field somewhat more level.

Also departing the race is Montana's governor Steve Bullock (age 53). Bullock was a moderate who should have done well as a candidate from a state where he has to pull from all political spectrum.  His campaign, however never took off and he acknowledged that and withdrew in the face of the inevitable.

The Harris departure brought another politician into the Twitter spectrum when Washington Post reporter Matt Viser noted that now the only candidates who have qualified to appear in the next debate are Biden, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Sanders, Steyer and Warren.  Qualification is based on funds raised and therefore this doesn't reflect every Democrat running.  Yang and Booker, for example, are running.

Anyhow, Viser noted that this meant that while the field was "historically large and diverse" it is now all white.

This is interesting for a number of reasons.  For one thing, there's been a press obsession with the ethnicity of candidates that has actually operated to make it less diverse than it actually is.  Harris was regarded as black by the press, but that definition really hearkens back to the old Slave States definition of black as "one drop of blood".  In reality, her mother was of Tamil heritage and was born in Indian and who had Canadian and American citizenship.  Her father was from Jamaica.  Both parents had strong careers in academics.  Harris regarded herself, quite naturally, as black and Indian, but her ethnic heritage gives her a different ethnic heritage than most African Americans.  The press never really looked at this and simply regarded her as African American.  Corey Booker, on the other hand, has a more conventional African American heritage.

This none the less brings up a point which pundits seem to dance around.  While Harris expressly noted that she was "the only black candidate on the stage" last debate, her support among black voters was just slightly better than Buttigieg's, which is at a stunning 0%.  Harris may in fact have suffered i this area by claiming to be "black" when that status doesn't reflect the same sort of experience that the average African American would have.  White voters certainly aren't going to bring this up but African American voters have been highly savvy about things in the past.  They tend to very strong identify with candidates that they believe appreciate their circumstances and often don't worry about ethnicity when they vote as a result, preferring results over ethnicity.  Indeed, even in the segregation era black communities in the South would sometimes vote for white candidates that appeared to support segregation in a race, as they knew that their actual efforts in office would aid them.

This may have played into rock bottom black support for Harris in the race.  She was claiming to be black and does have Jamaican black heritage, but she's also half Tamil as well and her personal history diverges significantly from most African Americans.  As a former prosecutor, moreover, she has a history that most African Americans would have associated a lot more with problems in the system than with efforts to address them.

Booker's campaign is also faltering and signs exist that he'll be out of the race quite soon.  Earlier in the week he was begging for donations so that he could qualify for the next debate and that appears to have failed.  So far he is still in.  For some reason his campaign also has rock bottom support in his own ethnicity.  The reason for that is hard to grasp, but it may simply be because black voters don't regard him as somebody who will likely be effective.  It might also be, however, because his credentials haven't really impressed them so far.

An added aspect of this, however, ties into Buttigieg. All three of these candidates, Buttigieg, Book and Harris lacked support not only from black Democrats, but from Hispanic candidates as well. Again, this may simply be because minority voters identify with effectiveness over ethnicity, to their credit, but it may also be because the old reasons for these communities identifying with the Democratic Party are wearing off.  Combined with that, these communities contain social views that are much more conservative than the Democrats have been espousing in recent years.  This has been wholly ignored by the Democratic Party as a whole and minority Democratic candidates have very carefully aligned themselves with the seeming party platform in order to note loose white Democratic support. But a winnowing process seems to be going on, hardly noticed, in which, in spite of its claims to the contrary, the Democratic Party is becoming the WASP party.  It's presently hemorrhaging young black members as a result.

The remaining African American candidate, Deval Patrick, can't qualify for a debate yet as he just started running and hasn't obtained sufficient donations.  Of course, another new candidate who is extremely well self funded, Michael Bloomberg, can't qualify either.

Anyhow, Viser noted that while the field started large and diverse, only white candidates will be debating next go around, which isn't implicitly diverse.  Perhaps that's true, but it can't be said that Biden, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Sanders, Steyer and Warren are all stamped out of the same mold either in numerous ways.  Be that as it may, Liz Cheney took Viser's comments as the opportunity to comment on Twitter, about Warren; "What about Pocahontas"

What exactly would motivate a person to say a thing like we'd have to leave unanswered, but it wasn't a smart thing to do.  It drew floods of Twitter protests and it make Cheney look incentive.  Her point, no doubt, was to thrown stones at Warren for claiming to be a Native American, something Warren was being patently absurd in doing in the first place, but extreme claims from Warren seem to be her thing.  Being as its a storm on Twitter, it probably has already faded, but she should think twice before saying something like that again.

According to the Chicago Tribune Klobuchar is rising in the polls in Iowa.  The Democratic field is clearly shifting, if not actually getting smaller given that two have gotten out and two have gotten in, but it seems almost certain that Booker is out of the running and that Patrick and Bloomberg won't be successful in getting into it.  Given that, the candidates who will debate next time, Biden, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Sanders, Steyer and Warren, with perhaps also Yang, are those who are going to keep on keeping on until mid race.  Steyer's campaign has a lot of money but is not likely to go anywhere, and Yang has a lot of enthusiasm and originality but is not likely to go anywhere. So the really serious contenders appear to be Biden, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Sanders, and Warren.  The field has suddenly narrowed.

December 4, 2019

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Since typing the above out a couple of days ago I've now heard analysis on the element of race and the Democratic Party on multiple platforms, one that was recorded before I set out the above, but others after that.  It's interesting in part because I'm hearing my own analysis repeated back to me by pundits.

On that, I'm surprised that some pundits are surprised that black voters don't necessarily vote for a black candidate simply because the candidate is black.  I'm also surprised that some pundits are surprised that Hispanic voters don't vote for a black candidate on the basis that Hispanics are minorities (although my prediction is that their category as such will cease to be recognized within a generation as they go through the same process that the Italian and Irish "racial" minorities have in the past), and minorities "of color" will of course vote for a candidate of color, even if their ethnicity is considerably different in terms of heritage.

Some Democrats who were backing or running seem to have made those assumptions as well, and Corey Booker, who is of course still in the race, was loud in the press regarding Kamala Harris' departure on the issue, nearly claiming that black voters owed their votes to him or to Harris because they were black.  Of interest on Harris, I've since seen one post by an Indian American about how proud Harris made her, which brings up once again that while Harris campaigned as a black candidate, her claim to that status is a bit mixed as none of her ethnic heritage comported with the African American norm.  That shouldn't matter, but to some it seems to, and candidates themselves will seem to claim votes based on those claims.

Anyhow, most of the analysis is really close to what I already set out, with pundits rediscovering the really long held truths that: 1) African Americans place their votes with the candidate that they feel best realistically serves their interests, irrespective of that person's race; and 2) African American voters aren't necessarily as loyal to any political party as Democrats have tended to assume in recent years.

On the latter, one commentator, a liberal African American figure who appeared on Meet The Press went further and noted something that I've hinted at, but which he was much more blunt about.  Perhaps his status as an African American allowed him to take on a topic that others don't want to address as they don't want to tread the risky waters that accompany it, and I don't blame them. That had to deal with Buttigieg's almost total lack of support among black and Hispanic voters.

That commentator flat out brought up that Buttigieg has trouble with black voters, and Hispanic voters, as they are "conservative morally", by which he meant that the two demographics do not share the WASP acceptance of homosexual conduct as a moral nullity.  That fact has been a somewhat loudly whispered truth for awhile, but it probably does take a black liberal to openly state it.  He did, and then went on to state that the Republicans are missing a bet as they don't exploit the social conservatism of African Americans and Hispanics.

In stating that he's correct.  The GOP has not known how to address this in recent years and has basically done nothing much more than to note that the Democratic Party simply depends upon black voters without actually assisting them much.  The recent departure of Harris from the race may be a good example of that as Harris was really pronounced on traditional Democratic hard left issues, but none of those directly address black and Hispanic concerns and one of her open positions, her position in regards to abortion, runs directly contrary to a view held by large numbers of Hispanic voters and isn't really all that popular with black voters.  This tends to show that, as previously noted, black and Hispanic support of the Democrats has been for economic reasons and, in regards to Hispanics, because the GOP has been perceived as hostile to Hispanics.

In spite of all of that, the fact that things were beginning to change in this are should have been evident in the 2016 race.  During that race the GOP had two Hispanic contenders who remained in the running for a very long time and one black candidate who did fairly well early on.  Comparing that to the 2020 race, none of the Democratic minority candidates have done well at all.  The one who is likely to remain in the race the longest, Yang, is able to do so due to his unique positions and self funding, but whether fairly or not Asian Americans are regarded as having been more fully assimilated into the nation as a whole than other minorities.

At any rate, the fact that the Republicans did have serious minority candidates who didn't campaign on their ethnicity should be worrying to the Democrats as it signals something going on at the street level.  The GOP is beginning to have conservative black candidates at the state level, which means that the Democrats are now hemorrhaging some voters who had been in the GOP over social issues.  And the GOP has picked up one entire Hispanic demographic, Cuban Americans, and there are starting to be inroads into other Hispanic demographics. As the Hispanic economic situation improves the social issues will start to rise, and even such notable left wing Hispanic figures of the past have voiced some very conservative social views openly.  As Hispanics, moreover, begin to assimilate into Middle America, and they are doing so now, this will accelerate.

The irony this presents is that in this cycle the Democrats are leaping leftward, and they can probably at least safely do so as President Trump has the pretty united opposition of both African Americans and Hispanics.  But at the same time Democrats who for years and years have pointed out with glee that the GOP has a demographic problem are now pointing out that the Democratic Party also has a demographic problem.

December 6, 2019

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Yesterday Finland sat a new Prime Minister.

What, you may legitimately ask, does this have to do with the United States and its election?

Well, perhaps this.

All three of the contenders from Finland's major political parties for this position were under 35.  The government, formed by Social Democrat Sanna Marin, has five women at its head, as a coalition government, four of whom are under 35 years of age. Marin is 34.  She replaces outgoing Social Democrat Anitti Rinne who is 55.

The point?

Well the point isn't that I'm endorsing the Finnish Social Democrats, with whom I have a lot of disagreement.  The point isn't even that I'm endorsing any Finnish political party, all of whom I probably have a lot of disagreement with.  Indeed, Finland shares the Nordic peculiarity, even though the Finns aren't actually a Scandinavian people (save for the minority Swedish population) of seeming political goofiness in recent years.

Rather, I'm noting the stark contrast in ages that the leaders of some other democracies exhibit in contrast to ours.

Indeed, in the current election, as noted before, we're actually fielding potentially the absolute oldest field of candidates of all time.  Donald Trump is the oldest President in his first term ever.  If reelected he'll be the oldest President to be reelected and if he's defeated there's an outstanding chance that whoever replaces him, in the current slate, will then become the oldest President to have been elected to the office.

Prior to Donald Trump, no American President was elected to a first term who was in his  70s.  Now, three of the Democratic top contenders are in their 70s.  Bernie Sanders will actually be 79 years old by the election next year.  Trump will be 74.  Elizabeth Warren will be 71.

What does this argue or indicate?  Probably nothing much more than the first grasp of the Baby Boomer generation on the nation's politics and culture.  Of the nation's 45 presidents, only 11 have been over their 50s when they assumed the office. Granted, that's roughly 1/4, but it's also the case that some who  assumed the office in real times of crisis were much younger.  Franklin Roosevelt was 51.  Abraham Lincoln was 52.  George Washington was 57.

Is this significant?  At least in some senses, it must be.

December 10, 2019

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Bernie Sanders has reacted with outrage to Major League Baseball's proposal to cut 42 minor league teams.  Indeed, he wrote the commissioner of baseball about it and posted as much on his twitter feed.  On the latter, he took an economic, and social justice, point of view, stating:
This has nothing to do with what's good for baseball and everything to do with greed. 

It would destroy thousands of jobs and devastate local economies.
One of the teams slated for the axe, we'd note, is the Vermont Lake Monsters.

Champs, mascot of the Vermont Lake Monsters, a minor league team slated for removal by MLB.  From wikipedia commons and listed as public domain.

December 16, 2019


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The 2020 Election, Part 1

The 2020 Election, Part 2

The 2020 Election, Part 3

Lex Anteinternet: I've found it hard to get too worked up about the ...

firing of Laurie Nichols as the President of the University of Wyoming in a post that started off stating:
Lex Anteinternet: I've found it hard to get too worked up about the ...: and I'm not sure why. I probably ought to be concerned, as something is going on and I'm completely clueless about it. As the s...
I'm still not all that worked up about it for some reason, even though in my earlier posted I noted:
Well, at any rate, the Trustees really do owe the state, and Nichols, an explanation.  There's some reason for their decision, even if its trivial, and as the state only has one four year university, they should let us know what it is.
Now something really interesting has happened.

The press has gone after a confidential file regarding Nichol's release. And opposing the release of that information is. . . Nichols.

Nichols states she has no idea what is in the information, but she doesn't want it released as she doesn't want, her attorney claims, any chance that it gets bounced around in the press and her name in tarnished.  Her attorney stated in a brief before the court on that, according to the Tribune;
“Nichols doesn’t even know what the records say or why they were gathered. . .  adding that Nichols “assumed the worst” in terms of what records were at stake. “Thus, any release would subject her to a potential trial and lynching.”
She's quite right.

Not so says the lawyer who is representing the press.  He noted:
“I’m assuming she’s saying a media trial and lynching. . .  That takes a dim view of the public in my mind. ... Members of the public could in fact be very sympathetic to her and supportive of her if they think that these are bogus reasons [for her demotion] and that the board didn’t act as they should.”
Oh leave the poor woman alone.  If she doesn't want the reasons made public, it was her job.  Respect her wishes and move on.

This doesn't have anything, of course, to do with the law.  But then maybe in this era of hyper rumorization, the law ought to be a bit modified.  If there is a right to privacy, maybe even for public figures, it trumps the public's right to know in some instances.

Sunday, December 15, 2019

December 15, 1919. No peace, no booze. Colorado approves the 19th Amendment.

The United States Supreme Court, on this day, made it plane.

No peace, no booze.


Of course, the reprieve that striking down provisions of the war time prohibition bill, which was always subject to questions about what it really applied to, would have been temporary anyhow  Nationwide prohibition was coming in next month with the application of the Volstead Act.  And many states, Wyoming and Colorado included, had voted in state prohibition anyhow.


The written opinion would actually be released the following day, Decmeber 16, and find that the prohibition authority was valid under Congress' war powers. The text of the short opinion was as follows:

Hamilton v. Kentucky Distilleries & Warehouse Co., 251 U.S. 146 (1919)
Hamilton v. Kentucky Distilleries & Warehouse Company
No. 589, 602
Argued November 20, 1919
Decided December 16, 1919
251 U.S. 146
Syllabus
The power to prohibit the liquor traffic as a means of increasing war efficiency is part of the war power of Congress, and its exercise without providing for compensation is no more limited by the Fifth Amendment than a like exercise of a state's police power would be limited by the Fourteenth Amendment. P. 251 U. S. 164.
The War-Time Prohibition Act, approved ten days after the armistice with Germany was signed, Act of November 21, 1918, c. 212, 40 Stat. 1046, provided:
"That after June thirtieth, nineteen hundred and nineteen, until the conclusion of the present war and thereafter until the termination of demobilization, the date of which hall be determined and proclaimed by the President of the United States, for the purpose of conserving the manpower of the Nation, and to increase efficiency in the production of arms, munitions, ships, food, and clothing for the Army and Navy, it shall be unlawful to sell for beverage purposes any distilled spirits, and during said time no distilled spirits held in bond shall be removed therefrom for beverage purposes except for export."
Held, in respect of liquors in bond, even if belonging to one who made and owned them before the act was passed and paid revenue taxes upon them since June 30, 1919:

(1) That the act was not an appropriation of such liquors for public purposes. P. 251 U. S. 157.
(2) That the time allowed for disposing of all liquors in bond on November 21, 1918, could not be declared unreasonable as a matter of law, even if they were not sufficiently ripened or aged to be disposed of advantageously during the period limited. P. 251 U. S. 158.
(3) That the prohibition was not in violation of the Fifth Amendment as a taking of property without compensation. P. 251 U. S. 157.
(4) That it was within the war power when passed (notwithstanding the cessation of hostilities under the armistice) as a means of war efficiency and for the support and care of the Army and Navy during demobilization. P. 251 U. S. 158.
A wide latitude of discretion must be accorded to Congress in the exercise of the war powers.
The court cannot inquire into the motives of Congress, in determining the validity of its acts, or into the wisdom of the legislation, nor pass upon the necessity for the exercise of a power possessed. 

It is settled that the war power carries with it the power to guard against immediate renewal of the conflict and to remedy the evils which have arisen from its rise and progress. Id.
Assuming that the continuing validity of an act passed under the war power may depend not upon the existence of a technical state of war, terminable only with the ratification of a treaty of peace or by a proclamation of peace, but upon some actual war emergency or necessity, the Court cannot say that the necessity for the prohibition had ceased when these suits were begun in view of the facts that the treaty of peace has not been concluded, that various war activities -- among them, national control of railroads -- continue, and that the manpower of the nation has not been completely restored to a peace footing.
The Eighteenth Amendment did not operate to repeal the War-Time Prohibition Act.
In defining the period of the prohibition, Congress, in the War-Time Prohibition Act, doubtless expecting that the war would be definitely ended by a peace under a ratified treaty or a proclamation before demobilization was complete, intended that the prohibition should continue until the date of the termination of demobilization had been definitely ascertained by the President and made known by him through a proclamation to that end.
The reference to the "demobilization of the army and navy" in the President's message communicating his veto of the National Prohibition Act, is not the proclamation required by the War-Time Prohibition Act.
In an exact sense, demobilization had not terminated then or when these suits were begun, as shown by the report on the subject of the Secretary of War, made to the President and transmitted to Congress; nor does it appear that it has yet so terminated.
There was good news for some Americans being held by Pancho Villa, they were let go.

And there was good news for women voters in Colorado as Colorado ratified the 19th Amendment, the last state to do so in 1919, and over a month before Wyoming, where women could already vote, did so.  Wyoming's Gov. Robert Carey would have had to call a special election in order to achieve this, which he repeatedly indicated he would not do.

The Non Partisan League, which put out the paper The Nonpartisan Leader, put out its December issue, featuring a rather over the top view of farmers.


The NPL was a semi socialist branch of the Republican Party that dated back to 1915.  It can, therefore, be regarded as a really radical branch of Republican Progressivism from that era.  It advocated for state control of grain mills and the like, and indeed it was influential in the upper Midwest where policies it advocated were put into effect during the Great Depression.  By that time it was part of the Democratic Party, having made the switch in 1920.

Sunday Morning Scene: Denver Catholic Register, December 1919.


Saturday, December 14, 2019

Best Post of the Week of December 8, 2019

Well, there's not doubt the most important post here on this site, for the last week, was this one.

Chrome Messing Up Blogger


Otherwise, we'd offer these as the best posts of the week of December 8, 2019:

The Frozen Puppy

Is it weird to feel bad about what happened, all those eons ago, to the puppy?

The Time Warp

Cry Havoc. How the marijuana story ends.

Lawyers, fire up those complaints.

Blog Mirror. A Hundred Years Ago. Old-fashioned English Pudding with Hard Sauce

The Long Slow Rise. Was Lex Anteinternet: Women in the Workplace: It was Maytag that took Rosie the Riveter out of the domestic arena, not World War Two.

Mid Week At Work: Tobacco, cats, and dogs.

The Chemical News: "New Study Links Birth Control Pill to Brain Differences, but Don't Panic", "Breast Cancer Warning Tied To Hair Dye", "Hair Dyes and Straighteners May Raise Breast Cancer Risk for Black Women". Go ahead and panic.

In terms of public service announcements, this one is probably really the most important.

December 12, 1919. Debutantes and their pets

The British 2019 Election. The tell of the tape.

Democrats, take note.

Inside the Chieftain's Hatch: Dodge WC-51

Chrome Messing Up Blogger

It is, and that's odd, as Chrome is a Google platform and so is Blogger.

Anyhow, right now, on Chrome this blog is so slow its unusable.  In the process, I've tried eliminating some links and the calendar that was a link to our This Day In Wyoming's History blog, which had the impact of wiping out that calendar entirely (and I don't have the code right now to restore it).

Extremely frustrating, to say the least.

Poster Saturday: Why Aren't You In The Army?


A Russian White poster from the Russian Civil War, raging a century ago and to have enormous global impacts in its results.

Southern Rockies Nature Blog: What Would a Mountain Lion Eat for Thanksgiving?

Southern Rockies Nature Blog: What Would a Mountain Lion Eat for Thanksgiving?: A wintry view of the riparian area in or near Santa Ana Pueblo, photographed from Amtrak's Southwest Chief on November 20th. Br...

Friday, December 13, 2019

Meanwhile, in the United States House of Representatives. . .

where the makeup of parliament is not an immediate concern, Republican maneuvers Thursday meant that the vote on the articles of impeachment for Donald Trump rather than occurring yesterday afternoon, in time for the evening news cycle, will occur today.

Speculation abounds, but it appeared that GOP objections and actions were designed to push the vote late into the night with the corresponding result that it would hit the news for most people this morning, when they were otherwise concerned about work and the day, and therefore make less of a splash.  Chairman Jerry Nadler was apparently having none of it and gaveled the hearing down, meaning the vote will occur today.

A lot of the political maneuvers and spectacle surrounding the impeachment proceedings has been a feature of routine politics, old fashioned politics, and aiming for the media fence on the part of both sides.  It hasn't been pretty.  Never content with the normal opening and closing statement that should be routine, the hearings have featured daily openings in which, at least in the intelligence committee, featured a Democratic Congressman who presents as an absolute pompous ass v. a GOP Congressman who didn't seem to quite know what the real issues are. Everyone looks horrible.  Indeed, it makes a person nostalgic for hearings as presented in The Godfather or The Aviator, which were supposed to show defeated proceedings but which look so much more adult.  In truth, they've probably always been this juvenile but we didn't get a front row seat until recently.  Having said that, the chance for Congressmen to imagine that they're making points at home with their declarations means that the temptation to drone on while pretending to be Roman Senator from a 1960s vintage movie or a jacketless Teamster is just too strong for some.

So the vote will come today.

Having said that, savvy press folks take the view that the best time for a story to break is a Friday, as people want to get home and quit thinking about the hard week behind them.  Many people never read a Saturday newspaper and if they do, they read the sports page so they can see what their teams are doing that day and tomorrow.  Others check the local events.  Political circus isn't on most people's minds.

Particularly when it appears that most people have their minds made up already. So the maneuver may prove to be wise indeed.  The hearing will end with a whimper and it looks like it'll never get much beyond a motion to dismiss in the Senate.  We'll hear about the whole thing all next year as Democrats try to use what occurred to whip up support for their Presidential candidates and the President uses it to accuse the Democrats of doing nothing the past four years except look for ways to remove him.  Frankly the Democrats are pretty vulnerable to such accusations now that this is set to fail.  Nancy Pelosi's early instincts in this area will prove to be correct.  Nobody who is not in one camp or the other is going to be deeply moved by these results, and those strongly in either camp will see the entire matters as vindicating the views they already held.

And one of those views is that Congress has done pretty much nothing over the past four years. That's not completely correct, and indeed the House passed a major trade bill this past week.  The Senate, in fact, has been making a record number of Court appointments and that fact, little notice,d means that the Federal bench has been more impacted since any time since Jimmy Carter's administration, when the Carter appointments reformed a left leaning bench into a solidly left leaning bench.  Now it'll be a solidly conservative bench.  The result of that will be that many topics now decided by courts rather than legislatures will have to be done the other way around, with the national legislature having to really actually work for the first time in over a decade.

If it can find its way around to doing that.

The British 2019 Election. The tell of the tape.

Conservatives took 364 seats.

Labour Party took 203.

In Scotland, the Scottish Nationalist Party took 48.

The United Kingdom, Scottish protests aside, will leave the EU.  This will probably occur by the end of January.

A new British immigration system will be ushered in which will be similar to the Australian one, requiring immigrants to have a job before entering the country.  EU citizens will have no preference over non EU immigrants.

Scottish nationalist will howl, but their ability to impact anything will decline.  Indeed, this result can be partially attributed to the fact that a referendum occurred on Scottish independence some years ago, something that was wholly unnecessary under the law but which boosted the power of Scottish nationalist, something which had been largely absent before that.  They'll howl now, but they'll be along for the ride, like it or not.

The Labour Party will start to reform and retreat from the hard left positions it was espousing.

The EU will be weakened significantly.  Anti EU sentiment exists in numerous localities within the EU itself, particularly outside of the few dominant nations, but even within them.  And the resurgence of the British right will lead to a resurgence in the European right as well, which is much further to the right than the British right is.

The Agrarian/Distributist surprise

I want to get some orange juice.

Okay, here it is.

But I want it from the companies that get it right from the farmers.

Oh. . .okay.

I give Coca Cola enough of our money as it is.

Okay.

I want to help support farmers, like us.


Trailing, in other words:

From the English language version of an Italian news outlet:
(ANSA) - Rome, December 11 - Transhumance, the traditional farming practice of seasonal migration of livestock along storied tracks towards better climate conditions, was unanimously inserted Wednesday into UNESCO's list of of intangible cultural heritage.    The successful bid was made by Italy, Austria and Greece.    With this new inclusion, Italy has overtaken Turkey and Belgium into top spot for rural and agri-food citations.

Trailing to the high country, in other words.


Eating is an agricultural act.

Eating is an agricultural act.

Wendell Berry

Thursday, December 12, 2019

The British Conservatives Win Big (but Scottish Nationalist do too).

And so nationalism, both of the union and disunion type, triumphed over a British left that was going more left.

The Labour Party's defeat today in the UK was blistering.  Boris Johnson, whom some compare to Donald Trump, probably inaccurately, took a Conservative Party that lacked a majority six weeks ago and demolished a British left tainted by a leader who made anti Semitic comments while his already left wing party went further left.

So the results are that a British Conservative Party will dominate in a way that it hasn't for decades, even while Scottish nationalism appears resurgent.  Some predict that Northern Ireland will turn toward the Irish Republic, although quite frankly that seems extremely unlikely, and that the United Kingdom will fall apart.

I doubt that, but this British election does have a lesson for the American one.  Simply detesting an opponent and claiming he's boorish isn't a platform.  And in an era in which old nationalism, of both the conservative and radical variety, are resurgent, being an internationalist isn't a lesson for success.

The United States isn't the United Kingdom, but U.S. Democrats should take note.  Labourites were counting on Johnson's own character defeating the Conservatives not only miscalculated, they didn't calculate at all.  American Democrats counting on Trump defeating himself in the fall of the next year may likewise be making a tremendous miscalculation.  Indeed, my prediction is that the impeachment that the Democratic Party is about to launch the country into will turn first into a failed impeachment trail and then be used by President Trump as a bloody flag during the election.  It'll become the symbol of a "do nothing Congress" allied to the "Deep State".

Exactly how the Labour Party should have approached this election isn't clear to me.  It would seem, however, that opposing Brexit, which they had to do, shouldn't have been the hill that they chose to die on, if they did.  But beyond that, I suspect the following comment by a Labour MP sums up a lot quite quickly:
Caroline Flint
@CarolineFlintMP
We’re going to hear the Corbynistas blame it on Brexit and the Labour Uber Remainers blaming Corbyn. Both are to blame for what looks like a terrible night for Labour. Both have taken for granted Labour’s heartlands. Sorry we couldn’t offer you a Labour Party you could trust.
And that too should provide a lesson for U.S. Democrats.  Demographics that the Democrats have depended upon for decades are now showing disinterest in the party at what should be, for them, alarming rates.  That doesn't mean that the some voters are becoming Republicans, they probably only are in very small numbers. But it does mean that they are no longer reliable Democratic voters.  In spite of that, the Democrats have been taking positions that are contrary to these demographics even while basically claiming them as their own.

Whatever the lessons for American politicians are, I doubt they'll be learned. Labour learned a lesson tonight, but it may be years before they really digest the lesson to where they can adjust to it.  And, for that matter, the Scottish Nationalist Party may have learned false lessons in the same way that the Parti Quebecois has had, and then been forced to adjust to, over the years, that being a protest against Ottowa, or London, doesn't really necessarily mean that its a vote to depart.


Lex Anteinternet: Election Day. . .

Lex Anteinternet: Election Day. . .: in the United Kingdom, that is. Today the British go to the polls, again, in an election called on October 29. Yes, the British are deci...
And it appears that the Conservatives are in fact emerging with a clear majority in the first British December election since 1923.

If there were doubt on Britain and Brexit, in terms of resolve, this would appear to have addressed them.

Election Day. . .

in the United Kingdom, that is.

Today the British go to the polls, again, in an election called on October 29.

Yes, the British are deciding major political and policy matters with only a month and a half lead in time.

If only. . .

Well anyhow, the theoretical contenders for control of parliament, together with who would be PM if they should win, and their present share of the last vote, are: 1) Conservatives (Boris Johnson), 42.4%; 2) Laboour (Jeremy Corbyn), 40.0%; 3) Scottish Nationalist Party (Nicola Sturgeon) 3%; 4) Liberal Democrats (Jo Swinson) 7.4%; 5)  Democratic Unionist Party (Arlene Foster) .9%; and 6) Sinn Fein (Mary Lou McDonald) .7%.

Rather obviously, only Johnson or Corbyn will emerge the PM.

Corbyn has made a lot of news recently for anti semetic statements.  Johnson, of course, has made a lot of news for being Johnson.  Johnson is attempting to secure a pure majority, which he lacks, in order to push Brexit through.

December 12, 1919. Debutantes and their pets

Clarion State Normal School, Dec. 12, 1919, Clarion, PA

The Clarion State Normal School, formerly a seminary, was photographed on this day in 1919.  The next year it would become a public institution with the State of Pennsylvania purchased it.  At that time it became a university, which is what it is today, as Clarion University.  A normal school is a teachers college.

And a photographer from the National Photo Company spent the day photographing debutantes and their pets.




The Chemical News: "New Study Links Birth Control Pill to Brain Differences, but Don't Panic", "Breast Cancer Warning Tied To Hair Dye", "Hair Dyes and Straighteners May Raise Breast Cancer Risk for Black Women". Go ahead and panic.

The headlines counsel not to panic.

Well of course they do.

Panic is nature's way of getting you the heck of the way out of some terrible danger.  You are Captain Willard on an improbable mission into Camboida and the tiger comes through the jungle. . . you are in the velt when an African elephant spies you and charges full on aiming to squish you. . . you forgot to study for that exam that's scheduled 30 minutes from now.

Yes, panic.

And by panicking, concentrate your focus on that bad thing and avoid it.

But then, if you panic here, you may change your lifestyle in a truly revolutionary way that will be bad for somebody's pocketbook and may require you to make inconvenient life choices, opting for a natural, which doesn't just involve buying cabbage at the farmer's market.

Yup.

A long time ago on this blog, I posted a topic called We like everything to be natural . . . except for us.  That post, like a lot of posts here, was pretty wide ranging.  But part of what it noted was this:

 Chilean couple, 1940, no doubt a lot more natural than "all natural" folks today, in every sense.

In our world today, westerners (residents of Europe and North America) are huge on things being "all natural".  It's the rage, and it doesn't appear to be going away any time soon.  And I'm not really criticizing it, as my agrarian leanings make me sympathetic, when its done in the messy, bloody, muddy way of actual nature.  I'm not so sympathetic with the fanciful fake natural way that some who fear real nature would have it.

So, in this era of all natural, we have "natural" organic foods of all types.  Natural organic oatmeal (maybe even better if from Ireland and cut with steel), organic vegetables, grass fed beef.  You name it.

Indeed, entire sections of the European and North American populations are at war with any genetically altered foods of any kind, although it must be noted in fairness that nearly every food we eat was selectively bred that way so as to alter it from its original form, save for people who eat fairly primitive foods and hunt and fish.  Indeed, ironically for some of these folks, our meat sources tend to be much less genetically altered by selective breeding than our plant foods.  Cows, for example, differ little from aurochs.

 
Frequently satirical copied World War Two era poster.  Presenting an idealistic image, the mother and daughter in fact represent Americans who were a lot more "natural" than nearly any living today.

People have taken this one step further and now, in some hip circles, want their foods to be produced all locally.  Again, I'm not criticizing that.  I have some sympathy for it, being a fan of systems and realizing how odd some of our food production chain actually is.   I used to grow a big garden myself, and miss doing so, which sort of taps into this.

And we have all natural concerns expressing themselves in clothing.  I know of people who will only wear "all natural fibers".  Not liking synthetics much, I trend that way, although I do like the storm proof hoodies that are now out there, which make for great winter insulation.

Some folks, however, have gone even one step further there, and insist that their fibers, if plant derived, also be organic, out of an apparent concern for the environment.

All really big in Europe and North America, particularly with the upper class, the upper middle class, and the university crowd.

And then it went on to pose this question:

So why don't we apply it to ourselves?

And then it went on to address some of the very headlines addressed below, although some certainly weren't.

First, one that was:

New Study Links Birth Control Pill to Brain Differences, but Don't Panic

The news there actually isn't all that new in some ways actually.  Brain differences may not have been specifically previously noted, but what has been noted, scientifically, is that women's abilities in regards to mate choosing (it's hard to find a way to put this that doesn't sound odd) are significantly clouded if they're on the pill.

Now, what I don't mean is that women who are on the pill are less choosy about sex than women who are not.  They likely are.  While the risks associated with sex are there no matter what, rather obviously women who are at a higher risk of getting pregnant are no doubt a lot more careful than those who are not.

No, what I mean is that those who have studied it have said that women on the pill, for bio-psychological reasons that aren't well understood (but for which there may be a hint here) actually tend to choose men whom studies claim they'd frequently avoid if they weren't on the pill.

Again, while its really unpopular to say so, it's well known that sex impacts thought and psychologically women and men bond to each other upon having sex in a deeply psychological way.  One of the real fall outs from the sexual revolution that wasn't expected is the now fairly well demonstrated psychological wounding that casual sex has brought about.  People don't actually end up feeling "liberated" at all, but rather they become more animalistic with their behavior while feeling a deep sense of loss.  Like with so many other things, the old standards turn out to have a real basis beyond that which were imagined.

Anyhow, earlier studies found that women selecting long term mates while on the aforementioned pharmaceuticals often went in a different direction, the studies claimed, than they would have but for them.  As part of that, when off, there was the responding reaction of "what the @#$@#$ have I done here?" in some instances.

Anyhow, any time something changes in your brain due from what it would be in a state of nature is, in fact, a reason to panic.  That headline makes about as much sense as one stating "Smoking changes lungs. . .put don't panic."

This isn't, of course, the first concerning study on the pill, or more properly the pills.  Prior studies have pointed out increased health risks of all sorts, including cancer and strokes.  And this in turn makes the pill one of those pharmaceutical products which it is pretty clear the FDA wouldn't allow on the market today, if just introduced today, but which is due to our being both acclimated and societaly dependent on it.  There's as much chance of addressing it objectively as there would have been on objecting tobacco in Virginian in 1798.  Not going to happen.

So, "don't panic", is the advice you'll get.

And then there are these headlines:


Breast Cancer Warning Tied To Hair Dye


and;

Hair Dyes and Straighteners May Raise Breast Cancer Risk for Black Women

First, let's clear something up.  There are risk for white women, black women, Asian women, Latina women. The risk is to women.  The headline is deceptive.

There's a heightened risk however for black women.

We're not really certain why that is, but my guess is that it has to do with frequency of use rather than anything else.  It's not, of course, that other women, particularly white women, don't use hair products, but the marketing aimed at black women and white women are different as their hair is.  One of those difference is noted right in the headline.  White women don't often use hair straighteners.

African Americans have put up with a lot of hair abuse, it should be noted.  I don't know when it really got started but my guess is that it's a 20th Century thing.  Once African Americans moved into the cities in the Great Migration, they started to take up urban styles, for obvious reasons, and that meant taking up the urban hair styles of the day.  Both men and women were affected with this and one of the things that was affiliated upon them was hair straighteners.  African American men seem to have largely abandoned this in the 1960s, and I suspect that may be in part to conscription.  Nobody is going to mess with their hair too much if they're fighting in Vietnam, for example. I note that as during the 1960s African American men really abandoned this stuff en masse and have never taken it back up.  African American women did for awhile as well, but then at some later point, the late 80s or 90s, it became popular in their community for hair to be straightened and colored once again.

If there's any leveling factor in here at all, it's notable that, if anything, white women are really taking up messing with hair color in spades now and it's even spread to white men.  The pretty girl who looks like she's been in a tragic fishing tackle accident at Albertson's, for example, has lime green hair.  So that's going to be catching up with them as well.

All this fits into the unfortunate set of facts that women are uniquely afflicted with those who want to change how they look for no good reason.  Women look the way they're supposed to look without hair dies, hair straighteners or giant artificial lips or boobs.  Just stop it should be the cri de couer here. Don't.  You'll be better for it in every way.

This would seem to be self evident, but all the known health risks with the pill haven't put much of a dent in its marketing and popularity and all the demonstrated disaster due to synthetic boobs haven't caused that to stop either.

So yes, panic.

Or maybe just "Go organic", in a broader sense.

Today In Wyoming's History: December 12, 1919

Today In Wyoming's History: December 12:


December 12


1919  Fourteen Spanish Flu deaths were reported in Washakie County for this week, which of course occurred during the Spanish Flu Pandemic.

The Spanish Influenza was a disaster of epic proportions which managed to impact nearly the entire globe.  While accounts vary, some accounts indicate that the flu epidemic first broke out, at least in its lethal form, in Camp Funston, Kansas. 

Wednesday, December 11, 2019

Time announces its person of the year


Thereby guaranteeing with its choice a second full day of ranting, raving, screaming, proclaiming, crying, yelling, showing, and self righteous accolades and condemnations on Twitter, Reddit and Facebook.

Mid Week At Work: Tobacco, cats, and dogs.

"Men rolling barrels of tobacco across platform over water onto the already crowded CORKER for Louisville, Dec. 11, 1919"

"War dogs decorated for bravery. Group of War dogs decorated by French War department for heroism work on the fighting front"

"This "Kitty" belonged to the Sultan of Turkey. Mrs. Martin K. Metcalf, wife of Commander Metcalf, U.S.N., holding "Pansy" a thoroughbred Turkish cat who formerly did her "meowing" in the palace of the Sultan of Turkey. The cat, brought to Washington from Turkey by Commander Metcalf, is eight years old. She will be one of the interesting entrants in the cat show to be held in Washington at the Wardman Park Hotel, February 1 and 2"

The Long Slow Rise. Was Lex Anteinternet: Women in the Workplace: It was Maytag that took Rosie the Riveter out of the domestic arena, not World War Two.


Some time ago I published this item:
Lex Anteinternet: Women in the Workplace: It was Maytag that took R...: A virtual icon of the liberated strong woman, Rosie the Riveter proclaimed "we can do it" to the nation and became a symbol of ...
This came up elsewhere, where I also posted on it, and in doing that I looked up some of the statistics. They're pretty revealing.  I'll quote, but only in part, the item I was replying to, and then post my reply. That items was:
The post-War labor saving device boom did indeed allow a lot more women into the workforce.  There is also the additional problem of all those ‘Rosie the Riveter’ women were being forced out of the workforce by the returning servicemen.  They wanted their own jobs.
The reply.

It is true that women who worked in industry in World War Two wanted their own jobs, in at least some instances, but I think that story has been pretty heavily oversold and surprisingly the data doesn't really support a large wartime increase like we'd expect, although it does support an increase.  Female labor was heavily used in World War One as well and in some areas may have been more critical in WWI than it was in WWII.

You can find published examples of women who were reluctant to give up their jobs after the Great War, or who even attempted to hang on them nearly by force.  But by and large they pretty quickly reverted to pre war roles.  By the same token, while I've never seen figures on it, I think women who were employed in World War Two in industry had largely returned to pre war roles by some point in 1946.  It began to change after that.

Even at that, some of the statistics you can find are surprising and suggest that a lot of the way that this is now remembered is pretty heavily subject to myth.  In terms of just women working, the real boom is well after World War Two and the trend towards it started well before.

You an find varying data, but it's all pretty close, what it tends to show by decade is the following, with the categories being year, numbers (thousands) employed, percentage gainfully employed, and percentage of the workforce over age 16.


1900 5,319 18.8 % 18.3 %

1910 7,445 21.5         19.9
1920 8,637 21.4         20.4
1930 10,752 22.0         22.0
1940 12,845 25.4         24.3
1950 18,389 33.9         29.6
1960 23,240 37.7         33.4
1970 31,543 43.3         38.1
1980 45,487 51.5         42.5

This doesn't really take into account the spike in employment during either World War One or World War Two, which may be significant in that it tends to potentially be overemphasized.  Taken out, what we see is a slow increase from 1900 onward, which coincides with the rise of domestic implements.


If we figure in the years after 1980, it might be even more revealing.


1980 45,487 51.5     42.5

1990 56,829 57.5     45.2
1993 58,795 57.9     45.5
1994 60,239 58.8     46.0
1995 60,944 58.9     46.1
1996 61,857 59.3     46.2
1997 63,036 59.8     46.2
1998 63,714 59.8     46.3
1999 64,855 60.0     46.5
2000 66,303 60.2     46.6
2001 66,848 60.1     46.5
2002 67,363 59.8     46.5
2003 68,272 59.5     47.0
2004 68,421 59.2     46.0
2005 69,288 59.3     46.4
2006 70,000 59.4     46.0
2007 67,792 56.6     46.4
2008 71,767 59.5     44.0
2010 71,904 58.6     53.6 (which is another watershed year in that the majority of the                                                                     workforce became female and stayed that way)
2014 73,039 56.9     57.0

If we do all of that, we find that the number of women gainfully employed doesn't reach 50% at any point (including WWI and WWII) until 1980 and that it peaked for several years at 60% starting in 1999, before dropping down slightly.


If we also keep in mind that the 1930, 1940 and 1950 numbers we should keep in mind that the 1930 number and the 1940 number may have been artificially low due to the Great Depression.   In other words, we have to wonder if it was higher because of that (women taking jobs because men couldn't find work), or if the opposite was true (female employment artificially low due to lack of employment).  The general statistics curve would suggest it was a little lower than it should have been due to the Depression.  Having said that, my own mother and a couple of her sisters were employed in that period due to the Great Depression.  Their employment probably carried on into World War Two, but it was the Depression, not the war, that brought it about, which is always the way they themselves recalled it.

During the war the number of American women employed outside of the home went from 13.9% to 22.5%, which shows another element to this.  Lots of employed women were employed, but not "outside the home".  I'm not sure exactly how that was categorized, but even as late as World War Two a large number of women were regarded as not employed outside the home, while still gainfully employed.  It makes me wonder if domestic servants were categorized as employed inside the home, as large numbers of women were employed in that capacity.  If that's correct, it was still apparently the case during the war.  The number of women who were employed (which would include those employed inside of their own homes in some capacity) reached 37%, which is a large number and a big jump, but it also means that a lot of women were employed were in some classification that included being employed inside their own homes. The 10% or so jump in the figures represented millions of women, but it's not the impression that people tend to have today which would suggest that the majority of women were in the workforce.  In fact, the majority weren't.  This would also have been an increase in the Great Depression level of employment at 24.3%, but only by about 15% or so. Given the wartime emergency, and the end of the Great Depression, that's a much lower jump than we'd generally suppose.

It's also interesting to note that the wartime 37% figure wouldn't be reached again until 1960.  1960 was only fifteen years after World War Two, and therefore quite a few of the women in that workforce had been employed during the war (to include, again, my own mother).  But because it was a fifteen year gap, that also likely means that some of the women employed during the war had dropped out and returned to work by 1960.  It also, however, would reflect a lot of women entering the workforce who had been children during World War Two.

By 1950 33.9% of women were employed overall in the workforce, which is higher than at any point during the 1940s outside of World War Two.  But even that was only a 10% climb from the 30s.

Leaping back to the Great War, 20% of the war industry work force in the U.S. during World War One was female, a pretty big percentage.  I don't know what the overall percentage of women working in the U.S. workforce was during WWI, but that figure alone suggests it was pretty big.  If we consider that a lot of farm labor was simply left to women during the war it becomes more impressive.  30% of the German workforce during World War One was female, probably a much higher percentage than during WWII.  France was so denuded of men that women occupied all kinds of occupations.  Nearly anyone who has handled a long arm that was used by an American soldier in France during WWI is handling a weapon rebuilt by female labor in France following the war.

All that's a lot of blathering on my part, and I'm clearly proposing a revisionist history, but all in all, I think the data supports that 1) women were hugely important in the workforce in WWII; but 2) they also had been in WWI; and 3) female employment dropped really rapidly to immediate prewar levels following the wars (partially, no doubt, due to social pressures that were high, but higher in 1919 than in 1946);  but 4) those levels of employment were steadily increasing due to something other than workforce acclimation and had been rising since at least the 1890s. So the question then becomes, what caused that?

Probably a lot of things, to be sure, some of which I can suppose but will omit. But one definite factor, and I'd argue a much more significant factor, was the rise of domestic machinery.

So, if it seems like I'm suggesting that Maytag and Hoover may have had more to do with putting women in the workplace rather than the example of Rosie the Riveter, while an unpopular view, that's what the data suggests.

But what else might that data suggest, if we look at it carefully?

Well, as the person posting on the topic noted, quite correctly:
There weren’t a lot of fields open to women to work outside of the home, either.  School teacher, nurse or secretarial for the most part, were the majority of the jobs available to women.  Now you have women working as guards in men’s prisons.
So my further elaboration, or blabbering, follows, in this interesting topic.

I was going to come back and post on that after thinking about it, but I also don't think that the change there was brought about due to World War Two.

One thing the Rosie the Riveter type image sort of predisposes us to think is that women hadn't worked in heavy industry before World War One, and then after World War Two,t they stayed in it. But neither is true.

Whats definitely true is that women's occupational options were much more limited in prior times, but that seems to have started changing in real terms in the 1970s, although even there, there had been a slow change earlier in the 20th Century. 

Going into World War One women's occupational opportunities were really limited, which is part of the reason the statistics might reflect a large number of "inside the home" employed women, as they may have been domestics, one of the few fields open to them.  Other than that, teaching, like you mention, was an option, but not much beyond that. Secretarial roles, which later became a woman's field, wasn't open to them much at the time.  Store clerks, waitresses, and other occupations in that low paying arena were, together with some manufacturing such as clothing manufacturing, but it was pretty limited.  Given that, it's interesting that the number of women employed was as high as it was, and it was probably almost in low paying jobs as a rule.

World War One saw a big increase in women employed in heavy industry.  Here's one such example:

British factory worker, 1919.

Jobs like that no doubt paid a lot better than traditional women's roles, and lots of other examples can be found from that time frame and a lot of them are really surprising.  Lots of nurses, of course, but also lots of women drivers and women working in agriculture and timbering roles (both involving horses, linking back into our focus here).  After the war, however, employment in all those roles save for nursing dropped off.  Women really came into the Army, Navy and Marines in strength in telephone and secretarial roles as well, although they were mustered back out after the war.  In some isolated instances (including in Germany) women saw some use in law enforcement.

Between the wars women pretty much replaced men in the secretarial role. That had started prior to World War One, but as late as that time men occupied most secretarial roles.  The first female secretary to be employed by a U.S. Senator was one employed by Wyoming's Francis E. Warren, and that was just before World War One.  But by the 1920s women secretaries had not only become common, they dominated the field.

Anyhow, the industry jobs disappeared after the war. During the Second World War we get all the industrial occupations once again, but then again right after the war it dropped off again.



After World War Two women's fields were likely more open than they had been, but even then it was really several decades before women were commonly in most occupational areas.  While its only a movie, as sort of an example, the film The Deer Hunter was on the other day and I happened to watch it and it didn't strike me as odd that 100% of the iron workers in the film are men.  It was filmed in 1979, depicting 1973, I think, and it was right about that time that it was thought to be interesting to show a woman working in a blue collar job because it remained so unusual.  Locally the first women police officers and firemen came in right about 1980 or so and it was unusual enough that it wasn't really well thought of.  But that's 35 years after the Second World War. 

I think that too all points to something else going on, and what I think it is, is that the rise of domestic machinery made women surplus to domestic labor.  All of us here were born after the rise of domestic machinery and so we only have the recollections of our parents, who came up during the tail end of that rise.  My mother used to speak of the girls taking rugs out to hang on the line to be beat to clean them, something I've only seen on rare occasion but which seems to have been pretty common in the era she was speaking of.  More than one woman her age spoke about hanging out the laundry to dry to be a collective chore, and with big families, I'm sure it was.  Cooking took all day at the time as a lot of people didn't have modern stoves and both my father and my mother had some recollections of their mothers or grandmothers being involved in cooking on an average day nearly all day.  Indeed, my mother was a terrible cook as she'd learned from her mother who had never adjusted to a gas stove and who simply boiled everything endlessly if that was an option, that being pretty common when people had to cook on wood burning stoves.

All of that isn't very long ago, but if we look back, as late as the 1930s the majority of men didn't graduate from high school but went to work in their teens while still living at home.  If they left home, they lived in a boarding house.  Domestic labor was too difficult for people to really "live out on their own".  Army barracks of the old era (which more than one of us here have lived in) showed that, as collective living of the simple type was about as good as a group of men could manage, the same being reflected in bunkhouses on ranches.  Female labor tended to be heavily employed at home, and therefore out of the workforce, by necessity.

But once you don't have to haul rugs out to beat them but run a vacuum cleaner over them, and you don't have to have somebody cooking from around 5:00 a.m. through 5:00 p.m., and you don't have to buy food every other day as the ice box is now a refrigerator, things really change.  That probably reflected itself first in young women starting to attend college in large numbers (47% of college students in 1920 were female), showing that they weren't needed at home, followed by young women occupying new occupational fields, and then with the big increase in education following World War Two the opening up of many field to women starting in the 1970s.

Indeed, that probably does have a connection with World War Two, but it'd be oddly with the GI Bill, which benefited mostly men.  That opened up fields to men of entire demographics that were previously closed to them, and with the advance of domestic machinery freeing up young women from employment in that role, and in their getting education in other areas, the results came about by the 70s.

So where does all of this leave us?

Well, things have rather obviously changed for women in the work place, but the reasons for that aren't, it seems to me, what they might seem to be.  Rather, they're technological and economic.

All of this was addressed in the first post we linked into here, which is one of the better ones on this website.  And the social implications of that are enormous and play into a huge amount about how things developed, rather than how we believe they developed.  And that really matters.  But we've gotten it mostly wrong.