Thursday, May 20, 1943. New Fleet started, old court ended.

Admiral King, head of the 10th Fleet.

Today in World War II History—May 20, 1943: US Tenth Fleet is established to control shore-based antisubmarine operations in the Atlantic. US War Ration Book Three is distributed by mail.

From Sarah Sundin's blog.

The United States Court for China, a US Federal and Civil court based in Shanghai, ceased operations. The extraterritorial court had been in existence since 1906 but was no longer needed, if it ever really was, following the January 11 abandonment of extraterritorial rights in the country.

Roosevelt, via courier, proposed to meet with Stalin, keeping his proposal secret from Churchill.

Wednesday, May 16, 1923. Chinese bandit situation turns worse.

 

May 12, 1943. The Afrika Korps Surrenders.

 Axis forces in North Africa surrendered.

This was the first full theater collapse of an Axis army during World War Two.

Regarding this event, Sarah Sundin notes:

Today in World War II History—May 12, 1943: 80 Years Ago—May 12, 1943: German and Italian troops surrender in Tunisia, ending the campaign in North Africa; Allies take 225,000 prisoners.

The Axis surrender was affected by Colonel General Hans-Jürgen von Arnim and General Giovanni Messe, commanders, of the German Army and the Italian Army in North Africa.  Von Arnim refused to surrender the terms of the unconditional surrender, although his troops were surrounded and in fact were surrendered.

Messe.

Messe had experience in armored warfare, and had served on the Russian Front prior to being posted to North Africa.  This is all the more remarkable when you consider that Messe was an Italian Royalist and would go on to serve as Chief of Staff of the Italian Co-Belligerant Army after Italy switched sides in the war, making him a unique figure.  He was popular with the Italian people and went on to serve in the Italian Senate.

Messe wearing Iron Cross and inspecting Italian troops in Russia.

He may be the only figure to have fought with the Germans on two fronts, and then against them in his homeland, as well as perhaps being the only commander to have fought against the Soviets on Soviet territory to go on to fight in an army allied to them.

He died in 1968 at age 85.

The Trident conference between Winston Churchill and Franklin Roosevelt commenced in Washington, D.C.  It would run for sixteen days.

Sundin, in her blog, also notes that the Indian Army evacuated Maungdaw.

The massive Battle of West Hubei commenced in China between the Nationalist Chinese Army and the Imperial Japanese Army.  The Japanese offensive would fail, with each army loosing about 25,000 casualties.

The "Fido" acoustic homing torpedo came into action in the North Atlantic, being used by a Royal Air Force B-24 to damage the U-456.

Saturday, May 12, 1923. Operations Plan 712.

The Country Gentleman went to press with an illustration of a cow, a fitting illustration for today, which is the day we normally run far related posts.

Sigh. . . 

Lieutenant Colonel Earl Hancock "Pete" Ellis died in Palau.  He was the author of Operations Plan 712: Advanced Base Operations in Micronesia, which became the basis of the American amphibious campaign during World War Two.

A brilliant career Marine, who had entered the Corp in 1900 as a private, he had been on an intelligence gathering mission in the Far East at the time of his death in Palau, a fact which gave rise to rumors that the Japanese had poisoned whiskey he was drinking.  In reality, the whiskey itself was likely the poison, as Ellis was a severe alcoholic who likely finally succumbed to the natural implications of that condition.

Judge went to press with an illustration that featured a play on words.

The Chinese bandit kidnapping drama continued.

Friday, May 4, 1923. Trends of the 20s.

Canada banned Chinese from entering the country unless they were diplomats, children born in Canada, merchants, or university students.

The law was repealed in 1946. Between 1923 and 1946 only 15 Chinese immigrants were accepted into Canada. The effect of the law, which precluded familiar ties and lead to an imbalance of genders, resulted in a decrease in the Chinese population in Canada.

On the same day, this baseball game was played in Toronto's Bayside Park.

Hitler, on the rise, delivered this speech in Munich attacking war reparations, something obligated by the Versailles Treaty, and also urging rearmament.

Thursday, April 26, 1923. First balls, royal weddings.

President Harding threw the first ball in the Yankees v. Senators game of April 26, 1923.

Note how well dress the crowd is.

The future King and Queen Consort of England, Prince Albert and Lady Elizabeth Bowes-Lyon were married.

Northeastern University in China was founded by warlord and provincial ruler Zhang Zuolin.

Old Northeaster University logo.

Thursday, April 15, 1943. V-Mail.

 

The first Victory Mail station established overseas, in this case in Casablanca.

The technology involve microfilming mail for more efficient transmission.

From Sarah Sundin's blog:

Today in World War II History—April 15, 1943: Maj. Gen. Omar Bradley takes command of US II Corps in Tunisia; George Patton is relieved to prepare for the invasion of Sicily.

All in all, Patton had been in command of II Corps for a mere matter of weeks.

On the same day, Gen. Eisenhower toured the front in North Africa.

The State Bank of Ethiopia was established.

The Sino-American Cooperative Organization was established as an intelligence gathering cooperative between Nationalist China and the United States.

The Fountainhead by Ayn Rand was issued. I haven't read it, and I'm not going to, as Ayn Randites don't impress me.

Saturday, April 14, 1923. Waiting Dates, Young Couples, Racist Organizations Where You Wouldn't Expect Them.

It was Saturday, and the Saturday Evening Post chose to run an illustration of a woman waiting, presumably on a date.

The Country Gentleman illustration depicted a young couple applying for a marriage license, with a caption below that would be regarded as racist today, but which was still common for complete independence when I was young.

The Lansing-Ishii Agreement which had defined Japanese and American spheres of influence in China was abrogated after six years of being in effect due to Chinese objections regarding the agreement.

The Tribune reported on a tidal wave in Japan, and Irish plots against the British, but the really shocking news was the visitation of the Ku Klux Klan to the Emmanuel Baptist Church in Casper at 15th and Popular Streets.  There is no church there today, that location featuring a gas station, two apartment buildings, and a traffic island..

An Emmanuel Baptist Church still exists in Casper, but it's in North Casper today.  I have no idea of there being any connection between the two or not.

Emmanuel Baptist Church, Casper Wyoming

Not the best photograph, by any means, we admit.

Emmanuel Baptist Church in North Casper, Wyoming.

Apparently the same group had visited the Baptist church located at 5th and Beech street earlier.  That Church structure is no longer there either, but a subsequent structure built in 1949 remains, however it is no longer a Baptist Church.

First Baptist Church, Casper Wyoming

This is the First Baptist Church in Casper, Wyoming. It's one of the Downtown churches in Casper, in an area that sees approximately one church per block for a several block area.

This particular church was built in 1949, and sits on the same block as Our Savior's Lutheran Church.

Changes in Downtown Casper. First Presbyterian becomes City Park Church, the former First Baptist Church.

I debated on whether to put this entry here or on our companion blog, Lex Anteinternet.  In the end, I decided to put it up here first and then link it over. This will be one of a couple of posts of this type which explore changes, this one with a local expression, that have bigger implications.

When we started this blog, some of the first entries here were on churches in downtown Casper.  These included the First Presbyterian Church and the First Baptist Church, with buildings dating to 1913 and 1949 respectively.  First Baptist, it should be noted, has occupied their present location, if not their present church, for a century.

Indeed, while I wasn't able to get it to ever upload, I have somewhere a video of the centennial of the First Presbyterian Church from 2013, featuring, as a church that originally had a heavy Scots representation ought to, a bagpipe band.  Our original entry on that church building is right below:

First Presbyterian Church, Casper Wyoming

This Presbyterian Church is located one block away from St. Mark's Episcopal Church and St. Anthony of Padua Catholic Church, all of which are separated from each other by City Park.

The corner stone of the church gives the dates 1913 1926. I'm not sure why there are two dates, but the church must have been completed in 1926.

Well, since that centennial, First Presbyterian has been going through a constant set of changes, as noted in our entry here:

Grace Reformed at City Park, formerly First Presbyterian Church, Casper Wyoming

This isn't a new addition to the roll of churches here, but rather news about one of them.  We formerly posted on this church here some time ago:

Churches of the West: First Presbyterian Church, Casper Wyoming: This Presbyterian Church is located one block away from St. Mark's Episcopal Church and St. Anthony of Padua Catholic Church, all of whi...

People who have followed it would be aware that the Presbyterian churches in the United States are undergoing a period of rift, and this church has reflected that.  The Presbyterian Church, starting in the 1980s, saw conflict develop between liberal and more conservative elements within it which lead to the formation of the "moderate conservative" EPC.  As I'm not greatly familiar with this, I'll only note that the EPC is associated with "New School Presbyterianism" rather than "Old School" and it has adopted the motto  "In Essentials, Unity; In Non-Essentials, Liberty; In All Things, Charity. Truth in Love.".

The change in name here is confusing to an outsider in that this church is a member of the EPC, but it's no longer using its original name.  As it just passed the centennial of its construction, that's a bit unfortunate in some ways. 

We'd also note that the sought set of stairs is now chained off.  We're not sure why, but those stairs must no longer be used for access.

The changes apparently didn't serve to arrest whatever was going on, as there's a sign out in front of the old First Presbyterian, later Grace Reformed, that starting on February 23, it'll be City Park Church.

City Park Church, it turns out, is the name that the congregation that presently occupies another nearby church, First Baptist Church, will call its new church building, which is actually a much older building than the one it now occupies, which is depicted here:

First Baptist Church, Casper Wyoming

This is the First Baptist Church in Casper, Wyoming. It's one of the Downtown churches in Casper, in an area that sees approximately one church per block for a several block area.

This particular church was built in 1949, and sits on the same block as Our Savior's Lutheran Church.

What's going on?

Well, it's hard to say from the outside, which we are, but what is pretty clear is that the rifts in the Presbyterian Church broke out, in some form, in the city's oldest Presbyterian Church to the point where it ended up changing its name, and then either moving out of its large church, and accompanying grounds, or closing altogether.  I've never been in the building but I'm told that its basement looked rough a couple of years ago and perhaps the current congregation has other plans or the grounds and church are just too much for it.  At any rate, the 1949 vintage building that First Baptist occupies is apparently a bit too small for its needs and it had taken the opportunity to acquire and relocate into the older, but larger, church.  It can't help but be noted that both churches have pretty large outbuildings as well. Also, while they are both downtown, the 1913 building is one of the three very centrally located old downtown Casper churches, so if church buildings have pride of place, the Baptist congregation is moving into a location which has a little bit more of one.

While it will be dealt with more in another spot, or perhaps on Lex Anteinternet, the entire thing would seem to be potentially emblematic of the loss that Christian churches that have undergone a rift like the Presbyterian Church in the United States has sustained when they openly split between liberal and conservative camps.  The Presbyterian Church was traditionally a fairly conservative church, albeit with theology that was quite radical at the time of its creation.  In recent years some branches of that church have kept their conservatism while others have not and there's been an open split.  As noted elsewhere this has lead in part to a defection from those churches in a lot of localities, and a person has to wonder if something like that may have happened here, as well as wondering if the obvious fact that a split has occurred would naturally lead to a reduction in the congregation as some of its members went with the other side.  We've noted here before that the Anglican Community locally not only has its two Episcopal Churches in town, but that there are also two additional Anglican Churches of a much more theologically conservative bent, both of which are outside of the Episcopal Diocese of Wyoming.

A person can't really opine, from the outside, if something like this is "sad" or not, but it's certainly a remarkable event.  We've noted church buildings that have changed denominations of use before, but this is the first one where we've actually witnessed it.  And in this case, the departing denomination had occupied their building for a century.

In both instances, the small KKK group was there for the odd purpose of noting something they approved of.  

On the changes in the linked in article, while I'm not completely certain, I believe that no congregation is presently using the old First Baptist Church, and the old Presbyterian Church continued to undergo denominational changes.  It's something affiliated with Presbyterianism in some fashion, but I don't know how.

Amalgamated Bank, the largest union owned bank, forms.

The National League of Women's Voters voted against endorsing the League of Nations while simultaneously urging the US to associate with other nations to help prevent war, a mixed message.

Tuesday, March 6, 1973. Oil Price Controls

Oil pump jacks, Teapot Dome, 1973.

Today In Wyoming's History: March 6: 1973   President Richard Nixon imposed price controls on oil and gas.

This from our companion blog, although It's not entirely accurate the way it's stated.  Price controls had actually come in during 1971 in order to combat inflation.  On this day in 1973 the Cost of Living Council issued Special Rule No. 1, which imposed price controls after the "controls" had become voluntary.

Nixon era price controls would prove to be a spectacular failure, and this one in particular failed to grasp that petroleum supplies now included large scale importation, something well beyond American control.  This would prove to be the case in the upcoming fall, when OPEC would put in place an embargo on the export of oil to the United States, something that would have an enormous impact on the state's economy.

The fact that efforts at price controls went back to 1971 is telling.  It's common to assume now that rampant inflation in the early 70s began when the price of oil skyrocketed following the Yom Kippur War, but in fact they were already rising at the start of the decade.  In no small measure, this was due to the Johnson Administration's "guns and butter" economic strategy of the 60s, in which the United States attempted to pay for the Cold War military, the Vietnam War, and a massive increase in social spending without disrupting the economy.  Cynics would note that inflation, which started in the 60s, helped reduce the actual cost to the government of such programs, which it did, but whether somewhat intentional or not, the economy simply could not endure it.

1973 Spring Training commenced with games played in the majors with designated hitters, in the American League, played for the first time.

Famous author Pearl S. Buck died at age 80.  Her work is most famously associated with China, where she had lived for many years.

Sunday, March 4, 1923. Doomed efforts.

Vladimir Lenin published an article called Better Fewer, But Better, arguing that global revolution was inevitable because the Eastern countries such as Russia, India, and China had larger population than the rest of the world.

Of course, Communism would never come to India, and in Russia it was busy reducing the population.  Seas of blood would flow in the Soviet Union until after World War Two, at which point they started flowing in the newly Communized China.

The 68th Congress of the United States commenced.

On the same day, the Anti Flirt Club launched the first, and last, Anti Flirt Week.

The club's purpose was to protect young women from unwelcome attention from men.  It had the following rules:

1. Don't flirt: those who flirt in haste often repent in leisure.
2. Don't accept rides from flirting motorists—they don't invite you in to save you a walk.
3. Don't use your eyes for ogling—they were made for worthier purposes.
4. Don't go out with men you don't know—they may be married, and you may be in for a hair-pulling match.
5. Don't wink—a flutter of one eye may cause a tear in the other.
6. Don't smile at flirtatious strangers—save them for people you know.
7. Don't annex all the men you can get—by flirting with many, you may lose out on the one.
8. Don't fall for the slick, dandified cake eater—the unpolished gold of a real man is worth more than the gloss of a lounge lizard.
9. Don't let elderly men with an eye to a flirtation pat you on the shoulder and take a fatherly interest in you. Those are usually the kind who want to forget they are fathers.
10. Don't ignore the man you are sure of while you flirt with another. When you return to the first one you may find him gone.

The name aside, the club existed for a real reason.  Increased mobility in society meant that for the first time a lot of unattached young women either left home for work or college, or were outside the house for most of the day, putting them outside the eyes and protection of family members.  The Roaring Twenties, moreover, encouraged a flirtatious attitude on the part of the flapper class of young women, and even a bit of a promiscuous attitude in the case of some.  It's often claimed, with some justification, that the 1960s were simply a repeat of the 1920s in this matter, with the 20s interrupted by the disastrous 1930s.

The Lord's Prayer in Cantonese

我們在天上的父，

願人都尊祢的名為聖，

願祢的國降臨，

願祢的旨意行在地上，

如同行在天上。

我們日用的飲食，今日賜給我們，

免我們的債，如同我們免了人的債，

不叫我們遇見試探，

救我們脫離兇惡，

[因為國度、權柄、榮耀，全是祢的，

直到永遠。阿們！ ]

The Lord's Prayer in Madarin Chinese

我們在天上的父，

願人都尊祢的名為聖，

願祢的國降臨，

願祢的旨意行在地上，

如同行在天上。

我們日用的飲食，

今日賜給我們，

免我們的債，

如同我們免了人的債，

不叫我們遇見試探，

救我們脫離兇惡，

[因為國度、權柄、榮耀，全是祢的， 直到永遠。]

阿們！

Wars and Rumors of War, 2023, Part 2. The Gathering Storm.

We're only on to Feb 1 and already on to the second edition of this thread for 2023.

The reason is simple enough, the last version is already so long that certain features, such as the spell check, aren't working for new entries.  It's easier and more convenient to put up a second edition.

The big news remains, of course, the war in Ukraine.  Now a year old, the drama saw an anticipated Russian walk over turn into a monumentally expensive military disaster, with the Russians suffering battlefield defeats and being pushed out of much of what they'd taken in the first weeks of the war.  

Right now, the battlefield is nearly static, recalling the long stretches of World War One where neither side had the ability to defeat the other.  What seems to be really going on, however, is that the Russians have taken a page out of the Soviet Union's playbook and have been buying time with bodies, sending in convicts and conscripts to soak up Ukrainian munitions while they build towards a resumed offensive which is expected to start soon.

The Ukrainians know this, and are trying to prepare for it.  Part of that preparation is the acquisition of modern Western heavy weapons, which have not yet been provided to them. Western military analysts have been critical of the West for this, but frankly, early in the war nobody saw the Ukrainians being in the position they now are in.  

So a race is on, in which the West scrambles to provide modern main battle tanks, and Ukraine asks for any new system, including F-16s, which it thinks it can get and needs, against a Russian build up based on lessons learned and a larger army.

What should be clear is this.  Putin cannot negotiate, at least not unless he fears a disaster that will remove him from office completely.  Ukraine cannot give in.  It's easy to figure out what a Russian victory would be, but harder to figure out how Ukraine can force a battlefield conclusion.

Having said that, Ukraine might be able to push Russia out of Ukraine entirely, and if I were their strategist, which I'm not, advance across the frontier to the western bank of the Don, which would give the country some security and perhaps something to cause a coup in Russia.  But if they are going to do so, they'll have to achieve that in the next several months as it fights a country whose population has 100,000,000 more souls than it does.

Slava Ukraini.

February 1, 2023, continued:

An announcement from the Canadian government:

Today, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau spoke with the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

The Prime Minister expressed Canada’s ongoing solidarity with the Ukrainian people as they continue to fight Russia’s brutal invasion while facing Russian strikes on civilian targets. The two leaders discussed Ukraine’s military, humanitarian, and financial needs, as well as the recent announcements of significant new support to Ukraine. They also spoke about how Canada and like-minded partners could continue working together to meet Ukraine’s needs due to Russia’s ongoing illegal and unprovoked invasion.

The Prime Minister and the President talked about the upcoming somber anniversary of Russia’s invasion on February 24, and the Prime Minister reaffirmed Canada’s support for Ukraine for as long as it takes. Prime Minister Trudeau welcomed President Zelenskyy’s diplomatic efforts toward a just peace, and the two leaders discussed ongoing engagement with the Global South.

The leaders agreed to remain in close and regular contact.

Canada recently announced it would send four Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, out of an inventory of 112, of which 82 are the combat model and the rest an engineering model.

A couple of things.

The Canadian Army doesn't have a lot of tanks, but its only really likely to need its tanks if Ukraine goes down in defeat and Russia turns its gaze on other territory it once ruled.  Regarding Leopard 2 tanks in general, the British paper the Guardian notes:

There are over 2,300 Leopard 2 tanks available or in storage in 13 Nato countries, according to the IISS, whereas there are only 227 Challenger 2 tanks in the British entire army.

2,300.

The Ukrainians are basically asking for about 300, or at least 100.

There's plenty of them around, although some countries, the Guardian notes, have let theirs deteriorate to such a state they're pretty much unusable. Spain is in that category.

The US has 2,300 M60s in storage. They're not being used at all.  A lot of them are probably not serviceable, but a lot of them could be made serviceable.

Also, Justin Trudeau came into office with a pledge to withdraw Canadian forces from their commitments in the Middle East. This isn't the Middle East, and of course the United States made a dog's breakfast out of its withdrawal from Afghanistan about two years ago.  But it's interesting how events tend to dictate what countries do, as opposed to countries opting how events will proceed.

Canada, FWIW, has a pretty large Ukrainian Canadian population, that being people of Ukrainian heritage.  It's estimated to number 1,359,655 people.

February 2, 2023

Israel-Hamas

Israeli aircraft hit Hamas targets in Gaza following a rocket attack.

Russo-Ukrainian War

Careful watchers of the Op Ed page might note that there's been a growing theme in the last couple of weeks of defeatist "Ukraine can never win" type of opinions being published by pundits. Boiled down, the general gist of them is 1) yes the Ukrainians have managed to hold off the Russians so far, but the Russians have an infinite capacity to absorb losses and 2) they're going to ultimately win through sheer attrition and 3) therefore, NATO support is just prolonging the suffering.

Probably all of these commentators have been against NATO support for Ukraine since the onset, for different reasons. Some are likely America Firsters, others highly fiscally conservative, and some probably Russian sympathizers. The message, however, is all the same, and this will keep up for a while in anticipation of the oncoming Russian offensive.

Historically, it might be worth remembering that the "lesson of history" that "Russia always prevails" is not supported much by actual examples.   If we go back a bit, the opposite seems to be the case.

Russia lost the Crimean War, which lead to an unsuccessful effort to modernize the Russian state.  It also lost the Russo-Japanese War.  It also lost against the Germans in World War One, leading to a complete collapse of the Russian government and revolution, replacing the existing regime with a democratic one which was in turn replaced by a Communist one.

It was on the winning side, of course, in World War Two, but its victory in that war has been so heavily mythologized that it became misunderstood.  In reality, the USSR started off as a German ally, taking part of Poland and the Baltic States, but being fought to a standstill by the much smaller nation of Finland.  Its status changed in 1941 when it was attacked by Nazi Germany, but it was not able to arrest German progress without massive American and British aid.  Had the Western Allies chosen to ignore the Soviet Union, which they really could not have, it's not really known what would have occurred.  Lenin bargained away Poland, Belorussia and Ukraine to the Germans in 1917 in order to retain control of Russia itself, and it may well have done the same in World War Two but for Allied assistance.  Germany's land lust was vast, but it never intended to take all of Russia and in fact it never occupied very much of it, most of its success being in the lands just mentioned.  Moreover, the Soviets were able to rely upon the Belorussians and Ukrainians, for the most part, to fight against the Germans.  People the USSR regarded as non-Russian nationalities made up to 45% of the Red Army, with Ukrainians making up over 60% of the Red Army on the Ukrainian Fronts.  Jewish soldiers in the Red Army, regarded as a separate nationality, were more likely to be decorated for combat than Russians.

Looked at that way, the current war is the first time the Russians have fought a war in which their army has been more or less ethnically homogeneous since the Russian Civil War.  Moreover, the actual history of Russian wars is that the Russians can endure a long war and then collapse into revolution.  The Crimean War saw Cossack revolts. The Russo Japanese War led to the 1905 revolution.  World War one lead to the complete collapse of the Russian state.

Ukraine can win, but it has to be given the means to do so, and very soon.  If Ukraine could be adequately armed this month, and that is what it may take, the oncoming Russian spring offensive could end up a disaster.  When Russian armies experience collapse, which they never did during World War Two, it usually leads to a downfall in the Kremlin.  

February 3, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War.

Ukraine is reporting that Putin has ordered the Russian forces to  capture Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts by March 2023.

The particularly concerning thing about this is that it's very doubtful that new armor will be deployed in Ukraine by the time of the Russian offensive.

Russians have been seeking passports in mass numbers. Russia has suspended issuing them, and now Russians are seeking foreign passports.

China

China has been overflying the United States with a spy balloon.   The US pondered shooting it down, but concluded its intelligence gathering abilities are limited, and it would be more dangerous as a falling object.  

Yesterday it was over Montana.

February 4, 2023

China

A second Chinese spy balloon has been spotted, this one headed for an overflight of South America.

Secretary of State Blinken cancelled an intended visit to China over this.

Frankly, there's no good reason for the US not to have shot this down over southern Canada, if Canada would have allowed for it to happen, or for the Canadians to do it.  Likewise, while it was over Wyoming or Montana, it should have been shot down.  The junk it's carrying would have hit nothing.

Russia

The US is seeking to expel the Wagner Group from Sudan and Libya.

Feb 4, cont.

China v. US.

Perhaps for the first time since World War One, a US aircraft has shot down a balloon.

February 6, 2023

China v. US.

The Administration has announced that it was discovered that the Chinese flew spy balloons over the US during the Trump administration, but apparently they were not detected at the time.  The revelation was dismissed by Trump as "fake disinformation". The Biden Administration offered to brief the Trumpites.

At any rate, the news that the Chinese have been able to pull this off over the past several years undetected is not good news.

Additionally, with the past week or so a U.S. Air Force general has stated that he's fairly certain there will be a war between the United States and China over the defense of Taiwan.  Interestingly this has been a sort of Republican rallying point even though some sections of the GOP are willing to abandon Ukraine.  While perhaps not obvious to everyone, a Ukrainian victory would perhaps serve to delay that, and delay might serve to prevent it.

As for the balloon itself, there is speculation that this was an intentional provaction designed to demonstrate that the US couldn't react, and would do so ineffectively.  If so, it probably partially succeeded in demonstrating that, given as the US was so slow to shoot it down.

February 9, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War.

Ukraine's president, asking for more arms for the country yesterday, also asked for admission to the European Union.

February 11, 2023

China v. US and Canada

Two more balloons have now been shot down, one over norther Alaska and one over British Columbia.  The US shot them both down, the latter via a Canadian request.

The balloons have not been affirmatively identfied as Chinese, but seeing as China is a 19th Century imperial power and balloons a 19th Century surveillance aircraft, it seems likely.

China has become a full blown menace. Where this is headed seems fairly obvious.

February 12, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War.

There are suddenly a lot of voices coming out of Russia suggesting that it won't be able to launch its anticipated spring offensive due, in part, to manpower losses.

Russia has been taking combat losses like crazy the past couple of weeks, and while its made slight gains, they've been very slight and are comiing at a huge cost.

Ukraine has destroyed a Russian  BMPT Terminator in combat. The much vaunted autonomous combat vehicle was overblown to start with and unlikely to amount much, as has been the case with all prior attempts to deploy weapons of this type.

Lithuanian supplied Bofors L70 anti-aircraft guns have arrived in Ukraine.  Ukraine itself is presssing for Western fighter aircraft.

February 12, cont:

And now another object shot down, this one over Lake Huron.

February 13, 2023

China v. US and Canada

The Aerodrome: Why Canada didn't shoot down the "unidentified" ob...:  An excellent thread on NORAD and the strategic considerations that went into it and the modern RCAF: Why didn't Canada shoot down the o...

One of the things he points out in this post is that the F-22, which Canada does not have, is one of the few aircraft capable of performing in the fighter role at such a high altitude.

The Meet the Press interviews on this were interesting.  A Congressman who is up to speed stated that he doesn't think the second and third objects are likely Chinese.  They may very well not be, and its always possible they weren't threats at all.

It's been pointed out ot me by a highly knowledgable person that the reason we may be picking up so many of these now is that NORAD has adjusted its radar screening to pick these up. The Congressman made the same point.  We have traditionally been looking for Soviet or Chinese ICBMs and Soviet aircraft, not slow moving balloons.

Finally, a commentator made the point that we may call these balloons, but they're really drones.

On a goofball level, lots of people are launching speculation on whether they indicate an alien invasion, meaning alien from outspace as opposed to alien from another country.

I also saw somebody quote Noam Chomsky, to the effect that government and elites need to keep people distracted in order to carry out their agenda.  Frankly, I don't know why anyone quotes Chomsky on anything whatsoever, other than linquistics.  Feeling that the government and elites in this country are so coordinated that they have a plan to keep us distracted while they do whatever deeply evil nepharious, and right wing, plot against the working me of the 1930s is crediting everyone with a lot more organization and foresight than they deserve.  Anyhow, that person thought the whole thing was a false flag operation.

Get a grip.

Frank Luke, who won a Congressional Medal of Honor, posthumously, for balloon busing in World War One with his SPAD S.XIII.

Russo Ukrainian War.

The Institute for the Study of War credits Russia with a real information false flag, in the form of media propoganda designed to suggest back in December that they were ready for peace talks, when they were not.  This, the Institute maintains, delayed the supplying of armor to Ukraine.

There's no reason whatsoever to believe at this point that the Russians are aiming for anything else than the complete defeat of Ukraine.

February 14, 2023

Russia v. Moldova

Moldovan coat of arms.

Moldova has revealed a Russian plot, first revealed by Ukraine last week, to destabilize the small country and bring it into the Russian orbit.

Moldova is an independent country because of Russia, but not in the way a person  might at first imagine.  It was part of the Russian Empire after 1812 and then declared independence in 1918, and then joined Romania later that same year. The country is essentially Romanian.  The Soviet Union took the territory back in 1940 which was a principal cause of Romania joining Operation Barbarossa the following year. Following the Axis defeat, the USSR took it back, but it left again after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

That Russia continues to covet it is interesting. This appears to be at least partially in reaction to Moldova's efforts to move closer to the EU in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

February 16, 2023

British defense estimates figure that the Russians have potentially committed 97% of their Army to combat in Ukraine and have now sustained so many casualties that they no longer can engage in a sustained offensive.

If this is correct, and its a big if, it would likely mean the anticiapted spring offensive is not coming, and beyond that, the Russians might not be able to mount a sustained defense against a Ukrainian offensive.

February 17, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War.

Russians have put in excess of 6,000 Ukrainian children through reducation camps.

Marina Yankina, a Russian defense official whose role in the current war was with finance, fell, supposedly, from a 16 story building to her death.

Hmmm. . . . 

China v. US and Canada

The Aerodrome: Failed Balloon Run: It's now known that the U.S. Air Force did attempt to shoot down the Chinese balloon over Montana, using the F-22's cannons as the i...

February 18, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War.

The Wagner Group has sustained 30,000 casualties fighting in Ukraine.

Parts of the Belorussian defense industry are being taken over by Russia.

February 19, 2023

United States v. ISIS

February 20, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Analysts increasingly believe that Russia is in its Spring offensive, but that it has adopted a World War One attrition style strategy where it simply throws men at the Ukrainians knowing that they are expending ammunition, and lives themselves, resisting them.  The strategy isn't to be rapid, but simply cause Ukraine to hemorrhage.

Ukraine is aware of this, which is why it is begging for modern weapons with which to launch its own more mobile offensive.

Russia has committed 97% of its army to combat at its strategy is not without risk.  It's performance has been abysmal and its using up its human resources.

Some, however, believe that the slowness of the Russian advance reflects wartime attrition, and that the Russians are actually deploying per doctrine, but without much armor.

China appears ready to start supplying Russia with weapons.  The US is warning China not to do so.  There's some speculation that China hopes to prolong the war as it does not wish to see Russia fail, and it wants the US to use up its weapons stockpile so that it has nothing with which to aid Taiwan in the (highly likely) event that China attempts to invade Taiwan.

President Biden is in Kyiv.

February 22, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Vladimir Putin suspended the START Treaty regarding nuclear weapons, the irony being that a country whose conventional weapons have been shown to be ineffective, and which is using them up at a prodigious rate, can hardly afford to engage in a nuclear arms race.

Putin did this in an epic length speech on the anniversary of the war he launched on his neighbor.  The speech was telling as he claims that he's not waging a war on the Ukrainians themselves.  This raises the question of to what extent Putin might actually be delusional.

NPR released an excellent edition of its podcast State of Ukraine on the one-year anniversary of the war.

Ukrainian newspapers have broken the news that they have a secret Russian document outlining Russian plans to absorb Byelorussia by 2030.

February 23, 2023

China v. United States and Canada

The Aerodrome: United States releases Chinese Balloon photograph ...:  

United States releases Chinese Balloon photograph taken from U2

 In this photo, you can see the U2's shadow.

Russia v. Moldova

Vladimir Putin renounced his 2012 guarantee of Moldova's territorial integrity.

February 24, 2023

Russia v. Ukraine, Byelorussia and Moldova

The UN passed a resolution calling for Russia to leave Ukraine.

Russian troops dressed in Ukrainian uniforms have been moved near Russia's border with Byelorussia in what appears likely to be staging for a false flag attack on that country, in an effort to expand the war.

Russia also appears to be staging for a false flag operation in Transnistria, the Russian enclave/breakaway region of Moldova.  The area houses one of the world's largest prestaged arms and ammunition stockpiles.

All of this suggests that Russia is set to attempt to expand, not contract, the war.

Prior Related Threads:

Wars and Rumors of War, 2023. The Bear and the Trident. The Russo Ukrainian War crosses the calendar year.

February 18, 1943. On the anniversary of her death. Czeslawa Kwoka.

 

She was Polish, 14 years old, and Catholic.

She was executed by way of an injection of phenol into her heart, shortly after Whilem Brasse photographed her.  Her murder occurred at Auschwitz.

The way that this is noted, when it is, is that "next to Jews", Poles were the second biggest victims of the Holocaust, which tends to put aside the fact that many of the Jews killed by the Germans were Polish Jews, and therefore Poles.  Poland was the center of Jewish European culture prior to the Second World War and the Germans destroyed it.  Not to diminish that, however, is the fact that millions of Poles who were not Jews were also murdered for simply being Poles.  Ms. Kwoka was probably murdered as she was 14 and deemed incapable of providing useful work.  Her mother had been murdered some day prior, likely because she was also deemed incapable of useful work.  Huge numbers of Poles would be shot, gas and starved for that reason, and for the reason that the Germans sought to eliminate the Poles.

Next to the Poles were the Belorussians, which also sets aside that many Jewish Belorussians were killed as Jews.  Likewise, Ukrainian and Jewish Ukrainians were murdered in huge numbers, all for the crime of being Slavs or Jewish.  And we have to add to that the huge number of Red Army prisoners of war starved to death by the Germans for being, once again, Slavs.

It's unimaginable due to its scale.

And on this day, Czeslawa Kwoka was one of them.

On the same day, Joseph Goebbels went on the radio and called for "Total War".  Hitler had already decreed that this was to take place and had ordered the mobilization of German women within a certain age range.

Hans Scholl and Sophie Scholl of the White Rose resistance movement at the University of Munich were arrested. They'd be convicted of treason four days later.

The Japanese extended the ghetto system to Shanghai, creating a Jewish ghetto there made up of those who had fled Europe.  20,000 people were confined to two square miles.

Soong Mei-link, Chiang Kai-shek's wife, became the first private citizen to address the U.S. Congress.  She was also the second woman to do so.  She made the following statement:

Mr. Speaker and Members of the House of Representatives of the United States:

At any time it would be a privilege for me to address Congress, more especially this present august body which will have so much to do in shaping the destiny of the world. In speaking to Congress I am literally speaking to the American people. The Seventy-seventh Congress, as their representatives, fulfilled the obligations and responsibilities of its trust by declaring war on the aggressors. That part of the duty of the people’s representatives was discharged in 1941. The task now confronting you is to help win the war and to create and uphold a lasting peace which will justify the sacrifices and sufferings of the victims of aggression.

Before enlarging on this subject, I should like to tell you a little about my long and vividly interesting trip to your country from my own land which has bled and borne unflinchingly the burden of war for more than 5 1/2 years. I shall not dwell, however, upon the part China has played in our united effort to free mankind from brutality and violence. I shall try to convey to you, however imperfectly, the impressions gained during the trip.

First of all, I want to assure you that the American people have every right to be proud of their fighting men in so many parts of the world. I am particularly thinking of those of your boys in the far-flung, ut-of-the-way stations and areas where life is attended by dreary drabness—this because their duty is not one of spectacular performance and they are not buoyed up by excitement of battle. They are called upon, day after colorless day, to perform routine duties such as safeguarding defenses and preparing for possible enemy action. It has been said, and I find it true from personal experience, that it is easier to risk one’s life on the battlefield than it is to perform customary humble and humdrum duties which, however, are just as necessary to winning the war. Some of your troops are stationed in isolated spots quite out of reach of ordinary communications. Some of your boys have had to fly hundreds of hours over the sea from an improvised airfield in quests often disappointingly fruitless, of  enemy submarines.

They, and others, have to stand the monotony of waiting—just waiting. But, as I told them, true patriotism lies in possessing the morale and physical stamina to perform faithfully and conscientiously the daily tasks so that in the sum total the weakest link is the strongest.

Your soldiers have shown conclusively that they are able stoically to endure homesickness, the glaring dryness, and scorching heat of the Tropics, and keep themselves fit and in excellent fighting trim. They are amongst the unsung heroes of this war, and everything possible to lighten their tedium and buoy up their morale should be done. That sacred duty is yours. The American Army is better fed than any army in the world. This does not mean, however, that they can live indefinitely on canned food without having the effects tell on them. These admittedly are the minor hardships of war, especially when we pause to consider that in many parts of the world, starvation prevails. But peculiarly enough, oftentimes it is not the major problems of existence which irk a man’s soul; it is rather the pin pricks, especially those incidental to a life of deadly sameness, with tempers frayed out and nervous systems torn to shreds.

The second impression of my trip is that America is not only the cauldron of democracy, but the incubator of democratic principles. At some of the places I visited, I met the crews of your air bases. There I found first generation Germans, Italians, Frenchmen, Poles, Czechoslovakians, and other nationals. Some of them had accents so thick that, if such a thing were possible, one could not cut them with a butter knife. But there they were—all Americans, all devoted to the same ideals, all working for the same cause and united by the same high purpose. No suspicion or rivalry existed between them. This increased my belief and faith that devotion to common principles eliminates differences in race, and that identity of ideals is the strongest possible solvent of racial dissimilarities.

I have reached your country, therefore, with no misgivings, but with my belief that the American people are building and carrying out a true pattern of the Nation conceived by your forebears, strengthened and confirmed. You, as epresentatives of the American people, have before you the glorious opportunity of carrying on the pioneer work of your ancestors, beyond the frontiers of physical and geographical limitations. Their brawn and thews braved undauntedly almost unbelievable hardships to open up a new continent. The modern world lauds them for their vigor and intensity of purpose, and for their accomplishment. Your have today before you the immeasurably greater opportunity to implement these same ideals and to help bring about the liberation of man’s spirit in every part of the world. In order to accomplish this purpose, we of the United Nations must now so prosecute the war that victory will be ours decisively and with all good speed.

Sun-tse, the well-known Chinese strategist said, “In order to win, know thyself and thy enemy.” We have also the saying: “It takes little effort to watch the other fellow carry the load.”

In spite of these teachings from a wise old past, which are shared by every nation, there has been a tendency to belittle the strength of our opponents.

When Japan thrust total war on China in 1937 military experts of every nation did not give China even a ghost of a chance. But when Japan failed to bring China cringing to her knees as she vaunted, the world took solace in this phenomenon by declaring that they had overestimated Japan’s military might.

Nevertheless, when the greedy flames of war inexorably spread in the Pacific following the perfidious attack on Pearl Harbor, Malaya, and lands in and around the China Sea, and one after another of these places fell, the pendulum swung to the other extreme. Doubts and fears lifted their ugly heads and the world began to think that the Japanese were Nietzschean supermen, superior in intellect and physical prowess, a belief which the Gobineaus and the Houston Chamberlains and their apt pupils, the Nazi racists, had propounded about the Nordics.

Again, now the prevailing opinion seems to consider the defeat of the Japanese as of relative unimportance and that Hitler is our first concern. This is not borne out by actual facts, nor is it to the interests of the United Nations as a whole to allow Japan to continue not only as a vital potential threat but as a waiting sword of Damocles, ready to descend at a moment’s notice.

Let us not forget that Japan in her occupied areas today has greater resources at her command than Germany.

Let us not forget that the longer Japan is left in undisputed possession of these resources, the stronger she must become. Each passing day takes more toll in lives of both Americans and Chinese.

Let us not forget that the Japanese are an intransigent people.

Let us not forget that during the first 4 1/2 years of total aggression China has borne Japan’s sadistic fury unaided and alone.

The victories won by the United Sates Navy at Midway and the Coral Sea are doubtless steps in the right direction—they are merely steps in the right direction—for the magnificent fight that was waged at Guadalcanal during the past 6 months attests to the fact that the defeat of the forces of evil though long and arduous will finally come to pass. For have we not on the side of righteousness and justice staunch allies in Great Britain, Russia, and other brave and indomitable peoples? Meanwhile the peril of the Japanese juggernaut remains. Japanese military might must be decimated as a fighting force before its threat to civilization is removed.

When the Seventy-seventh Congress declared war against Japan, Germany, and Italy, Congress for the moment had done its work. It now remains for you, the present Representatives of the American people, to point the way to win the war, to help construct a world in which all peoples may henceforth live in harmony and peace.

May I not hope that it is the resolve of Congress to devote itself to the creation of the post-war world? To dedicate itself to the preparation for the brighter future that a stricken world so eagerly awaits?

We of this generation who are privileged to help make a better world for ourselves and for posterity should remember that, while we must not be visionary, we must have vision so that peace should not be punitive in spirit and should not be provincial or nationalistic or even continental in concept, but universal in scope and humanitarian in action, for modern science has so annihilated distance that what affects one people must of necessity affect all other peoples.

The term “hands and feet” is often used in China to signify the relationship between brothers. Since international interdependence is now so universally recognized, can we not also say that all nations should become members of one corporate body?

The 160 years of traditional friendship between our two great peoples, China and America,which has never been marred by misunderstandings, is unsurpassed in the annals of the world.

I can also assure you that China is eager and ready to cooperate with you and other peoples to lay a true and lasting foundation for a sane and progressive world society which would make it impossible for any arrogant or predatory neighbor to plunge future generations into another orgy of blood. In the past China has not computed the cost to her manpower in her fight against aggression, although she well realized that manpower is the real wealth of a nation and it takes generations to grow it. She has been soberly conscious of her responsibilities and has not concerned herself with privileges and gains which she might have obtained through compromise of principles. Nor will she demean herself and all she holds dear to the practice of the market place.

We in China, like you, want a better world, not for ourselves alone, but for all mankind, and we must have it. It is not enough, however, to proclaim our ideals or even to be convinced that we have them. In order to preserve, uphold, and maintain them, there are times when we should throw all we cherish into our effort to fulfill these ideals even at the risk of failure.

The teachings drwn from our late leader, Dr. Sun Yat-sen, have given our people the fortitude to carry on. From 5 1/2 years of experience we in China are convinced that it is the better part of wisdom not to accept failure ignominiously, but to risk it gloriously. We shall have faith that, at the writing of peace, American and our other gallant allies will not be obtunded by the mirage of contingent reasons of expediency.

Man’s mettle is tested both in adversity and in success. Twice is this true of the soul of a nation.

At this point, a committee appointed by the U.S. Government entered, and the following additional address was made.

The VICE PRESIDENT. Senators, distinguished guests, Mme. Chiang Kai-shek, wife of the Generalissimo of the armies of China, will now address you.

Mr. President, Members of the Senate of the United States, ladies and gentlemen, I am overwhelmed by the warmth and spontaneity of the welcome of the American people, of whom you are the representatives. I did not know that I was to speak to you today at the Senate except to say, “How do you do? I am so very glad to see you,” and to bring the greetings to my people

to the people of America. However, just before coming here, the Vice President told me that he would like to have me say a few words to you.

I am not a very good extemporaneous speaker; in fact, I am no speaker at all; but I am not so very much discouraged, because a few days ago I was at Hyde Park, and went to the President’s library. Something I saw there encouraged me, and made me feel that perhaps you will not expect overmuch of me in speaking to you extemporaneously. What do you think I saw there? I saw

many things. But the one thing which interested me most of all was that in a glass case there was the first draft of tone of the President’s speeches, a second draft, and on and on up to the sixth draft. Yesterday I happened to mention this fact to the President, and told him that I was extremely glad that he had to write so many drafts when he is such a well-known and acknowledgedly fine speaker. His reply to me was that sometimes he writes 12 drafts of a speech. So, my remarks here today, being extemporaneous, I am sure you will make allowances for me.

The traditional friendship between your country and mine has a history of 160 years. I feel, and I believe that I am now the only one who feels this way, that there are a great many similarities between your people and mine, and that these similarities are the basis of our friendship.

I should like to tell you a little story which will illustrate this belief. When General Doolittle and his men went to bomb Tokyo, on their return some of your boys had to bail out in the interior of China. One of them later told me that he had to mail out of his ship. And that when he landed on Chinese soil and saw the populace running toward him, he just waved his arm and shouted the only Chinese word he knew, “Mei-kuo, Mei-kuo,” which means “America,” [Applause.] Literally translated from the Chinese it means “Beautiful country.” This boy said that our people laughed and almost hugged him, and greeted him like a long lost brother. He further told me that the thought that he had come home when he saw our people; and that was the first time he had ever been to China. [Applause.]

I came to your country as a little girl. I know your people. I have lived with them. I spent the formative years of my life amongst your people. I speak your language, not only the language of your hearts, but also your tongue. So coming here today I feel that I am also coming home. [Applause.]

I believe, however, that it is not only I who am coming home; I feel that if the Chinese people could speak to you in your own tongue, or if you could understand our tongue, they would tell you that basically and fundamentally we are fighting for the same cause [great applause]; that we have identity of ideals’ that the “four freedoms,” which your President proclaimed to the world, resound throughout our vast land as the gong of freedom, the gong of freedom of the United Nations, and the death knell of the aggressors. [Applause.]

I assure you that our people are willing and eager to cooperate with you in the realization of these ideals, because we want to see to it that they do not echo as empty phrases, but become realities for ourselves, for your children, for our children’s children, and for all mankind. [Applause.]

How are we going to realize these ideals? I think I shall tell you a little story which just came to my mind. As you know, China is a very old nation. We have a history of 5,000 years. When we were obliged to evacuate Hankow and go into the hinterland to carry on and continue our resistance against aggression, the Generalissimo and I passed one of our fronts, the Changsha front. One day we went in to the Heng-yang Mountains, where there are traces of a famous pavilion called “Rub-the-mirror” pavilion, which perhaps interest you to hear the story of that pavilion.

Two thousand years ago near that spot was an old Buddhist temple. One of the young monks went there , and all day long he sat cross-legged, with his hands clasped before him in and attitude of prayer, and murmured “Amita-Buddha! Amita-Buddha! Amita-Buddha!” He murmured and chanted day after day, because he hoped that he would acquire grace.

The Father Prior of that temple took a piece of brick and rubbed it against a stone hour after hour, day after day, and week after week. The little acolyte, being very young, sometimes cast his eyes around to see what the old Father Prior was doing. The old Father Prior just kept on this work of rubbing the brick against the stone. So one day the young acolyte said to him, “Father Prior, what are you doing day after day rubbing this brick of stone?” The Father Prior replied, “I am trying to make a mirror out of this brick.” The young acolyte said, “But it is impossible to make a mirror out of a brick, Father Prior.” “Yes,” said the Father Prior, “and it is just as impossible for you to acquire grace by doing nothing except murmur ‘Amita-Buddha’ all day long, day in and day out.” [Applause.]

So my friends, I feel that it is necessary for us not only to have ideals and to proclaim that we have them, it is necessary that we act to implement them. [Applause.] And so to you, gentlemen of the Senate, and to you ladies and gentleman in the galleries, I say that without the active help of all of us, our leaders cannot implement these ideals. It’s up to you and to me to take to heart the lesson of “Rub-the-Mirror” pavilion.

I thank you.

Normally referred to as Madame Chiang Kai-shek in the west, she was the daughter of a Chinese Methodist missionary and was a Methodist herself.  Indeed, her family had opposed her marriage to Chiang Kai-shek on the basis that he was a married Buddhist, and he provided proof of his divorce and conversion to Christianity prior to the marriage.  In fact, his marital history was problematic as he had two prior wives and a concubine, the latter not unusual in China at the time, prior to marrying Soong Mei-link.

The groundbreaking for the nuclear production facilities at Oak Ridge, Tennessee took place. 

Today In Wyoming's History: February 18: 1943  Converse County woman collected furs to be used for vests for merchant marines.  Attribution:  Wyoming State Historical Society