The State of Wyoming and Natrona County will actually make more money by way of this purchase than it does keeping the property in private hands. So what is this really about?
Well, that requires reading the wind, but if you do, it's plain that the Republican Party of the state abhors the concept of public land to at least some degree. All of Wyoming's current Congressional delegation supported the concept of turning the Federal lands over to the state during the 2016 race, and likely still think that way, even though average Wyomingites are overwhelmingly opposed to it. Governor Gordon's knee-jerk reaction to the Marton transfer seems to express that view as well.
Underlying it all is the concept, generally, that only immediate generations seem to count, and everything is better privatized. Listen to Republican politicians in the state generally, and you'll commonly hear that view. While few will openly state it, the general concept is that it's best to transfer all the land to the State, and for the state to sell all of it to private parties. That will generate "wealth".
It'll also convert the state basically into Ohio, but as it seems that monied interests are the only ones that count, much of the current GOP is deaf on this issue.
Now, we can't say that this is 100% true. The GOP itself is split between the Trumpite populist wings and the old party. Many in the old party are not of this mind, and others remember the era when Governor Geringer and legislators who supported him, like Jim Hageman, Harriet Hageman's father, attempted to privatize the state's wildlife. But many more do not recall anything of this sort.
Indeed, the state has become amazingly blind, at least politically, to think long term, a disturbing symptom of a society that's in deep existential distress. Like late stage Weimar Germany, people are reaching out for simple solutions to long term systemic problems, and only the most extreme views seem to be really having an influence.
Wyoming at one time had an actual two party system. Today is an anniversary of various events which demonstrate that, as noted here regarding past Democrats elected to state office.
And this is just from this day in history. It omits such figures as Governors Ed Herschlar and Mike Sullivan.
It's frankly almost impossible to imagine Wyomingites voting for any of these figures now. Osborne was elected because of something, while over a century ago, that directly relates to what we see now with Gordon, an effort by large landed interest to drive out small ones. They were engaged, quite frankly, in an attempted Republican Party supported public lands, land grab. The effort has never really stopped.
Roncolio was a war hero and McGee a University of Wyoming professor. McGee would be reviled for merely occupying that profession today. Roncolio would be harder to lambaste, as you really couldn't do that with somebody who had landed in Normandy on June 6, 1944. That's instructive, however, in that much of the death of the Democratic Party in the state is due to the Democratic Party itself.
Roncalio was a lawyer who was a Catholic Italian American. Sullivan was a Catholic Irish American. Herschlar had been a World War Two Marine Corps raider. Kendrick was a Texas born rancher. Al these men essentially had "the bark on" in some fashion, and you knew that they held views that were close to those of common Wyomingites, including rank and file Republicans. That day has really passed. While some very solid Democrats remain, its nearly impossible to find one that holds middle of the road views on major social issues. Statewide races are sometimes the exception, but often the state's Democrats can be predicted to be impossibly left wing to elect.
Up until now, this has been stemmed a bit by the fact that the majority of the Republican Party has been grounded in the traditional middle, but during this election that has already massively slipped. It could be seen to be slipping when Barack Obama was elected, an event to which many Wyomingites had a strange knee-jerk reaction to that's hard to explain. Following that, it became increasingly clear that major existential changes are occurring to industries that the state has long depended upon. While massive amounts of coal are still being mined, it's clear to anyone with eyes to see that this is a temporary situation, and one which the state hasn't begun to adjust to. The same is now true of oil and gas. Instead of addressing the economic crisis head on, the popular reaction has to been to blame the Democratic Party. And the Democratic Party, in turn, by nationally embracing increasingly left wing causes, has made itself easy to blame.
This election really demonstrates this. Absent a real surprise, Wyoming will be sending Harriet Hageman to Congress. Neither Cheney nor Hageman can be regarded as "greens" (and while it's hardly been noted, Sen. Barasso has been quietly backing electric charging stations for oncoming electric automobiles in the state), but hardly a day has gone by this week where some Hageman campaign flyer hasn't arrived here, some of which just have silly theses. To read Hageman's propaganda, the Federal government is at war with the state and keeping it from doing whatever it wants due to over regulation and by refusing to allow the production of oil and coal. In reality, Federal oil and gas leases are going unused.
There's always an extreme danger in listening to people who tell you that nothing is your fault, and that everything is somebody else's, that person being somebody that you probably don't actually know. One day in the early 30s somebody is telling you that the Deutsches Heer didn't really lose the war, and was somehow "stabbed in the back" by the Jews, and the next day you are freezing in a muddy trench in Stalingrad. Well, that's your fault for listening to such complete nonsense.
Around here, right now, there seems to be very little push back on the concept that the voice of the public can be ignored, everything ought to be privatized, and everyone will benefit from never being able to go on the land again as we'll all have jobs for Big Out Of State Entity. That's nonsense. But until there's a way to cause politicians to suffer at the polls for such positions, this will keep on keeping on.
Mussolini officially took office as the Prime Minister of Italy on this day in 1922.
Parades commemorating the event by current fascists took place in Italy yesterday. As earlier noted here, the current Prime Minister is a member of a political party with fascist roots, although she maintains that she is not a fascist herself.
The Trial of Six commenced in Greece, in which the trial of the defeated heads of the late war effort against Turkey would be held, leading to their execution. It was effectively a political trial for the crime of losing the war.
Coca-Cola was referring, of course, to the long desperate forward pass in football which has been irreverently nicknamed after the prayer. I don't watch football (it's titanically boring), and it took me a minute to realize what this was referring to.
The Hail Mary is, of course, the ancient Christian prayer petitioning Mary for assistance. Its basic text is:
Hail, Mary, full of grace,
the Lord is with thee.
Blessed art thou amongst women
and blessed is the fruit of thy womb, Jesus.
Holy Mary, Mother of God,
pray for us sinners,
now and at the hour of our death.
Amen.
I actually learned it in the post Vatican II American Church as:
Hail, Mary, full of grace,
the Lord is with you.
Blessed are you amongst women
and blessed is the fruit of thy womb, Jesus.
Holy Mary, Mother of God,
pray for us sinners,
now and at the hour of our death.
Amen.
The formulation of the prayer is a little lost to history, but it seems to have come about gradually. Some of it's text, of course, comes right from the New Testament. References to early forms of the prayer appear in the mid 11th Century through the 13th. It rose in the Latin Rite and therefore, the early versions took shape in Latin, which of course was also the language of the Latin Rite up until the 1960s.
In Latin, it's the Ave Maria, the text of which is:
Ave Maria, gratia plena
Dominus tecum
benedicta tu in mulieribus,
et benedictus fructus ventris tui, Jesus.
Sancta Maria mater Dei,
ora pro nobis peccatoribus,
nunc et in hora mortis nostrae.
Amen.
Contrary to what some seem to think, it has an Eastern Rite expression as well, and therefore also an Orthodox one. The Eastern version is not used as extensively as the Latin Rite version, but isn't infrequently used. Its text is:
Translating from the Greek is a little dangerous, as terms can be translated straight across and lose their meaning, but using that sort of translation, this translates to:
God-bearing Virgin (Theotokos), rejoice, grace-filled Mary, the Lord with thee. Praised thou among women, and praised the fruit of thy womb, because it was the Saviour of our souls that thou borest.
The Slavonic version, used in some of the Eastern Rite churches, is:
Богородице дѣво радѹйсѧ
ѡбрадованнаѧ Марїе
Господь съ тобою
благословена ты въ женахъ,
и благословенъ плодъ чрева твоегѡ,
Якѡ родила еси Христа Спаса,
Избавителѧ дѹшамъ нашимъ.
The prayer not only has crossed certain lines following the Great Schism, but it's done the same in regard to the Reformation, being used in the Lutheran churches and in the Anglican Communion.
All of which goes to show something, and among the things shown by Coca-Cola's use is that somebody at Coca-Cola is as clueless on certain things as I am.
Wyoming doesn't need a coward. Wyoming needs a leader, Wyoming needs a voice, Wyoming needs people who are able to stand up to anybody and anyone.
Lynette Gray Bull.
The candidates for Wyoming's lone seat to the Congress, less Harriet Hageman, debated last night.
October 14, 2022
A debate of candidates for the U.S. House, save for Harriet Hageman, occurred last night.
Hageman was castigated by the other candidates for her failure to appear, which is either rude, arrogant, or cowardly. At least one candidate called her actions cowardly.
Hageman needs to be heard from on her failure to debate, and not with the excuse that she has other more effective means of communicating with Wyomingites. So far, more or less, her campaign has been limited to the fact that she supports now subpoenaed Donald J. Trump no matter what, whereas Liz Cheney has the courage of her convictions. Other than having united herself to Trump no matter what, there's nothing really known to distinguish her from Cheney, but the voters really haven't heard much from her otherwise in a widespread way. Public forum's she's attended to date have been principally populated with Hageman Fans/Cheney Haters, so that does not suffice.
How do we answer the question posed in the title of this post?
Well, the short answer is because Harriet Hageman has said "no" to a debate, but that obviously doesn't suffice.
Lawyers, which Hageman is, generally are regarded as liking to debate, or at least being comfortable with it. Indeed, a common unthinking reply to "why should I become a lawyer" or "why did you become a lawyer" is 1) well I like to debate, and to get paid for debating, or the related 2) well I like to argue, and to get paid for arguing. . . In truth, lots of lawyers like to do neither, but Hageman has boosted herself in her campaign by portraying herself as a wild vigilante jurist gunning down the horrible agents of Federal repression.
Harriet Hageman stopping agents of the United States Fish & Wildlife Service.
Truth be known, as a native Wyomingite, a lot of the big evil enemies she cites as having been taken on by her in her role as Litigator of the Golden West are agencies I like. I have a hard time hating, for example, the United States Fish & Wildlife Service. And the two times I've encountered her in a legal setting since 1990 didn't involve the Federal Government at all, although one did involve the super wealthy, who happened to be her client. But I digress.
My point is, here, that abstaining from debating requires some sort of reason, and the reasons are few.
Before we look at those reason, we should consider something.
Hageman hasn't campaigned on any issues at all.
Her campaign was based solely on attacking Liz Cheney for voting to impeach Donald Trump and then going on to be his opponent in Congress. Cheney stood on principles and on that, Hageman used the opportunity to advance herself, and successfully, so far.
In the process, for months she was actually very reluctant, unlike her opponents in the House race, to say that Trump won the election, which he didn't. When pressed, she took refuge in having "questions".
Missed in that response is that it's a lawyer witness answer. It's the classic Clintonesque "It depends on what the meaning of is, is." It's a hair-splitting dodge. Literally every single person on Earth can claim to have questions about the election as life is uncertain, and a person can harbor doubts about literally anything human's do, which doesn't mean they're reasonable. A person can have questions if the sun will explode today, if you will die of a heart attack tonight, if your Welsh Corgi will suddenly remember he descends from wolves and rip your throat out, or whatever.
Bulldog editor, or perhaps as he would have preferred Irish Wolf Hound editor, of the Tribune in its glory days, Phil McCauley. Photo linked in from his 2009 obituary.
Unfortunately, in this day and age, there isn't the Fifth Estate muscle to really run that to ground. The Tribune in the days of Phil McCauley would have harassed her on that to the point of tears, but that didn't of course occur. She had "questions".
Well, anyhow, only at the bitter end, after being endorsed by Trump, and pressed at a Casper Politics In The Park did she relent to fully selling her soul and saying the election had been stolen. She handily beat Cheney on that topic alone, with her enthusiastic supporters believing that she believes what they believe, thereby feeding into their beliefs for her personal advantage.
One is reminded of the classic line from A Man For All Seasons when Richard perjures himself:
Sir Thomas More: Why Richard, it profits a man nothing to give his soul for the whole world... but for Wales?
She's been really quiet since the Primary.
This assumes, of course, that she knows the truth, which frankly is my assumption.
Since that time, and after the primary election, she received a letter from forty-one Wyoming lawyers asking her to stop lying about the election being stolen. Quixotically branded the "Wyoming 41" by the Democratic primary candidate Steve Helling, who ran as a pro Trump Democrat (his campaign made next to no sense and received next to no support), they asked her, in a private letter, to quit lying. Her reply was practically unhinged, accusing them of being part of a nationwide plot to discredit Trumpite candidates by holding them to their oaths. The Wyoming 41 denied that, and frankly the accusation was absurd, and in turn wrote her back, this time with 52 signators on the letter.1 She didn't reply to that one.
And she's not replying much to anyone else in any really visible fashion.
Her current quietness may simply because she knows she's almost certain to be elected, and she just doesn't want to bother. But if that's the case, what would it hurt. Sure, she may very well have no need to debate, but if that's the case, debating can't possibly hurt her.
Or maybe it can.
Lynette Gray Bull is a very effective speaker and preformed very well against Cheney two years ago. At that time, she received 25% of the vote, and she'll receive more this time. It's difficult to imagine her adding another 25% to defeat Hageman, but maybe Hageman is worried that in a debate that will bring the difference between the two into sharp focus, she might.2 3
Since the primary, the January 6 committee has resumed and Trump is going to receive a subpoena to go to the Committee. That will appear on prime-time television, and he'll look like a strange liar. He's going to resist going, of course. Maybe being Trump's anointed will have just as much cache a month from now as it now does, but it's not guaranteed.
But beyond that, maybe Hageman's real career history and the issues that raises would also come up. She's been an enemy by her own statements of the things most Wyomingites love. An ally only of development and use, she's unlikely to be seen as a friend of hunters, fishermen and people who just love the outdoors. A product of southeastern Wyoming, which has generally been a hard core "it's my property stay off" portion of the state, she may well fear what that would mean.
She has the social issues of course, with Gray Bull being much to the left of her, and presumably outside the main from where most Wyomingites are, but she might also recall, given her age, a Wyoming which really wasn't very conservative on those issues. Maybe being pro gun doesn't mean much in a state where the Democrats are also pro gun. Maybe the remaining social issues like abortion and gender issues don't have as much cache with rank and file voters as presumed. Maybe just raising those issues, in a public forum, on a stage in which the one candidate has children and the other doesn't, where one candidate is young, and the other isn't, and where both affect Native items in their dress, but one is indigenous, and the other isn't, creates problems she doesn't care to have come up.
And maybe she's not confident in her in own debating skills in front of an audience that isn't canned against a debater who has no choice but to debate, and who is good at it.
Anyway it's looked at, it's inexcusable. Hageman should debate.
Footnotes:
1. The fifty-two signatures actually reflects more than 52 lawyers actually supporting the overall effort, as some of the original "Wyoming 41" didn't sign the second time as their noted public roles with various institutions was causing those institutions to receive complaints.
2. If Grey Bull doesn't pull in 33% this time, I'd be surprised. That would really be only a modest increase in her toll. Imagining 35%, or even 40%, isn't unreasonable.
3. Hageman has given Grey Bull a gift in that Grey Bull can now accuse Hageman of being an outright coward and Hageman can do little about it. Calling somebody out for a verbal duel can't really be adequately responded to except by engaging in a verbal duel, at which point your prior decline amounts to an admission of sorts.
Hard to believe that we're up to the 12th installment of this thread.
And for many, it's hard to believe that this is a "race". Indeed, for many, for that matter most, of the elected positions in the state, the race is over, with the Republican Primary having determined the winner.
Which is a tragedy for multiple reasons.
Democracy can't really survive in a one party state atmosphere is the primary one, and that's sort of what we have right now. Indeed, rather than one party, which is what we at least facially have, we'd be better off, in terms of elections to have no parties at all, which would be simple enough to do. I've noted it before, but there's really no good reason for party affiliation to take on a semi governmental function, as it has. A case can even be made that it's unconstitutional. Rather, the primary could, and in my view should, simply weed out the lesser candidates so the contest goes on in the fall. If we did that, for example, quite a few of the legislative races that were seemingly decided would be going on to the Fall election, and some of the big statewide races, such as that for Secretary of State, would be down to two candidates.
Another reason it's bad, however, is that it creates the oddity of polarization within the parties themselves, which is occurring in a major way inside the GOP, but which gets sorted out, at least partially, in a non-democratic way. The GOP's central leadership right now, for instance, has been heavily at odds with the leadership in Natrona and Laramie County, with the result being that those two counties, the most populous in the state, have been pretty much sidelined.
This latter feature, I'd note, is a common one for one party systems. Mexico's PRI, for instance, had very conservative and very radically left elements, all within one party. The Soviet Union's Communist party had factions within it. Other examples abound, but the point is that in such systems factions, as George Washington termed them, develop anyhow, but the means of determining who comes out on top is not decided at the ballot box. As we are, of course, a democratic system, they do still get partially sorted out by the voters, but only partially. Most voters have little participation at all with party organizations, if they are in a party at all.
Let's now look at the "races"
United States House of Representatives
Republican Party
As everyone on the entire globe knows, former Cheney supporter Harriet Hageman played Brutus to Cheney's Caesar in the general election.
Et tu, Harriet?
She now goes on to the general election as the overwhelmingly favored candidate. So much so, that she's basically being treated as though she is already elected, which she is not.
We'll address this below, but in order to leap over the top of her former political friend, Hageman boarded the "Trump Train" and acted as his stalking horse. While this seems likely to propel her into the halls of Congress, it also means that Wyoming is going to the bottom of the barrel in the upcoming Congress. If the Republicans regain the House, it means that Hageman will be part of a right wing crowd that will basically be directed by Trump, through Kevin McCarthy. If the Democrats retain control, which is becoming an increasing likelihood, Hageman will have no voice at all.
Not that this seems to matter in the contemporary Congress. The GOP has marginalized itself in this session in hopes of regaining power via Trump. The problem they'll face with that, rather obviously, is they'll be completely indebted to him.
This is raising the issue of whether the GOP of earlier decades is essentially dead, and is now a new type of party, and indeed not the old party at all. Increasingly, this looks like it is in fact the case.1
Democratic Party.
Lynette Gray Bull, who pulled in an impressive performance in the 2020 general election when she ran against Cheney, when put in context (25%) comes back for a second crack at the bat.
Gray Bull, is of Sioux and Arapaho lineage and a resident of the Wind River Indian Reservation, faces long odds, but frankly they may be better this year than last, even though she's a dark horse candidate. Horrified Democrats and Independents, many of whom switched to the GOP to vote for Cheney, will likely roll back to the Democratic Party and vote for Gray Bull. Self-satisfied Republicans, feeling their work is done in the election, may not bother to go to the polls in November. Added to that, horrified Republicans, of which there is a fair number, may go over to Gray Bull on democratic principles, seeing as Hageman is fully invested at the present time as an anti-democratic Christian Nationalist candidate.2
It's been noted that Hageman is really an establishment Republican, but a legitimate question at this point is whether she used to be an establishment Republican and no longer is, or whether the establishment Republicans, including Hageman, have been so duped that there's really no escaping for them. Either situation is more likely that Hageman and the GOP reemerging the party that it once was. I'm not as optimistic as former legislator Tim Stubson is on this score.
Anyhow, some Republicans will vote for Gray Bull as a protest. Some will vote for her on democratic principles. If she took 25% of the vote in 2020, which she did, and Democrats and Independents come out in strength this go around, that alone ought to take her to 30%, which is far below what she would need to win, of course.
However, the gap to winning, an added 20%, isn't really all that much. Hageman, this year, took about 70% of the vote. Of the 30% that voted against her, the question is how many are really upset Republicans.
Operating against this is that Gray Bull is very liberal on social issues, which may cause Republicans to hold their noses and vote for Hageman in spite of their disgust, or to just not vote at all.
Governor
Republican
This race really is over. Mark Gordon won.
Democrat
Theresa Livingston, a former employee of the BLM from Worland won the Democratic primary, but it really doesn't matter.
Secretary of State
Republican
In an upset, Chuck Gray, who has only been in the state for a decade, and who has plenty of strikes against him as a candidate for this office, won due to being the Trump backed far right Christian Nationalist candidate.
Gray, who wasn't universally popular in the legislature, focused on bogus election concerns in his campaign. It's deuce difficult to figure out how the voters thought he was qualified for this office, but he has it.
Democrat
631 Democratic write in votes were cast in the primary for Secretary of State, but that doesn't mean that any of the people written in will advance to the general. If any of them did, unless they're a very surprising candidate, they're going nowhere.
State Treasurer
Republican
Curt Meier won the GOP nomination for a second term.
Democrat
Nobody ran in the Democratic primary. A little over 400 write votes were cast, but once again, it's highly unlikely that any of the write-ins will run, and even more unlikely they would win if they did.
State Auditor
Kristi Racines took this race in the Republican primary, and she seems to be the only candidate in the state that everyone likes.
Superintendent of Public Instruction
Republican
This race saw Delgenfelder beat out recently appointed Schroeder, who was not a popular choice, for this position. This race bucked the hard right trend.
Democrat
Sergio Maldonado advances to the primary as the Democratic candidate, where he was running unopposed. Maldonado is a member of the Northern Arapaho tribe as well as being a Hispanic, so he joins Gray Bull in being in the category of the rare minority running for office. He has a long career in education and has been endorsed by the Wyoming Education Association, one of the few powerful unions in Wyoming.
Other Races
I don't try to cover all the legislative and county races, as I don't know a lot about them as a rule. I'll cover a few here, just as they're of some interest. I'm going to do that, however, in summary form.
The Natrona County Assessors race has proven interesting as incumbent assessor, serving his first term, Matt Keating, lost to Linda Saulsbury. Saulsbury had been an appointed assessor who filled out her popular predecessor's term, but ran into trouble with the staff she inherited. Keating took advantage of that in his race, but Keating has proven to be an unpopular assessor in the county, and Saulsbury took advantage of that.
What probably wasn't obvious to county residents was that assessors statewide ran into a state mandate to correct their undervalued assessments, which was part of a state drive to address budget shortfalls statewide. Be that as it may, Keating's bedside manner on the topic was awful, and this was far from apparent. Late in the race he began to try to point this out, and also took the position that the elevated tax levels could be dropped by municipalities choosing not to impose their full mill levies, a position that would be untenable for the municipalities as it would disqualify them for Federal grants. Three years running of tax challenges due to sometimes bizarrely changed assessments caused people to have enough, and it's been obvious for months that Keating was going to go down in the primary.
What might not have been expected, however, is that he'd take county commissioners out with him as collateral damage. Several challengers campaigned on the commissioners not being able to address this situation, which legally they really can't. Nonetheless, one long serving commissioner fell for the two-year seat and another for the four-year seat. One previously elected commissioners survived to run in November, but he polled the lowest among the survivors and will be joined in the race by a Democratic challenger. It's very far from obvious that he will survive the challenge.
An interesting aspect of this is that, while it was not obvious at the time, the Natrona County Commission was one of the first local bodies in the county to show the rightward tilt of the GOP, having elected a couple of right leaning commissioners in prior years and having one who was able to tilt that way at least in appearance. Now two of them are gone, and a third who was previously a City of Casper Councilman who had fallen in a city election is gone as well. Chances are good that a third will fall. This will leave with the council with new members who are bucking the rightward drift (rush?) trend and should cause the remaining right wing member some concern. At the broken edge of the bottle, the same voters who voted in the county for Gray and Hageman have basically rejected a hands-off approach and voted for a sharply more activist, and indeed activist that will disregard the law, approach. This is interesting in that in the end, Wyoming elections slowly drift towards being like Canadian ones to some degree, with people voting their pocket books.
If all the "less government", "no Federal money" Republicans get their way in the legislature, Wyoming would actually be looking at sharply reduced Federal funds and such grim tasks as paying for our own highways, something we can't do and don't want to try.
August 22, 2022
According to Fremont County Senator Cale Case, a traditional Wyoming Republican conservative, there's an effort being made to find an independent to mount a write-in campaign against Republican Secretary of State nominee Chuck Gray. Nobody has yet been identified to make the attempt.
In order to run on the general ballot as an independent a little over 5,000 signatures would have to be filed with the Secretary of State's office by August 31. That seems rather unlikely.
That wouldn't keep anyone from running a write in campaign, but that's an even more difficult proposition.
Independents do not have a history of electoral success in Wyoming and while Gray is controversial, such a person would face long odds.
August 23, 2022
A press report indicates that a lot of Republicans in the recent race did not vote down ballot.
For instance, 14,000 Republicans did not cast a Secretary of State vote.
This likely explains the hard right turn to some degree. Voters turning out to vote against Cheney out of Trump loyalty likely amounted to a disproportionate percentage of primary voters.
August 23, cont.
In a really unusual turn of events, Cale Case was mounting an effort to draft former legislator Nathan Winters for a run at the Secretary of State's office even though Winter didn't consent. Today the current Secretary of State determined that a potential candidate had to sign off on the effort, which ended this draft campaign.
At the same time, according to the Trib, Republicans are urging Tim or Susan Stubson to run as an independant.
August 28, 2022
The director of communications and policy at the Secretary of State's office has resigned as she does not wish to work for Chuck Gray, who has called into question the work of the office through his assertions that something was wrong with the Wyoming election.
It's beyond question that the Wyoming election was well run and there was no fraud, none of which has kept Gray from running around pretending like something needs to be done to shore up Wyoming's elections. In the words of the resigning individual:
He’s called into question the integrity of this office and now he’s going to run it, and yuck.
He has called into question the integrity of the office through his suggestions.
According to a post on Reddit, which therefore may be wild innuendo and dubious, rumors were circulating prior to the election that there'd be widespread resignations in the office if Gray was elected. That is, we'd note, purely a rumor. But now at least one person has resigned. Even if the rumor was true, however, people generally need their jobs and large scale registrations would be phenomenal.
Having said this, Gray himself may have had an inkling of this, as he said in an earlier PBS debate:
The insiders down there at the Capital, a lot of them don’t want things to improve, I’ve seen the Secretary of State staff work, and I do believe I can work with them towards getting this election integrity vision.
While not greatly familiar with the workings of the office itself, it is more likely than not is nearly self operating with professionals no matter who is in office which means that more likely than not, the only thing the Secretary of State really needs to do is set wider policy. If Gray doesn't lose most of the staff, he can likely spend four years on his "election integrity vision" and not really mess up the work of the office. That would leave him, as he likely knows, a springboard to attempt to become Governor if Gordon does not run for a third term, which he may well do knowing that if he doesn't, the office may fall to the hard right, assuming, which is not a safe assumption, that politics hasn't moved on in the meantime.
If, and it's only an if, and not very likely, Gray faced a large-scale office revolt, however, he may find himself in the same position as Cindy Hill was, who at some point really wasn't able to deal with an office that was in open revolt against her.
August 30, 2022
The write-in deadline fell yesterday, with nobody filing with signatures to run against Chuck Gray, as some had hoped. There were write in candidates certified, however, for several of the legislative races.
August 31, 2022
Secretary of State Ed Buchanan will assume the judgeship he was appointed to in mid-September, and step
down from his current position at that time. This means an interim Secretary of State will be appointed to oversee this year's election.
September 1, 2022
In Alaska, Democrat Mary Peltola defeated a slate of candidates in a special election for Congressman from that state. Sarah Palin was one of the contestants.
The race was to fill the seat of the deceased Don Young, so the position is, obviously, pretty temporary, but presumably gives Peltola an edge as the incumbent in November.
The race was notable for several reasons, including that Peltola, who is Yup’ik, will become the first Native Alaskan Congressman. But more than that, it's the first ranked choice election in Alaska's history, the system, which disregards party, having just been adopted by Alaska's voters.
A bill in a Wyoming legislative committee proposes to adopt the same system, which is more democratic than the party primary system the state now has. This result would suggest that when unrestrained by party, voters will in fact cast a a wider net.
Defeated Sarah Palin complained about the new system in the election itself, and railed against it after being defeated.
September 6, 2022
The Wyoming GOP, noting that if he leaves on September 15 as he has indicated that he will it will mean that his appointed successor shall have mere weeks to prepare for administering the General Election, has asked Ed Buchanan to remain in office to the end of his term.
In this context, that is not an unreasonable request and, indeed, this should have been taken into account as soon as he indicated that he was pursuing a judgeship.
September 7, 2022
Secretary of State Buchanan declined the GOP's request.
I'm frankly surprised, and I also frankly think this entire episode has not been well thought out.
September 10, 2022
The Tribune reports that November's general election shall have the highest number of unaffiliated and third party candidates on the ballot since 1998.
House District 8, in which the notable mainstream Republican Dave Zwonitzer is running for reelection, but in a newly formed district in Laramie County, is one of them. In that district, Independent Brenda Lyttle is his only opponent. The increasing discord in the mostly Republican legislature, which has split into two branches, motivated her run as an Independent, although Zwonitzer has one of the most dignified presentations in the legislature Medicare expansion and education funding are her issues, so she's basically ironically running with what would normally be moderate Republican or Democratic stance.
Here I hope that Zwonitzer, who has been an influential intelligent voice in the legislature, wins reelection.
Bob Strobel is running in northwest Wyoming's House District 22. Stroble represents himself as a lifelong Republcan, but he's unyielding on the public lands remaining in Federal hands. I don't know anything about that district, but on that basis alone, I hope that Strobel wins.
Three Constitution Party candidates are running. The Constitution Party, at least in my view, tends to have a reading of the Constitution that uniquely interprets it by disregarding what it actually says, in support of a far right Quasi Christian Nationalist position. I'd thought they'd gone away, but they're running more candidates this year than ever.
A record number of Libertarians are also running for state solon positions.
Which takes us to the Governor's and House races. We haven't covered the third parties at all, and we now should. The Trib reports the third parties as having candidates for both, but we're only seeing that for the House of Representatives. Having said that, the Trib is probably right, but the candidates probably haven't secured sufficient signatures yet to appear on the general ballot.
United States House of Representatives
Republican Party
Harriet Hageman. Hageman is the Trump endorsed flag bearer for the those who felt that Cheney betrayed the state by not getting on the Trump train. She'll go into the race with more wild far right GOP populist enthusiasm, more moderate GOP contempt and more inflated expectations of any candidate in the state's history.
Democratic Party.
Lynette Gray Bull, who pulled in an impressive performance in the 2020 general election when she ran against Cheney, when put in context (25%) comes back for a second crack at the bat, as a darkhorse candidate, but with better odds this time than previously as she'll secure a fair number of disgruntled Republicans and horrified independents.
Constitution Party
Melissa Selvig, who ran on the Republican ticket to the far right before correctly assessing her ticket as doomed, has signed up for a doomed effort as the Constitution Party's candidate for the House.
Independent
Casey Hardison is a gadfly candidate who is also running for the President of the United States in 2024 for the Democratic Republican Party. A chemist, he has a series of drug convictions.
September 13, 2022
Senator Cale Case will be the subject of a censure vote by the Republican Central Committee, which will also ask him to drop his Republican affiliation.
This is the second time Case has faced a censure vote for being true to his values. He earlier this year was censured by the Fremont County GOP before going on to win reelection with a 10 point margin.
This time it's because of his open opposition to Chuck Gray and the election stolen lie that Gray espoused in the primary election. Case, a longtime legislator and formally one of the most conservative members of the body, has openly been backing the bill to remove election certification from the Secretary of State on the basis that Gray is an election denier. The Republican Party censure resolution refers to this as an abuse of power, which is somewhat ironic given the putative threat Gray represents in his role. Case also sought to have an independent run against Gray. Case has indicated that, having been through this process once already, he isn't really worried about what the GOP Central Committee does.
September 14, 2022
GOP Congressional candidate Harriet Hageman has refused a PBS offer to host a debate with her opponent, Lynette Grey Bull.
Boo hiss.
The refusal comes across as chicken, chickenshit, and disrepectful.
Grey Bull took about 25% of the vote in the last election against Cheney, at which point most of the people who now hate Cheney with the red hot passion of a thousand burning suns swooned at her inherited GOP presence. If she too 25% under those circumstances she likely holds to take more now. The question is whether Hageman figures that she's already been crowned and need not lower herself to debate her Democratic candidate, or whether she fears debating a candidate who isn't welded to Donald Trump might increase that candidates odds.
Anyway a person looks at it, this is already a symbol of how those Wyomingites who haven't agreed to work towards the leader are likely to be treated in some quarters.
Park County's GOP has passed a resolution supporting Chuck Gray and denouncing efforts to restrict the Secretary of State's authority over elections.
On Gray, as readers here know, there is a bill in the legislature to remove election supervision from the Secretar of State's office and vest it in a new non partisan commission. Gray released a statement condemning the bill, not surprisingly, aiming it as he tends to do at imaginary "big government" insiders. More specifically, he stated:
Republicans across Wyoming correctly see Zwonitzer’s and (Case’s) effort for what it is — a couple of big-government insiders who are shamelessly ignoring the will of voters and our right to have our elected officials represent us.
There might be some merit to that, although Zwonitzer had a good reply, but it raises the question of why on earth the Secretary of State's office is an elected office. Indeed, the same question applies to the State Auditor's office and the State Treasurer's office. Whatever the original reason is, it's long since become obsolete and most years a high percentage of voters, if asked, don't have any idea who any of these candidates actually are. More on that in a seperate post.
Gray, of course, was elected because he was Trump backed and he ran around in his campaign spreading the election lie myth, so he was in fact elected in the primary as a contestant, the only one, to prevent a myth that didn't happen from reoccuring. That, however, brings up the interesting point that if Gray is really worried about this, he ought to support the law, as it would make our already really secure election super safe.
September 23, 2022
The news reports (but not the Edition of the Trib, which was replaced today with the E-edition of Beatrice Nebraska's newspaper) that a group of Wyoming lawyers, including some very prominent ones (the outgoing and elect State Bar Presidents, at least one prominent retired judge, a former Attorney General of the State of Wyoming) wrote to Harriet Hageman complaining of her misrepresenting the election as stolen and pointing out what they state is her ethical obligations as a lawyer to tell the truth.
Hageman's reaction has been to publically publish a counter to their letter which might best be characterized as absurd, asserting the lawyers are part of a left wing national movement to attack conservative candidates. Her reaction, therefore, to be told not to lie, was to lie.
Hageman, as a politician, is now past the State Bar as a concern and into the hall of Congress where lying is a long practiced tradition. But the evolution of the candidate, from a quiet Cheney supporter, to a Cheney challenger who at first wouldn't call the election stolen, to one who now heavily leans into having "questions" and implies the election is stolen, to one who won't debate her opponent and who reacts to her fellow bar members private letter with a public assertion of wild conspiracy has been remarkable.
The writing lawyers who were in turn interviewed by the Trib were measured in their response, simply siting their obligation to uphold the truth, with only the former AG signatory showing some real ire, in which he also noted the lies more directly advanced by Chuck Gray.
September 26, 2022
All three of the names forewarded to Governor Gordon for interim Secretary of State are far right figures aligned with the views of Chuck Gray.
September 28, 2022
Lynette Gray Bull, Democratic candidate for the U.S. House in Wyoming, publicly asked for Liz Cheney's endorsement via Twitter.
The request was based on Cheney's open statement that she's help anti Trump candidates even if they are Democrats.
September 30, 2022
Karl Allred, who is a gas plant manager who unsuccessfully ran for the legislature with a Harriet Hageman endorsement, will be the interim Secretary of State.
Applicants for the office included some who had direct experience with it, but they were not appointed to be finalists. The office deals principally with business matters and has been highly respected. It has a very professional staff who can likely carry that forward, but there have been rumors that they'll largely resign rather than work under Chuck Gray.
Allred enters the office an unknown, but one who is likely less extreme than the other two finalists. He fits into the mold right now, however, of the GOP sending individuals who are fully bought into the populist Trump wing of the party. It's remarkable that individuals who were clearly more qualified were passed over. The state has reason to worry about this trend, which it has now endured a second time, although the last one, with the Superintendent of Education seems to hae worked out. Notably, the voters did not choose that person for reelection.
October 1, 2022
Following up on yesterday's entry, Allred it turns out has a string of failed legislative bids. He was one of the inidividuals who sued Governor Matt Mead over the capitol improvement contract and he was one of the conservative candidates who violated the University of Wyoming's open carry prohibition in an attempt to challenge its constitutionality. Indeed, a recent photo of him addressing the Central Committee depicts him carrying a sidearm at that event.
The Governor's announcement, which I cannot find, was "pointedly" short, according to the press.
Representative Mike Yin, D Jackson, emailed to the Tribune that none of the choices presented to the Governor were reasonable ones, which seems to be borne out by the names of applicants the Central Committee passed over who had experience relevant to the job. Allred was seeingly the least extreme of the three. On September 17, prior to his selection, Allred had called Yin a "flippin idiot" who needed to be gotten rid of.
October 2, 2022
The lawyers castigated by Harriet Hageman after they wrote her letter about truthful representations replied to her public reply to their private letter, once again pointing out that lawyers have a duty to respect the decisin of courts. More signed the second letter, than the first.
Somewhat missed in the story on the first letter is that it was a private letter, not a public one. Hageman published it, associating it with a conspiracy theory.
October 3, 2022
Both China and Russia appear set to try to interfere in the elections, Russia by trying to cast doubt on US election integrity.
It can't help but be noted that the GOP has done a fine job of doing that itself without Russian help, although some of the prinicpal figures in that, such as Donald Trump and Tucker Carson, have very odd affinities with Putin.
The FEC has notified the Hageman campaign that it has failed to meet reporting regulations.
Republican Senate Majority Leader Ogden Driscoll faces a write in campaign now from his right for a defeated candidate from the primary. The challenger, Roger Connet, hasn't endorsed or discouraged the campaign.
October 7, 2022
In a development showing just how odd this election year really is, the Uinta County GOP is endorsing a write-in candidate, and "enthusiastically" over their own primary candidate victor for House District 19.
The move by the county's GOP committee was not received with universal welcome.
October 9, 2022
Lynette Grey Bull forcefully campaigned for Liz Cheney's endorsement in a rally in Casper yesterday.
Footnotes:
1. See:
Fromer legislator Stubson's position on this is very admirable and he's been an outspoken champion of Cheney this election cycle, but he supported Ted Cruz in the Cruz campaign, which is some ways was a portent of things to come. As a legislator, he also supported the study bill that was to look at trying to get the Federal lands transferred to Wyoming, which also fits in to the far right list of ticket items. He is not in that camp, but this illustrates in a way how we slid down this slippery slope.
Former Speaker of the House in Wyoming Tom Lubnau very much saw this coming and tried to warn everyone to no avail.
2. It can certainly be debated whether or not Hageman really is a Christian Nationalist, which is not the same thing, we'd note, as being a Christian or observant Christian. Rather, it's the theme that the GOP is leaning heavily into.
We dealt with the rising phenomenon of Christian Nationalism recently, but the definition of the movement is becoming much clearer. We'll expand on that shortly.
Wyoming's Haub School of Environment and Natural Resources received an $1,000,000 to establish an Intentional Wildlife Conservation Chair. The purpose is to boost the pursuit of careers in that area.
The fund will be named for John L. Koprowski , Dean of the school, following his retirement.
Sasha, age 9, with prosthetic giving the Ukrainian trident salute. She lost her arm due to a Russian attack.Whatever Russia's excuses for invading a neighboring country that doesn't wish to be part of it may be, taking off the arms of children as part of the cause is beyond any excuse. Live URL Link from: https://twitter.com/DefenceU
Russian propaganda is attempting to portray Ukraine's long anticipated offensive has having already failed, which it has not.
The Ukrainian government, in contrast, is observing operational silence, and requesting that media sources abstain from predicting Ukrainian moves.
September 2, 2022
Afghanistan
The Taliban has arrested a woman for defamation for accusing her husband, the former Taliban interior minister, of forced marriage and rape.
The charge by the entity which the United States allowed to take power due to Donald Trump's Doha agreement followed by our withdrawal under President Biden was based on the Taliban position that nobody is allowed to defame the Taliban.
September 2, cont
Israel struck a Syrian runway yesterday.
September 3, 2022
China/Taiwan
The United States is selling $1,100,000,000 in arms to Taiwan
September 5, 2022
Russo Ukrainian War
The Ukrainians liberated Vysokopilla in Kherson Oblast. Gains were also made in the Donetsk Oblast. The Ukrainians have had a news blackout on their operations, and it appears clear that the announced successes are just part of a collection of wider successes they have not yet felt comfortable in publicly stating.
September 6, 2022
Russia has postponed a referendum on Kherson joining Russia for "security reasons".
September 7, 2022
Russia is getting ready to purchase rockets and artillery shells from North Korea.
The fact that Russia is in the position of buying this sort of ordinance suggest that it is either seriously depleted its stocks of the same, or that it is worried about doing so and seeking to use up newly purchased stores so as to have a reserve ammunition supply for other contingencies, real or imagined.
Ukraine retook territory near Kharkiv.
September 9, 2022
While it's not at all clear what's going on, it suddenly seems to be the case that the Ukrainians are advancing all over the front. Fighting has been hard in Kherson, but there are reports today of advancing in the north and the center, with some of these reports coming from Russian sources.
It's too early to really predict what's going on, but if this keeps up, the Russians are in a very bad spot.
September 10, 2022
What seemed to be promising local advances a couple of days ago is developing into open field running by the Ukrainians, who are now outsmarting and outfighting the Russians darned near everywhere.
Ukraine has retaken Izium in the Kharkiv region, with the Russians openly retreating and admitting as much. This region of Ukraine wasn't even imagined to be the focus of what is turning out to be an effective broad front offensive. They're closing on Sievierodonetsk, whose loss in June was regarded as a major Ukrainian defeat. Some reports had the Russians deploying helicopters to intercept their own fleeing men as they attempted, and failed, to reinforce Izium.
It's still too early to tell, but things are beginning to take on an appearance of a systemic Russian collapse.
September 11, 2022
Situation as of September 11, 2022. By Viewsridge - Own work, derivate of Russo-Ukraine Conflict (2014-2021).svg by Rr016Missile attacks source:BNO NewsTerritorial control sources:Template:Russo-Ukrainian War detailed map / Template:Russo-Ukrainian War detailed relief mapISW, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=115506141
Further reports now reveal that the Russian withdrawal from Izium is a disorderly route, with retreating troops mixing with an attempt to reinforce the southern Donbas. Ukraine has retaken Velikiy Burluk which puts them with 15 kilometers of the Russian border.
September 13, 2022
Russo-Ukrainian War
Russia has suspended sending volunteer units into Ukraine, apparently being concerned that they are not dependable.
Ukraine is making advances in the Kherson Olbast.
29 additional municipalities have signed a petition asking Putin to resign, making the number 47.
Armenia/Azerbaijan
The countries have fought two prior wars over areas they assert a right to control, with the last one going badly for Armenia. Yesterday there were clashes between their forces.
September 14, 2022
The Russians are engaging in some serious spin, acknowledging defeat in northern Ukraine while also attempting to blame anyone other than Putin.
Russian authorities in Crimea have urged their families to flee Crimea, and there have been home sales and family evacuations by Russian authorities there.
September 16, 2022
Pope Francis in interview on September 15 regarding providing weapons to Ukraine by third party powers:
This is a political decision which it can be moral, morally acceptable, if it is done under conditions of morality … Self-defence is not only licit but also an expression of love for the homeland,. . . Someone who does not defend oneself, who does not defend something, does not love it. Those who defend . . . love it.”
September 17, 2022
Ukrainian advances into territory that has been occupied by Russia has revealed evidence of torture and murder by the Russians.
Putin has threatened increased attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure in retaliation for Ukrainian partisan attacks on Russian property in the territory occupied by Russia, taking a page, more or less, out of Hitler's book, to the extent he's not already operating from it. He might want to skip to the last chapter and see how that worked out for Hitler.
Ukraine is warning of false flag operations in Russian occupied areas over the next few days.
September 18, 2022
Ukrainian troops continue to advance in the north.
By Viewsridge - Own work, derivate of Russo-Ukraine Conflict (2014-2021).svg by Rr016Missile attacks source:BNO NewsTerritorial control sources:Template:Russo-Ukrainian War detailed map / Template:Russo-Ukrainian War detailed relief mapISW, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=115506141
September 21, 2022
A long feared mobilization of Russian forces may be starting to occur in the wake of recent Russian defeats.
What's held Russia back from full mobilization, a step urged by Russian milbloggers and some parliamentarians, isn't known, but it may be the fear that Russian reservists just won't show up, or that the move will spark large scale discontent.
300,000 reservists will be called into active Russian service.
Putin also vaguely threatened to use nuclear weapons if Ukraine continues its efforts to reclaim its territory.
And Putin is also holding "referendums" in the territory which Russia occupies nearly immediately, which will have the guaranteed result of resulting in Russian annexation of the same.
This step takes the world deeper into the war, not further from it. Essentially, Putin is placing Russia in a position in which it will be committing its reserves to an effort which will now be claiming to defend its own territory. Putin, and maybe Russia itself, will not be able to back out of this, and Ukraine and the rest of the non toady world will not be able to recognize it.
It'll be interesting to see what the mobilization accomplishes. It's effectively a massive admission of Russian military weakness. Russia has the numbers, but the numbers haven't worked in their favor so far. With discontent on the war growing inside of Russia, Putin may be going down the same path as Czar Nicholas II.
September 22, 2022
It now appears that the Russian call up of reservists shall be in stages and will not have an immediate effect on the war in Ukraine, as long as Ukraine continues to act swiftly. That is, the impact shall not be for many months.
While at the 300,000 level, this should raise some questions on whether the call-up is to offset losses. It really isn't clear what Russia's combat loss has been.
Russia, like many other countries, only requires a year of service for conscripts. While this practice is common, for the most part it leaves those trained in that fashion with incomplete military skills that wane fairly quickly. Called up reservist, therefore, are likely to need months of training if they're to be combat worthy troops, although Russia has certainly seemed to be willing to commit troops with less than adequate combat skills.
The British Ministry of Defense has stated that Russia has run out of willing volunteers.
Protests in Russia resulted in 1,200 arrests. Reports have held that flights out of the country have received an enormous boost as men eligible to be called into service have sought flights out.
September 23, 2022
Russia's partial mobilization is spawning domestic discontent and protests, which in turn has caused the Russians to conscript protesters as part of its reaction. Rather obviously, the tactic of conscripting those bold enough to protest against the war isn't likely to produce combat worthy troops. Indeed, at some point, it has the effect of arming and training those who are likely to turn their guns on their government.
Russia has also gone beyond calling trained reservists into service in other ways, now conscripting men who have never served and actually, in at least one instance, using a press-gang university on students to drag them directly from classes for services, something directly contrary to a statement exempting students from this levy and a shocking reversion to very primitive conscription methods.
In response, some Russian federal regions are passing laws prohibiting reservists from leaving their places of permanent residence in order to attempt to keep men from fleeing service. Reports also indicate that the Russians are disproportionately conscripting non Russians.
All of this would suggest a Russia much more at trouble at home, and with much wider opposition to the war, than previously expected. The chances of building an effective replacement army under these circumstances is slight. Moreover, this must be obvious to Russia's allies, such as China, demonstrating the nation is rotting from the edifice.
September 28, 2022
Russia's sham elections were held in the last couple of days with the predictable results being that votes in the Russian occupied portions of Kherson, Zaporizhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk supposedly were overwhelmingly in favor of annexation into Russia. That will now occur within the next couple of days.
It won't end the war, certainly, but now Russia will have legal cover for deploying conscripts into the war. Conscription, however, is going very badly. Oddly enough, Russia is conscripting outright opponents to the war, which is not likely to result in willing soldiers.
Two undersea explosions occurred on the idled Nord Stream pipeline.
Accomplishing an underwater strike such as this would require some expertise to pull off and there are suspicions, not yet proven, that Russia itself did it. Ukraine has claimed just that. The hard thing to figure out, however, is what the goal of such an attack would be.
September 29, 2022
Russo Ukrainian War
Ukrainian forces are about to take Lyman and are generally advancing, although not necessarily rapidly, everywhere along the front.
Russian forces are now so depleted that they're being supplied with replacements out of the newly called up men who have very little training. In one instances of this that hit the news, a Russian commander informs his troops they'll be given a uniform, body armor, and a rifle, and nothing else, including no medical supplies.
The U.S. is providing an additional $1.1B in aid to Ukraine.
Additional leaks have been found in the Nord Stream pipeline, which is now more or less officially viewed as having been hit by sabotage. German sources feel the damage is irreparable although, due to subsequent pipeline construction elsewhere, the loss may not be as significant as it might at first appear.
The mystery of the destruction remains, given the illogic involved in hitting it. For the most part, most of the attention is focused on the Russians, but some conspiracy theorist of various stripes have accused the US, which certainly did not do it. U.S. right wing commentator Tucker Carson basically took the Russian line and suggested, if not outright stated, that the U.S. was responsible for the act, and on the same day, Donald Trump absurdly offered to attempt to broker a peace. Not too surprisingly, loyal Trump rank and file accolades praised the former President's ridiculous offer and some have adopted the absurd U.S. did it thesis.
Iraq/Iran
The Iranian air force struck Kurdish targets in Iraq in retaliation for Kurdish support of Iranian women protestors.
The protests in Iran broke out after a young woman was killed after Kurdish Iranian Mahsa Amini died in police detention after being taken into custody for wearing her hajib incorrectly. Iran has religious police that enforce the Iranian interpretation of Islam's religious behavior rules, something that is not unique to Iran in the Islamic world. Women in Iran have chaffed for years under the strict rules applied in Iran and have now engaged in days of protests over the event. Protestors have openly defied the rules in their protests, and some have now called for the overthrow of the Islamic Republic.
At the same time, the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has been absent from the public, fueling speculation that he may not be able to return to his duties following bowel surgery in early September.
September 30, 2022
NATO declared the destruction of the Nord Stream pipelines sabatage and warned that it would regard any attacks upon the infrastructure of its member states as an attack upon the member nations.
Ukrainian forces have enveloped Lyman.
October 1, 2022
Russia declared itself to have annexed Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia yesterday. In his speech he engaged in nuclear saber rattling.
Ths move grossly complicates finding a peaceful solution to the war as Russia, which is losing, will now claim that its defending its own territory even though it will be largely alone in the world in recognizing its claims. Putin will not be able to give up ground he's annexed, so at this point the war can largely only really end with Putin deposed.
The current borders in Europe, it might be noted, are those that largely came into existance post World War Two. Ukraine's post 1917 borders were larger than the current ones by a signficant extent:
By Spiridon Ion Cepleanu - History Atlases available., CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=17831314
As the map above demonstrates, the real territorial growth of Ukraine was at the expense of Poland, post Second World War, but that change also featured the Soviets expelling Poles to the west, and in what is now Poland, expelling Germans also to the west. And the territory Ukraine aquired at that time was in fact largely claimed by Ukrainians in 1918. Indeed, that region of Ukraine had been fought over between the two countries, with the Poles also seeking to claim quite a bit of land to its post 1918 eastern boundaries. The only signficant part of modern post Soviet collapse Ukraine that had not been part of Ukraine until after World War Two is Crimea, which traditionally had neither a Ukrainian or Russian population, something the Russians changed through heavy migration into the region. Ukraine did claim it, however, in 1917.
Ukraine did claim lands much to the east of its current boundaries following 1917, and indeed even much further to the east of what this map shows based on Ukrainian settlements of Russian regions to the east.
While it won't do it, Ukraine would have just about as much right to annex the territories it lost to the Soviet Union as its own as Russia does to do the reverse.
Russia is also blaming the US for the Nord Stream gas severance event, a baseless conspiracy theory. Russia is the nation most likely to have sabataged the line.
October 1, 2022
The Russians have withdrawn from Lyman.
Below, by the way, is a map that's linked in to its original source showing the percentages of the vote in current Ukraine that voted for independence from Russia in 1991.
As shown, even Crimea had over 50% of its population wanting out of Russia.
It's also worth remebering that the newly free Ukraine was a nuclear state. It gave those weapons up following a Western promise to guaranty its freedom.
October 3, 2022
It appears that the Ukrainians may have broken through at Kherson.
While, once again, its too early to tell, this is beginning to have the apperance of being a generalized Russian collapse.
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