Odds

A prediction, or rather an estimate based on odds.

I think there's a 55% chance that Donald Trump will not be the Republican candidate by November, or even by mid October.

No, I don't think that some random wacko is going to assassinate him.  

Rather, I'm going back to what I always thought, that one of the two candidates would depart due to the impact of time and mortality, and add to it.

On mortality, Trump really doesn't look well, when you see him as he actually looks, which is rarely.  Most of the time we see him in a baggy blue suit with his strange orange spray on tan and back comb over in evidence, a look we're so used to that we have come to regard it as normal, which it is not.  But if you see him golfing, which we do occasionally, you see him as he really is. A fat old pasty man.  He looks his age and doesn't look great.  If a guy looking like that died tomorrow, you wouldn't be surprised.

Added to that, however, is the growing evidence of mental decline.

Trump is under an enormous amount of stress.  If you've ever been familiar with somebody entering dementia, routine can keep them going for a long time.  Trump has had a surprisingly consistent routine since 2020.  The election was stolen has been his mantra.  Joe Biden is a crook and the worst President of all time.  He repeats it over and over, and he still is.

Now, however, Biden has mounted up and is fading into the sunset.  Trump, in turn, has entered the part of the map labeled "here there be dragons" and doesn't know where he is. It's showing in his behavior, which has become increasingly odd.

Indeed, his behavior is now so odd we're completely acclimated to it and pay it little regard.  In more or less controlled scripted moments, which seem to occur during the day time, he delivers a routine rambling speech, often with a flat affect.  He tends to go badly off script into the bizarre.  In interviews he can go way off script.

When he does, odd things show up again and again.  He's really smart, he tells us. . . a lot.  He draws big crowds, bigger than his opponents. . . 

It's weird.

At night, now, he seems to have taken to Twitter and the tweets are often really weird.

I'm not a psychiatrist but it looks to me like the stress an anxiety of the race are getting to him, and organically.

Hence my added prediction.  I don't think this nearly 80 year old who has avoided exercise his entire life can keep this up.  It'll kill him, or it'll render his mid mush to the point it can't be ignored.

And it'll happen before the end of October.

I'm not saying any of this, I'd note, as some sort of wish.  I've seen more than my share of death, and I've seen dementia.  We all die, but dementia isn't something we all endure and I don't wish that on anyone.