Now is the winter of our discontent.
William Shakespeare, Richard III.
And so we go headlong into the caucuses and primaries, which will start in mere days. The Iowa Caucus for the GOP is on January 15. The New Hampshire Primary Election is on January 23 (although a Democratic spat keeps Biden off that one).
Candidates can be seen from our prior editions, but the big question, right now, is whether Donald Trump will be found to be disqualified from running in the election and the GOP nomination go to somebody else, or whether he'll be the surprisingly strong candidate against incumbent Joe Biden. There are a surprising number of Republicans running, but the race is down to Trump, trailed by Hailey, DeSantis, and Christie. In the Democratic field, only Biden is really a serious candidate.
Trump was found to be ineligible to run in Colorado by that state's supreme court, although that state's Secretary of State bizarrely is putting him back on the ballot until the U.S. Supreme Court either takes up his appeal there or it doesn't.
Maine has likewise found him ineligible to run, which is also being appealed by Trump.
And so a defective process may give the nation two candidates it does not want.
Locally, in the local Senatorial race, John Barrasso, even though he has not yet officially declared, is running against Reid Rasner, who is running a doomed campaign to the right.
No Democrat has declared.
In the House race, nobody has declared at all, but presumably Harriet Hageman will run for reelection.
January 4, 2023
From Reuters:
WASHINGTON, Jan 4 (Reuters) - Businesses tied to Republican former U.S. President Donald Trump received at least $7.8 million in foreign payments from 20 countries during his four years in the White House, Democratic congressional investigators said Thursday.
Of course, it'd be asking too much for Republicans accusing Joe Biden of impropriety due to his son's business dealings to now focus on Donald Trump, or to cease the focus in this area on Biden.
Cont:
Harriet Hageman announced her bid to be reelected with the release of a video:
January 5, 2024
Speaking of videos, somebody made this pro Trump video that Trump apparently shared on his social media:
Worship of a person to this degree is absolutely frightening, when you consider that some actually think this way.
And that Trump would share is appalling.
Cont:
The United States Supreme Court will hear oral arguments in the certified Colorado case on February 8, after the Iowa Caucus. It's likely to take up the Maine case as well and combine them.
The 2nd Judicial District in Wyoming dismissed the lawsuit challenging Trump's position on the Wyoming ballot, as well as Cynthia Lummis' today. It might as well be mentioned that if the court in Wyoming had allowed the challenge to go forward, the presiding judge would undoubtedly have stood a good chance of losing her seat when she came up for retention. I'm not saying that was the basis of her decision, but almost any Wyoming jurist would have had to have that in mind. It'll be interesting to see if that decision is appealed, but my guess is that it will be.
January 10, 2024
Wyoming Senator John Barrasso has endorsed Trump.
I suppose this is no surprise, but it is an example of how politicians feel compelled to compromise what they really believe. I suspect that Barrasso has little love for Trump in reality, but feels that he must do to this or give some ammo to his competitor from the right.
Cont:
Not only did Barrasso endorse Trump, he's the first membership of the Senate leadership to do so. McConnell declined to do so recently.
Cont:
I would rather lose by telling the truth than lie in order to win
Chris Christie.
And so the last actual Republican dropped out of the race.
January 11, 2024
January 13, 2024
Cynthia Lummis has now endorsed Trump as well. No surprise.
June 15, 2024
Martin Luther King Day
Wyoming Equality Day
Iowa Caucus Day
On This Week, a Democratic member of Congress noted that Republican politicians who had opposed Trump were now rushing to endorse him, least they meet the ire of the MAGA crowed.
Probably two of the recent Wyoming endorsements fit that category.
Tonight at 7:00 p.m. the Iowa Caucus's will open in frigid weather, apparently not taking note that this is at least technically a day off for a lot of people (it isn't for most people). Gathering at 7:00 p.m. in order to choose a candidate for your party will be weighed, by many, against the agony of going out in the cold.
That's the only hope for those running against Trump.
It cannot help but be noted that the Iowa Caucus, while it probably made sense at one time, emphasizes the antiquated and downright stupid way the US picks its President. States position themselves to be first to pick, which none of them have the right to be. At least caucuses are party elections, not funded (I think) by the state. Most states have primaries which are party elections on the state's dime, which isn't just, and is arguably, in my view, unconstitutional.
To add to things, this year, Trump's ability to even hold office is presently in front of the United States Supreme Court.
Given all of this, I'm going to close this issue out with a few predictions, giving percentages.
I think Trump will take Iowa, and I'd give that a 100% chance. Biden will of course take Iowa.
I'm giving Haley a 60% chance of taking New Hampshire. New Hampshire doesn't like to look like Iowa's lapdog and it is a East Coast state with a history of acting independently.
Irrespective of that, if I'm wrong on the matters noted below, there's a 75% chance that Trump is the GOP nominee and a 100% chance Biden is the Democratic nominee.
Now, here's where some will think we're off the rails.
I think there's a 60% chance the United States Supreme Court will find Trump an insurrectionist unqualified to hold office.
When they do that, if they do, there will be a massive outbreak of right wing violence across the country.
If they do that, Haley will be the nominee.
I feel there's a 55% chance that Trump, who is an old man, who looks unhealthy, and who in my view is showing signs of dementia, will die before the election. He's showing signs of decline every day.
If he dies, and I think he will, Haley will be the nominee.
I feel there's a 40% chance that Biden will pass away of natural causes before the election.
If he dies, and I don't think he will, I have no idea who the nominee will be.
In a Biden v. Trump rematch, Trump will win. I don't want him to, but he will.
In a Biden v. Haley match, Haley will win. The Democrats seem incapable of accepting that they're going with an unelectable candidate.
Assuming that Biden and Trump are the nominees, at some point after Super Tuesday, there's a 55% chance that somebody announces a major third party run. I'm not sure who it will be, but Christie, Manchin and Cheney are all figures in that. My guess is that it will be Manchin for President, with Christie as VP.
Everyone always states that no third parties ever win, even the GOP itself was a third party that in fact won, displacing the dying Whigs. A third party here would displace the dying GOP. I'd give a third party as 60% chance of winning.
Given the furor he stirs up, there are a lot of things I fear this election many feature that I'm not going to post, as I don't want them to look like something I'm endorsing by mentioning them. Indeed, I'm afraid that they'll happen and desperately hope they do not.
This will close this edition. The next one will come out on the morning after, so to speak, of the Iowa Caucus.
People should pray for the nation.
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