Coal in the ICU

 

 Mine haul truck on display in Wright Wyoming.

Wyoming has had a long association with coal. The first coal mines in the state date back to the Union Pacific Railroad which, coming through as it did during the 1860s, needed sources of coal to fuel its trains.  Mining near the railroad started contemporaneously with the laying down of the tracks.

Coal's been in ill health for quite awhile, and it's been suffering of late along with petroleum oil.  More than oil really.  This makes a big difference to the state, as the state is funded on mineral severance taxes which have accordingly been declining.  And it makes a big difference to coal mining towns, like Gillette.  And, of course, the decline in coal fuels some delusional thinking in which "if only" the Federal government wasn't doing this or that, the market would recover.

Well, in today's Tribune, there's a double whammy for coal.

First, Peabody, the legendary coal mining concern, is laying off 250 people in Gillette from a corporate office its closing there. That's a significant thing for Peabody to do, as the area features a number of huge coal mines, albeit ones that have been suffering lately.  For an outfit with a history that is coal to signal that it's giving up on its local office is not only a personal disaster for the people who worked there, it's a huge signal of what going on in coal.

If that signal wasn't clear enough, also in today's paper we learn that Rocky Mountain Power, a large regional electrical generation company, has determined to switch away from coal over the next couple of decades. For a power company centered in a coal producing region that owns many coal fired power plants, and its own mines, that's a huge decision.  It will be going to alternative means of generation, such as wind.  It's announcement wasn't that it's "supplementing", or something, its coal fired plants with alternative means of generation, but that it actually anticipates replacing them.  That's a pretty stunning position assuming it was accurately reported, for a regional power generator.

This would seem to be a pretty clear indicator that coal's in a long term decline.  And with that, so are the state's revenues.  It's not as if coal is going to disappear, but it does seem to be slowly reducing in significance with no likely reversal of that trend in sight.  And that reduction in significance has been fairly dramatic and observable.

The expansion of coal mines into the Powder River Basin is something that really came on during my lifetime, and it built Gillette into what it currently is.  The decline will likely occur over the rest of my life time, but that it would become so evident, while not really a surprise, is fairly dramatic. 

I should note that it's hard to write something like this and not sound as if you are coming off as "anti coal".  In reality, however, I haven't said anything of the sort. When I was a geology student, eons ago, my specialty was in coal, simply because it seemed stable while petroleum was in decline.  But I was wrong about that stability, and the changes we now see are ones that I've been predicting for some time.  Being right about a trend tends to be confused with being partisan in a debate, but it isn't.

 

Geology classroom, University of Wyoming, 1986.